1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is average, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass is showing a strong upward trend with supply - side disturbances, while soda ash is in a weak downward trend. For the double - silicon products, the market sentiment is cautious, and the alloys are fluctuating [1][3] - The overall strategy is that glass and silicon products are in a fluctuating state, while soda ash is in a weak fluctuating state [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market showed a strong upward trend yesterday, and the spot market prices remained stable with good sales by manufacturers [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market showed a weak downward trend yesterday, and the spot market was cautious, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. Although some production lines have been gradually shut down for maintenance, the production reduction is still insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. The market anticipates a peak season after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the progress of glass production line shutdowns [1] - Soda ash: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash is relatively limited. Some soda ash plants have completed maintenance, and supply has rebounded. Considering the future new production projects of soda ash and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, it is necessary to suppress the production profits of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Fluctuating [2] - Soda ash: Weakly fluctuating [2] 3.2 Double - Silicon Products (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated yesterday. Before the festival, steel mills' inventory replenishment has gradually ended, and mainstream steel mills have not launched a new round of tenders. The prices are relatively firm. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures market fluctuated yesterday. The spot market transactions were average, and downstream inventory replenishment was mainly for rigid demand. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved. There is an expected increase in molten iron production in the future, and the demand for silicon manganese will improve marginally. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. Recently, the South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, which may increase the cost of manganese ore in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production of steel mills, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of silicon iron suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of silicon iron and the power price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Fluctuating [4] - Silicon Iron: Fluctuating [4]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 摘要： 生产端看，开工率边际回暖，工业品库存、产能利用率分化。开工率方 面，1 月，247 家高炉开工率 78.96%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉开工 率、螺纹钢开工率分别为 62.44%、38.77%，高于上月均值。水泥磨机开 工率为 27.92%，较上月回落；除沥青外，化工品开工率普遍回升：石油 沥青开工率均值为 26.23%，低于上月；纯碱、PVC、PTA 开工率均值分 别为 84.36%、79.12%、76.10%，均较上月明显提升。库存方面，冷 轧、热卷、浮法玻璃去库，环比增速分别为-3.58%、-7.91%、-7.63%， 螺纹钢、铁矿石、炼焦煤库存上升，环比增速分别为 4.57%、6.65%、 0.36；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回落，环比分别为-4.28%、 10.93%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略下降，录得 76.38%；电炉 产能利用率为 53.74%，较上期均值略提升；水泥熟料 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure, and its futures prices are weak. The support for coal - coke replenishment is gradually weakening, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures prices are oscillating. There are disturbances on the supply side of glass, but the oversupply situation limits the upside space of glass and soda ash futures prices. Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the futures prices are under pressure, but there is still replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, and the cost side still provides support. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and the post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand on the real - world side remain to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the prices of finished steel products [2] Carbon Element - The growth space for coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline, and the fundamentals of coking coal will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. When the futures prices rise to a high level, they may face selling - hedging pressure. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. In the long - term, the futures prices may still oscillate around the cost valuation [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances on the glass supply side, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress prices, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the prices will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no expectation of negative feedback, and the cost side provides support. The futures prices are expected to oscillate widely. The spot market transactions are generally weak, the profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the iron - water output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has slightly increased. The demand for building materials has weakened seasonally, while the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the spot and futures prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, the arrivals have continued to weaken, and the supply side is subject to weather - related disturbance expectations. The iron - water output has slightly decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' replenishment has accelerated. The port inventory has continued to increase, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand both decline seasonally, and the price in East China has increased slightly. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the finished steel products. The arrival volume of steel mills will decline seasonally, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and blast furnaces will decrease, and the inventory of steel enterprises has increased [10] - **Coke**: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices remain oscillating. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [11][13] - **Coking Coal**: The online auctions show a mixed trend of rising and falling, and the futures prices oscillate. The domestic coal mine production will gradually decline before the holiday, and the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [14] - **Glass**: As the holiday approaches, the demand weakens, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The supply may be disturbed, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high, and the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices [15] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains at a high level, and the prices oscillate. The overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [15][18] - **Manganese - Silicon**: The inventory pressure remains high, and the prices fluctuate around the cost. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the production - control efforts of manufacturers [19] - **Silicon - Iron**: The trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the upside of the futures prices is under pressure. The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity before the holiday suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overall, in January, the supply of soda ash increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventories slightly accumulated, with fundamental pressure still present. In February, the supply level still has room for improvement, and as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, the demand for soda ash will continue to shrink. Therefore, the loose supply - demand situation of soda ash is expected to deepen, and the inventory pressure on enterprises before the Spring Festival will further increase. Meanwhile, the warming of external macro - sentiment, important domestic meetings in early March, and the trends of coal and black varieties in the futures market all have a linkage effect on the futures price of soda ash. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate in the bottom - range in February, and the oversupply situation will continue to deepen in the medium - term. If there are no unexpectedly positive factors in the macro and policy aspects, the futures and spot prices of soda ash will be under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the full - production time of new capacities, changes in enterprise inventories, purchasing power of the middle and lower reaches, downstream production capacities and operating conditions, macro - policies, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market [4][24]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - In January, there were few domestic device maintenance enterprises, and with the release of new capacities, the supply steadily recovered. In February, there will still be enterprises resuming production after maintenance, and the new capacities will continue to increase, so the supply in February is expected to further increase. As of January 30, the overall operating rate of soda ash devices was 84.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.89%; the weekly output of soda ash was 78.31 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.14 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46 tons. The total output of soda ash in January was about 3.4138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 233,300 tons, with a growth rate of 7.34%. In February, Southern Alkali Industry has a maintenance plan, and other enterprises have no clear maintenance plans for the time being. However, there will still be enterprises resuming production after maintenance, and the load of new capacities will continue to increase, so the supply level of soda ash will increase again, and it is possible that the weekly output will exceed 800,000 tons [6]. - In January, the inventory of soda ash enterprises first increased and then decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period in history. As of January 30, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.51%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 828,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 194,000 tons. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival in February, downstream enterprises will shut down for holidays and logistics will stop, so there is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the market will still face relatively high inventory pressure year - on - year after the Spring Festival [8][9]. - In January, the profit of the soda ash joint - alkali process slightly improved, while the profit of the ammonia - alkali process continued to decline, but the overall situation was still in a loss. As of January 30, the production cost of soda ash for ammonia - alkali manufacturers in North China was 1,380.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of soda ash manufacturers was - 160.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton; the production cost of soda ash for joint - alkali manufacturers in East China was 1,274.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of soda ash manufacturers was - 94.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. In February, the supply - demand situation may not improve, and it is expected that the industry profit will continue to be in a loss. In the medium - term, in the long - cycle of soda ash oversupply, low industry profit may become the norm, but continuous industry losses will support a partial reduction in phased supply [10]. Demand Side - In January, the supply of float glass continued to decline, and there is still an expectation of further decline in February. As of January 30, 2026, the production profit of float glass using coal as raw material was - 68.50 (- 3.39) yuan/ton, the production profit using petroleum coke as raw material was 1.07 (+ 2.85) yuan/ton, and the production profit using natural gas as raw material was - 155.12 (+ 3.57) yuan/ton. Except for the coal - based process, the process profits of petroleum coke and natural gas improved month - on - month, but the overall industry profit was still poor. In January, 1 float glass production line was ignited, 3 production lines were shut down for water release, and 1 previously ignited production line started to produce glass, resulting in little change in the number of operating production lines. The weekly output decreased from 1.075125 million tons to 1.056965 million tons, and the industry operating rate decreased from 73.04% to 71.86%. After the Spring Festival, there are still plans to shut down production lines for cold repair, with a maximum daily melting volume of 2,500 tons per day. If implemented, the daily melting volume of float glass in production will drop to about 148,500 tons [13]. - In January, the inventory of float glass enterprises decreased. The ending inventory decreased from 56.866 million weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 7.57%, and it has now fallen to the historical median level. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation for glass factories. In addition, the inventory levels of middle - stream goods in core regions such as Hebei and Hubei are also at a high level, and the market will face double high - inventory pressures from manufacturers and traders after the Spring Festival [14]. - As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was - 17.20% (- 1.30%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate construction area was - 10.00% (- 0.40%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in newly started construction area was - 20.40% (+ 0.10%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate completion area was - 18.10% (- 0.10%), and the cumulative year - on - year decline in commercial housing sales area was - 8.70% (- 0.90%). In December 2025, the production and sales of automobiles decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production and sales of automobiles in December were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 and 157,000 respectively. From January to December 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.4% in production and 9.4% in sales [15][17]. - As of December 2025, the monthly actual consumption of soda ash was 3.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons, with a growth rate of 2.64%. In February, the domestic soda ash market is not optimistic, with prices fluctuating at the bottom and expectations of decreased transactions and consumption. In December 2025, China's soda ash imports were 3,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons, with a growth rate of 1278%; exports were 232,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,400 tons, with a growth rate of 22.91%. From January to December, the cumulative imports were 25,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 97.41%; the cumulative exports were 2.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.75%. It is expected that in 2026, the high - level export of soda ash will continue, and the import window is almost non - existent [19]. Recent Macro - event Dynamics - On January 30, 2026, US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman to replace Jerome Powell, whose term will end in May 2026. Warsh is expected to support interest rate cuts but will not adopt the more radical policy - easing measures advocated by some other potential candidates, which has caused significant fluctuations in the global financial market, with a neutral - bearish rating [21]. - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected. Fed Chairman Powell said that the economic growth outlook has significantly improved, and the risks of inflation and employment have both decreased, suggesting that there is no urgent need to further reduce borrowing costs. This is the first pause after a continuous interest - rate cut cycle, and this result was widely expected in the financial market, with a neutral rating [21]. - The Iranian President has ordered the start of nuclear negotiations with the US, and the two sides are likely to hold high - level talks in Istanbul, Turkey on February 6, with a neutral rating [21]. Summary and Outlook - Overall, in January, the supply of soda ash increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventories slightly accumulated, with fundamental pressure still present. In February, the supply level still has room for improvement, and as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, the demand for soda ash will continue to shrink. The loose supply - demand situation of soda ash is expected to deepen, and the inventory pressure on enterprises before the Spring Festival will further increase. The warming of external macro - sentiment, important domestic meetings in early March, and the trends of coal and black varieties in the futures market all have a linkage effect on the futures price of soda ash. It is expected that the futures price of soda ash will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in February. In the medium - term, the oversupply situation will continue to deepen. If there are no unexpectedly positive factors in the macro and policy aspects, the futures and spot prices of soda ash will be under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the full - production time of new capacities, changes in enterprise inventories, purchasing power of the middle and lower reaches, downstream production capacities and operating conditions, macro - policies, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has declined, leading to price drops. The core contradiction lies in the fact that steel mills' profits support high blast furnace operating rates, but terminal demand seasonally shrinks before the Spring Festival, resulting in light trading volume and increasing inventory. Cost provides support, and prices are unlikely to fall significantly under policy constraints, oscillating in the bottom range [3]. - The iron ore industry is in a supply - demand off - season with no prominent contradictions. Supported by steel mills' inventory replenishment and the recovery of hot metal production, the downside price space is limited [24]. - Affected by overseas supply disruptions, international coking coal prices are strong, and domestic Shanxi coal prices are also firm. The coking coal basis is at a relatively high level. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be more volatile. In the long - term, the market will focus on the resumption of domestic coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [37]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. Silicon manganese is suppressed by high inventory, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better. In the short term, ferroalloys are expected to oscillate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [50]. - The temporary upsurge in commodity sentiment may drive up some undervalued varieties. If the futures prices rise, there is some room for mid - and downstream inventory replenishment, but demand is average with limited elasticity. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, photovoltaic glass inventory continues to accumulate, and the balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. High exports of soda ash alleviate domestic pressure to some extent, while high inventory in the upper and middle reaches restricts prices [64]. - Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, both the actual and expected demand are weak. In the context of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are still waiting for cold repair and ignition, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy may also disrupt supply. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3182 yuan/ton, 3099 yuan/ton, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3310 yuan/ton, 3265 yuan/ton, and 3286 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3311 yuan/ton, 3230 yuan/ton, 3140 yuan/ton respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3260 yuan/ton, 3270 yuan/ton respectively [10][12]. Other Data - The 01 - 05 rebar spread was 82 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [4]. - The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 48 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 50 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [10][12]. - The 01 roll - rebar spread was 120 yuan/ton, and the roll - rebar spot spread in Shanghai was 30 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [17]. - The ratios of 01 rebar to 01 iron ore and 01 rebar to 01 coke were both 4 and 2 respectively on February 3, 2026 [21]. Iron Ore Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 749 yuan/ton, 777.5 yuan/ton, and 760 yuan/ton respectively [25]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Karara powder, and Rizhao Super Special powder were 786 yuan/ton, 886 yuan/ton, and 675 yuan/ton respectively [25]. Fundamental Data - On January 30, 2026, the daily average hot metal production was 227.98 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons [31]. Coal and Coke Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the 09 - 01 coking coal spread was - 171.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 coke spread was - 93.5 yuan/ton [40]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1630 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [43]. Other Data - The on - site coking profit was - 24 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [40]. - The main coking coal to power coal ratio was 2.4035 on February 3, 2026 [43]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On February 3, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5450 yuan/ton [51]. Silicon Manganese - On February 3, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 194 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [52]. Other Data - The double - silicon spread was - 216 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [52]. Soda Ash Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1201 yuan/ton, 1265 yuan/ton, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively [65]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the heavy soda ash market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash market price was 1200 yuan/ton [65]. Other Data - The 5 - 9 spread of soda ash was - 64 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [65]. Glass Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1072 yuan/ton, 1176 yuan/ton, and 1230 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Spot Prices - Not provided in a comprehensive way in the given content. Other Data - The 5 - 9 spread of glass was - 104 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [89]. - On January 30, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of glass in Shahe was 102%, and in Hubei was 75% [90].

Group 1: Cement Industry - The demand for cement in developing countries is steadily increasing, with a favorable competitive landscape, leading to significantly higher profit per ton compared to domestic markets. Companies actively expanding into overseas markets are expected to perform better [1] - The domestic cement market is expected to face pressure in Q4 2025, while overseas performance is anticipated to be stronger. Non-operating projects may impact profits [1] - Cement prices and profits are expected to stabilize in 2025, with a slight seasonal rebound in Q4 2025 due to a temporary increase in coal prices. However, year-on-year pressure on prices and profits is expected in Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Glass Industry - The float glass industry is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with weak downstream demand leading to continued losses. Some small to medium enterprises are reducing production, resulting in a slight decrease in capacity [2] - The photovoltaic glass segment is expected to see a decrease in volume but an increase in price in Q4 2025, leading to significant pressure on revenue and profits. The demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to be impacted by earlier demand surges [2] Group 3: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber sector is projected to experience high growth in revenue and profits in 2025, driven by strong demand in wind power and thermoplastics. Domestic net demand for glass fiber is expected to reach 5.48 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19% [3] - High-end electronic fabric is expected to see a simultaneous increase in both price and volume, benefiting companies with a first-mover advantage. The price of 7628 electronic fabric is projected to be 4.1 yuan per meter in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9% [3] Group 4: Renovation and Building Materials - The renovation and building materials sector is expected to face continued pressure in 2025, with significant declines in housing starts, completions, and sales. The year-on-year declines for these metrics are projected to be 21%, 18%, and 8%, respectively [4] - The competitive landscape in the renovation and building materials sector is intensifying, with many companies exploring new business avenues to maintain resilience in performance [4]

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 2026年2月3日，金晶科技（sh600586）触及涨停，涨停价6.4元，涨幅9.97%，总市值90.71亿元，流通市 值90.71亿元，截止发稿，总成交额6.02亿元。 根据喜娜AI异动分析，金晶科技涨停原因可能如下，股份回购+治理优化+财务减负： 1、公司完成1亿 元股份回购用于员工激励，这显示出管理层对公司未来发展的信心。同时，公司进行治理结构优化，设 立战略委员会、精简董事会，可能提高决策效率，这些积极举措对股价起到一定的刺激作用。 2、借款 利率下降使得公司财务费用降低，减轻了财务负担。并且公司三季度经营活动现金流为正，具备一定现 金流入能力，这两个因素一定程度上缓解了市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The report anticipates significant growth in revenue and profit for fiberglass in Q4 2025, while traditional building materials face performance pressure [1] - The overall outlook for the cement industry indicates continued price and profit stabilization, with domestic pressures expected to persist [4][7] - The glass industry is projected to experience ongoing revenue and profit pressure, particularly in the float glass segment due to weak downstream demand [14][20] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see robust growth driven by increased demand for raw yarn and high-end fabrics [28] Summary by Sections Cement - Q4 2025 is expected to see domestic cement performance under pressure, while overseas markets may perform better. The average national cement price is projected at 357 RMB per ton, down 16% year-on-year [7] - The report notes that the cement industry is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with a year-on-year production decline of 7% from January to November 2025 [7] - Non-operating projects may impact profits, with companies accelerating capacity replacement and asset disposals [4][7] Glass - The float glass industry is expected to remain under pressure, with high inventory levels and ongoing losses. The average price for 5mm float glass is projected at 62 RMB per box in Q4 2025, down 17% year-on-year [14] - The photovoltaic glass segment is also expected to face significant revenue and profit pressure due to weak domestic installation demand, with a projected average price of 12.3 RMB per square meter in Q4 2025 [20] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is projected to see continued high growth in revenue and profit, with domestic net demand reaching 5.48 million tons, a 19% year-on-year increase [28] - The average price for mainstream products is expected to be 3,603 RMB per ton in 2025, with a slight decrease in Q4 [28] - High-end electronic fabric prices are expected to rise, benefiting companies with a first-mover advantage [28] Renovation Materials - The renovation materials sector is expected to face continued pressure, with a year-on-year decline in housing starts, completions, and sales area [4] - Companies are exploring new business channels to maintain resilience in performance [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the construction materials sector is showing strong performance, with expectations for price increases in various categories such as waterproofing, coatings, and cement due to improving demand and economic conditions in 2026. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring post-Spring Festival demand recovery and price adjustments [4][5] - The cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with a notable decline in demand, particularly in the housing market. However, mid-term prospects suggest that production capacity may decrease under policies limiting overproduction, potentially leading to improved profit margins [4][9] - The glass industry is facing ongoing demand pressures, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement. Supply-side adjustments are expected to keep prices low in the short term [5][16] - The fiber glass sector is experiencing a demand boost driven by the AI industry, with expectations for significant growth in both volume and price [5] - The consumer building materials sector is anticipated to see a bottoming out of profits, with strong price increase demands following years of competitive pricing [5] Summary by Sections Cement - The national cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with December 2025 production at 144 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%. Demand is expected to weaken further due to seasonal factors and the upcoming Spring Festival [9] Glass - The glass industry is under pressure, with high inventory levels among intermediaries and limited demand recovery. Recent supply-side adjustments have not alleviated the overall supply-demand imbalance, leading to expectations of continued low price fluctuations [16] Fiber Glass - The fiber glass sector is benefiting from demand related to the AI industry, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price as the industry evolves [5] Consumer Building Materials - The sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with several categories like waterproofing and coatings announcing price increases, indicating a potential turnaround in 2026 [5]

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton [4][27] - As of February 1, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade is 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23% from the previous period [5][28] - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the market is expected to shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU&NR&Sicom prices in the short term [5][28] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.2%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.6 percentage points to 81.6%, indicating a stable supply [6][29] - The demand side shows that downstream PTA facilities have many maintenance plans in the first quarter, which may affect PX demand [6][29] - The first quarter is expected to see a loosening of the PX supply-demand structure, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated [6][29] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load remains stable at 76.6%, which is low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [7][30] - The demand side is weak, with new orders declining and factory operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continuing to fall [7][30] - The PTA spot basis is expected to weaken due to reduced polyester production, leading to inventory pressure in the first quarter [7][30] Group 4: Polyester Market - Several polyester production facilities are undergoing maintenance, with a total capacity of 1.8% affected [8][31] - The average sales estimate for polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 20-30% as of 3:30 PM on Monday, indicating weak demand [8][31] Group 5: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, with the latest production increasing by 11,000 tons to 783,000 tons, indicating rising supply pressure [15][38] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with the latest soda ash factory inventory increasing by 16,000 tons to 156,000 tons [15][38] - The market sentiment is weak, with soda ash prices expected to remain low in the short term [15][38] Group 6: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a slight decline, with inventory decreasing by 33,000 tons to 2,628,000 tons, while production remained stable [40][41] - The demand for glass is weak due to seasonal factors, with the latest deep processing order quantity decreasing [40][41] Group 7: Caustic Soda Market - As of February 2, 2026, caustic soda futures increased by 29 yuan/ton to 2,004 yuan/ton, with stable prices in the market [42][43] - Demand is generally weak, but some caustic soda companies are reducing production, leading to stable prices [42][43] Group 8: PVC Market - PVC futures decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 5,014 yuan/ton, with supply pressure remaining high due to elevated operating rates [44][45] - Short-term expectations for PVC are optimistic due to a significant reduction in production growth in 2026 [44][45] Group 9: Polyolefins Market - Polyolefins are experiencing wide fluctuations, with LLDPE futures up and PP futures down, indicating mixed market conditions [46] - The overall supply trend remains high, but demand is entering a seasonal downturn [46]