2025 年 11 月 30 日 总量研究 量能决定短期反弹高度 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20251130 本周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28，下同）A 股市场震荡反弹，创业板指领涨主要 宽基指数。量能表现方面，本周主要宽基指数量能逆势收缩，当前量能状态与市 场反弹表现不匹配，后续反弹力度或受量能压制收窄。资金面方面，本周融资增 加额转正，股票型 ETF 资金延续净流出，资金方面仍有分歧。 结合本周市场反弹高度、量能表现以及资金分歧状态，后市反弹力度或减弱，市 场再度进入震荡区间。中长线仍看好"红利+科技"主线，红利或在波动方面占 优。 本周上证综指上涨 1.40%，上证 50 上涨 0.47%，沪深 300 上涨 1.64%，中证 500 上涨 3.14%，中证 1000 上涨 3.77%，创业板指上涨 4.54%，北证 50 指数 上涨 0.75%。 截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日，宽基指数来看，上证指数和上证 50 指数处于估值分 位数"危险"等级，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 和创业板指处于估值分位 数"适中"等级。 中信一级行业分类来看，煤炭、钢铁、建材、轻工制 ...

Core Insights - The overall market rebounded this week, with all major indices closing higher, but none managed to recover the 5-week moving average, indicating that the current range-bound oscillation is not yet fully resolved [1][3][50] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are in their 3rd and 5th weeks of decline from their yearly highs, suggesting that the recent adjustments may not be sufficient [1][3][53] - The Hang Seng Tech Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index have been adjusting for 8 weeks, with a clearer downward space visible [1][3][53] Market Overview - Major indices saw an overall rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 rising by 1.40%, 0.47%, and 1.64% respectively, while growth indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 increased by 3.14%, 3.77%, and 4.50% respectively [11][50] - The ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech 50 showed significant activity, rising by 4.54% and 3.21% respectively, while the North Star 50 saw a slight increase of 0.75% [11][50] Sector Analysis - The market exhibited a trend of "technology strength and defensive weakness," with 25 sectors rising and 5 falling. Notably, the "TMT Four Giants" (Telecommunications, Electronics, Media) saw increases of 8.74%, 6.17%, and 4.16% respectively, while the Computer sector rose by 2.97% [14][51] - Defensive sectors such as Oil & Petrochemicals, Coal, Transportation, and Banking experienced declines of 0.62%, 0.54%, 0.53%, and 0.5% respectively [14][51] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.85 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous week's 2.02 trillion yuan [17] - The main futures contracts (IF, IH, IC) were mostly in backwardation, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [17] Fund Flow - The margin trading balance slightly increased to 2.46 trillion yuan, with a financing buy ratio of 10.4%, up from 9.4% the previous week [26] - The consumer ETF saw a net inflow of 1.7 million yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced a net outflow of 10.3 million yuan [26] Quantitative Analysis - The valuation levels of major market indices are generally in the medium to high range, with the ChiNext Index showing a slightly lower valuation percentile [45] - The current downward energy model indicates that the market's downward energy is at a normal level, without triggering any sell signals [45][48] Future Outlook - Despite the recent rebound, the market remains below the 5-week moving average, and some indices have not yet repaired last week's downward gaps, suggesting that the current range-bound oscillation is not fully resolved [3][53] - The broker index is currently at a critical point, having increased from approximately 70 billion yuan to over 150 billion yuan in the past three months, indicating a potential focus for future directional choices [53][54] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to hold positions during the range-bound oscillation and avoid chasing prices or increasing costs [54] - Specific targets should be set based on the "left foot" of different major indices, with a focus on sectors that are lagging but expanding in market share, such as brokerage firms, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and AI applications [54]

欧盟的如意算盘打得不可谓不精明，但美国却完全不买账。美国商务部长卢特尼克与贸易代表格里尔在会晤中，对欧盟的"效忠"姿态毫无兴趣，而是直接抛 出了核心诉求：要求欧盟重新审视其《数字市场法》和《数字服务法》，在执行过程中充分考虑美国科技企业的利益。卢特尼克甚至许下空头支票，声称只 要欧盟拿出"平衡"的数字监管体系，就能吸引高达1万亿美元的投资。这一幕让欧盟代表团措手不及，欧盟委员会负责贸易的谢夫乔维奇会后坦言，他从未 预料到美国会将数字规则与钢铝关税如此紧密地捆绑在一起。 欧盟的困境在于，数字监管法规是其在国际舞台上赖以生存的重要资本。欧盟技术专员维尔库宁早已明确表示，这些法规将会坚定不移地实施，绝不放松。 近期，欧盟正是依据这些法规对亚马逊和微软启动了反垄断调查，此前还曾对谷歌处以高达29.5亿欧元的天价罚单。如果为了换取美国的关税让步而妥协， 不仅会严重损害欧盟的监管权威，还会破坏其内部市场的公平竞争。这种进退两难的境地，使得欧盟27国的"中国牌"显得格外苍白无力——既想讨好美国， 又不愿放弃自身的核心利益，最终只能将第三方的利益作为赌注。 更令欧洲各国始料未及的是，特朗普的"献礼"来得如此之快。美欧谈判结束 ...

Group 1 - The public fund investment strategy shows robust growth in both scale and number, with active equity funds achieving an average return of 29.69% in 2025, outperforming major indices [2][23][27] - The top three sectors for active equity fund holdings are technology, manufacturing, and cyclical industries, indicating a strong focus on growth-oriented sectors [2][28] - The market outlook for 2026 suggests continued structural opportunities in A-shares, with technology growth remaining a key theme, while Hong Kong stocks are seen as undervalued [2][3] Group 2 - The index fund market has reached a historical high in both scale and number, with total assets amounting to 6.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 32.27% from the previous year [2][37][40] - The ETF segment dominates the index fund market, accounting for 76.10% of total assets, with a notable increase in industry-themed ETFs [2][38][40] - The performance of thematic funds, particularly in technology, has been outstanding, with technology-themed funds achieving an average return of 44.06% in 2025 [2][27][28]

Core Insights - The "Shipping Zhejiang" initiative aims to reduce logistics costs and promote high-quality development of inland shipping in Zhejiang Province, with a focus on the year 2025 as a starting point for construction [1][3] - The province has developed a comprehensive inland waterway network plan, including 1,400 kilometers of secondary waterways, to support project implementation and funding acquisition [1][3] - The initiative emphasizes the importance of inland shipping in enhancing domestic circulation and supporting international trade, highlighting its cost-effectiveness and lower carbon emissions compared to road and rail transport [3][4] Summary by Sections Shipping Development - A high-level meeting was held on November 27 to promote the "Shipping Zhejiang" initiative, focusing on reducing logistics costs and enhancing inland shipping [1] - The plan includes the construction of a waterway network with a layout of "five verticals, eight horizontals, and ten trunks" [1][3] Economic Impact - Inland water transport costs are significantly lower, at only 1/7 of road transport and 1/3 of rail transport, providing substantial benefits for exports from regions like Yiwu and Shaoxing [3] - The carbon emissions from water transport are also much lower, at 1/6 of road transport and 2/3 of rail transport, contributing to environmental goals [3] Investment and Growth - In the first ten months of the year, Zhejiang's water transport investment reached 33.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [4] - The inland ports handled a total cargo throughput of 360 million tons, up 9.3% year-on-year, with container throughput increasing by 14% [4] Trade Dynamics - Zhejiang's trade with ASEAN has surpassed that with the EU, with a total import-export value of 710.61 billion yuan, marking a 16.2% increase [13] - The province's exports of electric vehicles to ASEAN have surged by 195%, indicating a growing market for Zhejiang's manufacturing [13]

完整内容查看视频 这场闹剧的起因，是美国持续加码的钢铝关税压力。美方近期放出风声，计划进一步扩充钢铝关税征收 范围，这直接戳中了欧洲制造业的命门。要知道，钢铁和铝材是欧洲汽车、机械、航空航天等支柱产业 的核心原材料，美国的关税政策已经让欧洲相关企业损失惨重。为了让美方松口，欧盟27国算是彻底放 下了身段。自年初以来，欧盟对美投资已激增1500多亿欧元，美国在欧盟液化天然气进口中的份额也从 45%飙升至60%。即便付出如此代价，欧盟仍觉得不够，索性把"中国牌"当成了最后的筹码，在谈判桌 上反复炒作"共同竞争对手"概念，试图用牺牲中方利益的方式换取自身喘息空间。 2025年11月26日，布鲁塞尔欧盟总部的闭门会谈刚落幕，一则消息就引爆国际舆论。欧盟27国联合向美 国递交备忘录，明确提出愿在经贸领域配合美方行动，甚至不惜联手切断中方相关合作后路，以此换取 美国在钢铝关税问题上的让步。可谁也没想到，这份满是"投名状"意味的通告墨迹未干，特朗普团队就 突然抛出对华示好信号，宣布重启部分中美贸易合作谈判并简化中国商品进口流程，这番反转让欧洲27 国瞬间沦为国际舞台上的尴尬角色。 ...

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Security - The defense industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand and external potential, focusing on information technology, intelligent equipment, and emerging fields like military trade and deep space economy [2] - The machinery sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment and technological empowerment, with a focus on robotics and autonomous driving, alongside a push for core technology breakthroughs [2] - The electric power and new energy sectors are witnessing a new growth cycle, with lithium battery storage demand surging and the photovoltaic market stabilizing [2] - The home appliance industry is focusing on policy subsidies, technological transformation, and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing rapid technological advancements in smart driving and hybrid technologies, with a focus on export opportunities and collaboration with tech companies [2] Group 2: Real Estate and Banking - The real estate market is stabilizing, with key cities expected to see price stabilization driven by household balance sheet recovery and supportive policies [3] - The banking sector is entering a new profit cycle, with stable interest margins supporting long-term profitability, and a focus on undervalued shares and quality city commercial banks [4] Group 3: Securities and Insurance - The securities industry is benefiting from wealth management trends, with a focus on stable earnings and international expansion as a long-term narrative [5] - The insurance sector is characterized by high elasticity, with investment-driven profit growth and a focus on regulatory compliance and risk management [6] Group 4: Construction and Chemicals - The construction industry is expected to stabilize with government debt management and new infrastructure projects, focusing on regional coordination and green development [10] - The chemical sector is entering a recovery phase, with a focus on high-quality enterprises and strategic investments in various chains [10][12] Group 5: Utilities and Environmental Protection - The utilities sector is seeing steady growth in electricity demand, with a focus on high-dividend investments in water and coal power [13] - The environmental protection sector is benefiting from policy adjustments and technological advancements, with a focus on improving profitability in water and waste management [16] Group 6: Capital Markets and Financial Innovation - The capital market is exploring new paths for empowering inclusive finance, focusing on small and micro-enterprise support and rural revitalization [21] - The green certificate market is expected to grow significantly, driven by policy support and increasing demand for renewable energy [22] Group 7: E-commerce and Retail - The retail sector is experiencing structural changes driven by AI, with a focus on rational competition and the globalization of Chinese brands [23] Group 8: Bonds and Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is expected to see continued growth, driven by demand for fixed income and equity market expectations [25] - The quantitative investment sector is gaining traction, with a focus on unique strategies and the development of fixed income products [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth of dividend insurance premiums, which have surpassed 10% year-on-year as of the end of Q3 2025, driven by a combination of lower guaranteed interest rates and the potential for floating returns from capital market investments [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Insurance Premium Growth - As of September 2025, the premium for dividend insurance has exceeded 700 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of over 10% [1]. - The new policy premium growth for dividend insurance has outpaced that of traditional insurance products [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies in Dividend Accounts - By the end of Q3 2025, the market value of investments in dividend accounts reached 57.6 billion, reflecting a 5% increase since the beginning of the year [3][6]. - The investment strategy for dividend accounts is relatively diversified, balancing fixed and floating returns [7][9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Characteristics - Dividend accounts must consider both guaranteed and floating returns, leading to a unique asset allocation strategy that includes high-dividend sectors, although these only account for 30% of the total investments [9][10]. - The insurance companies have increased their investments in sectors such as hardware, transportation, and non-ferrous metals compared to ten years ago [11]. Group 4: Trading Frequency and Revenue Generation - Insurance companies tend to trade more frequently in dividend accounts to capture floating returns, with quarterly investments exceeding 50 billion and new investments over 70 billion [16]. - The trading strategy aims to leverage market opportunities, with companies like Ping An and China Life achieving an estimated annualized return of 20% from their trading activities in Q3 2025 [19][21].

Core Points - The 2025 World Intelligent Manufacturing Conference commenced in Nanjing, where the first batch of leading intelligent factories in China was announced, including 15 enterprises across key industries such as equipment manufacturing, raw materials, electronic information, and consumer goods [1][2] - The selected enterprises launched the "Leading Action Plan" initiative, marking a significant step in the development of intelligent manufacturing in China [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that the leading intelligent factories represent the highest standard of intelligent manufacturing in China, integrating new information technologies, advanced manufacturing technologies, and lean management concepts [5] Summary by Category Intelligent Factory Development - Since the launch of the intelligent factory cultivation initiative, over 7,000 advanced intelligent factories and more than 500 excellent intelligent factories have been established in China [2] - The leading intelligent factories are considered the "crown jewel" of the intelligent factory cultivation system, embodying the leading level of China's manufacturing intelligence [2][5] List of Selected Enterprises - The first batch of leading intelligent factories includes: 1. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. - High-end green silicon steel predictive manufacturing intelligent factory, Shanghai 2. Shanghai Aerospace Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. - High-reliability large-scale aerospace product full-process chain intelligent factory, Shanghai 3. Xuzhou Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. - Global customized agile delivery mobile crane intelligent factory, Jiangsu 4. Nanjing Steel Co., Ltd. - Deeply collaborative personalized customization intelligent factory for special copper, Jiangsu 5. Sinopec Ningbo Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. - Self-executing green petrochemical intelligent factory based on global optimization, Zhejiang 6. Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd. - Large-scale personalized customization of IoT perception products intelligent factory, Zhejiang 7. Weichai Power Co., Ltd. - High-end engine intelligent factory based on digital lean model, Shandong 8. Qingdao Haier Central Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. - Central air conditioning full-process customization service and intelligent integrated factory, Shandong 9. Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company - Integrated intelligent factory for extreme process of rod and cable industry chain, Hubei 10. BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. - 10.5 generation LCD panel intelligent factory driven by extreme efficiency, Chongqing 11. Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. - Excavator sharing manufacturing intelligent factory, Hunan 12. Gree Electric Appliances, Inc. - Full value chain collaborative air conditioning intelligent factory, Guangdong 13. SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd. - Automotive intelligent factory based on process decoupling and production line reconstruction, Guangxi 14. CNOOC (China) Limited - "Deep Sea No. 1" intelligent gas field optimized for all business lines, Hainan 15. Chengdu Aircraft Industrial (Group) Co., Ltd. - Advanced aviation equipment agile intelligent factory, Sichuan [4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline last week, with major indices showing reduced trading volume during the adjustment phase [2] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, banking, media, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well [2] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 51,000, although August's data was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above expectations and previous values [3] - The strong non-farm data had already been factored into the market, leading to a slight increase in the probability of a rate cut in December to around 40% [3] - Future inflation data, such as PCE prices, will be critical for the Federal Reserve's December decision [3] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market showed wide fluctuations last week, with low trading volume and weak technical indicators [4] - The market's downward trend was anticipated, with several short-term negative macro factors, including geopolitical risks and concerns over AI giants' profitability [4] - Defensive dividend and cyclical sectors performed better in the short term, while the overall market is expected to remain volatile [4] - The long-term market structure is unlikely to change significantly, as the economic fundamentals and technology narratives remain stable [5] Long-term Perspective - The ongoing U.S.-China competition has established a clear baseline, with increasing skepticism about the U.S. government's governance and institutional credibility [6] - The RMB has appreciated against the USD amid uncertainties in the U.S. economic outlook and Fed rate cuts, potentially supporting China's equity market [6] - The trend towards long-term capital from public funds and insurance companies is expected to strengthen, with significant excess deposits in the market [6] - A focus on defensive dividend sectors is recommended, with attention to catalysts in certain industries [6]