Market Review - Global equity markets experienced a general adjustment, with Hong Kong, France, Germany, and the US stock markets showing significant declines. A-shares, after five consecutive weeks of gains, faced a correction, with major indices generally declining. In terms of sectors, A-share CPO and innovative pharmaceuticals led the gains, while cyclical products like coal and non-ferrous metals saw a pullback. The domestic commodity market cooled down due to risk warnings from the three major futures exchanges and position limits on certain products, leading to sharp declines in previously strong commodities like coking coal, glass, and polysilicon. On the international front, Trump's announcement on July 30 regarding copper tariffs did not impose restrictions on copper raw materials, resulting in a significant drop in COMEX copper prices. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index plummeted after the release of non-farm payroll data on Friday, with market expectations for a rate cut in September significantly increasing [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current market correction is temporary, and the slow bull market trend remains unchanged. Following the July Politburo meeting and the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, the market's speculation on incremental policies has cooled down, and after five weeks of consecutive gains, the index requires a phase of adjustment. Looking ahead, the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has reignited, and domestic macro and micro liquidity remains relatively ample, which is conducive to the continuation of the slow bull trend in A-shares. Since the "623" market, A-shares have shown clear characteristics of "rotating upward and low-level replenishment," with better sustainability of the profit-making effect. Additionally, the sources of incremental capital in the market are diverse, with increased participation from public and private equity institutions, and the positive feedback effect of "residents allocating funds into the market and the slow rise of the stock market" is expected to strengthen [2][3]. Sector Allocation - The report recommends focusing on the following areas for sector allocation: 1) New technologies and growth directions such as AI computing power, robotics, and solid-state batteries; 2) Reallocation opportunities in dividend sectors after corrections, such as certain undervalued state-owned enterprises. Thematic areas of interest include self-controllable technologies, military industry, low-altitude economy, and marine technology [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China has issued a notice regarding the special energy-saving inspection tasks for the polysilicon industry for the year 2025, requiring local authorities to implement these tasks and report results by September 30, 2025 [1] Group 1: Energy-Saving Inspection Tasks - A total of 41 domestic polysilicon companies have been included in the energy-saving inspection list, categorized by region [1] - In June 2023, MIIT released a national industrial energy-saving inspection task list for 2025, which included 51 companies across various categories, with only 4 polysilicon companies located in Qinghai [1] - The energy-saving inspection tasks are a routine action by MIIT, but the number of key industries and companies varies each year [2] Group 2: Comparison with Previous Years - In 2023, MIIT identified 4,391 companies for national industrial energy-saving inspections across 33 key industries, while in 2024, this number decreased to 2,899 across 39 industries [2] - The 2023 inspection marked the first time in recent years that polysilicon was designated as a key inspection area, with MIIT separately announcing the special energy-saving inspection tasks for the polysilicon industry [2] Group 3: Inspection Procedures - The inspection process consists of four steps: self-inspection by companies, preliminary review by local authorities, compilation of inspection reports by energy-saving inspection agencies, and submission of comprehensive reports to MIIT [3] Group 4: Industry Context and Government Actions - Since July 2023, the domestic photovoltaic industry has initiated a new wave of regulation against disorderly competition, entering a "反内卷" (anti-involution) phase [4] - MIIT has emphasized the need to address low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity to ensure sustainable development in the photovoltaic sector [5] - The list of companies under inspection includes major polysilicon producers such as GCL-Poly, Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and others, indicating a comprehensive coverage of the current domestic polysilicon production landscape [6] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The timing of the special energy-saving inspection coincides with ongoing discussions about capacity consolidation among major polysilicon companies [7] - The market recovery in the polysilicon sector requires both self-discipline among companies and support from national policies [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market's bullish sentiment has receded, but there is strong support below the 70,000 yuan mark. Downstream demand remains cautious, and there are concerns about weakening long - term demand. However, short - term inventory reduction and demand - side restocking may support prices [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the Politburo meeting and exchange announcements, the market is driven by news. With the recovery of production and uncertain inventory trends, the market may fluctuate, and the policy support effect is yet to be verified [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term speculative sentiment is high, and the market is driven by news. There is a possibility of price regression to fundamentals, and short - term price correction risks should be watched out for [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 09 | News - driven market | 65,000 - 66,000 | 78,000 - 83,000 | Oscillate strongly | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stocking or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 09 | News - driven market | 8,500 - 8,600 | 9,900 - 10,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | | Polysilicon 09 | News - driven market | 45,000 - 46,000 | 55,000 - 56,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 68,280 | - 3.29% | 521,849 | 229,368 | - 43,385 | 5,545 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,760 | - 5.65% | 410,371 | 212,932 | - 29,745 | 50,644 | | Polysilicon | 49,130 | - 7.81% | 565,838 | 126,989 | - 37,501 | 3,200 [16] | 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 17,268 tons, a decrease of 1,362 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, the first decrease after eight consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Downstream**: Downstream inquiry activity has increased, but actual transactions have not increased proportionally. Downstream buyers are still cautious, mainly making purchases for rigid demand [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The resumption of production by manufacturers is accelerating, and production is expected to continue to rise. Short - term inventory has decreased due to improved transactions, but future inventory trends depend on transaction volume and production reduction implementation [6]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level, which will form selling hedging pressure on the market. The full - cost "policy red line" provides strong support [8][9]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report.

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a fluctuating upward trend in August, influenced by favorable policy expectations, moderate economic recovery, and the mid-year reporting window, with a focus on policy and performance [1][6] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 1, the A-share market saw a reduction in trading volume, with a total transaction amount of 1.60 trillion, down 337.7 billion from the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.24% [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector continued to perform strongly, with multiple stocks such as Weikang Pharmaceutical and Xintian Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [2] - The photovoltaic sector rebounded, with stocks like Jiejia Weichuang and Qidi Design reaching the daily limit, driven by new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing energy efficiency [3] - The logistics sector saw a surge, with companies like Shentong Express and Yunda Holdings also hitting the daily limit, supported by discussions on regulating competition in the industry [4] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Huaxi Securities predicts that the A-share market may challenge the 2024 high in the second half of the year, supported by improved corporate earnings and increased market participation [5] - Dongfang Securities believes the Chinese stock market has entered a medium to long-term slow bull phase, with reduced volatility and healthy rotation of market hotspots [6][7]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued a notice on August 1, 2023, regarding energy-saving inspections for 41 polysilicon companies [1][3] - The list of companies includes 9 from Inner Mongolia, 8 from Xinjiang, 6 from Sichuan, 5 from Yunnan, 3 from Qinghai, 3 from Ningxia, 2 from Hubei, and 1 each from Jiangsu, Henan, Shaanxi, and Gansu [1][2] - The MIIT requires local industrial and information departments to organize and implement the inspections according to the notice, with results to be reported by September 30, 2025 [3] Group 2 - Specific companies listed for inspection include Daqo New Energy Co., Ltd., Xinte Energy Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Industry Technology Co., Ltd., Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., and others [2] - The inspections aim to ensure compliance with energy-saving regulations and to alleviate the burden on enterprises during the process [3]

Report Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Others - None [3] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation; Others - None [6] Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices dropped on July 31, 2025, and the current price is relatively reasonably valued based on fundamentals, but supply is expected to increase, and the market is affected by policies and sentiment [1][3] - Polysilicon futures prices also fell sharply on the same day, with stable spot prices. The market is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment, and the specific details of industry storage and mergers are yet to be determined [3] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On July 31, 2025, the industrial silicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 9090 yuan/ton and closed at 8760 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.26% from the previous settlement. The closing position was 212932 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50644 lots, an increase of 798 lots from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The industrial silicon spot price declined. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9700 - 9900 (- 200) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9900 - 10400 (- 100) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 9100 - 9200 (- 200) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 9000 - 9200 (- 200) yuan/ton [1] - **Production**: In July 2025, industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 2.2112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [1] - **Inventory**: On July 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 540,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5000 tons. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 119,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 421,000 tons, an increase of 6000 tons from the previous week [1] - **Consumption**: The organic silicon DMC quotation was 12100 - 12700 (0) yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction center was around 12300 yuan/ton. The demand matching degree decreased due to sufficient raw material inventory of downstream enterprises [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On July 31, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 52500 yuan/ton and closed at 49130 yuan/ton, a change of - 7.81% from the previous trading day. The position was 126989 lots, and the trading volume was 565838 lots [3] - **Spot**: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 5.76% month - on - month to 22.90, silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 18.15GW. Polysilicon weekly production was 26500.00 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%, and silicon wafer production was 11.00GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.79% [5] - **Prices of Related Products**: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 (0.00) yuan/piece. High - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.30 (0.01) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W. PERC182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [5] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Others: No specific strategies [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Others: No specific strategies [6]

Overview - The report highlights the synergy between the "anti-involution" policy and domestic demand policies, which is expected to drive the Hong Kong stock market to new highs in 2025 [2][5] - The "anti-involution" policy is being implemented across multiple industries, likely curbing price wars and boosting corporate profit expectations [2][5] - Demand-side policies, such as infrastructure projects and childcare subsidies, are providing positive support for market sentiment [2][5] Macro Strategy - The liquidity environment remains loose, but there are warnings about the potential for a temporary strengthening of the US dollar [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may be delayed until the fourth quarter of 2025 due to resilient economic indicators in the US [2][3] - Despite the crowded short positions on the dollar, the current liquidity in the Hong Kong market is ample, with reasonable valuation levels providing an ideal allocation window for investors [2][3] Industry Allocation Strategy - The report maintains a "high elasticity" and "high dividend" barbell strategy for industry allocation [4][6] - The internet and AI hard technology sectors are expected to benefit from a slowdown in subsidy wars, with corporate profits likely to be revised upwards [6] - The biopharmaceutical sector is supported by ample funding from overseas pharmaceutical giants and a rich pipeline of innovative drugs in mainland China [6] - Traditional industries and emerging sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries are expected to benefit from improved industry competition dynamics due to the "anti-involution" policy [6] - High-dividend sectors such as banking and insurance are recommended as stable income sources during market volatility [6] Company Highlights - **China Ping An (2318HK)**: Expected to benefit from a favorable stock market environment, with an attractive valuation and a target price of HKD 73.00, representing a potential upside of 35.3% [7][9] - **Link REIT (823HK)**: Anticipated to maintain stable dividends with a target price of HKD 47.70, reflecting an 8.7% potential upside, supported by a favorable consumption environment [15][17] - **OmniVision Technologies (603501CH)**: Positioned to benefit from domestic semiconductor supply chain localization and rising automotive demand, with a target price of RMB 180.00, indicating a potential upside of 48.4% [20][22] - **Alibaba (BABAUS/9988HK)**: Expected to see valuation adjustments driven by AI and cloud business leadership, with a target price of USD 165, representing a potential upside of 40.6% [28][30] - **Xpeng Motors (9868HK)**: Projected to achieve breakeven due to strong new car cycles, with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating an 88.1% potential upside [34][36] - **Zymeworks (6996HK)**: Highlighted for its promising drug pipeline and potential for significant revenue growth, with a target price of HKD 6.60, representing a 14.2% upside [41][43] - **Anta Sports (2020HK)**: Expected to drive high-quality growth through a multi-brand strategy, with a target price of HKD 110.20, indicating a potential upside of 22.4% [45][47]

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Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice regarding the special energy-saving inspection tasks for the polysilicon industry for the year 2025, emphasizing the need for local authorities to implement these inspections by September 30, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The notice requires local industrial and information authorities to organize and implement energy-saving inspections in accordance with the specified guidelines [1] - The inspections aim to adhere to the State Council's directive on regulating administrative checks related to enterprises, thereby reducing the burden on companies [1] - The results of the inspections must be reported to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology by the specified deadline [1]