1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference has recovered, with the dollar index oscillating at a high level, gold struggling to break through and rise, and the stock market remaining bullish in the absence of significant macro - level negative factors. Different commodities show various trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and policy impacts [1][2][3] - In the commodity market, some products like palm oil, coal, and iron ore have their own price trends influenced by supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy expectations. For example, palm oil prices may be affected by Indonesian supply and biodiesel plans; coal prices are supported by seasonal demand but face pressure later; iron ore prices are expected to remain high but with limited upside [27][31][35] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about Japan - US trade negotiations and has sent positive signals regarding China - US negotiations, causing gold to remain in an oscillatory range. The possibility of dismissing Powell is low, and inflation expectations have decreased [12][13][14] - Investment advice: Gold prices will remain range - bound in the short term [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The Japanese ruling coalition has lost its majority in the Senate, and the US Treasury Secretary has advised Trump not to dismiss Powell. The dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16][18] - Investment advice: The dollar will oscillate at a high level in the short term [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Four departments are standardizing the new energy vehicle industry's competition order. The stock market is enthusiastic, and in the absence of more macro - level negatives, it is more likely to rise than fall [21] - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank is soliciting opinions on canceling the freeze on bond repurchase collateral, and short - term bond yields have declined rapidly. There may be opportunities to go long around the Politburo meeting, but attention should be paid to trade - related risks in August [23][25] - Investment advice: Sell positions at previous highs and continue to go long on dips [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of July 12 - 18, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons, and the expected volume for July 19 - 25 is 2.2351 million tons. The rise in palm oil prices is due to supply shortages in Indonesia and speculation on biodiesel [26][27] - Investment advice: Observe or go long on dips [29] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 18, the import market for steam coal was quiet. Due to seasonal demand, coal prices are expected to remain high, but attention should be paid to pressure after August [30][31][32] - Investment advice: Coal prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with attention to post - August pressure [33] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production and sales in Q2 2025 increased. Iron ore prices are following the upward trend of industrial products, and the market's long - term pessimism has improved, but the upside is limited [34][35] - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain high, with the disk mainly compressing profits [36] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In June 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn and 30,000 tons of cotton. US cotton export data is sluggish, and ICE cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [37][38][40] - Investment advice: Be cautious when chasing the rise of Zhengzhou cotton [40] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly. US soybean prices are rising due to strong demand, and the basis of soybean meal remains weak [41][42] - Investment advice: The futures price will oscillate strongly, and the basis of soybean meal will remain weak [43] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar. A large amount of imported sugar will arrive in July - August, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate [46][47] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate, with attention to the resistance level of 5900 [47] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Canada is strengthening steel import restrictions. The inventory of steel products continues to decline slightly, and steel prices are expected to remain strong in the short term but face risks in August [48][50][51] - Investment advice: Steel prices will oscillate strongly in the short term, and traders are advised to hedge on rebounds [51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Starch factory inventory pressure is increasing, and the开机 rate is expected to remain low [52] - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the开机 rate will remain low [52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the July 18 imported corn auction was 18%. Corn prices in North China have rebounded, and the basis has weakened [53] - Investment advice: Hold short positions on new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [53] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - China's alumina production in June 2025 was 7.749 million tons. The news of eliminating backward production capacity in the non - ferrous industry may boost the futures price [54][55] - Investment advice: Observe [56] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's unforged copper exports in June 2025 increased. The global copper inventory is rising, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [57][59] - Investment advice: Change the short - selling strategy to observation; continue to observe for arbitrage [59] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Some companies have issued statements against false information. The price of polysilicon has increased, but the supply is expected to rise. The price of silicon wafers has also increased, but it is lower than the benchmark [60][62] - Investment advice: Going long on dips may be more secure [63] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some silicon enterprises have temporarily shut down. The supply recovery is slower than expected, and industrial silicon is expected to be strong in the short term [64][65] - Investment advice: Take a long - biased view in the short term and observe the resumption of production by large factories [66] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ghana is re - evaluating a lithium project. The expiration of mining licenses in Jiangxi may cause supply concerns [67][68] - Investment advice: Take profit on long positions and forward spreads; consider reverse spreads [68] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote structural adjustment in key industries. The supply of lead is tightening, and demand is improving [69][70][71] - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to go long on dips; observe for arbitrage [71] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Peru's zinc concentrate production in May 2025 increased. The upward trend of zinc has been established, and short - selling should be avoided in the short term [72][74] - Investment advice: Observe unilaterally; consider near - month positive spreads for arbitrage; observe for internal - external trading [75] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. supplies high - nickel materials for solid - state batteries. The anti - involution policy has boosted the non - ferrous sector, and nickel prices may follow the upward trend [76][78] - Investment advice: Observe or take small long positions in the short term; consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [79] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. Investment funds have reduced their net long positions, and the carbon price may be affected by weather and renewable energy [80] - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate in the short term [81] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the oil price cap. Oil prices are oscillating narrowly, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - long term [82][83] - Investment advice: Oil prices will remain oscillatory [84] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The Asian styrene market is quiet. The styrene basis and spread have declined, and the port inventory may increase. Pure benzene may see more buying from macro funds [84][85] - Investment advice: Observe styrene unilaterally; consider long - term allocation of pure benzene after a better risk - return ratio [85] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has remained stable, with increased supply and moderate demand. The basis - collection of caustic soda is completed, and further price increases are difficult [86][87] - Investment advice: It is difficult for caustic soda to rise further [87] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has trended higher, but high - price transactions are weak. The pulp price has risen due to policy and coal price rebounds, but the upside is limited [88][89] - Investment advice: The upward space of pulp is limited [89] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has been narrowly adjusted, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. PVC has rebounded with the market, but the subsequent market may be limited [90][91] - Investment advice: The subsequent PVC market may have limited upside [91] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in South China has been weakly stable. The supply is high, and the demand is stable. In the medium term, it is advisable to short on rallies [92] - Investment advice: Short soda ash on rallies in the medium term [92] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has been stable. The glass market is volatile, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to use a long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [93][94] - Investment advice: The main contract may fluctuate between 900 - 1100 yuan/ton; use the long - glass short - soda - ash strategy [94] 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Typhoons have caused South China ports to suspend operations. The container freight rate index has fluctuated. The 08 - 10 spread has widened, and there may be short - selling opportunities for the 10 - contract [95][97] - Investment advice: Consider short - selling the 10 - contract on rallies or when the spot inflection point is confirmed [97]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the elastic space [2][4] - Stainless Steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to lithium mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are in the process of destocking, and the futures market is relatively resilient [2][12] - Polysilicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and the futures market has an upward driving force [2][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,500 yuan, the stainless - steel main contract was 12,725 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 94,302 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 162,130 lots. Other data such as import nickel prices, spreads, and production costs also showed corresponding changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; Some nickel smelters and cold - rolling mills in Indonesia had production adjustments; The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period; The approved production target in 2025 was higher than that in 2024; Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,960 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,206,323 lots and a position of 377,305 lots. Other data such as spot prices, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; There were intensive policy deployments in the new - energy vehicle industry; A Zimbabwean state - owned mining enterprise planned to build a lithium - concentrate beneficiation plant [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 was 8,695 yuan/ton, and that of PS2509 was 43,850 yuan/ton. There were also data on trading volume, position, spreads, spot prices, profits, and inventories [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Two component tenders were postponed or terminated [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (relatively strong) [15]

Group 1 - Shareholder Xinhui Investment of Boqian New Materials plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.616 million shares, representing no more than 1% of the company's total share capital, through block trading within three months after the announcement [1] - The reduction may raise concerns about shareholder confidence in the company, potentially putting short-term pressure on the stock price, but the small percentage and extended time frame suggest limited long-term impact [1] - The company needs to stabilize investor expectations through subsequent performance [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the silicon industry chain has seen market prices persistently below production costs, leading to widespread losses among production enterprises [2] - The overall operating rate of the top five polysilicon companies was 42.2%, with the lowest operating load at only 24.1% [2] - Through production cuts and load reductions, the polysilicon market has nearly reached a balance between supply and demand, which may help eliminate outdated capacity and enhance industry concentration in the long run, despite ongoing short-term profitability pressures [2] Group 3 - Baichuan Co., Ltd. announced that its actual controller and chairman, Zheng Tiejiang, has returned to work and is able to fulfill his duties normally [3] - Zheng Tiejiang, who holds 14.19% of the company's shares, was previously under investigation, raising market concerns [3] - The resolution of this issue may enhance the stability of the company's governance structure and boost investor confidence, although the long-term impact on the company's development remains to be seen [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but the real - world situation limits the upside potential. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and real - world supply - demand [4][5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry is in a de - stocking phase, and the resumption of production at upstream factories is a key factor to watch. For polysilicon, it is a policy - driven market, and it may be safer to go long on dips [30][34][35]. - Lithium carbonate: Driven by the "Anti - Involution 1.0 + Lithium Mine 2.0" policies, the price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the approval of mining licenses in August [63][66]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - **Nickel**: Macro and news improve market sentiment, but the real - world fundamentals limit the price elasticity. The support from the nickel ore end is weakening, and the supply expectations from the smelting end restrict the upside [4]. - **Stainless steel**: Macro - expectations boost the futures market, but real - world supply - demand is still a drag. The market is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Inventory Changes** - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. Nickel - iron inventory pressure is high but slightly eased, and stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [6][7]. - China's port nickel - ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9,483,600 wet tons [9]. - **Market News** - Multiple events such as potential export restrictions, project startups, factory resumptions, and production suspensions in the nickel and stainless - steel industries were reported [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose, with the futures closing at 8,695 yuan/ton on Friday. Polysilicon futures soared, closing at 43,850 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot price also increased [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Industrial silicon**: Supply - side production increased, with Southwest China having a hedging action. The overall industry inventory continued to decline, with a social inventory reduction of 4,000 tons and a factory inventory reduction of 1,000 tons. Demand from polysilicon and organic silicon provided short - term support [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply increased marginally as some factories resumed production. The upstream inventory decreased, but the terminal demand was weak, and the price increase transmission was not smooth [32][33]. - **Market Outlook** - Industrial silicon is expected to be resilient before the end of the market sentiment, and the resumption of production at upstream factories is crucial. Polysilicon is in a policy - driven market, and going long on dips may be a safer strategy [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The lithium carbonate futures contracts accelerated their upward movement. The 2509 contract closed at 69,960 yuan/ton, up 5,680 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose by 2,900 yuan/ton to 66,650 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Policy issues in Jiangxi and Qinghai regions affected the market. Lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching 19,115 tons this week, a 1.61% increase [64]. - **Demand**: The inventory accumulation of downstream cathode materials slowed down. The new - energy storage project installation scale decreased significantly in June [65]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to increase, mainly concentrated in the trading sector, while the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,364 tons to 10,239 tons [65]. - **Market Outlook** - Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously, with the futures main - contract price expected to range from 55,000 to 75,000 yuan/ton. A positive spread strategy is recommended for the inter - period trading, and selling hedging is advised [66][67][68].

Core Viewpoint - Since July, the prices of polysilicon futures and spot markets have been rising, primarily due to a meeting organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 3, signaling an upgrade in the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" efforts [1][2] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The core of the "anti-involution" initiative is to sell products at no less than the cost price, with domestic silicon material companies responding positively to the government's guidance [1][2] - Major polysilicon producers, Dongfang Hope and Jingnuo, have denied selling products below cost price, emphasizing compliance with market rules [2][3] - The current situation shows an increase in polysilicon production while the capacity for downstream battery cells and modules is declining [1][3] Group 2: Price Trends - The average transaction price of polysilicon increased from 34,700 yuan/ton to 41,700 yuan/ton between July 2 and July 16 [4] - Despite significant price increases, transaction volumes remain low, with buyers primarily making small batch purchases [5][6] - The supply-demand dynamics shifted in July, with an expected supply of 112,000 tons and demand of 109,500 tons, reversing the previous trend of excess demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Expectations - The industry is anticipating further reform measures, including supply-side reforms such as capacity consolidation and minimum price restrictions [6] - Current market expectations suggest a minimum selling price of 40,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton based on full costs [6]

Macro Dynamics - In the first half of the year, China attracted foreign investment amounting to 423.23 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% [1] - A total of 30,014 new foreign-invested enterprises were established, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [1] - The manufacturing sector attracted 109.06 billion RMB, while the service sector attracted 305.87 billion RMB [1] - High-tech industries received 127.87 billion RMB in foreign investment, with significant growth in e-commerce services (127.1%), chemical pharmaceuticals (53%), aerospace manufacturing (36.2%), and medical equipment (17.7%) [1] - Investment from ASEAN countries increased by 8.8%, with Switzerland, Japan, the UK, Germany, and South Korea showing growth rates of 68.6%, 59.1%, 37.6%, 6.3%, and 2.7% respectively [1] Company Dynamics - Fidelity Fund Management (China) announced a change in chairmanship, with Li Shaojie taking over from Huang Xiaoyi due to personal reasons [5] - iKang Healthcare Group confirmed that it has completed an internal review and external expert evaluation, asserting no responsibility regarding a complaint about a late-stage cancer diagnosis [8] - Dongfang Hope denied allegations of selling polysilicon below cost, stating compliance with market rules and legal regulations [9] - NIO reported malicious online activities targeting the company and its employees, leading to a police report being filed against the perpetrators [10]

Core Viewpoint - The solar industry is experiencing a peak in "anti-involution" efforts, with various market discussions emerging regarding the alleged "illegal sale of polysilicon" by Dongfang Hope Group, which the company has firmly denied [1] Group 1: Company Response - Dongfang Hope Group issued a statement on July 19, addressing the rumors about illegal polysilicon sales, asserting that they have complied with national policies aimed at promoting healthy industry development [1] - The company emphasized that it has adhered to self-regulatory agreements regarding production cuts and has not engaged in selling below cost since July [1] - Dongfang Hope has taken legal steps to preserve evidence against false information and has reserved the right to pursue further legal action [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The company called on peers in the industry to collectively resist the spread of false information and unfair competition practices, highlighting the need to prevent the misinterpretation of policies and speculative trading in polysilicon futures [1]

Group 1 - The recent surge in silver prices contrasts with gold's stagnation, attributed to silver's industrial demand and its role as a shadow commodity to gold [2][3] - Other precious metals like platinum and palladium have also seen significant price increases, with platinum rising over 50% since April and palladium over 30% [2] - The macroeconomic backdrop for commodities this year includes concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation, leading to a decline in the dollar index by over 10% since the beginning of the year [3] Group 2 - The performance of gold and silver varies with economic conditions; during weaker economic phases, gold tends to outperform silver, while in stronger phases, silver benefits from increased industrial demand [3][4] - Historical data shows that during periods of rising global manufacturing PMI, the gold-silver ratio decreases, indicating silver's relative strength [4] Group 3 - In the black commodity sector, the current basis changes present trading opportunities, with significant fluctuations observed in the market [5][6] - The recent price increases in the black commodity sector are not fully reflected in the spot market, leading to discrepancies between futures and actual market conditions [5][6][7] Group 4 - The current market dynamics suggest a potential bottoming out for commodities, driven by low absolute prices and the emergence of demand, particularly from real estate and exports [16][12] - The market is experiencing a rotation of leading commodities, with polysilicon and lithium showing significant price movements [30][29] Group 5 - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a substantial increase of nearly 28% since September 2024, indicating a technical bull market [32][33] - The banking sector has been a major contributor to this rise, accounting for 24% of the index's increase, followed by the electronics and non-banking sectors [37][38]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that *ST Yazhen's stock will resume trading on July 21, 2025, after a significant price deviation and a completed investigation into its trading activities [1][2]. - The stock price of *ST Yazhen increased by a cumulative 15.87% from July 11 to July 15, 2025, which was significantly higher than the Shanghai Composite Index and the furniture manufacturing industry during the same period [1]. - Since June, *ST Yazhen has undergone three trading suspensions for investigation, with a total price increase of 82.91%, attributed to changes in the controlling shareholder and subsequent takeover offers [4]. Group 2 - The company expects to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 33 million and 39.5 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a non-recurring net profit loss estimated between 32 million and 38 million yuan [5]. - The decline in performance is primarily due to a lack of significant growth in sales revenue, a noticeable decrease in gross profit margin, and relatively high expense ratios for sales and management compared to revenue [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 3.33%, mainly driven by the rise in polysilicon. Polysilicon rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but the increase converged and prices fell on Friday. Next week, the futures prices are expected to consolidate at high levels with a downward - shifting center of gravity [5]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, the spot price increased significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Northwest Yili region remained stable, and large - scale producers showed no signs of production cuts. The production cost in the Southwest decreased, with some regions having a positive resumption of production. On the demand side, the overall demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continued to slow down [5]. - For polysilicon, on the supply side, the overall production increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some under maintenance. On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declined significantly, and downstream demand weakened marginally. The overall demand side still faces great pressure [5]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7800 - 9200. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with an oscillation range of 40000 - 45000 and a stop - loss range of 38500 - 46000 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.33% this week, driven by polysilicon. There were rumors of silicon material storage, but they were unconfirmed. Polysilicon prices rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but prices fell on Friday due to weak downstream feedback [5]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply increased, and demand from downstream industries slowed down. For polysilicon, supply increased slightly, and demand faced great pressure. If the silicon material storage rumor is disproven next week, prices are expected to fall [5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term within 40000 - 45000, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [5]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures and spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 655 yuan/ton. The production and operating rate increased, with a national output of about 78,900 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 54.33% [11][13][20]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the spot price remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, and the basis was 2150 yuan/g [15][17]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - **Raw Materials and Costs**: Industrial silicon raw material prices fell slightly, electricity prices decreased, and overall costs continued to decline during the wet season. The electricity price in the Southwest was stable at 0.3 yuan/kWh, and the silica price remained stable [23][26]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, and the overall inventory remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, a decrease of 435 lots, and the total social inventory was 553,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [28][30]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, but costs increased significantly, leading to a decline in profits. As of July 18, 2025, the weekly output was 44,900 tons, the operating rate was 71.38% (up 1.97%), the spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), the gross profit was 63 yuan/ton (down 263 yuan/ton), and the cost was 10,797 yuan/ton (up 323 yuan/ton) [33][37][44]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices fell, inventory increased significantly, and passive de - stocking continued. As of July 18, 2025, the price was 20,100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), and the inventory was 37,200 tons (up 5800 tons) [46][48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, while polysilicon prices rose, but downstream acceptance was weak. As of July 18, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.17 yuan/piece (down 0.02 yuan/piece), and the battery cell price was 0.26 yuan/watt (down 0.02 yuan/watt) [53][55]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, while the industrial silicon price increased, leading to higher production costs. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month (a 3.15% month - on - month decrease) [60][65].