1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, for different asset classes, there are short - term investment suggestions: - **Equity Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Commodity Categories**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, cautious and short - term cautiously go long [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautiously go long [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, intensifying short - term Sino - US game. The US dollar index and RMB exchange rate weaken, global financial markets fluctuate violently, and global risk appetite significantly cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but short - term Sino - US game intensifies, and domestic risk appetite cools significantly. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced, increasing policy support [3][4]. - **Market Trading Logic**: Focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US game. Short - term macro upward drive weakens; follow - up attention on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and domestic incremental policy implementation [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro Situation**: Overseas, Sino - US game intensifies, dollar and RMB weaken, global risk appetite cools, and precious metals strengthen. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, risk appetite cools, and multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Equity index has short - term high - level adjustment, treasury bonds oscillate in the short - term, black metals oscillate, non - ferrous metals adjust, energy and chemicals oscillate, and precious metals are strong - side oscillating at high levels. All are with cautious operation suggestions [3]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stock market drops significantly due to the drag of energy metals, semiconductors, and batteries. Fundamentally, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, and risk appetite cools. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: Last Friday, steel futures and spot prices declined slightly, and market transactions were at a low level. After the weekend, Sino - US trade conflict escalated, and market risk - aversion increased. Fundamentally, demand is weak, inventory increases by 127000 tons, and supply is expected to remain high. The steel market may be weak in the short - term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Iron ore demand is strong, but due to the weakening steel market and Sino - US trade conflict, the negative feedback may come earlier. It is recommended to short at high prices next week [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Last Friday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is okay, but supply increases in some areas. Silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range [6]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Not mentioned in the provided content. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Tariff concerns resurfaced last Friday night. US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increases. Some major copper mines have supply disruptions, but most are expected to resume production [8]. - **Aluminum**: Last Friday, Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell, following copper. During the holiday, domestic aluminum social inventory accumulated by 200000 tons, supply is rigid, and demand weakens marginally [9][10]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight globally, but demand improvement is limited, and high prices suppress consumption. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production increases, inventory decreases slightly. Sino - US trade conflict and 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation may bring pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly. The 2511 contract faces warehouse receipt digestion pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Production increases, inventory is high, and warehouse receipt quantity increases. Supply is high, demand is weak, and prices depend on the implementation of storage - purchase news [11]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Gaza cease - fire agreement and US tariff statements lead to a significant drop in oil prices. OPEC+增产 will continue to put downward pressure on prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline drives asphalt price down. Demand in the peak season is almost over, supply pressure increases, and asphalt may oscillate weakly [13]. - **PX**: It oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. Although PTA high - level operation provides some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [13]. - **PTA**: Downstream demand is weak, supply remains high, and port inventory increases. Prices will continue to run weakly [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory rises, demand deteriorates, and supply increases. It is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low level [14]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector, and terminal orders have limited improvement. It may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply growth far exceeds demand recovery, inventory increases, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: After the holiday, supply and demand both increase, but new capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure [15]. - **LLDPE**: After the holiday, supply increases and demand recovers slowly. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is less than expected, and prices will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Supply is above 190000 tons per day, and demand is weak. The short - term price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on export policy [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Sino - US trade tension intensifies, and the CBOT soybean market is under pressure. Domestic short - term soybean meal replenishment may increase, but in the fourth quarter, supply is sufficient. CBOT soybean and domestic soybean meal may be under short - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the import of Australian rapeseed [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decrease before the import of Australian rapeseed. Palm oil has some support, and soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report is bearish, with inventory rising unexpectedly. In the short - term, there is a risk of correction, but in the medium - term, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall [17].

Core Viewpoint - The overall price index in Linyi Mall decreased to 102.03 points this month, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.43% and a year-on-year decline of 0.84% [1] Price Index Summary - Among 14 categories of goods, 7 categories saw price increases while 7 categories experienced declines [3] - The top two categories with price increases were ceramics and board materials, while the top two categories with price declines were steel and household appliances/audio-visual equipment [3] Ceramics Price Index - The ceramics price index rose to 106.35 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.43 points [5] - Subcategories such as sanitary ceramics, daily ceramics, and building ceramics saw increases of 1.74 points, 0.13 points, and 0.01 points respectively, while craft ceramics remained stable [5] - The demand for ceramics is expected to continue rising due to the upcoming consumption season and infrastructure projects [5] Board Materials Price Index - The board materials price index increased to 95.90 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.05 points [8] - The increase was driven by a rise in demand as construction projects ramped up and dealers increased their inventory [8] - The production costs for board materials rose due to higher raw material prices, leading to a slight increase in market average selling prices [8] Steel Price Index - The steel price index fell to 95.16 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.50 points [11] - All subcategories of steel experienced declines, with structural steel, construction steel, board steel, and pipe steel dropping by 3.42 points, 3.37 points, 2.54 points, and 2.06 points respectively [11] - The steel market faced weak demand due to a sluggish real estate market and insufficient construction activity [11] Household Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment Price Index - The price index for household appliances and audio-visual equipment decreased to 102.50 points, with a month-on-month decline of 0.67 points [14] - Significant price drops were observed in cooling appliances and fans, while kitchen appliances saw mixed performance [14] - The overall market for household appliances showed a downward trend as demand for cooling products decreased with cooler weather [14] Summary of Price Index Changes - The total price index decreased from 102.47 to 102.03, a drop of 0.44 points [15] - Specific category changes included: - Ceramics: increased from 105.92 to 106.35 [15] - Board materials: increased from 95.85 to 95.90 [15] - Steel: decreased from 97.66 to 95.16 [15] - Household appliances: decreased from 103.17 to 102.50 [15]

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the A - share market had a positive start, with the cycle sector rising strongly, but there was also a phenomenon of rising and then falling. The bond market also had a good start, and the futures of various bond varieties warmed up. Different commodity futures showed different trends, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed according to the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and external factors of each variety [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market had a positive start, with the technology main line remaining active. It is recommended to sell put options with an exercise price of around 6800 on MO2511 on dips to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the long - holiday, the bond market had a positive start. The 10 - year Treasury bond has investment value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. The T2512 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low levels, and after the volatility of options peaks, out - of - the - money options can be sold at high prices. For silver, pay attention to whether the short - term supply shortage can be alleviated. In the non - delivery months of October - November, the upward trend may ease, and long positions should be cautious [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market may gradually trade on the peak - season expectation, and it is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts [2]. Black Commodities - **Steel**: The steel price remained stable during the holiday. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the single - side, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread when it is high, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar should converge [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - side disturbance increased during the holiday, and the iron ore is expected to be strong. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 760 - 830, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the holiday, the coal price in the production area was weak. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1080 - 1240, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was implemented before the holiday, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply shortage problem continues, and long positions should be held. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The market supply is sufficient, and the main contract runs in the range of 2850 - 3050. The macro - economy boosts the aluminum price, and the main contract reference range is 20700 - 21300. The price of waste aluminum is firm, and the main contract reference range of aluminum alloy is 20200 - 20800 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory accumulation in London zinc. The main contract reference range is 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: The macro - economy boosts the price, and the main contract reference range is 120000 - 126000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price fluctuates and strengthens slightly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200. The stainless - steel price fluctuates and weakens, and the main contract reference range is also 12600 - 13200 [2]. Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The easing of the Middle East situation reduces the geopolitical risk premium, and the short - term loose supply - demand situation suppresses the oil price, which is expected to be weak [2]. - **Urea**: The large inventory accumulation suppresses the price. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, and the short - term support level is 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton. For options, after the implied volatility rises, reduce the position when the price is high [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil - price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for the November contract and look for opportunities to short on the rebound, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation improves but is still weak in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the support at around 4500, and conduct 1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. The processing fee on the disk fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100, and it is recommended to increase the position at low levels, but the driving force is limited [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectation weakens in the fourth quarter, and the bottle - chip is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation channel. The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (MEG)**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to go short on the 01 contract, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage when the price is high [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trading was light during the holiday, and the inventory accumulated. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. - **PVC**: The spot - purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is loose, and the price - driving force is limited. The 2603 contract is expected to fluctuate with styrene and the oil price in the short term [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short on the rebound of the November contract and increase the position when the EB - BZ spread is low [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the holiday, the natural - rubber price rebounded, driving the BR price up. It is recommended to go long on NR2512 and short on BR2512 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The post - holiday trading volume increased, and the basis strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [2]. - **PP**: The PDH profit was greatly repaired, and the trading improved. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthened, and the trading was okay. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price rebounded steadily, and the domestic price is under supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 2900 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Pig**: The breeding side increased the slaughter, and the supply pressure was released. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **Corn**: The supply increased gradually, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Edible Oils**: The domestic edible - oil price on the continuous contract rose after the holiday. The main contract of palm oil may continue to rise to 9700 in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is gradually on the market, and the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. - **Egg**: The post - holiday demand weakened, and the price is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract when the price is low and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse - arbitrage opportunity [2]. - **Apple**: The price of high - quality apples is stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is not high. The main contract runs around 8500 [2]. - **Jujube**: As the picking time approaches, the long - short game intensifies. The price is bearish in the medium - long term [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the price is expected to be weak after the holiday. It is recommended to short on the rebound [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the post - holiday price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. - **Rubber**: The raw - material price in Thailand is strong, and the rubber price rose after the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The output continues to increase, and the price is under pressure and fluctuates in the range of 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Commodities - **Polysilicon**: There may be new progress in the supply - side contraction, and the price rose at the end of the session. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with strong support at 50,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are continuous supply - side news, and the fundamentals maintain a tight balance. The main - contract price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

Group 1 - The consumption market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed strong growth, with total domestic travel expenditure reaching 809 billion CNY, an increase of 108.19 billion CNY compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [1] - The market for digital products and automobiles experienced rapid growth during the holiday period [1] Group 2 - Precious metals maintained a strong performance during the holiday but saw a significant decline afterward, likely due to profit-taking from a rapid short-term increase [2] - Geopolitical tensions eased with the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which may have influenced market sentiment [2] - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with central banks, particularly in China, increasing their gold reserves [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the first trading day after the National Day holiday saw a positive opening for stock indices, led by the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - The financing balance decreased by 34.06 billion CNY to 2.37839 trillion CNY as of September 30 [3] - The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation to equity assets by residents and potential inflows of external capital due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 4 - The double coke market showed fluctuating trends, with inventory levels remaining stable despite a significant increase in social inventory due to the holiday [4] - The increase in inventory was primarily driven by rebar, and there are concerns about the market's acceptance of high-priced resources post-holiday [4] - Upcoming policy expectations related to "anti-involution" are anticipated to provide support for prices in the double coke market [4] Group 5 - The industrial sector for small and medium enterprises in China showed stable economic performance in the first eight months of the year, with an increase in value-added output of 7.6%, outperforming large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points [8] - The development of specialized and innovative small and medium enterprises has been particularly strong, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in value-added output [8] Group 6 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to regulate price competition and maintain a fair market price order, emphasizing the need for businesses to adhere to fair pricing principles [9]

Price Trends in Various Markets - The national production material market prices remained stable from September 22 to 28, with minor fluctuations observed in specific categories [1] - Basic chemical raw materials saw slight declines, with sulfur down 3.8%, polypropylene down 1.3%, and methanol down 0.5%, while soda ash remained stable [1] - Fertilizer prices experienced a slight decrease, with urea down 0.6%, while compound fertilizers remained stable [1] - Steel prices were generally stable, with channel steel and hot-rolled strip steel decreasing by 0.5% and 0.4% to 3639 yuan and 3574 yuan per ton respectively, while rebar increased by 0.2% to 3391 yuan per ton [1] - Wholesale prices for finished oil products remained stable, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline showing no significant changes [1] Specific Material Price Changes - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with both natural and synthetic rubber rising by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices showed a mixed trend, with thermal coal remaining stable at 759 yuan per ton, while coking coal and anthracite increased by 2.1% and 0.5% to 1021 yuan and 1142 yuan per ton respectively [2] Non-Ferrous Metal Price Movements - Non-ferrous metal prices were predominantly on the rise, with copper increasing by 1.7%, while zinc and aluminum saw slight declines of 0.6% and 0.1% respectively [3]

Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market prices increased by 0.6% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.79 yuan per kilogram, rising by 2.4%, with specific increases in lettuce (9.7%), cauliflower (7.4%), and bitter melon (6.1%) [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, banana, and pear rising by 4.7%, 1.4%, and 0.9% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices slightly increased, with eggs and broiler chickens rising by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable with slight increases in rice (0.2%), peanut oil (0.1%), and rapeseed oil (0.1%) [1] - The wholesale prices of aquatic products remained stable, with increases in large hairtail (1.1%) and large yellow croaker (0.8%), while crucian carp remained stable [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork at 19.54 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 1.4%, while lamb and beef increased by 1.0% and 0.7% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Basic chemical raw material prices saw a slight decline, with sulfuric acid, polypropylene, and methanol decreasing by 3.8%, 1.3%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices slightly decreased, with urea down by 0.6%, while compound fertilizers remained stable [2] - Steel prices remained stable, with slight decreases in channel steel and hot-rolled strip steel by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while rebar increased by 0.2% [2] - Refined oil wholesale prices remained stable across various types [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with both natural and synthetic rubber rising by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices showed slight increases, with thermal coal remaining stable, while coking coal and anthracite increased by 2.1% and 0.5% respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices were predominantly up, with copper increasing by 1.7%, while zinc and aluminum decreased by 0.6% and 0.1% respectively [2]

Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The overall price index of Linyi Mall remains stable at 102.24 points this week, with mixed trends across various categories of goods [1] Price Index Summary - **Building and Decoration Materials**: The price index for this category increased to 105.36 points, up by 0.10 points week-on-week, driven by rising demand in construction and home decoration projects [1] - **Steel**: The steel price index rose to 95.16 points, up by 0.07 points, with the largest increases seen in construction steel, although overall demand remains weak [2] - **Grain, Oil, and Food**: This category's price index increased to 95.23 points, up by 0.01 points, with notable price rises in dried fruits and seasonings due to increased demand ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [3] - **Lumber**: The lumber price index decreased to 97.45 points, down by 0.07 points, affected by weak demand in the real estate market, leading to lower prices for various types of boards [4] - **Agricultural Inputs**: The agricultural inputs price index fell to 87.07 points, down by 0.05 points, with prices for agricultural films declining while some other categories saw slight increases [5] - **Clothing and Accessories**: The price index for clothing and accessories decreased to 103.99 points, down by 0.03 points, with a general downward trend in prices, although children's clothing sales showed some improvement [6]