Report Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the long term, short - term upside limited [1] - Gold: Sideways in the short term, risk of pull - back after rally [1] - Copper: Bearish [1] - Aluminum: Sideways to bearish [1] - Alumina: Sideways to bullish [1] - Zinc: Bearish, look for shorting opportunities [1] - Nickel: Sideways, short - term shorting opportunities, long - term bearish due to surplus [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways, short - term trading, look for cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Tin: Sideways in the short term, risk of price decline in the long term [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways, fundamental weakening [1] - Manganese Silicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Black Metals: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term due to surplus [1] - Coking Coal: Sideways, avoid shorting in the short term, look for cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Coke: Sideways, look for selling - hedging opportunities when futures are at a premium [1] - Palm Oil: Look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Canola Oil: Bearish in the short term [1] - Cotton: Sideways to bearish [1] - Sugar: Bullish due to expected production increase [1] - Corn: Sideways, look for shorting opportunities for 001 contract [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways, look for buying opportunities on dips [1] - Pulp: Do not chase the rally [1] - Logs: Sideways [1] - Live Pigs: Futures stable [1] - Fuel Oil: Bullish in the short term due to consumption and supply factors [1] - Asphalt: Volatile due to cost and demand factors [1] - Shanghai Rubber: Sideways to bearish [1] - BR Rubber: Sideways with some support [1] - PTA: Sideways [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways [1] - Short - fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bearish [1] - Urea: Sideways [1] - PE: Sideways to bullish [1] - PP: Sideways to bullish [1] - PVC: Sideways to bullish [1] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [1] - LPG: Sideways to bearish [1] - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, expected price peak in mid - July [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to be bullish in the short term due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, and positive market sentiment [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank limit upside [1] - Gold prices will mainly fluctuate due to market uncertainties [1] - Copper prices face a risk of catch - up decline due to inflation and tariff factors [1] - Aluminum prices will move sideways to bearishly due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory build - up [1] - Alumina prices will stabilize and rise due to supply - side reform expectations [1] - Zinc prices are under pressure, and shorting opportunities should be watched [1] - Nickel prices will move sideways, with short - term shorting opportunities and long - term surplus pressure [1] - Stainless steel futures will move sideways, and cash - and - carry opportunities should be grasped [1] - Tin prices have short - term support but face a risk of decline in the long term [1] - Polysilicon is bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium carbonate prices will move sideways [1] - Iron ore has good market sentiment but weakening fundamentals [1] - Black metals are bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term due to supply - demand imbalance [1] - Coking coal and coke should focus on cash - and - carry and selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Palm oil should look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Cotton prices will move sideways to bearishly [1] - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production should be watched [1] - Corn prices will move sideways, and shorting opportunities for the 001 contract should be watched [1] - Soybean meal prices will move sideways, and buying opportunities on dips should be considered [1] - Pulp should not be chased higher [1] - Live pig futures are stable [1] - Fuel oil and asphalt prices are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Rubber prices will move sideways to bearishly [1] - Chemical product prices are affected by supply, demand, cost, and other factors, showing different trends [1] - Container shipping to Europe is in a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation, with an expected price peak in mid - July [1] Summary by Category Index - Short - term bullish trend due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, and positive market sentiment [1] Treasury Bonds - Bullish in the long term due to asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upside limited by central bank - hinted interest rate risks [1] Gold - Sideways in the short term due to market uncertainties, risk of pull - back after rally [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Bearish due to inflation and tariff factors [1] - Aluminum: Sideways to bearish due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory build - up [1] - Alumina: Sideways to bullish due to supply - side reform expectations [1] - Zinc: Bearish, look for shorting opportunities due to inventory build - up pressure [1] - Nickel: Sideways, short - term shorting opportunities, long - term surplus pressure [1] - Stainless Steel: Sideways, focus on cash - and - carry opportunities [1] - Tin: Sideways in the short term, risk of decline in the long term [1] Energy and Chemicals - Polysilicon: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways, fundamental weakening [1] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Supply - demand balanced [1] - Black Metals: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term due to supply - demand imbalance [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Focus on cash - and - carry and selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil and Asphalt: Affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Rubber: Sideways to bearish [1] - Chemical Products: Different trends affected by supply, demand, cost, etc [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Look for buying opportunities on pull - backs [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways [1] - Canola Oil: Bearish in the short term [1] - Cotton: Sideways to bearish [1] - Sugar: Bullish due to expected production increase in Brazil [1] - Corn: Sideways, look for shorting opportunities for the 001 contract [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways, look for buying opportunities on dips [1] Others - Pulp: Do not chase the rally [1] - Live Pigs: Futures stable [1] - Container Shipping to Europe: Stable reality and weak expectation, expected price peak in mid - July [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current market environment shows a significant decline across all asset classes, including both risk assets and safe-haven assets like gold, which recently dropped below $3,200 per ounce, indicating a state of confusion among market participants [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments - The U.S. Treasury market is under substantial downward pressure, with current price levels comparable to those seen on April 2, when tariffs were first introduced. This situation suggests that the warning signals for the U.S. economy remain active, necessitating further efforts to support the market through both messaging and domestic policy [2][4]. - Recent developments in U.S. trade relations, particularly with Japan and South Korea, are progressing, although specific details have not been disclosed by the U.S. or China. The speed of these negotiations appears to be relatively fast, as reported by South Korean media [3]. - The U.S. internal policy regarding tax cuts has reached the House of Representatives. If passed, this could provide some stimulus to the macro economy, which is crucial for economic recovery [3]. - Domestic economic indicators in China have shown disappointing results, particularly in April, where new credit issuance was only around 2,800 million, falling short of expectations. This indicates a lack of robust demand for credit, as much of the financing was attributed to bill financing rather than genuine credit demand [5][6]. - The data reflects a cautious approach from both consumers and businesses regarding loans, with a notable decrease in household loans for home purchases and a lack of substantial investment from enterprises [6][7]. - The recent easing of tariff pressures has created a complex situation for the domestic market, leading to uncertainty about future expectations. This environment may result in a period of volatility, with slight upward movements but no significant breakthroughs anticipated [7][8]. - Market sentiment has shown slight recovery, with trading volumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropping to 1.15 trillion, indicating a period of struggle and indecision in the market [8]. - The technical pattern observed in gold suggests a bearish outlook, with the recent price action forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, indicating weak buying support and leading to hesitance among short-term investors [9]. Other Important Insights - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a desire for stability and gradual recovery, with the expectation that any significant upward movement will require stronger catalysts [8]. - The current state of the market is described as a "struggle period," where maintaining stability is seen as a positive outcome amidst the prevailing uncertainties [8][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

长期国债收益率连创新高，显示了投资者对日本经济的悲观态度。 特约评论员 熊夏柠 据相关报道，截至7 月 14 日，日本10年期国债收益率升至近两个月高点，至1.55%。这是自5月23日以 来的最高水平。同时，30年期日本国债收益率上涨6.5个基点至3.111%，而20年期日本国债收益率上涨 至2.56%。两年期日本国债收益率小幅上涨至 0.775%，五年期日本国债收益率上涨至1.066%。 长期国债收益率连创新高，显示了投资者对日本经济的悲观态度，虽然此前日本政府认为没有必要采取 特别应对措施，但是考虑到通胀、关税等因素，会否对日本即将到来的参议院选举平添影响或是变数 呢？ 日本通胀的抬头，以及开启加息进程，令市场对加息的预期升温，反映在了国债收益率。日本1月份核 心消费者通胀达到3.2%，为19个月来的最高水平，超过了日本央行设定的2%的目标。 民以食为天，对于日本民众而言，也在经历"米荒"，日本政府认为，这是旅游恢复、餐饮业繁荣、大米 需求量激增等多因素造成大米短缺并拉升了零售价格。相关数据显示，2020年至2023年，日本大米产量 减少超过60万吨；2023年大米收成更是创历史最低，仅达到661万吨。日 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The expiration of the tariff suspension period has cooled global risk appetite. The US tax - cut bill has been passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index. In China, the PMI data in June continued to rise, and domestic consumption policies and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and the appreciation of the RMB have also improved market sentiment [2]. - The overall view on asset classes is that the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with cautious long positions recommended; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious observation recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals are expected to rebound from low - level fluctuations, with cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate strongly, with cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are expected to fluctuate, with cautious observation; precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious long positions [2]. Group 2: Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as cross - border payment, gaming, and banking, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The recovery of China's June PMI data, strengthened domestic consumption policies, and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and RMB appreciation have also improved market sentiment. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward momentum has increased. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The precious metals market oscillated last week. With the Middle - East cease - fire agreement, the focus shifted to the Russia - Ukraine war, and overall risk cooled in the short term. The approaching tariff deadline and the US - Vietnam agreement have increased optimistic tariff expectations. However, trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing. The better - than - expected non - farm data has cooled the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the rebound of US bond yields has suppressed gold prices. The "Big Beautiful Act" will increase debt pressure, providing long - term support for gold. The tariff negotiation situation will be the main short - term influencing factor, and the volatility of gold is expected to rise in the short term [5]. Group 4: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, but trading volume remained low. Overseas, tariff policies need attention; domestically, the "anti - involution" policy is a factor. The news of Tangshan's production restrictions led to a rebound in the futures market, increasing speculative demand, but the off - season still affected terminal demand. On the supply side, the impact of production - restriction policies emerged, with a 1.44 - million - ton week - on - week decline in hot - metal production, while the output of finished products still increased slightly. Cost support remained strong. The steel market is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. Hot - metal production decreased by 1.44 million tons last week after two consecutive weeks of rebound, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. In terms of supply, the shipping volume decreased by 149 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 178 million tons. Although the second and third quarters are the peak shipping seasons, the shipping volume may decline after the end - of - quarter rush. The port inventory increased by 46.67 million tons. Iron ore is expected to be strong in the short term due to macro factors but may decline in the medium term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday. The output of five major steel products increased, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded slightly, driving up the spot price of manganese ore. The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased by 1.13% to 40.34%, and the daily output increased by 125 tons. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is being depleted slowly, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly in the short term. The silicon iron and silicon manganese markets are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7][8]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Tariff news is uncertain. Although Trump threatened higher tariffs, it may be a negotiation strategy. The US is likely to impose at least a 10% tariff in the long run. The non - farm data was better than expected, but the private - sector employment slowed, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts cooled. In 2025, China's refined copper output continued to increase. From January to May, the copper output reached 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. After excluding sample expansion, the increase was still 6.7%. Despite high production, the copper inventory is in good condition, at a relatively low level [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price fell slightly last Friday, affected by the overall decline in commodities. The weighted open interest of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 7654 lots. The LME inventory continued to increase. Domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods started to accumulate inventory, indicating the end of the de - stocking phase. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase, following the seasonal trend. The warehouse receipts increased significantly [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The industry has entered the off - season, with weak growth in manufacturing orders. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum has supported the price of cast aluminum alloy from the cost side. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 7.13% for two consecutive weeks, although still at a relatively low level. The supply from Myanmar's Wa State is becoming more relaxed. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry, an important downstream of tin solder, is in the off - season, with a decrease in orders. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak, and the demand for tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals is stable. As the tin price rises, the downstream is hesitant to buy, and the inventory increased by 658 tons this week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be restricted in the medium term due to high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and declining demand [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate - On the supply side, there is a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. The "anti - involution" policy has boosted the macro - sentiment, and the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated strongly. The price of lithium ore has rebounded significantly, but the production of lithium carbonate remains high due to reduced smelting losses. On the demand side, the output of power cells decreased in June, but the output of energy - storage cells increased significantly. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and batteries increased. The current price is close to the cost of mica - integrated production, providing strong cost support [11]. Industrial Silicon - There are short - term positive impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The start - up rate in the southwest increased last week, but the number of open furnaces in the north decreased, leading to a decline in weekly output. The "anti - involution" theme has boosted expectations [11]. Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, driven by the production cut of industrial silicon and the "anti - involution" theme. Due to high industry concentration, the price has greater elasticity. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continue to decline [12]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased daily production by 548,000 barrels, and with continued production growth in South America in the second half of the year, the downward trend of oil prices is more certain. Although the short - term spot price has not been clearly affected by over - supply, it may be supported in the short term, but refinery profits may be affected after the peak - season profit period, and purchasing willingness may decline [13]. Asphalt - The oil price is running at a low level, and the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the factory inventory is being depleted slowly. The basis has rebounded, and the social inventory has limited accumulation. As the demand approaches the peak season, the inventory depletion situation needs to be monitored. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the oil price in the short term [14]. PX - After the premium of crude oil was reversed, the strong trend of PX changed, and the overseas price weakened to $840. The PXN spread reached $250, and the industry profit declined significantly. The recovery of PTA's start - up rate will provide some support for PX, and the weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of its downstream [14]. PTA - The tightness of the spot market has been significantly relieved, the port inventory has increased, and the basis has declined. The downstream start - up rate has continued to decline to 90.2%. There is still room for the downstream start - up rate to decline, and with the downward trend of crude oil prices due to production increases, the PTA price still has some downward space [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory has been depleted to 540,000 tons. The overall start - up rate has declined, reducing supply pressure. However, the continuous decline of the downstream start - up rate will restrict further inventory depletion. The factory inventory is still being depleted steadily. It is expected to bottom out and follow the polyester sector to operate weakly in the short term [14]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a callback in the short - fiber price. It generally follows the polyester sector to fluctuate strongly. Terminal orders are still average, and the start - up rate continues to decline. The inventory of short - fiber remains high, and inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand in late July. With the weakening cost support, it will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern following the polyester sector in the medium term [15]. Methanol - There are maintenance activities in the inland area, and the arrival volume has decreased. Downstream olefins have maintenance plans. Before the implementation of maintenance, the spot price has some support. The international start - up rate has increased significantly, and the import expectation has risen again, and the supply - demand situation is expected to worsen. It has rebounded slightly under policy disturbances, but the upside is limited, and short - selling opportunities should be monitored [15]. PP - There are both maintenance and new - capacity releases, slightly relieving the supply pressure. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to decline. The crude oil price fluctuates weakly, and the profit of oil - based production is fair. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the price is expected to decline further after the new - capacity release [16][17]. LLDPE - The number of device maintenance has increased, but the overall output is higher than the same period last year. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to weaken. The balance sheet shows an expected inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. There is still room for cost - profit compression [18]. Group 7: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The pricing of the US soybean planting area is settled, and the weather during the key growing period from July to August is crucial. The current hot and humid environment in the US soybean - growing areas is conducive to crop growth, and the probability of extreme drought is low. The market's expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the July USDA supply - demand report. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has supported the US soybean market. The export expectation has improved with positive trade news between China and the US, and the balance - sheet pressure has been further reduced. The CBOT soybean is expected to remain in a stable range [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - start - up rate of oil mills has maintained a stable supply of soybean meal, and the market sentiment is weak. The average monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from July to September in China may be around 1.1 million tons, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve within the 09 - contract period. The short - term stable trend of US soybeans provides some support. The positive news of China - US soybean trade has limited impact on the upward movement of futures prices. In the fourth quarter, the import premium of soybeans and the basis of domestic soybean meal are expected to remain weak. The upward space of soybean meal within the 09 - contract period is limited [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has extended the clean - fuel production tax credit to 2029, which is beneficial to US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil. In China, the rapeseed oil port inventory is high, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The soybean oil inventory is accelerating its recovery, and the risk of inventory accumulation is increasing. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil markets lack independent market - moving factors in the short term and are affected by palm oil. The soybean - palm oil price remains inverted [20][21]. Palm Oil - OPEC+'s planned production increase in August may put pressure on the oil peak season, limiting the boost to international oils. In Malaysia, the production in June decreased by about 4% month - on - month, and the export may increase by 4% - 6% month - on - month. The inventory may shrink to less than 2 million tons. The positive export data in July has boosted market sentiment, but the long - term production increase and the pressure on oil prices are the main limiting factors. In China, the palm oil storage has increased, and the basis is weak. The import profit is in an inverted state, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound and strong trend [21]. Corn - The grassroots price of corn is firm, and the basis is strong. The auction of imported corn had a slightly high premium and good transactions, with limited impact on the production area. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and there are more shutdowns for maintenance during the off - season. Feed enterprises are using more wheat as a substitute for corn, putting pressure on the corn price in Shandong. In July, the import of corn and the substitution of wheat may affect the futures price negatively. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption in August - September, the postponed demand will return, and the corn price is likely to rise [22]. Pork - Leading enterprises have a low willingness to increase production and reduce weight for export. The supply in July is expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the profit expectation for the peak season in August - September is low. The cost of secondary fattening has increased significantly, and the willingness to restock is low. A large - scale concentrated supply of second - fattened pigs is expected in late July and late August, which will limit the upward space of pig prices. The spot price has decreased, and the futures price is expected to decline slightly in the next period [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in response to the declining interest rates and the impact of geopolitical events, particularly the US-China trade tensions, on various asset classes. Group 1: Economic Environment and Investment Strategy - The current economic environment is characterized by a significant decline in inflation, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [1][2] - The interest rates for one-year deposits at major banks have dropped to 0.9%, leading to a diminishing return on traditional savings, which poses challenges for individuals seeking to grow their wealth through savings alone [2][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in a highly uncertain global environment, advocating for a strategy of not putting all eggs in one basket [2][3] Group 2: Asset Classes Overview - A-shares, gold, government bonds, and US Treasuries are identified as the core asset classes for domestic investors, each with distinct risk-return profiles [3] - A-shares are seen as having optimistic potential, contingent on effective domestic policy support for the economy, while the bond market is expected to have limited upside and increased volatility compared to 2024 [3][4] - Gold is recommended for accumulation rather than speculation, as its price may face short-term pressures despite having long-term upward potential due to factors like a weakening dollar and potential tariff increases [3][10] Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The US-China trade conflict is identified as the primary "black swan" event affecting the A-share market, with significant market reactions observed following escalations in trade tensions [4][8] - Despite initial pessimism regarding economic performance post-trade conflict, recent data indicates a stabilization in manufacturing and external trade, contributing to a recovery in A-share prices [6][8] - The article notes that the market's future performance will depend heavily on the resilience of financial stocks and the overall economic outlook [6][8] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The perception of gold as an investment has become more complex, with recent price fluctuations reflecting heightened sensitivity to market conditions and geopolitical developments [10][11] - The article highlights that while gold prices surged earlier in the year, the current market sentiment is cautious, with predictions of potential declines in gold prices due to stronger US economic indicators [10][14] - Long-term prospects for gold remain positive, particularly as a hedge against the declining credibility of the dollar, but short-term volatility is expected [14][16] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shifted from a bullish to a more cautious stance, with lower returns expected in 2025 compared to the previous year, making it more suitable for tactical trading rather than buy-and-hold strategies [17][19] - The article suggests that investors should focus on yield movements in the 10-year government bond market to inform their trading decisions, as the relationship between bond prices and yields is inversely correlated [21][23] - The US Treasury market is under scrutiny due to rising yields, which are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens, indicating a need for careful investment strategies [23][25]

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].