Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is in a weak state. The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, and under a weak macro - expectation, the contract remains weak. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.07% lower at 14810 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread premium narrowing to 5 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is also in a weak state. The domestic methanol market is in a stage of oversupply and weak demand. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 1.00% lower at 2266 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread discount widening to 26 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, rebounding but being blocked, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.86% lower at 435.8 yuan/barrel. Systemic risks have occurred due to the continuous shutdown of the US federal government and Trump's resumption of the trade tariff war. At the same time, OPEC+ oil - producing countries continue to increase production, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil is being reversed due to the possible end of the Palestine - Israel conflict in the Middle East [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons (0.11%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.02% to 7.08 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.49% to 38.52 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but the overall shipment performance varies [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining in a high - prosperity range above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9% [10]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.95%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%; the acetic acid operating rate was 71.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.04%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.48% [11]. - As of October 17, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 106 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons, and a significant increase of 324,600 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 359,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 109,700 tons compared to the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a decrease of 83 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.524 million barrels and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.235 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 760,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 85.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (a 15.65% decrease) compared to the August average. As of October 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 31,345 contracts and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts (a 49.01% decrease) compared to the September average [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | + 115 yuan/ton | - 560 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,290 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2,266 yuan/ton | - 6 yuan/ton | + 24 yuan/ton | + 6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 421.2 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 435.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.8 yuan/barrel | - 14.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Related charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][19]. - Methanol: Related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month - spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35]. - Crude Oil: Related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [44][46][48].

Market Overview - The rubber sector increased by 0.95% on October 20, with Yuanxiang New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Stock Performance - Yuanxiang New Materials (301300) closed at 39.30, up 6.02% with a trading volume of 18,400 lots and a transaction value of 71.7095 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Kexin New Source (300731) at 41.73, up 3.50% with a trading volume of 58,600 lots [1] - Litong Technology (920225) at 31.90, up 2.90% with a trading volume of 108,800 lots [1] - Yongdong Co., Ltd. (002753) at 7.10, up 2.45% with a trading volume of 53,700 lots [1] Capital Flow - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 64.8746 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 61.5242 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Notable net inflows and outflows for specific stocks include: - Sanwen Co., Ltd. (002068) with a net inflow of 6.0209 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Tongcheng New Materials (603650) saw a net outflow of 4.51893 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Yuanxiang New Materials (301300) had a net inflow of 1.4385 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

Group 1 - The global polybutadiene rubber (PBR) trade structure is undergoing a significant shift as downstream tire manufacturers move production to Southeast Asia, with China transitioning from a net importer to a net exporter of PBR [1] - China's PBR exports from January to August 2025 reached 215,369 tons, surpassing imports of 176,079 tons, marking a notable change from previous years when China was a net importer [1] - The demand for PBR in China is expected to rise to 1.14 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, aligning with a 4% increase in passenger car tire production, which reached 460 million units [1] Group 2 - The average price of PBR in Northeast Asia fell to $1,518 per ton in the third quarter of 2025, making it cheaper than natural rubber, which was priced at $1,698 per ton during the same period [2] - China's PBR production increased by over 25% year-on-year to 1.023 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, aided by the addition of 243,000 tons of new capacity [2] - The industry is shifting focus towards high-performance and high-value-added products, particularly rare earth PBR and low-cis PBR, with manufacturers able to switch production lines flexibly [2] Group 3 - Natural rubber prices in Asia remain consistently higher than PBR due to supply instability in major rubber-producing countries in Southeast Asia, with recent prices showing PBR at $1,671 per ton compared to $1,785 per ton for TSR 20 [3] - The acceleration of Chinese tire manufacturers relocating to Southeast Asia has directly contributed to the growth of PBR exports from China, with export prices significantly lower than local sources [3] - In 2024, nearly 50% of the 168 million tires imported by the U.S. came from Southeast Asia, highlighting the region's growing importance as a source for tire exports [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on natural rubber is "oscillating", indicating that in the short - term, it may maintain a weak performance [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side volume increase expectations are strengthening, and rubber maintains a weak performance. Factors such as产区 weather improvement expectations may loosen raw material price support, while mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and post - holiday downstream operating rates may rise. However, external macro disturbances are negative [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, Yunnan has some rainfall disturbances but overall supply is okay with slightly lower raw material purchase prices; Hainan's rainfall affects rubber tapping, and supply increase is slow. In Thailand, the northeast and north have less rainfall, and the price of raw material cup - rubber has dropped significantly; the south has irregular rainfall, and the glue price has stopped falling and rebounded. In Vietnam, the weather has improved, and glue supply is normal [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points; the semi - steel tire sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 660,000 tons, a decrease of 0.08%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 420,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7% [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. After the holiday, the RU - mixed spread has narrowed, and the basis between futures and spot has continued to shrink. The spread between the RU and NR main contracts has also narrowed [3]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan has improved, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex has still been in the loss range but has recovered significantly [3]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: It is bearish. Affected by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the overall bearish performance of the commodity market [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed variety [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The supply - side volume increase expectations are strengthening, and rubber maintains a weak performance. As of October 17, the RU main contract closed at 14,695 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 620 yuan/ton (- 4.05%); the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,225 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 125 yuan/ton (- 1.04%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have loosened [9]. - **Position on the Futures Board**: The position of the RU2601 contract is relatively low, while the total position of NR has increased, and the RU - NR spread has significantly narrowed [16][23][30]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices have declined [49]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+ 1.76%) [62]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+ 4.25%) [72]. - **China's Imports**: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+ 19.47%). In September 2025, China imported a total of 742,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 20.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to September, the total import was 6.115 million tons, a 19.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [85][91]. - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's social inventory has significantly decreased. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.088 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [101][109]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: After the holiday, tire capacity utilization has rebounded. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%. It is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [110][117]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, automobile sales growth accelerated, and in August, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, an 82% increase compared to the same period last year [126][136]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to August, tire exports were 6.19 million tons (+ 5.1%) [137]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, while the delivery profit of full - latex is in a loss [147].

Report on the Rubber Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View In the short - term, the rubber price may follow the macro - led market due to the lack of obvious fundamental drivers. If the raw material supply is smooth during the peak production season in the main producing areas, the price may decline further; if not, the price is expected to run around 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Category - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 17, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan to 14,250 yuan, with a decline of 0.35%. The whole - milk basis increased by 155 yuan to - 445 yuan, with an increase of 25.83%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan to 14,650 yuan, with an increase of 0.34%. The non - standard price difference increased by 255 yuan to - 45 yuan, with an increase of 85.00% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 350% to an unspecified value, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 10 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 32 yuan [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 2.00 to 458.80, with a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8.50 to 189.00, with a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5.00 to 50.00, with an increase of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12.20 to 113.70. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires increased by 26.21 and 20.56 respectively. In August, domestic tire production increased by 859.00 to 10,295.4, with an increase of 9.10%. In September, tire exports decreased by 671.00 to 5,630.0, with a decline of 10.65%. In August, the total import of natural rubber increased by 4.60 to 52.08 million tons, with an increase of 9.68%. In September, the import of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 8.00 to 74.00 million tons, with an increase of 12.12% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 486 to 456,039, with a decline of 0.11%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE decreased by 1,210 to 40,119, with a decline of 2.93% [1]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the idea of shorting on rebounds should be continued. For glass, in the medium - and long - term, the industry needs to clear excess capacity, and if the demand continues to weaken, it can be treated as bearish [3]. Summary by Category - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On October 17, the North China glass price decreased by 30 yuan to 1,180 yuan, with a decline of 2.48%; the South China price decreased by 40 yuan to 1,270 yuan, with a decline of 3.05%. The glass 2505 contract decreased by 53 yuan to 1,231 yuan, with a decline of 4.13%; the glass 2509 contract decreased by 38 yuan to 1,322 yuan, with a decline of 2.79%. The 05 basis increased by 23 yuan to - 51 yuan, with an increase of 31.08% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 31 yuan to 1,294 yuan, with a decline of 2.34%; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 1,360 yuan, with a decline of 1.81%. The 05 spread increased by 31 yuan to 6 yuan, with an increase of 124.00% [3]. - **Supply**: On October 17, the soda ash operating rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and the weekly production increased by 2.5 million tons to 77.08 million tons. The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.2 million tons to 16.13 million tons, with an increase of 1.16% [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 346.9 million weight boxes to 6,282.40 million weight boxes, with an increase of 5.84%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 6.0 million tons to 165.98 million tons, with an increase of 3.74%; the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.7 million tons to 69.91 million tons, with an increase of 4.05% [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [3]. Report on the Log Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View Currently, there is no obvious driver in the log supply - demand situation. The near - month 11 contract is weak, while the far - month 01 contract is relatively strong. The 01 contract may be treated as bullish [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Price**: On October 17, the log 2511 contract increased by 7 yuan to 804 yuan per cubic meter, with an increase of 0.88%; the log 2601 contract increased by 11 yuan to 835.5 yuan per cubic meter, with an increase of 1.33%. The prices of major benchmark delivery spot products remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: In September, the port shipping volume increased by 10.0 million cubic meters to 176.6 million cubic meters, with an increase of 6.00%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 2.0 to 46.0 [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 299 million cubic meters, an increase of 13 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. - **Demand**: As of October 10, the average daily log delivery volume was 5.73 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.83 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The industrial silicon price is under pressure due to increased supply and accumulated inventory, but there is cost support below. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton. If the 11 - contract price drops to 8,000 - 8,300 yuan per ton, buying on dips can be considered [5]. Summary by Category - **Spot Price and Main - contract Basis**: On October 17, the prices of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of different varieties increased to varying degrees [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 180 yuan to 185 yuan, with an increase of 640.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 420 yuan, with a decline of 9.09% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In the month, the national industrial silicon production increased by 3.51 million tons to 42.08 million tons, with an increase of 9.10%. The Xinjiang production increased by 3.36 million tons to 20.32 million tons, with an increase of 19.78%. The national operating rate increased by 6.07% to 61.94%. The organic silicon DMC production decreased by 1.29 million tons to 21.02 million tons, with a decline of 5.78%. The polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 million tons to 13.00 million tons, with a decline of 1.29% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.01 million tons to 10.85 million tons, with a decline of 0.09%. The social inventory increased by 1.70 million tons to 56.20 million tons, with an increase of 3.12% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The polysilicon market is relatively stable, mainly in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand - side orders. If there are long positions, they can be closed at high prices [7]. Summary by Category - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 17, the average price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 50 yuan to 52,800 yuan per ton, with an increase of 0.09%. The N - type material basis increased by 285 yuan to 460 yuan, with an increase of 162.86% [7]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract decreased by 235 yuan to 52,340 yuan per ton, with a decline of 0.45%. The spreads between different contracts changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In the week, the silicon wafer production increased by 1.52GW to 14.35GW, with an increase of 11.85%. In the month, the polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 million tons to 13.00 million tons, with a decline of 1.29%. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.02 million tons to 0.10 million tons, with a decline of 14.02%; the export volume increased by 0.09 million tons to 0.30 million tons, with an increase of 40.12% [7]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.30 million tons to 25.30 million tons, with an increase of 5.42%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.53 million tons to 17.31 million tons, with an increase of 3.16% [7].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The 23rd China International Rubber Technology Exhibition was held in Shanghai from September 17 to 19, showcasing global rubber industry leaders and their innovations [1] - The exhibition served as a platform for industry experience exchange, product showcasing, and future development discussions [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Innovations - The rubber industry is facing challenges such as declining profit margins due to "involution" and oversaturation in sectors like rubber additives and tire materials [2] - Companies are shifting focus from price competition to value competition, emphasizing differentiation and personalized solutions to meet specific market demands [2] - Jiangsu Kao New Materials Co., Ltd. is targeting core areas like rubber additives and high-performance composite materials to align with downstream needs [2] - China Chemical's Guilin Rubber Design Institute is advancing smart production through automated lines and digital control to enhance efficiency [3] Group 3: Sustainability and Smart Technology - Green and smart technologies are prominent themes at the exhibition, with companies like Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Co., Ltd. implementing low-carbon and circular economy practices [3] - The focus on sustainable practices includes using agricultural waste as a substitute for petroleum in production processes [3] Group 4: Networking and Market Expansion - The exhibition acts as a communication bridge, linking upstream and downstream enterprises in the rubber industry, facilitating information exchange and collaboration [4] - There has been a notable increase in international exhibitors and overseas clients, indicating a growing global presence for Chinese rubber companies [5] - Companies like Shunma Industrial Co., Ltd. are expanding their production capabilities overseas, establishing bases in Southeast Asia to better serve regional markets [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Natural rubber's center of gravity has slightly declined, with the weekly decline of Qingdao STR20 mixed rubber and Shanghai full - latex rubber being about 1.5%. The center of gravity of butadiene rubber has reached a low of 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4]. - After the "Double Festival", tire production has fully resumed, with the operating load of Shandong all - steel tires rising by 18.7 percentage points to 65%, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires also increasing significantly. The downstream is replenishing inventory at low prices [4]. - The NR - RU spread has been strengthening since the delivery of the 09 contract. Fundamentally, the low Thai water - cup spread supports the strength of NR, while sufficient domestic production capacity supports the weakness of RU. However, most other data do not support the continuous strengthening of NR [17]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis - **Valuation**: The center of gravity of natural rubber has slightly declined. Qingdao STR20 mixed rubber is at 14,586 yuan/ton, and Shanghai full - latex rubber is at 14,387 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of about 1.5%. The center of gravity of butadiene rubber has reached a low of 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: In Hainan and Xishuangbanna, rainfall has affected production, with the daily glue output being only over a thousand tons, and the domestic raw material purchase price has been reduced by 650 - 750 yuan/ton in total. In northeastern Thailand, the weather has improved, and the cup - lump rubber has fallen to 50.4 Thai baht/kg. The synthetic rubber supply has increased, with the comprehensive operating rate rising to 74.8% and the social inventory increasing by 14.6% month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: After the "Double Festival", tire production has fully resumed. The operating load of Shandong all - steel tires has risen by 18.7 percentage points to 65%, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires has also increased significantly. The downstream is replenishing inventory at low prices. Generally, when truck and bus tires are stronger than car tires, rubber prices tend to be weak, but now car tires also show signs of stabilization [4]. Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side**: Hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract, and set a stop - loss at the recent high of 15,000 points; wait and see for the NR main 12 contract, and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 12,360 points; try to go long on the BR main 12 contract at an appropriate time, and set a stop - loss at the recent low of 10,790 points [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Intervene in RU2601 - NR2601 at an appropriate time; hold the BR2601 - RU2601 (2 lots to 1 lot) position at - 4,010 points, and raise the stop - loss to the recent low of - 4,090 points [5]. - **Options**: Sell the RU2601 put 13,500 contract at an appropriate time, and set a stop - loss at the high of 103 points last Friday; pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 219 points for the BR2512 call 11,200 contract [5]. Focus - NR Valuation (NR - RU Spread) - **Negative factors for the spread**: The import volume of Indonesian standard rubber has increased significantly and has become the main body of NR delivery [8]. - **Positive factors for the spread**: The Thai water - cup spread has reached a new low, indicating that the raw materials for standard rubber are extremely strong; the increasing trend of domestic rubber production is relatively unfavorable for RU valuation [10][13]. Natural Rubber Supply - The year - on - year decline of Thai glue is greater than that of RU. As of October, Thai glue has closed at 54.1 Thai baht/kg, with a year - on - year decline of - 34.8%, and the decline is expanding, far greater than the year - on - year decline of - 7.0% of the RU contract [26]. - The water - cup spread in Yunnan also shows that the RU contract is still overvalued. The average daily weighted rainfall in Thailand in October has increased year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 6 consecutive months, which means an increase in supply [26]. Synthetic Rubber Supply - As of last Friday, the domestic butadiene production capacity utilization rate has decreased, the high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity utilization rate has increased, the butadiene port inventory has increased, and the butadiene rubber trader and factory inventory has increased [36]. Mixed Basis - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 456,000 tons, a decrease of 0.11% month - on - month. The bonded area inventory has increased, and the general trade inventory has decreased. After the festival, the macro - atmosphere in the rubber market is bearish, and downstream enterprises are mostly waiting and watching [39]. Downstream Consumption - **After - festival all - steel tire**: The production line operating rate has increased to 64.5%, and the finished product inventory has been accumulating for 7 consecutive weeks to 40 days, with active inventory accumulation [46]. - **Semi - steel tire**: The production line operating rate has increased to 72.7%, and the product inventory has been de - stocking for 9 consecutive weeks to 45 days, with passive de - stocking and a tightening balance [46]. - **European automobile industry**: As of October 2025, the European automobile industry index has declined month - on - month but strengthened year - on - year, which is positive for the RU single - side [53]. - **Domestic automobile inventory**: As of September 2025, the domestic automobile inventory index has been accumulating for 2 consecutive months to 57.9 points, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, which is negative for the RU single - side [53]. RU Month - spread - In August, the domestic capital annualized interest rate was 1.49%, with interest rate cuts for 4 consecutive months, which determined the narrowing of the September - January space. As of October, the RU warehouse receipts have been de - stocking for 6 consecutive months to 140,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.8%, which is positive for the near - end [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, the peak - season demand has disappointed, and the pattern of high domestic inventory and weak reality remains. However, the port pressure has eased due to the delay in unloading imported goods. Future upward price drivers may come from the expected improvement brought by winter gas restrictions. It's advisable to focus on supply - side disturbances and look for long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. - For urea, there is still a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9][11]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, currently, there is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 10.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.39% decline, at 432.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed changes in various oil inventories, such as a 3.52 - million - barrel increase in commercial crude oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite the disappearance of geopolitical premiums and minimal OPEC production increase, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 2.5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 47 yuan to 2272 yuan/ton, with the basis at par [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply has slightly decreased, and coal prices are rising, reducing coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remains weak. The peak - season demand has disappointed, but the port pressure has eased. Future upward drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. Focus on supply - side disturbances and long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan to 1602 yuan, with a basis of - 72 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and the operating rate has significantly declined. The demand is weak, but the price is at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering, with RU stabilizing and NR being relatively strong. Typhoon Fengshen may affect rubber - producing areas. There are different views among bulls and bears. As of October 16, 2025, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises have changed, and some all - steel tire enterprises have issued price - increase notices [10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 4688 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has continued to decline, and the supply is strong while demand is weak. The export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged, while the styrene spot price increased and the futures price decreased. The basis strengthened. Supply - side operating rates decreased, and port inventory decreased. Demand - side operating rates increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and production enterprise inventory increased while trader inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and demand is gradually picking up. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply surplus is expected to expand. The supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side situation suppresses the market [27]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 84 yuan. The load of PX decreased, and multiple devices were under maintenance. The load of PTA increased, and imports from South Korea to China increased in early October. Inventory increased in August [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. There is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 54 yuan. The load of PTA increased, and some devices adjusted their loads. The downstream load decreased slightly, and inventory increased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 86 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and multiple devices had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the natural rubber market will experience range - bound fluctuations in the short term. Overseas weather improvements are putting pressure on raw material prices, and there is a risk of further weakening in the cost support for rubber prices. However, the reduction in the arrival of standard rubber at ports provides some support for rubber prices, and the expected inventory build - up has not materialized yet [100][101]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - Cambodia's latex exports in the first nine months of 2025 decreased by 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons, with export revenue down 1%. Domestic latex consumption increased by 102% [5]. - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million for the first time in the same period of history, with production reaching 327.6 million and sales 322.6 million, up 17.1% and 14.9% year - on - year respectively [6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 19.2% year - on - year to 611.5 million tons [7]. - The ANRPC called for setting a living - wage rubber price for rubber farmers [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - The rubber market declined overall this week, with a significant drop in RU. On October 17, 2025, the closing price of RU2601.SHF was 14,695 yuan/ton, down 4.05% from the previous period; NR2601.SHF was 12,155 yuan/ton, down 1.82% [10][12]. - The basis and monthly spreads changed. On October 17, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 595 yuan/ton, up 16.78% from the previous period; the 01 - 05 monthly spread was 10 yuan/ton, down 75% from the previous period [17]. - Other spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, RU - JPX RSS3, and NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The substitution prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber also declined [18][31]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU and NR increased, while the settled funds decreased [34]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - In Thailand, rainfall in the south was slightly lower than the same period, and rainfall in the northeast increased. In China, precipitation in domestic production areas eased compared to last week [41][42]. - The prices of Thai cup rubber and smoked sheets, as well as the glue prices in Hainan and Yunnan, decreased, while the Thai glue price increased slightly [44]. - The price difference between Thai water and cup rubber widened, and the price difference of Hainan glue between entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole milk factory increased [47]. - The processing profit of Thai standard rubber improved, while the production profits of smoked sheets and concentrated latex declined. The delivery profit in Hainan decreased, while that in Yunnan slightly rebounded [52][55]. - In August 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but the exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Exports to China also showed similar trends [63][66]. - In September 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but exports to China decreased month - on - month [69]. - In August 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the exports of standard rubber and latex to China continued to grow strongly [73]. - In August 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high level year - on - year, and exports to China were also at a high level year - on - year [76]. - In August 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) were 52.08 million tons, up 9.68% month - on - month and 5.39% year - on - year [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly, with the all - steel tire inventory continuing to rise and the semi - steel tire inventory continuing to decline [84]. - In August 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level year - on - year. The sales of heavy - duty trucks continued to recover in August, and the sales of passenger cars continued to grow strongly in September [85]. - In August 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation improved slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year [88]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The natural rubber inventory continued to decline, with the decline in light - colored rubber being significantly greater than that in dark - colored rubber. The futures inventory of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber also decreased [92][97]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: As of Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and the cup rubber price was 50.2 Thai baht/kg. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [101]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, with data affected by the National Day holiday [101]. - **View**: The short - term rubber price is expected to fluctuate within a range [100]. - **Valuation**: On Friday, the basis between whole milk and the main RU contract was - 595 yuan/ton, narrowing by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the price difference between mixed standard rubber and the main RU contract was - 145 yuan/ton, narrowing by 75 yuan/ton [101]. - **Strategy**: - For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach or expect range - bound fluctuations for RU. - For inter - period trading, observe the arrival volume at ports and consider a positive spread strategy. - For inter - variety trading, conduct observations [101].