1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of surplus in 2026, with prices likely to continue oscillating during the holiday period [1]. - The fuel oil market shows a slight strengthening in the low - sulfur segment and some support in the high - sulfur segment. Short - term prices of FU and LU are likely to fluctuate with oil prices, and the crack spread may remain stable and rise [1][3]. - The asphalt price is supported by cost but has weak terminal demand. The downward price space is limited, and it may fluctuate with oil prices and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - In the polyester market, the upstream PX and TA have positive expectations for the 2026 supply - demand pattern, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited. The ethylene glycol price may face pressure due to high domestic production and potential over - supply [3][5]. - The rubber price is expected to oscillate due to factors such as the end of the domestic production season, increased overseas supply, and weak downstream demand [5]. - The methanol price is likely to maintain bottom - level oscillations due to factors such as the decline in Iranian supply and the weakening of MTO demand [7]. - The polyolefin market has weak fundamental drivers and large inventory transfer pressure, and is expected to show an oscillating performance [7]. - The PVC price is expected to approach bottom - level oscillations due to high - level supply oscillations and weak domestic demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures were closed for the Christmas holiday. SC2602 closed at 444.7 yuan/barrel, up 1.7 yuan/barrel or 0.38%. Russia's oil and condensate production in 2025 was about the same as in 2024, around 516 million tons or 10.32 million barrels per day. The global oil market is balanced, and the OPEC+ mechanism is effective. ING believes there will be an oil surplus in 2026, and the oil price is expected to oscillate during the holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose 0.61% to 2489 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.33% to 3016 yuan/ton. As of December 24, the Fujeirah fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.247 million barrels (17.38%) week - on - week. The low - sulfur market strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market had some support. The arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market may decline in December, and the supply in Asia may be sufficient from January to February. The high - sulfur market has good downstream demand support. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and the crack spread may rise [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 rose 0.17% to 2995 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% month - on - month and 12.1% year - on - year. The weekly shipment increased by 15.4%, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.6% month - on - month but increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The cost is supported due to the tense US - Venezuela relationship, but the terminal demand is weak. The price downward space is limited, and it may fluctuate with oil prices [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5152 yuan/ton, up 1.14%; EG2605 closed at 3818 yuan/ton, unchanged. The PX futures contract 603 closed at 7358 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The polyester production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China reduced its load, and a 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted. The ethylene glycol start - up load in mainland China is 72.15% (up 0.18% week - on - week), and the polyester load is around 89.7%. The demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 80 yuan/ton to 15730 yuan/ton, and the NR contract rose 80 yuan/ton to 12695 yuan/ton, while the butadiene rubber BR contract fell 110 yuan/ton to 11285 yuan/ton. Thailand's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports increased by 4.6% year - on - year in the first 11 months, and exports to China increased by 24%. The rubber price followed the rise of the macro - commodity sentiment. The domestic production season ended, overseas supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the Taicang spot price was 2145 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are running stably, and the production is oscillating at a high level. Iranian supply remains low. The Ningbo Fude device is under maintenance, and the MTO device start - up rate in East China has decreased. The inventory may fluctuate, and the price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the East China拉丝 price was 6050 - 6250 yuan/ton. The production profit of various types of polyolefins is negative. The supply will remain at a high level, and the downstream orders and start - up rate are weakening. The market is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the East China PVC market held firm, the North China market declined slightly, and the South China market had individual price increases. Some plants plan to reduce their loads this week, and the production is expected to decline slightly. The domestic real - estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. The price is expected to approach bottom - level oscillations [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia's oil and condensate production in 2025 was about the same as in 2024, around 516 million tons or 10.32 million barrels per day. Russia will continue to work within the OPEC+ framework, and the global oil market is balanced [11]. - US Coast Guard is unable to seize an oil tanker related to Venezuela due to a shortage of professional staff and will wait for more personnel to arrive [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, and others [13][14][15][16][18][19][21][22][23][24][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, and others [32][35][36][38][40][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, and other contracts [44][45][46][47][50][51][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63][64][65]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [68][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene, PE/PP/PVC Analyst), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences introduced [73][74][75][76].

Group 1 - The Shandong Chemical and Chemical Engineering Society has established a cross-disciplinary expert team to support the upgrading of the regional polyolefin industry through a precise mechanism of "enterprises posing questions, the society providing a platform, and experts offering solutions" [1] - The society has built 5 collaborative innovation platforms, promoted over 70 technological achievements, and trained nearly 500 technical talents [1] - Experts from universities such as Qingdao University of Science and Technology and Shandong University of Technology have proposed optimization solutions to enhance product impact strength and heat resistance, as well as customized energy consumption reduction paths based on intelligent algorithms [1] Group 2 - The society has organized 5 high-quality seminars to discuss cutting-edge trends in the polyolefin industry, and has conducted specialized training activities, resulting in the training of over 200 technical personnel [2] - The society has conducted several specialized research reports, including "Research Report on Technological Progress in High-end Polyolefin Industry" and "Research on the Application of Biodegradable Agricultural Films in Shandong Province and Subsidy Policies," providing strong support for regional industrial development planning [2]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the price of natural rubber rises due to the warming of commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended to try short - selling around 15,700 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 24th, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 15,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.68%. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.00%. Other varieties also showed different price changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 100.00%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 83.33% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 48.30 thousand tons to 466.20 thousand tons, a decline of 9.39%. China's production increased by 23.70 thousand tons to 137.20 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.66 percentage points to 72.05%, while that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 61.95% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased by 16,339 tons to 515,227 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 tons to 58,968 tons, a decline of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the price of crude oil has been strengthening under the influence of geopolitics, but the geopolitical drive is still limited. The final price will return to be dominated by the oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation between the US and Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 24th, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14 US dollars per barrel to 62.24 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.22%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.03 US dollars per barrel to 58.35 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.05% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.39 cents per gallon to 174.71 cents per gallon, a growth rate of 0.22%, while NYM ULSD decreased by 3.30 cents per gallon to 215.76 cents per gallon, a decline of 1.51% [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 0.19 US dollars per barrel to 15.03 US dollars per barrel, a growth rate of 1.31%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 1.36 US dollars per barrel to 32.27 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 4.03% [3]. Group 3: Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton. This week, the supply and demand of styrene both increased. Although the price is boosted in the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited. EB02 is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 58.35 US dollars per barrel [5]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.8%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.2% [5]. - **Downstream Cash Flow and Inventory**: The cash flow of EPS decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.30 tons to 27.30 tons, a growth rate of 5.0% [5]. Group 4: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the main contract PG2601 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 4235 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The PG01 - 02 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 14.39% [8]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The FEI forward M1 contract remained unchanged at 531 US dollars per ton, and the CP swap M1 contract decreased by 1.4 US dollars per ton to 508 US dollars per ton, a decline of 0.27% [8]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio remained unchanged at 23.7%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons, a decline of 7.89% [8]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of downstream PDH increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the operating rate of downstream MTBE decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 68.9% [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: After the sharp rise of PX, be cautious about the current price. Do not rule out the possibility of the upstream price falling back due to substantial production cuts in the polyester sector. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. PX5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **PTA**: After the sharp rise following PX, be cautious about the current price. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. TA5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. EG5 - 9 can be in a short - position at high prices [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price has limited driving force and mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: PR unilateral trading is the same as PTA. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fee can be shorted at high prices [10]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged at 540 US dollars per ton [10]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 901 US dollars per ton. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.0% [10]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of PTA in East China increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.7%. The TA05 - TA09 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 20.5% [10]. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of MEG in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3653 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.2%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.7% [10]. Group 6: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of equipment and the progress of downstream demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the 01 contract of urea decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1712 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The 01 contract - 05 contract spread increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 4.41% [11]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and the price of动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.96% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of domestic urea remained unchanged at 19.19 thousand tons. The weekly production decreased by 5.20 thousand tons to 133.34 thousand tons, a decline of 3.75% [11]. Group 7: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price and basis of polyolefins changed little today. The market sentiment cooled down, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous period. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to face both cost reduction and profit compression, and the price center will further decline [12]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the L2601 closing price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 6343 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11%. The L15 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 47 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.97% [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia remained unchanged at 6120 yuan/ton, and the basis of North China LLDPE remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 82.6%. The enterprise inventory of PE decreased by 2.92 tons to 45.9 tons, a decline of 5.99% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry still has certain pressure. It is expected that the spot price of liquid caustic soda will be adjusted weakly and steadily in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the long - term [13]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC have weak support. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate in the range, and the price will weaken after a rebound [13]. Summary by Directory - **Spot and Futures Price**: On December 25th, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 15.6 yuan/ton to 2234.4 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The V2605 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4757 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.5% [13]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price of PVC in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 600 US dollars per ton, and the export profit decreased by 66.5 yuan/ton to - 20.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 145.1% [13]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.7 tons to 51.1 tons, a decline of 1.3% [13]. Group 9: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. The port accumulates inventory significantly, while the inland market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price fluctuates narrowly [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the MA2601 closing price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The MA15 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.16% [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol increased by 1.28 tons to 40.397 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The port inventory increased by 19.37 tons to 141.3 tons, a growth rate of 15.89% [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.36 percentage points to 77.99%, while the operating rate of overseas upstream enterprises decreased by 3.47 percentage points to 60.5% [16]. Group 10: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the price will continue to fluctuate and bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19]. - **Glass**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [19]. Summary by Directory - **Related Price and Spread**: On December 26th, the North China quotation of glass decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.98%. The North China quotation of soda ash remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 82.74%. The factory inventory of soda ash increased by 0.5 tons to 149.93 tons, a growth rate of 0.33% [19]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 14.26 percentage points to - 29.25%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area increased by 21.34 percentage points to - 0.28% [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and economic indicators, highlighting the mixed signals in various sectors, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil, while emphasizing the potential for policy support and market recovery in the near future [1][2][3][4]. Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged to a historical high, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, which stands at 2.7% year-on-year, below the anticipated 3.1% [2][17]. - The overall downtrend in CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, supporting the long-term upward trend in precious metals due to factors like weakened dollar credit and central bank gold purchases [2][17]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock markets were closed, but previous trading saw an increase in stock indices, particularly in the defense and military sectors, with a total market turnover of 1.94 trillion yuan [3][10]. - The financing balance increased by 10.127 billion yuan, indicating a positive outlook for A-shares, supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment [3][10]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices saw a slight increase of 0.38%, with Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reaching a two-and-a-half-year high of 7.1 million barrels in October, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [4][13]. - Despite geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia, the overall trend for crude oil remains downward [4][13]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a mixed picture, with an addition of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][17]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [7][12]. Industry News - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice to Sunflower regarding its asset acquisition plan, indicating ongoing corporate activities and market dynamics [8]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index showed fluctuations, with expectations for price stability as shipping companies prepare for increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The futures prices of chemical products rose across the board yesterday. Driven by market sentiment, the olefin sector at the bottom rebounded. The strengthening support from the cost side also contributed to the rise. However, the supply - demand contradiction of polyolefins has not been alleviated, which may continue to suppress the market prices [3] - For PE, the supply remains high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in inventory accumulation and large de - stocking pressure. Although the cost support is strengthening, the supply - demand contradiction continues to suppress the price [3] - For PP, the short - term supply - demand fundamental variables are limited. The supply is still under pressure, and the demand is weak. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to the cost - side disturbances and supply - side maintenance changes [4] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6408元/吨（+112），PP主力合约收盘价为6278元/吨（+120），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6140元/吨（+20），LL华北基差为 - 208元/吨（-112），LL华东基差为 - 38元/吨（-112），PP华东基差为 - 138元/吨（-100） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1] - PE油制生产利润为 - 109.2元/吨（-53.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 599.2元/吨（-53.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 809.1元/吨（-95.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the report 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 157.4元/吨（-29.9），PP进口利润为 - 301.5元/吨（-29.9），PP出口利润为 - 2.6美元/吨（+3.8） [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the report Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Although the market rebounds driven by short - term sentiment, the game between the cost side and the supply - demand contradiction leads to insufficient upward drive, and the rebound height is expected to be limited [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Inter - variety: Shorten the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: December 25, 2025 - Industry: Polyolefin [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the polyolefin market is increasing as the maintenance loss of devices in December has declined significantly and the previously shut - down devices are restarting. The demand is weak due to the seasonal off - season. The rebound of polyolefin futures should be treated with a bearish view [4]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The plastic 2601 contract opened at 6256 yuan/ton, closed at 6350 yuan/ton, up 1.73% with a position decrease of 11664 lots to 50532 lots. The plastic 2605 contract opened at 6310 yuan/ton, closed at 6408 yuan/ton, up 1.99% with a position decrease of 41207 lots to 540352 lots. The plastic 2609 contract opened at 6342 yuan/ton, closed at 6445 yuan/ton, up 1.93% with a position increase of 292 lots to 23865 lots. The PP2601 contract opened at 6062 yuan/ton, closed at 6187 yuan/ton, up 1.89% with a position decrease of 15404 lots to 61519 lots. The PP2605 contract opened at 6166 yuan/ton, closed at 6278 yuan/ton, up 1.93% with a position decrease of 18588 lots to 539752 lots. The PP2609 contract opened at 6203 yuan/ton, closed at 6300 yuan/ton, up 1.55% with a position increase of 5439 lots to 39130 lots [3]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The downstream load of PE has mostly declined, and although the PP start - up rate is basically stable, factories are mainly digesting inventory and have low willingness to make new purchases. The futures market has a slight increase, but the spot price remains weak, and downstream buyers are mostly on the sidelines [4]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On December 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 590,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market**: The PE market prices have partially declined. The LLDPE prices in North China are in the range of 6140 - 6400 yuan/ton, in East China 6230 - 6700 yuan/ton, and in South China 6250 - 6650 yuan/ton [5]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is temporarily in the range of 5700 - 5730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply is abundant, and the overall trading improvement is not obvious [5]. - **PP Market**: The PP market has a slight increase. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire are in the range of 5920 - 6060 yuan/ton, in East China 6020 - 6200 yuan/ton, and in South China 6100 - 6330 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][10][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Short - term fundamentals change little. The rubber price rises due to the increasing preference for commodities, but there is a risk of a sharp fall after a rise [1]. Methanol - The port may face inventory accumulation pressure in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The supply - demand pattern in the inland area is expected to be stable, and the price will fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. Polyolefins - For PP, supply increases while demand decreases, with low marginal device valuation and a slight reduction in inventory. For PE, both supply and demand are weak, with a decrease in the marginal supply of standard products, low valuation, and the futures price rising with reduced positions [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with the BZ2603 contract likely to fluctuate between 5300 - 5600. Styrene's rebound space is limited, and the EB02 contract may fluctuate between 6300 - 6700 [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash's supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the price is in a downward - fluctuating pattern. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Glass's market still faces pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December [10]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's price is expected to be weak in the short term, and its rebound range is limited. PVC is expected to continue to move in a range, and its rebound height is limited [11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation after the holiday [12]. Urea - Urea prices may fluctuate between 1700 - 1750. It is necessary to pay attention to the enterprise's replenishment demand and the progress of export policies [14]. LPG - No clear overall view is provided in the LPG - related content. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may continue to be strong in the short term, but caution is needed. PTA's upward movement is limited. MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Short - fiber's absolute price has limited drivers. Bottle - chip's processing fees are expected to be compressed [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose by 250 yuan/ton to 15100 yuan/ton, with a 1.68% increase. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a 25.00% decline [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton, a 107.69% increase. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 65 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a 185.71% decline [1]. Production and Inventory - Thailand's October production decreased by 48.3 thousand tons to 466.2 thousand tons, a 9.39% decline. The bonded - area inventory increased by 16339 tons to 515227 tons, a 3.28% increase [1]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - The MA2601 closing price rose by 4 yuan/ton to 2134 yuan/ton, a 0.19% increase. The MA15 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 38 yuan/ton, a 46.15% increase [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.28 million tons to 40.397 million tons, a 3.28% increase. Methanol port inventory increased by 19.37 million tons to 141.3 million tons, a 15.89% increase [4]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.99 percentage points to 77.63%, a 1.29% increase. The downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 1.51 percentage points to 86%, a 1.79% increase [4]. Polyolefins Prices and Spreads - The L2601 closing price rose by 104 yuan/ton to 6320 yuan/ton, a 1.67% increase. The L15 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, a 16.00% decline [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.92 million tons to 45.9 million tons, a 5.99% decline. PP trade - dealer inventory decreased by 2.01 million tons to 18.7 million tons, a 9.70% decline [8]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 83.9%, a 0.30% decline. The PP device operating rate increased by 1.08 percentage points to 79.4%, a 1.37% increase [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 0.14 dollars per barrel to 62.24 dollars per barrel, a 0.2% decline. The pure benzene - to - naphtha spread increased by 4 dollars per ton to 128 dollars per ton, a 3.2% increase [9]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene's East - China spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 6650 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase. The EB02 - EB03 spread decreased by 7 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, a 12.3% increase [9]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.3 million tons, a 5.0% increase. The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 74.9%, a 0.2% decline [9]. Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - The glass 2601 price rose by 3 yuan/ton to 941 yuan/ton, a 0.32% increase. The soda ash 2605 price rose by 9 yuan/ton to 1184 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase [10]. Production and Inventory - Soda ash's weekly production decreased by 1.4 million tons to 72.14 million tons, a 1.90% decline. Glass factory inventory increased by 33.1 million tons to 5855.8 million tons, a 0.57% increase [10]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - The East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 4480 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase. The SH2601 price rose by 12 yuan/ton to 2150 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [11]. Supply and Demand - The caustic - soda industry operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%, a 1.5% decline. The PVC total operating rate decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 16.1%, a 2.9% decline [11]. Inventory - The liquid - caustic East - China factory inventory decreased by 1.4 million tons to 22.7 million tons, a 5.7% decline. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.6 million tons to 32.9 million tons, a 4.6% decline [11]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil rose by 0.31 dollars per barrel to 62.38 dollars per barrel, a 0.50% increase. The Brent M1 - M3 spread increased by 0.12 dollars per barrel to - 3.16 dollars per barrel, a 3.66% decline [12]. Refined Oil - NYM RBOB rose by 10.75 cents per gallon to 627.25 cents per gallon, a 1.74% increase. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 0.34 cents per gallon to - 3.15 cents per gallon, a 12.10% increase [12]. Urea Prices and Spreads - The methanol - main - contract price rose by 16 yuan/ton to 2172 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase. The 01 - contract - to - 05 - contract spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a 9.68% decline [14]. Supply and Demand - The domestic urea daily production decreased to 19.5 million tons, a 0.00% change. The urea production factory operating rate remained at 80.62%, a 0.00% change [14]. Inventory - The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 11.08 million tons to 106.89 million tons, a 9.39% decline. The domestic urea port inventory remained at 13.8 million tons, a 0.00% change [14]. LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract price rose by 36 yuan/ton to 4221 yuan/ton, a 0.86% increase. The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 139 yuan/ton, a 9.74% decline [16]. Inventory and Operating Rates - The LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 million tons to 261 million tons, a 7.89% decline. The downstream PDH operating rate increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, a 2.92% increase [16]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 0.14 dollars per barrel to 62.24 dollars per barrel, a 0.2% decline. The POY150/48 price remained at 6395 yuan/ton, a 0.0% change [18]. PX - Related - CFR China PX rose by 5 dollars per ton to 901 dollars per ton, a 0.6% increase. The PX - to - naphtha spread increased by 6 dollars per ton to 447 dollars per ton, a 1.4% increase [18]. PTA and MEG - The PTA East - China spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 5015 yuan/ton, a 1.2% increase. The MEG port inventory increased by 3.0 million tons to 71.6 million tons, a 4.4% increase [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. The port inventory will continue to decline, but there are still pressures in the future due to high imports and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies [3]. - For urea, the market continues to oscillate higher. The demand has improved in the short term, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, currently having a neutral - to - bullish view, short - term operations with quick entries and exits are recommended. It is suggested to hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong domestic supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The valuation of PE has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [22]. - For PX, the load remains high, and downstream PTA has many overhauls. It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is advisable to pay attention to buying on dips [25]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level overhauls in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. The valuation is neutral to low. Attention should be paid to the risk of a balance - sheet reversal caused by increased unexpected overhauls [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market performance: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.68%, to 444.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 2.00 yuan/ton, or 0.08%, to 2,480.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 14.00 yuan/ton, or 0.47%, to 3,014.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory data: At the Fujairah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.70 million barrels to 6.27 million barrels, a 10.08% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 2.29 million barrels, a 14.25% decline; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 10.38 million barrels, an 8.95% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.10 million barrels to 18.94 million barrels, a 10.00% decline [1]. Methanol - Market performance: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Hebei decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton respectively, while Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 2,172 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 24 yuan [2]. - Strategy: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port inventory will decline, but there are future pressures. The fundamentals have pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - Market performance: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while Hubei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 14 yuan/ton to 1,735 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: The market oscillates higher. The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand has improved, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Rubber - Market performance: Bulls believe in factors such as limited production growth due to weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, the seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, the off - season demand, and the possible under - performance of supply - side benefits. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.152 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 748,000 tons, a 2.5% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 404,000 tons, a 2.8% increase. The total rubber inventory in Qingdao was 494,200 (+94,000) tons [9][10]. - Strategy: A neutral - to - bullish view, short - term operations with quick entries and exits are recommended, and it is suggested to hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market performance: The PVC05 contract rose 43 yuan to 4,781 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,480 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 301 (+17) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 135 (-7) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77.4%, a 2.1% decline from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decline. The factory inventory was 329,000 tons (-16,000), and the social inventory was 1.057 million tons (-3,000) [12]. - Strategy: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment drives a rebound, and in the medium term, shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase; the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 0.46 million tons to 13.93 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products on the demand side was 40.60%, a 1.67% decline [16]. - Strategy: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - Market performance: The main futures contract closed at 6,408 yuan/ton, a 112 - yuan increase. The spot price remained unchanged at 6,250 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 112 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.34%, a 0.76% increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 17,200 tons to 487,800 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 35,600 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decline [19]. - Strategy: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The valuation of PE has limited downward space. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - Market performance: The main futures contract closed at 6,278 yuan/ton, a 120 - yuan increase. The spot price remained unchanged at 6,250 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 120 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.05%, a 0.31% increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 537,800 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 90,000 tons to 198,300 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 67,500 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decline [21]. - Strategy: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [22]. PX - Market performance: The PX03 contract fell 8 yuan to 7,294 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 5 dollars to 901 dollars. The basis was 24 yuan (+43), and the 3 - 5 spread was 16 yuan (-4). The Chinese PX load was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period; the Asian load was 78.9%, a 0.4% decline. Tianjin Petrochemical in China shut down, and some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 73.2%, a 0.5% decline. In mid - and early December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 283,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons [24]. - Strategy: The load remains high, and downstream PTA has many overhauls. It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. It is advisable to pay attention to buying on dips [25]. PTA - Market performance: The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan to 5,094 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 60 yuan to 5,015 yuan. The basis was - 19 yuan (-2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 78 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 73.2%, a 0.5% decline. The downstream load was 91.2%, unchanged from the previous period. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom load decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 2.15 million tons, a 19,000 - ton decrease. The spot processing fee rose 37 yuan to 214 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee rose 17 yuan to 309 yuan [26]. - Strategy: The supply will maintain high - level overhauls in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - Market performance: The EG05 contract rose 195 yuan to 3,818 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 3,573 yuan. The basis was - 13 yuan (-8), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 62 yuan (+19). The ethylene glycol load was 72%, a 2% increase. The downstream load was 91.2%, unchanged from the previous period. The import arrival forecast was 118,000 tons, and the East China departure was 12,000 tons on December 23. The port inventory was 716,000 tons, a 30,000 - ton increase. The naphtha - based production profit was - 995 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1,064 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 123 yuan [28]. - Strategy: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. The valuation is neutral to low. Attention should be paid to the risk of a balance - sheet reversal caused by increased unexpected overhauls [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic environment, highlighting the Chinese central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the recent adjustments in the Beijing housing market to support home purchases by non-local families and families with multiple children [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the agriculture sector lagged behind. The market turnover reached 1.90 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 14.859 billion yuan to 25,145.96 billion yuan [2][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment, with the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut likely to enhance global capital flow and risk appetite [2][12]. Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest level in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][15]. - The overall trend in the oil market remains downward, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector [3][15]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Palm oil prices are expected to improve due to better export data from Malaysia, while soybean oil faces downward pressure from high production expectations [4][30]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply surplus, with auction prices declining, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [29][30]. Group 4: Metals - Gold and silver prices are stabilizing, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which may provide room for further interest rate cuts [20]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including automotive and construction [21]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a slight decline, with expectations for price stabilization as shipping companies adjust their pricing strategies ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the analyzed energy - chemical products are expected to show an oscillatory trend, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices continued to rise. WTI February contract closed up $0.37 to $58.38 per barrel (0.64% increase), Brent February contract closed up $0.31 to $62.38 per barrel (0.50% increase), and SC2602 closed at 442.3 yuan per barrel, up 0.6 yuan per barrel (0.14% increase). The total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 3 to 545, but was still 44 less than the same period last year (7.5% decrease). The US Q3 GDP growth was higher than expected, and geopolitical factors led to a slight increase in oil prices. With the Christmas holiday approaching, trading volume will be light [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. In November, China's bonded marine fuel oil exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while imports increased significantly month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market had some support. The arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market is expected to decline in December, but may rebound in January [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Affected by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela, the cost of asphalt was strongly supported, but terminal demand was weak, and refinery shipments were blocked. Considering limited supply increase and low inventory, the downward price space is limited [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 0.83%, EG2605 fell 3%. PX futures rose 0.61%. Polyester production cuts are being implemented, demand is in the off - season, and the demand for raw materials has decreased. It is expected that PX and TA prices will rebound in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and the upward pressure on ethylene glycol prices is high [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed performance. In November, EU passenger car sales increased, and global natural rubber production and consumption decreased. Domestic rubber production entered the off - season, overseas raw material supply is expected to increase, downstream demand weakened at the end of the year, and tire inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected that rubber prices will oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. The domestic production of methanol was at a high level, and Iranian supply was low. The demand from MTO devices decreased. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. Supply will remain high, and downstream orders and production started to weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will show an oscillatory and weakening trend [6][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China increased. Some devices are planned to reduce production this week, and domestic real - estate construction will slow down, leading to a decline in the demand for pipes and profiles. It is expected that PVC prices will oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on December 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Q3 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than Q2 and market expectations, mainly due to increased consumer spending, exports, and government spending [11]. - The US will keep the oil on the seized tanker, which may be sold or used for strategic reserves. Although Venezuela's exports are threatened, its oil exports are still higher than recent levels [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][15][16][18][19][21][23][25][27][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][32][33][36][37][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][45][47][51][54][57][59]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of different products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [61][63][65][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards [73]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst of crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich research experience and multiple awards [74]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant research achievements and media exposure [75]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with industry experience and relevant awards [76].