Group 1 - The US ADP employment report for January showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, falling short of market expectations [3][12] - The US Treasury Department has maintained its debt issuance strategy, continuing its forward guidance that has been in place for two years [12] - The WTI crude oil price rose to $65 per barrel, reflecting a nearly 2% increase before retracting some gains, while Brent crude oil closed at $68.47 per barrel, up 1.14% [4][7] Group 2 - The major US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.53%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.5% and the S&P 500 declined by 0.51% [4][7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.05%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.84%, with coal stocks showing strong performance [5][7] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 0.85%, driven by strong performances in the photovoltaic and coal sectors, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.40% [6][7]

Group 1 - The second "Representative Channel" was opened during the Fifth Session of the 14th Sichuan Provincial People's Congress, where four representatives shared their stories and answered questions from reporters [5] - Representative A Zhu emphasized the importance of balancing ecological protection and industrial development, sharing successful practices in highland pastoral areas [6] - Representative Li Mao discussed transforming cultural heritage into development opportunities, highlighting a 23% increase in visitor numbers at the Salt Industry History Museum [7] Group 2 - Representative Dong Xinghong shared his experience in transforming a former coal mining area into a green space, achieving significant ecological restoration and economic benefits through solar power generation [8] - Representative Zhang Rong focused on the welfare of left-behind children, sharing her initiative to promote safety measures for vulnerable groups, including the distribution of safety wristbands [9]

截至2月4日收盘，万得央企煤炭概念指数、万得煤炭开采精选指数涨幅分别达到7.61%和7.58%，中煤 能源、恒源煤电、兖矿能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际、晋控煤业等一批个股涨停。 煤炭企业人士、研究员认为，短期内煤价或受印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口等消息的扰动。从中长期来 看，煤炭供需基本面有望持续改善，年度价格中枢有望上移。 煤炭市场已提前进入春节放假状态 从供应端来看，主产区部分民营煤矿提前进入春节假期，国有煤矿维持稳定生产以保障供应，整体产量 边际收缩。 从需求端来看，前期寒潮推动沿海电厂日耗维持高位，但随着寒潮影响减退及春节临近，南方部分工业 企业提前放假，工业用电负荷走弱，电厂日耗逐步回落，可用天数保持在15天左右的安全水平，补库压 力较小，采购以长协煤为主，对市场煤询货稀少。 另外，非电行业陆续进入假期，需求支撑减弱，仅少数库存偏低的终端存在小批量节前补库需求，未形 成规模性采购。供需两弱导致当前交易清淡，煤价持续走弱。2月4日，秦皇岛煤炭网发布最新一期环渤 海动力煤指数，报收于682元/吨，环比下行3元/吨。 在煤炭行业人士看来，当前煤炭板块受到市场热捧，更多缘于印尼方面的减产。作为全球最大的电 ...

Group 1 - The coal market is experiencing a surge, with the Wande Central Enterprise Coal Concept Index and the Wande Coal Mining Selected Index rising by 7.61% and 7.58% respectively, leading to several stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Short-term coal prices may be influenced by the suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners, while the medium to long-term outlook suggests an improvement in the coal supply-demand fundamentals, with annual price levels expected to rise [2][3] - The coal market is entering a pre-holiday state, with some private coal mines halting production for the Spring Festival, while state-owned mines maintain stable output to ensure supply, resulting in a marginal reduction in overall production [3] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that by 2025, the national output of industrial raw coal is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, marking a historical high [4] - In 2025, Shanxi Province's raw coal output is expected to be 1.305 billion tons, reflecting a growth of 2.1%, while the government report suggests that coal production will stabilize around 1.3 billion tons by 2026 [5] - The Xinjiang region's coal production is rapidly increasing, with a projected output of 553 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, although this growth rate is significantly slowing compared to previous years [5] - Analysts predict that with Indonesia's coal production targets significantly reduced for 2026, the supply contraction will strengthen, potentially leading to a return to a balanced supply-demand state and a price recovery to the range of 750 to 1000 yuan per ton [6]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising to 4102.20 points, up 0.85% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21% to 14156.27 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.40% to 3311.51 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 250.33 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Solar Industry Strength - The solar industry chain, particularly the space solar sector, continued to show strength with companies like JinkoSolar and Zhonglai Co. hitting the 20% daily limit [2] - Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical announced that the "space solar" application is still in the exploratory phase, indicating uncertainty in the industrialization process [2] - JinkoSolar highlighted that space solar energy density is 7 to 10 times higher than ground-based systems, with generation hours increasing by 4 to 7 times [2][4] Group 3: Coal Sector Activity - The coal sector was notably active, with the Shenwan Coal Industry Index rising over 7%, leading all sectors [5] - Companies such as Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy saw their stocks hit the daily limit [5] - Recent trends show a stabilization and increase in coal prices, supported by seasonal demand and supply-side policies [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its rebound, with analysts suggesting that the risk of disappointing earnings has diminished [6] - The market is anticipated to experience fluctuations, with a focus on growth styles in the near term [6] - Analysts recommend a balanced strategy in sector allocation, emphasizing technology, materials, and defensive high-dividend assets like coal [6]

（来源：市场星报） 资金面规律显示，节前流出的融资资金（往往偏好弹性品种）通常在节后回流，这将为小盘风格提供增 量支撑； 宏观环境亦对风格有所牵引。当前国内制造业PMI数据偏弱，反映内需不足的矛盾依然存在，扩大内需 的政策预期对部分板块形成支撑； 海外方面，美元可能的阶段性走强会对周期风格形成一定压制，相比之下，主要受国内产业政策驱动的 科技成长板块所受影响相对较小，其长期产业趋势并未改变。 技术面上，周三市场探底回升，沪指重返4100点，创业板指盘中一度跌超2%，最终也大幅缩窄跌幅， 再度彰显出当前市场较强的承接动能。不过量能小幅萎缩，已不足2.5万亿，再考虑到节前效应的影 响，近期想要走出连续放量上攻行情的概率相对较低，仍以区间震荡结构看待为宜。 因此，春节前后的市场风格大概率将呈现"节前求稳，节后反弹"的节奏特征。节前，在避险情绪与稳健 配置需求主导下，红利及低估值大盘板块的修复行情有望延续。节后，随着两会政策窗口开启、市场风 险偏好回升以及资金流向变化，市场焦点可能重新转向小盘成长与具备明确产业催化的题材方向。对于 投资者而言，应对当前震荡轮动市的关键在于踏准节奏，无需对短期风格切换过度焦虑。 A股三 ...

写在文章前的声明：在本文之前的说明：本文中所列的投资信息，只是一个对基金资产净值进行排行的客观描述，并无主观倾向性，也不是投资建议，纯属 娱乐性质。 一顿操作猛如虎，基金净值已更新，谁是基金中的王者，谁又垫底，请看数据： | 基金简称 PK | | | 最新净线的司 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 万家宏观择... A | 2.6073 | 8.39% | | | | 519212 | 2026-2-4 | | | | 2 | 万家宏观择 ... C | 2.5686 | 8.38% | 27 | | | 017787 | 2026-2-4 | | | | 3 | 国联煤炭C | 1.9410 | 8.01% | 27 | | | 016814 | 2026-2-4 | | | | 4 | 国联煤炭A | 1.9590 | 7.99% | 8 | | | 168204 | 2026-2-4 | | | | 5 | 国泰中证煤 ... C | 2.1054 | 7.92% | | | | 008280 | 2026-2-4 | | | | 6 | 国泰中证 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下降，煤炭价格上涨 ——行业景气观察（0204） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中，煤炭、 石油价格上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数下跌，1 月重卡销量三个 月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，DDR4 价格边际下行，12 月北美 PCB 订单 量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，鸡肉价格、飞天茅台批价上行。春 节临近生产季节性放缓，年末冲刺透支部分需求，拖累 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下 行。推荐景气较高或有改善的煤炭、石油石化、中药、白酒、电力、半导体等。 ❑【本周关注】春节临近生产季节性放缓，去年年末冲刺透支了部分需求，拖累 1 月 制造业 PMI 环比下行，寒潮拖累施工进度，建筑业景气明显下滑，服务业也有放 缓。结构上特征主要有：1）春节临近生产季节性放缓，叠加原材料价格上涨，采 购量明显下滑，或因去年年末冲刺影响，需求偏弱，生产经营预期下行，库存升至 同期较高水平；2）地缘政治风险推升油价和贵金属价格，抬高成本，叠加反内卷 背景下部分行业供给受限，购进价格和出厂价格指数均 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.04 印尼削减产量配额，搅动全球煤炭贸易 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额；全球煤炭 2026 年起供给收缩需求抬升，看 好上升周期；2026 年中国进口煤量或将进一步下降，国内煤价有望恢复增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价》 2026.02.02 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260202》2026.02.02 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the continuation of technology and resource prosperity, indicating a potential turning point for domestic demand, driven by AI infrastructure investment and signs of recovery in consumer spending [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Global technology hardware demand remains strong, with a temporary slowdown in storage chip price increases, yet prices remain high [2]. - Resource prices are experiencing localized increases, particularly in chemical products with significant supply constraints, while non-ferrous metal supply remains tight [2]. - Consumer recovery shows some positive signs, with high-end liquor prices stabilizing and progress in real estate policies, suggesting a potential stabilization in domestic demand [2]. Group 2: Downstream Consumption - High-end liquor prices, such as Moutai, have increased by 3.9% for original and 3.0% for bulk, likely due to pre-Spring Festival gifting demand [3]. - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a drop of 41.6% [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars fell by 22.0% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the durable goods sector [3]. Group 3: Technology & Manufacturing - Storage price increases have slowed, with DRAM prices showing mixed trends; DDR4 prices decreased by 1.3% while DDR5 prices increased by 1.4% [4]. - Chemical product prices remain strong, with PX and PTA prices increasing by 5.2% and decreasing by 0.4%, respectively [4]. - Coal prices rose by 1.0% due to a brief cold snap, while industrial metal prices experienced significant volatility influenced by changes in Federal Reserve leadership [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand remained stable before the holiday, with a slight decrease of 0.2% in major cities [5]. - Freight logistics demand increased, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume rising by 4.8% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - Port throughput showed a rebound, indicating a potential recovery in export activity [5].