（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月16日，香港恒生指数收跌1.54%，恒生科技指数跌1.74%。果下科技上市首日大涨超 117%。黄金股下跌，紫金黄金国际跌6%，赤峰黄金跌超5%，珠峰黄金跌超3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to show a significant slowdown in job growth, with an anticipated increase of only 40,000 jobs compared to 119,000 in September, and an unemployment rate projected to remain at a four-year high of 4.4% [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a cooling labor market, with various indicators such as JOLTS job openings, ADP private employment, and ISM manufacturing/services employment components showing reduced labor demand [3] - The temporary federal government shutdown at the end of September to early October may have delayed hiring for some government contractors, potentially impacting November's data [3] - The latest private employment data for November shows a decline of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop in over two and a half years, primarily due to layoffs in small businesses [4] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings have risen to the highest level in five months, reaching 7.67 million, while layoffs increased to 1.85 million in October, the highest since early 2023 [4] - The average hourly wage growth is expected to be 3.6% year-over-year, reflecting a slowdown in wage growth due to a softening job market [1][7] - The number of initial jobless claims has seen the largest increase in nearly four and a half years, although this may not indicate a substantial weakening of the job market [10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but officials may pause further cuts while seeking clearer signals regarding the labor market and inflation [12] - A weak non-farm payroll report could significantly increase market expectations for further rate cuts in January, while unexpectedly strong data may lead the Fed to maintain a cautious approach [12] - The anticipated weak employment report could trigger a classic macro trading pattern, leading to a weaker dollar, stronger gold and U.S. Treasuries, and a structured rise in U.S. equities [13]

Group 1 - The core analysis focuses on the supply-demand contradiction, particularly in the midstream sector, where the demand-investment growth differential has increased to 7.6% in November, up from 6.4% in the previous month, indicating a potential shift from "strong supply, weak demand" to "weak supply, strong demand" [1][4][30] - The methodology involves calculating the difference between demand growth and investment growth, with a positive differential suggesting that supply-demand contradictions are easing, which may lead to price stabilization in the future [3][32] - Current observations indicate that while midstream demand growth has slightly decreased to 8.9% in November from 9.3% in October, midstream investment growth has also declined to 1.3%, resulting in a continued upward trend in the demand-investment growth differential since May 2024 [4][33] Group 2 - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth differential is likely to remain positive, with expectations for the midstream Producer Price Index (PPI) to stop declining and potentially rise in 2026 [2][31] - In November, the midstream PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.04%, marking the first positive change since June 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in midstream profitability [5][34] - The analysis of November's economic data reveals a weakening supply side, with industrial production growth at 4.8% and service sector production index at 4.2%, while consumer demand and investment remain weak [43][45] Group 3 - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with property sales area down 17.3% year-on-year in November, and real estate investment declining by 30.3% [20][26] - Employment remains stable, with the urban survey unemployment rate holding steady at 5.1% in November, indicating a relatively stable labor market despite economic pressures [43][45] - Consumer retail sales growth has slowed to 1.3% in November, down from 2.9% in October, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer spending [17][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the improvement of supply-demand contradictions in the midstream sector, indicating a potential shift from "strong supply and weak demand" to "weak supply and strong demand" in the coming years [2][3]. Group 1: Midstream Supply-Demand Analysis - The analysis method involves measuring the difference between demand growth and investment growth, where a positive difference indicates alleviation of supply-demand contradictions [2][5]. - Key indicators include upstream demand from material exports and construction investment, midstream demand from machinery exports and equipment investment, and downstream demand from labor-intensive product exports [5][12]. - In November, the midstream demand growth was 8.9%, slightly down from 10.3% in September, while midstream investment growth was 1.3%, down from 4.2% in September, leading to a demand-investment growth difference of 7.6% [6][13]. Group 2: Future Projections - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth difference is likely to remain positive, with expectations for the midstream PPI (Producer Price Index) to stop declining and potentially rise by 2026 [3][14]. - The midstream PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.04% in November, marking the first positive change since June 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in midstream ROE (Return on Equity) [7][14]. Group 3: November Economic Data Overview - In November, industrial production growth was 4.8%, while service sector production index growth was 4.2%, indicating a slight weakening in supply-side performance [19]. - Consumer retail sales growth was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, while exports rebounded to a growth of 5.9% from a decline of 1.1% [19][21]. - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment saw a decline of 12.0% in November [19][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate for migrant agricultural workers to 4.4% [23]. - The CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose to 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.2%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [21][22].

Valuation of Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) and Hang Seng Index (HSI) are key indicators of market valuation[8][12] - The Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) reflects the valuation trends in the tech sector[16][18] Industry Valuation Levels - The PE (TTM) valuation shows that the utilities sector is undervalued, with a percentile below 20%[23] - Consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare, information technology, and utilities are below the 50th percentile in PE valuation[23] - High valuation sectors (above 50%) include energy, materials, industrials, financials, and telecommunications[23] - No sectors are currently undervalued based on PB (LF) valuation, with consumer staples, information technology, utilities, and real estate below the 50th percentile[27] - Energy, materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, and telecommunications are above the 50th percentile in PB valuation[27] AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The Hang Seng AH Share Premium Index shows fluctuations in premium levels over time, with historical averages and standard deviations noted[33]

Economic Overview - The national economy in November 2025 showed characteristics of "stable production, differentiated consumption, and pressured investment" with industrial production recovering to normal levels after holiday disruptions[8] - The industrial added value in November grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal slowdown in growth[10] - Fixed asset investment from January to November decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with November's monthly growth rate at -12.0%, although this was a slight improvement from the previous month[30] Production Insights - New industries continue to show resilience, with automotive manufacturing and transportation equipment leading in production growth, while traditional sectors face challenges[11] - The production index for services grew by 4.2% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from October, reflecting seasonal adjustments post-holiday[14] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in November grew by only 1.3% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, with large-scale retail sales dropping by 2.0%[20] - The promotional season's impact was limited, with online retail growth slowing from 8.1% to 5.4%, indicating weaker consumer demand[23] Investment Dynamics - Manufacturing investment showed signs of marginal improvement, particularly in high-tech sectors, despite an overall negative growth trend[31] - Real estate investment remains under pressure, with sales area and sales value down by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[34] Risk Factors - External uncertainties are increasing, and domestic demand may decline more than expected, posing risks to economic stability[36]

巴西IBOVESPA指数是拉丁美洲规模最大、历史最悠久的股票市场基准指数，该指数包含了约80家巴西 最具代表性的上市公司，覆盖了巴西在国际上具有比较优势的矿业和农业等产业，金融和能源行业的权 重比较高，成份股大致可归类为以下几个方向： 今日市场下跌，巴西ETF逆势上涨。 资源与能源类：淡水河谷（全球最大铁矿石生产商之一）、巴西石油公司； 金融类：布拉德斯科银行、伊塔屋投资银行、巴西银行； 消费与公用事业类：安贝夫（拉美饮料巨头）、巴西电力； 工业与其他：巴西航空工业公司、WEG SA（电机与自动化公司）。 （原标题：巴西ETF逆势上涨，跨境ETF迎来快速发展期，规模已逼近万亿元大关） 巴西ETF均跟踪巴西的IBOVESPA ETF指数，但不是直接投资巴西股票，而是分别挂钩巴西两家资管公 司的ETF产品，其中，易方达巴西ETF挂钩巴西伊塔乌资管旗下产品，华夏巴西ETF挂钩巴西布拉德斯 科资管公司旗下产品。 当前巴西IBOVESPA指数的市盈率10.51倍，处于近10年43.46%分位数；指数股息率7%，处于近10年 73.31%分位数。 近年来，跨境ETF迎来快速发展期，规模已逼近万亿元大关。据Wind数据显示 ...

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Municipal Financial Office emphasizes the importance of financial work in Shenzhen, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and aims to align actions with the central government's economic assessments [1] - The meeting highlights the need to effectively manage financial risks, particularly focusing on key enterprises and real estate companies, while implementing a tailored approach for small financial institutions [2] - There is a strong commitment to enhancing the quality of financial services, particularly in supporting technological innovation and high-quality industrial development, with a focus on creating a globally influential industrial financial center [3] Group 2 - The meeting calls for a robust regulatory framework to prevent financial risks, including strict measures against illegal financial activities and improved collaboration among departments [2] - The financial system's party-building efforts are emphasized, aiming to strengthen the political and organizational functions of grassroots party organizations within the financial sector [3] - The strategic focus for 2026 includes balancing development and safety, with plans to support small and medium-sized enterprises, expand domestic demand, and enhance innovation in capital formation [3]

超大型风渔融合网箱平台——"伏羲一号"正式投产，高新技术企业培育和科技成果转化跑出"加速度"， 创新岛研发迈入2.0模式……当前，广东汕尾创新浪潮奔涌，科技动能澎湃，而在这背后，金融正悄然 汇聚成推动区域发展的强大引擎。 近年来，中国人民银行汕尾市分行紧扣地方产业特色和科技创新需求，通过创新"一项服务"、强化"一 个抓手"、做优"一种模式"，持续提升科技金融服务的精准性和实效性，为汕尾高质量发展注入"硬 核"动力。截至今年上半年末，全市科技贷款余额410.69亿元，同比增长26.6%。 创新"一项服务" 打破政金企信息壁垒 "作为一家扎根汕尾的企业，我们曾为融资辗转反侧，股权、债权、担保、租赁……每一条路似乎都隔 着'玻璃门'，看得见却难打通。直到'股贷担保租'联动服务队的出现，真正打通了我们企业和金融行业 的'最后一公里'。"海丰县润宝印刷科技有限公司相关负责人激动地说道。 "股贷担保租"联动服务队是在中国人民银行汕尾市分行指导下，由建行汕尾市分行、太平洋财产保险汕 尾分公司等五家机构成立的，专门为科技企业提供股权融资、信贷支持、风险担保、保险保障、设备租 赁等全链条、定制化金融服务的专业团队。 联动服务队 ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The report constructs multiple ETF portfolios, including macro industry, macro + momentum industry, core - satellite, and trinity style rotation portfolios, to capture investment opportunities and manage risks in the ETF market [1][5]. - It combines macro - based and momentum - based methods to form complementary strategies, aiming to improve the performance of the portfolios [12]. - The trinity style rotation model uses macro liquidity as the core to build a long - term style rotation model and selects ETFs based on the model's results [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. ETF Portfolio Construction Methods 1.1 Based on Macro Method - Calculate the macro - sensitivity scores of economic, liquidity, and credit for industry - themed ETFs, and adjust the scores according to the latest indicators. Select the top 6 industry - themed indices and corresponding largest - scale ETFs for equal - weight allocation [1][7]. - Traditional cyclical industries are sensitive to the economy, TMT is sensitive to liquidity, and consumption is sensitive to credit. State - owned enterprises and ESG - related themes have low sensitivity to liquidity and credit [5]. 1.2 Trinity Style Rotation - Build a long - term style rotation model centered on macro liquidity, including growth/value, market capitalization, and quality models. Combine the results of the three models to get the final style preference [6]. - Screen ETFs with high exposure to the target style, control industry exposure, and set allocation limits to obtain the ETF allocation model [6]. 2. Macro Industry Portfolio - Select industry - themed ETFs that have been established for over 1 year and have a current scale of over 200 million. Calculate and adjust sensitivity scores, and remove liquidity scores if there is a significant divergence between liquidity and credit. Then select the top 6 industry - themed indices and corresponding largest - scale ETFs for equal - weight allocation [7][8]. - Currently, with economic forward - looking indicators rising and liquidity and credit indicators tightening, the portfolio is value - oriented with high proportions of banks and cyclical sectors. The December 2025 holdings include Huabao CSI Bank ETF, Cathay CSI Coal ETF, etc. [9]. - The portfolio has large fluctuations and outperformed the benchmark significantly in November 2025 [11]. 3. Macro + Momentum Industry Portfolio - Combine macro - based and momentum - based methods. Use clustering to group industry - themed indices and select the product with the highest 6 - month return from each group for equal - weight allocation [12]. - The December 2025 holdings include Huabao CSI Bank ETF, Cathay CSI Coal ETF, and others. The battery and metal industries selected by momentum have increased [15]. - The portfolio has performed well this year and outperformed the CSI 300 significantly in November 2025 [16]. 4. Core - Satellite Portfolio - Design a "core - satellite" portfolio with the CSI 300 as the core to address the high volatility and rapid industry rotation of industry - themed ETFs [18]. - Calculate macro - sensitivity scores for domestic broad - based, industry - themed, and Smart Beta ETFs, construct three stock portfolios, and weight them at 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively [18]. - The December 2025 holdings include Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300 ETF, Huaxia SSE 50 ETF, etc. The portfolio has been stable this year and outperformed the index almost every month, including in November 2025 [21][23]. 5. Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - The model currently favors small - cap growth + high - quality segments. The factor exposures and historical performance are presented in the report [24]. - The December 2025 holdings include Southern CSI 500ETF, Southern CSI 1000ETF, etc. [30].