1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, most varieties in the agricultural sector are volatile. Oils and fats, protein meals, corn, natural rubber, cotton, and pulp are expected to fluctuate, while live pigs and sugar prices are likely to be weak. Synthetic rubber is expected to be moderately strong, and logs are expected to be range - bound [1]. - The overall supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively loose, and palm oil is about to enter the destocking trend. The demand side should focus on biodiesel policies and export performance in the producing areas. Recently, the market has been intertwined with long and short factors, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate [4]. - Near the Spring Festival, downstream stocking is basically completed, trading is light, and the protein meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. After the festival, attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' delivery, restocking, and inventory building [8][9]. - The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. The downward cycle has not ended, but the industry's destocking process is blocked and needs further observation [10]. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively weak, but the expectation is good. The market is expected to fluctuate due to increased capital attention [14]. - The improvement of the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but it needs adjustment in the short term and is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term [17]. - Before the Spring Festival, cotton is expected to fluctuate. After the festival, the terminal demand is expected to pick up, and the price center of gravity is expected to rise [17]. - In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The new sugar - making season is expected to have an oversupply in the global sugar market, and the price has a downward driving force [18]. - The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. After the festival, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - The log market is expected to be range - bound. In the short term, there is no new driving force, and the fundamentals remain loose [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. - **Information**: As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1974,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.60%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the market sentiment is wait - and - see, and the oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. The expectation of destocking of palm oil is weakening, and the soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and bio - diesel policies [4]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The trading of double - meals is light, and the market fluctuates. - **Logic**: The market's expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans has cooled, and the supply peak of Brazilian soybeans is coming. In China, the oil mills are shutting down, and the logistics is stagnating. After the festival, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. - **Information**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract is 2274 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the trading is inactive. After the festival, the selling pressure may increase, and the demand is lackluster. The supply of substitute grains and imported grains may suppress the price of domestic corn [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. - **Price**: On February 9, the national average price of live pigs was 11.71 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 11,565 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter is increasing. In the medium term, the supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, the industry's destocking process is blocked. The demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Before the Spring Festival, it is mainly range - bound. - **Information**: The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials in Thailand's Hoh Ai market has increased. - **Logic**: The rubber price has increased slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The fundamentals are weak, but the expectation is good. The supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by tire enterprises' procurement, but the inventory is increasing rapidly [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the short - term support strength. - **Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the domestic spot price of butadiene has increased. - **Logic**: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the support at the 12,500 yuan/ton mark is strong. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026, and the market sentiment affects the price, but the downside space is limited [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: On February 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 contract was 14,580 yuan/ton. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving, but the textile factories are shutting down for the holiday. The market risk preference is decreasing, and the macro - sentiment is weakening. After the festival, the demand is expected to pick up [17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium and long term. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the end, and the sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term. - **Information**: On February 9, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract was 5261 yuan/ton. As of the first half of January in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil was 40.236 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. - **Logic**: In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the new sugar - making season, and the supply of major producing countries is expected to increase [18]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has not changed. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the terminal and downstream are on holiday. After the festival, the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The bottom support of the pulp futures has weakened, and the downside space is limited [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - gum paper market fluctuates narrowly at a low level. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the trading is expected to decrease, and the market is stable. In February, the number of enterprises choosing to shut down for maintenance may increase, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The log market is weak. - **Logic**: The log market is affected by the suspension of delivery warehouses, but the fundamentals are loose. The valuation has increased, and the supply has decreased in the short term, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the medium term [23]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be range - bound. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring There is no specific data monitoring content provided in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on February 9, 2026. - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2374.89, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.96% to 2710.51, the industrial products index increased by 0.21% to 2278.80, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.58% to 1404.35 [183]. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 9, 2026 was 927.90, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a 5 - day decline of 0.56%, a 1 - month decline of 1.67%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.55% [184].

每经AI快讯，当地时间2月9日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大豆 期货跌0.49%报1109.75美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.41%报428.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌0.28%报 528.25美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a majority of its agricultural futures contracts rise, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural commodities market on February 9 [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Raw sugar futures increased by 1.42%, closing at 14.31 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures rose by 0.85%, ending at 61.58 cents per pound [1] - Coffee futures experienced a gain of 1.31%, closing at 293.10 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures, however, fell by 5.08%, closing at $3,984.00 per ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply has decreased, and the spot price is relatively strong, while Northeast corn is stable. The spot price is still weak in the short - term, but the purchase price at the northern ports is strong today. The price of North China wheat is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The market expects North China corn to be stable before the Spring Festival, while Northeast corn may face selling pressure later. Corn spot prices still have room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the 07 corn contract has limited downside space. The 03 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [4][7][9] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2257 with no change; C2605 closed at 2274, down 5 (-0.22%); C2509 closed at 2301, up 1 (0.04%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2587, up 4 (0.15%); CS2605 closed at 2596, up 2 (0.08%); CS2509 closed at 2618, up 2 (0.08%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in some areas rising slightly. The basis of corn and starch also varied by region. The price difference of corn and starch across different periods and varieties also changed [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: US corn prices have fallen, but the global supply pressure has weakened, and it is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is strong, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the spot price is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. Wheat prices are strong, and corn is still cost - effective. Domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the inventory - building situation of downstream enterprises [4][7] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the corn spot price in Shandong is strong, and the starch price is around 2780 yuan. The starch inventory in Northeast China is stable, and the overall corn starch inventory has declined this week. The starch price mainly depends on corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract oscillated narrowly following corn, and the spot price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [8] - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel, and the 07 and 05 corn contracts can be short - bought on dips. For arbitrage, conduct a reverse spread of 3 - 7 corn and widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips [10] Part 3: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations [11] Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments show the historical trends of North Port's corn ex - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [15][16][17][18][20][21]

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | 红枣 | 震 荡 偏空 | 【行情复盘】 周五 CJ605 合约收盘价 8695 元/吨，日跌幅 0.74%。CJ609 合约收盘价 8920 元/吨， 日跌幅 0.56%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 11888 吨，较上周减少 1255 吨，环比减少 9.55%， 同比增加 12.84%，样本点库存环比下降。 2.昨日河北特级红枣批发价 9.20 元/公斤，日环比+0 元/公斤。 3.昨日广东如意坊市场到货车辆 0 车，日环比+0 车。 4.周五红枣仓单 3350 张，日环比+0 张。 【市场逻辑】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | | | | | | | | 近期红枣期价保持震荡偏弱运行。当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限，节 ...

Group 1: Corn Market Analysis - The corn 03 contract closed at 2268 CNY/ton, with a daily decline of 0.04%, indicating limited overall volatility [4][12] - The spot market is entering a pre-holiday winding down phase, with purchasing and sales slowing down; northern port collection volumes are decreasing, and mainstream prices are maintained in the range of 2270-2280 CNY/ton [4][12] - Downstream demand is weak, with deep processing enterprises announcing reduced purchasing notifications, and feed enterprises primarily executing previous contracts [4][12] - The corn market is in a low volatility and weak game phase before the holiday, with prices constrained; the trading focus is shifting towards post-holiday conditions [4][12] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market Insights - There is speculation in the overseas market regarding new U.S. soybean purchases by China, but the outlook for South American production limits the rebound potential [4][12] - Argentina's soybean is facing dry heat stress, potentially leading to production losses, while the market weighs between Brazilian abundance and Argentine reduction narratives [4][12] - The domestic soybean meal market is stabilizing due to external market influences, with a focus on the arrival of March soybeans and reserve auction rhythms post-holiday [4][12] Group 3: Egg Market Overview - The average spot price for eggs in Hebei is approximately 2.88 CNY/jin, reflecting a slight increase of 0.06 CNY/jin from the previous day [5][13] - The 03 contract's price reflects market expectations of high inventory and weak seasonal demand post-holiday, with limited further downside potential [5][13] - There is a cautionary note regarding the risk of further declines in spot prices if inventory pressures exceed expectations or demand recovery is slow [5][13] Group 4: Live Pig Market Situation - The average price for live pigs in major production areas is about 11.82 CNY/kg, facing pressure after a seasonal rebound before the Spring Festival [7][15] - There is significant supply pressure due to concentrated market releases by breeding enterprises, with a planned slaughter volume of 22.92 million heads in February, a decrease of 17.73% from January [7][15] - The futures market has adequately priced in expectations for price declines, with a high basis level reflecting anticipated price corrections [7][15]

| | 3、仔猪数量来看，2025年1-9月新生仔猪数量环比持续增加（仅7月环比下降），对 | | --- | --- | | | 应今年3月前生猪出栏头数仍呈增加趋势；2025年10、11、12月新生仔猪连续3个月 | | | 环比下降，分别下降1%、0.8%、1.2%，对应今年4月起供给压力有所缓解。 | | | 4、体重来看，生猪出栏体重环比继续回落。截至2月5日生猪出栏均重为124.27公斤 | | | ，较前一周减少0.23公斤，环比降幅扩大。 | | | 5、肥标价差来看，2月6日生猪肥标价差为0.47元/斤，较前一日持平。 | | | 6、仓单数量来看，2月6日生猪期货仓单较前一日增减0手，共计647手。 | | | 7、2月6日农业农村部发布 "关于落实《中共中央国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 | | | 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》的实施意见"，文件提及'强化生猪产能综合调控 | | | ，对头部生猪养殖企业实行年度生产备案管理，有序调控全国能繁母猪存栏量，促 | | | 进市场供需更加适配。 | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | 短期来看，本周进入春节前集中备货阶段，养殖端积极出栏，生猪市场 ...

Futures Market - On February 6, ICE cotton futures closed lower as market participants awaited the upcoming USDA supply and demand report for demand signals [1] - The most actively traded March cotton futures contract fell by 0.7 cents or 1.1%, settling at 61.06 cents per pound [1] - The March cotton contract has declined by 3.3% this week, primarily pressured by overall weakness in the commodity market and a strong dollar [2] Currency Market - The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the dollar against six currencies, fell by 0.34% on Friday but still rose by 0.5% for the week, potentially marking the largest weekly gain since early January [3] - The strengthening of the dollar was catalyzed by President Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair, who is viewed as a hawkish figure not favoring significant rate cuts [3] - A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies [4] Commodity Market Sentiment - The overall commodity market remains weak, with Jim Nunn, a manager at a Tennessee cotton brokerage, stating that there are currently no positive factors in the market [5] - The Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures have risen for four consecutive days due to optimistic demand prospects [5] - Nunn indicated that this situation may lead farmers to plant more soybeans and fewer cotton crops, suggesting a trend where more farmers may abandon cotton planting in favor of soybeans next year [5] USDA Report Expectations - Investors are awaiting the USDA supply and demand report, which is expected to provide future demand forecasts for cotton [5] - The USDA's export sales report showed a net increase of 249,800 bales in U.S. cotton export sales for the week ending January 29, a 23% increase from the previous week but a 5% decrease from the four-week average [5] - Net export sales to China increased by 36,600 bales, while next year's net export sales were 114,900 bales [5] Spot Market - On February 6, the Cotlook A Index was reported at 72.80 cents per pound, down 40 points [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a broad decline in major contracts, indicating a bearish trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] Group 1: Sugar Market - Raw sugar futures fell by 0.91%, closing at 14.14 cents per pound, with a weekly decline of 0.91% [1] Group 2: Cotton Market - Cotton futures decreased by 1.12%, ending at 61.07 cents per pound, reflecting a weekly drop of 3.32% [1] Group 3: Cocoa Market - Cocoa futures dropped by 1.31%, settling at $4,154 per ton, with a slight weekly decline of 0.26% [1] Group 4: Coffee Market - Coffee futures experienced a significant decline of 3.31%, closing at $2.867 per pound, marking a substantial weekly decrease of 13.71% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USDA is set to release the February supply and demand report, which is expected to primarily adjust the demand side for South American soybean production, while U.S. soybean supply data is likely to remain unchanged [1] Group 1: South American Soybean Production - The focus of the upcoming report will be on adjustments to South American soybean production, particularly due to weather conditions affecting Brazil and Argentina [2] - Brazil has experienced excessive rainfall and high temperatures in the south, while Argentina's central region faces drought, impacting soybean growth [4] - As of January 24, Brazil's soybean harvest progress for the 2025/2026 season was at 6.6%, higher than the previous week and last year, but slightly below the five-year average [2] - Multiple consulting firms have raised their estimates for Brazil's soybean production to an average of 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [2] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet - The January report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean exports by 1.46 million tons to 42.86 million tons, but no further adjustments are expected in the February report [3] - The U.S. soybean balance sheet is anticipated to show minimal changes in the upcoming report, as the market awaits further sales data [3] Group 3: Argentina's Weather Issues - Argentina's central soybean-producing region has faced uneven rainfall and drought since December 2025, with 20% of soybean fields experiencing drought conditions [4] - Current estimates for Argentina's soybean production have been lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons, raising concerns about potential further reductions [4] - Argentina's soybean production accounts for about 10% of global output, and its export volumes are significantly lower than those of the U.S. and Brazil [4] Group 4: Market Expectations and Forecasts - Analysts expect Brazil's soybean production to exceed 180 million tons, which may limit price increases [8] - The USDA's February report is projected to show global soybean ending stocks at 125.3 million tons, with a range between 121.8 million and 127 million tons [11] - The U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are estimated at 347 million bushels, with a range between 265 million and 375 million bushels [13]