全行业都在"反内卷"。 这一轮"反内卷"行情中，多晶硅一马当先，自6月25日以来，从阶段低点30400元/吨一路上行至7月11日盘 中最高42265元/吨，在14个交易日大涨39%，单周涨幅达到16.39%。此外，焦煤等资源品价格也在连续上 涨，单周涨幅超8%。 业内人士指出，国内供给侧最敏感的是黑色板块和新能源金属。而随着近期更多资源行业关于行业自律和供给 侧改革加码的密集推动，市场再度憧憬供给侧改革加快推进，并期待资源行业实现困境反转。 "反内卷"在多个行业落地 随着近日"反内卷"进一步明确，各行业纷纷响应，多晶硅、焦煤、钢铁等资源品价格出现持续上涨。"反内 卷"政策旨在通过规范市场竞争、淘汰落后产能，引导行业从"量的扩张"转向 "质的提升"。 7月11日，多晶硅期货突破4.1万元大关，主力合约盘中最高报42265元/吨，触及近三个月新高，成交量在前 一日101.5万手基础上稍有回落，仍然达到87.8万手的历史次高水平，单周上涨幅度达到16.39%。 为避免光伏玻璃企业之间竞争加剧使得市场恶性循环，多数玻璃企业计划7月开始减产改善供应端，行业倡议 减产规模达到30%。市场预计在现阶段短期更多依靠市场化手段 ...

全行业都在"反内卷" 资源品出现价格持续上涨预期 "从季节性来看，随着资源品下半年迎来需求旺季，价格有持续上行的预期。"兴业证券分析师张启尧认为，进 入7月，受高温天气影响，国内进入用电高峰，煤炭、石油石化等资源品也随之迎来需求高峰期；而供给端的 开工率也会因为高温天气甚至可能会出现限电停产而受到影响，往往会呈现需求旺盛但供给偏紧的局面。 这一轮"反内卷"行情中，多晶硅一马当先，自6月25日以来，从阶段低点30400元/吨一路上行至7月11日盘中最 高42265元/吨，在14个交易日大涨39%，单周涨幅达到16.39%。此外，焦煤等资源品价格也在连续上涨，单周 涨幅超8%。 业内人士指出，国内供给侧最敏感的是黑色板块和新能源金属。而随着近期更多资源行业关于行业自律和供给 侧改革加码的密集推动，市场再度憧憬供给侧改革加快推进，并期待资源行业实现困境反转。 "反内卷"在多个行业落地 随着近日"反内卷"进一步明确，各行业纷纷响应，多晶硅、焦煤、钢铁等资源品价格出现持续上涨。"反内 卷"政策旨在通过规范市场竞争、淘汰落后产能，引导行业从"量的扩张"转向 "质的提升"。 7月11日，多晶硅期货突破4.1万元大关，主力合 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides operation ratings for various commodities: 3-star ratings (★★★) for Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Silicomanganese, and Ferrosilicon; no clear indication for Coking Coal and Manganese Silicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of short - term oscillation. The market is concerned about terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies. The steel market is cautious due to uncertainties in policies and demand. The iron ore market's upward movement depends on more policy support. The coke and coking coal markets face upward pressure due to inventory. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets follow the rebar trend with limited fundamental improvement [2][3][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillated today. Rebar's apparent demand increased, production rose, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production remained high, and inventory accumulated. Iron - water production decreased but stayed high. From the downstream perspective, infrastructure recovery lacks sustainability, real - estate sales are low, and manufacturing is resilient. The market is cautious due to policy uncertainties and "anti - involution" expectations, and it will oscillate in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated today. Global shipments decreased after the end - of - quarter rush, while domestic arrivals rebounded, and port inventory increased. Steel apparent demand was stable at a low level, and steel mills' profitability was okay. There is still some production - cut pressure. The market sentiment improved, but further price increases need more policies. Iron ore's short - term trend will follow steel products [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but coking profits are thin, and daily production declined. Inventory decreased, and both traders' and steel mills' purchasing improved. The carbon supply is abundant, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact. The coke futures price has a premium, and there is upward pressure due to inventory [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated upward during the day. Coking coal mine production increased, the spot auction market improved, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. The carbon supply is abundant, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact. The coking coal futures price has a premium, and there is upward pressure due to inventory [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price oscillated upward during the day. Inventory decreased due to previous production cuts, but weekly production increased, and on - balance - sheet inventory rose. Manganese ore inventory is increasing in the long - term, and the current inventory is low, with mines having a stronger willingness to hold prices. The price of Comilog's oxidized ore increased slightly. The silicomanganese market follows the rebar trend, and there is significant pressure at the 6750 level [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated during the day. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was around 30,000 tons, with limited marginal impact. Magnesium production increased, and secondary demand was stable at a high level. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, market trading was average, on - balance - sheet inventory decreased, but production - end inventory increased. Some producers may use a trading model to help with inventory reduction. The ferrosilicon market follows the rebar trend, and there is limited driving force for continuous price rebound [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the black commodities market, particularly coking coal and iron ore, with discussions on macroeconomic policies and their impacts on supply and demand dynamics in 2025 compared to 2015 [1][2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - The black commodities market is experiencing a rebound driven by valuation and increased positions, with coking coal leading the charge after a prolonged bear market [2][5]. - The domestic "anti-involution" policy aims to stabilize prices through administrative production cuts in response to external demand pressures, which has led to a reduction in short positions and subsequent price increases [1][5]. - The iron ore market is currently neutral, lacking significant upward drivers, with limited price support from supply-demand fundamentals [6][29]. Coking Coal Insights - Coking coal has seen a price rebound, but there is uncertainty regarding whether it has reached its bottom, with discussions on long-term pricing strategies for the third and fourth quarters [3][7][17]. - The cost structure indicates that the industry faces losses if prices fall below approximately 850 RMB, suggesting a critical price point for sustainability [17]. Macroeconomic Influences - U.S. policies are expected to significantly impact the industrial commodities market, with a shift from tightening measures in the first half of 2025 to potential economic stimulus in the latter half [4][10]. - The "Great Beautiful Act" has implications for U.S. fiscal policy, increasing the deficit and potentially affecting risk asset valuations due to rising debt issuance [11][12]. Supply Chain and Pricing Strategies - The supply of coking coal and coke is under scrutiny, with recent price increases attributed to marginal improvements in supply-demand dynamics and environmental regulations affecting production [19][20]. - The market is currently experiencing a speculative atmosphere, with concerns about the sustainability of recent price increases as supply begins to recover [19][23]. Future Outlook - The outlook for iron ore and related commodities suggests a potential rebound after a period of weakness, with expectations of reduced production in September due to national events, followed by a likely recovery in demand [32]. - The overall sentiment in the black commodities market remains cautious, with a focus on monitoring macroeconomic indicators and potential shifts in government policy that could influence market dynamics [21][28]. Additional Important Content - The distinction between "anti-involution" and supply-side reforms highlights the reliance on industry self-regulation rather than top-down administrative measures, complicating the predictability of production cuts [8]. - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by manageable risks, low inventory levels, and low valuations, which support upward price movements in the commodities market [9]. - The sentiment-driven nature of the market suggests that any cooling of investor enthusiasm could lead to a rapid decline in prices, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a cautious investment approach [26][28].

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed Chair Powell indicated that stable economic activity allows the Fed to study the impact of tariff hikes on prices and economic growth before resuming rate cuts. If not for concerns about tariffs, the Fed might have continued to gradually cut rates this year. A well - known journalist believes that if the final tariff increase is lower than Trump's April announcement, the Fed's rate - cut strategy may change [8] - For caustic soda, the spot price decline is not over, but the impact of liquid chlorine should be noted. Although the supply pressure is large, due to the rapid decline in liquid chlorine prices, the cost of caustic soda has increased, and the far - month valuation may be repaired, but the continuous rebound space may be limited [10][12] - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the price - cut inflection point is postponed. The 08 contract will fluctuate and consolidate, and it is advisable to short the 10 contract at high prices [13][19] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising, and silver continues to rise. The prices of gold and silver in various markets showed different changes in the previous trading day, including price increases, changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [20][21] - Trend intensity: Gold trend intensity is - 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [24] Copper - Copper: The strong spot price supports the price. The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of copper futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day. Macro and industry news include the US manufacturing PMI situation, trade agreement impacts, and China's copper import data [26] - Trend intensity: Copper trend intensity is 1 [28] Zinc - Zinc: The fundamentals are under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of zinc in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day. There is news about the expansion project of a lead - zinc mine [29][30] - Trend intensity: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [30] Lead - Lead: There is an expectation of a peak season, which supports the price. The relevant data of lead in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the expansion project of a lead - zinc mine [32][33] - Trend intensity: Lead trend intensity is 1 [33] Tin - Tin: Driven by the macro - environment, the price goes up. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventories of tin in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are some macro and industry news [35][36] - Trend intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [37] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity. Stainless steel: The inventory has slightly decreased, and the steel price is repaired but with limited elasticity. The relevant data of nickel and stainless steel in the industrial chain changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about nickel - related production and shutdown in Indonesia [39][40] - Trend intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [42] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate: The spot trading is light, and it runs weakly with fluctuations. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of lithium carbonate in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about lithium - related agreements [43][45] - Trend intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [45] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The upstream supply disturbances increase, and the market sentiment should be noted. Polysilicon: The market news continues to cause disturbances, and the upward space should be noted. The relevant data of industrial silicon and polysilicon in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the photovoltaic glass industry [46][48] - Trend intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 1, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [48] Iron Ore - Iron ore: The expectations fluctuate, and it fluctuates widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of iron ore in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about industrial enterprise profits [49] - Trend intensity: Iron ore trend intensity is 0 [49] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both fluctuate widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of rebar and hot - rolled coil in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about economic indicators and steel production and inventory [51][52][53] - Trend intensity: Rebar trend intensity is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend intensity is 0 [54] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Affected by the sector sentiment, they fluctuate weakly. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices [55][56] - Trend intensity: Ferrosilicon trend intensity is 0, and silicomanganese trend intensity is 0 [57] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal: Affected by the downstream environmental - protection production cuts, they fluctuate weakly. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of coke and coking coal in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about coal prices and positions [60][62] - Trend intensity: Coke trend intensity is 0, and coking coal trend intensity is 0 [62] Steam Coal - Steam coal: The daily consumption recovers, and it stabilizes with fluctuations. The trading situation of steam coal in the previous trading day is introduced, and there are news about coal prices and positions [64][66] - Trend intensity: Steam coal trend intensity is 0 [67] Logs - Logs: The main contract switches, and it fluctuates widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of logs in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the US dollar index [68][70] - Trend intensity: Log trend intensity is - 1 [70] Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - Paraxylene: Go long on the positive spread at low prices. PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA. MEG: Stop the profit of going long on PTA and short on MEG. The prices, trading volumes, spreads, and other data of paraxylene, PTA, and MEG in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about the polyester market [71][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].