Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - L2601 opened higher, oscillated downward during the session, and closed down at 6,968 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.29%), with a trading volume of 215,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 3,569 lots to 508,700 lots [5] - PP2601 closed at 6,651 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (-0.21%), with an open interest increase of 677 lots to 613,335 lots [5] - On October 30, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 695,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day; the inventory in the same period last year was 720,000 tons [7] - PE market prices were weakly sorted. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,910 - 7,150 yuan/ton, 7,030 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and 7,250 - 7,500 yuan/ton respectively [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 5,930 - 5,950 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day [7] - The PP market was mainly sorted, with individual prices slightly loosening. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6,450 - 6,540 yuan/ton, 6,530 - 6,620 yuan/ton, and 6,470 - 6,630 yuan/ton respectively [7] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The futures opened higher and oscillated, but the market atmosphere was limitedly boosted. Traders quoted prices according to the market, and some quoted prices weakened. Downstream buyers mainly replenished stocks at low prices [5] - The expected output of the new Guangxi Petrochemical plant in November is expected to increase, and the impact of maintenance from November to December will decrease. Although the downstream operating rate remains high, the concentrated demand will decrease later, and the demand support will weaken [5] - Affected by the new round of US sanctions, the market sentiment is cautious, the oil price is under pressure, and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefin itself will cause the price to oscillate at a low level [5]

Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of $769 million for the first nine months of 2025, with a 52% increase in net profit for the third quarter [1] - Revenue reached $4.17 billion, showing a year-on-year decline, but profit margins hit a record high [1] - The CEO stated that despite a weak market, the company maintained its leading position in the global polyolefins industry through cost control and efficient operations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes target market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Target Futures Market Overview - The document provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2512) is 465, with a price increase of 6 and a price change percentage of 1.28% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are presented. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option target market and the turning point of the target market. For example, the open interest PCR of crude oil options is 0.77, with a change of - 0.04 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical options are given, which are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil options is 500 and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various energy - chemical options is provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, changes in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 28.075, and the weighted implied volatility is 29.38 with a change of - 0.93 [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that US refinery demand is picking up, shale oil production reduction is small, OPEC exports are increasing but mostly absorbed by China, and European refined product inventories are in a low - level destocking state. The market has shown a trend of decline, followed by consolidation, and then a rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: The US market has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and extreme winter weather and Sino - US trade trends may affect prices. The market has experienced a decline, followed by a rebound and then a fall. Option strategies are similar to those of crude oil, including constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol Options - **Methanol**: Port and enterprise inventories are at certain levels, and the market shows a weak upward - pressured trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load and inventory situation is complex, and the market is in a weak trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy for direction and a short - volatility strategy for volatility, along with a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE, and the market is in a weak trend. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The import market price is rising, but downstream demand is weak. The market is in a weak consolidation state. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester Options - **PTA**: The load is at a certain level, and the market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.6 Alkali Options - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market has issues such as lack of restocking and weakening cost support, and the market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy for direction and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory situation is given, and the market is in a low - level weak consolidation state. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: The enterprise inventory is at a high level, and the market is in a low - level weak consolidation state. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

Report Overview - The report consists of four parts: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report, Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report, and Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, covering price, inventory, and开工率 data of multiple chemical products, along with corresponding investment strategies [2][4][9][10] Polyolefin Industry Price Changes - L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all increased on October 29, with L2601 up 0.34%, L2509 up 0.06%, PP2601 up 0.42%, and PP2509 up 0.37% [2] - Some spot prices remained stable, while华北LDPE膜料现货 rose 0.15% [2] Inventory and开工率 - PE企业 inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, and社会库存 decreased slightly by 0.04% to 54.5 tons [2] - PP企业 inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.5 tons, and贸易商库存 decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [2] - PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, while下游加权开工率 increased by 1.85% to 45.8% [2] - PP装置开工率 decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, while粉料开工率 increased by 7.1% to 41.4%, and下游加权开工率 increased by 1.0% to 52.4% [2] Core View - PP supply recovery slowed due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand improved, and both inventories decreased. Consider long - term low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract and track sanctions' impact on refinery loads [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and WTI原油 increased slightly on October 29, while纯苯中石化华东挂牌价 remained unchanged [4] -苯乙烯华东现货 and related futures prices increased, with苯乙烯华东现货 up 0.6% [5] Inventory and开工率 -纯苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [7] -亚洲纯苯开工率 remained unchanged at 79.2%, while国内纯苯开工率 decreased by 3.6% to 72.7% [8] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and CFR日本石脑油 increased slightly on October 29 [9] - Most下游聚酯 product prices remained stable, with聚酯切片 price up 0.1% [9] Inventory and开工率 - MEG港口库存 decreased by 9.7% to 52.3 tons, and到港预期 increased significantly by 273.6% to 19.8 tons [9] -亚洲PX开工率 increased by 0.5% to 78.5%, and中国PX开工率 increased by 1.0% to 85.9% [9] Core View - PX supply contracted, and demand support strengthened. However, PX rebound space is limited. PTA,乙二醇,短纤, and瓶片 also have corresponding supply - demand situations and investment strategies [9] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price Changes -山东32%液碱折百价 and山东50%液碱折百价 remained unchanged on October 29, while华东电石法PVC市场价 increased by 0.4% [10] Inventory and开工率 -烧碱行业开工率 increased slightly by 0.1% to 85.6%, and烧碱山东样本开工率 increased by 3.2% to 86.6% [13] - PVC总开工率 decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [13] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the market [3]. - For methanol, the slow import unloading process has slowed port inventory accumulation. The market's main contradiction lies in the unexpected slow unloading due to previous sanctions and recent weather. Although there are potential bullish factors, the overall market structure is weaker than in previous years. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance is over, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed down. The spot price has limited downward space, and there are still some positive factors to be released. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [7]. - For rubber, the rubber price is strong. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor, and there is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and the price may stop falling periodically [20]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced at a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [23]. - For polypropylene, the cost - side supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The inventory is difficult to continuously reduce, and it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil [29]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - side maintenance has decreased, and there is a slight inventory accumulation. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The PXN is under pressure [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 437.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline, at 2647.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline, at 3072.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, the short - term oil price is not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 16 yuan to 2257 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 47. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 2 to - 64 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The slow import unloading process has slowed port inventory accumulation. The market's main contradiction is the unexpected slow unloading. There are potential bullish factors, but the overall market structure is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong and Henan decreased by 10, Hubei remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 9 yuan to 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 55. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 73 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side device maintenance is over, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed down. The spot price has limited downward space, and there are still some positive factors to be released. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock index and industrial products rose, and the rubber price also increased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber believes in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand expectations; the short - side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.29%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.49%. The semi - steel tire export orders slowed down. As of October 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1050000 tons, a 2.8% decrease [9][10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is strong. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 59 yuan to 4775 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4620 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 155 (- 39) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 286 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decrease; the demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.9%, a 1.3% increase. The factory inventory was 334000 tons (- 27000), and the social inventory was 1035000 tons (+1000) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor, and there is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5410 yuan/ton, a 116 - yuan decline; the closing price of the active contract was 5526 yuan/ton, a 116 - yuan decline. The spot price of styrene was 6450 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decline; the closing price of the active contract was 6513 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a 2.63% decrease; the Jiangsu port inventory was 202500 tons, an increase of 60000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 42.77%, a 0.16% decrease [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and the price may stop falling periodically [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7009 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan increase; the spot price was 7010 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan decline. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 514600 tons, a decrease of 14900 tons; the trader inventory was 50000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a 0.83% increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced at a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6685 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 638500 tons, a decrease of 40200 tons; the trader inventory was 220000 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons; the port inventory was 66800 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 34 yuan to 6652 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 dollars to 818 dollars. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. In mid - and early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 256000 tons, a 19000 - ton increase year - on - year [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The inventory is difficult to continuously reduce, and it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 22 yuan to 4636 yuan. The East China spot price was unchanged at 4535 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. On October 24, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2201000 tons, an increase of 25000 tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - side maintenance has decreased, and there is a slight inventory accumulation. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The PXN is under pressure [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 31 yuan to 4100 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan to 4152 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The import arrival forecast was 198000 tons, and the East China departure on October 28 was 850 tons. The port inventory was 523000 tons, a decrease of 56000 tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - Select some varieties from each sector to provide options strategies and recommendations [9]. - Write options strategy reports for each options variety according to the analysis of the underlying market, research on options factors, and options strategy recommendations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The futures prices of most energy and chemical products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of crude oil SC2512 dropped by 8 to 458, a decline of 1.78%; the price of synthetic rubber BR2512 dropped by 285 to 10,585, a decline of 2.62%. Only the price of rubber RU2601 increased by 10 to 15,395, an increase of 0.06% [4]. 3.2 Options Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The PCR indicators of different options varieties showed different trends. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil increased by 0.14 to 0.86, and the position PCR decreased by 0.01 to 0.81; the volume PCR of methanol increased by 0.26 to 0.84, and the position PCR decreased by 0.02 to 0.51 [5]. 3.3 Options Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Different options varieties have different pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 590, and the support level is 440; the pressure level of methanol is 2300, and the support level is 2200 [6]. 3.4 Options Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options varieties also showed different trends. For example, the weighted implied volatility of crude oil decreased by 1.69 to 30.31; the weighted implied volatility of methanol increased by 1.00 to 19.46 [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - Related Options: Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. During the recent oil price decline, shale oil production only decreased by 10,000 barrels per day. OPEC exports have increased, but most of them are absorbed by China, so there is no obvious visible inventory in the market. In Europe, the overall refined oil inventory is in a low - level destocking state, the crude oil inventory has increased, but the refinery demand is about to enter the peak season, and the diesel crack spread remains high [8]. - Market analysis: Since July, the crude oil market has gradually weakened and then consolidated in a range. In August, it first rose and then fell, showing a short - term weak shock. In September, it continued to be weak and bearish and then gradually rebounded. In October, it fell sharply and then stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of crude oil options has decreased to near the average. The position PCR of options is reported at around 0.80, indicating that the crude oil market has been weak recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 590, and the support level is 440 [8]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put options combination strategy to obtain options time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [8]. 3.5.2 Energy - Related Options: Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: The US is under great pressure due to high production and high inventory. Extreme weather in winter and the trend of Sino - US trade will affect its price and trade flow. At present, the total export volume from the Middle East is relatively stable, and OPEC+ policies and actual production increases will affect future exports [10]. - Market analysis: In July, LPG reached a high and then fell back, continuously declining and then weakly consolidating. Since August, it has accelerated its decline, moved downward bearishly, then rebounded and rose but was blocked and fell back. In September, it first fell and then rose, gradually warming up. Overall, it shows an oversold rebound market with pressure above [10]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly decreased and returned to near the lower - than - average level. The position PCR of LPG options is reported at around 0.80, indicating that the LPG market has been weak recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 4550, and the support level is 4000 [10]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put options combination strategy to obtain options time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.3 Alcohol - Related Options: Methanol - Fundamental analysis: The port inventory is 1.5122 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,800 tons. The unloading is lower than expected, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The enterprise inventory is 360,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, and it is at a low level compared with the same period last year [10]. - Market analysis: In July, methanol reached a high and then fell back, continuously declining and then fluctuating greatly. Since August, it has gradually weakened and moved downward bearishly. In September, it consolidated at a low level and then rebounded. Since October, it has continued to be weak and bearish. Overall, it shows a weak market trend with pressure above [10]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level. The position PCR of methanol options is reported below 0.80, indicating that the methanol market has been in a weak and oscillating state recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 2300, and the support level is 2200 [10]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put options combination strategy to obtain options time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option. When the market rebounds to a high strike price, close the position in combination with spot sales [10]. 3.5.4 Alcohol - Related Options: Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: Last week, the EG load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. Among them, the load of synthetic gas production was 82.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the load of ethylene production was 68.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.3%. The port inventory is 579,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,000 tons; the inventory days of downstream factories are 13.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 days. In the short term, the arrival volume last week was moderately low, the departure volume increased, and the port inventory is expected to slightly decrease. With the high domestic load and the increase in overseas arrivals, ethylene glycol has entered the inventory accumulation cycle [11]. - Market analysis: In July, ethylene glycol weakly consolidated and oscillated at a low level, gradually rose, and then fell rapidly. In August, it continued to weakly consolidate slightly. Since September, it has continued to be weak and bearish. Overall, it shows a weak market trend with pressure above [11]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates around the lower - than - average level. The position PCR of options is reported at around 0.70, indicating that the short - selling force of ethylene glycol has been relatively strong recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 4500, and the support level is 4050 [11]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy to obtain time value returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin - Related Options: Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: The inventory of PE production enterprises is 514,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.81%, and an increase of 2.02% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PE traders is 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%. The inventory of PP production enterprises is 638,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.92%, and an increase of 12.69% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PP traders is 220,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.80%; the PP port inventory is 66,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62%. The overall inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [11]. - Market analysis: Since July, the decline of polypropylene has narrowed, gradually stabilized, slightly oscillated and rebounded, and then rapidly declined. In August, it maintained a weak and slight fluctuation. In September, it continued to be weak and bearish. In October, it accelerated its decline and then oscillated at a low level. Overall, it shows a weak market trend with bearish pressure above [11]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has decreased to near the average level. The position PCR of options is reported at around 0.70, indicating that the polypropylene market has weakened recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 6900, and the support level is 6300 [11]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: None. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.6 Rubber - Related Options: Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The offer price of the imported rubber market has risen, traders have rotated stocks, and the factory's inventory - building sentiment has been weak. The futures market has maintained a relatively strong oscillating pattern, and the spot price of domestic natural rubber has followed the market up. The downstream procurement willingness has been relatively weak, mainly replenishing goods with appropriate rigid demand. The overall trading atmosphere in the market has been average, and the actual transaction performance has been light [12]. - Market analysis: Since July, the rubber market has continued to rise in the short term, reached a high, and then fell back. In August, it gradually warmed up and rose and then consolidated and oscillated in a range. Since September, it has maintained a weak and bearish trend. In October, it continued to be weak and consolidated at a low level. Overall, it shows a weak consolidation market trend with support below and pressure above [12]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of rubber options has risen rapidly and then decreased to near the lower - than - average level. The position PCR of rubber options is reported below 0.60. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying has dropped significantly to 17,000, and the support level is 14,000 [12]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put options combination strategy to obtain options time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.5.7 Polyester - Related Options: PTA - Fundamental analysis: The PTA load is 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. In terms of equipment, the load of Yisheng Ningbo has slightly decreased, and the load of individual equipment has recovered. The maintenance volume of PTA in October has slightly decreased, and the overall load is low under low processing fees [12]. - Market analysis: In July, the PTA market continued to be weak and then rebounded and rose. In August, it fell back, slightly consolidated, and then rapidly rebounded, rose, and was blocked and fell back. In September, it continued to be weak and bearish. Overall, it shows a weak and bearish market trend with pressure above [12]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a relatively high level above the average. The position PCR of PTA options is reported at around 0.70, indicating that the PTA market has been in an oscillating state recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 4600, and the support level is 4300 [12]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put options combination strategy to obtain options time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.5.8 Alkali - Related Options: Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: In the spot market, non - aluminum industries have no obvious inventory - building behavior, which is lower than expected, or they are waiting for the spot price to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. Secondly, as the maintenance is restored, the spot support may weaken. The price of liquid chlorine has risen, weakening the cost support [13]. - Market analysis: In July, caustic soda first rose and then fell. In August, it quickly fell back, then gradually rebounded, moved upward bullishly in the short term, and then oscillated at a high level. Since September, it has continuously reported negative lines and gradually weakened. In October, it accelerated its decline. Overall, it shows a weak and bearish market trend with pressure above recently [13]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The position PCR of caustic soda options is reported below 0.80, indicating that the caustic soda market has been in a weak and oscillating state recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 2600, and the support level is 2240 [13]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: None. Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.9 Alkali - Related Options: Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: As of October 25, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash is 1.7021 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons; the available inventory days are 14.11 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash is 93.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62 yuan/ton; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash is 76.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.78 yuan/ton [13]. - Market analysis: Since August, the soda ash market has continued to be weak and consolidated. In September, it fluctuated slightly at a low level and was weak. In October, it continued to be weak. Recently, it shows a low - level weak oscillating market trend with support below [13]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high level in history. The position PCR of soda ash options is reported below 0.60, indicating that the bearish pressure is relatively strong. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 1300, and the support level is 1100 [13]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy to obtain volatility returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.10 Other Energy - Chemical Options: Urea - Fundamental analysis: The enterprise inventory is 1.6302 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, and it is at a high level compared with the same period last year. The port inventory is 210,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 tons, and the goods are accelerating to leave the port [14]. - Market analysis: In July, the urea market oscillated widely in a range under the bearish pressure line and then rose rapidly. In August, it continued to fluctuate widely in a range. In September, it gradually weakened. In October, it oscillated weakly at a low level. Overall, it shows a low - level oscillating and weak market trend [14]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average level

Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Polyolefin (LLDPE & PP) - Supply: PP supply recovery is slowing due to unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance peaks. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of expanded international sanctions on domestic refinery loads [2]. - Demand: The demand side is warming up, with downstream开工 rising, especially in the agricultural film sector. Both LLDPE and PP inventories are decreasing [2]. - Strategy: The 01 contract still faces inventory pressure, while the 05 contract has less new capacity. Long - term low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract can be considered, and the impact of sanctions on refinery loads should be continuously monitored [2]. Methanol - Market Situation: The port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventories and weak demand. The inland market has deeper price drops as some external procurement stops. Overseas, multiple plants have shut down, and many MTO plants have reduced their loads due to profit issues [5]. - Market Logic: The market is trading on the "weak reality vs. strong expectation" logic, with the core contradiction being the game between high port inventories and potential supply reduction (overseas plant shutdowns/geopolitical factors) [5]. - Strategy: In the short - term, prices may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the port destocking rhythm and the implementation of overseas gas restrictions [5]. Chlor - alkali (PVC & Caustic Soda) - Price and Spread: There are various price changes in PVC and caustic soda products, including futures and spot prices, as well as spreads between different contracts [8]. - Supply and Demand: Caustic soda industry开工 is stable, while PVC开工 has decreased slightly. Downstream开工 of both products has some positive changes, and PVC inventories are increasing [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Price and Spread: Prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene have declined, while some spreads have changed. Styrene prices have also decreased, and its cash flow has improved to some extent [9][10]. - Inventory and开工: Both pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports have decreased, and there are changes in the开工 rates of related industries [12][13]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is expected to contract due to unplanned maintenance or load reduction of some PX plants. Demand is supported by new PTA plants and improved terminal orders. However, the short - term rebound space of PX is limited due to weak oil price support [14]. - PTA: The spot basis is weak due to increased supply from load recovery and new capacity. The futures market is relatively firm but limited by the lack of substantial policies and weak cost - side expectations [14]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Upward momentum is weakened by factors such as port conditions, plant restarts, and weak cost. The supply structure in the far - month is still weak [14]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand has improved, leading to inventory reduction. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream chasing willingness and compressed processing fees [14]. - Polyester Bottle - chip: Demand is weak in the off - season, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period. The processing fee is expected to decline [14]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin (LLDPE & PP) - Price and Spread: On October 28, L2601 closed at 7051, down 0.56% from the previous day; PP2601 closed at 6657, down 0.63%. The spread between L2509 - 2601 increased by 22.11%, and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 12.68% [2]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.81% to 51.5, and social inventory decreased slightly by 0.04% to 54.5 million tons. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.92% to 63.9 million tons, and trader inventory decreased by 15.74% to 22.0 million tons [2]. -开工: PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, and downstream加权开工率 increased by 1.85% to 45.8%. PP装置开工率 decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, while the powder开工率 increased by 7.1% to 41.4%, and downstream加权开工率 increased by 1.0% to 52.4 [2]. Methanol - Price and Spread: On October 28, MA2601 closed at 2241, down 1.19% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2303, down 0.95%. The MA15 spread decreased by 8.77%, and the Taicang basis decreased by 10.00% [3]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.13% to 36.036, port inventory increased by 1.40% to 151.2 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.15% to 187.3 [4]. -开工: Upstream domestic enterprise开工 decreased by 0.91% to 75.85, and overseas enterprise开工 decreased by 2.37% to 73.3. Downstream外采MTO装置开工 decreased by 9.48% to 78.1, while some traditional downstream开工 such as formaldehyde and acetic acid increased slightly [5]. Chlor - alkali (PVC & Caustic Soda) - Price and Spread: On October 28, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged at 2500. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.4% to 4620. There are also various changes in futures prices and spreads [8]. - Supply and Demand: Caustic soda industry开工 increased slightly by 0.1% to 85.6, and PVC总开工 decreased by 1.9% to 73.7. Downstream开工 of caustic soda and PVC products has some positive changes, and PVC inventories increased by 14.4% to 63.5 million tons [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices: On October 28, Brent crude oil (December) was at $64.40, down 2.3%; WTI crude oil (December) was at $60.15, down 2.2%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $569, down 2.1%. CFR China pure benzene was at $676, down 2.2% [9]. - Styrene - related Prices: Styrene East China spot price was at 6440, down 1.1%. EB futures 2512 was at 6466, down 1.0%. EB cash flow (non - integrated) improved slightly by 0.8% [10]. - Inventory: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 million tons, and styrene inventory decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 million tons [12]. -开工: Asian pure benzene开工 remained unchanged at 79.2%, while domestic pure benzene开工 decreased by 3.6% to 72.7%. Some downstream开工 such as phenol remained unchanged, and others had slight changes [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: On October 28, Brent crude oil (December) was at $64.40, down 1.9%; WTI crude oil (December) was at $60.15, down 1.9%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $569, down 1.6%. CFR China MX was at $684, down 1.6% [14]. - PX - related Prices: CFR China PX was at $814, down 1.2%. PX spot price (in RMB) was at 6848, down 2.4%. PX basis (01) decreased by 84.0% [14]. - Product Prices and Cash Flows: POY150/48 price increased by 0.2% to 6415, and its cash flow decreased by 5.9%. FDY150/96 price increased by 0.5% to 7100, and its cash flow increased by 4.4% [14]. -开工: Asian PX开工 increased by 0.5% to 78.5%, and Chinese PX开工 increased by 1.0% to 85.9%. PTA开工 increased by 2.1% to 78.8%, and MEG综合开工 decreased by 3.9% to 73.3% [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - **Eggs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. - For methanol, the slow import unloading process has slowed down port inventory accumulation. The market's expectation of reduced imports has increased, and the disk price has stabilized. However, the market structure is weaker than in previous years, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance has returned, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The market is waiting for positive news, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. - For rubber, the rubber price is oscillating. It is recommended to close short - term long positions and wait and see. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. The cost - side supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The PX inventory is difficult to continuously decline. The valuation is at a neutral level and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [25]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - side maintenance volume has decreased, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The valuation is affected by PTA maintenance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of potential production - cut signals [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the import volume is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities [28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 56.00 yuan/ton, a 2.13% increase, to 2691.00 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 71.00 yuan/ton, a 2.32% increase, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.02 million barrels to 13.61 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 5.11 million barrels to 14.77 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.04 million barrels to 23.03 million barrels, and the total refined oil inventory increased by 3.06 million barrels to 51.41 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, the price in Inner Mongolia remained stable, the price in southern Shandong decreased by 35 yuan, the 01 contract on the disk decreased by 27 yuan to 2241 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 31. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5 to - 62 [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The slow import unloading process has slowed down port inventory accumulation. The domestic production has declined, and the traditional demand has weakened. The market's expectation of reduced imports has increased, and the disk price has stabilized. However, the market structure is weaker than in previous years, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the disk decreased by 5 yuan to 1635 yuan, and the basis was - 55. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 73 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side device maintenance has returned, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The market is waiting for positive news, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price was oscillating. The long - position holders of natural rubber RU believed that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might limit rubber production increase, and there were positive expectations for demand. The short - position holders believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, demand was in a seasonal off - peak, and the supply increase might be less than expected. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.29%, up 0.21 percentage points from the previous week and 2.81 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.49%, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire export orders slowed down. As of October 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1050000 tons, a decrease of 30000 tons, or 2.8%. The inventory in Qingdao was 427500 (- 19100) tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is oscillating. It is recommended to close short - term long positions and wait and see. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 30 yuan to 4716 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 116 (+ 30) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 288 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 765 (0) US dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 74.4% (a decrease of 0.3%) and the ethylene method at 81.6% (an increase of 0.4%). The overall downstream operating rate was 49.9%, an increase of 1.3%. The in - factory inventory was 334000 tons (- 27000), and the social inventory was 1035000 tons (+ 1000) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 5495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of pure benzene was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of styrene was 6466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The basis was - 16 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 109.37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 539.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 202500 tons, an increase of 60000 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 42.77%, a decrease of 0.16%. The operating rate of PS remained unchanged at 53.80%, the operating rate of EPS decreased by 0.54% to 61.98%, and the operating rate of ABS decreased by 0.30% to 72.80% [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a decrease of 0.56%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 514600 tons, a decrease of 14900 tons, and the inventory of traders was 50000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45.75%, an increase of 0.83%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, an increase of 0.16%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 638500 tons, a decrease of 40200 tons, the inventory of traders was 220000 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons, and the port inventory was 66800 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.37%, an increase of 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 328 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The cost - side supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 6618 yuan, the PX CFR price decreased by 7 US dollars to 814 US dollars. The basis was 30 yuan (- 51), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 16 yuan (+ 18). The PX load in China was 85.9%, an increase of 1%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, an increase of 0.5%. A 540000 - ton plant of PTTG in Thailand was under maintenance, and the maintenance in Saudi Arabia was postponed. The PTA load was 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, some plants restored their loads, and a new plant of Dushan Energy was put into operation. In the first and middle of October, South Korea exported 256000 tons of PX to China, an increase of 19000 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of August was 3918000 tons, an increase of 19000 tons compared to the previous month. The PXN was 243 US dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 101 US dollars (- 4) [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The PX inventory is difficult to continuously decline. The valuation is at a neutral level and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 2 yuan to 4614 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 30 yuan to 4535 yuan. The basis was - 81 yuan (unchanged), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, some plants restored their loads, and a new plant of Dushan Energy was put into operation. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The terminal texturing load increased by 4% to 84%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 75%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 17 was 2176000 tons, an increase of 16000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 69 yuan to 174 yuan, and the processing fee on the disk increased by 4 yuan to 273 yuan [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - side maintenance volume has decreased, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The valuation is affected by PTA maintenance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of potential production - cut signals [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 4069 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 16 yuan to 4167 yuan. The basis was 76 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (unchanged). The supply - side operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.3%, a decrease of 3.7%, with the synthetic gas method at 82.2% (an increase of 0.8%) and the ethylene method at 68.2% (a decrease of 6.3%). There were few changes in synthetic gas plants. In the oil - chemical sector, Fulian and Shenghong were under maintenance, CNOOC Shell restarted, and Zhongke Refining and Chemical had a short - term shutdown and then resumed. Overseas, Shell in the United States restarted. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The terminal texturing load increased by 4% to 84%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 75%. The forecast of imported arrivals was 198000 tons, and the departure volume from East China ports on October 27 was 8600 tons. The port inventory was 523000 tons, a decrease of 56000 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 628 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 561 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 261 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price remained unchanged at 765 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 680 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and the import volume is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities [28].