Summary of the Conference Call for China Coal Energy Industry Overview - **Industry**: Coal and Coal Chemical Industry - **Company**: China Coal Energy Key Points and Arguments Coal Chemical Capacity Expansion - The Yulin Phase II project is expected to be operational by the end of 2026, with a supporting methanol production capacity of 2.2 million tons, leading to a total methanol output of 4 million tons by 2027 [2][3] Coal Production Stability - The company plans to produce 135 million tons of coal in 2025, with only about 10 million tons for self-use, indicating significant external supply potential [2][6] - The production target for 2026 is expected to remain around 130 million tons, with minimal impact from industry policies aimed at curbing overproduction [2][6] Cost Reduction Exceeding Expectations - Costs are projected to continue declining in Q4 2025, driven by efficiency improvements and the use of special reserve funds, maintaining a low-cost position within the industry [2][7] Pricing Mechanism Improvement - The price difference between spot and long-term contracts has exceeded 50 RMB/ton, with policies steering pit prices closer to market levels, positively impacting sales [2][7] Trade Coal Business Recovery - The profit margin for buyout trade coal remains stable at 1.1%-1.3%, with market demand and annual plans driving business volume [2][10] Additional Important Insights Shareholder Returns - The dividend payout ratio has increased to 35% for 2024, with plans for stable and potentially higher dividends in the future [2][9] Cost Structure - The unit sales cost for polyolefins is approximately 6,000 RMB/ton, primarily driven by raw material costs [2][4][5] Coal Supply Dynamics - The company’s self-supplied coal is relatively small, with a projected self-use of about 10 million tons in 2025, allowing for substantial external supply [2][6] Regulatory Environment - The company is less affected by the "check overproduction" policies due to its status as a large state-owned enterprise, which carries a responsibility for stable production [2][6] Future Coal Price Expectations - The long-term pricing mechanism is expected to continue until at least 2028, providing stability and predictability for the company's operations [2][16][17] Market Dynamics - The company anticipates that the volume of buyout trade coal may increase in the next 1-2 years due to new regulatory requirements that raise entry barriers for coal agents [2][12][13] Risk Management - The long-term contract mechanism helps mitigate the impact of price volatility on the company's operations, enhancing its risk resilience [2][17] Performance Outlook - The company refrains from providing quantitative forecasts for Q1 2026 due to incomplete data but emphasizes stable operational performance [2][18]

========= - The report tracks the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices as of March 4, 2026, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index[2][15] - The dividend yield comparison of industry constituent stocks shows that the banking, coal, and steel industries rank top three in terms of dividend yield[3][16] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices as of March 4, 2026, are provided, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index having a remaining dividend yield of 2.80%, the CSI 300 Index 2.14%, the CSI 500 Index 1.14%, and the CSI 1000 Index 0.89%[4][18] - The futures contracts' premium and discount tracking as of March 4, 2026, shows the annualized discount rates for IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts[5][14] - The methodology for calculating index dividend points is introduced, including the estimation of constituent stock weights, net profit prediction, dividend payout ratio prediction, and ex-dividend date prediction[10][44][45][47] - The accuracy of the index dividend point calculation is analyzed, showing that the model has high prediction accuracy for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and CSI 300 Index, with errors around 5 points, and slightly larger errors for the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index, around 10 points[62][66] - The report includes charts showing the historical premium and discount levels of main futures contracts, the dividend progress of major indices, and the prediction accuracy of index dividend points[19][21][23][37][38][39][42][63][69][71][75][77][79] =========

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) with an updated target price of HKD 39.00, reflecting a potential upside of 10.2% based on the current price of HKD 35.40 [4][6][17]. Core Views - The company's FY25 net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 63.8% to AUD 44 million, primarily due to increased operating expenses and depreciation/amortization [1]. - Despite the profit decline, the average cash operating cost per ton of coal fell by 1.1% to AUD 92, nearing the lower end of the company's guidance [1]. - The average selling price of coal dropped by 17.0% to AUD 146 per ton, with thermal coal prices down 15.0% and metallurgical coal prices down 26.4% [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in coal prices and sales volume in the long term, driven by increased energy demand from the AI industry [2]. Financial Summary - For FY25, total revenue decreased by 13.3% to AUD 594.9 million, slightly above the forecast of AUD 584 million [1]. - The company expects FY26 coal production to be between 36.5 million and 40.5 million tons, with cash operating costs projected at AUD 90-98 per ton [3]. - The forecast for FY26 and FY27 net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 28.1% and 9.4%, respectively [4]. - The report outlines a financial outlook with total revenue projected to increase to AUD 619.8 million in FY26 and AUD 636.0 million in FY27 [5]. Market and Operational Insights - The report highlights that Yancoal's coal sales volume increased by 1.1% to 38.1 million tons in FY25, with thermal coal sales slightly declining and metallurgical coal sales rising by 17.3% [1]. - The company’s capital expenditure for FY26 is projected to be between AUD 750 million and AUD 900 million, consistent with previous spending levels [3]. - The report indicates that the development of the AI industry is expected to bolster long-term coal prices and sales volumes, with conservative estimates suggesting a 2.4% and 1.8% increase in average coal prices for FY26 and FY27, respectively [2].

- The "Six-Cycle Model" identifies economic phases using the three-month difference in medium- and long-term loan pulses (TTM YoY). As of January, the model entered Phase 6, "Monetary Expansion," indicating a defensive allocation strategy[7][11] - The "Analyst Industry Prosperity Index" evaluates industry performance expectations. The index shows that the cyclical and growth sectors are in an expansion phase, with the cyclical sector entering this phase in January 2025[12][13] - The "Industry Relative Strength Index (RS)" ranks industries based on cross-sectional returns. Industries with RS > 90% by April are likely to lead the market. As of February 2026, seven industries, including non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, showed RS > 90% signals[15][16] - The "Style Factor Analysis" evaluates factors like small-cap, value, quality, and growth based on three metrics: odds, trend, and crowding. Small-cap and value factors scored highest, while growth and quality factors showed weaker trends[30][32][36][39] - The "Industry Configuration Model" uses two approaches: the "Industry Prosperity Model" (high prosperity + strong trend, avoiding high crowding) and the "Industry Trend Model" (strong trend + low crowding, avoiding low prosperity). March recommendations include cyclical sectors like chemicals and coal[46][48][50] - The "Inventory Cycle Reversal Model" identifies industries in recovery phases with low inventory pressure. Current recommendations include oil services, coal chemicals, and rare metals. Historical backtests show strong absolute and excess returns[55][56][57] - The "Odds and Win Rate Strategies" include three models: "Odds-Enhanced," "Win Rate-Enhanced," and "Odds + Win Rate." These models optimize asset allocation based on risk budgets. Historical performance shows annualized returns of 6.7%-7.9% with low drawdowns[58][61][64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - As of the close on March 4, 2026, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for the third consecutive day. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%. On the other hand, tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures also declined significantly. The prices and trends of various futures contracts were affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and seasonal factors [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gainers**: Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for three consecutive days. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%, and plastics and propylene rose nearly 4% [5]. - **Losers**: Tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures fell over 4%, 4%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, also declined, while most treasury bond futures rose, except for the 30-year treasury bond futures [5][6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:19 on March 4, funds flowed into aluminum, fuel oil, and 10-year treasury bond futures, while large amounts of funds flowed out of gold, CSI, and CSI 1000 futures [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper prices opened low and rose slightly but remained weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased inflation expectations and reduced the likelihood of the Fed's interest rate cuts, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. It is expected to reach a record high in March. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper is expected to rise, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream consumers, and the demand for copper products is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased. Production is expected to decline in February due to seasonal and holiday factors. The overall inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals are short-term tight. The conflict between the United States and Iran has affected the delivery of energy storage batteries in the Middle East, and the export of terminals has been impacted. Although the peak season is approaching, the increase in demand is limited, and the price has some support [10]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and further production increase plans are to be determined. EIA data showed a significant build-up of crude oil inventories in the United States. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have led to disruptions in oil transportation and production. Iraq has cut production, and Qatar has stopped LNG production. Trump's offer to provide insurance and escort for oil tankers has caused oil prices to fluctuate. It is expected that oil prices will remain strong in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a significant impact on oil price volatility [11][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased slightly last week and is at a low level compared to previous years. In March, domestic asphalt production is expected to increase month-on-month but decrease year-on-year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the overall demand remains weak. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, but the market is worried about a shortage of raw materials in March due to geopolitical factors. It is expected that asphalt prices will follow the increase in crude oil prices [13][15]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased seasonally, and the enterprise开工率 remained at a relatively low level. The proportion of standard-grade wire production increased. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has boosted the price of PP. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. It is expected that PP prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [16]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The开工率 of plastic increased after the restart of some maintenance devices and is currently at a neutral to high level. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased seasonally, and the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has had a positive impact on the price of plastic. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. The import of PE from Iran accounts for a small proportion of the total, but the import from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion. It is expected that plastic prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [17][18]. 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region continued to decline. The开工率 of PVC increased and is at a neutral to high level. After the Spring Festival, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased but is still lower than the same period last year. The export of PVC is expected to be low in March due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the anti-subsidy investigation by India. The social inventory of PVC is still high, and the real estate market continues to adjust. Although the PVC market has a weak reality, it has strong expectations due to policy and maintenance expectations. It is expected that PVC prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [19]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices opened high and closed low. Domestic mines are gradually resuming work, and the inventory of coking coal mines has increased. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. After the Spring Festival, the production of molten iron in steel mills has increased slightly, but the reduction of emissions during the Two Sessions may affect short-term production. The real estate market has introduced some stimulus policies, but the performance of the terminal market still needs to be observed. After the impact of geopolitical conflicts in Iran on the coal market is realized, the price is expected to return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand and will be under pressure if the macro sentiment remains stable [20][21]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices opened high, fluctuated, and closed slightly higher. The trading volume decreased, and the price was relatively stable. The daily production of urea has reached around 220,000 tons, and there are no long-term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term. After the Lantern Festival, compound fertilizer factories have resumed work, but the开工 rate in Hebei has been affected by environmental protection. The inventory of urea has started to decrease due to the continuation of agricultural demand and the increase in industrial demand. Although the international urea price is affected by the situation in the Middle East, it has little impact on the domestic market. The price of urea is expected to be range-bound, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a price increase driven by the energy and chemical sector [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) with an updated target price of HKD 39.00, reflecting a potential upside of 10.2% based on the current price of HKD 35.40 [4][6]. Core Views - The company's FY25 net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 63.8% to AUD 44 million, primarily due to increased operating expenses and depreciation/amortization [1]. - Despite the profit decline, the average cash operating cost per ton of coal fell by 1.1% to AUD 92, nearing the lower end of the company's guidance [1]. - The average selling price of coal dropped by 17.0% to AUD 146 per ton, with thermal coal prices down 15.0% and metallurgical coal prices down 26.4% [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in coal prices and sales volume in the long term, driven by increased energy demand from the AI industry [2]. - The company has set achievable operational guidance for FY26, including coal production of 36.5-40.5 million tons and cash operating costs of AUD 90-98 per ton [3]. Financial Summary - For FY25, total revenue decreased by 13.3% to AUD 594.9 million, while net profit fell significantly [5]. - The report projects a rebound in net profit for FY26 and FY27, with expected growth rates of 28.1% and 9.4%, respectively [4]. - Key financial metrics for FY26 include projected revenue of AUD 619.8 million and net profit of AUD 563 million, with earnings per share expected to rise to AUD 0.43 [5][15].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号: F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号: Z0013101 助理研究员: 陈星宇 期货从业资格号: F03146061 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2026/3/4 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1097.00 | -30.00↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1672.00 | -22.00↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 687628.00 | +2097.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 41314.00 | -2144.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Since Iran was attacked, most futures varieties have shown significant price increases. The market is highly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The prices of various commodities are expected to remain highly volatile, and the risk premium may quickly decline if the geopolitical situation eases [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Market - On the evening of March 3rd, the exchange implemented risk - control measures such as limiting positions to 50 lots for the container shipping route to Europe to suppress excessive speculation. On March 3rd, Trump claimed that the US Navy would escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, and the market began to bet that the conflict would not escalate indefinitely. On March 4th, the main contract of the container shipping route to Europe opened with a daily limit and then declined [9]. Crude Oil Market - On February 28th, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about one - third of global oil trade. If the Strait is completely blocked, Middle Eastern oil - producing countries can only digest about 25 days of stranded production. Different countries have different strategic oil reserves. The IEA has 1 billion barrels of emergency reserves. If the conflict is short - term, Brent oil prices will be in the range of $80 - 90 per barrel; if it is long - term, prices may exceed $100 per barrel. INE oil prices have risen more than Brent and WTI due to China's higher dependence on the Strait [14]. Chemicals Market Fuel Oil - Crude oil is the core raw material of fuel oil, with a cost accounting for 70% - 90%. Iran is the world's second - largest exporter of high - sulfur fuel oil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will reduce China's fuel oil imports. Although the actual supply - demand pattern is weak, geopolitical risks are the main factor driving prices. It is expected to remain strong in the short term, but the risk premium may decline rapidly after the Strait is reopened [17]. Asphalt - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran boosts asphalt prices from both supply and cost aspects. China's asphalt import dependence is about 10%, and the Middle East accounts for about 49% of imports. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects supply and increases production costs. It is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a risk of rapid decline in the risk premium after the Strait is reopened [20][21]. LPG - China's LPG supply is mainly domestic, but imports are the marginal variable. The Middle East situation threatens supply from two aspects: blocking the Strait of Hormuz and reducing production due to oil production cuts. The domestic LPG price has been significantly affected by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to pay attention to Middle East oil production and Strait navigation. The price will be highly volatile, and the geopolitical premium may be squeezed out if the situation eases [24][25]. Methanol - The domestic methanol supply - demand pattern is slightly loose. The production and shipment of Iranian methanol plants are affected. It is recommended to pay attention to Iranian plant dynamics. The price will be highly volatile, and the geopolitical premium may be squeezed out if the situation eases. The exchange has adjusted the minimum order volume to limit speculation [28]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Polyethylene - Aromatic series benefit from cost - push and raw material supply shortages. Polyethylene has cost and import advantages. The supply - demand situation of pure benzene has improved slightly, styrene has a healthy supply - demand situation, and polyethylene has a loose supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the Strait of Hormuz blockade time and exchange policies [31][32]. Propylene - Polypropylene - The supply of LPG is expected to shrink, which will affect propylene production. The market is in a stalemate. Polypropylene has strong cost support and active market speculation. It is recommended to pay attention to Middle East oil production and Strait navigation, and the price will be highly volatile [36][37]. Polyester Series (PX - EG - PTA - PR - PF) - The core logic is that geopolitical conflicts lead to cost increases in PX and MEG, which are then transmitted downstream. The price is dominated by geopolitics. EG has the greatest price elasticity, followed by PX, and PTA, PF, and PR are more passive followers. Potential risks include geopolitical easing and downstream negative feedback. It is recommended to pay attention to the Middle East situation and be cautious when chasing high prices of PTA [38][39][40]. Rubber Series - Natural rubber has fallen slightly, with supply - side news limited and downstream demand not optimistic. Synthetic rubber has strong cost support but high inventory and low demand, which may limit its upward space. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and hedge with put options, and those not in the market should wait and see [44]. Coal Market - The impact of the US - Iran war on domestic coal prices is not obvious. The price of coking coal futures is affected by the coal - coke - steel industry chain. The substitution effect of coal due to rising oil prices is not obvious, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. The marginal impact of Indonesia's export limit is weakening, and the port coal price has limited upward space. The stock market and futures market volatility has increased due to the international situation [46][49][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has significantly driven up coking coal futures prices, with a notable increase observed [1]. - As of March 2, 2026, the comprehensive Chinese coking coal price index was reported at 1457.56 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 28.54 CNY/ton, or 1.52% [1][8]. - The total coking coal inventory at three major ports (Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian) decreased by 14.41 million tons, a decline of 5.15% compared to the previous month [1][14]. Summary by Sections Coking Coal Prices - The coking coal price index in China decreased to 1457.56 CNY/ton, down by 28.54 CNY/ton or 1.52% from the previous month [8]. - The price of main coking coal at the port of Jingtang from Australia was reported at 1570.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 50.00 CNY/ton or 3.09% [10]. Inventory Levels - The total coking coal inventory at three ports was 2.6547 million tons, down 14.41 million tons or 5.15% month-on-month [14]. - The inventory of coking coal at 247 steel mills was 7.9246 million tons, a decrease of 21.90 million tons or 2.69% from the previous month [18]. - The inventory at 230 independent coking plants was 8.2946 million tons, down 205.88 million tons or 19.89% month-on-month, while the average available days of inventory decreased to 12.30 days, down 3.40 days or 21.66% [18]. Production Metrics - The capacity utilization rate for all independent coking enterprises was reported at 74.36%, a decrease of 2.50 percentage points month-on-month [18]. - Coking coal production showed an increase, while pig iron and crude steel production experienced declines [24][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, short - term policy expectations support the market, but weak fundamentals limit the upside. Wait for policy implementation after the Two Sessions and inventory depletion speed [3] - For iron ore, non - mainstream ore shipments remain high, suppressing price upside. The Iran situation provides short - term support, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Iron water production may first decline and then rise due to the Two Sessions' production restrictions, and low - price restocking by steel mills provides a bottom support [22] - For coal and coke, from March to April, it is the terminal demand verification period. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic mine resumption" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [33] - For ferroalloys, short - term silicon manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but high inventories may lead to hedging. Silicon iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but its upside is limited by weak downstream fundamentals [50] - For soda ash, there are rumors of a major factory's overhaul. Supply may be affected, and inventory is better than expected. The upside of the price is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside requires inventory accumulation. The long - term supply is expected to be high [69] - For glass, actual demand has not returned, and the market is in the recovery period. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price upside, and demand needs to be verified [93] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed slightly compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3131 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from March 3 [4] - **Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed. For instance, the rebar 01 - 05 month spread was 60 yuan/ton on March 4, up 2 yuan from March 3 [4] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions were reported. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton on March 4, up 1 yuan from March 3 [9] Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Non - mainstream ore shipments are high, and the Iran situation provides short - term support. Iron water production may first decline and then rise due to the Two Sessions' production restrictions, and low - price restocking by steel mills provides a bottom support [22] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased slightly compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 717.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from March 3 [23] - **Fundamentals**: Data on daily average iron water production, port throughput, and inventory were reported. For example, the daily average iron water production on February 27, 2026, was 233.28 tons, up 2.79 tons from the previous week [27] Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: From March to April, it is the terminal demand verification period. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic mine resumption" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [33] - **Prices**: The month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 203.5 yuan/ton on March 4, down 5.5 yuan from March 3 [34] - **Spot and Profit**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and import profits were reported. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1520 yuan/ton on March 4, unchanged from March 3 [38] Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Short - term silicon manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but high inventories may lead to hedging. Silicon iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but its upside is limited by weak downstream fundamentals [50] - **Data**: The daily data of silicon iron and silicon manganese, including basis, month - to - month spreads, and spot prices, were reported. For example, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 116 yuan/ton on March 3, down 2 yuan from March 2 [51] Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: There are rumors of a major factory's overhaul. Supply may be affected, and inventory is better than expected. The upside of the price is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside requires inventory accumulation. The long - term supply is expected to be high [69] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the 05 contract closed at 1203 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from March 3 [70] - **Spot and Spreads**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and price spreads were reported. For example, the heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton on March 4, unchanged from March 3 [70] Glass - **Market Outlook**: Actual demand has not returned, and the market is in the recovery period. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price upside, and demand needs to be verified [93] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the 05 contract closed at 1038 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from March 3 [94] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions were reported. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on February 27, 2026, was 103 [95]