Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Although the fundamentals of apples are strong, with low cold - storage apple inventory and high cost of May contracts, the upward momentum and time for the May contract are insufficient due to the high previous price and upcoming position - limit. The market will likely focus on the new - season apple production as the key growing period approaches. With a likely increase in production and more flower buds, the report suggests short - term short - selling of the October contract [5]. Group 3: Market Information Spot Price - Fuji apple price index is 110.41 today, down 0.15 from the next - working - day price. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.84, down 0.06 [2]. - The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, and Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 remain unchanged [2]. Futures Price - AP01 is 8622, up 25 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 10118, up 54; AP10 is 8765, up 32 [2]. - The spreads between different contracts have also changed. For example, AP01 - AP05 is - 1496, down 29; AP05 - AP10 is 1353, up 22; AP10 - AP01 is 143, up 7 [2]. Basis - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts has decreased. For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 622, down 25; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 2118, down 54; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 765, down 32 [2]. Group 4: Market News - As of March 12, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas is 499.72 million tons, a decrease of 27.81 million tons from last week and 24.34 million tons from last year, with a decline of 4.6% [7]. - The main apple market in the producing areas is stable. There are many merchants in the producing areas, starting to stock up for Tomb - sweeping Festival. The cold - storage packaging quantity is acceptable, and some cold - storage owners are reluctant to sell. The market arrival has increased, and the mainstream price remains stable [7]. - In Shandong, the price of high - quality late - maturing paper - bagged Fuji in cold storage is stable. There are merchants packaging in cold storage, mainly in the main producing areas. The cold - storage trading volume is small, and foreign traders mainly purchase medium - and small - sized fruits. The number of merchants has increased. The mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits in Qixia is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per jin [7]. - In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable. The number of merchants has increased, mainly purchasing high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods is limited, and the procurement is difficult. In recent days, merchants have become more accepting of high prices. The mainstream price of 70 and above paper - bagged Fuji in Luochuan is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per jin [7]. Group 5: Trading Strategy Single - side - It is recommended to exit and wait for the May contract and short - sell the October contract at high prices [6]. Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Options - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Group 6: Related Attachments - There are multiple graphs in the report, including the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in wholesale markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple out - bound volume [10][11][14]

Group 1: Report Summary - The Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.39% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][3] - Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Black Index had the largest increase of 0.29%, and the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest increase of 0.16%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -0.95%, and the Nanhua Precious Metal Index had the smallest decline of -0.11% [1][3] - Among the theme indices, the Black Raw Material Index had the largest increase of 0.4%, and the Building Materials Index had the smallest increase of 0.2%. The Petroleum and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -1.21%, and the Coal - based Chemical Index had the smallest decline of -0.35% [1][3] - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the Alumina index had the largest increase of 3.64%, and the Bottle Chip index had the largest decline of -3.64% [3] Group 2: Index Data Details - **Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI)**: Today's close is 3148.22, yesterday's close was 3160.68, with a decline of -12.46 (-0.39%), an annualized return rate of 25.67%, an annualized volatility of 14.96%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.72 [3] - **Precious Metal Index (NHPMI)**: Today's close is 2177.32, yesterday's close was 2179.76, with a decline of -2.43 (-0.11%), an annualized return rate of 32.10%, and an annualized volatility of 3.04 [3] - **Industrial Products Index (MHII)**: Today's close is 4255.82, yesterday's close was 4273.97, with a decline of -18.15, an annualized return rate of 14.41%, an annualized volatility of 14.44%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.88 [3] - **Metal Index (NHMI)**: Today's close is 7265.62, yesterday's close was 7253.82, with an increase of 11.80 (0.16%), an annualized return rate of 14.30%, an annualized volatility of 16.37%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.01 [3] - **Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI)**: Today's close is 2038.86, yesterday's close was 2058.32, with a decline of -19.46 (-0.95%), an annualized return rate of 15.55%, an annualized volatility of 21.12%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.74 [3] - **Non - ferrous Metal Index (NHNF)**: Today's close is 2060.97, yesterday's close was 2063.73, with a decline of -2.76 (-0.13%), an annualized return rate of 23.55% [3] - **Black Index (NHFI)**: Today's close is 2596.63, yesterday's close was 2589.01, with an increase of 7.63 (0.29%), an annualized return rate of 0.94%, an annualized volatility of 15.97%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.06 [3] - **Agricultural Products Index (NHAI)**: Today's close is 1111.86, yesterday's close was 1118.06, with a decline of -6.20 (-0.55%), an annualized return rate of 4.95%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.63 [3] - **Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi)**: Today's close is 1458.67, yesterday's close was 1464.74, with a decline of -6.07 (-0.41%), an annualized return rate of 9.33%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.39 [3] - **Energy Index (NHEl)**: Today's close is 1520.51, yesterday's close was 1537.10, with a decline of -16.58 (-1.08%), an annualized return rate of 18.39%, an annualized volatility of 50.69%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.36 [3] - **Petroleum and Chemical Index (NHPCl)**: Today's close is 1218.26, yesterday's close was 1233.23, with a decline of -14.97 (-1.21%), an annualized return rate of 29.41%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.41 [3] - **Coal - based Chemical Index (NHCCI)**: Today's close is 1189.71, yesterday's close was 1193.86, with a decline of -4.15 (-0.35%), an annualized return rate of 10.21%, an annualized volatility of 30.01%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.34 [3] - **Black Raw Material Index (NHFM)**: Today's close is 1098.17, yesterday's close was 1093.78, with an increase of 4.38 (0.40%), an annualized return rate of 1.09%, an annualized volatility of 17.89%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.06 [3] - **Building Materials Index (NHBMI)**: Today's close is 725.12, yesterday's close was 723.68, with an increase of 1.44 (0.20%), an annualized return rate of 14.05%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.12 [3] - **Oil and Oilseed Index (NHOOI)**: Today's close is 1353.10, yesterday's close was 1360.14, with a decline of -7.04 (-0.52%), an annualized return rate of 3.94%, an annualized volatility of 14.31%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.28 [3] - **Economic Crop Index (NHAECI)**: Today's close is 975.04, yesterday's close was 978.68, with a decline of -3.64 (-0.37%), an annualized return rate of 2.05%, an annualized volatility of 10.33%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.20 [3] Group 3: Contribution of Single - Variety Index to Index Fluctuations - For the Nanhua Composite Index, positive contributors include Iron Ore (27.52%), while negative contributors include Crude Oil (-27.44%) [3] - For the Nanhua Mini Composite Index, positive contributors include Iron Ore (11.00%), and negative contributors include Methanol (-9.18%) [3] - For the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, positive contributors include Iron Ore (17.57%), and negative contributors include Natural Rubber (-4.28%) [3] - For the Nanhua Metal Index, positive contributors include Iron Ore (8.28%), and negative contributors include Zinc (-8.92%) [3] - For the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index, positive contributors include PVC (3.29%), and negative contributors include Natural Rubber (-2.20%) [3] - For the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, positive contributors include Urea (4.45%), and negative contributors include Palm Oil (-3.93%) [3]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for both gold and silver is ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core View - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. There is a high degree of uncertainty in the war and the global economic outlook. The key is when the Strait of Hormuz will resume navigation. Iran stated that under the coordination and permission of the Iranian military, ships from parties not involved in the war have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Recently, precious metals have been suppressed by the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. This week, attention should be paid to the interest rate decisions of central banks in multiple countries, including the Fed [1] Other Key Points - Trump called on the Fed to immediately hold a special meeting to cut interest rates, saying the war will end soon but not this week, and once the Iran war ends, oil prices will drop rapidly like a falling rock. He also said he was unclear if mines were laid in the strait and hinted at an attack on the Kharg Island oil facility [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bezant said the US allows Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, has not intervened in the oil futures market and has no right to do so, and oil prices may be "well below" $80 in a few months [2] - Chinese Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said that the Chinese and US teams had in - depth, candid and constructive consultations and reached preliminary consensus on some issues. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the two sides are in communication about Trump's visit to China. Vice - Premier He Lifeng urged the US to completely cancel unilateral tariffs and other restrictive measures. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to US remarks on the Strait of Hormuz, calling on all parties to immediately stop military actions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.41% with decreasing volume and open interest. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded to a relatively high level while demand has seasonally improved. Under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and steel prices continue to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate steadily. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5][39]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.58% with decreasing volume and open interest. At present, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have improved under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand. Coupled with the cost support brought by the strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coils continues to fluctuate steadily. However, the resilience of demand is questionable, and cautious attention should be paid to the price trend under the high - inventory situation. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5][39]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore was strong, recording a daily increase of 1.81% with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, the previous favorable factors have supported the iron ore price to return to a high level. However, under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not sustainable. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Fiscal policy**: In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, mainly reflected in five aspects, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, improving the efficiency of transfer payment funds, optimizing the expenditure structure, and strengthening fiscal - financial cooperation [7]. - **Power consumption**: From January to February 2026, the total social power consumption was 1654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The power consumption of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 7.4%, 6.3%, and 8.3% respectively, and the power consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 2.7% [8]. - **Anti - dumping ruling**: Ukraine made a positive final ruling on the third sunset review of anti - dumping on steel wire ropes and steel cables originating from China, deciding to continue to levy an anti - dumping duty of 123% on the products involved for five years [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,220, 3,200, and 3,341 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290, 3,220, and 3,311 respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,970, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,200. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 70, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 [10]. - **Iron ore**: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 795, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772. The ocean freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 13.64 and 29.73 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.42, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 108.80 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High Price | Low Price | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,148 | 0.41 | 3,150 | 3,134 | 592,481 | - 143,412 | 1,549,534 | - 24,530 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,313 | 0.58 | 3,315 | 3,291 | 279,583 | - 12,461 | 1,179,948 | - 3,908 | | Iron ore | - | 816.5 | 1.81 | 819.0 | 804.5 | 210,056 | - 109,973 | 461,728 | 2,876 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils [14][15][17]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts on the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate are provided [23][24][27]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts on the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills in China are provided [31][33][35]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand continue to recover seasonally. Supply pressure is increasing as production is active, and inventory is relatively high. Although demand has improved, the subsequent improvement is questionable. With cost support from strong raw materials, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [39]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Supply is contracting, and demand is showing signs of support. However, demand resilience is questionable due to downstream contradictions and export pressure. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily with caution [39]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. Demand improvement is limited due to restricted production and poor profitability of steel mills, while supply is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to shift to high - level oscillation [40].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: March 17, 2026 [2] - Report Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly this week, mainly due to the decline in the strength of agricultural product factors. The relatively strong sectors in the cross - section are energy - chemical and black, while the relatively weak one is the agricultural product sector. Short - term price - volume factors are highly volatile due to macro factors [3]. Group 4: Commodity Factor Analysis Overall Commodity Situation - The short - term cross - section differentiation of agricultural products narrowed, and short - term factors declined marginally. The short - term momentum of the chemical industry as a whole declined, with asphalt showing relatively little change. The short - term momentum of the black sector increased marginally, and iron ore was relatively strong in the cross - section. The short - cycle momentum differentiation of the non - ferrous sector expanded, and aluminum and tin were strong in the term structure. The time - series momentum of gold fluctuated within a narrow range, and the position factor of silver rebounded [3]. Factor Performance | Sector | Momentum Time - series | Momentum Cross - section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | - 0.08 | | Non - ferrous | 0.05 | - 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | Energy - chemical | - 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.69 | | Agricultural | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.41 | - 0.19 | | Stock Index | - 0.71 | 0.46 | - 0.63 | 1.06 | | Precious Metals | 0.12 | | | 0.88 | [6] Group 5: Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factor Analysis Methanol - In terms of strategy net value, the inventory factor weakened by 0.22%, the spread factor decreased by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.23%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned neutral. On the fundamental factors, the import volume of methanol released a short signal on the supply side; the demand side was neutral to bearish; the inventory side turned bullish; the spread side was neutral to bullish [5]. Float Glass - Strategy net value: The supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the demand factor increased by 0.21%, the inventory factor increased by 0.18%, the profit factor increased by 0.04%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.17%. This week, the comprehensive signal was bearish. On the fundamental factors, the demand side turned neutral, the inventory side continued to be bearish, the profit side turned neutral, and the spread side was neutral to bearish [8]. Iron Ore - Strategy net value: The supply factor decreased by 0.79% last week, and the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.16%. This week, the comprehensive signal changed from neutral to bullish. The supply side signal changed from bearish to bullish, the demand side signal changed from bullish to bearish, the inventory side signal remained neutral, and the spread side signal turned bullish [8]. Aluminum - Strategy net value: Last week, the demand factor increased by 0.5%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.59%, the spread factor decreased by 0.35%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.15%. This week, the comprehensive signal remained bearish. The supply side signal remained neutral, the inventory side bearish signal weakened, and the spread side signal remained bullish [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with significant price fluctuations in various sectors. The short - term market is mainly in a state of shock, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical changes and economic data trends [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The expectation of the easing of the Middle East crisis boosts global risk appetite, and domestic economic data from January to February is favorable. However, due to the influence of the Spring Festival month - shift and external uncertainties, the market sentiment needs to be repaired, and the short - term trend is mainly oscillatory [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Rising oil prices and improved economic data from January to February put pressure on the bond market. The short - term bond market lacks bullish factors, and attention should be paid to the sustainability and strength of economic recovery [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, tariff policy uncertainties, and rising South African electricity prices support the long - term upward trend of platinum - group metals [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: Precious metals are in a low - level shock. The market focuses on geopolitical risks and Fed rate - cut expectations, and the Fed's March FOMC meeting is a key focus [3][4]. - **Copper**: The replenishment demand of downstream enterprises supports the domestic social inventory reduction, and the US energy department's plan to support key mineral processing is a long - term positive [5]. - **Aluminum**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz intensifies the supply shortage of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East, and the short - term price is mainly affected by the war situation [5]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production is affected by regular maintenance and new capacity release, and overseas is affected by geopolitical situations, with mixed long and short news [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and there is strong support below [6]. - **Zinc**: The market is trading on macro - bearish factors. Supply and demand are under pressure, and the zinc price is expected to be in a weak shock [6][7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The shipping volume of nickel ore is seasonally declining, and the downstream of new energy is in the off - season. Stainless steel inventory is decreasing, but the consumer market is not hot [7]. - **Tin**: Geopolitical and rate - cut delay factors are bearish. Supply has a buffer, demand is starting to resume, and the market is in a weak shock [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is affected by the Middle East situation, but the long - term demand growth logic remains unchanged [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the production capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the process of "anti - involution" and supply - demand optimization [9]. - **Lead**: Affected by macro factors, the supply is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Geopolitical conflicts in Iran drive up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, providing cost support for steel. The production of rebar is expected to increase, while hot - rolled coil may reduce production [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is strengthened by negotiation events, but the supply - demand situation is still oversupplied, and the price may reverse quickly [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In the terminal demand verification period, the black - series prices may face downward pressure, but the price has some support at the bottom [13]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations dominate the pricing logic, and the oil price fluctuates greatly. The supply reduction continues, and the market sentiment is cautious [15]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel oil market is strongly supported by supply concerns, and the short - term strong pattern continues [15]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price of crude oil, leading to preventive production cuts. The demand is weak, showing a state of high price but low trading volume [16]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The chemical sector fluctuates with geopolitical situations, and the cost is supported by rising crude oil prices. The market sentiment is affected by the US attitude [17][18]. - **PP and Propylene**: The PP market follows the crude oil price. The supply of PP is reduced, and the export window is opened. The supply of propylene is relatively loose [18]. - **Plastic**: It follows the crude oil price. The supply is reduced, and the export may increase. The demand is suppressed by high prices [19]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment and geopolitical factors are mixed. The demand for rubber is bearish, but synthetic rubber has cost support [19]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is relatively stable. The price space is limited, and the long - term supply is expected to remain high [20][21]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the mid - stream inventory is high. The supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is differentiated. The inventory is high, and the export has a certain supporting effect on the market [22]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The current market is mainly trading on the weak post - Spring Festival demand. The price decline is supported by secondary fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [23][24]. - **Oilseeds**: The Sino - US negotiation in April is postponed, and the market shows a pattern of "buying expectations and selling reality". The short - term spot price is firm, but the medium - term supply is abundant [24]. - **Oils**: The oil market follows the crude oil trend, and short - term policies are favorable. It is expected to maintain a strong operation [25]. - **Cotton**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is volatile, but the cotton price is relatively firm. The supply - demand tightening expectation supports the price, and the import quota policy may lead to a small - scale correction [25]. - **Sugar**: The oil - alcohol - sugar transmission mechanism supports the sugar price, and the price increase mainly depends on the supply - demand fundamentals [26]. - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is gradually recovering. The inventory pressure is relieved, and the demand is expected to be boosted by the approaching Tomb - sweeping Festival [27][28]. - **Apples**: The futures market is strongly supported by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the short - term trend is strong [28]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The downstream sales are average, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal price is dragged down by the sharp decline of US soybeans, and the supply pressure in the far - month will increase due to the return of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal to the domestic market. The short - term fluctuation is large, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term. [2] - The rapeseed oil futures price generally maintains a high - level shock recently, and the short - term fluctuation increases. The market is currently trading on the drive of biodiesel demand. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9833 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2485 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. [2] - The 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 134 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of rapeseed meal is 30 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan. [2] - The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 233,669 lots, down 11,060 lots; the position of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 621,064 lots, up 1,213 lots. [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is - 20,286 lots, down 6,825 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 137,909 lots, up 10,052 lots. [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 1,125, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2,261, unchanged. [2] - The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 702.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 36.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5,900 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,400 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,680 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,381.25 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5,219.32 yuan/ton, down 236.25 yuan. [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 3.82, down 0.05. [2] - The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 567 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 195 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. [2] - The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,560 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,960 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 440 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is - 45 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan. [2] - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 220,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is - 100 tons, down 500 tons. [2] - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 238,200 tons, up 23,500 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 20,000 tons, up 5,000 tons. [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 276,500 tons, up 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 57,500 tons, down 23,000 tons. [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 5,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 302,000 tons, up 19,000 tons. [2] - The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 52,000 tons, down 70,000 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 104,000 tons, up 50,000 tons. [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3,008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons. [2] - The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan. [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 30.36%, down 4.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 30.35%, down 4.78%. [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 28.16%, up 6.34%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.86%, up 2.12%. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is down 0.5%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 22.78%, up 0.23%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.91%, down 0.5%. [2] 3.8 Industry News - On March 16th, the rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed significantly lower, dragged down by the limit - down of US soybeans and the decline of soybean oil. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract fell 37.30 Canadian dollars or 5.04%, settling at 702.60 Canadian dollars per ton. [2] - The previous market was boosted by the geopolitical conflict, but as the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which frustrates the market's export expectations for US soybeans. [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The cancellation of the anti - discrimination tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. [2] - The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the previous average expectation of 22.3 million acres. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture expects the rapeseed production in 2026/27 to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, and the international oil price has risen significantly, driving the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in March, and the inventory at the end of the month is expected to continue to decline. [2] - The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on specific commodities such as palm oil, and the market expects the export of Indonesian palm oil to tighten, supporting the palm oil market price. [2] - The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been settled, and the import volume is expected to increase significantly in the future, adding supply pressure in the far - month, but the market has already anticipated this, and the impact on the market is limited. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metal market continued its volatile trend. The easing signal from the US Treasury Secretary regarding the passage of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz cooled market risk - aversion and oil prices, suppressing the upward movement of the US dollar and marginally boosting the performance of the precious metal market. The escalation of the US - Iran situation and the risk in the Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns about US inflation, delaying the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and suppressing the unilateral upward space of gold and silver. The US economy shows characteristics of "slowing growth but persistent inflation". The market's expectation of a single interest - rate cut by the Fed this year has led to a convergence of loose bets, which may continue to suppress precious metals in the short term. However, if the US - Iran situation remains tense, the safe - haven premium will support the gold price. Global physical gold ETFs have seen net inflows for nine consecutive months, indicating that institutional funds still have resilience, and precious metals have certain value for dip - buying. It is recommended to conduct short - term range - bound trading and mid - to long - term dip - buying [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1116.20 yuan/gram, down 2.1 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 20308 yuan/kilogram, up 7.00 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 3598.00 hands to 90,930.00 hands, while those of Shanghai Silver increased by 70653.00 hands to 73,981.00 hands. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 67362.00 hands to 146,932.00 hands, and that of the Shanghai Silver main contract decreased by 173852.00 hands to 550,109.00 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold decreased by 102 kilograms to 105315 kilograms, and that of Shanghai Silver increased by 23055 kilograms to 353,763 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1115.97 yuan, up 1.36 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 20,354.00 yuan, up 339.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 0.23 yuan/gram, up 3.50 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 46.00 yuan/gram, up 332.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.85 tons to 1070.71 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 104.23 tons to 15,355.95 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC increased by 2987.00 contracts to 163132.00 contracts, and those of silver increased by 1240.00 contracts to 24,578.00 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold decreased by 0.19 tons to 1302.80 tons, and the total annual supply of silver increased by 482.00 tons to 32,056.00 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold increased by 79.57 tons to 1345.32 tons, and the total annual demand for silver decreased by 491.00 tons to 35,716.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.81, down 0.69; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.87, down 0.05. The VIX volatility index was 23.51, down 3.68; the CBOE gold volatility index was 30.56, down 1.75. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.34, up 0.03; the gold - silver ratio was 63.27, up 3.00 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that after an attack on a military target in Iran's main oil export hub, the US Department of Justice asked a federal judge to reconsider revoking the subpoena for Fed Chairman Powell. Trump hopes European countries, Japan, and South Korea to assist in ensuring the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but German Chancellor Merz refused. Trump called on the Fed to hold a "special meeting" to cut interest rates and criticized Fed Chairman Powell. The World Silver Institute reported that the global silver market is expected to face a structural shortage for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a cumulative deficit of over 800 million ounces in the past five years. The physical silver supply in the London market remains tight. China's annual silver exports increased to about 4244 tons (a 4.35% year - on - year increase), mainly supported by processing trade. The import of non - flake silver powder for photovoltaics increased by nearly 50%, indicating strong domestic demand in the new energy manufacturing sector [2]. 3.6 Key Focus - On March 17 at 22:00, the US Conference Board Leading Index for February; on March 18 at 18:00, the Eurozone CPI monthly and annual rates for February; on March 18 at 20:30, the US PPI monthly and annual rates for February; on March 18 at 22:00, the US factory orders monthly rate for February; on March 19 at 02:00, the Fed's March interest - rate meeting; on March 19 at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market maintains a differentiated pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east, with good - quality goods trading better than medium and low - grade goods. The supply of good - quality goods in areas like Luochuan, Shaanxi is temporarily in short supply. As of March 11, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased week - on - week, and the destocking speed accelerated. The sales in the distribution market are slow, but the high - quality goods are scarce and the price is firm. It is expected that the apple futures price will still have room to rise after a short - term adjustment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,118 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 54; the main contract position is 90,214 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,612; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3,145 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,030 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.2 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.3 yuan/jin with a week - on - week increase of 0.05; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) is 4 yuan/jin with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons; the apple orchard area in the whole country is 1,955.77 thousand hectares; the fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.51 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.52 yuan/kg with a week - on - week increase of 0.15. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 499.72 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.81; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.4 with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; in Shaanxi is 0.39 with a week - on - week decrease of 0.03. The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 40,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year monthly export amount of apples increased by 30.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 14.5. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 thousand US dollars, with an increase of 657,409 thousand US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.35 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 [2] Downstream Situation - The fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.67 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; bananas is 6.52 yuan/kg; watermelons is 6.75 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13. The average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong is 12.8 vehicles, with an increase of 3.2; at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong is 18.4 vehicles, with an increase of 6; at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong is 24 vehicles, with an increase of 5.6 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 35%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.04; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 35%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.04 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows a significant increase in port inventory, with Brazilian cotton inventory remaining at a high level. As of March 12, the inventory at major ports for imported cotton was 57.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% [2]. - The consumption side indicates that China's textile and clothing exports increased significantly in the first two months. From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. Among them, textile exports were $25.57 billion, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and clothing exports were $24.87 billion, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [2]. - The textile industry's "Golden March" demand is slowly starting, and textile enterprises' production is continuing to recover. The current market is in the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and it is expected that the short - term cotton price upward trend will remain unchanged [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price was 15,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price was 21,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 214,474 lots, a decrease of 388 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 1,199 lots, an increase of 85 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton was 710,158 lots, a decrease of 1,776 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn was 14,042 lots, an increase of 317 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 12,482, a decrease of 13; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 307, a decrease of 12 [2]. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 16,821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2]. Spot Market - China's Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,186 yuan/ton, an increase of 404 yuan; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 184 yuan [2]. - China's Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 14,086 yuan/ton, an increase of 246 yuan; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) was 23,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 104 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,229 yuan/ton, an increase of 113 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 861,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 180,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 170,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. - The profit of imported cotton was 2,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 309 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 5.7887 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, a decrease of 3.41 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a decrease of 0.63 days [2]. - The monthly output of cloth was 3.01 billion meters, an increase of 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.132 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $134,124,120, an increase of $18,187,260; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was $125,796,030, an increase of $3,038,700 [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 20.11%, a decrease of 1.69 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 20.1%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 14.96%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 14.07%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat's export data shows that Brazil exported 1.723 million tons of cotton in the first two weeks of March, with a daily average export volume of 173,000 tons, a 37% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 126,000 tons in March of the previous year. The total export volume in March of the previous year was 2.391 million tons [2]. - ICE cotton futures hit a more than seven - month high on Monday, supported by a weaker US dollar. Data showed that speculators reduced their short positions. The ICE May cotton futures contract rose 2.34 cents, or 3.55%, to settle at 68.19 cents per pound [2].