1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is bullish on the medium - to long - term outlook for vegetable oils, suggesting retaining existing long positions and adding new ones in small amounts. It also maintains a medium - term bullish view on double - meal products and recommends new long positions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On August 22, supported by macro factors and pressure release after previous adjustments, the vegetable oil futures market closed higher. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all saw price increases and position growth, except for the secondary main contract of rapeseed oil which had a slight position reduction [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - At the global central bank annual meeting on August 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech was extremely dovish, increasing the probability of a rate cut and boosting global financial market enthusiasm. - The US Environmental Protection Agency approved some exemption applications for small refineries, which is expected to maintain or increase the overall demand for biofuels, benefiting the demand for soybean oil as a key raw material for biodiesel. - Canada's AAFC estimated the country's rapeseed production at 20.1 million tons, a 12.9% increase from the July estimate. The governor of Saskatchewan plans to visit China to discuss rapeseed issues. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 37.2% [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of August 22, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,660 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,540 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,010 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, Powell's dovish remarks increased the expectation of a US rate cut in September, and the US bio - diesel policy was favorable, leading to a sharp rise in US soybean oil. The strong export data supported the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, policies and macro - economic factors were positive, and the inventory of the three major oils rebounded, mainly driven by soybean oil. With the approaching of the autumn semester and Mid - Autumn Festival, demand is expected to increase, and the soybean oil inventory in factories may peak soon and then gradually decline, with the possibility of an increase in spot basis quotes [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, hold existing long positions and add new ones in small amounts. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On August 22, rumors of state - reserve auctions and expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest weakened South American discounts, causing double - meal futures prices to decline [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The US Midwest Pro Farmer crop tour results showed a potential bumper harvest of US soybeans this year, increasing supply - side pressure. - According to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report, US soybean export sales met expectations, with new - crop soybean sales exceeding expectations. - Brazil's Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in August would increase [2][3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of August 22, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,078 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,515 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.4 Market Logic - Externally, although the US soybean yield exceeded expectations, market rumors of Chinese purchases and possible state - reserve auctions eased the supply - shortage expectation for the first quarter of next year, causing the double - meal futures prices to decline. Domestically, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was at a high level, but market transactions improved, and the upward trend of the spot price remained unchanged [3]. 3.2.5 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, new long positions can be established. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [3].

Report Information - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [1][4][12][15][19][23][30][32][33][37] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research [5][12][16][19][23][30][33][37] Overall Core Views - Palm oil: With the negative impact of US soybean oil SRE exhausted, international oils are rising [2][4] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is consolidating at a high level [2][4] - Soybean meal: After the overnight slight increase in US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][12] - Soybean No.1: Rebound and fluctuate [2][12] - Corn: Oscillate [2][15] - Sugar: Fluctuate in a narrow range [2][19] - Cotton: Futures prices are oscillating strongly [2][23] - Eggs: Near - term, focus on the rhythm of old hen culling; long - term sentiment remains weak [2][30] - Live pigs: The positive impact of reserve purchases has materialized, awaiting spot market confirmation [2][33] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][37] Industry - Specific Summaries Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,510 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.78% increase and 9,570 yuan/ton at night with a 0.63% increase; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,492 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.83% increase and 8,428 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.75% decrease [5] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,540 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,670 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [5] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 30 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 178 yuan/ton [5] - **Macro and Industry News** - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 3.03% compared to the same period last month [6] - The US EPA announced the results of small refinery biofuel exemption applications, and will return 1.39 billion gallons of RIN credit for 2023 and 2024 [9] - Pro Farmer predicted record - high average yields for US corn and soybeans in 2025 [10] - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area was estimated at 18 million hectares, up 8.4% from the previous year, and production was estimated at 50.9 million tons, up 5.6% [10] - In the 34th week, oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume was 227 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%, 134,300 tons lower than expected [10] - **Trend Intensity** - Palm oil trend intensity: 1; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3985 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.28% decrease and 3996 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% increase; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3088 yuan/ton during the day with a - 1.28% decrease and 3108 yuan/ton at night with a 0.45% increase [12] - Spot: The price of 43% soybean meal was 3060 - 3110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan to unchanged from the previous day [12] - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.1 million tons, and the previous week's inventory was 97.4 million tons [12] - **Macro and Industry News** - On August 22, CBOT soybeans hit a two - month high, supported by Chinese demand expectations and strong soybean oil [12][14] - **Trend Intensity** - Soybean meal trend intensity: 0; soybean No.1 trend intensity: 0 [14] Corn - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: C2509 closed at 2214 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.27% decrease and 2219 yuan/ton at night with a 0.23% increase; C2511 closed at 2175 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.32% increase and 2174 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.05% decrease [16] - Spot: Jinzhou's closing price was 2260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangdong Shekou's price was 2360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [16] - Basis: The main 11 - contract basis was 85 yuan/ton; the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 39 yuan/ton [16] - **Macro and Industry News** - Northern corn port prices were 2210 - 2230 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou's prices were stable [17] - **Trend Intensity** - Corn trend intensity: 0 [18] Sugar - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: The main futures price was 5670 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - Basis: The mainstream spot basis was 310 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [19] - **Macro and Industry News** - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation has weakened [19] - China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [19] - CAOC estimated domestic sugar production, consumption, and imports for 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [20] - ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season [21] - **Trend Intensity** - Sugar trend intensity: 0 [21] Cotton - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: CF2601 closed at 14030 yuan/ton during the day with no change and 14155 yuan/ton at night with a 0.89% increase [23] - Spot: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15272 yuan/ton, unchanged [23] - Spread: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [23] - **Macro and Industry News** - Domestic cotton spot trading was partially good, and cotton yarn market trading was okay, while the cotton fabric market was weak [24] - ICE cotton futures rose slightly on Friday, driven by US interest - rate cut expectations [25] - **Trend Intensity** - Cotton trend intensity: 0 [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Egg 2509 closed at 2920 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.21% decrease; Egg 2601 closed at 3434 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.67% decrease [30] - Spot: The price of Liaoning eggs was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan [30] - **Trend Intensity** - Egg trend intensity: 0 [30] Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Live pig 2509 closed at 13760 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; Live pig 2511 closed at 13840 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; Live pig 2601 closed at 14145 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [33] - Spot: The price of Henan live pigs was 13780 yuan/ton, unchanged [33] - Spread: The live pig 2509 basis was 20 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the 9 - 11 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [33] - **Market Logic** - In August, the planned出栏 volume of large farms increased, demand growth was limited, and the spot market underperformed expectations. The reserve purchase policy has been implemented, but supply pressure needs multiple rounds of reserve purchases to ease [35] - **Trend Intensity** - Live pig trend intensity: 0 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: PK510 closed at 8008 yuan/ton with a 0.40% increase; PK511 closed at 7802 yuan/ton with a 0.64% increase [37] - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8200 yuan/ton, unchanged [37] - Spread: The Liaoning 308 common peanut basis was 192 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 206 yuan/ton [37] - **Spot Market Focus** - In Henan, the volume of new peanuts on the market was small, demand was weak, and prices were mostly weak [38] - **Trend Intensity** - Peanut trend intensity: 0 [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved significantly, while the domestic soybean has obvious inventory - building pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stocking phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oils and fats sector, the price of palm oil is supported, and the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil are stable. Corn spot prices are expected to decline, and the 01 - contract corn has limited downside. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase, and the near - term pressure is obvious. Peanut prices are stable in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the new season. Egg prices are under pressure due to high supply, and apple prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [5][10][17][25][31][35][43][53][59] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.73% to 1067.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.17% to 296.6 dollars per short ton [2] - **Relevant Information**: USDA data shows changes in US soybean and soybean meal export net sales; Pro Farmer predicts an increase in soybean pod numbers in some regions; IGC slightly increases the global soybean production forecast for 2025/26 to 4.30 billion tons (year - on - year + 1%); My Agri data shows the soybean crushing volume, inventory, and soybean meal inventory situation [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, with reduced supply pressure in the US, potential price correction in Brazil, and improved export pressure in Argentina. The domestic soybean has high arrivals and crushing volume, with obvious inventory - building pressure [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal are recommended; for arbitrage, expand the MRM05 spread; for options, buy call options [6] Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price fell 0.22 (- 1.33%) to 16.36 cents per pound, and London white sugar price fell 6.4 (- 1.31%) to 482.9 dollars per ton [7] - **Important Information**: SCA Brasil data shows a decrease in the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region this season; China's customs data shows the import volume of syrup and premixed powder; domestic sugar quotes in different regions are provided [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. The domestic sugar price is affected by the international price and is expected to follow the international trend [10] - **Position Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 5500 - 5700; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [11][12][13] Oils and Fats - **External Market Situation**: CBOT US soybean oil主力 price changed by - 0.52% to 51.41 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil主力 price changed by 0.71% to 4529 ringgit per ton [16] - **Relevant Information**: ITS data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20; Indonesia plans to increase palm oil production; Pro Farmer provides soybean pod numbers in some regions; Australian rapeseed production forecast is stable; the US Soybean Association urges to reopen the Chinese market [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, but the Indonesian price provides support. Domestic soybean imports and crushing volume are decreasing, and the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil are stable [17] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short - term oils and fats may correct, with limited correction range; for arbitrage, the YP01 spread may rebound, and the P15 spread can be expanded after correction; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [20] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December主力 contract rebounding 1.7% to 411.5 cents per bushel [21] - **Important Information**: USDA drought report shows the drought situation in US soybean and corn planting areas; Mysteel data shows the inventory and consumption of corn and corn starch [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Corn spot prices are expected to decline, and the 01 - contract corn has limited downside [25] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the external December corn and the 01 - contract corn at the bottom; for arbitrage, expand the spread between November corn and starch; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [25][26][27] Live Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Live pig prices have slightly declined in some regions; piglet and sow prices have changed; agricultural product wholesale price indices and pork prices are provided [29] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of live pigs has slightly improved, but the future supply pressure is expected to increase, with obvious near - term pressure [31] - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, buy far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [32] Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are provided; most oil mills are in a shutdown state, waiting for new peanuts; peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable [33] - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut prices are stable in the short - term, but the new - season supply is expected to be sufficient due to the expected increase in planting area [35] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the October peanut contract at high prices and currently wait and see; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8300 option [36][37][38] Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas have declined; the number of laying hens in production has increased; egg sales volume has decreased; inventory has increased; and profit has changed [40][41][42] - **Trading Logic**: The supply of eggs is high, and the short - term bearish logic holds [43] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [43][46][47] Apples - **Important Information**: Apple inventory in the main production areas has decreased; import and export volumes have changed; apple prices are stable, and the profit of apple storage has declined [49][50][51] - **Trading Logic**: The current apple inventory is low, the demand is in the off - season, and the new - season production is expected to be similar to this season. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [53] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect wide - range fluctuations; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [54][55] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton fell, with the主力 contract falling 0.06 (0.09%) to 67.47 cents per pound [56] - **Important Information**: Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listing volumes are provided; CFTC data shows the change in unfixed call sales of ICE cotton [57][58] - **Trading Logic**: The short - term impact of tariffs may weaken, and the supply of cotton is tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [59] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a slightly stronger trend with limited upside; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [60]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil & Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply and demand, price trends, and policy impacts. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as considering buying at low prices for some products and being cautious about market uncertainties [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures contracts decreased with increasing positions. Short - term auction of domestic soybeans brought supply pressure, and weak demand depressed prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rebounded from a low level. US soybean prices were strong despite high - record yields due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Short - term attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic futures market continued to decline with decreasing positions. Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern emerged due to biodiesel policies. In China, the supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 next year due to US tariff policies. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops. The relationship between US soybeans and domestic futures has weakened. If no trade agreement is reached by the end of this year, domestic soybean meal prices may rise. The medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean prices were strong due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Attention should be paid to the China - US soybean trade relationship. The US EPA's policy on small refineries may cause structural adjustments in biofuel demand. Indonesia's policies on palm oil may drive up prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in the production cycle. In the long - term, the development trend of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia remains. Investors can consider buying soybean and palm oil at low prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil price rose while the rapeseed meal price fell. The vegetable oil sector was boosted by the overnight overseas market. The demand for rapeseed oil in the biofuel fields of the US and the EU is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is tight, and futures prices may continue to rise [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures contract showed a short - term adjustment trend. The auction of imported corn by CGSGB had a low success rate. The supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient. The weather in domestic corn - producing areas is favorable, and new - season production may increase. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The government announced a central frozen - pork purchase and storage plan, which led to a higher opening of the futures market. The supply of live pigs in the second half of the year is expected to be high, and the spot price may continue to decline. The policy aims to promote industry capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet. Attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policies [8]. Eggs - Egg futures prices dropped rapidly in the past month due to over - capacity in the industry and weak prices during the peak season. The industry has been in losses for four months. If egg prices remain weak during the peak season, there may be a significant capacity reduction, which could support prices next year. Investors can consider buying at low prices [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract's main funds are shifting to forward contracts, with the far - month 1 and 3 - month contracts under pressure. Spot market prices show different trends in different regions, and the futures price is in a short - term stalemate after a rapid decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to rise. CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. In the domestic market, although there are rumors of state - reserve soybean auctions, the import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly strong, limiting the decline [1]. - Oils are expected to rise. BMD palm oil fell for the third day on Thursday, while US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed rose. In the domestic market, the prices of the three major oils declined, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation may improve [1]. - Eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. The futures price continued to decline, and the spot price is under supply - side pressure in the short term. Although there may be a seasonal rebound in the future, the high is likely to be lower than last year [1][2]. - Hogs are expected to fluctuate. The futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The supply is abundant, but as the high - temperature weather subsides, demand may recover, supporting the price [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The 9 - month contract is approaching the delivery month with reduced positions, and the far - month contracts are under pressure. Northeast corn prices are slightly weak, Jiangsu's new - season corn has a low price, North China prices are stable with limited adjustments, and the sales area prices are generally stable with some ports rebounding. The futures price is in a short - term stalemate after a rapid decline [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday. In the domestic market, there are rumors of state - reserve soybean auctions, but the import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly strong, limiting the decline. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in positive spreads between months [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for three consecutive days, while US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed rose. In the domestic market, the prices of the three major oils declined, and the inventory pressure is increasing. If the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation may improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The futures price continued to decline on Thursday, and the spot price is under supply - side pressure in the short term. Although there may be a seasonal rebound in the future, the high is likely to be lower than last year. Attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The supply is abundant, but as the high - temperature weather subsides, demand may recover, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2]. Market Information - **USDA Drought Report**: As of the week ending August 19, about 9% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 3%, 7% last year), and about 5% of US corn - growing areas were affected (previously 4%, 6% last year) [3]. - **IGC Monthly Report**: The 2025/26 global soybean production forecast is slightly increased to 4.30 billion tons (year - on - year +1%), and the trade volume forecast is increased by 1 million tons to a record high (year - on - year +2%). The 2025/26 global corn production forecast is increased by 23 million tons to 12.99 billion tons, the trade volume is increased by 5 million tons to 192 million tons, the consumption is increased by 13 million tons to 12.85 billion tons, and the ending inventory is increased by 16 million tons to 2.94 billion tons [3]. - **India's Rapeseed Oil Purchase**: India purchased a batch of rapeseed oil to be delivered in August, the first in nearly five years, as the domestic price reached a three - and - a - half - year high [4]. - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons, despite increased production and accelerated exports. In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 35.4% month - on - month [4]. - **China's Central Reserve Frozen Pork Purchase**: Huachuwang announced a 10,000 - ton central reserve frozen pork purchase and auction on August 25, 2025 [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The content provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis is given [5][6][7][11] - **Contract Basis**: The content provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis is given [13][14][17][24] Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F0243534 and Z0001262, and her email is wangn@ebfcn.com.cn [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than a decade of experience in the futures industry and many honors. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F3048706 and Z0013637, and her email is houxl@ebfcn.com.cn [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F3032578 and Z0013544, and her email is konghl@ebfcn.com.cn [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] 2. Core View of the Report - The soybeans market is waiting for demand, with new beans expected to be in good growth and a potential increase in production. The peanut market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with new peanuts gradually coming onto the market but facing limited downstream acceptance of high prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 3999.00 yuan/ton, down 37.00 yuan/ton (-0.92%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 261, up 37 (+32.14%) from the previous day. The prices of soybeans in Northeast China remained stable, and the market was waiting for new beans to be listed [1] - Market News: Northeast soybean prices were stable, and there was limited trading in the auction of state - reserve resources. New beans were growing well, and a bumper harvest was expected. As downstream demand increased and consumption of soy products recovered, the demand side was expected to support spot prices [1][2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7762.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8420.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan/ton (+1.94%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 338.00, up 20.00 (+6.29%) from the previous day [3] - Market News: The price of old peanuts was stable, and inventory was being cleared. New peanuts were priced higher than expected, and most oil mills were waiting and seeing. The market was trading lightly, and food processors were mainly consuming inventory [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three major commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core Views - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight according to USDA, but the lack of abnormal weather in major producing areas makes the market skeptical. In China, short - term supply tightness supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand creates pressure. Mid - term, good new cotton growth may suppress prices [2] - For sugar, Brazilian data shows a trade - off between sugar production and other factors. In China, slow domestic sales, high import profits, and large imports are increasing domestic spot pressure. A possible new - season delay may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [5][6] - Regarding pulp, supply pressure remains high due to increased imports and domestic capacity. Weak demand both in Europe, the US, and China, along with low terminal demand and high inventory, means the market is likely to remain weak in the short - term [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Cotton 2601 futures closed at 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,038 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 15, India's new - season cotton planting area was 10.8 million hectares, a 2.7% decrease from the previous year. In Mato Grosso, the picking progress was 40%, 17 percentage points behind the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending stocks led to a short - term increase in US cotton prices, but the market is skeptical. Domestically, tight supply in the short - term supports prices, but weak downstream demand creates pressure. Mid - term, new cotton listing may suppress prices [2] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. Low inventory and the approaching textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industry factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Sugar 2601 futures closed at 5688 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5855 yuan/ton, also unchanged [4] - In July 2025, China's sugar - related imports totaled 7.43 tons, and the domestic refined sugar production in July was 41 tons, a 64.7% year - on - year increase [4] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar data shows a complex situation. In China, slow domestic sales, high import profits, and large imports are increasing domestic spot pressure [5][6] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. Short - term price is likely to fluctuate within a range due to supply pressure, but a possible new - season delay may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Pulp 2511 futures closed at 5130 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply pressure remains high due to increased imports and domestic capacity. Weak demand both in Europe, the US, and China, along with low terminal demand and high inventory, means the market is likely to remain weak [7][8] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. With no significant improvement in the market fundamentals, short - term prices are likely to remain in a low - level oscillation [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The weak reality is reflected in high inventory and slow sales in the spot market, while the strong expectation is shown by fewer purchases in the fourth quarter, export drive, possible slowdown in oil mill crushing, and impending inventory reduction. Short - term callback space is expected to be limited, and it is still bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce domestic purchases from Canada. However, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is seasonally high, and traders are importing from other countries as a supplement. The price is expected to fluctuate, with limited room for further decline [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production growth has slowed, and export demand is good. Domestic inventory has increased, and the basis is under short - term pressure. There is a short - term adjustment need, but support exists. Hold partial long positions after partial profit - taking [2]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: The possible soybean reserve release and US soybean import rotation (unconfirmed) have led to a decline in soybean No. 2 and soybean meal. Soybean meal is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation, and the short - term decline is limited. Consider going long after stabilization [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and weak consumption have led to a decline in rapeseed meal prices. However, there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices [2]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The prices are expected to continue to be under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply from South America, increased US planting area, and continuous release of imported corn. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: New domestic soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply. The price is expected to be under pressure, but downstream replenishment during the back - to - school season may provide support. Hold short positions [5]. - **Peanuts**: The new season is expected to have increased production and lower costs, putting pressure on prices. Consider holding short positions for the 11 - contract [6]. - **Hogs**: The implementation of new regulations may affect cross - provincial transportation and increase secondary fattening costs. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the 11 - contract and consider long - term long positions after capacity reduction is confirmed [6]. - **Eggs**: The current price is at a low level, and consumption is in the off - season. After the cost collapse risk is partially released, it is recommended to wait and see for the 09 - contract and consider going long for the 11 - contract at low prices [7]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate, hold short positions; Soybean No. 2 09 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Peanut 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions; Soybean oil 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see [10]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Palm 01 - contract is expected to be bullish, reduce long positions [10]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Rapeseed meal 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, go long at low prices [10]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions cautiously; Starch 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions cautiously [10]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hog 11 - contract is expected to rebound, hold long positions; Egg 10 - contract is expected to find a bottom, wait and see [10]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Oilseeds**: For soybean No. 1 9 - 1, soybean No. 2 9 - 1, and peanut 10 - 11, wait and see; For soybean meal 3 - 5, conduct positive spread operations [11][12]. - **Oils**: For soybean oil 9 - 1, rapeseed oil 9 - 1, and palm oil 9 - 1, wait and see; For 09 soybean oil - palm oil, conduct bearish operations; For 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, conduct bullish operations; For 09 rapeseed oil - palm oil, wait and see [12]. - **Proteins**: For 09 soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is in a low - level oscillation; For 09 soybean oil - meal ratio, go long; For 09 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, wait and see [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: For 11 starch - corn, wait and see [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: For hog 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, conduct positive spread operations at low prices [12]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis changes for various commodities such as soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, peanuts, etc., which can be used for basis and spot - futures trading analysis [13]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including to - shore premium, futures prices, CNF prices, and import duty - paid prices [15]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as soybean port inventory, oil mill soybean meal inventory, etc. [17]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [17]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [18]. 3. Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: Displays the daily data of hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and basis in different regions [19][20]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the weekly key data of hogs and eggs, such as breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and supply - demand data [21][22][23]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: Includes charts of hog and egg futures prices, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices, chicken苗 prices, etc. [25][27][28][30][32][33][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: Charts show Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import profit, domestic inventory, and price spreads [36][38][39]. - **Soybean Oil**: Charts display US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic oil mill operating rate, and inventory [48][50][51]. - **Peanuts**: Charts present peanut arrival, shipment, processing profit, and inventory [53][54]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Charts show corn futures prices, spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [57][58]. - **Corn Starch**: Charts display corn starch futures prices, spot prices, operating rate, inventory, and processing profit [60][61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profit [63][65][67][69]. - **Soybean Meal**: Charts present US soybean growth rates, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory [71]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It shows the historical volatility of various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [73][74]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils Presents the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [76][77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans Meal**: Short - term adjustment [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans Meal**: With neutral climate expectations and smooth US soybean planting weather, China's soybean and beans meal are in the inventory accumulation stage. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report adjusted the final soybean production and ending stocks downward. Beans meal is under pressure for adjustment, and short - long opportunities after adjustment can be considered in the next one to two weeks [1][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but there is a risk of reduced yield in Canada. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with improved China - Australia trade, have cooled market speculation. After adjustment, short - long opportunities after stabilization can be considered, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies are favorable for palm oil consumption expectations, and China and India have purchasing needs. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [1][8]. - **Cotton**: The short - term soil moisture of US cotton has improved, which is negative for the market, but the international cotton price valuation is low. Zheng cotton's short - term focus is on supply before new cotton listing. Buying on dips can be considered [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: The expected total production of Xinjiang southern gray dates in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be between 50 - 58 million tons, with a certain reduction. Before November, the market speculation around the opening price is long, and short - long opportunities can be considered [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: The current supply pressure is high, but the incremental space is shrinking. Long - position opportunities for far - month contracts can be considered, and short - selling on a short - term basis is not recommended blindly [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Beans Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of beans meal (main contract daily closing) is 3113 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 1.49% from the previous day; the national average spot price is 3097.14 yuan/ton, down 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [3]. - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 892.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.20 million tons from last week; the beans meal inventory is 101.47 million tons, an increase of 1.12 million tons or 1.12% from last week [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities after adjustment in the next one to two weeks, paying attention to the final US soybean area and yield data [5]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract daily closing) is 2561 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan or 2.51% from the previous day; the national average spot price is 2627.89 yuan/ton, down 47.37 yuan or 1.77% [6]. - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 11.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from last week [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities after adjustment and stabilization, but be cautious when chasing long positions [7]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 61.73 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons or 2.92% from last week [8]. - **Export Information**: Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, are 869,780 tons, an increase of 17.5% from the same period last month [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a buying - on - dips strategy, paying attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil this month [8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The main contract of Zheng cotton, CF2509, increases by 0.11% to 14030 yuan/ton; the domestic spot price drops by 0.19% to 15211 yuan/ton; the main contract of ICE cotton drops by 0.19% to 67.47 cents/pound [11]. - **Supply and Demand Information**: In the US, the drought area in the cotton - growing region expands, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton increases by 2% to 55%. In China, Xinjiang's new cotton production is expected to exceed 740 million tons, and the import volume in July is 5 million tons. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreases by 15.06 million tons to 185.61 million tons [11][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider，buying on dips due to the low international cotton price valuation and the supply - tight situation before new cotton listing [13]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, increases by 0.39% to 11470 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production and Inventory Information**: The expected total production of Xinjiang southern gray dates in the 2025/26 season is between 50 - 58 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreases by 167 tons to 9519 tons [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities as the market speculation around the opening price is long before November [15]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, decreases by 0.18% to 13765 yuan/ton; the domestic live pig spot price drops by 0.07% to 13820 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand Information**: The planned August slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises increases by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of newborn piglets from January to July increases, but the increment of breeding sows slows down. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [16][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not blindly short - sell on a short - term basis. Consider establishing long positions for far - month contracts on dips [18].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose significantly, and DCE soybean meal may rebound; DCE soybeans are expected to fluctuate in a rebound [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybeans is 0 (only referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day - session of the reporting day) [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices** - DCE soybeans 2511 closed at 3999 yuan/ton during the day - session, down 23 yuan (-0.57%), and 3995 yuan/ton at night - session, down 18 yuan (-0.45%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3113 yuan/ton during the day - session, down 33 yuan (-1.05%), and 3105 yuan/ton at night - session, down 23 yuan (-0.74%) [1]. - CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 1055 cents/bushel, up 19.5 cents (+1.88%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 293.8 dollars/short - ton, down 3.2 dollars (-1.08%) [1]. - **Spot Basis** - In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal has different ranges and changes for different months, mostly remaining flat or with minor adjustments [1]. - In East China, the spot basis of soybean meal also shows different levels for different months, remaining mostly flat [1]. - In South China, the spot basis of soybean meal varies by region and month, with some prices down 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data** - The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.8 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 9.55 million tons two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was 97.4 million tons per week on the previous trading week, compared with 96.09 million tons two trading weeks ago [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - On August 21, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.9%, driven by short - covering and bargain - hunting. However, the good growth of the US soybean crop and the heavy supply outlook still overshadow the market [3]. - The results of the third - day of the Midwest crop inspection showed that the soybean yield potential in Illinois and western Iowa was above average. Traders are waiting for the report of the fourth - day inspection [3]. - The USDA's weekly export sales report showed that for the week ending August 14, 2025, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season decreased by 5,700 tons, while the net sales in the 2025/26 season were 1,142,600 tons, exceeding market expectations [3].