Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the corn market: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, the adjustment in the September report was slightly higher than market expectations, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. Attention should be paid to the situation of new - season US soybeans. In the domestic market, although the increase in Brazilian premiums has supported soybean prices to some extent, the supply is still sufficient and downstream inventory is high. Policy changes between China and the US need to be monitored [2]. - For the corn market, on the supply side, the new - season grain supply is abundant. On the demand side, feed and deep - processing enterprises are cautious about purchasing new - season corn. The situation of new - season corn listing and acquisition needs to be focused on [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - 粕类 - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3042 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2504 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-1.07%) [1]. - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **US Department of Agriculture Report**: For the 2025/26 US soybean season, the planted area was expected to be 81.1 million acres, and the harvested area 80.3 million acres, both up 200,000 acres; the average yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, down 0.1 bushel; the production was 4.301 billion bushels, up 9 million bushels; the export forecast was 1.685 billion bushels, down 20 million bushels [1]. Market News and Important Data - Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2167 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.37%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2443 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.25%) [3]. - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **US Department of Agriculture Report**: For the 2025/26 US corn season, the yield per acre was down 2.1 bushels to 186.7 bushels/acre; the planted area was up to 98.7 million acres; the production was up 72 million bushels to 16.814 billion bushels; the export volume was up 100 million bushels to a record 2.975 billion bushels; the ending inventory was down 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels [3]. Market Analysis - 粕类 - The bean meal futures price was weakly volatile. The adjustment in the September report was slightly higher than market expectations, causing a decline in US soybean prices. In the domestic market, the increase in Brazilian premiums supported soybean prices, but supply was sufficient and downstream inventory was high. Policy changes between China and the US need attention [2]. Market Analysis - Corn - **Supply**: Traders had little old - crop corn left, and the price of old - crop corn was firm. New - crop corn was gradually coming onto the market, and traders were trying to buy at lower prices. However, due to the demand from deep - processing enterprises, the price of new - crop corn in Heilongjiang increased slightly. New - season grain supply was abundant [4][5]. - **Demand**: Feed enterprises mainly used their inventory and were cautious about purchasing new - season corn. Deep - processing enterprises also wanted to buy at lower prices. The situation of new - season corn listing and acquisition needs to be monitored [5]. Strategies - For the粕类 market, the strategy is neutral [3]. - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products from Guotai Junan Futures on September 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, etc. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Palm oil: Supported by US soybean oil, it is advisable to take a long - position at low prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans closed higher, and the outcome of China - US negotiations should be monitored [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Affected by the sentiment of economic and trade talks, it may rebound from an oversold condition [2][13]. - Soybean: It will fluctuate in a rebound [2][13]. - Corn: It will move in a sideways pattern [2][16]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to macro - policies [2][20]. - Cotton: The market is focused on the listing of new cotton [2][24]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is ending, and inventory remains high [2][30]. - Pigs: The weakness of spot prices is hard to reverse, while policies are relatively strong [2][32]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][36]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,422 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,476 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 0.65% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,392 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase [5]. - **News**: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 742,648 tons, a 2.55% increase from the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in August 2025 increased by 15.76% month - on - month to 990,528 tons [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [12]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,042 yuan/ton with a 1.46% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 3,043 yuan/ton with a 0.26% decrease. DCE soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,939 yuan/ton with a 0.43% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 3,946 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase [13]. - **News**: On September 15, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to harvest pressure and concerns about Chinese demand. As of September 14, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 5% [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both soybean meal and soybean is +1 [15]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,167 yuan/ton with a 1.46% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,169 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,156 yuan/ton with a 0.60% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,159 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [17]. - **News**: The northern corn collection and port price was 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for corn is 0 [19]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The original sugar price was 16.67 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,549 yuan/ton [20]. - **News**: India's monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for sugar is 1 [23]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and the night - session closing price was 13,910 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase [24]. - **News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the inventory of high - quality lint was low [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for cotton is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,126 yuan/500 kg with a 2.90% increase, and egg 2601's closing price was 3,369 yuan/500 kg with a 0.51% increase [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for eggs is 0 [30]. Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price was 13,330 yuan/ton, and the Sichuan spot price was 13,100 yuan/ton [32]. - **Market Logic**: The supply in September is expected to increase significantly, and the spot price is likely to decline further. The 7 - month contract may be subject to policy regulation in the short term [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for pigs is 0 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 8,360 yuan/ton [36]. - **Spot Market**: The new - season peanuts are expected to be listed in late September. The prices in various regions are generally stable [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for peanuts is 0 [40].

Core Insights - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a majority of its agricultural futures contracts close lower on September 15, with soybean futures down by 0.29% at 1043.25 cents per bushel, corn futures down by 1.45% at 423.75 cents per bushel, and wheat futures up by 0.38% at 525.50 cents per bushel [1]. Group 1 - Soybean futures decreased by 0.29% to 1043.25 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures fell by 1.45% to 423.75 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures increased by 0.38% to 525.50 cents per bushel [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Pulse Daily Report - September 15, 2025: Uncertainties Increase, Pressure on the Disk to Fall" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The recent soybean and rapeseed meal are mainly affected by macro - factors and operate in a volatile manner. The domestic soybean meal disk may have limited deep - fall space in the future, and the rapeseed meal has certain price support. [4][9] - It is recommended to lay out long positions for the 05 contract on dips, go long on the MRM05 spread on dips, and buy call options. [10] Group 4: Market Quotes Summary - **Futures and Spot Quotes**: Today, the US soybean disk declined slightly. The domestic soybean meal disk fell significantly due to potential supply improvement, and the rapeseed meal disk also dropped significantly affected by the sharp decline in soybean meal. For example, the soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3042, down 37; the rapeseed meal 01 contract closed at 2504, down 27. [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined significantly. For instance, the soybean meal 15 spread was 238 today, down 21 from yesterday; the rapeseed meal 15 spread was 111 today, down 14 from yesterday. [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads also changed. The current value of the soybean - rapeseed 01 spread was 538, down 10 from yesterday; the oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.753, up 0.05 from yesterday. [4] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The carry - over stock in the old - crop balance sheet of US soybeans was slightly increased. The new - crop yield had a small adjustment, with a slight decrease in yield per unit but a slight increase in planting area, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply. [5] - **South American Soybeans**: The old - crop supply - demand in South America was relatively loose. The soybean production in major exporting countries was expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. [5] - **International Soybean Meal**: The overall supply pressure of international soybean meal was obvious. The soybean crushing volume in major producing areas was expected to increase by 21.536 million tons throughout the year, while the import volume of major importing countries only increased slightly. [5] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply was relatively loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and sufficient market supply. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. The rapeseed meal demand gradually weakened, the oil - mill operating rate decreased, and there was still supply pressure. [7] Group 6: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but there was no clear information. The market was still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. However, as the market gradually stabilized, macro - disturbances decreased. [8] Group 7: Logic Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The main influencing factor of domestic soybean meal was the macro - aspect. The overall soybean production changed little, and the inventory pressure still existed. The Brazilian soybean production remained high, and the price pressure also existed. [9] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal inventory was relatively low, but the demand was average. The subsequent import volume was relatively low, and the price lacked obvious fluctuations. [9] Group 8: Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to lay out long positions for the 05 contract on dips. [10] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Go long on the MRM05 spread on dips. [10] - **Options Trading**: Buy call options. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed trend, with some products rising and others falling. For example, egg prices are rising, while soybean meal and corn prices are falling [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal prices have dropped significantly due to reduced concerns about tight soybean supply in the fourth - quarter after Sino - US economic and trade talks, and increased production and inventory from high - pressure oil mill operations [1]. - Corn prices have also fallen sharply as new corn is about to be concentratedly launched, leading to a large number of long - position liquidations [1]. - Egg prices have risen strongly because of the demand for double - festival stocking and the reduction of production capacity through increased culling of old laying hens [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has declined significantly. The Sino - US economic and trade talks may improve US soybean exports to China, alleviating supply concerns. High domestic oil mill crushing volumes have increased inventory, pressuring prices. The strategy is to hold short positions lightly, with support at 3030 and resistance at 3080 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs has risen strongly due to double - festival stocking demand. However, high egg - laying hen inventory and the inflow of low - price cold - storage eggs may limit the upside. The strategy is to close short positions and go long lightly near support, with support at 3070 and resistance at 3200 [4]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has risen steadily. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and the decrease in production, along with domestic double - festival stocking demand, support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 9310 and resistance at 9446 [6]. 3.2.4 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has risen steadily. Higher external CBOT soybean oil prices and increased domestic double - festival stocking demand boost prices, despite high supply. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 8342 and resistance at 8400 [8]. 3.2.5 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has slightly adjusted after a strong rise last week. Positive factors such as active procurement in the western region, reduced seasonal fruit supply, and double - festival stocking support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 8239 and resistance at 8400 [11]. 3.2.6 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates has dropped significantly due to lower - than - expected demand. High inventory and weak terminal demand during the double - festival stocking season pressure prices. The strategy is to close long positions and go short lightly, with support at 10700 and resistance at 10950 [12][14]. 3.2.7 White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar has rebounded steadily. Higher external prices, double - festival stocking demand, and low inventory support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 5540 and resistance at 5594 [15]. 3.2.8 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has dropped significantly. The upcoming large - scale launch of new corn and long - position liquidations have led to price declines. The strategy is to go short lightly, with support at 2150 and resistance at 2188 [17]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has rebounded steadily. Although there is an expectation of increased new cotton production, supply is tight before new cotton is launched. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to whether the 10 - day moving average can be broken, with support at 13855 and resistance at 13985 [20]. 3.2.10 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has rebounded slightly after a decline. High supply in September and weak demand, except for potential double - festival stocking, limit price increases. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 13120 and resistance at 13350 [21][23].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the commodity option data of corn and soybean meal on September 15, 2025, including futures market data, option market data, and option volatility [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices dropped significantly, and option implied volatility rose slightly [1][2] - Soybean meal futures prices declined slightly, and option implied volatility continued to fall [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - Corn futures (C2511) closed at 2167 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 1.37%, with a trading volume of 637,412 and an open interest of 835,212. The trading volume increased by 335,136, and the open interest decreased by 16,551 [2][3] - Soybean meal futures (M2601) closed at 3042 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.20%, with a trading volume of 1,450,741 and an open interest of 2,050,694. The trading volume increased by 712,120, and the open interest increased by 64,488 [2][3] 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics - Corn option trading volume was 117,622, an increase of 66,378, with a trading volume PCR of 0.824 (up 0.086). The open interest was 332,231, an increase of 1,156, and the open interest PCR was 0.528 (down 0.022) [2][8] - Soybean meal option trading volume was 295,003, an increase of 146,268, with a trading volume PCR of 0.612 (up 0.095). The open interest was 903,801, an increase of 3,840, and the open interest PCR was 0.593 (up 0.009) [2][8] 3.3 Option Volatility Situation - Corn option weighted implied volatility was 10.12%, up 0.64 percentage points or 6.75%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 15.22%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.98 [2][17] - Soybean meal option weighted implied volatility was 14.45%, down 0.23 percentage points or 1.59%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 12.41%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.08 [2][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The September USDA supply and demand report lowered the U.S. soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, with an adjustment less than expected. The demand side increased crushing and continued to lower exports, resulting in the ending inventory of U.S. soybeans in the 25/26 season at 300 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations, bringing a certain bearish impact. However, the balance sheet of the new U.S. soybean crop remains tight, supporting the downside of the U.S. soybean futures. Meanwhile, recent rumors of China - U.S. trade negotiations have had a certain bullish impact on the U.S. soybean futures. After a short - term decline due to loss data and short - selling, the U.S. soybean futures rebounded strongly. In addition, the Brazilian premium has declined. Considering the import cost of U.S. soybeans and the premium, it is expected to support the downside of the domestic soybean meal futures. [7] - In China, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the short - term supply pressure of domestic soybean meal is still high, and oil mills are urging customers to pick up goods, putting pressure on the spot basis. Overall, the domestic soybean meal futures are expected to be supported by the import cost and will mainly move in a range. Future focus should be on policy changes between China and the U.S. and between China and Canada. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Data on Basis - For soybean meal, the basis data in different regions on September 12, 2025 are as follows: in Dalian, it is 41; in Tianjin, - 39; in Rizhao, 29; in Zhangjiagang, 29; in Dongguan, - 99; in Zhanjiang, - 59; in Fangcheng, 9. For rapeseed meal in Guangdong, the basis is 56, with a change of - 28. [5] Spread Data - The M1 - RM1 spread is 259, with a change of - 20; the RM1 - 5 spread is 125, with a change of - 22. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the spread of the main futures contracts is 27. [6] Import and Inventory Data - The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan is 42.00. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium shows a certain trend, and the import soybean gross profit on the futures market is 305 yuan per ton, with a change of 5. [6] - The inventory data of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills in different years from 2020 - 2025 are presented, as well as the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises and the inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills. [6] 开机和压榨情况 - The opening rate and soybean crushing volume data of major oil mills in different years from 2020 - 2025 are presented. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a long - term bullish view on the oil and fat industry, with short - term retracement and consolidation [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the report believes that the oil and fat market will rise in the medium and long term, but currently, there is no fundamental driver. It is expected to wait for the bullish drive from the origin supply side to bring a new round of upward trend. The key is to select the right entry point [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bullish, and soybean oil is neutral. The Malaysian report is neutral, and the USDA report on US soybeans is slightly bearish with a downward adjustment in the good - to - excellent rate. Indonesia's low inventory in June and firm export prices support international palm prices, and the anti - dumping deposit on Canadian rapeseed remains, making it difficult for Australian rapeseed imports to supplement rapeseed oil supply [5]. - **Demand**: It is neutral to bearish. The demand for biodiesel in Indonesia and the US is lower than previously expected, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil and fat trading volumes compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral to bearish. The total domestic oil and fat inventory continued to increase last week, creating a bearish expectation gap compared to the previous "peak inventory and destocking" expectation, mainly affecting the weakening of the basis and the monthly spread [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is neutral to bearish. Trump's visit to China may bring expectations of trade talks, Indonesia is expected to implement B45 next year, and the US biodiesel RVO remains uncertain [5]. - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term retracement and consolidation. It maintains the view of a medium - to - long - term rise in oil and fat, waiting for bullish drivers from the origin supply side [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and go long on dips. For arbitrage, go long on oil and short on meal in the far - month contracts. For options, buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - This part presents multiple charts related to the closing prices of oil and fat main contracts, price spreads, and spot price differences, but no specific text analysis is provided [7][9][14][15]. PART THREE: Fundamentals of Oil and Fat Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asia**: It shows data on Southeast Asian weather, including precipitation and temperature forecasts, as well as Indonesia's and Malaysia's monthly supply and demand data for palm oil, such as production, export volume, and inventory [19][21][31][37]. - **India**: It presents India's monthly imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the international soybean - palm oil price spread [44]. - **China**: It includes data on China's palm oil import profit, supply and demand, such as import volume, trading volume, and inventory, as well as data on soybean and rapeseed, including US soybean production conditions, US and Brazilian soybean exports, and Canada and EU rapeseed production and exports, and China's domestic processing and inventory of related oils [50][61][73][88][97].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of peanuts is still low, and downstream demand remains weak. Peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short term. The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is acceptable. The new - season peanut production is expected to increase, and the planting cost will decrease. Peanut futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 7840, down 10 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 25 (up 38.89%) and an open interest of 438 (down 0.45%); PK510 closed at 7800, unchanged, with a trading volume of 6,694 (down 53.37%) and an open interest of 14,338 (down 20.70%); PK601 closed at 7792, down 18 (-0.23%), with a trading volume of 9,851 (down 18.96%) and an open interest of 40,281 (up 5.39%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the price of peanuts in Henan decreased, while that in the Northeast increased. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; that in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.15 yuan/jin, up 0.2 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.3 - 4.35 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of peanuts in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable. The price of imported Sudan refined new peanuts was 8150 yuan/ton, and that of Senegalese oil - peanuts was 7600 - 7800 yuan/ton, stable. The price of peanut oil was stable, with domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the 48 - protein peanut meal was 3260 yuan/ton [5][9]. - **Price Difference**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 48, down 8; the PK04 - PK10 spread was 40, down 10; the PK10 - PK01 spread was 8, up 18 [3]. 2. Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan decreased, while that in the Northeast increased. It is expected that the peanut spot price will be relatively stable in the short term. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, and the mainstream transaction price before the stop was 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton, with the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 8050 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Peanut 11 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. After stabilizing, one can try to go long on Peanut 05 [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: Wait and see [13]. - **Options**: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [14]. 4. Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between Peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between Peanut 1 - 4 contracts [16][22][25].

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract for rapeseed meal futures opening at 2533.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 2.23% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future of rapeseed meal prices, with Donghai Futures noting high inventory pressures but potential for upward movement due to low rapeseed stocks and unchanged policy expectations [1] - Ruida Futures highlights reduced supply pressure from lower rapeseed arrivals and increased seasonal demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture, while also noting the impact of trade negotiations between China and Canada on rapeseed imports [1] Group 2 - The upcoming round of talks between China and the US is crucial, with the USDA report indicating a slight reduction in US soybean yield but an increase in harvested area, leading to a neutral to slightly bearish outlook [2] - Domestic soybean meal remains in a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, with short-term supply limiting price increases, suggesting a wide fluctuation in soybean and rapeseed meal prices [2] - Recommendations for soybean meal trading include a support level reference between 2900-3000 CNY [2]