Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures contracts closed lower across the board on September 22, with significant declines in soybean, corn, and wheat futures [1][2]. Group 2 - Soybean futures fell by 1.39%, closing at 1011.25 cents per bushel [1]. - Corn futures decreased by 0.53%, ending at 421.75 cents per bushel [1]. - Wheat futures experienced a decline of 2.39%, closing at 510.00 cents per bushel [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: None - **Bullish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Corn, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish (★★★)**: None - **Bearish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bearish (★☆☆)**: Pig, Egg [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: None Core Views - The market is waiting for the performance of domestic soybean purchases later this month, and the overall supply of new soybean crops this year is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the soybean import trade [2]. - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean market is waiting for the purchase performance later this month, and the overall supply of new crops is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the import trade [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Pig - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. Egg - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weakening fluctuating trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time. For arbitrage and options, it's advisable to wait and see [9][15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Futures: The closing prices of most cotton and yarn contracts decreased. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,610, down 110; the CY09 contract closed at 19,990, down 250. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed, with the trading volume of the CF01 contract increasing by 90,576 and the open interest increasing by 13,028 [3] - Spot: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,224 yuan/ton, down 95; the Cot A price was 78.40 cents/pound, down 0.25. The prices of some other spot products also had corresponding changes [3] - Spreads: In cotton and yarn spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was -5, down 20; the 1 - 5 month spread of yarn was -465, down 85. There were also changes in cross - variety and internal - external spreads [3] Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of September 20, 2025, the cotton planting area in India was 10.964 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The planting areas in some main producing states had different changes. The final area is expected to be around 10.97 - 11 million hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of about 3% [6] - In 2025, China's cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The national expected total output was 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013 [7] - As of September 16, 2025, the net long position rate of ICE cotton futures funds was -23.31% (a week - on - week increase of 3.73 percentage points) [7] Trading Logic - New cotton is gradually entering the acquisition period, and the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase more than expected, and the acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries is average. It is expected that there will be no large - scale rush to purchase. The acquisition price is expected to be around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand in September has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season is expected to be average [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton will show a slightly weakening fluctuating trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The price of the pure cotton yarn market remained stable over the weekend, with general shipment and weak peak - season characteristics, mainly short - term orders. The cash flow of pure cotton spinning enterprises has improved, but inland spinning enterprises are still slightly in the red, so the willingness to increase the operating rate significantly is not high [11] - The shipment of all - cotton grey cloth remained stable with partial weakness. The demand for all - cotton denim was okay, and the order situation this year was better than that of regular cotton cloth. The situation of weaving factories in Shandong was stable, while those in Hubei were under pressure, and some weaving factories reduced the operating rate [11] Options - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton on September 22, 2025, decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601C14000.CZC, CF601P13600.CZC, and CF601P13400.CZC were 12.6%, 11.8%, and 11.9% respectively [13] - Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7625 for positions and 0.7995 for trading volume. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and CF inter - month spreads, etc., which visually show the price trends and relationships of relevant products [18][20][25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: The Malaysian crude palm oil futures market is oscillating narrowly. With potential positive factors like slowing production growth and increasing exports, there's a chance for it to strengthen. Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit if they can effectively stay above the moving average. After breaking through 9,500 yuan, a new upward space may open, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: The negative impact of the US EPA's proposal is almost digested. If the upcoming China - US summit mentions China's purchase of US soybeans, CBOT soybeans will rise, boosting CBOT soybean oil. Domestic consumption is good during the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period, and soybean oil export news also supports the market. The Q4 increase in soybean supply may drag down forward contracts, while the rise in CBOT soybeans may boost near - term contracts [1]. Sugar - The Brazilian sugar production in late August exceeded market expectations, causing the raw sugar price to decline significantly. The domestic sugar market is under pressure due to increased imports in August, weakening raw sugar prices, weakening processed sugar quotes, restricted sugar transportation in Guangxi, and a slowdown in spot purchases as the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking nears the end. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern [3]. Cotton - On the supply side, there is little willingness to rush to buy seed cotton, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price, resulting in significant hedging pressure on cotton prices in the medium term. On the demand side, the downstream industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than in previous years. Overall, domestic cotton prices may face pressure in the medium term [4]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market will remain at a low level or may have a slight rebound due to the influence of the rhythm of corn supply and price support. In the medium term, the weak situation remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - purchasing rhythm and weather conditions [6]. Eggs - With the egg - laying hen inventory at a high level and the egg - laying rate and egg weight increasing after the weather cools down, the egg supply is sufficient. As the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival approach, cold - storage eggs are being released, increasing supply pressure. Recently, egg prices have declined, reducing traders' purchasing intentions. However, as the festivals approach, supermarkets and e - commerce may increase their egg purchases for promotions. It is expected that egg prices will oscillate within a bottom - range [10]. Meal - The uncertainty of the biodiesel blending policy and the unclear demand outlook for US soybeans suppress US soybean oil and soybeans. The US soybean supply - strong and demand - weak pattern continues. Although the concern about the Q4 supply in China is gradually alleviated, the spot market is loose, and the terminal lacks stocking enthusiasm. There are many short - term negative factors for meal, but there is also a basis for a subsequent rebound [13]. Pigs - The supply pressure from farmers' increased slaughter is being realized. Although demand is slowly recovering, it is uncertain whether it can absorb the supply. The weight of retail pigs is still high, and there is continuous slaughter pressure before the double festivals. After the Ministry of Agriculture's meeting showed an intention to strengthen production capacity regulation, the slaughter pressure on farmers may increase, mainly affecting the market after mid - next year. In the short term, although there is state purchasing, the spot price lacks support, and near - term contracts will maintain a weak adjustment [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 19, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,620 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.94%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,328 yuan, up 44 yuan (0.53%). The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,300 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.32%); the futures price of P2601 was 9,316 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.13%). The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,180 yuan, up 120 yuan (1.19%); the futures price of OI601 was 10,068 yuan, up 84 yuan (0.84%) [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 680 yuan, up 50 yuan (6.85%); the 2601 contract spread was - 1,062 yuan, up 24 yuan (2.21%). The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1,560 yuan, up 40 yuan (2.63%); the 2601 contract spread was 1,740 yuan, up 40 yuan (2.35%) [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of sugar 2601 was 5,461 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (- 0.24%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5,446 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.18%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.18 cents/pound, up 0.05 cents (0.31%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5,830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); in Kunming, it was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.09%) [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 1,000 million tons, up 114 million tons (12.87%) [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of cotton 2605 was 13,705 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.15%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13,720 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (- 0.33%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.30 cents/pound, down 0.62 cents (- 0.93%) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,198 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan (- 0.33%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,283 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (- 0.24%) [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons (- 18.6%); the industrial inventory was 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons (- 3.5%) [4]. Corn - **Corn**: On September 22, the price of corn 2511 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.41%); the basis was 112 yuan, up 9 yuan (8.74%) [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 was 2,463 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (- 0.32%); the basis was 97 yuan, up 8 yuan (8.99%) [6]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,112 yuan/500KG, down 20 yuan (- 0.64%); the price of the egg 10 - contract was 3,025 yuan/500KG, down 18 yuan (- 0.59%) [10]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.60 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled hen price was 4.67 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan (1.30%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.50, up 0.07 (2.88%); the breeding profit was - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 4.71 yuan (20.84%) [10]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2,950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 3,014 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.70%); the basis was - 64 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 48.84%) [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan, up 30 yuan (1.17%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2,522 yuan, up 52 yuan (2.11%); the basis was 78 yuan, down 22 yuan (- 22.00%) [13]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean No.1 main contract was 3,904 yuan, unchanged [13]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of the pig 2511 contract was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of the pig 2601 contract was 13,350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.15%) [15]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 12,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong, it was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 12,370 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily sample slaughter volume was 149,450 heads, up 842 heads (0.57%); the weekly white - striped pig price was 0.00 yuan, down 19.97 yuan (- 100.00%); the weekly piglet price was 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price was 32.50 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan (- 0.03%); the weekly slaughter weight was 128.45 kg, up 0.13 kg (0.10%); the weekly self - breeding profit was - 24 yuan/head, down 41.3 yuan (- 245.13%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 199 yuan/head, down 37.4 yuan (- 23.08%); the monthly fertile sow inventory was 4,042 million heads, down 1 million heads (- 0.02%) [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, international supply - demand, trading volume, macro news, and fund flows. It details the price movements of various commodities, the impact of weather on crops, international trade policies, and macro - economic events that may influence the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 & 02 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX crude oil, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented. For example, BMD palm oil 12 closed at 4424.00 with a - 0.23% decline [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Spot prices and basis for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For instance, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China has a spot price of 9450 and a basis of 100 [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes for the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are provided. The US dollar index is at 97.64 with a 0.29% increase [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions**: In the US, soybean - producing states will have generally high temperatures and above - median precipitation from September 24 - 28. The Midwest will have continuous showers, and the west may experience heavy rain, which may affect crop maturity and harvest [3][5]. - **International Supply - Demand**: Malaysia has raised its October CPO reference price to 4268.68 ringgit/ton, keeping the export tariff at 10%. As of September 16, CBOT soybean long - positions increased by 13,986 to 167,351. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate reached 0.7%, higher than previous years. Argentina's 2025/26 grain exports may reach a record 105.1 million tons [7][8]. 04 Macro News - **International News**: US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, risking a government shutdown. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the last two Fed meetings [16]. - **Domestic News**: On September 19, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1128, up 43 points. The PBOC conducted 3543 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos, with a net injection of 1243 billion yuan on that day and 5623 billion yuan for the week [18]. 05 Fund Flows On September 19, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 8.463 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 5.599 billion yuan, including 250 million yuan in agricultural products, 1.083 billion yuan in chemicals, 1.118 billion yuan in black - series, and 3.149 billion yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 13.884 billion yuan, and bond futures had a net outflow of 188 million yuan [21]. 06 Trading Volume - On September 19, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 5500 tons, a 74% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 99,100 tons, an increase of 41,400 tons from the previous day [13]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills from September 13 - 19 was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. It is expected to decrease slightly in the 39th week [13].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 22, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: For September 22, 2025, the main domestic soybean meal futures contracts showed varying trends. The closing prices of contracts 2601, 2509, and 2511 were 3014, 2899, and 2985 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.43%, 0.35%, and 0.57%. The trading volumes were 895,606, 5,531, and 63,022 respectively, and the open interest changes were -50,756, 1,848, and -3,744 respectively [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The weather for the new - season US soybeans continued to deteriorate, with the latest good - to - excellent rate dropping to 63%, lower than the same period last year, and the drought - affected area rising from 22% a week ago to 33%. The current weather pattern is similar to last year, and there may be adjustments to the yield per unit in the October report [6]. - **Market Focus**: The market focused on the Sino - US economic and trade relations negotiation. From the 14th - 17th, Sino - US representatives held talks in Spain, reaching a general framework agreement on the TikTok incident. However, no further news was reported later in the week. In Brazil, there was sporadic rainfall this week, and the sowing time of new - season soybeans may still be delayed [6]. Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the CBOT price lacks drivers and maintains a narrow - range fluctuation. Externally, attention should be paid to weather and economic and trade negotiations. Domestic soybean meal has been significantly weaker than the external market this week. Due to the slightly bearish USDA report in September and the relatively smooth Sino - US negotiations, the market's long - position risk - aversion sentiment is strong. It is recommended that investors reduce their positions to avoid risks before the National Day. Under the assumption of unchanged tariffs, the long - position window may be in the fourth quarter [6]. Group 3: Industry News - USDA: In September, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season was 4.301 billion bushels, the expected ending stocks were 300 million bushels, and the expected yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, all slightly higher than market expectations [7]. - USDA Crop Growth Report: As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, and the defoliation rate was 41% [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - There are multiple data charts including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][13]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts decline on September 19, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.50% to 16.18 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.90% to 66.30 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 0.19% to $7219.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures experienced a significant drop of 4.08%, closing at 365.30 cents per pound [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on September 19, with soybean futures down by 1.11% at 1026.00 cents per bushel, corn futures up by 0.12% at 424.25 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down by 0.38% at 522.25 cents per bushel [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean, Corn, Eggs [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade relations. In the long - term, some products like soybean meal and bean - palm oil have potential upward trends, while others like Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybean decline slows down with price hovering at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual acquisition performance in the Northeast after late September and the verification of the expected improvement in trade relations for imported soybeans [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean meal 2601 decreased positions by over 50,000 lots and rose 0.43%. Supply is sufficient in Q4, and there may be a gap in Q1 next year. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The decline of soybean oil and palm oil slows down with a small rebound. Overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September shows differences. In the long - term, they can be considered for buying at low prices under the support of overseas biodiesel policies [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed prices rise with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. Canadian rapeseed continues to decline. The support of domestic supply bottlenecks for rapeseed prices remains, and attention should be paid to the expected trend of economic and trade relations [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low. Spot prices vary in different regions. After the enthusiasm for new grain acquisition fades, Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - Both spot and futures prices of live hogs continue to decline, hitting new lows this year. The supply pressure is large, and the bearish sentiment persists after the futures price breaks through the key resistance level [8] Eggs - Egg futures continue to reduce positions with a weak near - term and strong far - term pattern. The spot price has回调 for two consecutive days. For the far - month contracts in H1 next year, long positions can be considered, while attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds for near - month contracts [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean - related products**: Uncertainties in US soybean biodiesel policies and potential Sino - US soybean trade negotiations have led to price fluctuations. Domestic soybean products face supply - side pressures, with prices expected to be weak in the short - term [3][5][8]. - **Rapeseed - related products**: Temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce imports, but alternative sources can partially compensate. If imports from Canada significantly decrease, domestic rapeseed oil and meal may experience inventory reduction [3][4][6]. - **Palm oil**: Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory - building period, but production growth is expected to slow. Indonesian biodiesel policies may support prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - **Corn and corn starch**: Externally, factors like Fed rate - cut expectations and US corn exports support prices, but northern hemisphere corn harvests and inventory - building expectations limit upside. Domestically, the market is in a tug - of - war, with prices expected to remain low in the short - term [7]. - **Peanuts**: New - season peanuts are expected to have a bumper harvest, and falling production costs put pressure on prices. However, Mid - Autumn Festival stocking provides some support, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Livestock products**: Pig prices are weak due to over - supply and low feed prices. Egg prices are also under pressure from supply, but consumption during the peak season may provide some support [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 11 | New domestic soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, and US soybean policies face obstacles. Supply is expected to increase. | 3800 - 3830 | 3950 - 4000 | Sideways to bearish | Hold short positions [8][13] | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. | 3600 - 3630 | 3770 - 3800 | Bearish | Light - short positions [5][13] | | | Peanut 11 | New - season bumper harvest, cost reduction, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support. | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see [9][13] | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Weak fundamentals and continued inventory - building. | 8200 - 8230 | 8450 - 8500 | Bearish | Wait and see [3][13] | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and potential inventory reduction. | 9500 - 9600 | 10300 - 10333 | Sideways to bullish | Light - long positions [3][4][13] | | | Palm oil 01 | Poor production performance in Malaysia and potential weakening of exports. | 9200 - 9208 | 9700 - 9736 | Sideways to bullish | Light - long positions [4][13] | | Proteins | Soybean meal 01 | Obstacles in US biodiesel promotion and uncertainties in Sino - US trade. | 2900 - 2950 | 3030 - 3050 | Bearish | Light - short positions [5][13] | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and poor cost - performance. | 2365 - 2400 | 2572 - 2584 | Sideways to bearish | Wait and see [6][13] | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Bearish fundamentals. | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously [7][13] | | | Starch 11 | Corn price decline and relatively loose supply. | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously [7][13] | | Livestock | Pig 11 | Feed price rebound and strong capacity - reduction expectations. | 12800 - 13000 | 13000 - 13800 | Searching for a bottom | Switch to wait - and - see [10][13] | | | Egg 11 | Capacity pressure and peak - season consumption expectations. | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Searching for a bottom | Buy on dips [10][13] | 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery arbitrage**: For most varieties, the recommended strategy is to wait and see, except for soybean meal 3 - 5 (positive spread), pig 1 - 3 (buy near - term and sell far - term on dips), and egg 10 - 1 (buy near - term and sell far - term on dips) [14][15]. - **Inter - commodity arbitrage**: For some oil and protein products, different strategies such as bearish, bullish, and waiting - and - seeing are recommended [15]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - Basis data for various commodities such as soybeans, oils, proteins, energy products, and livestock are provided, showing price changes and basis fluctuations [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Tables 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily data**: Import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates are presented, including CNF prices, landed duty - paid prices, and break - even soybean meal costs [18][19]. - **Weekly data**: Inventory and operating rate data for soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts are provided, reflecting supply - side changes [20][21]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily data**: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are given [21]. - **Weekly data**: Data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rates and inventory are presented [22]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Daily data**: Data on live pig prices, piglet prices, pork wholesale prices, and related ratios are provided, showing the current state of the pig market [23]. - **Weekly data**: Key data for eggs and live pigs, including supply, demand, profit, and related prices, are presented [25][26][27]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (pigs and eggs)**: Charts show the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices and related data, helping to analyze market trends [29][32][33]. - **Oils and oilseeds**: Charts display data on Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, and related basis and spreads, as well as data on soybean oil and peanut - related indicators [41][52][56]. - **Feed**: Charts present data on corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal, including prices, inventory, consumption, and spreads [60][64][77]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Charts show the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as corn option trading volume, open interest, and related ratios [94][95]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Charts show the warehouse receipt data for rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [99][100][101].