Copper - Overnight copper prices showed narrow fluctuations, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The macroeconomic environment indicates a cooling job market in the U.S., with November non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. This data confirms a cooling job market, but its impact on the Federal Reserve's view on potential rate cuts in January remains uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in January has increased again [3][11] - The U.S. December Markit Composite PMI preliminary value is 53, below expectations of 53.9 and the previous value of 54.2, indicating a slowdown in order growth and rising price indices. Domestically, the Central Financial Office emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a top priority for next year, continuing a moderately loose monetary policy [3][11] - Inventory levels show LME copper stocks at 165,875 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,652 tons to 412,444 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,558 tons to 45,784 tons, and BC copper increased by 1,012 tons to 6,977 tons. The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting may introduce macroeconomic disturbances, leading to cautious sentiment in overseas financial markets [3][11] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Overnight LME nickel fell by 0.28% to $14,255 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.66% to 111,890 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons. The LME 0-3 month spread remains negative, and the import nickel spread is stable at 400 yuan per ton [12] - Nickel iron prices remain stable, and the stainless steel spot market shows improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel at 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55%. However, the raw material prices are under pressure due to falling nickel prices and weakening demand [12] - The domestic inventory of primary nickel is increasing again, and the basic fundamentals are dragging nickel prices into a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [12] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,553 yuan per ton, up 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2602 closing at 21,825 yuan per ton, up 0.14%. Aluminum alloy prices increased slightly, with AD2602 closing at 20,925 yuan per ton, up 0.05% [13][14] - The SMM alumina price has fallen to 2,787 yuan per ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts have expanded to 100 yuan per ton. The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [13][14] - Domestic mining recovery is low, and external mining prices have shown slight declines. The market is gradually adjusting to a new trend of weak supply and strong demand for aluminum prices, with expectations of continued high prices [13][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,365 yuan per ton, down 0.59%. The reference price for industrial silicon is stable at 9,580 yuan per ton. Polysilicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 58,600 yuan per ton, up 1.48% [15] - The market is currently focused on hedging contracts or undelivered previous orders, with industrial silicon showing no clear trend and continuing to oscillate. The exchange has implemented measures to ease volatility in polysilicon [15] - The market is experiencing a disconnect between spot oversupply and warehouse shortages, with no upward driving force for the spot market. However, the lack of significant warehouse registration provides some support for the futures market [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 650 yuan per ton to 95,150 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 650 yuan per ton to 92,650 yuan per ton [16] - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with spodumene lithium production rising by 260 tons to 13,744 tons. December lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons [16] - The market is experiencing resource supply disturbances, with expectations of production recovery weakening, leading to price increases. Even in the off-season, prices may weaken, but downstream stocking intentions are expected to remain strong [16]

一、行情回顾与展望 多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current stage of spot supply and demand for copper is still tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts. The zinc market has a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. The lead market is affected by overseas surplus pressure, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton. The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is more reasonable to short at high positions. The tin market emphasizes high - position risks. The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, and the price is in a strong shock. The industrial silicon market has a complex situation with supply reduction expectations and price fluctuations. The polysilicon market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Directory Copper - **Market situation**: LME copper briefly reached nearly $12,000, with short - term fluctuations around $11,900. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the market is concerned about the short - term balance - sheet expansion. Domestic high copper prices suppress consumption, and the social inventory of SW copper has increased to 164,500 tons. The goal of the price increase promoted by funds has basically been achieved, and some investment banks may raise the 2028 price target. The global visible inventory is high, and the surplus of refined copper is relatively stable in the UK market [1] - **Trend**: The current spot supply and demand are tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. Pay close attention to the phased reduction of positions, and be cautious about the performance of the M10 moving average. Old orders and new enterprises should wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea, which has been shut down for half a year, has been approved to restart, and there is an expectation of lower ore prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and the inventory has increased by 102,000 tons to 4.585 million tons. After the economic meeting, relevant domestic themes have fermented, but the fundamental pressure is difficult to change, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas monetary policy is loosening, and there is policy expectation after the domestic economic meeting. The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum market is relatively balanced, and the price is high. The short - term shock - strengthening trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line, and if it is broken, the trend will turn to shock [1] Zinc - **Market situation**: After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet last week, the supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the export window has opened. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 64,500 tons. The IME plans to limit positions on key contracts on July 6, and the term structure of LME zinc has changed from B to C. The domestic refineries' zinc ingot supply is expected to decline by about 25,000 tons in December, and the social inventory of zinc has decreased to 128,200 tons. Some projects are rushing to work at the end of the year, and the orders for galvanized pipes are good [1] - **Trend**: The inventory structure at home and abroad has converged, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. Shanghai zinc is not regarded as a short - selling variety in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 22,800 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Market situation**: The export window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 235,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot is at a discount of $31.61/ton. The domestic lead concentrate market has tight supply, and some refineries are under maintenance. The downstream demand for lead - acid batteries is good at the end of the year, but the export is affected by anti - dumping duties [1] - **Trend**: The supply of lead ingots at home and abroad is sufficient, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Shanghai nickel is under pressure and falling, and the stainless - steel price has also declined. The spot trading is extremely sluggish, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is high, and the support of high - nickel iron price rebound is weakening [1] - **Trend**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel is increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak. It is more reasonable to short at high positions [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has continued to rise last week, showing the characteristics of "increasing positions and rising, reducing positions and adjusting", mainly driven by domestic funds. The market is concerned about the security situation in the east of Congo (Kinshasa) and northern Nigeria. The export volume of Indonesia in November reached a high of 2,458 tons. The potential consumption of the tin market may show a growth rate similar to that of copper and aluminum affected by the long - term global macro - economic trend, but the consumption structure will be more concentrated. The domestic and foreign tin inventories have increased [1] - **Trend**: Continue to emphasize high - position risks, and hold short - call options as the 2001 contract options are about to expire [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded in shock, and the market trading is active. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 35,200 yuan/ton. The demand side is strong, with expected bright performance in new - energy vehicle sales in December and a supply - demand boom in the energy - storage market. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [1] - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong shock, and the short - selling side is relatively disadvantaged [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price of the main contract of industrial silicon has fallen to 8,200 yuan/ton, and then rebounded to 8,400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to stop production. The cost of petroleum coke has slightly decreased, and other costs are stable. The supply is expected to decrease due to weather and other reasons. The demand for polysilicon is stable, and the inventory of industrial silicon has increased by 3,000 tons to 661,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The establishment of the industrial silicon platform boosts sentiment [1] Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise, and the 05 main contract is expected to break through the 3,000 - yuan/ton mark. The production of polysilicon in December has a limited month - on - month decline, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased by 16.5% month - on - month. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased by 2,000 tons to 293,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The futures and spot prices show different trends. The market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, and it will maintain wide - range fluctuations before the acquisition plan is further implemented [1]

Core Viewpoint - The newly established polysilicon integration platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Guanghe Qiancheng"), held its first meeting to discuss market price maintenance and production strategies among key stakeholders in the Chinese photovoltaic industry [1][4]. Group 1: Company Formation and Structure - Guanghe Qiancheng was officially established with a registered capital of 3 billion RMB, located in Chaoyang District, Beijing, and its business scope includes technology services, consulting, and management [3]. - The meeting included prominent figures such as Liu Hanyuan, Chairman of Tongwei Group, and Zhu Gongshan, Chairman of GCL Group, along with leaders from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association [2]. Group 2: Market Price and Production Strategy - Discussions emphasized the importance of adhering to national regulations that prevent polysilicon manufacturers from selling below their total cost price, including taxes [4]. - It was noted that the expected tax-inclusive price for polysilicon in December 2025 is projected to be slightly higher than current market prices, which range from 45,000 to 55,000 RMB per ton [4]. - Forecasts for 2026 suggest total sales may not exceed 1.2 million tons, with first-quarter sales projected at around 200,000 tons [5]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Recommendations - Participants agreed on the need to further compress production and sales volumes starting December 2025, especially if prior commitments were not fully utilized [6]. - The meeting highlighted the increasing collaboration among major domestic polysilicon companies, although specific actions regarding the acquisition of excess production capacity were not detailed [8].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 目前工业硅盘面主要受整体商品情绪以及政策端消息震荡运行。需关注后续是否有相关产能退出政策，目前工业 硅估值偏低，若有政策推动，盘面或有上涨空间。 供给自律落地预期增强，价格震荡上行 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-15，工业硅期货价格震荡上行，主力合约2605开于8505元/吨，最后收于8350元/吨，较前一日结算变化（95） 元/吨，变化（1.15）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓200749手，2025-12-14仓单总数为8743手，较前一日变化124 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月12日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计56.1万吨，较前一周增加0.3万吨。其中社会普通仓库13.6万吨， 较上周增加0.5万吨，社会交割仓库42.5万吨(含未注册成仓单及 ...

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (2011 1292号 2025年12月 16日 | | | | 纪元非 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 12月12日 | 12月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 765 | ate | -150 | -16.39% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | aeso | aeso | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 415 | 565 | -150 | -26.55% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1115 | 1265 | -150 | -11.86% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 12月12日 | 12月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | ...

Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated and then retreated, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The New York Federal Reserve reported a significant drop in the general business conditions index by about 23 points to -3.9, indicating a contraction in manufacturing, although the outlook for the next six months improved significantly, with the outlook index rising 16.6 points to its highest level since the beginning of the year, reflecting increased optimism about orders and shipments [3][9] - Domestic economic data for November showed resilient exports but weak domestic demand, with consumption declining rapidly month-on-month and fixed asset and real estate investments under pressure, highlighting the need for policy intervention [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 165,875 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 410,792 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 9,663 tons to 42,226 tons [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.22% to $14,295 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.15% to 112,530 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons [10] - The stainless steel market showed improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets decreasing by 1.55% week-on-week to 1,063,600 tons [10] - The nickel price is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation, with attention on overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [10] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,527 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at 21,865 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [11] - The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [11] - The aluminum price is expected to continue to run at high levels due to supply constraints and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,350 yuan per ton, up 1.15%. Polysilicon prices also increased, with the main contract at 58,030 yuan per ton, up 3.61% [13] - The market is currently experiencing a disconnect between spot and futures prices due to excess supply in crystalline silicon and a shortage of warehouse receipts [13] - The trading environment remains cautious, with a focus on the dynamics of production capacity and market responses to recent production cuts [13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton, with both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 650 yuan per ton [14] - Weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [14] - The market is experiencing a reduction in inventory levels, with social inventory continuing to decline, indicating strong demand despite potential seasonal price weaknesses [14]

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: December 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main polysilicon contract rose and then fell. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,030 yuan/ton, with a 3.61% increase. The trading volume was 314,139 lots, and the open interest was 142,844 lots, with a net increase of 16,408 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 increased by 11,262 lots, and the net short positions of the top 20 increased by 10,425 lots [4] - Spot price: The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] - Future outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but it is not the main line of futures game. The storage platform provides more policy imagination space, and long funds are more sensitive. Unconfirmed news says that the production capacity will be reduced from 3.2 million tons to less than 1.5 million tons. The annual demand is expected to be less than 1.2 million tons in the annual report, and the production capacity will be effectively utilized. However, it is unconfirmed and there are no specific details. The price center is expected to move up significantly, but in the short term, it is still facing the negative feedback of weak and further shrinking downstream to drive the spot price to break through 60,000 yuan. The futures price has risen and then fallen continuously, and it is expected to run cautiously and strongly [4] Group 3: Market News - On December 15, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,640 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Xinjiang Jinnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.'s "Jinnuo" brand and Xinjiang Eastern Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s "Eastern Hope" brand have been added as registered brands for polysilicon futures, effective from the date of the announcement [5] - A polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform named Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. was established on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [5]

平台公司提振，多晶硅偏强震荡 工业硅/多晶硅 20251215 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格偏弱。截至2025年12月12日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8800元/吨，环比上 周下跌100元/吨。期货方面，本周主力合约大幅走低，截至12月12日主力合约收8390元/吨。 供应：新疆地区因上周新增硅炉产量释放，目前硅价低位北方大厂有协商自律意愿，且冬季空气污染多发，石河子重 污染天气预警对硅企生产有所影响，关注开工变化情况；云南地区开工维持低位；四川地区在产硅企季节性减产，在 产硅企稀少。整体而言，工业硅产量环比小幅回落。 需求：多晶硅周度开工基本稳定，周内有部分粉单订单招标；有机硅开工小幅下降，下游持稳为主；铝合金企业开工 率小幅下降，重庆地区因天气污染有减产。出口方面，10月工业硅出口4.51万吨，环比减少36%，同比减少31%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计12月11日工业硅全国社会库存共计56.1万吨，较上周增加0.3万吨。 后市研判：目前工业硅供需偏弱，高库存去 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. With the approaching of winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [2]. - The supply of iron ore has slightly increased, while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to rise. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract [5]. - The market is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. It is recommended to pay attention to whether there are any unexpected situations, as well as the inflection points of sentiment and prices [9]. - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak in the short term, and it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti-involution" related commodities improves. Attention should be paid to new supply-side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to be affected by the "anti-involution" policy and the weak supply and demand situation. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. - The float glass market is in a state of weak supply-demand balance and is expected to continue to show a narrow-range fluctuation trend in the short term [19]. - The price of soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 43,097 tons, a net increase of 2,418 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.607057 million lots, a net increase of 4,982 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 108,128 tons, a net decrease of 886 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.190487 million lots, a net increase of 42,139 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral to stable overall performance. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory also increased this week [2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, which will provide some support for steel demand, but the steel consumption related to real estate will remain weak [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 760.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% (+3.50). The position decreased by 2,568 lots to 465,500 lots. The weighted position was 882,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 70.00 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.43% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The shipments from Australia increased, while those from Brazil decreased. The shipments from non-mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near-term arrivals decreased [5]. - The daily average pig iron output decreased to below 2.3 million tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On December 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.32% at 5,730 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.96% at 5,470 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. The supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced [10]. - The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases, especially the potential impact of sudden changes in the manganese ore market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% (+160). The weighted contract position decreased by 35,281 lots to 459,941 lots. The spot price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 810 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 57,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% (+1,425). The weighted contract position increased by 4,484 lots to 269,692 lots. The average spot prices of N-type granular silicon, dense material, and reclaimed material remained unchanged, with a basis of -4,890 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck in decline, and the demand has weakened. The price is expected to be weak in the short term and may rebound if the sentiment of related commodities improves [14]. - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.03% (-20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 68,030 and 67,811 lots respectively [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.76% (-31). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 54,680 and 61,494 lots respectively [20]. Strategy Views - The supply of glass decreased due to cold repairs, and the market sales were supported to some extent. However, due to high inventory and weak terminal demand, the upward space was limited. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [19]. - The supply of soda ash increased due to the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and new capacity releases. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].