Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation adjustment [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [4] - CSI 300: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bullish outlook [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - MPOB oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bullish bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The iron ore market is characterized by loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with the pattern of oversupply difficult to reverse. However, short - term prices have support due to potential macro - sentiment improvement [2] - The coking coal market is affected by macro - policy expectations and supply concerns from safety inspections, with the core contradiction being the low profit of steel mills [2] - The steel market has supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate and adjust, with the market awaiting policy boosts [2] - The glass market is in a weak state, with demand dragged down by the real - estate sector, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - The stock index market is in short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4] - The treasury bond market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - The precious metal market, especially gold and silver, is expected to oscillate at high levels, influenced by factors such as central bank buying, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4] - The log market is expected to be bullish, with improved demand, rising cost expectations, and potential optimization of delivery rules [5] - The pulp market is expected to consolidate at the bottom due to weak cost support and poor demand [5] - The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand [5] - The粕类 market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias due to seasonal supply pressure and weak demand [5][8] - The live - pig market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, but the price increase is limited due to sufficient supply and weak demand [8] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate widely, with supply affected by weather and demand recovering [9] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different trends, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Supply is loose with high port arrivals expected, and the oversupply pattern persists. Trade frictions may cause price drops, but macro - sentiment improvement provides short - term support. Four key factors need to be monitored for price re - pricing [2] - **Coking coal**: Macro - policy expectations are high, but supply concerns from safety inspections have limited impact on the market. The low profit of steel mills is the core issue [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Supply pressure is relatively large, and the market is waiting for demand recovery in October. High inventory and weak demand require rapid de - stocking for price stabilization [2] - **Glass**: The market is weak, with low demand due to the real - estate downturn. Inventory is at a high level, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is in short - term consolidation, and it is recommended to hold long positions as bullish sentiment rises [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate at high levels, driven by central bank buying, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: Demand is improving, cost is expected to rise, and delivery rules may be optimized, making the market bullish [5] - **Pulp**: Cost support is weak, and demand is poor, so the market is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, demand is general, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [5] Oil and Fats - The market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, and is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [5] Agricultural Products - **粕类**: Seasonal supply pressure is high, and demand is weak, so the market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5][8] - **Live pigs**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate with limited upward space [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is recovering, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [9] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These markets are mainly affected by oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost, with different trends [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced based on Ural needle pulp and high - quality coniferous pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 22, 2025, SP2601 was 5220 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.97%, SP2511 was 4854 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.04%, and SP2605 was 5270 with a daily increase of 0.84% and a weekly increase of 0.57% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 2500 with no daily or weekly change, Russian Needle was 5100 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 2.00%, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no daily or weekly change [6] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In October 2025, the outer - market quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% from the previous period; Nisshin Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92%; and Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%, and that of broad - leaf pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China in August was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The inventory showed a narrow - range destocking trend [6] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper has been relatively stable recently. For example, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard has not shown significant changes [6] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 22, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 246 with a quantile level of 0.911, and that of Silver Star was 646 with a quantile level of 0.878 [6] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.511, and that of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.556 [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The pulp market has no significant fundamental changes, with a slight rebound boosted by the sector and mainly fluctuating in a wide range at a low level. The demand side of the pulp market has a gentle increase in volume, and the start of the traditional peak season is delayed [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,154 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,220 yuan/ton, a total increase of 1.28%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,850 - 6,500 yuan/ton, with the price rising 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,600 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco of Chile announced the new October FOB prices for wood pulp: the softwood pulp Yinxing was at $680/ton, a decrease of $20/ton from the previous month; the unbleached pulp Jinxing was at $590/ton, unchanged from the previous month; the hardwood pulp Mingxing was at $540/ton, also unchanged from the previous month [8]. - In September, the European wood pulp inventory was 722,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.1%; the European wood pulp consumption was 813,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. In September, China's total pulp imports were 2.95 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 10.1%. As of October 16, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 1.45% month - on - month, and the overall shipping speed was moderate [8]. Operation Suggestions - No operation suggestions are provided in the report. Group 5: Industry News - Eldorado Brasil Celulose will conduct a full - shutdown maintenance at its Tres Lagoas factory in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, from October 20 to 31, 2025. The factory has an annual production capacity of approximately 1.8 million tons of bleached eucalyptus pulp, and 90% of its products are for export, with about half going to the Chinese market [9]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - delivery spread, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and spreads of coated paper and offset paper, prices and spreads of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][21][27][29]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Futures Exchange released energy and chemical warehouse receipt data on October 22, indicating stable inventory levels for various commodities [1] Group 1: Crude Oil and Fuel Oil - Medium sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 5,211,000 barrels, remaining unchanged from the previous period [1] - Low sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts stood at 4,960 tons, also unchanged [1] - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were recorded at 31,390 tons, with no change [1] - Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts amounted to 13,040 tons, maintaining the same level [1] Group 2: Pulp Futures - Pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased by 141 tons, totaling 220,269 tons [1] - Pulp futures factory warehouse receipts remained stable at 6,000 tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for Russian needles in 2026. The futures market may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp. The 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 21, 2025, SP2601 was 5170 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly increase of 0.19%; SP2511 was 4854 with a daily decrease of 0.08% and a weekly increase of 0.17%; SP2605 was 5226 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly decrease of 0.08% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 2500 (no daily or weekly change), Russian softwood pulp was 5100 (no daily change, 2.00% weekly increase), and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 (no daily or weekly change) [6] - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In October 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton (down 20 dollars/ton compared to the previous period), Nisshin Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton (up 20 dollars/ton), and Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton (unchanged) [6] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase [6] - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different periods, with no obvious trend [6] - **Shipping Volume to China**: The shipping volume of pulp to China in August 2025 was 162, a 4.50% increase [6] - **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the pulp inventory in China's main ports was 207.4 tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period, showing a narrow - range de - stocking trend [6] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: It showed a downward trend in different periods [6] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly, and the overall demand for paper products remained stable. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [6] 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 21, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 246 with a quantile level of 0.911; the Silver Star basis was 646 with a quantile level of 0.878 [6] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.511; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.555 [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong bias oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong bias oscillation [4] - Log: Strong bias treatment [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak bias oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation bias short [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation bias short [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation bias short [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation bias strong [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The iron ore market continues to face an oversupply situation, but short-term prices are supported by macro sentiment. The coal and coke market is affected by macro policies and supply concerns, with the core contradiction being the low profit level of steel mills. The steel market has supply and demand contradictions and is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust. The glass market is weak, and short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The financial market shows short-term rebounds and increased bullish sentiment, with suggestions to hold long positions in stock index futures. The precious metal market is expected to show strong bias oscillation due to various factors such as interest rate policies and geopolitical risks. The forestry product market has positive factors for logs, while pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom. The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide-range oscillation, and the meal market is expected to oscillate with a short bias. The agricultural product market for live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The soft commodity market for rubber is expected to show wide-range oscillation, and the polyester market has different trends for each product [2][3][4][5][8][9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is expected to remain high, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse. However, short-term prices are supported by macro sentiment. Four main lines should be closely monitored for potential price revaluation [2]. - Coking coal: Affected by macro policy expectations and supply concerns, the core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills. The second round of coke price increases is difficult to implement [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: Supply pressure is relatively large, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and prices need to cooperate with rapid inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the possibility of cold repair is increasing. The demand is dragged down by the real estate sector, and short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market shows short-term rebounds and increased bullish sentiment, with suggestions to hold long positions [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is down, and the market shows a small rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to show strong bias oscillation due to factors such as interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and physical demand [4]. Forestry Products - Logs: Spot prices are stable, costs are expected to rise, demand is marginally improved, and the delivery specifications are expected to be optimized. Overall, logs are treated with a strong bias [5]. - Pulp: Spot prices are stable, costs support is weakening, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. Oil and Fat Market - Oil and fat: The market is affected by factors such as high inventory, production changes, and policy expectations. It is expected to continue wide-range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the sowing of Brazilian soybeans and the production and sales of palm oil [5]. - Meal: The market faces seasonal supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American soybean growth. It is expected to oscillate with a short bias, and attention should be paid to the sowing of Brazilian soybeans and the import and arrival of soybeans [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. The price of large pigs is relatively firm, while the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. Short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather conditions, and demand is improving. Inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to show wide-range oscillation [9]. - Polyester products: Each product has different trends. PX, MEG, PR, and PF are on the sidelines, PTA oscillates, and the market for polyester bottle chips rebounds weakly [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current paper product demand remains stable, paper product prices show no obvious rebound, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [12] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 207.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, showing a narrow de - stocking trend [12] - The pulp fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 Russian needles. The futures price may be priced according to Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 20, 2025, SP2601 was 5156, up 0.66% day - on - day and down 0.04% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4858, up 0.41% day - on - day and up 1.80% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5212, up 0.54% day - on - day and down 0.31% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On October 20, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of Russian Needles was 5100, up 2.00% day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: In October 2025, the quote of Chilean Silver Star was 700 US dollars/ton, down 2.78% month - on - month; the quote of Japanese pulp was 530 US dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% month - on - month [6] - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 207.4 million tons; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.7 million tons [6] - **Demand**: In October 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.30 million tons, coated paper was 7.90 million tons, tissue paper was 28.08 million tons, and white cardboard was 34.50 million tons [6] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 20, 2025, the Russian Needles basis was 242, with a quantile level of 0.91; the Silver Star basis was 642, with a quantile level of 0.877 [6] - **Import Profit**: On October 20, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, with a quantile level of 0.285; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.555 [6] Supply - side Information - Chile's Arauco Company's September softwood pulp Silver Star was quoted at 700 US dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star was quoted at 540 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus was quoted at 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged. Softwood pulp foreign quotes decreased, while hardwood pulp quotes increased [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Suzano, has successfully issued its second tranche of Panda bonds in the Chinese interbank bond market, raising 1.4 billion RMB, as part of its financing plan approved by the board in August 2024 [1] Group 1: Panda Bond Issuance - The second tranche of Panda bonds was issued on October 17, with a total size of 1.4 billion RMB [1] - Panda bonds are defined as bonds issued by foreign institutions in China, denominated in RMB [1] - This issuance follows the successful issuance of the first tranche of Panda bonds amounting to 1.2 billion RMB in November last year, making Suzano the first non-financial enterprise in the Americas to issue such bonds [1] Group 2: Financing Plan and Utilization - The financing plan authorized by Suzano allows for a maximum fundraising of 20 billion RMB in the Chinese market [1] - The funds raised from the second tranche will be used for general corporate purposes, aimed at broadening the company's financing channels and optimizing its capital structure [1]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]