Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - In the short term, platinum prices lack a clear driving force and will maintain a volatile trend due to the intertwining of multiple and bearish factors. In the medium to long term, the weakening of the US dollar index will help release the elasticity of platinum prices, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [2]. - Palladium prices currently follow the overall volatility of the precious metals sector. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is loosening, but short - term supply disturbances still exist. In the medium to long term, prices are expected to be volatile and bullish due to spot shortages and the weakening of the US dollar credit [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - On March 12, 2026, the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 0.94% to 564.65 yuan/gram [1]. - The main logic is that the US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metal prices, but high oil prices raise inflation expectations and delay the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. The weak US employment data in February has a weakened impact due to the US - Iran conflict. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial to platinum prices, but the US - Iran conflict also has an additional impact [2]. - The outlook is volatile and bullish [2]. Palladium - On March 12, 2026, the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 2.08% to 416.60 yuan/gram [1]. - The main logic is that there is continuous uncertainty on the supply side. The US has made an anti - dumping affirmative preliminary ruling on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. Currently, it mainly follows the overall volatility of the precious metals sector [3]. - The outlook is volatile and bullish [3]. Commodity Indexes - On March 12, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index of the CITIC Futures commodity index increased by 1.71%, 1.15%, 2.95%, and 1.53% respectively [49]. - The non - ferrous metals index on March 12, 2026, had a daily decline of 0.13%, a 5 - day increase of 0.88%, a 1 - month decline of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.16% [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 13, 2026, including base spreads, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of different commodities [1][6][22][28][41][55] Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal - The base spreads on March 12, 11, 10, 09, and 06, 2026 were -72.4, -67.4, -64.4, -60.4, and -58.4 yuan/ton respectively, while the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - The base spreads of INE crude oil on March 12, 11, 10, 09, and 06, 2026 were 206.44, 163.01, 128.92, 94.82, and 30.97 yuan/ton respectively; the base spreads of fuel oil were 38.46, 373.46, 390.52, 1606.16, and 573.99 yuan/ton respectively; the ratios of crude oil to asphalt were 0.1796, 0.1719, 0.1911, 0.1898, and 0.1764 respectively [7] Chemical Commodities - **Base Spreads**: On March 12, 11, 10, 09, and 06, 2026, the base spreads of rubber were 275, -180, -365, 55, and -235 yuan/ton respectively; methanol were 124, 52, 56, 105, and -26 yuan/ton respectively; PTA were 27, -80, -20, -21, and -80 yuan/ton respectively; LLDPE were -1236, -1154, -767, -944, and -691 yuan/ton respectively; V were 30, -116, -19, 324, and -231 yuan/ton respectively; PP were 447, -172, 80, 1696, and -47 yuan/ton respectively [11] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol were -640, 215, 886, 566, 5, 952, and 248 yuan/ton respectively; the 9 - 1 month spreads were -740, 27, 412, 219, -18, 330, and 89 yuan/ton respectively; the 9 - 5 month spreads were -100, -188, -474, -347, -23, -622, and -159 yuan/ton respectively [12] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On March 12, 11, 10, 09, and 06, 2026, the spreads of LLDPE - PVC were 2657, 2523, 2706, 2496, and 2338 yuan/ton respectively; LLDPE - PP were -85, -73, -51, -92, and -85 yuan/ton respectively; PP - PVC were 2742, 2596, 2757, 2588, and 2423 yuan/ton respectively; PP - 3*methanol were 171, 161, 234, -267, and -1 yuan/ton respectively [12] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were -53.0, 47.0, -171.5, and -313.0 yuan/ton respectively; the 9(10) - 1 month spreads were -22.0, 18.5, -93.5, and -211.0 yuan/ton respectively; the 9(10) - 5 month spreads were 31.0, -28.5, 78.0, and 102.0 yuan/ton respectively [21] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On March 12, 11, 10, 09, and 06, 2026, the ratios of rebar to iron ore were 3.94, 3.96, 3.98, 3.99, and 4.01 respectively; rebar to coke were 1.8089, 1.8271, 1.8212, 1.7715, and 1.8371 respectively; coke to coking coal were 1.4882, 1.5062, 1.4987, 1.5084, and 1.5140 respectively; the spreads of rebar - hot rolled coil were -154.0, -156.0, -154.0, -145.0, and -140.0 yuan/ton respectively [21] - **Base Spreads**: On March 12, 11, 10, 09, and 06, 2026, the base spreads of rebar were 110.0, 75.0, 126.0, 111.0, and 82.0 yuan/ton respectively; iron ore were -15.5, -12.5, -14.0, -6.5, and -10.0 yuan/ton respectively; coke were -272.0, -263.0, -225.5, -285.0, and -240.5 yuan/ton respectively; coking coal were 22.0, 30.5, 53.5, 7.0, and 52.0 yuan/ton respectively [22] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - On March 12, 11, 10, 09, and 06, 2026, the base spreads of copper were -710, 220, -310, -510, and -90 yuan/ton respectively; aluminum were 40, -155, -430, 280, and -295 yuan/ton respectively; zinc were 20, -95, -195, -60, and -90 yuan/ton respectively; lead were -175, -240, -210, -200, and -185 yuan/ton respectively; nickel were 3020, 2350, 4790, 4800, and 3600 yuan/ton respectively; tin were -500, 1260, 9730, -3710, and 6340 yuan/ton respectively [29] London Market - On March 12, 2026, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were (102.11), 33.85, (44.64), (47.22), (207.72), and 72.00 respectively; the Shanghai - London ratios were 7.81, 7.33, 7.40, 8.60, 7.91, and 7.97 respectively; the CIF prices were 100291.25, 28921.24, 26768.72, 15268.10, 136085.95, and 383331.43 respectively; the domestic spot prices were 100990.00, 25290.00, 24390.00, 16660.00, 141120.00, and 390410.00 respectively; the import profit and loss were 698.75, (3631.24), (2378.72), 1391.90, 5034.05, and 7078.57 respectively [36] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Spreads**: On March 12, 11, 10, 09, and 06, 2026, the base spreads of soybeans No.1 were -269, -254, -169, -235, and -501 yuan/ton respectively; soybeans No.2 were 70.04, -0.19, 61.3, 18.54, and 69.37 yuan/ton respectively; soybean meal were 226, 182, 227, 275, and 155 yuan/ton respectively; soybean oil were 338, 250, 326, 548, and 308 yuan/ton respectively; corn were -6, -5, 9, -15, and -33 yuan/ton respectively [42] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and rapeseed meal were 10, -1, -12, 112, and 84 yuan/ton respectively; the 9 - 1 month spreads were 29, -32, -24, 6, and 65 yuan/ton respectively; the 9 - 5 month spreads were 19, -31, -12, -106, and -19 yuan/ton respectively. For rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, the 5 - 1 month spreads were 155, 236, 27, -151, and -325 yuan/ton respectively; the 9 - 1 month spreads were 53, 146, 45, -126, and -280 yuan/ton respectively; the 9 - 5 month spreads were -102, -90, 18, 25, and 45 yuan/ton respectively [42] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On March 12, 11, 10, 09, and 06, 2026, the ratios of soybeans No.1 to corn were 2.03, 2.01, 2.00, 2.00, and 1.95 respectively; soybeans No.2 to corn were 1.61, 1.59, 1.57, 1.57, and 1.53 respectively; soybean oil to soybean meal were 2.81, 2.81, 2.87, 2.90, and 2.91 respectively; the spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal were 584, 584, 560, 554, and 532 yuan/ton respectively; soybean oil - palm oil were -1064, -946, -966, -868, and -742 yuan/ton respectively; rapeseed oil - soybean oil were 1159, 1223, 1292, 1232, and 1185 yuan/ton respectively; corn - corn starch were -326, -328, -322, -319, and -316 yuan/ton respectively [42] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of the next - month to the current - month of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were -18.0, -1.6, -48.2, and -72.2 respectively; the spreads of the next - quarter to the current - quarter were -72.8, -38.8, -159.4, and -206.8 respectively [52] - **Base Spreads**: On different dates, the base spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented in the report [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The night session of the previous day saw the main contracts of coking coal and coke perform strongly, with the total positions of coking coal increasing compared to the previous period. This week's data from the Steel Union showed that the output of the five major steel products increased, mainly contributed by rebar. The overall inventory continued to increase, but the growth rate narrowed significantly compared to the previous period. The apparent demand increased significantly, mainly from rebar. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, the hot metal output continued to decline this week. It is expected that with the end of environmental protection restrictions and the advancement of resumption of work and production, the hot metal output will significantly rebound, driving the improvement of the rigid demand for coking coal and coke and providing support for coal prices. The repeated geopolitical situation can also push up the valuation of energy commodities. In the future, focus should be placed on the trend of hot metal output, the start - up situation of mines, and the geopolitical trend [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Price Information - **Previous Day's Closing Price**: For coking coal, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1466.0, 1153.0, and 1254.5 respectively; for coke, they were 1896.0, 1727.0, and 1801.5 respectively. The previous two - day closing prices for coking coal were 1461.5, 1144.5, and 1247.5 respectively; for coke, they were 1887.5, 1718.0, and 1793.5 respectively [1] - **Price Changes and Ranges**: The price changes for coking coal were 4.5, 8.5, and 7.0 respectively, with price decline ranges of 0.31%, 0.74%, and 0.56%; for coke, they were 8.5, 9.0, and 8.0 respectively, with price decline ranges of 0.45%, 0.52%, and 0.45% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of coking coal for January, May, and September contracts were 5060, 1002451, and 108346 respectively; for coke, they were 156, 166991, and 1679. The open interests of coking coal were 15140, 393876, and 111895 respectively; for coke, they were 1614, 35867, and 4214. The changes in open interests of coking coal were 239, - 13407, and 1126 respectively; for coke, they were 96, 379, and 248 [1] - **Price Spreads**: For coking coal, the price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5; for coke, they were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 [1] Spot Price Information - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of Mongolian 5 coking coal (port self - pick - up price), low - sulfur coking coal (Linfen ex - factory price), low - sulfur fat coal (Taiyuan wagon - board price), Tangshan first - grade coke (ex - factory price), Jinzhong quasi - first - grade coke (ex - factory price), and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (warehouse - out price) were 1175, 1450, 1373, 1800, 1280, and 1470 respectively, with no changes [1] Automobile Industry Data - In February, China's automobile sales were 1.04 million, a year - on - year decrease of 25.9%. Among them, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 464,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 22.1% [1]

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand dynamics, and policy changes to offer trading strategies for each market. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, the stock index was in a low - level oscillation. The main contracts of stock index futures all declined, with increased trading volume and positions. The market was affected by factors such as the US 301 investigation and the adjustment of technology stocks. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and adopt a bull spread option strategy [20][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The market sentiment was initially cautious but turned positive due to the news of potential cuts in inter - bank deposit rates. It is recommended to close short positions on dips and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The supply of soybeans still has an impact, and the futures market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, narrow the MRM09 spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices rose, and domestic sugar prices showed a strong trend. The production increase in India and Thailand may be lower than expected, and the global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease. It is recommended that international sugar prices and Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [28][31][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil fluctuated. The expectation of biodiesel is positive, and the oils may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations in the short - term, consider p59 and y59 reverse arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn futures rose. The spot prices in the production areas are strong, and the futures market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn, adopt a high - level oscillation strategy for the 05 corn, widen the 05 corn - starch spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog prices are oscillating. The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to face pressure. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and adopt a short strangle option strategy [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long operations on dips for the 05 peanuts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [42][43][45]. - **Eggs**: The egg prices are stable. The enthusiasm for culling laying hens has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. It is recommended to short the June contracts on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [46][47][48]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory has decreased, and the prices are relatively firm. The 5 - month contract of apple futures is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to exit and stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [50][51]. - **Cotton**: The outer - market cotton futures oscillated. The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [53][56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The black sector oscillated strongly at night. The steel price is supported by raw materials and is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and strong trend, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies, hold the short coil - rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking market fluctuates greatly, mainly following the changes in oil and gas and chemicals. It is recommended that cautious investors stay on the sidelines and consider going long on dips. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rose rapidly from the bottom. The supply disturbance is increasing, and the spot market is recommended for high - level hedging. It is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for the spot, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [66][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force of ferroalloys is strong, but the profit - loss ratio has decreased. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver oscillated due to the repeated geopolitical situation. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating range strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and exit the bull call spread strategy on rallies [71][72][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium markets are in an oscillating situation due to the continuous game of the Middle East issue. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for platinum and palladium, wait for low - long opportunities for platinum, look for opportunities to go long on the platinum - palladium spread at low levels, and stay on the sidelines for options [75][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by geopolitical risks and continues to oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips after the short - term oscillation stabilizes, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [79][80][81]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price oscillates. It is recommended to expect short - term oscillations [82][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum production in the Middle East has suspended production cuts, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][90]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy price oscillates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91][92]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the zinc price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [93][94]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The supply and demand of lead have increased in March, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to buy low and sell high, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [96][97]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is strong due to the blocked passage of the strait. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy [98][99]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [101][103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price oscillates in a range. It is recommended to conduct range operations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [105]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have not improved significantly, and the price oscillates weakly. It is recommended to be bearish, pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [107][108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate is not prominent, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [109][111]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillates downwards due to high risk - aversion sentiment. It is recommended to expect the price to oscillate downwards and stay on the sidelines for options [112][113]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Middle East geopolitical situation is repeated, and ship attacks continue. The spot freight rate is affected by fuel prices and insurance costs. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the near - month 04 contract and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [115][116][117]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The negotiation on iron ore pricing rights between China and Australia is at a deadlock, and the future rental height of the Capesize ship type may be limited. The market trends of different ship types are differentiated. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the war duration on the dry bulk shipping chain [118][119][120]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market trading is dull, and the EU has differences in the EU ETS reform. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to the EU's policy on carbon market reform, geopolitical situation evolution, and energy supply recovery progress [120][121][124]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The risk spill - over range of crude oil has expanded, and the Brent oil price is above $100 per barrel. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [125]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is limited and the price is rising, while downstream users are on the sidelines. The cost is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [129][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The low - sulfur supply is expected to shrink, and the demand in Singapore may increase. It is recommended to expect a strong oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [132][133]. - **LPG**: The LPG price follows the oil price. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [134]. - **Natural Gas**: Qatar's production suspension continues, and the supply shortage is accumulating. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for trading, arbitrage, and options [137][138][140]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PX and PTA is expected to shrink unexpectedly. It is recommended to expect an upward trend driven by supply tension, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [141][142][143]. - **BZ & EB**: The domestic operating loads of pure benzene and styrene have decreased. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of Middle - East logistics on supply. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply impact and prevent the price from falling back, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [146][147][148]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene cracking enterprises have reduced their loads. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand structure is expected to improve. It is recommended to expect a strong oscillation, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [149][150]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price follows the cost and is strong. It is recommended to follow the cost and be bullish, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [151][152]. - **Bottle Chips**: The de - stocking amplitude in the first quarter is limited. The bottle - chip price follows the cost and is strong. It is recommended to follow the cost and be bullish, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [153][154]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand of propylene are supported. The operating load has decreased, and the cost of downstream products is under pressure. It is recommended to expect an upward trend, pay attention to the Middle - East situation, prevent the price from falling back, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [156][157][159]. - **Plastic PP**: It is recommended to hold long positions for L and PP. Set stop - loss levels at recent high points. Consider arbitrage opportunities for SPC L2605&PP2605 and set stop - loss levels at recent high points. Stay on the sidelines for options [160][161]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price is strengthening. It is recommended to expect a strengthening trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [163][164]. - **PVC**: The PVC price oscillates widely. The supply at home and abroad is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and not chase the rise, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [165][166]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillates weakly. The supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to expect wide - range oscillations and a weak direction, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [167][168][169]. - **Glass**: The glass price has large fluctuations, wide - range oscillations, and a weak direction. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to expect wide - range oscillations and a weak direction, close the short - glass long - soda - ash arbitrage position, and stay on the sidelines for options [170][171][173]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillates at a high level due to news disturbances. The supply in Iran may decrease, and the domestic market is worried about supply shortages. It is recommended to go long on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [174][175]. - **Urea**: The urea price oscillates widely following the energy - chemical market. The supply is at a historical high, and the demand is gradually increasing. It is recommended to operate cautiously, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [177][178]. - **Pulp**: The pulp inventory is high, and the market rebound is weak. The supply exceeds demand, and the demand recovery is slow. It is recommended to conduct wide - range oscillations, lay out long positions in small amounts near integer points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the SP2605 - P - 5200 option [179][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory suppresses the paper price. The supply and demand of offset printing paper are in a weak balance, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [182][184][185]. - **Logs**: The import cost of logs is rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of construction sites. The price is supported by cost and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [186][187][188]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The full - steel tire production line has reached a new high in operation. The domestic tire production line operation rate is increasing. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the previous high point, conduct small - amount long operations for the NR 05 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent low points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the RU2605 put 15750 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent high points [189][190][191]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The profit of butadiene rubber has improved. The profit of BD has increased, and the tire production line operation rate is increasing. It is recommended to chase long positions for the BR 05 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent low points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [193][194][195].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - In the short - term, the global sugar import is weak in the third quarter, and high inventories will continue to suppress sugar prices. The Brazilian production will be the key variable determining the global sugar pattern. If the sugar - making ratio or agricultural yield in central - southern Brazil declines, the supply - demand balance still has room for adjustment [3]. - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward overnight and is at the upper edge of the range. The Iran situation may push up the ethanol - to - sugar price, and the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 season may decline. In the medium - term, the expected decline in Brazilian production may offset part of the supply surplus. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is boosted by the external market, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment on the market [4]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward overnight with an upward - shifted price center. The adjustment of the market due to the escalation of the Middle - East situation may be basically over, and the callback range is expected to be relatively limited. In the long - and medium - term, cotton prices may still have room to rise under the expectation of tight supply and demand. Domestically, with increased consumption and low carry - over inventories from last year, the supply this year is expected to be tight. Policy - regulated planting area may support cotton prices in the long - and medium - term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: For domestic sugar futures contracts (SR2609, SR2605, SR2603), the prices of SR2609 and SR2605 decreased slightly, with a decline of - 0.02% and - 0.13% respectively, while SR2603 remained unchanged. The prices of 11 - sugar futures contracts (11 - sugar2610, 11 - sugar2607, 11 - sugar2605) increased, with an increase of 1.29%, 1.60%, and 1.29% respectively. There were changes in positions and trading volumes, and the price differences between different contracts also changed [2]. - **Cotton Futures**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward overnight, and the price center moved up [4]. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou increased from 5450 to 5480. The basis in Liuzhou and Kunming changed compared with the previous value. The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased compared with the previous value [2]. Supply and Demand - **Global Sugar**: The consulting firm StoneX estimated that the global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season will be significantly reduced from 2.9 million tons to 0.87 million tons, a 70% decrease from the previous estimate. The global sugar supply is expected to increase by 2.6% year - on - year to 194.6 million tons, consumption is expected to increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 193.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is expected to increase by 1.2% year - on - year to 74.6 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 38.5%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years [3]. - **Thailand Sugar**: As of March 11, 2025/26 season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume increased by 0.48% year - on - year to 88.3668 million tons, sugar production increased by 2.98% year - on - year to 9.7927 million tons [3]. - **Brazilian Sugar**: In the first week of March, Brazil exported 444,608.35 tons of sugar, with a daily average export volume of 88,921.67 tons, an 8% decrease compared with the daily average export volume in March of the previous year [3]. Inventory and Positions - **Sugar Inventory and Positions**: The total of sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts remained unchanged at 17,026. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - sugar increased, and the long - to - short ratio increased from 0.43 to 0.44 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the signs of easing geopolitical disturbances and the full release of panic sentiment, the stock index trend will return to the domestic fundamentals. The market may experience a phased rebound, but the pressure around the Shanghai Composite Index at 4,200 points remains significant. Geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and market sentiment is expected to be relatively cautious during the earnings disclosure period. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of high - selling and low - buying. In the medium term, the relative performance of IC and IM related to new - quality productivity is still favored [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 12, the Wind All - A Index declined with shrinking trading volume. It oscillated downward after the opening, rebounded and recovered in the afternoon, closing down 0.53%. Nearly 4,000 stocks in the whole market declined. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.36%, 0.46%, 0.52%, and 0.33% respectively. In the futures market, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.61%, 0.58%, 0.71%, and 0.43% respectively (calculated by closing price) [6] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - In the external market, the conflict between the US and Iran has escalated. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said its forces fired at ships that did not obey orders in the Gulf region. Geopolitical conflicts have reignited inflation concerns in overnight assets, leading to an increase in the US dollar index and crude oil, a decline in gold and US Treasury bonds, and an overall decline in US stocks. In the domestic market, in terms of liquidity, the trading volume of the two markets has shrunk after the sentiment has gradually recovered and is currently stable at around 2.5 trillion [7] 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the performance of domestic major indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of Wind All - A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, share statistics of major ETF funds, and trading volume statistics of major ETFs. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][20] 3.3 Industry News - On March 12, at the regular press conference, Reuters asked about the US government's launch of two new trade investigations into the "excess industrial capacity" of 16 major trading partners including China, and the US Trade Representative's Office listing the Chinese auto industry as a so - called "over - capacity" industry. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China's stance on Sino - US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear, opposing all forms of unilateral tariff measures. The so - called over - capacity is a false proposition, and China opposes political manipulation on this pretext [30]

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: March 13, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market sentiment improved in the afternoon, with treasury bond futures closing higher across the board. The yields of major bank - interbank interest - rate bonds declined across the board, with the decline of the 10 - year treasury bond yield within 1bp. The bank - interbank liquidity tightened marginally under continuous open - market withdrawals, and tax - period disturbances will increase next Monday [8][9][10]. - The February PMI was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened. However, high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production, and overseas export demand remained strong. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter may continue to perform well, dampening market expectations of monetary easing. The unclear situation in the US - Iran conflict has boosted risk - aversion demand in the short term, but the sharp rise in oil prices has also led to an increase in inflation expectations. The financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, bringing liquidity shocks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board as the bond market sentiment improved in the afternoon [8]. - The yields of major bank - interbank interest - rate bonds declined across the board, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield (250016) dropping 0.7bp to 1.8070% by 16:30 [9]. - The bank - interbank liquidity tightened marginally under continuous open - market withdrawals. The net open - market reverse - repurchase injection was 1.5 billion yuan today. Tax - period disturbances will increase as next Monday is the tax - payment deadline in March. The DR overnight rate in the inter - bank deposit market dropped 4.2bp to around 1.37%, the 7 - day funding rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.47%, and the medium - and long - term funding remained stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly around 1.56 - 1.58% [10]. Conclusion - The February PMI was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened, but high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production. Overseas export demand remained strong, as evidenced by good export data from January to February. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter may continue to perform well, dampening market expectations of monetary easing. The unclear situation in the US - Iran conflict has boosted risk - aversion demand in the short term, but the sharp rise in oil prices has also led to an increase in inflation expectations. The financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, bringing liquidity shocks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed, passing multiple resolutions and laws, including the resolution on the government work report, the resolution on the 14th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, the "Ecological Environment Code of the People's Republic of China", and approving the national economic and social development plan and the central budget for 2026 [13]. - The US government will launch two new trade investigations into the "excess industrial capacity" of 16 major trading partners, including China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that China opposes all forms of unilateral tariff measures, and the so - called over - capacity is a false proposition [13]. - Some member banks were required to strengthen self - discipline management at a meeting of the market interest rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism, with the proportion of inter - bank current deposits with an interest rate higher than the 7 - day reverse - repurchase OMO policy rate (1.4%) not exceeding 10% - 20% at the end of the quarter. It is expected that more than 10 trillion yuan of inter - bank deposits may see an interest - rate cut [13]. - The Ministry of Finance revised the classification of government revenue and expenditure in 2026, adding new expenditure items in the functional classification of government - funded budget expenditures related to the use of ultra - long - term special treasury bond revenues [14]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves to stabilize the soaring crude - oil prices during the US - Israel - Iran conflict. The G7 supports the use of strategic reserves to address the shortage of oil supply and market fluctuations [14]. - In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate returning to double digits at 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%; and the trade surplus was 1.50349 trillion yuan [15]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on March 12, 2026, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - **Money Market**: The report mentions the changes in SHIBOR term structure and trends, as well as the changes in bank - interbank pledged - repurchase weighted interest rates and inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase interest rates [30][34]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests a slightly bullish outlook for cotton. The analysis is based on various factors such as global and domestic supply - demand, market trends, and external factors. The 1 - 2 month textile exports were strong, it's entering the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and the reduction of US tariffs and the improvement of Sino - US relations are beneficial to textile exports [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review There is no information about the previous day review in the provided content. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ICAC predicts global consumption of 25 million tons and production of 24.8 million tons in the 26/27 season. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by over 10%. USDA's March report shows a 25/26 annual production of 26.343 million tons, consumption of 25.817 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.631 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%; cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. The Ministry of Agriculture's March 25/26 annual forecast shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,848, and the basis is 1303 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's March 25/26 annual forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The good textile exports from January to February, the arrival of the traditional peak season, the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations are all positive for textile exports. The cotton market is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, the total global production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory among different countries [9][10]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, production is expected to be 24.8 million tons (a 4% decrease), consumption is 25 million tons (a 0.7% decrease), the ending inventory is 16.6 million tons (a 1% decrease), and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.4% (a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease) [11]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 3.5. Position Data There is no information about position data in the provided content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the report is that the Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile upward trend in the previous trading day, with increased trading volume. Long - positions slightly increased and short - positions decreased. The market may experience a short - term volatile consolidation. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, but short - term indicators like KDJ are declining, and the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing while the short - side strength is increasing, resulting in a stalemate between the two sides. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2604 is to expect a volatile consolidation [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons, which is considered bullish [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 24,320, and the basis is +20, which is considered neutral [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On March 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 150 tons to 98,750 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 4,622 tons to 85,695 tons, which is considered neutral [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile upward trend in the previous trading day, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is considered bearish [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main positions are net long, and the long - positions increased, which is considered bullish [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on March 12 - The report provides detailed quotes for zinc futures contracts from 2603 to 2702, including opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest and its changes [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on March 12 - For zinc concentrates, the domestic spot TC is 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC is 30 US dollars/ton. For 0 zinc ingots, the prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang are 24,320 yuan/ton, 24,300 yuan/ton, 24,350 yuan/ton, and 24,370 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of +20, +40, +20, and +20 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/3/2 - 2026/3/12) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 21.19 tons on March 2, 2026, to 23.11 tons on March 12, 2026 [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on March 12 - The report details the zinc warrants in different regions and warehouses, with a total increase of 4,622 tons to 85,695 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on March 12 - The report shows the inventory, inflow, outflow, registered warrants, cancelled warrants, and the proportion of cancelled warrants in different regions, with a total inventory of 98,750 tons and a decrease of 150 tons [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 12 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrates in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming are mostly 20,900 yuan/ton, with a price increase of +20 yuan/ton [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 12 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan, etc., all increased by +20 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The planned production in February was 468,700 tons, the actual production was 470,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.87%, and the planned production in March was 490,200 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on March 12 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% - grade in different regions range from 1,400 to 1,700 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee for 48% - grade is 30 US dollars/ton [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on March 12 - The report lists the trading volume, long - positions, and short - positions and their changes of the top 20 members, with a total trading volume of 169,703, a total long - position of 51,069, and a total short - position of 50,346 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bearish outlook on precious metals [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation pattern. After geopolitical events provided short - term support to gold and silver prices, the sharp rise in oil prices in the context of the US - Iran war triggered market inflation expectations and made the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. The US inflation was in a moderate decline channel before the Middle - East conflict, but the stickiness on the service side slowed down the decline. Higher inflation expectations under the current rising energy prices have strengthened the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for a long time this year, which suppresses precious metal prices. The report suggests a cautious bearish strategy, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and for the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.94% to 1137.50 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21706.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.76% to 5086.80 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.56% to 83.78 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.27%, and the US dollar index was 99.73 [2] - In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. Before the escalation of the geopolitical conflict, US inflation pressure had shown significant signs of relief. The CPI had a moderate month - on - month increase of 0.3%, and the core CPI month - on - month was stable at 0.2%, with the core inflation year - on - year increase at a near - five - year low [2] - The Iranian diplomatic spokesman said that many ships could still pass through the Strait of Hormuz if coordinated with the Iranian Navy. Meanwhile, the Trump administration of the US intended to suspend the Jones Act to increase domestic oil transportation efficiency and stabilize oil prices [2] 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's open interest decreased by 2.47% to 40.98 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price rose 2.43% to 5209.70 dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's open interest increased by 2.72% to 30.57 million lots, and the precipitation funds increased by 2.90% to 56.346 billion yuan; AuT + D's trading volume decreased by 12.13% to 40.35 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.38% to 243.01 tons [6] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's open interest decreased by 9.67% to 11.33 million lots; LBMA silver's closing price rose 6.09% to 88.53 dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's open interest decreased by 0.75% to 48.91 million lots, and the precipitation funds decreased by 2.94% to 29.393 billion yuan; AgT + D's trading volume decreased by 43.61% to 195.49 tons, and the open interest decreased by 1.11% to 2860.266 tons [6] 3.3 ETF Holdings - **Gold**: The holdings of iShare US remained unchanged at 494.04 tons; GBS UK's holdings decreased by 0.00% to 30.59 tons; PHAU UK's holdings decreased by 0.10% to 54.41 tons; GOLD UK's holdings increased by 0.12% to 29.96 tons; SGBS Switzerland's holdings decreased by 0.00% to 35.20 tons [65] - **Silver**: SLV US's closing price fell 2.72% to 77.91 dollars, the holdings decreased by 0.74% to 15539.06 tons, the precipitation funds decreased by 3.31% to 4.3073 billion dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 20.87% to 29.3077 million shares; ETPMAG Australia's holdings remained unchanged at 487.41 tons; PSLV Canada's holdings remained unchanged at 6747.37 tons; CEF Canada's holdings remained unchanged at 1583.02 tons [65]