Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, affected by geopolitical factors, fuel oil fluctuated at a high level in sync with crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 4,736 yuan/ton, up 19.23% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 5,584 yuan/ton, up 24.42% for the week. The market structures of both low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil have further strengthened. International crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate sharply and rise, and fuel oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and rise with the market. For high - sulfur fuel oil, short - term long positions can be taken in the range of 4,450 - 4,900, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, short - term long positions can be taken in the range of 5,350 - 6,000 [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - Geopolitical factors caused fuel oil to fluctuate at a high level with crude oil last week. The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil increased significantly. The market structures of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil strengthened. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply shortage worry intensified due to the closure of the European arbitrage window and reduced refinery processing rates. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the supply interruption worry increased because of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. It is expected that fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate and rise with the market, and specific short - term long - position operation ranges are given [5] 2. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The FU main contract price rose from 3,673 to 4,527, an increase of 854 or 23.26%. The LU main contract price rose from 4,123 to 5,245, an increase of 1,122 or 27.23% [6] - **Spot prices**: The prices of舟山 high - sulfur fuel oil,舟山 low - sulfur fuel oil,新加坡 high - sulfur fuel oil,新加坡 low - sulfur fuel oil, and中东 high - sulfur fuel oil decreased, with decreases of - 2.00%, - 7.21%, - 5.24%, - 11.06%, and - 3.97% respectively. The price of新加坡 diesel increased by 18.19% [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Consumption data**: There are charts showing the consumption of Singapore fuel oil, Chinese fuel oil, and Shandong fuel oil coking margin from 2021 - 2025 [8][9][10] 4. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from 2025 - 12 - 31 to 2026 - 03 - 11 are provided, including inventory volume and its changes. There are also charts about the Singapore fuel oil inventory seasonal chart and the Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trend [11][12][13] 5. Spread Data - There is a chart showing the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur futures [15]

Report Information - Title: Rubber: Wide - Range Fluctuation 20260316 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report Core View - The rubber market shows wide - range fluctuations, and currently, the trend strength of rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,765 yuan/ton, down 310 from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 240. The trading volume was 340,904 lots, a decrease of 80,920. The open interest of the 05 contract was 140,305 lots, a decrease of 1,651. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 300 tons to 120,840 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 3,257 lots to 27,149 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" increased by 10 to - 165, and the "mixed - futures main contract" increased by 80 to - 1,215. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 remained unchanged at 95 [2] - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quote remained at 2,530 dollars/ton. The quotes of STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 30 dollars/ton to 2,050, 2,040, and 1,950 dollars/ton respectively. The prices of substitute products, Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene, increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,100 and 15,500 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai mixed and Thai standard, decreased by 10 dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 10 - 15 dollars/ton [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 68.04 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 million tons, an increase of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory increased by 1.27% to 11.96 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.18% to 56.09 million tons. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 138 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26 million tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber decreased by 0.5% to 93.3 million tons, and the total social inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.4% to 44.7 million tons [3][4] - Currently, the supply of tire enterprises is relatively stable. Driven by price - increase expectations, the domestic sales of all - steel tire enterprises are active, and the inventory - reduction rhythm has accelerated. The domestic and foreign sales of semi - steel tire enterprises are relatively stable, the overall sales performance is average, and the finished - product inventory - reduction speed shows differences [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 3120 and 3180. The US soybeans are experiencing a short - term upward trend, influenced by the escalation of the Middle East situation and weekend technical fluctuations. The domestic soybean meal has entered a short - term, slightly bullish oscillatory pattern, affected by the US soybean trend and the short - term restriction of imported soybeans due to the intensification of the Middle East conflict [9]. - The soybean A2605 is expected to oscillate between 4900 and 5000. The US soybeans are in a short - term upward trend, and the domestic soybeans are rising. The escalation of the Middle East conflict has led to a decrease in the expected arrival of imported soybeans, and the short - term good demand supports the market. However, there is still uncertainty in the subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations, and the market will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 is in the 3120 - 3180 range, and the soybean A2605 is in the 4900 - 5000 range. The US soybeans are in a short - term upward trend, and the domestic soybean meal and soybeans have different trends affected by various factors such as the Middle East situation and Sino - US trade [9][11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in the quantity of US soybeans purchased by China and the US soybean weather. The US soybean market is in a short - term upward trend, waiting for further guidance on the South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrival, and subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and the soybean meal has returned to range oscillation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation for pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal. The influence of US soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal intersect [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the influence of the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal is in a short - term, slightly bullish oscillation, waiting for further clarity on the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and further guidance on subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Transaction Data**: The trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from March 5th to March 13th shows different trends in transaction prices and volumes, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuates [16]. - **Price Data**: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from March 6th to March 13th show different trends, and the spot prices of soybean meal are relatively strong, with the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level [18]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The warehouse receipt data of soybeans and soybean meal from March 4th to March 13th shows changes in the quantity of warehouse receipts [20]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. - **Sowing and Growth Progress**: The sowing and growth progress data of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 shows the progress of soybean sowing, growth, and harvest in different regions and time periods [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from July 2025 to February 2026 show the changes in planting area, yield, output, and other data of US soybeans [44]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions of soybean meal M2605 have increased, and funds have flowed in, showing a bearish signal [9]. - The main short positions of soybean A2605 have decreased, and funds have flowed in, showing a bearish signal [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US - Iran conflict, global risk preferences are disturbed, oil prices are rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are weakening. It is advisable to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs to be observed, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - Gold prices are in a sideways consolidation. The Fed may be cautious about the interest - rate cut rhythm, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8]. - Due to the Middle East conflict, copper prices may maintain a volatile operation; aluminum prices are expected to be relatively strong; zinc prices may break downward; lead prices may decline further; nickel prices will likely fluctuate; tin prices will probably have a high - level wide - range oscillation; lithium carbonate prices will oscillate widely; alumina prices suggest a wait - and - see strategy; stainless steel prices will maintain a volatile pattern; and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be relatively strong [11][13][16][17][18][20][22][25][26][28]. - Steel prices will likely maintain a weak and volatile operation; iron ore prices will oscillate widely; coking coal and coke prices may have a short - term upward pulse; glass prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation; soda ash prices will continue a relatively strong oscillation; manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices may have short - term rebound opportunities; industrial silicon prices will oscillate under cost support; and polysilicon prices will be under pressure and oscillate [30][33][36][40][41][44][47][49]. - Rubber trading should be flexible and short - term; for crude oil, a short - position strategic allocation is recommended; methanol should be taken profit at high prices; urea should be short - sold; pure benzene and styrene suggest an empty - position wait - and - see; PVC and ethylene glycol may rebound but need to pay attention to risks; PTA processing fees are difficult to rise; PX valuations are expected to rise; polyethylene can be short - sold at high prices; and polypropylene's short - term is dominated by geopolitical conflicts and the long - term by production mismatch [56][58][61][63][65][67][69][72][74][76][79]. - Pig prices may remain weakly stable; egg prices may rise slightly; soybean meal prices suggest short - term wait - and - see; oil prices are bullish in the medium term; sugar prices may have a rebound space; and cotton prices suggest buying on dips [82][85][87][90][92][95]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: Trump won't reach a cease - fire agreement with Iran for now; China's "15th Five - Year Plan" sets energy production targets; domestic AI glasses' global share will reach 45% this year; Tesla's Terafab project will start in seven days, and Meta plans to cut 20% or more of its staff [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are weakening, and it is advisable to pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, Treasury bond futures had different changes. The US launched investigations on multiple trade partners, and China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations. The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs to be observed, and the bond market may be pressured by inflation. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The US PCE data shows inflation trends, and the US calls on countries to send warships to the Middle East [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold prices are in a sideways consolidation. The Fed's cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts suppresses precious metal prices in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the Middle East conflict, copper prices adjusted. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot premium was stable [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East conflict continues, and copper prices may maintain a volatile operation [11]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices回调 due to economic concerns. Inventory and processing fees changed [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle East conflict threatens overseas supply, and domestic demand recovers. Aluminum prices are expected to be relatively strong [13]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fell, and inventory and basis changed [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is weak, and zinc prices may break downward [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices may decline further due to insufficient domestic demand and concentrated short positions [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell, and spot premiums, ore prices, and nickel - iron prices changed [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, nickel prices are supported by policies. In the short term, they will likely fluctuate. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [18][19]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Supply is in a post - holiday recovery but limited, and demand is weakly recovering [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin supply is tight, and demand is weakly recovering. Tin prices will probably have a high - level wide - range oscillation [20]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices fell, and inventory and ore prices changed [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic production recovers, and demand is good. Lithium carbonate prices will oscillate widely [22]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose, and inventory and basis changed [23][24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price may rise, and the supply of alumina is tightening in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and consider short - selling at high prices [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell, and inventory and basis changed [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure appears, demand is moderately released, and costs support prices. Stainless steel prices will maintain a volatile pattern [26]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices fell, and inventory and basis changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Costs are strong, demand recovers, and prices are expected to be relatively strong [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose, and inventory and basis changed [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices will likely maintain a weak and volatile operation, and the focus is on inventory digestion and demand verification [30]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose, and inventory and basis changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore supply is fluctuating, and prices will oscillate widely. Pay attention to negotiations and geopolitical situations [33]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices rose, and inventory and basis changed [34][35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Coking coal prices are affected by the Middle East conflict, and short - term prices may have an upward pulse. Long - term is optimistic [36][38]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices rose slightly, and inventory and basis changed [39][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and soda ash prices will continue a relatively strong oscillation [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, look for short - term rebound opportunities. In the long term, pay attention to cost and supply - side factors [44][45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate under cost support, and polysilicon prices will be under pressure and oscillate [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The market trades the expectation of refinery shutdown, and there may be a second - wave market. Tire enterprise开工 rates changed, and inventory increased [51][54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly in the short term and consider hedging [56]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - position strategic allocation and consider relevant spread operations [58]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and MTO profit changed [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit at high prices [61]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and basis changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - sell at high prices [63]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose, and basis and other indicators changed [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest an empty - position wait - and - see [65]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and cost, inventory, and basis changed [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PVC prices may rebound but need to pay attention to risks [67]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ethylene glycol prices may rebound but need to pay attention to risks [69]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory changed [70][71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA processing fees are difficult to rise, and prices may rise but need to pay attention to risks [72]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory changed [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX valuations are expected to rise but need to pay attention to risks [74]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory changed [75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - sell at high prices [76][77]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory changed [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and long - term by production mismatch [79]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated slightly, and supply is abundant [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Hog prices may remain weakly stable, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for the near - term and wait and see for the far - term [82]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices rose slightly, and supply is sufficient [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices may rise slightly, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for the near - term and pay attention to cost support for the far - term [85]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean import and production data changed [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [87]. 3.5.4 Oils - **Market Information**: Palm oil production, export, and inventory data changed [88][89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Oils are bullish in the medium term [90]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: Global and domestic sugar production and supply data changed [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may have a rebound space, and it is recommended to buy on dips [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton production, export, and inventory data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to buy on dips [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Nickel 2605, it will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamental situation is bearish, with increasing production in March, rising domestic inventories, sufficient market supply, and weak demand in the stainless - steel and new - energy vehicle sectors. However, the basis is bullish, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2605, it will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamental situation is neutral, with stable spot prices, strong cost support, slightly decreasing inventories, and weak demand. The basis is bullish, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On March 13, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 136,930, down 190 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 17,320, down 445; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 14,190, down 25. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 141,350, up 400; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 144,750, up 400; 1 imported nickel was 137,950, up 500; nickel beans were 140,550, up 500. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 284,658, down 1,026; nickel warehouse receipts were 56,462, up 2,558; the total inventory was 341,120, up 1,532 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 51,180, down 58 [17][18]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On March 13, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 1,095.74 yuan per nickel point, up 3.22; the low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,675 yuan per ton, down 25 [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 14,258, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,307, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 18,081 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 136,328 yuan per ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The overall coking coal price is gradually stabilizing. Although the coking enterprises' restocking enthusiasm is low and the molten iron production has declined, the relaxation of environmental protection policies after the Two Sessions improves the steel mills' production expectations, providing some support for coking coal prices. It is expected that the coking coal price will be weakly stable in the short term [3][4]. - **For Coke**: The coke supply is increasing steadily, and the steel mills that were previously under production restrictions have the expectation of resuming production, which may increase the demand for coke. However, the overall steel demand is weak, and the steel mills are still cautious about coke procurement. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Mainstream large mines are operating normally. The market sentiment has improved, the decline in coking coal prices has narrowed, and the overall price is gradually stabilizing [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1210, and the basis is 32, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1971 tons, a decrease of 243 tons compared to last week [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, and the long position is increasing [4]. - **Expectation**: The coking enterprises' restocking enthusiasm is low, and the molten iron production has declined, which suppresses the coal price. However, after the Two Sessions, the steel mills' production expectations have improved, providing some support for coking coal prices. It is expected that the coking coal price will be weakly stable in the short term [3]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the meeting, the coking enterprises that were previously under production restrictions have gradually resumed production, and the supply is increasing steadily. The steel mills that were previously under production restrictions have the expectation of resuming production, which may increase the demand for coke. However, the overall steel demand is weak, and the steel mills are still cautious about coke procurement [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1620, and the basis is - 117.5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 944 tons, a decrease of 3 tons compared to last week [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position is decreasing [7]. - **Expectation**: The market demand is still gradually recovering, and the steel mills' raw material inventory has not been fully consumed. The steel mills' enthusiasm for coke procurement is not high, and they still have the intention to lower the price. The supply - demand contradiction in the coke market still exists. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [7]. 3.2 Price - **Coking Coal Price**: The report provides the import coking coal spot price quotes from different origins and ports on March 13, 2026, including the prices of various types of coking coal such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal [10]. - **Coke Price**: The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on March 13, 2026, including the prices of different grades of metallurgical coke at different ports [11]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, remaining the same as last week; the coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons compared to last week [21]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: The independent coking enterprise's coking coal inventory is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons compared to last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The steel mill's coking coal inventory is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons compared to last week [30]. 3.4 Other Indicators - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: No specific data provided [34]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: No specific data provided [38]. - **Daily Coke Output**: No specific data provided [41]. - **Monthly Coke Output**: No specific data provided [44]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: No specific data provided [46]. - **Molten Iron Production**: No specific data provided [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2604 will be oscillating and weakening. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillating and falling, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with more long - position increases. Technically, the price closed below the moving - average system, losing short - term support. Short - term indicators like KDJ are in a weak area, and the trend indicator shows that the long - position power is rising while the short - position power is falling, with the two forces in a stalemate [2][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons, indicating a positive outlook [2]. - The basis is - 50 with the spot price at 24,090, showing a neutral situation [2]. - On March 13, LME zinc inventory decreased by 850 tons to 97,900 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 398 tons to 86,093 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The main positions are net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is positive [2]. Futures Market - On March 13, the trading volume of zinc futures was 135,984 lots, and the trading value was 1.64806944 billion yuan. The total open interest was 183,422 lots, an increase of 7,280 lots [3]. Spot Market - On March 13, the price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 24,040 - 24,140 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 24,020 - 24,120 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 24,070 - 24,170 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 24,090 - 24,190 yuan/ton, all down 230 yuan/ton [4]. - The price of zinc concentrate with 50% grade in various regions on March 13 was around 20,610 - 20,710 yuan/ton, all down 190 yuan/ton [10]. - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters on March 13 was between 23,790 - 24,790 yuan/ton, all down 230 yuan/ton [13]. Inventory Situation - From March 2 to March 12, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 211,900 tons to 231,100 tons [5]. - On March 13, the total SHFE zinc warrants were 86,093 tons, an increase of 398 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 97,900 tons, a decrease of 850 tons [2][6][8]. Production Situation - In February 2026, the actual output of refined zinc in China was 470,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The planned output for March is 490,200 tons [15]. Processing Fee - On March 13, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade was generally between 1,400 - 1,700 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 30 US dollars/dry ton [17]. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On March 13, the total trading volume of SHFE zinc futures members was 134,852 lots, a decrease of 33,441 lots. The total long - position volume was 51,656 lots, an increase of 662 lots, and the total short - position volume was 51,871 lots, an increase of 1,772 lots [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oil prices is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,860, with a basis of 170, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,600 - 8,900 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the subsequent supply pressure decreases. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,700, with a basis of 68, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the subsequent supply pressure decreases. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,300, with a basis of 479, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil production season is approaching [5] - Bearish factors: The oil prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current gold price is in a sideways consolidation trend. The soaring oil price in the context of the US - Iran war has pushed up market inflation expectations and made the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. The US GDP in Q4 2025 only grew by 0.7%, and the PCE and core PCE data in January 2026 were 2.8% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target. In the current context of rising energy prices, it may increase the upward pressure on prices, making the Fed cautious about the pace of interest rate cuts. It is difficult to see rapid easing policy signals in the short term, which will suppress precious metal prices. In the short term, the price may still be in a volatile range. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1050 - 1200 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 20000 - 22000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 1.31% to 1126.64 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 20682.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.82% to 5020.00 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 1.82% to 79.86 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.28%, and the US dollar index was 100.45 [2] - In January 2026, the US PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year, slightly down from 2.9% in December, and increased 0.3% month - on - month. The overall inflation continued the downward trend; the core PCE rose to 3.1% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target [2] - The US called on many countries to send warships to the Middle East, and countries such as South Korea, Japan, and France have responded. The US government may announce the organization of a multi - national joint escort in the Strait of Hormuz as soon as this week. The Israeli military spokesman said that military operations against Iran will last at least three more weeks, and there are still thousands of targets to be attacked [2] 3.2 Gold and Silver Data Summary - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 5023.10 US dollars/ounce (down 1.20% from the previous day), the trading volume was 15.53 million lots (up 8.38%), the open interest was 41.40 million lots (up 1.02%), and the inventory was 1012 tons (down 0.32%) [5] - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 5044.60 US dollars/ounce (down 1.67%), the closing price of the active contract in yuan/gram was 1133.00 (down 1.32%), the trading volume was 29.04 million lots (up 16.09%) [5] - **SHFE Gold**: The open interest was 31.30 million lots (up 1.02%), the inventory was 105.42 tons (unchanged), the precipitation funds were 56.744 billion yuan (outflow of 0.31%), the closing price of AuT + D was 1131.25 (down 1.31%), the trading volume was 52.27 tons (up 54.34%), and the open interest was 238.27 tons (up 0.34%) [5] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 80.65 US dollars/ounce (down 3.94%), the open interest was 11.55 million lots (up 1.88%), and the inventory was 10629 tons (down 0.76%) [5] - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 83.70 US dollars/ounce (down 3.83%), the closing price of the active contract in yuan/kilogram was 20923.00 (down 5.16%), the trading volume was 90.78 million lots (up 27.54%) [5] - **SHFE Silver**: The open interest was 48.29 million lots (down 1.11%), the inventory was 326.57 tons (up 5.35%), the precipitation funds were 27.279 billion yuan (down 6.22%), the closing price of AgT + D was 20887.00 (outflow of 4.41%), the trading volume was 226.13 tons (down 45.61%), and the open interest was 2886.17 tons (up 0.53%) [5] 3.3 ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: SPDR US: The closing price was 460.84 US dollars (down 1.29%), the holding volume was 1071.56 tons (down 0.40%), the precipitation funds were 17.377 billion US dollars (down 2.06%), and the trading volume was 11.6313 million shares (down 2.26%); iShare US: The holding volume was 487.14 tons (down 1.40%); GBS UK, PHAU UK, and GOLD UK had unchanged holdings; SGBS Switzerland: The holding volume was 35.17 tons (down 0.07%) [65] - **Silver ETFs**: SLV US: The closing price was 72.69 US dollars (down 4.96%), the holding volume was 15460.18 tons (down 0.51%), the precipitation funds were 4.1593 billion US dollars (down 4.32%), and the trading volume was 44.6836 million shares (up 50.14%); ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada had unchanged holdings [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the A-share market showed resilience in the game between external geopolitical shocks and internal policy support, presenting a volatile and differentiated pattern. The ChiNext Index led the rise by 2.5%, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.7%, with significant market structural characteristics. The core driving factors of the market include external factors such as the repeated situation in the Middle East, which suppresses risk appetite and causes large fluctuations in stock indices in countries like Japan and South Korea. The continuous conflict has led to the international oil price exceeding $100 per barrel, and the market's re - inflation concerns suppress the prospects of monetary policy interest rate cuts. Internally, in the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", policies focus on new - quality productivity, and technology - growth sectors such as AI computing power, semiconductors, and biomedicine are supported by both policies and industrial trends. The inflation in February moderately rebounded, and exports in the first two months greatly exceeded expectations, strengthening the narrative of global re - industrialization and the dominance of resources. Overall, the market rapidly rotates between defensive and growth sectors [1]. - In the later stage, the conflict between the US and Iran may continue to be the most important marginal variable in March. Currently, the passage of the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be blocked, leading to high oil prices. If inflation expectations continue to lead to stagflation expectations, the market still needs to consolidate. The results of the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week should be focused on. It is expected that the market will continue the volatile consolidation pattern, and the structural characteristics may continue. On the one hand, the cyclical resource sectors may continue to benefit from the strong oil price pattern. On the other hand, the demand for resources from AI development and its substitution effect on some industries resonate, and the market prefers the HALO trading strategy of heavy - asset and low - elimination. Due to the domestic policy remaining in a loose tone, the expectation of market stability still exists, laying the foundation for the "slow - bull" pattern of the A - share market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Stock Market Performance**: Last week, most global stock indices fell. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.99%, the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.26%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.23%, Germany's DAX fell 0.61%, and France's CAC 40 fell 1.03%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 3.24%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.13%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7%, while the ChiNext Index rose 2.5% [1][10]. - **Sector Performance**: Coal, power equipment, and building decoration sectors led the gains, while national defense and military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, and comprehensive sectors led the losses [1]. - **Driving Factors**: Externally, the repeated Middle East situation suppresses risk appetite, and the high oil price due to the conflict leads to re - inflation concerns and suppresses the prospects of interest rate cuts. Internally, policies focus on new - quality productivity, and economic data such as inflation and exports support the narrative of global re - industrialization and resource dominance [1]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 93 points/70 points, 74 points/44 points, 205 points/246 points, and 246 points/205 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt the idea of buying on dips or trading within a range. The core operating range of the IF2603 main contract is between 4542 and 4751 points; the IH2603 main contract is between 2883 and 3016 points; the IC2603 main contract is between 7885 and 8501 points; the IM2603 main contract is between 7900 and 8514 points [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: It is expected that the switch between value and growth will be relatively frequent [5]. 3.3 Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Most global stock indices fell last week. The US, European, and Asia - Pacific stock markets all showed different degrees of decline, with only the Russian RTS remaining unchanged [10]. - **A - share Index Performance**: The ChiNext Index led the rise, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. Different A - share indices showed different trends [12]. - **Industry Performance in A - share Indices**: In the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, different industries showed mixed rises and falls [13]. 3.4 Stock Index Futures Market Review - **Futures Contract Performance**: The IC main contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both increased [17]. - **Basis and Cross - variety Ratio**: The basis (futures - spot) of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio showed certain trends [17][18]. 3.5 Index Valuation Tracking - As of March 6, the price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.19 times, the CSI 300 Index was 14.23 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.59 times, the CSI 500 Index was 38.02 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 50.88 times [18][21]. 3.6 Market Capital Flow Review - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance in the two markets and the proportion of margin trading balance to the A - share floating market value showed certain trends [21]. - **Newly Established Equity - Oriented Funds**: The share of newly established equity - oriented funds showed a certain change [21]. - **Funding Rate and Central Bank Operations**: The funding rate once declined last week, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [22].