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纸浆数据日报-20250918
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 11:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts, and pulp futures are oscillating [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On September 17, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2505 were 5348, 5042, and 5368 respectively, with daily changes of -0.04%, -0.51%, and 0.19%, and weekly changes of 1.44%, 0.92%, and 1.78% [5] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were 5650, 5250, and 4220 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.96%, and weekly changes of 0.00%, 1.55%, and 0.96% [5] - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively, with monthly changes of -2.78%, 3.92%, and 0.00% [5] - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with monthly changes of -2.75%, 3.87%, and 0.00% [5] Fundamental Data Supply - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.72%, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.85% [5] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, fluctuated within a certain range [5] Inventory - As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [5] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, also fluctuated [5] Demand - The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, remained relatively stable [5] Valuation Data - On September 17, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 208 with a quantile level of 0.901, and the Silver Star basis was 608 with a quantile level of 0.871 [5] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was -71 with a quantile level of 0.496, and that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was -124 with a quantile level of 0.522 [5] Market Situation - On the supply side, Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in broadleaf pulp quotes [5] - On the demand side, the current demand for paper products is basically stable, and some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be seen [5] - On the inventory side, the inventory change is not significant [5]
纸浆数据日报-20250917
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 06:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no obvious reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. However, benefiting from the warming of commodity sentiment, pulp futures are expected to run strongly in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5324 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.64%; SP2511 was 5056 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2509 was 4970 with a daily increase of 0.69% and a weekly decrease of 0.04% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.88%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.58%; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily and weekly change [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a decrease of 2.70% compared to the previous period; Japanese Quote increased by 3.92% to 530 dollars; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 590 dollars [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, an increase of 3.87% compared to the previous period; Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 4830 [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a decrease of 4.72% compared to June; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 135.1 tons, a decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23% [5]. - **Production**: The domestic production of eucalyptus pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained relatively stable from July 31 to September 11, 2025 [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 24.5 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard remained relatively stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be observed [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 16, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 144 with a quantile level of 0.871; the basis of Silver Star was 594 with a quantile level of 0.865 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On September 16, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; the import profit of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.479 [5].
纸浆数据日报-20250916
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 03:24
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and there is no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. In the short term, it will still operate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, SP2601 was 5324 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.64%; SP2511 was 5056 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2509 was 4970 with a daily increase of 0.69% and a weekly decrease of 0.04% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.88%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.58%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily or weekly change [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In September 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese Utsumi was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: In September 2025, the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper was relatively stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard paper mills issued price increase letters, but the implementation situation remains to be observed [5] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 15, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 144 with a quantile level of 0.871; the Silver Star basis was 594 with a quantile level of 0.865 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 15, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.479 [5] Market Situation and Strategy - **Supply - side**: Brazilian Suzano announced a price increase of 20 dollars/ton in the Asian market in August 2025. Chilean Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable [5] - **Inventory - side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory change was not significant, and the commodity market was running strongly in the short term due to the anti - involution sentiment [5] - **Strategy**: The pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, and it will still operate weakly in the short term [5]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250916
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 00:47
Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 01 contract rose 0.91% overall, with the pre - settlement price at 5276 yuan/ton and the closing price at 5324 yuan/ton. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market is 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The offer price of Shandong Yinxing is 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's August wood pulp export quotes were stable compared to June. The shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in July increased month - on - month by 3.2% and year - on - year by 4.1%. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month by 7.9% and year - on - year by 5.6%. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.71% compared to the previous week. The downstream cultural paper market is running weakly, and the pulp market will continue to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of pulp futures rose 0.91%. The 05 contract rose 0.76%, and the 09 contract rose 0.89%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market is 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable. Shandong Yinxing is quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Arauco's August quotes were stable compared to June. In July, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major producing countries increased. China's pulp imports in August decreased. The inventory as of September 11 increased. The downstream cultural paper market has resumed production, but new orders are limited, and the pulp market will continue low - level fluctuations [8]. 2. Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation approved the release of 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field, which will improve the standard system and promote the healthy development of the industry [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]
国贸期货纸浆数据日报-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 12, 2025, SP2601 was 5300 with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly decrease of 0.34%; SP2511 was 5016 with a daily increase of 0.40% and a weekly decrease of 0.71%; SP2509 was 4960 with a daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly decrease of 0.68% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.22%; Russian Needle was 5170 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.58%; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.48% [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote for Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese NBSK was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85% [5] - **Supply - Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly from July 31 to September 11, 2025 [5] - **Supply - Shipment Volume**: The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2% [5] - **Inventory - Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 24.5 tons, showing a slight change compared to previous periods [5] - **Demand - Finished Paper Production**: From July 31 to September 11, 2025, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 12, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 154 with a quantile level of 0.877; the Silver Star basis was 634 with a quantile level of 0.879 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.478 [5] Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand Side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be seen [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports showed a narrow - range destocking trend [5] Strategy - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and the pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5]
纸浆早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 03:01
Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 12, 2025, was 4990.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5016.00 and a decline of -0.51834% [3] - The corresponding US dollar price was 611.31, and the basis for Shandong Yinxing was 675, while that for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was 690 [3] Group 2: Pulp Price and Profit Information - For pulp from different origins and brands, such as Golden Lion from Canada (CFR price of 780), Lion from Canada (CFR price of 730), and Yinxing from Chile (CFR letter of credit 90 - day price of 720), the import profits were -145.57, -533.29, and -197.83 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The same was true for the Shandong region [4] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) also remained unchanged during this period [4] Group 4: Paper Profit Margin Information - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper on September 12, 2025, were 2.9521%, 18.9325%, -12.6626%, and 8.0245% respectively. The living paper profit margin increased by 0.2674 compared to previous days [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spread Information - On September 12, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper were 1505.00, 265, 1840, and 4089 respectively [4]
中信期货晨报:商品期货多数上涨,中小盘股指涨幅较好-20250912
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 05:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].
建信期货纸浆日报-20250912
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 01:34
Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Main Researchers: Liu Youran (Pulp), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [3][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The pulp futures 01 contract rose 1.53% overall. The pulp market has continuous supply pressure, weak demand during the peak season, and the supply - demand contradiction remains unimproved, with prices mainly fluctuating at a low level [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Pulp Futures Market**: The 01 contract of pulp futures had a previous settlement price of 5226 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5306 yuan/ton, rising 1.53%. The 09 contract and 05 contract also had corresponding price changes [7] - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply - demand Situation**: Arauco's new August pulp offer was stable compared to June. The chemical pulp shipment volume of 20 major pulp - producing countries in July increased by 7.3% year - on - year. EU port pulp inventory in July decreased by 1.9% month - on - month and increased by 19.2% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in August decreased by 7.8% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.07% month - on - month. The cumulative profit of the papermaking and paper products industry in July decreased by 21.9% year - on - year, with a slightly expanding decline. The demand for offset paper was in a wait - and - see state, and the pulp and paper market had continuous supply pressure and weak demand [8] 3.2. Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation approved and released 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field, which is of great significance for standardizing production, improving product quality, and promoting the healthy development of the industry [9] 3.3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]
纸浆数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report Core View - The pulp fundamentals still show no signs of recovery, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts, indicating a short - term weak performance [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - On September 10, 2025, the futures price of coniferous pulp Silver Star (SP2601) was 5272, with a daily increase of 0.11% and a weekly decrease of 0.98%; the spot price was 5650, with a daily decrease of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 1.22%. The futures price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5170, unchanged daily and down 0.58% weekly [1]. - The futures price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish (SP2509) was 4938, with a daily increase of 0.16% and a weekly decrease of 1.20%; the price was 4180, unchanged daily and down 0.48% weekly [1]. - The external quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 720, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%; the import cost was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%. The external quotation of Brazilian Goldfish was 530, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%; the price was 4344, a month - on - month increase of 3.87% [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.72%; the supply of broad - leaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China increased by 23% [1]. - As of September 4, 2025, the domestic production volume of broad - leaf pulp was 21.1 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 21.1 tons. The pulp port inventory was 206.6 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.7 tons [1]. - The production volume of offset paper was 19.50 tons, that of coated paper was 7.80 tons, that of tissue paper was 28.15 tons, and that of white cardboard was 33.80 tons [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - On September 10, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 174, with a quantile level of 0.889; the import profit was - 234, with a quantile level of 0.271. The basis of Silver Star was 654, with a quantile level of 0.884 [1]. - The basis of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 164, with a quantile level of 0.478 [1]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotation, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, the supply of broad - leaf pulp Star decreased by 50%, and the price of natural pulp Venus at $590/ton [1]. - Demand: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation situation remains to be observed [1]. - Inventory: As of September 4, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 206.6 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%, showing a de - stocking trend [1].
建信期货纸浆日报-20250911
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:33
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily paper pulp report dated September 11, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers such as Liu Youran (pulp), Li Jie (crude oil and asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (industrial silicon and polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [3][4] Group 3: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,284 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,000 - 6,650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,700 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco Company announced the new August wood pulp export prices: softwood pulp Yinxing at $720/ton, natural pulp Jinxing at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Mingxing at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to the June prices. In July, the chemical commodity pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 7.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 4.1% and hardwood pulp up 11.1%. In July 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased by 1.9% month - on - month and increased by 19.2% year - on - year. In August, China's total pulp imports were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 7.8% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year. As of September 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.52% month - on - month. In July, the cumulative year - on - year profit of the papermaking and paper products industry decreased by 21.9%, with the decline slightly expanding [8] - On the demand side, the new round of publication bidding for offset paper has not started, and the listing price on the first day was lower than expected, with large short - term fluctuations. The overall shipping and supply pressure in the pulp and paper market remains high, the peak demand season is not prosperous, the supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the market is mainly in a low - level volatile operation [8] Group 4: Industry News - On September 10, after the resumption of production at Meilun Chemical Pulp Mill and Factories 5, 6, and 9, the Shouguang base made new progress. On September 8, the tissue paper production line of Factory 7 was successfully started. The factory is equipped with two international - class production lines, with core equipment imported from Andritz in Austria and Valmet in Finland. The paper machine has a width of 5,600 mm and an operating speed of 2,000 m/min, with advanced processes such as integrated double - layer headboxes and shoe presses, and a full - set of automated control systems. It can efficiently produce boxed facial tissues, roll papers, etc., and all quality indicators reach international advanced levels. As of now, the operating production lines at the Shouguang base are running smoothly, and the remaining production lines are planned to start operation before September 10, when the Shouguang base will fully resume full - load production capacity [9] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including those related to import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][28][32]