银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 17 日星期四 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金坐上过山车，一度升破 3370 美元关口，但在特朗普否认 | | 研究员：王伟 | 已起草解雇信函后收窄涨幅，最终收涨 0.68%，收报 3345.985 美元/盎司；伦敦银小幅 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 走高，最终收涨 0.49%，报 37.87 美元/盎司。受外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.36%， | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 报 779.28 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.02%，报 9162 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：有关特朗普将解雇鲍威尔的传闻引发市场震荡，美元指数盘中跳水，最终 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 收跌 0.23%，报 98.39。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月17日（周四）晚盘盘初下跌0.32%报770.2元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月17日（周四）晚盘盘初下跌0.05%报9110.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive performance with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index both rising over 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index also closed in the green. The trading volume increased to 1.56 trillion, nearly 100 billion more than the previous day, indicating genuine capital inflow into the market [1]. Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector was particularly strong, with nearly ten stocks hitting the daily limit, including Chengdu Xian Dao and Xin Li Tai. This upward trend was not sudden, as there had been signs of support for innovative drugs from policies in the days prior, attracting capital to this sector based on solid logic rather than speculation [3]. - The printed circuit board (PCB) sector also performed well, with stocks like Man Kun Technology and Peng Ding Holdings reaching their daily limits. The strength in this sector is attributed to the recovery in demand from downstream consumer electronics and new energy, leading to increased orders and improved earnings expectations [3]. - The CPO sector showed significant gains, with stocks like Xin Yi Sheng rising over 8% and Jian Qiao Technology hitting the daily limit. This sector is closely related to AI computing power and has become active again as market sentiment improved, indicating ongoing investor interest in technology growth stocks [3]. - Conversely, the precious metals sector experienced a decline, with Shandong Gold falling over 2%. This shift can be understood as a normal rotation in the market, where increased risk appetite leads funds to move away from defensive assets like precious metals towards more elastic sectors [3]. Investment Insights - The current market dynamics reflect a logical underpinning rather than random speculation, with clear reasons for the rises in the pharmaceutical, PCB, and CPO sectors. For long-term investors, focusing on companies with solid earnings expectations and following capital flows is deemed more reliable than chasing hot trends [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5][15]. Core Insights - The report anticipates significant earnings growth for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2025, with some companies expected to achieve over 50% year-on-year growth due to rising metal prices and increased production [4][5]. - The long-term trend for gold prices is expected to rise, driven by changes in monetary credit structures and low gold reserves in China, suggesting a sustained upward movement in gold prices [5]. - The copper market is projected to experience a long-term bullish cycle due to limited new supply and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [5]. - The steel industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as the government addresses low-price competition among enterprises [5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Key companies such as Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining are highlighted for their strong earnings growth potential in 2025H1, with year-on-year growth rates exceeding 50% for several firms [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the historical low valuation of the gold sector, suggesting potential for recovery and recommending stocks like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to limited new supply and increasing demand, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended for investment [5]. - The aluminum sector is projected to recover significantly in 2025, with companies like Yun Aluminum and China Hongqiao highlighted for their cost improvements and stable dividends [5]. Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is undergoing a transformation with government measures to optimize supply and demand, recommending companies like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel for their stable earnings [5][10]. Growth Cycle Investment - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, the valuation center for stable supply-demand sectors like new energy manufacturing is expected to rise, recommending companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [5].

从指数持仓来看，中证香港300上游指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（28.76%）、中国石油股份 （13.17%）、紫金矿业（10.73%）、中国神华（9.47%）、中国石油化工股份（9.06%）、中国宏桥 （4.45%）、中煤能源（3.29%）、招金矿业（3.19%）、洛阳钼业（2.74%）、兖矿能源（2.33%）。 从中证香港300上游指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证香港300上游指数持仓样本的行业来看，石油与天然气占比51.38%、贵金属占比15.91%、煤炭占 比15.56%、工业金属占比14.64%、油气开采与油田服务占比1.07%、稀有金属占比0.84%、其他有色金 属及合金占比0.59%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收 购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 金融界7月17日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证香港300上游指数 (H300上游，H30100)报2639.21点。 本文源自：金融界 数据 ...

金十图示：2025年07月17日（周四）上海黄金交易所市场行情 | 川区十大区川 | 0 | 以父重 | | 加权平均价 | 771.40 | 成交重 | 413.04 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成交金额 | | 市场持仓 | | 成交金额 | 318622911.2 | 市场持仓 | | | 交收方向 | | 交收量 | | 交收方向 | | 交收量 | | | Au(T+D) | | | | Au(T+N1) | | | | | 开盘价 | 772.04 | 最高价 | 778.23 | 开盘价 | = | 最高价 | | | 最低价 | 769.54 | 收盘价 | 770.92 | 最低价 | | 收盘价 | | | 涨跌(元) | 1 -1.1 | 涨跌幅 | $ -0.14% | 涨跌(元) | | 涨跌幅 | = 0 | | 加权平均价 | 772.66 | 成交量 | 31414 | 加权平均价 | 0 | 成交量 | 342 | | 成交金额 | 24272579880 | 市场持仓 | 208770 | 成交 ...

Market Overview - The three major stock indices in China collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3516.83 points, up 0.37% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10873.62 points, up 1.43% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2269.33 points, up 1.76% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The electronic components sector led the gains, with companies like Mankun Technology hitting the daily limit of 20% increase, and Shengyi Electronics rising over 13% [4] - The CPO concept showed strong performance throughout the day, while the military equipment sector was also active, with companies like Zongheng Co. and Chenxi Aviation seeing significant increases [5][6] - Conversely, the precious metals sector experienced declines, with Shandong Gold dropping over 2% [7] Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into sectors such as electronics, computers, and communications, while there was a net outflow from public utilities, real estate, and coal sectors [8] - Specific stocks like Changshan Beiming and Runhe Software saw net inflows of 2 billion yuan and 925 million yuan, respectively [9] - On the outflow side, companies like China Electric Power and Sunshine Power faced sell-offs of 444 million yuan and 397 million yuan, respectively [10] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities noted that overseas liquidity remains volatile, with a short-term rebound in the US dollar, leading to limited domestic opportunities in July [12] - CITIC Securities highlighted that mid-year performance reports could drive market sentiment towards technology sectors [13] - Galaxy Securities mentioned that the large financial sector is entering a phase of rotation and adjustment [14]

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月17日（周四）收盘下跌0.16%报770.78元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月17日（周四）收盘上涨0.11%报9124.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

7月17日，A股三大指数震荡走强，截至收盘，沪指涨0.37%，深成指涨1.43%。全天成交1.56万亿元，较前一交易日增量985亿元；超3500股上 涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3516.83 | +13.05 | +0.37% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 10873.62 | +152.81 | +1.43% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 2269.33 | +39.14 | +1.76% | 盘面上，CPO概念全天强势，剑桥科技、长飞光纤等多股涨停；医药板块集体走强，成都先导、信立泰、亚太药业等涨停封板；军工股活跃， 中航沈飞创历史新高；PCB、航天航空、医疗服务等板块涨幅居前。另一方面，贵金属板块全天低位震荡，山东黄金跌超2%；保险、银行、电 力、房地产等板块跌幅居前。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 . | 涨跌 | 涨幅� | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601003 柳钢股份 | | 5.57 | +0.51 ...

盘面上，CPO概念全天强势，军工装备板块活跃，医药、消费电子、钢铁板块涨幅居前；贵金属板块低 迷，地产、银行、燃气、电力股跌幅居前。 7月17日，三大股指集体收涨，沪指报收3516.83点，涨0.37%；深成指报收10873.62点，涨1.43%；创业 板指报收2269.33点，涨1.76%。沪深两市全天成交额1.54万亿，较上个交易日放量973亿。全市场超 3500只个股上涨，超1600只个股下跌。 盘面上，CPO概念全天强势，军工装备板块活跃，医药、消费电子、钢铁板块涨幅居前；贵金属板块低 迷，地产、银行、燃气、电力股跌幅居前。 | 板块名称 | | 涨幅♣ 主力净量 主力金额 | | 板块名称 | 涨幅合 | 主力净量 | 王力金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元件 | +4.64% | 1.95 | +26.95 Z | 贵金属 | -1.01% | -1.67 | -5.51 乙 | | 兵装重组概念 | +4.22% | 2.04 | +7.747 | 保险 | -0.71% | -0.02 | +8580万 | | ...