Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating was provided in the content [1][21][35] Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides trading strategies based on market data, industry news, and logical analysis [4][23][37] Section Summaries Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 78,100 yuan with a 0.31% increase, and the Shanghai Copper index increased its position by 3,097 lots to 531,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: Ivanhoe Mining suspended the operation of its Kakula underground mine due to earthquake activity [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The mid - year negotiation between Antofagasta and smelters is approaching, and the copper concentrate processing fee is under pressure. The import of recycled copper may increase, but the long - term supply is still tight. The market may show a back structure in the medium term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to temporarily observe for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [5][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose by 98 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.11%. Spot prices in various regions also increased [9] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Axis mining area had its mining license revoked, and the transition authorities designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas [10][11] - **Logic Analysis**: The Guinea event may reduce the annual surplus of bauxite supply and support the bauxite price. Short - term attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the alumina price will be strongly volatile in the short term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 20,125 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions also changed [18] - **Related Information**: There were news about Sino - US trade, real - estate data, bank interest rates, and Fed officials' statements. Aluminum inventory decreased [19][20] - **Trading Logic**: Fed officials hinted at no interest rate cut before September, and domestic banks lowered deposit rates. Aluminum consumption maintained an upward trend, and low inventory supported the price difference [23] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate. Consider the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 06 - 09 contract and temporarily observe for options [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 rose by 0.83% to 22,410 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders, and the spot premium declined slightly [26] - **Related Information**: The Hong Kong Exchange plans to add three storage facilities in Hong Kong, and the zinc ore tender price in North China increased [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters resumed production, downstream orders did not improve, and short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, short positions can be lightly tested at high prices. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2506 rose by 0.45% to 16,900 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand, and regional trading was acceptable [30] - **Related Information**: Some recycled lead smelters reduced the purchase price of waste batteries and planned to stop production [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss state, and the short - term resumption of production willingness is not strong. The demand off - season restricts the upward space of lead prices [32] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 60 to 123,280 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [34] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, nickel ore imports increased seasonally, and the export of ternary precursors decreased [36] - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, nickel ore prices supported the nickel price, but the supply surplus is expected to expand after May [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to weaken. Consider the double - selling strategy for options and temporarily observe for arbitrage [38] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose by 30 to 12,870 yuan/ton. Spot prices were given [39] - **Important Information**: The European stainless steel market is facing challenges, and prices are falling [40] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, steel mills' production decreased, demand was mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage [43][44] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 267,730 yuan/ton, with a 1.11% increase. Spot trading was limited [46] - **Related Information**: There was news about the US missile defense system, but it had little impact on the tin market [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices are in a high - level shock. African tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand situation is expected to ease [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to adjust in the short term. Temporarily observe for options [49][50] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures weakened, and spot prices were generally lowered [52] - **Related Information**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported industrial silicon from multiple countries [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weak, supply will increase, and high inventory suppresses prices [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [54] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures strengthened, and spot prices were given [55] - **Related Information**: The US electricity consumption is expected to reach a record high, and solar power installation capacity is expected to remain stable [56] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, production decreased, inventory decreased, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [57][58] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [59] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and spot prices decreased [60] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, lithium carbonate imports increased significantly [61] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters and mines are reducing production, but demand is not optimistic, and inventory is high [62] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [63][65][66] Second Part: Non - ferrous Industry Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals, including price, spread, inventory, and profit data, as well as multiple charts showing the historical trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [68][79][184]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown overall profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant performance differentiation among sub-sectors. The gold and copper-aluminum sectors benefited from rising metal prices, while the energy metals sector experienced a substantial profit decline [5][6] - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.73%, and a net profit of 147.13 billion yuan, up 2.61% year-on-year. The gross margin was 11.46%, up 0.34 percentage points, while the net margin decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 4.04% [11][18] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector's revenue and profit increased year-on-year, with a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan and a net profit of 147.13 billion yuan [11] - The gross margin improved to 11.46%, while the net margin slightly decreased to 4.04% [11] 2. Price Changes in 2024 and Q1 2025 - Gold prices saw significant increases, with an average price of 560.8 yuan/gram in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year, and 673.5 yuan/gram in Q1 2025, up 37.2% year-on-year [24][28] - Industrial metals generally increased in price, with copper averaging 75,000 yuan/ton in 2024, up 10.5% year-on-year, and 77,000 yuan/ton in Q1 2025, up 11.5% year-on-year [28] - Energy metals prices fell significantly due to oversupply, with lithium carbonate averaging 91,000 yuan/ton in 2024, down 65% year-on-year [24][28] 3. Sector and Sub-Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.2% in 2024 and 12.0% in Q1 2025, ranking 15th and 1st among the Shenwan sectors, respectively [29] - The gold sector saw a profit increase of 29% year-on-year in 2024, while the lithium sector experienced a profit decline of 126.9% [16][22] 4. Fund Holdings - In Q1 2025, the proportion of active funds holding non-ferrous metals stocks increased by 0.71 percentage points to 3.82% [32] - The top ten active fund holdings included companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, with a focus on gold sector companies [34]

Macro and Strategy Research - In April 2025, the industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.2% but lower than the previous value of 7.7% [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.5% and previous 5.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, which is lower than both the expected 4.2% and the previous value of 4.2% [2] - The production growth rate of nearly 80% of industries slowed down due to tariff impacts, with industrial enterprises' export delivery value growth dropping significantly by 6.8 percentage points to 0.9% [2] - The service industry production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, with modern service sectors like information technology and finance showing relatively fast growth [2] Consumption Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods slowed down in April, primarily due to a decline in automobile consumption driven by price reductions [3] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to boost furniture and home appliance consumption, while rising gold prices increased jewelry consumption [3] - Service retail sales from January to April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.4 percentage points [3] - May is expected to see an increase in retail sales growth due to holiday consumption and the continuous refinement of national policies to expand domestic demand [3] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth slightly decreased in April, with manufacturing investment dropping by 1.0 percentage points to 8.2% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 3.0 percentage points to 9.6%, with central government-led investments in electricity, heating, and water declining [4] - Real estate investment growth saw a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points to -11.3%, with sales in major cities stabilizing [4] - The central bank's further reduction of mortgage rates may not yield immediate effects, and real estate investment growth is expected to remain at a low level until urban renewal projects progress [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds seeing zero issuance and a reduction in company bonds, medium-term notes, and directed tools [6] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds showing negative net financing [6] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts, with credit bond yields showing differentiation [6] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and long-term yields are expected to enter a downward channel [6] Industry Research - The Guinea government has reclaimed 51 mining licenses, impacting the mining sector [10] - The steel industry faces short-term pressure due to increased rainfall in southern regions, affecting demand [10] - The copper market is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and export behaviors, with prices expected to fluctuate [10] - The aluminum market is supported by improved US-China trade relations, but domestic demand is entering a low season [10] - The gold market may experience fluctuations influenced by US economic data and geopolitical situations [10] - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with export behaviors impacting demand [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and positive economic environment in China amidst a turbulent international situation, advocating for a moderately loose monetary policy to support effective financing needs of the real economy [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the beauty care sector leading gains and the defense sector lagging [2][8]. - The total trading volume in the market reached 1.21 trillion yuan, with notable increases in financing balances [2][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a favorable cost-performance ratio for medium to long-term capital allocation [2][8]. Group 2: Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose to 1.665%, with a net injection of 177 billion yuan by the central bank [3][9]. - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [5][9]. - The overall economic environment is still in a transition phase, with real estate investment continuing to decline [3][9]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Copper prices saw an increase, driven by stable domestic demand and growth in power investment [3][16]. - Gold imports in China surged by 73% in April, reaching a new high for the past 11 months, indicating strong demand in the precious metals market [6]. - The aluminum market is facing potential supply issues due to geopolitical factors, while nickel prices are expected to remain stable amid tight supply conditions [19][20]. Group 4: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing a recovery in supply due to increased imports, while domestic soybean meal supply is expected to rise significantly [26]. - Corn prices are on a downward trend, influenced by high inventory levels and weak downstream demand [27]. - Cotton prices are fluctuating due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing trade negotiations, with a focus on new order developments [28]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price adjustments reflecting a return to fundamental market conditions [29].

Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting measurements of China's GDP using exchange rate and purchasing power parity (PPP), highlighting a significant discrepancy in the perceived economic size of China compared to the US [5][10][12] - According to exchange rate calculations, China's GDP is approximately $19 trillion, about 65% of the US GDP of $29 trillion, while PPP estimates China's GDP at around $38 trillion, suggesting it surpasses the US [5][10][12] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic structures and the implications of these measurements on global perceptions of China's economic strength [12][26][38] Group 2 - China's agricultural output has consistently ranked first globally over the past decade, producing nearly 100 million tons more than the US, indicating a strong foundation for its economy [14][16] - In industrial production, China dominates global supply chains, contributing over 50% of the world's steel production, around 60% of electrolytic aluminum, and close to 45% of copper [18][20][24] - The manufacturing sector in China is robust, with the country leading in automobile production, home appliances, and electronics, holding significant global market shares [20][24] Group 3 - The article points out that the statistical methods used to measure GDP may overlook significant contributions from emerging service sectors and informal economies, leading to an underestimation of China's economic output [28][30][34] - The rise of gig economy workers and small businesses, which often operate outside traditional economic measurements, contributes to a substantial but unaccounted economic value [30][34] - The undervaluation of the Chinese yuan in international markets may also distort GDP figures when converted to foreign currencies, further complicating the assessment of China's economic size [36][38] Group 4 - The future of China's economic measurement may improve with more detailed service sector statistics and the ongoing internationalization of the yuan, which could provide a more accurate reflection of its economic standing [40]

Core Viewpoint - The core driver for the formation of a bull market is the recovery of the fundamentals, which is often amplified by liquidity easing and industrial trends. A comprehensive improvement in fundamentals typically leads to a bull market, while structural improvements in fundamentals, when combined with liquidity easing and industrial trends, can also foster a bull market. The future outlook suggests a gradual and moderate recovery in fundamentals, with macro and micro liquidity resonance and industrial upgrades expected to drive market growth [4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has continued to show a fluctuating performance, with major broad-based indices experiencing a contraction in trading volume. As of last Friday (May 16, 2025), the timing indicators for major indices maintain a cautious outlook due to reduced trading volume. The ETF funds have seen a net outflow, indicating a continued profit-taking state in the market. The short-term market is showing reversal characteristics, with momentum and reversal effects switching rapidly over the past three weeks. Under the backdrop of continued liquidity easing, small-cap stocks are expected to remain dominant [5]. Group 2: Steel Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" on February 8, 2025, establishing a two-tier evaluation for steel enterprises. This aligns with the broader policy goal of the National Development and Reform Commission to better adapt supply-side changes to demand. It is anticipated that the profitability of the steel sector may recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio of steel stocks may also see a corresponding recovery [6]. Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Updates - Tungsten prices have reached a nearly 10-month high, while uranium prices have increased for the first time in six months. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has risen for three consecutive weeks, with attention on the demand situation in 2025. Lithium prices have fallen below 80,000 yuan per ton, with potential for accelerated capacity clearance. The Bisie tin mine has ceased operations, leading to an optimistic outlook for tin prices [7]. Group 4: Copper Market Overview - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, continuing to suppress copper price increases. Domestic electrolytic copper inventories have seen a low-level increase, possibly due to previous overstocking by domestic and foreign enterprises. Copper prices are expected to gradually rise with the introduction of domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [8]. Group 5: Renewable Energy Policy Developments - Shandong and Guangdong provinces have introduced implementation details for Document No. 136, which has garnered ongoing attention from the capital market regarding policy developments in more provinces. The core of the policy is to reflect electricity supply and demand through market-based pricing, thereby stabilizing the financing of renewable energy projects. The Shandong details indicate that the pricing for incremental projects will depend on current spot prices, while the Guangdong details stabilize expectations for new renewable energy installations, particularly favoring offshore wind projects [9]. Group 6: Medical Robotics Advancements - The commercialization process for exoskeleton robots in the medical rehabilitation field is expected to accelerate. These robots are primarily applied in three scenarios: spinal cord injury recovery, stroke rehabilitation, and aging assistance. The global market for exoskeleton robots is entering a period of rapid growth, and China's "14th Five-Year Plan" has included exoskeletons as a key development area for high-end medical equipment. Several regions have included certain rehabilitation exoskeletons in their insurance reimbursement scope, indicating a promising outlook for commercialization in this sector [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives individual commodity trend intensities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgment. For example, the trend intensity of gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish view; copper has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][9][13]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Each commodity has its own market situation and price trend. Generally, factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - news, and cost changes affect commodity prices. For example, the cost curve of lithium carbonate is moving down, and its trend may remain weak; copper lacks driving forces and its price is in a volatile state [2][11][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: It broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different degrees of change. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 1.65%, and the overnight decline was - 0.38% [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It oscillated and declined, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of silver futures and spot also fluctuated. For instance, the daily increase of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 1.13%, and the overnight decline was - 0.15% [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: It lacked driving forces and the price was in a volatile state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international copper futures and spot changed, and there were also news about copper mines' production and cooperation [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of aluminum futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55 compared with the previous day [14][16]. - **Alumina**: It rebounded significantly, with a trend intensity of 0. The trading volume and price of alumina futures increased, and there were changes in export data [14][16]. - **Zinc**: There was a surplus in the long - term, and the price was under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [17][18]. - **Lead**: There was a weak supply - demand situation, and it was in an oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of lead futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [20][21]. - **Tin**: It was in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in nickel ore provided a bottom - support, and the conversion economy might limit the upside valuation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [27][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space was clear, but there was a lack of substantial driving forces for upward movement, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot changed [27][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost curve continued to move down, and the trend might remain weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand declined, and the market also maintained a downward trend, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The raw materials continued to decline, and they were in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [39][41]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: They were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [42][44]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: With the decline of hot metal, they were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [46][47][50]. - **Steam Coal**: The coal - mine inventory increased, and it was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [51][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: It was in a single - sided oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][56][59]. - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of PTA futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [56][59][60]. - **MEG**: It was still strong on a single - sided basis, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of MEG futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][59][61]. - **Rubber**: It was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of rubber futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [2][63][65]. Agricultural Products - The report also briefly mentions some agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis. For example, palm oil is under pressure and looking for support at the bottom, and soybean oil has increased short - term risks due to the fluctuation of US biodiesel policy [4].

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide investment ratings for the industry sectors discussed. Core Insights - The industrial metals sector is experiencing an upward turning point in market conditions, particularly for copper and aluminum, driven by easing trade tensions between the US and China [13]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are facing downward pressure due to a stronger US dollar and reduced appeal as a safe-haven asset amid improving trade relations [15]. - The rare earth sector is witnessing a simultaneous increase in both domestic and international prices, driven by export controls and a recovering market sentiment [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices increased slightly, with LME copper at $9,440.00 per ton and Shanghai copper at ¥78,100 per ton. A notable rise in copper inventory was observed, ending a ten-week decline, attributed to weakened downstream demand [13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.75% to $2,484.50 per ton, with domestic inventories remaining low despite a slight decrease in stock levels [14]. - Gold prices fell by 1.13% to $3,205.30 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and easing trade tensions between the US and China [15]. 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The report highlights a significant increase in copper inventory, reaching 132,000 tons, marking a shift in market dynamics due to reduced demand [13]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate has dropped to -$43.05 per ton, indicating pressure on the supply side [13]. 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 581,000 tons, remaining at a near three-year low, while the cost of prebaked anodes increased slightly [14]. - The report notes that the Guinean government has revoked mining licenses for over 40 companies, impacting aluminum ore production capacity [14]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of US-China trade negotiations on gold prices, with a significant reduction in SPDR gold holdings [15]. - Economic indicators such as the US CPI and PPI suggest a cooling inflation environment, which may influence future monetary policy [15]. 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth market is experiencing price increases, particularly for dysprosium and terbium, driven by export controls and a recovering market sentiment [32]. - The antimony market is expected to see price recovery due to supply disruptions from Myanmar and ongoing anti-smuggling efforts in China [33]. - Tin prices have risen, supported by positive expectations from US-China trade negotiations, despite some production concerns [35]. 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for rare earth elements are showing upward trends, with significant increases in overseas prices following export control measures [32]. - The report anticipates a continued tightening of supply due to regulatory changes and geopolitical factors affecting production [32]. 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to recover as supply constraints from Myanmar persist, alongside increased demand from various sectors [33]. 4.3 Tin - Tin prices are supported by a favorable market outlook, driven by demand recovery in sectors such as semiconductors and photovoltaics [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring investment opportunities in strategic metals such as rare earths, especially following significant price increases in overseas markets due to China's export controls [8][13]. - In the steel sector, there has been a notable increase in rebar consumption and a slight rise in overall steel prices, indicating a positive trend in demand [14][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints: Focus on Strategic Metals - The report highlights the strategic importance of rare earth metals, particularly in light of recent U.S.-China trade discussions that aim to reduce tariffs, which could enhance global economic recovery [8][13]. - Following China's export restrictions on heavy rare earths, overseas prices have surged, with dysprosium and terbium prices in Europe increasing nearly threefold [8][13]. 2. Steel Sector: Price Trends - Rebar consumption has risen significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.6 million tons, marking a 21.69% increase week-on-week [14][18]. - The overall steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.92%, with hot-rolled coil prices rising to 3,320 CNY/ton, a 1.40% increase, and cold-rolled prices at 3,767 CNY/ton, a 1.31% increase [14][38]. 3. New Energy Metals: Supply and Price Declines - Lithium production in April 2025 was reported at 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but with a slight month-on-month decline [15][42]. - Nickel production has seen a significant year-on-year decrease of 14.18%, while cobalt prices have shown a downward trend [15][44]. 4. Industrial Metals: Copper and Aluminum - Copper smelting fees have slightly increased, with the LME aluminum price settling at 2,474 USD/ton, reflecting a minor week-on-week rise of 0.20% [16]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, leading to increased profitability for producers [16][28]. 5. Precious Metals: Market Adjustments - Gold prices have experienced a notable decline of 3.72% week-on-week, attributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets following positive developments in U.S.-China relations [17].