1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance scale of government bonds using the remaining quota for debt resolution has exceeded 280 billion yuan. The report provides a weekly update on local government bond issuance and special bond issuance progress [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From December 1st - 7th, local bonds were issued at 108.72 billion yuan, including 50.44 billion yuan of new bonds (21 billion yuan of new general bonds and 39.05 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 58.28 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (41.31 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 16.97 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds). From December 8th - 14th, local bonds are expected to be issued at 106.96 billion yuan, including 71.05 billion yuan of new bonds (21 billion yuan of new general bonds and 50.05 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 35.9 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (18.74 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 17.16 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6] - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: The report shows the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in November and December, as well as the monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing situation of local bonds from May to December 2025 [20][21] 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - From December 1st - 7th, the net supply of local bonds was 6.05 billion yuan; from December 8th - 14th, the forecast net supply of local bonds is 6.23 billion yuan [16] 3.3 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of December 7th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 92.44%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was 98.23%. The calculation denominator of the issuance progress includes the 200 - billion - yuan part of the used remaining quota, so it differs from the previous calculation method [25] 3.4 Refinancing Bond Net Supply - The report shows the cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local bond maturities from January to December from 2020 to 2025, with the statistical scope including both issued and unissued but disclosed bonds [27][28] 3.5 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of December 7th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, the sixth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 28.81 billion yuan, and an additional 1.6821 billion yuan was newly disclosed for the next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with separately - planned budgets in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (25.11 billion yuan), Hunan (12.88 billion yuan), and Henan (12.27 billion yuan) [6] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of December 7th, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 was 135.0841 billion yuan, and since 2023, the total disclosed amount was 253.8705 billion yuan. The top three in terms of disclosed scale were Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (13.117 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities with separately - planned budgets in 2025 were Jiangsu (12.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (11.9268 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [7] 3.6 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report shows the primary and secondary spreads of local bonds on December 7th and November 30th, 2025, including spreads for different maturities (1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, 30Y) and the overall spread [38] - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The report presents the regional secondary spreads of local bonds, but specific data is not detailed in the text [39] 3.7 New Special Bond Investment Directions - The report shows the investment directions of new special bonds, with the statistics for the latest month only considering the investment directions of issued new bonds and not pre - issuance disclosures [40]

Group 1 - China's official gold reserves reached a new high of 74.12 million ounces (2305 tons) as of December 7, 2025, indicating a strategic shift in asset allocation away from U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - In September, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $500 million, while the UK significantly cut its holdings by $39.3 billion, reflecting a broader trend among central banks to diversify away from the dollar [1][3] - The reliance on the dollar for oil, treasury bonds, and gold is diminishing, with an increasing number of oil transactions being settled in local currencies, leading to a rise in gold's popularity among central banks and the public [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is attempting to reduce its global military commitments and shift responsibilities to allies, particularly in the East, which may indicate a strategic retreat from its role as a global police force [5][6] - Trump's approach to international relations includes a focus on "shared governance," which aims to transfer responsibilities to China, reflecting a desire to offload international burdens [6][11] - The timing of China's gold reserve announcement, just before Trump's visit to China, suggests a calculated move to assert its position in negotiations and indicate a shift in power dynamics [10][11] Group 3 - The perception of the dollar's supremacy is changing, with even close allies adjusting their strategies, indicating a potential weakening of the existing financial system [13] - China's accumulation of gold is a strategic move to ensure financial security and bargaining power, rather than a display of wealth, as the instability of the U.S. situation increases gold's value [13] - The announcement of gold reserves serves as a signal in the broader geopolitical chess game, affecting currency exchange rates, inflation, and investment trends, which may not be immediately apparent to the general public [13]

周二（12月9日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨1.76个基点，报4.1819%，北京时间21:53刷 新日低至4.1410%，随后在23:00发布美国职位空缺（美联储青睐的就业数据）时快速拉升，美国财政部 拍卖10年期美债之后一段时间刷新日高至4.1859%。两年期美债收益率涨3.59个基点，刷新日高至 3.6105%，21:53刷新日低至3.5628%，职位空缺数据发布时快速拉升大约4个基点。20年期美债收益率涨 0.37个基点，30年期美债收益率涨0.30个基点。三年期美债收益率涨3.17个基点，五年期美债收益率涨 2.81个基点，七年期美债收益率涨2.61个基点。02/10年期美债收益率利差跌1.569个基点，报+57.155个 基点。三个月期国库券/10年期美债收益率利差涨0.823个基点，02/30年期美债收益率利差跌2.923个基 点，05/30年期美债收益率利差跌2.607个基点。10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率涨2.15个基点，至 1.8960%上方；两年期TIPS收益率涨约5.9个基点，至1.1572%；30年期TIPS收益率涨0.47个基点，至 2.5808%。 ...

周二的10年期美债标售以4.175%的高收益率成交，高于去年11月的4.068%，创下8月以来最高水平。 周二美国财政部拍卖390亿美元10年期国债。本次拍卖需求强劲，国外买家购买比例创近四个月新高，但拍卖未能提振债市情绪，10年期美债收益 率维持在近三个月高位。 华尔街见闻提及，周二稍早，美国10月JOLTS职位空缺不降反升至五个月高点，令美联储本周降息决策面临的两难境地更加凸显。 虽然交易员几乎完全消化了美联储本周将降息25个基点的预期，但今年以来美联储两次降息的主要考量是应对就业市场疲软，而最新数据显示劳 动力市场韧性超出预期。 多位美联储官员近期警告称，由于通胀率持续高于央行2%的目标，可能不宜进一步降息。本月以来，市场对明年额外降息的预期已经大幅消退， 推动10年期美债收益率昨日触及4.19%，为9月底以来最高。 标售需求扎实，国外买家增持 债市反弹空间有限，明年宽松预期减弱 （周一10年期美债收益率触及4.19%，为9月底以来最高） 本月美国国债收益率普遍上升，10年期国债收益率周一触及4.19%，为9月下旬以来的最高水平。 DWS America固定收益主管George Catrambone表示 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in the 30-year treasury futures, with the 30-year treasury yield rising over 7 basis points to above 2.25% and the 10-year treasury yield increasing by 0.7 basis points to 1.8480% [1] - The widening gap between the 30-year and 10-year treasury yields is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of new fund redemption fees, anticipated steady growth policies, and a decrease in monetary easing expectations [1][6] - Institutional profit-taking pressure is significant as the year-end approaches, contributing to the sell-off in the long-end bond market [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influencing the bond market, with expectations for steady growth impacting market sentiment directly [2] - The central government's emphasis on implementing more proactive macro policies indicates a supportive stance for economic growth, despite the lack of specific targets [4] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption remains a key policy direction, with an emphasis on innovation and technology [4][5] Group 3 - The overall policy framework for the upcoming year is expected to prioritize broad fiscal expansion, with monetary easing complementing fiscal efforts [5] - There is a strong mid-term expectation for economic stabilization, although the necessity for short-term interest rate cuts is limited [5][6] - The bond market sentiment remains under pressure, with the 10-year treasury yield expected to oscillate between 1.85% and 1.9%, while the 30-year treasury yield has limited upward movement potential [6][7] Group 4 - The year-end selling pressure from banks to realize gains on older bonds is likely to constrain the upward movement of the bond market [7] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is weak, with expectations that the 30-year treasury futures will continue to exhibit a weak oscillating pattern [7] - The potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut may enhance the strength of the short-end bond market, leading to a steeper yield curve [7]

Group 1 - The comments from Bank of England policymakers support expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a slight outperformance of UK government bonds [1][3] - UK government bond yields fell by 2-3 basis points, with the 30-year bond yield decreasing by 3 basis points to 5.2%; traders are betting that the Bank of England will cut rates by 56 basis points by the end of 2026 [1][3] - Bank of England official Mann indicated that a weak job market may alleviate price concerns, while Lombardelli expects the Chancellor's budget to reduce inflation by 0.5 percentage points; Ramsden hinted at a preference for a rate cut next week, anticipating rates to stabilize around 3% [1][3] Group 2 - French long-term government bond yields decreased by 2-3 basis points as traders await a key vote on the social security budget [2][4] - Market updates include a 1 basis point drop in German government bond yields to 2.85%, a rise in German bond futures by 20.00 points to 127.49, and a 1 basis point decrease in Italian 10-year bond yields to 3.55% [2][4] - The Italian-German bond yield spread remained stable at 70 basis points, while French 10-year bond yields fell by 3 basis points to 3.56%, and UK 10-year bond yields decreased by 2 basis points to 4.51% [2][4]

按类型划分，利率债方面，11月成交金额214,422.16亿元，同比、环比分别增长9.81%、13.72%。信用 债方面，11月成交金额73,338.98亿元，同比减少3.40%、环比增加19.23%。 新华财经北京12月9日电 11月，债券二级市场交投氛围显著回暖，成交金额实现同比、环比双增长。产 业债和城投债成交久期呈现分化，产业债偏好1年以下短久期品种，城投债则向3-5年中长期限倾斜，高 等级债券仍是成交主力，市场信用风险偏好稳健。本月信用利差呈 V型震荡，月末收37.34bp，与上月 末基本持平。展望后市，信用利差将低位震荡，进一步收窄或大幅走阔空间有限。 统计数据显示，债券二级市场11月总成交金额340,656.40亿元，实现同比、环比双增长，增幅分别为 2.21%、14.62%。 从成交信用债的特征来看，产业债和城投债交易金额均实现环比增长，市场流动性较前期有所改善。具 体来看，产业债成交金额环比增加16.81%，城投债成交金额环比增加12.74%。交易结构上，本月成交 的产业债和城投债在信用级别上与前期变动不大，高等级债券依旧是市场成交的主力品种，低评级债券 交投热度未出现明显波动，反映出当前市 ...

报告要点 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 信用债流动性评估进阶指南（上） ——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（十一） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 作为信用债流动性评估进阶指南的上篇，本报告聚焦现有信用债流动性评分体系，解析"评分 排名制"与"排名赋分制"两大主流体系的构建逻辑与操作方法，阐述前者主成分分析法的三 步评分流程与后者简单线性回归法的排序赋分规则，明确两种方法的优劣及适配场景；基于截 面和时序视角，分析券种类型、主体评级等多因素对流动性评分的影响规律，总结不同体系下 评分特征与波动情况，为理解信用债流动性评分逻辑提供参考。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 26 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 信用债流动性评估进阶指南（上） 2] ——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（ ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The report indicates that economic downward pressure may increase, leading to a higher likelihood of policy interest rate cuts in the future. The central bank governor emphasized the need for appropriate monetary policy adjustments to support economic growth and price stability [6][9]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has returned to positive territory year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a reduced decline. However, investment and consumption growth rates have significantly decreased, reinforcing the expectation of interest rate cuts [6][9]. - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the bond market, particularly noting that the success rate of bullish positions in December has been historically high since 2018 [6][9]. Group 2: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market - 2025 marks the first year that European countries will enforce mandatory SAF blending requirements, with demand primarily driven by the EU and the UK. The UK has achieved a compliance rate of 70% from January to October 2025, with high demand expected to continue through the end of the year [10][11]. - Due to high profitability of HVO products in Europe, the release of SAF production capacity has been limited, resulting in a tight supply-demand balance that is expected to push SAF prices higher [10][11]. - The report suggests monitoring SAF production companies, especially those that have received export whitelist status, such as Hainan New Energy Technology, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and Zhuoyue New Energy [12][13]. Group 3: Robotics Industry - Recent financing activities in the robotics sector include Lingxin Qiaoshou completing a multi-million RMB A+ round and Blue Dot Touch announcing over 100 million RMB in C round financing. The government is planning to establish a regulatory framework for the humanoid robotics industry [15][16]. - The report highlights the importance of six-dimensional force sensors in humanoid robots, which are crucial for real-time precision control. The market for these sensors is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating over 460,000 units sold by 2030 [15][16]. - The report identifies key companies in the humanoid robotics supply chain, including Kaiter Co. and Dingzhi Technology, which are making advancements in sensor technology and robotics applications [15][16]. Group 4: JiZhi Co. (集智股份) Analysis - JiZhi Co. has announced a stock incentive plan aimed at core employees, with a significant portion of the stock allocation directed towards key personnel rather than executives, reflecting a commitment to fostering innovation and growth [21][22]. - The company is focusing on expanding into high-tech fields such as deep-sea listening, aerospace, and robotics, which are at critical stages of development. This alignment of employee interests with company growth is seen as strategically significant [22][23]. - The report forecasts substantial growth in JiZhi Co.'s net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected increases of 179.47%, 82.07%, and 75.41% respectively, indicating strong potential for future performance [23].

Group 1 - The article highlights that low interest rates do not guarantee low volatility in the bond market, as evidenced by overseas experiences where significant adjustments occur even in low-rate environments [1][6][11] - In the context of low interest rates, the bond market often experiences rapid and substantial adjustments, characterized by large average adjustment amplitudes of 81bp for the US, 53bp for Germany, 59bp for France, and 74bp for Japan, typically occurring within 1-2 months [1][17][34] - The concept of "convexity" in bonds amplifies market volatility in low interest rate environments, leading to a non-linear increase in duration and significant sensitivity to interest rate changes, resulting in greater capital losses compared to high interest rate environments [1][24][34] Group 2 - The article discusses that the micro-foundation of bond market vulnerability in low interest rate environments stems from homogenized strategies and crowded trading behaviors among institutions, which can lead to increased market fragility [2][34][46] - A reversal in macroeconomic expectations often triggers high volatility in the bond market, with historical instances showing that significant market adjustments can occur without tightening monetary policy, driven instead by unexpected changes in nominal GDP [2][46][57] - The anticipated economic recovery in 2026 is expected to shift from a confidence-building phase to a "non-typical" recovery, with monetary policy becoming more cautious regarding interest rate cuts, potentially leading to increased volatility in the bond market [3][79][88]