Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2601 opened at 6888 yuan/ton, closed at 6879 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-0.48%); PP2601 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.65%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Futures opened lower and fluctuated, downstream procurement was on - demand, and actual transactions were negotiated individually [6] - Supply Situation: In October, Guangxi Petrochemical's device produced products smoothly, and there are no new production plans in November. Some maintenance devices will restart, and PP maintenance losses will decline month - on - month [6] - Demand Situation: Agricultural film production reached a seasonal peak and declined, pipe demand increased first and then decreased, PP woven production was boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises focused on inventory digestion [6] - Price Trend: Polyolefin prices are expected to remain under pressure, and may be weakly supported by phased restocking demand due to low absolute prices, but will generally fluctuate in the bottom range [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory Level: On November 4, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 69.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day, compared with 72 million tons in the same period last year [7] - PE Market: PE market prices continued to be weak, with LLDPE prices in different regions ranging from 6830 - 7500 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 5830 - 5840 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some PDH device maintenance supported supply, but downstream demand declined [7] - PP Market: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices down 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and mainstream prices in different regions ranging from 6360 - 6610 yuan/ton [8] Group 5: Data Overview - Data Graphs: Include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change graphs [15][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option portfolios dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - For various energy - chemical option underlying futures, data such as the latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change are presented. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2512) is 467, with a change of 2 and a change rate of 0.41% [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.72 with a change of - 0.17, and the open interest PCR is 0.74 with a change of 0.09 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option variety are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 500 and the support point is 440 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Indicators such as at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility are provided. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 27.525, and the weighted implied volatility is 30.25 with a change of 0.56 [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that US refinery demand is rising, shale oil production has a slight increase, and OPEC exports are increasing. The market has been in a state of consolidation. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end crude oil is affected by supply and geopolitical issues. The market has shown a pattern of over - sold rebound. Option strategies involve constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port and enterprise inventories are in a state of high - level shock and low - level accumulation respectively. The market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for call options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is expected to accumulate. The market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Inventory pressure is relatively high. The market is weak. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Social inventory is decreasing. The market is in a state of weak consolidation. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [11] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The load is under pressure, and the market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [11] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The capacity utilization rate is rising, and the market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Soda Ash**: Inventory is in a state of low - level shock. The market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Enterprise and port inventories are decreasing. The market is in a state of low - level shock. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, port prices are falling rapidly, the supply - demand pattern is "supply increasing and demand weakening", inventory is difficult to deplete. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, there is a risk of further decline in the future. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, supply and demand have both increased, the market is in a relatively loose pattern, and there is limited upward momentum. Given the low absolute price, the downside space is also limited. It's recommended to wait and see [9]. - For rubber, the price shows signs of stabilization. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is suggested, and partial position building for the hedge strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is strong and demand is weak, export expectations are weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It's advisable to look for shorting opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, the global monetary policy is loose, the inventory is declining from a high level, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [21]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure is high, demand is in a seasonal rebound, and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the market [24]. - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and the PXN spread is expected to be under pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there is a chance of processing fee repair. It's recommended to pay attention to this opportunity [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is in the process of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 8.50 yuan/barrel, a 1.85% increase, at 467.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 7.99 million barrels, a 7.80% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 16.94 million barrels, a 5.04% increase; overall refined oil inventory decreased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.54 million barrels, a 0.66% decline [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 57 yuan, Inner Mongolia by 15 yuan, and southern Shandong by 20 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 37 yuan to 2143 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 43 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 16 yuan to - 96 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Port prices are falling rapidly, the supply - demand pattern is "supply increasing and demand weakening", inventory is difficult to deplete. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, there is a risk of further decline in the future. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei decreased. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan to 1623 yuan, with a basis of - 73 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 8 yuan, reporting - 86 yuan [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand have both increased, the market is in a relatively loose pattern, and there is limited upward momentum. Given the low absolute price, the downside space is also limited. It's recommended to wait and see [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is near the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. Bulls expect an increase due to seasonal and demand factors, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week but down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a 1% decline. Spot prices of some rubber products decreased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price shows signs of stabilization. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is suggested, and partial position building for the hedge strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 21 yuan to 4680 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 110 yuan, a 19 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 yuan, a 10 - yuan decrease. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.3%, a 1.7% increase; the demand - side downstream operating rate was 50.5%, a 0.7% increase. Factory inventory was 33.8 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons; social inventory was 103 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is strong and demand is weak, export expectations are weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It's advisable to look for shorting opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [14][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene decreased, and the basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene increased, while the futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decline; the three - S weighted operating rate on the demand side was 42.09%, a 0.68% decline. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.95 tons to 19.30 tons [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6888 yuan/ton, a 11 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 7010 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 122 yuan, a 11 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decline. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a 0.83% increase [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global monetary policy is loose, the inventory is declining from a high level, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6576 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 64 yuan, a 14 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure is high, demand is in a seasonal rebound, and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the market [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 22 yuan to 6640 yuan. PX CFR decreased by 1 dollar to 819 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 87%, a 1.1% increase; the Asian load was 78.1%, a 0.4% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices had restarts or maintenance. PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decrease. In October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 42.6 tons, a 4.7 - ton increase year - on - year. In late September, inventory was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase month - on - month. The PXN was 240 dollars, a 4 - dollar decrease; the naphtha crack spread was 107 dollars, a 4 - dollar increase [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and the PXN spread is expected to be under pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 10 yuan to 4596 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 4535 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease. The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decrease; the downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. On October 31, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 220.7 tons, a 0.6 - ton increase. The spot processing fee increased by 32 yuan to 147 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 5 yuan to 240 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there is a chance of processing fee repair. It's recommended to pay attention to this opportunity [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 48 yuan to 3970 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 38 yuan to 4068 yuan. The basis was 76 yuan, a 5 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 79 yuan, a 7 - yuan decrease. The ethylene glycol load was 76.2%, a 2.9% increase; the downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The import arrival forecast was 19.8 tons, and port inventory increased by 3.9 tons to 56.2 tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 723 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 516 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 628 yuan [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is in the process of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to short on rallies [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★☆ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure from demand, with different products facing various supply - demand situations. Positive and negative factors coexist, and investors need to pay attention to specific product trends and relevant influencing factors [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summaries by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had narrow intraday fluctuations. The demand is weak, but the maintenance of Binzhou PDH device may support price stabilization [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. The supply of polyethylene increased due to reduced maintenance and new production, while demand weakened. Polypropylene faced supply pressure from new capacity and reduced maintenance, and demand was limited by low profit [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated around 5,500 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and there are medium - term negatives. The strategy is mainly month - spread reverse arbitrage [3] - Styrene futures were weak. The cost support was insufficient, and the high inventory pressure continued [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation. The strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly, but inventory increased. The supply pressure is high, and the strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern but may face inventory accumulation in mid - to late November. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell sharply. High inventory and weak demand persisted, waiting for supply reduction and demand improvement [6] - Urea prices oscillated narrowly. Downstream demand increased, and inventory decreased, but the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was at a low level due to weak cost support, high supply, and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda prices were slightly stronger, but high inventory and weak demand may keep prices low. Attention should be paid to liquid chlorine prices [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to increased supply and reduced demand. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash [8] - Glass prices rose. Inventory is expected to decrease, but cost increase and insufficient orders may limit the rise [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyolefin market is currently facing a continuous imbalance between supply and demand, which suppresses prices. High production expectations were realized in Q3, with new production capacity gradually released. In November, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost side also lacks support. Overall, the downward pressure on polyolefin prices is expected to continue, and the market may fluctuate in the bottom range, with weak support from potential phased restocking demand due to low absolute prices [7][75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Quarterly Performance**: In Q1, different upstream production rhythms led to different supply pressures for plastics and PP. In Q2, the market declined due to tariff impacts and weak demand. In Q3, the market was driven by policies, with a temporary rebound followed by a decline. In October, new production capacity and weakening cost support led to significant price drops [12][13]. - **Spot Market**: In October, the PE market declined. The monthly average price of LLDPE was 7,225 yuan/ton, down 2.41% month - on - month and 15.40% year - on - year. The monthly average price of LDPE was 9,325 yuan/ton, down 2.73% month - on - month and 14.31% year - on - year. In the PP market, the monthly average price of East China PP raffia was 6,585 yuan/ton, down 3.37% month - on - month and 13.25% year - on - year [14]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Production and Capacity - **PP Production**: In September 2025, China's PP total production was 3.2754 million tons, down 6.20% month - on - month and up 9.84% year - on - year. The loss due to maintenance was still high, but the overall production level increased. In November, some maintenance devices will restart, and the loss due to maintenance is expected to decrease [15]. - **PE Production**: In October 2025, PE production was expected to be 2.7806 million tons, up 10.48% month - on - month. The start - up load rate increased. In November, the maintenance loss is expected to be about 470,000 tons [16]. - **New Capacity**: New capacity from Guangxi Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and BASF Zhanjiang will gradually be released [29]. 3.2.2. Import and Export - **PE**: In September 2025, PE imports were 1.022 million tons, up 7.58% month - on - month and down 10.04% year - on - year. Exports were 99,000 tons, down 14.5% month - on - month and up 63.55% year - on - year [31]. - **PP**: In September 2025, PP imports were 290,100 tons, up 17.46% month - on - month and down 2.96% year - on - year. Exports were 237,600 tons, up 21.98% year - on - year [31]. 3.2.3. Inventory - After the National Day holiday, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased. As of the end of October, the inventory level was 675,000 tons, down 85,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory of PP commercial enterprises was 595,100 tons, and the social sample inventory of PE was 527,400 tons, up 2,900 tons month - on - month [33]. 3.2.4. Cost and Profit Analysis - **Coal**: In October, the coal market was stable to weak. The average profit of coal - based PE was 197.05 yuan/ton, down 431.21 yuan/ton from the previous month. The average profit of coal - based PP was - 258.13 yuan/ton, down 492 yuan/ton month - on - month [36]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the market was worried about oversupply. The average profit of naphtha - based PE was 46.68 yuan/ton, up 186.8 yuan/ton month - on - month. The average loss of oil - based PP was - 246.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.4 yuan/ton month - on - month [37]. - **Propane**: In October, the domestic propane price fluctuated downward and then stabilized. The average profit of PDH - based PP was - 808.19 yuan/ton, a decrease in losses of 384.27 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [38]. 3.2.5. Downstream Demand - **PE**: In October, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased in most cases. The demand for agricultural films and pipes showed different trends, and overall, the demand for raw materials had limited support [52]. - **PP**: In October, the start - up rate of most PP downstream industries remained high, but the new orders had limited continuity, and the support for prices was limited [53]. 3.2.6. White Goods Production - In November 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 2.847 million units, down 17.7% year - on - year. The domestic production schedule growth slowed down significantly in Q4, and the export decline narrowed [66][67]. 3.3. Market Outlook The polyolefin market will continue to be pressured by weak cost support and a loose supply - demand situation. Although the low absolute price may stimulate phased restocking demand, the market is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation [75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In November, with few PX unit overhauls in Asia and China, but concentrated PTA unit overhauls, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak. PX absolute prices are expected to gradually face pressure. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and try to shrink the PX - SC spread [1]. - PTA: In November, there are still many PTA unit overhaul plans. With better - than - expected terminal and polyester demand in October and low polyester inventory, PTA supply - demand is expected to be slightly loose with a small inventory accumulation expectation. PTA will continue to oscillate at a low level. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and treat TA1 - 5 as a rolling reverse spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): In November, domestic supply is high, overseas shipments are concentrated, and inventory accumulation is expected to be high, putting pressure on the price. The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and do a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 on rallies [1]. - Short Fiber: In November, supply is expected to remain high, demand may weaken seasonally, and cost support is limited. Short - fiber prices will gradually face pressure. The strategy is similar to PTA for PF12, and try to shrink the PF processing margin when it is above 1000 [1]. - Bottle Chips: In November, supply changes little, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Bottle - chip prices will follow the cost side, and the processing margin will fluctuate with raw material costs. The strategy is similar to PTA for PR, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [1]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: In November, supply is expected to increase, demand support is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The overall trend is bearish, and it is necessary to track downstream restocking rhythm [2]. - PVC: In October, PVC prices continued to decline. In November - December, supply pressure will continue due to new capacity and high - season operation, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Methanol Industry The current market is trading the "weak reality" logic centered on high port inventory. Before the Iranian gas restriction, the weak reality will continue to be priced in. The 01 - contract inventory problem cannot be solved [3][4][5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: In November, supply is expected to be loose, demand support is limited, and although the East China port inventory decreased in October, it may increase later. Pure - benzene prices are expected to have weak driving force, but attention should be paid to unit changes [8]. - Styrene: In November, supply may slightly decrease, demand is expected to change little, and the supply - demand may be in a tight - balance state. However, high port inventory will limit price increases. The strategy is to be bearish on EB12 price rebounds [8]. Polyolefin Industry PP supply recovery has slowed down due to unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand has recovered, but the agricultural film peak is approaching. Overall, supply will increase and demand will decrease, and there is inventory pressure on the 01 - contract. The 05 - contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities, and the monthly spread is suitable for reverse spreads [10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain Price and Spread - Upstream: Brent crude oil (December) dropped 0.1% to $65.00/barrel, WTI crude oil (December) dropped 0.7% to $60.57/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.4% to $573/ton, etc. [1] - Downstream: POY150/48 price remained unchanged at 6415 yuan/ton, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged at 6690 yuan/ton, etc. [1] - PX: CFR China PX rose 0.4% to $820/ton, PX spot price (RMB) dropped 2.4% to 6753 yuan/ton [1]. - PTA: PTA East China spot price dropped 0.6% to 4535 yuan/ton, TA2601 futures rose 0.4% to 4586 yuan/ton [1]. - MEG: MEG port inventory dropped 9.7% to 52.3 million tons, MEG arrival expectation rose 273.6% to 19.8 million tons [1]. 开工率 - Asian PX开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.1%, Chinese PX开工率 rose 1.1% to 87.0%, PTA开工率 dropped 0.8% to 78.0%, etc. [1] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price and Spread - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained at 2500 yuan/ton, East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price dropped 1.1% to 4610 yuan/ton [2]. 开工率 - Caustic soda industry开工率 rose 0.1% to 85.6%, PVC total开工率 dropped 1.9% to 73.7% [2]. 库存 - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory dropped 3.8% to 18.8 million tons, PVC upstream factory inventory dropped 7.4% to 33.4 million tons [2]. Methanol Industry Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2180 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's north line dropped 9.09% to 150 yuan/ton [3]. 库存 - Methanol enterprise inventory rose 4.36% to 37.606%, methanol port inventory dropped 0.38% to 150.6 million tons [4]. 开工率 - Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 dropped 0.09% to 75.78%, downstream external - procurement MTO device开工率 rose 7.63% to 84.06% [5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price and Spread - CFR China pure benzene rose 0.4% to $677/ton, styrene East China spot price rose 1.1% to 6470 yuan/ton [8]. 库存 - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 14.1% to 8.50 million tons, styrene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 4.7% to 19.30 million tons [8]. 开工率 - Asian pure benzene开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.8%, domestic styrene开工率 dropped 3.7% to 66.7% [8]. Polyolefin Industry Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6968 yuan/ton, down 0.99% from the previous day, PP2601 closed at 6590 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous day [10]. 库存 - PE enterprise inventory dropped 19.16% to 41.6 million tons, PP enterprise inventory dropped 6.80% to 59.5 million tons [10]. 开工率 - PE device开工率 dropped 0.73% to 80.9%, PP device开工率 rose 1.5% to 77.1% [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but currently, it is advisable to wait and see as the market tests OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, the port price has dropped rapidly, and the inventory remains high and difficult to deplete. With supply increasing and demand weakening, if the high - inventory issue persists, the market may decline further. It is recommended to wait and see as chasing short after the sharp decline is not cost - effective and there is no driving force for long positions [3]. - For urea, supply has returned and compound fertilizer production has increased. Although downstream demand has followed up and pre - orders have slightly risen, the supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the price downside is also restricted. It is advisable to look for short - term long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, the price seems to have stabilized. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [11]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, but supply is high with many new devices to be commissioned. Domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, so it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Although the supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling periodically [17]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The spot price is stable, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. With high inventory and a large number of warehouse receipts, the cost - side supply - surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance operations and low processing fees. PX inventory is difficult to deplete, and PXN is expected to be under pressure in November. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there may be inventory depletion, but the processing fee expansion is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair in the short term [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry's supply is high, and imports are increasing. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to short on rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 458.90 yuan/barrel, high - sulfur fuel oil at 2751.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil at 3255.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, test OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the Taicang price dropped by 35 yuan, Inner Mongolia remained stable, and Lunan dropped by 5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped by 28 yuan to 2180 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 25 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 4 to - 80 [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory, supply - demand imbalance [3]. Urea - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the Shandong spot price dropped by 10 yuan, Henan remained unchanged, and Hubei dropped by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped by 2 yuan to 1625 yuan, with a basis of - 57 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 78 [5]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - term long opportunities on dips as the supply - demand is relatively loose but the price downside is limited [7]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber price has returned to the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. As of October 30, 2025, the full - steel tire operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week but down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 1% [7][9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit, partial position building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PVC01 contract dropped by 65 yuan to 4701 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis was - 91 yuan, up 15 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 292 yuan, down 8 yuan. The overall operating rate was 78.3%, up 1.7%. Factory inventory was 33.8 tons, up 0.4 tons, and social inventory was 103 tons, down 0.5 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term due to high supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the spot price of pure benzene dropped by 144 yuan/ton to 5350 yuan/ton, and the futures price also dropped. The spot price of styrene dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 6400 yuan/ton, and the futures price dropped by 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene was 66.72%, down 2.53%. The Jiangsu port inventory of styrene decreased by 0.95 tons to 19.30 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling periodically as the port inventory decreases significantly [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the futures price of polyethylene dropped by 69 yuan/ton to 6899 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7010 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, down 0.56%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons [19]. - **Strategy**: The price may maintain a low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the futures price of polypropylene dropped by 61 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6640 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, up 0.16%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons [21][22]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side supply - surplus pattern suppresses the market, and it is in a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory [23]. PX - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PX01 contract rose by 30 yuan to 6618 yuan, and the PX CFR rose by 3 dollars to 820 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 87%, up 1.1%, and the Asian load was 78.1%, down 0.4%. The PTA load was 78%, down 0.8% [23]. - **Strategy**: PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see as there is no driving force and the valuation is at a neutral level [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the PTA01 contract rose by 16 yuan to 4586 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 4510 yuan. The PTA load was 78%, down 0.8%, and the downstream load was 91.7%, up 0.3%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 24 was 220.1 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons [25]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair in the short term as the supply maintenance is expected to increase and there may be inventory depletion but limited processing fee expansion [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: On November 3, 2025, the EG01 contract dropped by 14 yuan to 4018 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped by 41 yuan to 4106 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.2%, up 2.9%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 52.3 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies as the supply is high, imports are increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [30].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report [2] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Covered Option Types: Energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, L, EB), polyester (PX, PTA, PF, PR), alkali chemicals (SH, SA, UR), and others (rubber) [3] - General Strategy: Construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, and enhance returns through spot hedging or covered strategies [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Multiple underlying futures are presented, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc., with details on the latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators (volume PCR and open interest PCR) are provided for various options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for each option are determined based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, are presented for different options [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Each Option Type Crude Oil Options - Fundamental Analysis: US refinery demand is stabilizing and rising, shale oil production cut is small, OPEC exports are increasing but mostly absorbed by China, and European refined product inventory is decreasing while crude oil inventory is rising [8] - Market Analysis: The crude oil market has shown a pattern of weakening, consolidation, and then a rebound since July [8] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility has declined to near the average, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 500 and 450 respectively [8] - Strategy Recommendations: For volatility, construct a neutral short call + put option combination; for spot hedging, use a long collar strategy [8] LPG Options - Fundamental Analysis: High production and inventory in the US, potential extreme weather in winter and Sino - US trade trends may affect prices, and OPEC + policies will impact future exports [10] - Market Analysis: The LPG market has experienced a decline, followed by a rebound and then a resistance to further increase [10] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility has significantly declined to below the average, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 4500 and 4000 respectively [10] - Strategy Recommendations: Similar to crude oil, construct a neutral short call + put option combination for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Methanol Options - Fundamental Analysis: Port inventory is increasing at a slower rate, and enterprise inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year [10] - Market Analysis: The methanol market has shown a weak trend with some rebounds [10] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, open interest PCR indicates a weak and volatile market, and the pressure and support levels are 2300 and 2200 respectively [10] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Ethylene Glycol Options - Fundamental Analysis: EG load has decreased, port inventory is increasing, and it has entered a inventory accumulation cycle [11] - Market Analysis: The ethylene glycol market has been in a weak trend [11] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility fluctuates below the average, open interest PCR indicates strong short - side power, and the pressure and support levels are 4500 and 4050 respectively [11] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polypropylene Options - Fundamental Analysis: PP inventory pressure is higher than PE [11] - Market Analysis: The polypropylene market has shown a weak trend [11] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility has declined to near the average, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 7000 and 6300 respectively [11] - Strategy Recommendations: Use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber Options - Fundamental Analysis: Imported rubber prices are rising, but downstream procurement is weak [12] - Market Analysis: The rubber market has been in a weak consolidation pattern [12] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility has decreased to below the average, open interest PCR is below 0.6, and the pressure and support levels are 17000 and 14000 respectively [12] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility [12] PTA Options - Fundamental Analysis: PTA load is increasing slightly, and maintenance volume in October has decreased [12] - Market Analysis: The PTA market has shown a weak trend [12] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, open interest PCR indicates a volatile market, and the pressure and support levels are 4600 and 4300 respectively [12] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility [12] Caustic Soda Options - Fundamental Analysis: Non - aluminum demand for caustic soda has not shown significant restocking, and cost support has weakened [13] - Market Analysis: The caustic soda market has been in a weak downward trend [13] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility is at a high level, open interest PCR indicates a weak and volatile market, and the pressure and support levels are 2600 and 2240 respectively [13] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] Soda Ash Options - Fundamental Analysis: Soda ash inventory has increased slightly [13] - Market Analysis: The soda ash market has been in a weak consolidation pattern [13] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, open interest PCR indicates strong short - side pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1300 and 1100 respectively [13] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] Urea Options - Fundamental Analysis: Enterprise inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and port inventory is decreasing [14] - Market Analysis: The urea market has been in a weak and volatile pattern [14] - Option Factor Analysis: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, open interest PCR indicates strong short - side pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1800 and 1600 respectively [14] - Strategy Recommendations: Construct a neutral short call + put option combination for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Group 7: Charts - Charts for each option type are provided, including price trends, volume and open interest, PCR indicators, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels [15][36][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market has weak demand support in the short - term due to high supply, low downstream alumina prices, and shrinking industry profits. However, there may be support in the medium - to long - term as the demand procurement cycle approaches and there may be concentrated stocking in the fourth quarter and more alumina production in the first quarter of next year [1]. - The PVC market is expected to continue the logic of a lackluster peak season. The supply has returned to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resumed production this week, while domestic downstream demand remains low, and the cost side provides only bottom - line support [1]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the short - term supply is stable with some plant overhauls offset by toluene and xylene supplements. The demand has strengthened slightly but the overall expectation is weak, and the cost support from oil prices is limited [2]. - For PTA, the spot basis is weak due to increased device loads and new production, and the expected rebound is under pressure [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the upward momentum is weakening due to port inventory changes, refinery maintenance, and falling oil prices. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - For short - fiber, the supply is high, the demand has improved marginally but the downstream's willingness to chase price increases is low. The cost support is limited, and the price is expected to face pressure in the rebound, although it is relatively stronger than raw materials due to low inventory [2]. - For bottle - chips, the demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene in China is abundant with device restarts and new capacity expectations. The demand support is limited as most downstream products are in the red and some secondary - downstream inventories are high. The overall supply - demand expectation is loose, and the price drive is limited [5]. - Styrene is under pressure from inventory and industry profits. Although there are more planned and unplanned device shutdowns, new production from some plants maintains supply pressure. The demand support is limited as downstream industries mainly make rigid purchases due to high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand, resulting in a decline in both price and basis. The inland market has weak sales as producers offer discounts and downstream buyers are hesitant. The demand side is weak as multiple MTO units reduce loads and plan more maintenance. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and overseas gas restriction expectations [7][8]. Polyolefins - For PP, the supply recovery is slow due to more unplanned maintenance. For PE, the maintenance is peaking, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side has improved with rising downstream operating rates, especially in the agricultural film sector. Both inventories are decreasing. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Prices - The price of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged on October 30 compared to October 29. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.9% [1]. - Among futures, SH2509 increased by 0.4%, SH2601 decreased by 1.9%, V2509 decreased by - 0.3%, and V2601 decreased by - 0.2% [1]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 0.1% to 85.6% on October 24 compared to October 17, and the Shandong sample operating rate increased by 3.2% to 86.6%. The total PVC operating rate decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [1]. Demand - The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda, such as the viscose staple fiber industry, remained unchanged, while the printing and dyeing industry's operating rate increased by 0.8%. For PVC, the operating rates of downstream products such as pipes and profiles increased, and the pre - sales volume increased by 14.4% [1]. Inventory - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong decreased by 3.8% and 8.1% respectively. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 7.4%, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.3% [1]. Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - PX futures 2512 decreased by 0.8%, PX12 - PX01 decreased by 1.7%, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 0.5% on October 30 compared to October 29 [2]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The cash flow of FDY150/96 increased by - 0.5%, the polyester bottle - chip processing fee increased by 5.3%, and the bottle - chip futures PR2601 price decreased by 1.0% [2]. Operating Rates - The PTA operating rate increased by 2.1% to 78.8%, the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 5.0% to 73.3%, and the direct - spinning short - fiber operating rate remained unchanged at 94.3% [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.3% on October 30 compared to October 29 [5]. Product Prices and Spreads - The pure benzene East - China spot price decreased by 0.4%, the styrene East - China spot price decreased by 1.2%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 36.0% [5]. Operating Rates - The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 3.6% to 72.7%, the styrene operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 69.3%, and the downstream PS operating rate remained unchanged at 53.8% [5]. Inventory - The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [5]. Methanol Prices - MA2601 decreased by 2.17% to 2208 yuan/ton, MA2605 decreased by 1.59% to 2284 yuan/ton, and the port Taicang spot price decreased by 1.14% to 2175 yuan/ton on October 30 compared to October 29 [6]. Inventory - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.606%, the port inventory decreased by 0.38% to 150.6 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.53% to 188.3% [7]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.09% to 75.78%, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.37% to 73.3%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.63% to 84.06% [8]. Polyolefins Prices - L2601 decreased by 0.58% to 7015, PP2601 decreased by 0.51% to 6651, and the East - China PP拉丝 spot price decreased by 0.76% to 6510 on October 30 compared to October 29 [10]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.85% to 45.8%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, and the PP powder device operating rate increased by 7.1% to 41.4% [10]. Inventory - The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, the PE social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5 tons, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.56 tons, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [10].