. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/08/15 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 美国抵押贷款利率创四个月最大降幅（单周降10基点至6.67%），叠加美财长表态暗示9月或降息50基点，美元指数走弱支撑贵金属。现货贴水4.1元/克反映实物需求平 稳，地缘政策扰动（如美俄资源合作动向）加剧避险情绪，基本面利多因素主导短期走势。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 500 600 700 800 900 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 2000 2500 3000 3500 70 80 90 100 110 120 source： wind 元/克 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Copper: With a downward adjustment in the Fed's rate - cut expectations and a slowdown in the rally of the domestic equity market, the sentiment has weakened slightly. The copper raw material supply remains tight with significant short - term supply disruptions, strongly supporting copper prices. However, the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly [1]. - Aluminum: The domestic commodity atmosphere is still supported by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and the tariff's marginal impact remains to be seen. The overall sentiment is neutral. Domestically, aluminum ingot inventories are at a relatively low level, and the rebound in export data indicates strong external demand, firmly supporting aluminum prices. Downstream consumption is weak, and the volatile trade situation exerts pressure. Short - term aluminum prices are likely to oscillate [3]. - Lead: In August, the port inventory of lead ore has increased, and the operating rate of primary lead has recovered. The raw material inventory of secondary lead remains low, and its operating rate is slowly rising. Lead ingot social inventory has increased again. Downstream consumption is under great pressure, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has dropped rapidly. There may be structural disturbances in the LME market, and there is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. - Zinc: The zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, TC has continued to rise, and the zinc ore supply remains loose. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has continued to increase, the smelter's production plan is high, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The LME market's structural disturbances are gradually subsiding, and zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. - Tin: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery has strengthened, and the tin ore output is expected to be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. However, the smelter still faces short - term raw material supply pressure. Domestic consumption in the off - season has been poor, while overseas demand driven by AI computing power has been strong. Short - term supply and demand are both weak, and tin prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Nickel: The short - term macro - atmosphere is positive, and the prices of stainless steel and nickel - iron have strengthened, driving a slight rebound in nickel prices. However, the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is still pressure for price correction [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The marginal improvement in supply is the focus of the market. News disturbances significantly affect the market sentiment, and the uncertainty of capital games is high. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see cautiously [10][11]. - Alumina: The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign ores continue, which is expected to support ore prices. However, the over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. After the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades, it is recommended to short at high levels [13]. - Stainless Steel: The upward movement of stainless steel futures prices is blocked, leading to increased market wait - and - see sentiment and decreased trading activity. Some product prices have slightly declined. The market demand has not shown an obvious recovery, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is still in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. The cost side provides strong support recently, but the upward price space is relatively limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed flat at $9777/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 25 to 155850 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.6 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9680 - 9850/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.59% to $2624/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20760 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 58.8 tons [3]. - Price Outlook: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20600 - 20850 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2590 - 2650/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index fell 0.92% to 16778 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1983.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: There is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index fell 0.59% to 22488 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2817/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 12.92 tons [5]. - Price Outlook: Zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. Tin - Price: SHFE tin main contract closed at 267420 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [6]. - Inventory: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 8 tons to 7422 tons, and LME inventory increased by 50 tons to 1830 tons [6]. - Price Outlook: Short - term tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 34000/ton for LME tin [6]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices declined and adjusted [8]. - Price Outlook: Short - term nickel prices may rebound slightly but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 1.22% to 82832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed at 85300 yuan, up 0.24% [10]. - Production and Inventory: This week's domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 2.2% to 19980 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142256 tons [10]. - Price Outlook: The futures contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 82400 - 88800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.98% to 3222 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory: Thursday's futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.87 tons to 5.17 tons [13]. - Price Outlook: It is recommended to short at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13025 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [15]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 107.89 tons, a 2.48% decrease [15]. - Price Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract fell 0.3% to 20140 yuan/ton [16]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption area's recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.07 tons to 3.52 tons [16]. - Price Outlook: The upward price space is relatively limited [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

. 美国7月CPI年率持平于2.7%强化9月降息预期（概率超93%）支撑金价，但核心CPI升至3.1%凸显通胀粘性潜在压制；美国债务总额首破37万亿美元加剧债务风险，叠加 特朗普施压美联储降息提振黄金货币属性；中美关税休战延期90天缓和避险情绪，而俄美领导人会晤临近或扰动地缘风险溢价；此前关税政策乌龙引发COMEX溢价波 动，国内现货需求减弱迹象显现，短期金价震荡偏强但需警惕情绪退潮风险。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 500 600 700 800 900 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 2000 2500 3000 3500 70 80 90 100 110 120 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/08/13 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a stable upward trend with a slight increase in prices and a notable rise in production rates for various types of copper [14] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with slight increases in production and inventory levels [15] - The gold market maintains high attractiveness due to international geopolitical tensions, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [16] - The rare earth sector is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and regulatory changes, benefiting leading companies in the field [34] - The antimony market is stabilizing with expectations of price recovery driven by export improvements and domestic production cuts [37] - The molybdenum market remains bullish due to low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel industry [38] - The tin market is experiencing upward momentum supported by strong inventory levels and improving macroeconomic conditions [39] Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices increased by 1.40% to $9,768.00 per ton on LME, with a notable rise in production rates [14] - Aluminum prices rose by 1.69% to $2,615.00 per ton on LME, with stable inventory levels [15] - Gold prices increased by 0.86% to $3,458.20 per ounce, driven by geopolitical factors [16] 2. Base and Precious Metals Fundamental Updates 2.1 Copper - The copper processing fee index rose to $38.06 per ton, with a significant increase in production rates across various sectors [14] 2.2 Aluminum - The operating capacity of alumina increased to 82.57%, reflecting recovery from maintenance [15] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold holdings in SPDR increased by 4.84 tons, indicating strong demand [16] 3. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - The rare earth market is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and regulatory changes [34] - The antimony market is stabilizing with expectations of price recovery driven by export improvements [37] - The molybdenum market remains bullish due to low inventory levels and strong demand [38] 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Fundamental Updates 4.1 Rare Earth - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 1.84%, but supply constraints are expected to drive future price increases [34] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices remain stable, with expectations of recovery due to improved export conditions [37] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise due to low inventory and strong demand from the steel industry [38] 4.4 Tin - Tin prices increased by 1.61%, supported by strong inventory levels and improving demand conditions [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous rise in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the People's Bank of China's consecutive 9 - month increase in gold reserves are the core supporting factors. The higher - than - expected number of initial jobless claims in the US strengthens the easing expectation, but the news of a meeting between Russian and US leaders eases geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment. Gold prices maintain a high - level volatile pattern under the influence of multiple factors [3]. - **Copper**: Copper prices have been mainly oscillating recently. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized. The spot market and inventory still have potential changes. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets, but investors should be wary of the negative impact of weak copper demand [15]. - **Aluminum**: Macro - level drivers for aluminum have temporarily slowed. In the short term, domestic demand has entered the off - season, downstream aluminum processing has declined, and social inventory has accumulated, but the absolute inventory remains low, supporting prices. Aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate. Alumina is expected to be weak in the short term due to high production capacity and rising inventory. The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy are good, and its futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price [36]. - **Zinc**: The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to oversupplied, and processing fees are expected to rise this month. The ore supply is abundant. Inventory has been accumulating, but LME zinc inventory provides some support. Demand is weak in the traditional off - season. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate with limited downside space in the short term [60]. - **Nickel**: Philippine nickel ore supply and domestic arrivals are high, and there is an expectation of price loosening. Nickel iron prices have strongly corrected, and stainless steel has reached the 13,000 - yuan mark, but downstream demand is weak. Sulfuric acid nickel has a tight supply in the market. Attention should be paid to the US dollar index [73]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rose slightly on Thursday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. Delays may lead to a slight upward movement in tin prices, while the impact of weak demand has not fully manifested [87]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disturbances persist, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range, strong - oscillating state. Attention should be paid to market changes and position risks [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Macro - level sentiment has faded. In the short term, the industry is expected to enter an oscillating state. In the long - term, the downside space for industrial silicon is limited, and the polysilicon market remains loose. Attention should be paid to industrial policies [115]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Conditions**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices, and the gold - silver ratio are presented. Long - term fund holdings of gold and silver, and the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver are also shown [4][12][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (including the main contract, consecutive contracts) and LME copper are provided. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized [15][16]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper in different domestic spot markets are given, as well as import profit and loss, processing fees, and the difference between refined and scrap copper [22][27][31]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper are presented [32][34]. Aluminum - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are provided. Spot aluminum prices in different regions, price differences, and import profit and loss are also shown [37][46]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts are presented [54]. Zinc - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided. Spot zinc prices, price differences, and import profit and loss are also shown [61][67]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory are presented [70]. Nickel - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided. Spot nickel prices, production costs, and downstream product prices are also shown [74][78]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts are presented [74]. Tin - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided. Spot tin prices and import profit and loss are also shown [88][94]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory are presented [98]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures are provided. Spot lithium prices, price differences, and import profit and loss are also shown [104][108]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts and social inventory are presented [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures and spot prices in different regions are provided. Price differences and basis are also shown [115][116]. - **Polysilicon and Related Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products are presented, as well as the inventory and production capacity of related products [122][133].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading, and in the absence of significant macro disturbances, it may mainly fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the alumina futures price has rebounded, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future. The core driver will be the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will remain under high - level pressure in the short term. The reference price range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is relatively tight, providing some support for the cost of recycled aluminum. However, the demand is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season. It is expected that the disk will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract running in the range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [5]. Zinc - The TC of zinc mines has risen, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June were both lower than expected. The fundamentals of loose supply and weak demand are insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but low inventories provide price support. It is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply recovers smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation has been stable, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will be mainly adjusted within a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The short - term sentiment of the disk is stable, but the policy's continuous stimulus expectations are insufficient, and the fundamental spot demand drive is not obvious. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract running in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic, gradually entering the peak season. However, due to the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the actual demand has not been significantly boosted. The disk is mainly trading on expectations, and the uncertainty on the supply side will still inject trading variables. Attention should be paid to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The alumina price in most regions remained stable, with only the average price in Guizhou rising by 0.45% [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. The aluminum profile开工率 decreased by 1.00% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed, such as the 2511 - 2512 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 3.02% week - on - week [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 2.65% week - on - week [8]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 73.81% [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The SHEF inventory increased by 3.42% [11]. Nickel Price and Cost - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton, and the premium of some brands remained stable. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel increased by 0.88% month - on - month [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel output decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while the import volume increased by 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.11% day - on - day [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts increased slightly [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.58% week - on - week [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 47.37% to 1,100 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts improves significantly, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the aluminum price has been running strongly, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low during the off - season, and the market discount continues to widen. The macro - level domestic consumption stimulus and the "anti - involution" sentiment support the aluminum price, but the expected changes in the Fed's interest rate cuts and tariff events bring great uncertainty. In the short term, the price is still under high - level pressure, and the main contract price this month is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 21,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is currently tight, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. However, the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue to inhibit the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global and domestic zinc ore production in May and June were lower than expected. The supply on the supply side is loose, and the demand side is weak, which is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the processing fees of smelters remain low. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, it is expected that the market will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is not high, and the overall market transaction is average. The short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news - related factors dominate the market trend. The trading core lies in the ore end. The supply uncertainty will inject trading variables into the market. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic. It is expected that the main contract price may test around 75,000. For those without positions, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Pay attention to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The price of SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.18% to 78,390 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports decreased by 7.01% to 521,600 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.45% to 3,330 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM East China ADC12, South China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 all increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.49% to 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 77,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.21%; the export volume was 25,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.61% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.81% to 22,470 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the export volume was 1,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%, the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%, and the zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13% [8]. Tin Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The price of Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased by 73.81% to - 73 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The refined tin import volume was 1,786 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.97%; the export volume was 1,973 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.04% to 123,250 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.04% to 121,350 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% to 25,451 tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.14% to 40,281 tons, and the bonded area inventory increased by 10.64% to 5,200 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 13,000 yuan/ton. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 6.38% to 220 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%; the export volume was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63%; the net export volume was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.22% to 69,000 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 65,490 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 60,420 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40%; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. In June, the lithium carbonate import volume was 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31%; the export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.84% [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a slight bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: No specific rating provided - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, production disruptions, policy expectations, and market sentiment. Each metal has its own trading strategies based on its specific situation [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated below the MA60 moving average and closed positive. The current copper price was 78,350 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 660 yuan. The market was evaluating the impact of the Codelco underground mine accident on the annual production target, with a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. LME copper might oscillate down to $9,500, and short positions were recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingots had been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. However, the output of aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the inventory peak might appear in August. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price was raised by 100 yuan to 19,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor. In the medium term, it had certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Alumina was under pressure and oscillating, with limited downward space [2] Zinc - The rebound trend of "anti - involution" black varieties was difficult to disprove. Shanghai zinc short - sellers reduced positions on dips, and the price rebounded. The downstream had stocked up at low prices before and was less willing to buy at high prices, resulting in a light spot trading volume. The fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand still dominated the medium - term short - selling strategy. However, due to positive expectations of domestic fiscal policies and Fed rate cuts during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, Shanghai zinc had a high probability of a phased rebound. Traders were advised to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down rapidly, and nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to its fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of ferronickel was basically stable at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. Traders were advised to pay attention to the end of the destocking process [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated during the session, and it was expected to be in an oscillating market. Overseas tin prices were supported by low visible inventory and a decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, attention was paid to the change in high social inventory due to the game between the major factory maintenance plan and weak consumption. Traders were advised to close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly, and the market trading volume shrank. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of goods entered the market. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons, and the smelter production decreased by 8% week - on - week. The price was expected to oscillate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed strongly. Xinjiang abolished the notice on the compliance capacity certification of industrial silicon, but it was clear that window guidance would still be implemented later. The spot price remained stable. In August, both supply and demand increased. The futures were expected to oscillate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon continued to rise, partly driven by the strength of coking coal. The SMM average price of polysilicon re - feed was 47,000 yuan/ton. The price was expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and traders were advised to pay attention to the sentiment transmission of coking coal and strengthen position risk control [10]