华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 研究报告 油脂周报 利好刺激，油脂大幅上涨 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价大幅上涨，全周豆油 Y2509 合约上涨 4.75%， 以 8156 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2509 合约上涨 4.86%以 8536 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2509 合约上涨 4.47%，以 9726 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 榈油方面：据马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec，马来西亚 6 月 1-20 日棕榈油出口量为 798813 吨，较上月同期出口的 720422 吨 增加 10.88%。马棕榈油上涨 4.79%。 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 23 星期一 豆油方面：6 月 13 日，美国环保署（EPA）公布最新的掺混 标准提案，该提案大幅提高了 2026 年和 2027 年生物质基柴油义 务量目标，将2026 年生物燃料混合总量设定为240.2 亿加仑，202 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8126 | (30) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | | | 8356 | | | | 8366 | 8306 | 240 | | 0 | 230 | 0 | 180 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8520 | (16) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | | | 8740 | | | | 8760 | 8840 | 220 | | -20 | 240 | -50 | 320 | -40 | | 菜油 | 9721 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/06/23 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the Middle East geopolitical conflict shows signs of expansion, with crude oil prices rising continuously. In the short term, edible oils may follow the upward trend of crude oil and US biodiesel, but the upward momentum is weakening. Attention should be paid to Iran's attitude [6][26]. - Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase India's purchases. Continued attention should be paid to the purchasing situations of China and India. Domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil futures market is still strong, with significant price increases [6][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline. SPPOMA estimates that the production in the first 15 days of June decreased by 4%, with the decline narrowing compared to the 17% decrease in the first 10 days. ITS estimates that the exports in the first 20 days of June increased by 14% month - on - month, with the increase rate declining compared to the 26% increase in the first 15 days. It is expected that the inventory in June will be around 2 million tons, showing little change compared to May [10]. - Indonesia may raise the export reference price to around $875 in July, up from $856 in June, but the TAX is expected to remain unchanged, and the levy will increase slightly [10]. 3.2 Domestic Palm Oil - As of June 13, 2025 (Week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 409,600 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 9.93%. The inventory is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes are stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion has narrowed. There were sporadic purchases this week, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. In May, China imported 210,000 tons of palm oil, and the cumulative import from January to May was only 990,000 tons, at a historical low. The apparent consumption in May was basically 210,000 tons, also at a historical low [15]. - The spot market has changed little. The cumulative spot trading volume of palm oil this week was only more than 2,000 tons, significantly less than the 13,000 tons of the previous week. Recently, India has carried out cargo cancellation, but the impact on the futures market is limited. Currently, palm oil shows a fluctuating upward trend due to the Middle East geopolitical situation and US biodiesel policies, but the upward momentum weakens after a rapid increase. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and caution should be exercised against a potential decline from high levels [15]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 847,000 tons, an increase of 34,300 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 4.22%. It is at a relatively neutral to slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis has declined, with the East China region quoting at 09 + 230. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.02%, slightly higher than the previous week [18]. - Currently, soybean oil has a good cost - performance ratio, and the spot trading volume has improved. The cumulative spot trading volume of soybean oil this week was about 110,000 tons, slightly less than the 107,000 tons of the previous week, but at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel situation, the futures market of edible oils has generally risen. Fundamentally, domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. In the short term, edible oils are expected to be relatively strong, but the upward momentum is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels [18]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 71,500 tons, with an operating rate of 19.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 769,000 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous week, still at a historical high. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil is around $1,050, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,400. In May, China imported 340,000 tons of rapeseed, but only 110,000 tons of rapeseed oil, at a relatively low level in the same period of history [23]. - The spot market is booming. The spot trading volume of rapeseed oil this week was 47,000 tons, slightly lower than the 50,000 tons of the previous week, but at a historical high in the same period. The domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable with a slight increase, with the three - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi quoting at 09 + 70. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists. The international relations and the overall trend of edible oils affect the repeated fluctuations of rapeseed oil, and there are many policy - related market changes. Risk management should be carried out [23]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Affected by geopolitical and other factors, edible oils have risen significantly. Continued attention should be paid to the Middle East situation. In the short term, the upward momentum of edible oils is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not for trading purposes) [28]

棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 中东冲突范围扩大 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨188收于4115林吉特/吨，涨幅 4.79%；棕榈油09合约涨396收于8536元/吨，涨幅4.86%； 豆油09合约涨370收于8156元/吨，涨幅4.75%；菜油09合 约涨416收于9726元/吨，涨幅4.47%；CBOT美豆油主连涨 3.85收 ...

当地时间 6月22日，美国总统特朗普发表全国讲话，称伊朗核设施已被"彻底摧毁"，美国的目标是摧毁 伊朗的铀浓缩能力，遏制伊朗构成的核威胁。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称，美国必须等待严厉的惩罚，并表 示将打击美国在中东地区的所有利益，在对以色列的新一轮导弹袭击中，伊朗首次使用了"开伯尔"导 弹。伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最 终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。市场担忧美国介入争端导致中东紧张局势的进一步升级，6 月22日中东股市全线高开。中方强烈谴责美方袭击伊朗，攻击国际原子能机构监管下的核设施，美方此 举严重违反联合国宪章宗旨和原则以及国际法，加剧中东紧张局势。 首席点评：中东局势升级 重点品种：原油、股指、黄金 股指：美国三大指数下跌为主，上一交易日股指分化，小盘股走弱。资金方面， 6月19日融资余额减少 74.79亿元至18091.80亿元。当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于较低水平，中长期资金入市配置的性 价比仍然较高。6月11日中国商务部表示中方与美方已经在原则上达成了一个协议框架。当前市场整体 表现震荡偏多，股指期权隐含波动率也处于历史较低水平，若 ...

Core Insights - The oilseed and oil industry is significantly influenced by natural factors and international market trends, leading to substantial price volatility, which impacts upstream and downstream sectors as well as daily life [1] - The futures market provides effective risk management tools for oilseed and oil-related enterprises, with the introduction of various derivatives like futures and options for rapeseed oil and meal [1][4] - The increasing maturity of the futures market has led to more companies actively using these tools to stabilize operations and manage risks [2] Group 1: Risk Management - Companies utilize futures contracts to hedge against price fluctuations, ensuring stable raw material supply and controllable costs [2] - The integration of futures tools with spot operations allows companies to build more resilient business models and optimize resource allocation [2][3] - The "basis trading" strategy helps companies synchronize sales and raw material procurement, effectively mitigating risks from price volatility [3] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - Futures and options products promote collaborative development across the oilseed and oil industry, with futures prices serving as a key reference for production planning [4] - Farmers can secure sales prices through forward contracts with processing companies, ensuring stable income [4] - The collaborative approach among industry players fosters a risk-sharing mechanism, enhancing competitiveness and ensuring the supply of essential agricultural products [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange aims to continuously support industry enterprises in effectively utilizing futures tools to stabilize the development of the supply chain [5]

油脂周报 | 2025-06-22 受多重利好持续提振，油脂偏强运行 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，本周收盘棕榈油2509合约8536元/吨，环比上涨396元，涨幅4.86%；本周收盘豆油2509合约8156元 /吨，环比上涨370元，涨幅4.75%；本周收盘菜油2509合约9726元/吨，环比上涨416元，涨幅4.47%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格8480元/吨，环比上涨250元，涨幅2.95%，现货基差P09+194，环比下跌146元；天津 地区一级豆油现货价格8340元/吨，环比上涨300元/吨，涨幅3.73%，现货基差Y09+184，环比下跌70元；江苏 地区四级菜油现货价格9910元/吨，环比上涨400元，涨幅4.2%，现货基差OI09+184，环比下跌16元。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，马来西亚棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）最新数据显示，2025年6月1-15日马来西亚棕榈鲜果串单产 减少3.85%，出油率下调0.03%，棕榈油产量减少4%。由于前期产量同比增加幅度明显、基数增大，近期棕榈油 产量环比止增下降，供应方面对价格暂无较大压力，持续关注产区天气情况。周内（6.1 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂周报 美生柴政策利好影响还未消退 油脂短期或震荡偏强 20250622 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：陈小国 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 产业链结构 产业链结构 ◆ 总的来看，在原油强势以及美国生柴政策利好的情况下，油脂短期或震荡偏强。 ◆ 豆油方面，未来一周爱荷华、明尼苏达州一带有比较明显的降雨，玉米带东部以及密苏里州等区域则没什么 降雨；第二周中西部各地雨势比较一般，堪萨斯等大平原中北部一带气温也比较高。总体看，未来大半个月 中西部主产区大部分区域的雨势不太有利于大豆生长。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，SPPOMA数据显示，2025年6月1-15日马棕产量减少4%。ITS和Amspec数据显示，马来西亚6月1-20 日棕榈油出口量较上月同期出口增加14.31%和10.88%。6月的马棕产量小幅下降，同时出口数据大幅增加，利 好棕榈油。 ◆ 菜油方面，近期国内菜油库存有所下降，但仍处于历史同期高位，供应充足，后期国内菜籽进口 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/06/20 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...