每经AI快讯，当地时间2月9日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大豆 期货跌0.49%报1109.75美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.41%报428.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌0.28%报 528.25美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a majority of its agricultural futures contracts rise, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural commodities market on February 9 [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Raw sugar futures increased by 1.42%, closing at 14.31 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures rose by 0.85%, ending at 61.58 cents per pound [1] - Coffee futures experienced a gain of 1.31%, closing at 293.10 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures, however, fell by 5.08%, closing at $3,984.00 per ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply has decreased, and the spot price is relatively strong, while Northeast corn is stable. The spot price is still weak in the short - term, but the purchase price at the northern ports is strong today. The price of North China wheat is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The market expects North China corn to be stable before the Spring Festival, while Northeast corn may face selling pressure later. Corn spot prices still have room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the 07 corn contract has limited downside space. The 03 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [4][7][9] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2257 with no change; C2605 closed at 2274, down 5 (-0.22%); C2509 closed at 2301, up 1 (0.04%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2587, up 4 (0.15%); CS2605 closed at 2596, up 2 (0.08%); CS2509 closed at 2618, up 2 (0.08%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in some areas rising slightly. The basis of corn and starch also varied by region. The price difference of corn and starch across different periods and varieties also changed [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: US corn prices have fallen, but the global supply pressure has weakened, and it is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports is strong, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the spot price is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. Wheat prices are strong, and corn is still cost - effective. Domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the inventory - building situation of downstream enterprises [4][7] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the corn spot price in Shandong is strong, and the starch price is around 2780 yuan. The starch inventory in Northeast China is stable, and the overall corn starch inventory has declined this week. The starch price mainly depends on corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract oscillated narrowly following corn, and the spot price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [8] - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel, and the 07 and 05 corn contracts can be short - bought on dips. For arbitrage, conduct a reverse spread of 3 - 7 corn and widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips [10] Part 3: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations [11] Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments show the historical trends of North Port's corn ex - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [15][16][17][18][20][21]

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | 红枣 | 震 荡 偏空 | 【行情复盘】 周五 CJ605 合约收盘价 8695 元/吨，日跌幅 0.74%。CJ609 合约收盘价 8920 元/吨， 日跌幅 0.56%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 11888 吨，较上周减少 1255 吨，环比减少 9.55%， 同比增加 12.84%，样本点库存环比下降。 2.昨日河北特级红枣批发价 9.20 元/公斤，日环比+0 元/公斤。 3.昨日广东如意坊市场到货车辆 0 车，日环比+0 车。 4.周五红枣仓单 3350 张，日环比+0 张。 【市场逻辑】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | | | | | | | | 近期红枣期价保持震荡偏弱运行。当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限，节 ...

Group 1: Corn Market Analysis - The corn 03 contract closed at 2268 CNY/ton, with a daily decline of 0.04%, indicating limited overall volatility [4][12] - The spot market is entering a pre-holiday winding down phase, with purchasing and sales slowing down; northern port collection volumes are decreasing, and mainstream prices are maintained in the range of 2270-2280 CNY/ton [4][12] - Downstream demand is weak, with deep processing enterprises announcing reduced purchasing notifications, and feed enterprises primarily executing previous contracts [4][12] - The corn market is in a low volatility and weak game phase before the holiday, with prices constrained; the trading focus is shifting towards post-holiday conditions [4][12] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market Insights - There is speculation in the overseas market regarding new U.S. soybean purchases by China, but the outlook for South American production limits the rebound potential [4][12] - Argentina's soybean is facing dry heat stress, potentially leading to production losses, while the market weighs between Brazilian abundance and Argentine reduction narratives [4][12] - The domestic soybean meal market is stabilizing due to external market influences, with a focus on the arrival of March soybeans and reserve auction rhythms post-holiday [4][12] Group 3: Egg Market Overview - The average spot price for eggs in Hebei is approximately 2.88 CNY/jin, reflecting a slight increase of 0.06 CNY/jin from the previous day [5][13] - The 03 contract's price reflects market expectations of high inventory and weak seasonal demand post-holiday, with limited further downside potential [5][13] - There is a cautionary note regarding the risk of further declines in spot prices if inventory pressures exceed expectations or demand recovery is slow [5][13] Group 4: Live Pig Market Situation - The average price for live pigs in major production areas is about 11.82 CNY/kg, facing pressure after a seasonal rebound before the Spring Festival [7][15] - There is significant supply pressure due to concentrated market releases by breeding enterprises, with a planned slaughter volume of 22.92 million heads in February, a decrease of 17.73% from January [7][15] - The futures market has adequately priced in expectations for price declines, with a high basis level reflecting anticipated price corrections [7][15]

| | 3、仔猪数量来看，2025年1-9月新生仔猪数量环比持续增加（仅7月环比下降），对 | | --- | --- | | | 应今年3月前生猪出栏头数仍呈增加趋势；2025年10、11、12月新生仔猪连续3个月 | | | 环比下降，分别下降1%、0.8%、1.2%，对应今年4月起供给压力有所缓解。 | | | 4、体重来看，生猪出栏体重环比继续回落。截至2月5日生猪出栏均重为124.27公斤 | | | ，较前一周减少0.23公斤，环比降幅扩大。 | | | 5、肥标价差来看，2月6日生猪肥标价差为0.47元/斤，较前一日持平。 | | | 6、仓单数量来看，2月6日生猪期货仓单较前一日增减0手，共计647手。 | | | 7、2月6日农业农村部发布 "关于落实《中共中央国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 | | | 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》的实施意见"，文件提及'强化生猪产能综合调控 | | | ，对头部生猪养殖企业实行年度生产备案管理，有序调控全国能繁母猪存栏量，促 | | | 进市场供需更加适配。 | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | 短期来看，本周进入春节前集中备货阶段，养殖端积极出栏，生猪市场 ...

Futures Market - On February 6, ICE cotton futures closed lower as market participants awaited the upcoming USDA supply and demand report for demand signals [1] - The most actively traded March cotton futures contract fell by 0.7 cents or 1.1%, settling at 61.06 cents per pound [1] - The March cotton contract has declined by 3.3% this week, primarily pressured by overall weakness in the commodity market and a strong dollar [2] Currency Market - The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the dollar against six currencies, fell by 0.34% on Friday but still rose by 0.5% for the week, potentially marking the largest weekly gain since early January [3] - The strengthening of the dollar was catalyzed by President Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair, who is viewed as a hawkish figure not favoring significant rate cuts [3] - A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies [4] Commodity Market Sentiment - The overall commodity market remains weak, with Jim Nunn, a manager at a Tennessee cotton brokerage, stating that there are currently no positive factors in the market [5] - The Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures have risen for four consecutive days due to optimistic demand prospects [5] - Nunn indicated that this situation may lead farmers to plant more soybeans and fewer cotton crops, suggesting a trend where more farmers may abandon cotton planting in favor of soybeans next year [5] USDA Report Expectations - Investors are awaiting the USDA supply and demand report, which is expected to provide future demand forecasts for cotton [5] - The USDA's export sales report showed a net increase of 249,800 bales in U.S. cotton export sales for the week ending January 29, a 23% increase from the previous week but a 5% decrease from the four-week average [5] - Net export sales to China increased by 36,600 bales, while next year's net export sales were 114,900 bales [5] Spot Market - On February 6, the Cotlook A Index was reported at 72.80 cents per pound, down 40 points [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a broad decline in major contracts, indicating a bearish trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] Group 1: Sugar Market - Raw sugar futures fell by 0.91%, closing at 14.14 cents per pound, with a weekly decline of 0.91% [1] Group 2: Cotton Market - Cotton futures decreased by 1.12%, ending at 61.07 cents per pound, reflecting a weekly drop of 3.32% [1] Group 3: Cocoa Market - Cocoa futures dropped by 1.31%, settling at $4,154 per ton, with a slight weekly decline of 0.26% [1] Group 4: Coffee Market - Coffee futures experienced a significant decline of 3.31%, closing at $2.867 per pound, marking a substantial weekly decrease of 13.71% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USDA is set to release the February supply and demand report, which is expected to primarily adjust the demand side for South American soybean production, while U.S. soybean supply data is likely to remain unchanged [1] Group 1: South American Soybean Production - The focus of the upcoming report will be on adjustments to South American soybean production, particularly due to weather conditions affecting Brazil and Argentina [2] - Brazil has experienced excessive rainfall and high temperatures in the south, while Argentina's central region faces drought, impacting soybean growth [4] - As of January 24, Brazil's soybean harvest progress for the 2025/2026 season was at 6.6%, higher than the previous week and last year, but slightly below the five-year average [2] - Multiple consulting firms have raised their estimates for Brazil's soybean production to an average of 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [2] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet - The January report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean exports by 1.46 million tons to 42.86 million tons, but no further adjustments are expected in the February report [3] - The U.S. soybean balance sheet is anticipated to show minimal changes in the upcoming report, as the market awaits further sales data [3] Group 3: Argentina's Weather Issues - Argentina's central soybean-producing region has faced uneven rainfall and drought since December 2025, with 20% of soybean fields experiencing drought conditions [4] - Current estimates for Argentina's soybean production have been lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons, raising concerns about potential further reductions [4] - Argentina's soybean production accounts for about 10% of global output, and its export volumes are significantly lower than those of the U.S. and Brazil [4] Group 4: Market Expectations and Forecasts - Analysts expect Brazil's soybean production to exceed 180 million tons, which may limit price increases [8] - The USDA's February report is projected to show global soybean ending stocks at 125.3 million tons, with a range between 121.8 million and 127 million tons [11] - The U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are estimated at 347 million bushels, with a range between 265 million and 375 million bushels [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton supply-demand pattern in the 25/26 season is generally loose, and the domestic cotton production has increased significantly. Although there is a high consumption expectation due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, the overall upward drive is insufficient. The short-term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season has entered a definite surplus. Although the short-term trade flow is in a tight balance, the medium and long-term surplus pattern will suppress the sugar price. However, the long - term sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The short and medium - term domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken, and the demand for paper pulp will have marginal incremental growth. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level [7][8] Summary by Related Content Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract yesterday was 14,610 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,743 yuan/ton, a change of +5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 16,012 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton [1] - In December, Turkey's cotton imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In the 2025/26 season, Turkey's cumulative cotton imports were 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Brazilian cotton was the main import source, accounting for 38%, followed by US cotton at 25% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is loose, US cotton exports have weakened again, and terminal demand is weak. The short - term ICE US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, US cotton is at a low - valuation range with limited further decline space, but the upward drive is not clear [2] - Domestically, the 25/26 season has seen a significant increase in cotton production, and commercial inventories are seasonally rising. Traders' willingness to hold goods is strong, and spot transactions are good. Textile enterprises are stocking up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply - demand is expected to be balanced, but there is a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to limited domestic demand support and the pressure of internal - external price differences [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5,224 yuan/ton, a change of +14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,300 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,150 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, the same as the same period last season. The cumulative sugar - cane crushing was 87.029 million tons, an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar - production rate of 9.27% [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season is in a definite surplus. Although the short - term trade flow is in a tight - balance pattern, it will tend to be loose in the short and medium - term, suppressing the sugar - price rebound space. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic due to factors such as the expected decline in Brazil's sugar - production ratio and potential impacts of El Nino on India's precipitation [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the current supply is seasonally growing. The pressure of sugar imports in the fourth quarter is high, but the imports are expected to return to a low level in the off - season. The syrup volume in December has also decreased significantly after the adjustment of the control scope [4] Strategy - Neutral. In the short and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out, and the focus is on the domestic import - related policy changes in 2026 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5,254 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-1.31%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,335 yuan/ton, a change of -40 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp changed from stable to falling. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The downstream's pulp - purchasing mentality was rational, and the market transaction atmosphere was light. The prices of some imported pulp grades in various regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The proportion of trade pulp shipped to Europe is expected to increase, and the domestic import pressure may be relieved to some extent [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity expansion of finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry's profits were squeezed. Downstream paper mills' raw - material purchasing willingness was low, and domestic port inventories were at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and white cardboard and household paper will be the main growth points of demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement in pulp fundamentals is limited, and the port inventory remains high. The short - term pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level [8]