1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations, the European Container Freight Index (EC) shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot freight rate is favorable, but political and economic factors are unfavorable. The supply of shipping capacity and demand are neutral. In the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of cargo owners". The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased and verified, with the second quarter of next year as the first substantial observation point [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Spot Freight Rate**: Bullish. This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500, and the overall quotation range in late October was 2000 - 2200 (MSK's price increase letter indicates 2500 in early November) [3] - **Political and Economic**: Bearish. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods from November 1. China announced new restrictions on rare - earth exports. The US adjusted the 232 - clause tariff on some products. Israel and Hamas reached a peace agreement, but there are still uncertainties [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The average weekly shipping capacity deployment in September was 305,000 TEU, 250,000 TEU in October, 280,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate declined rapidly, lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. The loading rate of GEMINI rebounded due to significant price cuts, while those of the other two alliances continued to decline [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and the 10 - 12 spread trading is in a long - short positive spread. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data on European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices, as well as Maersk's European line quotations [6][12] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on order volume, new - order volume, and order volume by loading capacity [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on future delivery volume, future delivery volume by quarter and season, and future delivery volume by loading capacity [24][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on ship - breaking price by loading capacity and new - shipbuilding price index and price by loading capacity [31] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on second - hand ship price index and second - hand ship price by loading capacity [37] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships**: There are data on existing shipping capacity, existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofitting ratios, average age, and average age of ship - breaking [46][49][53] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: There are data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, and the shipping capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [61][63][65][67][69] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers**: There are data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average age and duration of installation, and average speed [71][72][75] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on idle shipping capacity, idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle shipping capacity, and shipping capacity for desulfurization tower retrofitting [79][80]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions and a general sharp decline in the external market, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The overall atmosphere remains bearish despite the rebound of the SCFI index, and the market is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, down 6.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 876.82 points, down 4.8%. On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 818.97 points, up 11.50%; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% [3]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9%; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1014.78 points, down 6.7%; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line; the preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4; the preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 [3]. - **China**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [4]. - **US**: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52; the preliminary services PMI was 53.9; the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 [4]. 3.3 Contract Information - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [6]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - **Long - term strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Other Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. 3.6 Geopolitical Situation - There are conflicting reports about the Israel - Hamas situation. Some reports say Israel's military operations have stopped, while others claim attacks on multiple areas in Gaza are continuing. A cease - fire agreement has been announced by a Hamas official, but some terms of Trump's "20 - point plan" are not mentioned [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The shipping industry is facing a transition between the off - season and peak season, with airlines' price increases likely to be difficult to implement. The market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and rising bargaining power of shippers" before the new long - term cooperation period in 2026. The 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended. [7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Rate Index - **Current Values**: Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1160, China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1015, SCFI - US West is 1468, SCFIS - US West is 876, SCFI - US East is 2452, SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1068. - **Percentage Changes**: SCFI increased by 4.12%, CCFI decreased by 6.68%, SCFI - US West increased by 0.55%, SCFIS - US West decreased by 4.89%, SCFI - US East increased by 2.81%, SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 9.99%. [5] Contract Data - **Current Values**: EC2506 is 1248.6, EC2608 is 1393.6, EC2510 is 1121.1, EC2512 is 1571.0, EC5602 is 1338.0, EC2604 is 1069.0. - **Percentage Changes**: EC2506 decreased by 2.26%, EC2608 decreased by 3.13%, EC2510 increased by 0.11%, EC2512 decreased by 6.93%, EC5602 decreased by 4.84%, EC2604 decreased by 4.55%. [5] Position Data - **Current Values**: EC2606 position is 1516, EC2608 position is 1041, EC2410 position is 18352, EC2412 position is 28056, EC2602 position is 9768, EC2604 position is 12963. - **Change Values**: EC2606 increased by 146, EC2608 increased by 133, EC2410 decreased by 2678, EC2412 increased by 3834, EC2602 increased by 1025, EC2604 increased by 1876. [5] Month - Spread Data - **Current Values**: The 10 - 12 month - spread is - 449.9, the 12 - 2 month - spread is 233.0, the 12 - 4 month - spread is 502.0. - **Change Values**: The 10 - 12 month - spread increased by 118.2, the 12 - 2 month - spread decreased by 49.0, the 12 - 4 month - spread decreased by 66.1. [5] 2. Spot Price - In October, the prices of GEMINI dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC reported 1600 in early October. The overall mainstream quotation range for the second half of October is 2000 - 2200. [7] 3. Logic - In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargoes, and freight rates once dropped to $1300/FEU. Maersk first announced a price increase of $400/FEU for the second half of October, but in October, both supply and demand decreased, and it is likely to return to the off - season market. The negotiation on the Gaza issue has created a theoretical possibility for the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, but the shipping industry still faces "three hurdles". [8] 4. Strategy - A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended. [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Hainan Strait Shipping Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.22%, reaching 11.29 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 818 million CNY and a turnover rate of 3.41%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 25.227 billion CNY [1] - The company was established on December 6, 2002, and listed on December 16, 2009, primarily engaged in ship transportation and ferry port services [1] - The main revenue composition of the company includes: Hainan An Line 72.21%, Yanda Line 10.48%, Xisha Line 6.17%, port business 5.40%, other lines 3.72%, and others 1.70%, with Beihai Line contributing 0.32% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Western Lide Fund has a significant position in Hainan Strait Shipping, with the Western Lide Xiangyun Mixed A Fund (673081) holding 379,000 shares, accounting for 1.23% of the fund's net value, ranking as the seventh largest holding [2] - The Western Lide Xiangyun Mixed A Fund was established on December 5, 2016, with a latest scale of 166 million CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 20.35% and a one-year return of 23.95% [2]

国泰若安斯货 信息汇总及行情频测 当前市场主流预期,100%的关税难以落地,最终回到TACO交易,只 是时间问题。这种情况下，如果前期科技资产的仓位已经获得显著的 浮盈,短期可以适当降低部分恒科仓位,观望,并选择更好时机以更 低成本再介入恒生科技。 但如果贸易战恶化的形式比市场当前主流预期更严峻。参考19年贸易 战经验,部分形成产业趋势的科技板块即便在关税冲击下短期暴跌, 也能在市场波动率下降、风险偏好企稳阶段重拾涨势,占优全年。因 此,这种情况下仍然推荐港股把握科技(ai/创新药/自主可控) +红利 的杠铃策略,择机抄底科技资产。 短期美股因情绪导致的波动可能难以避免,但情绪层面的冲击会明显 小于四月，不会跌那么狠。短期可以适当降低部分美股仓位，观望, 并选择更好的时机更低成本再介入美股科技资产。 潜在风险在于,相较于今年4月,美股的位置更高,本身就存在资金盘 活获利了解的压力,可能对于利空更加敏感。 受周末贸易战升温影响,周一国债或全线高开,但持续性堪忧。亦有 可能出现4月7日前后跳空高开再回落的走势。仍然维持底部震荡偏空 观点。 贸易摩擦用升级 风险信息汇总及后续展望 有色金属价格几乎全部承压,其中金融 ...

中美关税继续延期，谈判并没有出现实质性进展，关税战已经逐渐演 化成美国与其他国家间的贸易谈判问题,目前现货价格小幅下降。综 上述,我们认为,关税问题已经量现边际化效应,目前核心还是现货 运价的走向，主力合约或已处于筑底过程，建议轻仓参与或观望。 10月10日主力合约2512收盘1570.0，跌幅为3.04%，成交量3.15 万手，持仓量2.81万手，较上日增手3834手。 中东局势持续向好,虽SCFI指数回升,但整体氛围仍偏空,盘面承压 下行。之后需对关税政策、中东局势以及现货运价情况关注。 短期策略: 主力合约保持弱势,远月合约较强,符合筑底判断,风险偏 好者已建议止盈。关注后续盘面走势，不建议扛单，设置好止损。 套利策略: 国际局势动荡背景下, 各合约仍保持季节性逻辑, 波动较 大，建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 长期策略：各合约已建议冲高止盈，等待回调企稳后，在判断后续方向 跌涨停板：2508-2606合约调整为18%。 我司保证金:2508-2606合约调整为28%。 日内开仓限制: 2508-2606所有合约为100手。 中美贸易摩擦再起,外盘普遍大幅下跌,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 | SCFIS、N ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20251006-20251012） 聚焦：中国对美船舶港口征费反制，关注中美 推荐（维持） 摩擦背景下航运股投资机会 我们建议关注中美贸易摩擦航运股投资机会，油轮、干散运费有望受益于短期 混乱风险溢价，推荐中远海能、招商轮船、招商南油、海通发展，同时建议关 注中美谈判进展。 行业研究 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 交通运输 2025 年 10 月 13 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 ...

Report Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is -1, indicating a weak outlook [16]. Core Viewpoints - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to remain weak in the short - term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [1]. - The market trading of the index is mainly influenced by three factors: the fundamental situation of the European Line, the expectation of route resumption, and the escalation of Sino - US tariffs [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2510 closed at 1,121.1 with a 0.77% daily increase; EC2512 closed at 1,571.0 with a 3.04% daily decrease; EC2602 closed at 1,338.0 with a 5.17% daily decrease [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index dropped 6.6% week - on - week to 1,046.50 points; the SCFIS US West route index dropped 4.8% week - on - week to 876.82 points. The SCFI European route index rose 10.0% bi - weekly to $1,068/TEU; the SCFI US West route index rose 0.5% bi - weekly to $1,468/FEU [1]. - **Spot Freight**: Different carriers' spot freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route range from $1,800 - $2,220/40'GP and $1,080 - $1,605/20'GP [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.84, and the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.12 [1]. 2. Shipping Capacity - **October**: The weekly average shipping capacity was revised down from 26.5 to 25.7 million TEU/week due to many postponed sailings on the FE4 route. The spot market will mainly handle cargoes for weeks 43 and 44 next week, corresponding to shipping capacities of 29 and 33.5 million TEU respectively [11]. - **November**: The weekly average shipping capacity is currently 30.7 million TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), a 19% month - on - month increase and an 8.9% year - on - year increase. There are some changes in the suspension plans of different alliances [11]. - **December**: There are 6 pending and 3 empty voyages, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 29.5 million TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), and there is room for significant revision [11]. 3. Spot Freight Forecast - In mid - to late October, the reduction of empty voyages by the PA Alliance eased the pressure on shipowners to attract cargo after the holiday, but the demand did not improve significantly. The SCFIS European route index on October 13 is expected to decline slightly or fluctuate. For week 43, except for the Gemini Alliance, other shipping companies may see their quotes fall further [12]. 4. Contract Analysis - **2510 Contract**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly around 1100 points [12]. - **2512 Contract**: Due to the escalation of trade frictions and the uncertainty of the trade war, it is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset (1400 - 1800 points), and look for unilateral low - buying opportunities next week [13]. - **2602 Contract**: There is a divergence on whether to resume routes in February. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities and enter a long 02 - short 04 spread position with a light position [14]. 5. Impact of Counter - measures - China's counter - measures against the US USTR port surcharges are expected to have limited impact on the European Line's operating costs and supply. It may squeeze the living space of US - bound shipping companies in the long - term and increase the US - bound freight rates [15].

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent increase in holdings of gold ETFs indicates a rising demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with holdings reaching 1017.16 tons, up by 3.72 tons from the previous trading day and a net increase of 4.28 tons for the month [1] - The complex global economic and geopolitical landscape, including escalating US-China trade tensions and regulatory investigations, is contributing to the heightened appeal of precious metals [1][2] - The ongoing US government shutdown and concerns over the US debt situation are creating uncertainty in the market, with the public debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 99% last year, prompting a reevaluation of the dollar's credibility [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - For gold, the technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook with a recommendation to buy on dips, particularly in the price range of 4043.6 to 4049.6, with a stop-loss at 4038.6 and a target of 4053.6 to 4059.6 [5] - Silver's technical indicators show a similar pattern to gold, with a recommendation to enter long positions when prices fall to the 49.53 to 50.03 range, setting a stop-loss at 49.43 and targeting 50.13 to 50.63 [6] Group 3: Key Data and Events - Important upcoming data includes China's September electricity consumption and trade balance, as well as the OPEC monthly oil market report, which could influence market dynamics [7] - The World Bank and IMF's annual meeting is set to take place from October 15 to 18, where policy signals may impact the financial markets [7]

记者 辛圆 国新办周一举行新闻发布会，请海关总署副署长王军，海关总署新闻发言人、统计分析司司长吕大良介绍2025年前三季度进出口情况，并答记者问。 在发布会上，有记者现场提问称：随着中美贸易摩擦带来不确定性，有些商品例如圣诞节产品提前出口到美国，请问海关还关注到哪些提前出口的产品类 型，对四季度出口增速会有何影响？ 对此，吕大良回应说，今年以来，个别国家滥施关税，冲击了多边贸易体制，扰乱全球贸易秩序，影响企业的正常生产经营和贸易节奏，也损害了广大企业 的利益，同时也使各国的经济发展受到严重的干扰，引发了国际社会的普遍反对。 "中国始终坚定支持和维护多边贸易体制，促进全球产业链供应链的稳定和畅通，为世界经济增长注入确定性和稳定性。至于具体商品的进出口情况，您可 以在我们的网站上查询有关的数据。"吕大良说。 吕大良表示，船舶港务费问题。此前有关部门已经多次作过回应，美方的措施是典型的单边主义、保护主义行为，具有明显的歧视性色彩。 他强调，中方的反制措施是必要的被动防御行为，既是维护中国产业和企业正当权益不得不采取的措施，也是维护国际航运和造船市场公平竞争环境的必要 措施。希望美方能够正视自身的错误，与中方相向而行 ...