1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are likely to rebound with volatility due to geopolitical factors and the expected stable production of OPEC+ in October [1][2] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are expected to be volatile, with their upward or downward trends depending on various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [1][2][4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 10 - month contract rose by $1.58 to $65.59/barrel, a 2.47% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose by $0.99 to $69.14/barrel, a 1.45% increase; SC2510 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel, up 5.6 yuan/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Kazakhstan's August crude output increased by 2% compared to July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the OPEC+ meeting are influencing factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2510 rose 1.13% to 2852 yuan/ton, and LU2511 rose 2.54% to 3559 yuan/ton. The expected reduction of Western arbitrage goods and high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support prices, but demand lacks highlights [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2510 rose 1.17% to 3551 yuan/ton. In September, northern demand may drive up prices, but supply increases may limit the rise. Overall, supply - demand contradictions may ease [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 fell 0.34% to 4756 yuan/ton, EG2601 fell 1.99% to 4339 yuan/ton, and PX futures fell 0.47% to 6834 yuan/ton. PX fundamentals are weak, and TA prices may be supported. Ethylene glycol futures weakened due to inventory expectations [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2601 rose 10 yuan/ton to 15870 yuan/ton, NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12710 yuan/ton, and BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11820 yuan/ton. July global natural rubber output slightly decreased. China's August heavy - truck sales were positive, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2235 yuan/ton. Due to profit improvement and the peak season, demand may pick up in September, and prices may enter a bottom - stage area [6] - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventories are shifting to downstream. With stable costs, prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Market prices in different regions showed different trends. Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports may decline. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On August 30, Russia launched large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine, and Ukraine attacked Russian refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][15][18][21][23][25][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over time, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35][38][41][42] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different commodities, like crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 3 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | ...

Report Summary of Energy and Chemical Options 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical options market involves various sectors including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, and alkali chemicals. - The overall strategy is to construct option - combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy and chemical futures contracts. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2510) is 495, with a price increase of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 1.14%. The trading volume is 7.98 million lots, and the open interest is 3.02 million lots [4]. 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open - interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.53, and the open - interest PCR is 0.71 [5]. 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 600, and the support point is 450 [6]. 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility includes at - the - money implied volatility, volume - weighted implied volatility, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.1, and the volume - weighted implied volatility is 27.54 [7]. 3.5. Strategies and Recommendations - **Crude Oil Options** - Fundamental analysis shows that OPEC has a relatively restrained attitude in supporting prices. The market presents a short - term upward - blocked and downward - fluctuating situation. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long - collar strategy [8]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Options** - Fundamental analysis indicates that domestic supply is loose, and demand is weak. The market is in a weak state. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long - collar strategy [10]. - **Methanol Options** - Fundamental analysis shows that imports increase, and downstream demand is general. The market is in a weak state. - Directional strategy: Construct a bear - spread strategy of put options. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long - collar strategy [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options** - Fundamental analysis shows that port inventory is decreasing. The market is in a weak and wide - range fluctuating state. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Polyolefin Options (Polypropylene, Polyvinyl Chloride, Plastic, Styrene)** - Fundamental analysis shows that inventory levels vary among different products. The market is generally in a weak state. - For polypropylene, the spot long - hedging strategy is to hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Rubber Options** - Fundamental analysis shows the capacity utilization rates of tire enterprises. The market is in a short - term weak state. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Polyester Options (Para - xylene, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip)** - Fundamental analysis shows that PTA inventory is decreasing. The market is in a state of rebound - blocked and weak continuation. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Caustic Soda Options** - Fundamental analysis shows the change in the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises. The market is in a state of short - term upward and high - level fluctuation. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. - **Soda Ash Options** - Fundamental analysis shows the change in soda ash inventory. The market is in a state of low - level support and fluctuation. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long - collar strategy [13]. - **Urea Options** - Fundamental analysis shows that port and enterprise inventories are increasing. The market is in a state of low - level fluctuation. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy. - Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ - Methanol: ★★★ - Pure Benzene: ★★★ - Styrene: ★★★ - Polypropylene: ★★★ - Plastic: ★★★ - PVC: ★★☆ - Caustic Soda: ★★★ - PX: ★★★ - PTA: ★★★ - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ - Short Fiber: ★★★ - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ - Bottle Chip: ★★★ - Propylene: ★★★ - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefins and polyolefins market shows mixed trends with different factors influencing prices. The polyester market is affected by supply - demand dynamics and cost factors. The coal - chemical market has supply and demand changes due to seasonal factors. The chlor - alkali market is facing supply and demand imbalances. The soda - ash and glass market is in a weak situation with different outlooks for the future [2][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefins futures: The intraday trend of the main contracts of olefins futures is first down then up. Production enterprise inventory pressure is controllable, but downstream product cost pressure rises, limiting the upward space of propylene prices. There is still market rigid demand support [2] - Polyolefins futures: The main contracts of polyolefins futures fluctuate narrowly. The demand of the polyethylene downstream agricultural film industry continues to follow up, but overall orders may decline slightly. The supply pressure of polypropylene increases, and the weak fundamentals drag down the market [2] Pure Benzene - Benzene: The price of benzene continues to be weak. Domestic supply increases, demand is weak, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but the real - time demand is weak [3] - Styrene: The main contract of styrene futures closes down in a volatile manner. Crude oil and pure benzene cannot provide effective support. Demand is weak and stable, supply is high, and port inventory accumulates significantly [3] Polyester - PX: The price of PX fluctuates with support at the lower integer level. The supply - demand expectation improves, but the real - time improvement is limited, and it is in a range - bound oscillation [4] - PTA: It runs below 4800 yuan/ton. Terminal weaving orders increase, but the real - time improvement is limited, and it is in a range - bound oscillation [4] - Ethylene Glycol: It falls back after hitting resistance at the 4500 yuan/ton level. The domestic load continues to increase, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillation [4] - Short Fiber: The supply and demand are stable. The price mainly fluctuates with the cost. If the demand improvement is realized in the medium - term, it can be considered for long - position allocation [4] - Bottle Chip: The industry has over - capacity, and the processing margin runs at a low level [4] Coal - Chemical - Methanol: The intraday methanol market is first weak then strong. The supply of inland methanol increases, traditional downstream average start - up declines, and inventory accumulates. But there is an expectation of a stronger market due to downstream device economic repair and pre - holiday stocking [5] - Urea: The futures and spot prices of urea continue to oscillate at a low level. Daily production decreases slightly but is still high year - on - year. The inventory of production enterprises increases, and port inventory also increases. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment around the Indian tender opening [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: It weakens. The cost support is not obvious, supply pressure is high, downstream procurement is not active, and social inventory accumulates. The futures price may oscillate weakly [6] - Caustic Soda: It performs strongly. There is still an overhaul expectation in East China, and the inventory pressure is small. The price is relatively firm but may face supply pressure in the future and is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [6] Soda - Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: It continues to decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory in the industrial chain is high. In the long - term, it is in a supply - demand surplus situation, and short - selling at high rebounds is recommended [7] - Glass: The weak situation continues, and the futures price drops sharply. The spot price decline narrows, and the glass factory destocks. The real - time situation is weak, but at a low - valuation level, long - position at the coal cost level can be considered [7]

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries including polyolefins, crude oil, chlor-alkali, pure benzene-styrene, methanol, PX-PTA-EG, and urea on September 2, 2025. It presents price changes, supply-demand dynamics, and offers investment strategies for each sector. 1. Polyolefins Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the polyolefin market shows a "supply decrease and demand increase" characteristic, with inventory reduction and controllable market pressure. It is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices declined slightly. The basis of some varieties changed, and the spread between different contracts also showed fluctuations [2]. - **Supply**: PE's early - September device maintenance volume remains high, and the scale gradually decreases after the middle of the month. PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation due to new capacity release and the return of maintenance devices [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream industry's开工 rate increased compared to last month, but new orders have weak support [2]. 2. Crude Oil Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Overnight oil prices fluctuated strongly. The market is in a game between geopolitical risk support and long - term oversupply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and look for opportunities to expand spreads after increased volatility [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices rose. The spreads of some refined oil products and cracking spreads also changed [4]. - **Supply - Demand**: OPEC + production cuts, inventory decline, and China's strategic reserve absorption ease short - term pressure, but the expectation of war suppressing demand may lead to a 10% drop in oil prices this year and a large - scale surplus at the end of the year [4]. 3. Chlor - Alkali Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The caustic soda futures market is strong, and the PVC market is in an oversupply situation and is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: The export profit of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit of PVC increased. The开工 rate and profit of related industries also changed [7]. - **Supply**: The开工 rate of the caustic soda and PVC industries declined [7]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda increased, while the demand for PVC remained weak [7]. 4. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene weakens, and the absolute price is under pressure. The short - term driving force of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand later [15]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the spreads between related products also changed [13][14]. - **Supply**: The planned maintenance of pure benzene devices in September is few, and new devices are expected to be put into production. The short - term supply of styrene remains high [15]. - **Demand**: The downstream of pure benzene has multiple loss - making varieties, and the demand for styrene is currently strong but may be affected by future device maintenance [15]. 5. Methanol Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The methanol market has a problem of continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and the basis is weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [21]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the basis and spread changed [21]. - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas methanol enterprises'开工 rate changed, and imports in September are still large [21]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the restart of MTO devices at ports [21]. 6. PX - PTA - EG Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply - demand of PX, PTA, and EG is expected to improve, and short - fiber also has a good supply - demand expectation, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [25]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: PX, PTA, and EG prices and spreads changed. PTA's processing margin decreased slightly [25]. - **Supply**: PX's maintenance devices restart, PTA's planned unplanned maintenance increases, and domestic EG's开工 rate is high [25]. - **Demand**: The polyester and terminal loads increased, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation still exists [25]. 7. Urea Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The urea futures market is weak, mainly due to weak demand. The upward pressure on the futures price is large under high - supply conditions [34]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Urea prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the spreads between different regions also changed [34]. - **Supply**: Although there are local maintenance plans, the daily output remains at about 180,000 tons [34]. - **Demand**: Agricultural off - season and industrial on - demand procurement suppress domestic demand, and dealers' fertilizer - stocking willingness is low [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [3] - Rubber: Oscillating [5] - Methanol: Oscillating, with a bias towards strength [5] - Polyolefins: Oscillating [6] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating, with a bias towards weakness [6] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical commodities on September 2, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - end fluctuations to provide views on price trends for each commodity. For example, due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Russia - Ukraine situation, the oil market's geopolitical pricing may rise again, and oil prices can be considered from a rebound perspective [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Monday, Brent's new November contract rose 0.67 dollars to 68.15 dollars per barrel, a 0.99% increase. SC2510 closed at 488.9 yuan per barrel, up 5.3 yuan or 1.10%. Geopolitical factors such as the possible suspension of diplomatic efforts and the Red Sea missile incident may lead to a rebound in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2510) rose 0.25% to 2832 yuan per ton, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) fell 0.49% to 3474 yuan per ton. The expected reduction in Western arbitrage cargo inflows in September may boost the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, but overall demand for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks significant highlights [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt (BU2510) rose 1% to 3540 yuan per ton. In September, the demand for road construction in the north increases, but the rise in supply in North China and Northeast China may limit price increases. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and prices may rise further [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2601 closed at 4427 yuan per ton, down 0.87%. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume is increasing. TA prices are expected to be supported and oscillate. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate with a bias towards strength due to supply reduction and demand increase [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) remained unchanged at 15860 yuan per ton, while the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 15 yuan to 12680 yuan per ton. Supply weather is favorable, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, demand is stable domestically and weak overseas, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: Due to the recovery of profits, MTO devices may resume production. In September, supply growth is limited, demand is expected to pick up, and inventory is expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5]. - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, inventory is gradually transferred from society to downstream, and fundamentals have few contradictions. Polyolefin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)**: Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and demand for PVC downstream products is limited. With India's higher anti - dumping duties, exports are expected to decline. PVC prices in September are expected to oscillate with a bias towards weakness [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. Market News - Trump is considering suspending diplomatic efforts until more flexibility is shown. Europe is trying to persuade Zelensky to wait for better conditions, which may disrupt the progress made since the Russia - US summit. The EU is formulating a plan to deploy multinational forces to Ukraine [10]. - Despite US pressure, Russia remains India's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 31.4% of India's crude oil imports in July [10]. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][28][29] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides line charts of spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: It presents line charts of spreads between different commodities, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows line charts of production profits for some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [67][68][69] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Market Overview**: The A - share market showed a strong oscillation on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The trading volume in the market was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous industry strengthened across the board, and gold stocks soared. The CPO giants led the AI hardware segment to strengthen again, while the satellite Internet concept weakened and the large - finance sector declined generally [1]. - **Key Products Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed a strong upward trend. Factors such as Trump's attempt to interfere with the Fed, the proposed inclusion of silver in the key minerals list, and the increased expectation of a September interest rate cut were positive for precious metals. However, factors like the rebound of US inflation data and the easing of geopolitical risks restricted the upward space of gold. In the long - term, the continuous increase of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China provided support for gold [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September increases the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment and has high volatility. The supply is increasing, and the demand for lithium in cathode materials is also rising. The inventory situation is complex, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid increase, but if the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: Fed理事提名人米兰很可能在9月美联储会议前就职，几位美联储主席人选也有望担任理事 [6]. - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping stated at the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting that China is willing to jointly build an AI application cooperation center with all parties to share the dividends of AI development [7]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of this year, the total net profit attributable to the parent company of A - share listed companies was 2.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. Nearly 77% of the stocks achieved profitability, and the proportion of stocks with a year - on - year positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company was nearly 46%. Wanchen Group had a 504 - fold increase in performance in the first half of the year [8]. b. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 8/31 | 9/1 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,965.58 | 14,904.15 | - 61.43 | - 0.41% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 3,447.57 | 3,478.96 | 31.39 | 0.91% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 39.67 | 40.65 | 0.98 | 2.47% | [9] c. Morning Comments on Major Products - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable situation, but sector rotation needs attention [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and the domestic economic situation affect the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.1% at night. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine affect oil exports, and OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. The market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.68% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory in coastal areas increased. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber had a narrow - range oscillation on Monday. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the futures can drive the spot price to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in a process of inventory digestion, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and future consumption [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strongly bullish. Multiple factors affect the price, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payrolls data [2][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the supply - demand situation may turn to surplus. The price may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also rising. There is a risk of correction, but if the inventory decreases, the price may rise [4][21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel mills' production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. The market expects an increase in shipments in the second half of the year. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory is accumulating. The export situation is complex, and the market has a weak supply - demand balance. The short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are in a high - level oscillation. The high - level iron - water production boosts the demand, but factors such as inventory changes and price cut expectations put pressure on the prices [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meals**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meals oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the decrease in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to oscillate narrowly [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats oscillated at night. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in August, and the export increased. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is entering a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded, rising 1.53%. The market is mainly gambling on the off - season freight rate space. The price may be weakly volatile in September and may be supported at the end of September and early October [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as SC2510 (crude oil) at a price of 484 with a 0.21% increase, PG2510 (liquefied petroleum gas) at 4,334 with a 0.73% decrease, etc. [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The volume - open interest PCR data of different option varieties are given, which helps describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether a turning point occurs in the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.76 with a - 0.05 change, and the open interest PCR is 0.65 with a 0.03 change [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices of the largest open interests of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlying are analyzed. For instance, the pressure level of crude oil is 600 and the support level is 415 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various option varieties are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility and its change, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 23, and the weighted implied volatility is 25.58 with a - 0.56 change [7]. 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations 3.3.1 Energy - Type Options (Crude Oil) - Fundamental aspect: OPEC shows a restrained attitude to support prices. US refinery demand declines due to reduced imports, and shale oil fluctuates normally. The overall fundamental situation is healthy, and the crack spread remains strong. Market trend: In June, it rose rapidly, then pulled back after reaching a high; since July, it has weakened and fluctuated within a range; in August, it first rose then fell, showing a short - term weak fluctuation. Option factors: Implied volatility remains around the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a short - term weak and fluctuating market; the pressure level is 600 and the support level is 415. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [8]. 3.3.2 Energy - Type Options (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Fundamental aspect: Domestic supply is loose, with high - level and stable operation of major refineries, and high seasonal commodity volume. Import has declined slightly in the past two weeks, and port inventory remains high. Demand is low in summer, and chemical demand has declined slightly. Market trend: After a low - level range - bound fluctuation, it rose significantly and broke through the upper level, then pulled back after reaching a high in July, and accelerated the decline in August before rebounding and then being blocked. Option factors: Implied volatility has dropped significantly and returned to around the average level; the open interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating strong short - selling power; the pressure level is 5400 and the support level is 4200. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.3.3 Alcohol - Type Options (Methanol) - Fundamental aspect: Import arrivals have increased, and port inventory has accumulated to a high level. Demand from port MTO has improved, but overall downstream demand is weak. Market trend: After a sharp decline in July, it fluctuated significantly, and has been weakening since August. Option factors: Implied volatility has declined and fluctuates below the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a short - term weak and fluctuating market; the pressure level is 2600 and the support level is 2250. Strategies: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish call spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.3.4 Alcohol - Type Options (Ethylene Glycol) - Fundamental aspect: Port inventory is 500,000 tons, with a de - stocking of 47,000 tons compared to the previous period; downstream factory inventory days are 13.2 days, a decrease of 0.3 days. In the short term, arrivals are low and departures are high, and port inventory is expected to continue to decline. Market trend: It first declined then rose in June, reached a high and then pulled back; in July, it fluctuated weakly at a low level and then rose before a rapid decline; in August, it continued to fluctuate weakly. Option factors: Implied volatility fluctuates below the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling power; the pressure level is 4600 and the support level is 4400. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.3.5 Polyolefin - Type Options (Polypropylene) - Fundamental aspect: PE production enterprise inventory is 427,000 tons, with a de - stocking rate of - 14.92% compared to the previous period and a stocking rate of 0.40% compared to the same period last year; PP production enterprise inventory is 538,500 tons, with a de - stocking rate of - 5.91% compared to the previous period and a stocking rate of 9.07% compared to the same period last year. Market trend: The decline has narrowed since July, then it stabilized and fluctuated slightly before a rapid decline; in August, it maintained a weak and small - amplitude fluctuation. Option factors: Implied volatility has declined to a level slightly lower than the average; the open interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating a weak market; the pressure level is 7300 and the support level is 6800. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.3.6 Rubber Options - Fundamental aspect: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 71.87%, a decrease of 7.81 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.97%, an increase of 7.01 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Market trend: It fluctuated weakly at a low level in June and then rebounded; since July, it has risen in the short term and then reached a high and pulled back; in August, it gradually recovered and then fluctuated within a range. Option factors: Implied volatility first rose rapidly and then declined to around the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60; the pressure level has dropped significantly to 18000 and the support level is 15750. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.3.7 Polyester - Type Options (PTA) - Fundamental aspect: PTA's overall social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 2.2 million tons, with a de - stocking of 50,000 tons compared to the previous period. Downstream load is gradually increasing, and the number of maintenance in August has increased, with many unexpected maintenance events. Even with the commissioning of new plants, inventory will mainly decrease in the short term. Market trend: It first rose then fell in June, continued to rise and then declined rapidly; in July, it was weak and then rebounded; in August, it declined, then fluctuated slightly and then rebounded rapidly before being blocked. Option factors: Implied volatility fluctuates at a level slightly higher than the average; the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a fluctuating market; the pressure level is 5000 and the support level is 4550. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.3.8 Alkali - Type Options (Caustic Soda) - Fundamental aspect: The average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 82.4%, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous week. Except for the increase in the operating rates in the northwest and southwest regions, other regions have declined. Market trend: It first rose then fell in July, and after a rapid decline in August, it gradually rebounded and showed a short - term bullish and high - level fluctuation. Option factors: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level; the open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a fluctuating market; the pressure level is 3000 and the support level is 2400. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot collar - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.3.9 Alkali - Type Options (Soda Ash) - Fundamental aspect: Last week, the soda ash factory inventory was 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 43,300 tons compared to the previous period; the delivery warehouse inventory was 500,700 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons. The total inventory of factory + delivery warehouse is 2.3682 million tons, a decrease of 38,900 tons compared to the previous period. Market trend: It fluctuated slightly in a narrow range in July and then rebounded; since August, it has continued to fluctuate weakly. Option factors: Implied volatility first rose rapidly and then dropped significantly, and currently still fluctuates at a relatively high level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure; the pressure level is 1640 and the support level is 1180. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13]. 3.3.10 Urea Options - Fundamental aspect: Port inventory is 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons compared to the previous period; enterprise inventory is 1.0858 million tons, an increase of 61,900 tons compared to the previous period, and is at a high level compared to the same period last year. Market trend: It fluctuated widely under the short - selling pressure line in July and then rose rapidly; in August, it continued to fluctuate widely. Option factors: Implied volatility fluctuates slightly around the historical average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure; the pressure level is 1900 and the support level is 1700. Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Quotes Futures Market | Futures Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7399 | 7364 | 7414 | 7360 | -63 | -0.85 | 412274 | 4664 | | Plastic 2605 | 7407 | 7365 | 7421 | 7365 | -68 | -0.91 | 26767 | 576 | | Plastic 2509 | 7344 | 7310 | 7360 | 7309 | -63 | -0.85 | 34910 | -7171 | | PP2601 | 7041 | 7021 | 7056 | 7014 | -51 | -0.72 | 481684 | 7338 | | PP2605 | 7060 | 7035 | 7075 | 7031 | -54 | -0.76 | 39064 | 980 | | PP2509 | 6987 | 6963 | 7006 | 6961 | -51 | -0.73 | 20395 | -6062 | [5] Spot Market - LLDPE: Prices in North China are 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China are 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton, and in South China are 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton [7] - PP: North China's mainstream drawbench prices are 6860 - 7000 yuan/ton, East China's are 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and South China's are 6840 - 7060 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene: The mainstream price in Shandong market is 6550 - 6600 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous workday [7] 3. Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed at 7358 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.42%), with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and an increase in open interest by 1293 lots to 413,567 lots. PP2601 closed at 7020 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (-0.23%), with an increase in open interest by 14,800 lots to 496,500 lots [6] - The weak futures market has affected the spot market sentiment. Traders are actively destocking at the end of the month, and the offers are slightly weaker. The impact of maintenance is decreasing, and new production capacities are being released steadily, which suppresses the market from the supply side. The demand side is gradually transitioning to the peak season, and the overall downstream operating rate is expected to increase, but the short - term raw material procurement is still cautious. The market sentiment has weakened, and the decline in crude oil prices has reduced the cost support, so polyolefins are oscillating weakly [6] 4. Industry News - On August 28, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons (-4.96%) from the previous workday, compared with 695,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - Propylene producers' shipments are smooth, and they still have some willingness to support prices. However, downstream factories mainly purchase at lower prices, and their acceptance of propylene prices has slightly decreased [7] - The PP market has slightly loosened, with some prices falling by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Before noon, downstream factories were cautiously waiting and watching, with limited active inquiries, and the pre - noon trading was weak [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It's a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.46, or 0.72%, to $64.32; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.47, or 0.69%, to $68.27; INE main crude oil futures rose 0.60 yuan, or 0.13%, to 473 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 1.67 million barrels to 13.49 million barrels, a 11.01% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.33 million barrels, a 3.77% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.69 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.33% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.35 million barrels to 47.54 million barrels, a 0.72% decline [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 28, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 18 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 141 [4] - **Supply**: Domestic production has further recovered, with enterprise profits remaining at a medium - high level. There is still room for production to increase, and supply is gradually rising. Imports have increased, and port inventory has accumulated to a high level [4] - **Demand**: Port MTO profits have continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [4] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 28, the 01 contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 1753 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 [6] - **Supply**: More plants are under maintenance, domestic production has declined, and daily output has fallen below 18.5 tons. Short - term supply pressure has eased, and enterprise profits are at a medium - low level [6] - **Demand**: Compound fertilizer production has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventory has risen rapidly. Current demand is mainly concentrated in exports [6] - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventory has increased and remains at a high level year - on - year [6] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long on dips as the downside space is limited [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Bullish Factors**: Southeast Asian weather and rubber forest conditions may limit supply; rubber usually rises in the second half of the year; China's demand is expected to improve [10] - **Bearish Factors**: Macroeconomic expectations are uncertain; demand is in the seasonal off - season; the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, down 1.76 percentage points from last week but up 3.95 percentage points from the same period last year. All - steel tire exports are good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, up 0.19 percentage points from last week but down 4.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories is slow to consume [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [11] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,800 (+ 100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,825 (+ 15) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,825 (+ 20) dollars; Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9,350 (+ 50) yuan; North China butadiene rubber was 11,700 (0) yuan [12] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short term, expect the rubber price to fluctuate, and use a neutral - to - bullish approach, going long on dips and exiting quickly. Partially close the position of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4,946 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,700 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 246 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 151 (- 4) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2,350 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 840 (0) dollars/ton. The cost remained stable, and the spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decline. The downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decline. Factory inventory was 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventory was 853,000 tons (+ 41,000) [13] - **Strategy**: In the current situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Both spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [15] - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with significant upward adjustment potential. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of styrene has been rising. Port inventory has been increasing significantly [15] - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5,965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 7,164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 44 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 152.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.62 yuan/ton [16] - **Strategy**: In the long term, the BZN spread may be adjusted. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [16] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains. The spot price of polyethylene is stable, and the downward valuation space is limited. Overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the seasonal peak season may be approaching, with demand for agricultural film raw materials starting to build up inventory [18] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton; the spot price was 7,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 39 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 38 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.24%, a 0.25% increase. Production enterprise inventory was 427,000 tons, a decrease of 74,900 tons; trader inventory was 59,800 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [18] - **Strategy**: In the long term, the downward trend dominated by cost factors may shift, and the polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [19] - **Analysis**: The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical has been put into operation, and propylene supply has gradually recovered. The downstream operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. In August, there are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation. Although the seasonal peak season may be approaching, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the spot price was 7,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis was 24 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 20 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.11%, a 0.2% increase. Production enterprise inventory was 538,500 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons; trader inventory was 168,200 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons; port inventory was 60,300 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons [19] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6,886 yuan, and PX CFR fell 5 dollars to 849 dollars. The basis was 68 yuan (+ 9), and the 11 - 1 spread was 58 yuan (- 22) [21] - **Supply and Demand**: China's PX operating rate was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; Asia's operating rate was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants have restarted. The PTA operating rate was 70.4%, a 2.5% decrease [21] - **Inventory**: In mid - and early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 294,000 tons, an increase of 55,000 tons year - on - year. At the end of June, inventory was 4.138 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons month - on - month [21] - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN was 264 dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 98 dollars (- 13) [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the rise of crude oil during the peak season [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 32 yuan to 4,792 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 60 yuan/ton to 4,775 yuan. The basis was - 24 yuan (- 6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 56 yuan (- 16) [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 70.4%, a 2.5% decrease. Some plants have undergone maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, and some new plants have been put into operation. The downstream operating rate was 89.9%, a 0.1% decrease [23] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons [23] - **Valuation and Cost**: The spot processing fee of PTA fell 30 yuan to 213 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 11 yuan to 313 yuan [23] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the rise of PX during the peak season [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4,465 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4,527 yuan. The basis was 66 yuan (+ 5), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 41 yuan (+ 5) [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The ethylene glycol operating rate was 75.1%, a 2.7% increase. Some plants at home and abroad have restarted or adjusted their loads. The downstream operating rate was 89.9%, a 0.1% decrease [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons. The import forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on August 27 was 10,000 tons [24] - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha - based production profit was - 356 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 581 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1,104 yuan. The cost of ethylene increased to 842 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 520 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: In the medium term, port inventory may enter an accumulation cycle, and there is downward pressure on valuation [24]