李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 12 月 1 日 关注美联储动向 铝价高位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，伴随美联储官员近期连续鸽派发言，以 及美国9月零售低于预期，11月消费信心指数骤降等 因素，美联储降息预期冲回86%以上，市场风险偏好 跟随改善。基本面新疆地区前期电解铝企业投产的 新产能本周继续投放，其余电解铝企业开工产能持 稳运行。消费端上周铝加工开工率小幅上行0.3%至 62.3%，在年末冲量需求下汽车领域相对稳健、铝线 缆温和回升，带动行业开工率上行。周度铝库存继续 去库，较上周四减少2.5万吨至59.6万吨，铝 ...

关于港股后市 恒生指数高开0.34%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。盘面上，有色板块活跃，中国铝业涨近3%，紫金矿业涨 近2%；小米集团涨0.54%，公司11月交付量超过4万台。 东吴证券表示，港股短期风险因素在减少，但反弹确认还需要催化剂。从中长期配置来看，当前位置有 吸引力。该行指，如果美联储降息预期升温，有利于港股回升。此外，美股AI科技泡沫叙事有所减 弱，港股科技随之回调较多，当前具备配置吸引力。 浦银国际表示，"迎合新趋势，拥抱新消费"依然将是2026年消费行业的重要投资策略。在该机构看来， 以下五大消费趋势涵盖了中国消费行业2026年大部分的投资机会：(1)高质价比国产品牌将持续占领消 费者心智(比如连锁咖啡、运动服饰、美妆)，(2)情绪类消费的需求将保持旺盛(比如潮玩、美妆、宠 物)，(3)新兴销售渠道加速崛起(比如即时零售、会员店、零食量贩)，(4)中国消费企业出海正当时(比如 潮玩、咖啡、家电)，(5)健康类消费是长期趋势(比如银发经济、保健品与医疗服务)。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。 中信证券表示，在增量资金越来越多的以左侧稳健型资金为主的资金生态下，A股/港股未来可能更多地 ...

港股12月首日三大指数迎来高开行情，恒生指数涨0.34%，国企指数涨0.31%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。 大型科技股多数呈现上涨，阿里巴巴、小米皆有涨幅；LME铜价创新高，铜业股集体强势，江西铜业 股份涨近5%，五矿资源涨近4%，铝业股、黄金股等有色金属齐涨，重型基建股、内房股、汽车股活 跃。另外，燃气股、家电股、建材水泥股走低。(格隆汇) ...

A股 - Minmetals Capital's announcement of a related party transaction has drawn industry attention, with its subsidiary Minmetals Trust planning to jointly invest in a joint venture with Minmetals Real Estate, injecting 300 million yuan in cash and an asset package valued at 16.29 billion yuan [2] - The results of the subscription for Moer Thread, known as the "first domestic GPU stock," were announced, with public funds, social security funds, and pension funds acquiring approximately 38.59 million shares, accounting for 98.44% of the offline final issuance [2] - Yunnan Aluminum announced plans to acquire stakes in three aluminum companies from Yunnan Metallurgical Group, while AVIC Helicopter's subsidiary plans to merge with another wholly-owned subsidiary [2] 港股 - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a surge, surpassing the NYSE and NASDAQ, aiming to become the top global fundraising market for new stocks by 2025, with 81 new listings raising a total of 215.98 billion HKD in the first ten months of the year [3] - More than half of the fundraising amount in Hong Kong has come from 14 A-share companies, with notable price discrepancies between A-shares and H-shares, exemplified by CATL's H-share price being over 14% higher than its A-share price [3] 理财 - In November, nine dividend-themed funds were established, raising a total of 6.615 billion yuan, marking a new monthly high for the year, with significant contributions from several funds launched on November 25 [4] - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have begun to withdraw 5-year large-denomination time deposits, focusing on shorter-term products, with a broad impact across various banks [4] - Sixteen technology-themed funds have been approved, including several ETFs focused on artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, with some products receiving approval on the same day they were submitted [4] 个人养老金 - As the year-end personal pension contribution window approaches, banks are intensifying promotional efforts, offering exclusive benefits to attract customers to open accounts and contribute funds, with potential subsidies of around 600 yuan for maximum contributions [5] 债务 - The issuance of new local special bonds in November is expected to reach 492.2 billion yuan, an increase of over 200 billion yuan from the previous month, alongside a significant rise in refinancing bonds [5] 其他 - From January to October, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China totaled 595.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing being the main profit growth drivers [6] - China remains the world's largest market for industrial robots, with significant improvements in performance and quality, and a projected increase in domestic multi-joint robot sales [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new credit repair management method, effective from April 1, 2026, allowing credit subjects to apply for credit repair under certain conditions [6] - China's foreign direct investment reached 1,033.23 billion yuan in the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with investments made in 9553 overseas enterprises across 152 countries and regions [7] - The Chinese medical device market is expected to reach 1.22 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by innovation, with a record number of approved innovative medical devices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's bauxite prices remain stable, and alumina supply continues to recover. The alumina market is in an oversupply stage. Although there is theoretical downward space for prices, excessive speculation is not advisable. A bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [1][4][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi's 58/5 bauxite was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan's at 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou's 60/6 bauxite at 596 yuan/ton. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines resumed production, but the increase was limited. During the heating season, production and environmental supervision in northern mines tightened, with few mines over - producing. Domestic ore supply is difficult to improve in the short term, and the actual market circulation of ore is extremely limited. Guinea's bauxite is priced at 70 - 71 dollars/dry ton. After the rainy season, its shipping volume is recovering. 398.7 million tons of new ore arrived, including 301.2 million tons from Guinea and 97.5 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China is 24.5 dollars/ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: Last week, alumina spot prices declined slightly. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2831.9 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from last week. Imported alumina port quotes were 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. Aluminum plants have high inventories and sufficient long - term orders, resulting in limited spot transactions. In terms of imports, 30,000 tons of alumina from East Australia were sold at FOB 311.50 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 2760 yuan/ton, and the import window opened. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2817 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 45 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the operating capacity, which had decreased due to maintenance, environmental protection, and other factors, began to rise again after the end of maintenance. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.7 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 84.4% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum's new production capacity started power - on on November 21. The first stage plans to put into operation 60 electrolytic cells, equivalent to about 66,000 tons of production capacity, and 100,000 tons are planned to be launched this year. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 44.243 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, Indonesia's KAI electrolytic aluminum plant was officially put into production in late November, planning to start 2 electrolytic cells per day, with an annualized operating capacity of about 8000 tons. India's Vedanta's Balco electrolytic aluminum plant expansion project is slowly being put into production, with an operating capacity of about 610,000 tons and an additional 50,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 29.596 million tons, an increase of 38,000 tons week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (November 27), the national alumina inventory was 4.415 million tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from last week. Remote electrolytic aluminum enterprises continue to absorb the current oversupply pressure by slightly increasing alumina inventories. In the Xinjiang region, some industrial chain groups' alumina inventories are increasing steadily. In the western region, some industrial chain and single - entity electrolytic aluminum enterprises are still in the process of increasing inventories through hedging and tax - included purchases. Although the winter storage actions of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are relatively small, the intention for winter storage is concentrated in the industry, especially in remote aluminum plants. Quantitatively, the inventories of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are steadily increasing. Alumina enterprises' inventories are relatively low, while port inventories of imported alumina are relatively high [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 258,413 tons, an increase of 7,503 tons from last week. Last week, the alumina futures price continued to be weak. Fundamentally, alumina enterprises in Shanxi and Henan are in a loss situation, but their determination to cut production is still weak, and the industry remains oversupplied, with inventories continuing to accumulate. Considering the current supply and demand, there is theoretical downward space for alumina prices, but excessive speculation is not advisable. Since the industry is still in an oversupply stage, a bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Increase in Theoretical Import Profit of Alumina**: As of Friday (November 28), the Australian alumina quotation was about 313.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 dollars/ton from November 21. According to real - time data, the cost of reaching northern Chinese ports is about 2796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan. Affected by the decline in the Australian FOB price, the northern theoretical import profit rose to 52 yuan/ton [16] - **End of 9 - Month Net Export of Chinese Alumina**: In October 2025, China's alumina imports were 189,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 215% and a year - on - year surge of 2923%; alumina exports were 176,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The net import of alumina in October was 13,000 tons, ending the 9 - month continuous net export pattern in 2025 [16] - **Alumina Enterprises in Dilemma**: ALD believes that after mid - December, the market supply pressure is expected to be more intense. Although strong price fluctuations are not expected for the time being, the inventory changes of alumina enterprises and electrolytic aluminum enterprises will be the main dynamic reference variables for later judgment [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report provides charts on domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventories, port shipping volumes of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventories of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][25][27][29] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes charts on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][34][35][40] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents charts on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventories, alumina plants' alumina inventories, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventories, alumina port inventories, domestic total social alumina inventories, the amount and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of alumina holding volume to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][45][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply surplus logic and expectations remain unchanged, mainly due to variables in Guinean bauxite. For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic supply is relatively certain with limited growth; Southeast Asian new - capacity and European复产 expectations may fall short due to policy and power - cost issues. Global supply pressure is not significant as the supply growth rate of scrap aluminum will decline. In terms of consumption, the domestic alloying process continues, with a higher proportion of molten aluminum and lower ingot production, keeping inventory at a low level and not pressuring absolute prices. For terminal consumption, there are good expectations at the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, with domestic consumption structural reform continuing and overseas investment driving overseas infrastructure consumption. Due to the increasing proportion of scrap aluminum in the supply, the actual consumption is underestimated. Macroscopically, although the interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain, the long - term interest - rate cut cycle remains, and the aluminum price is still undervalued [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina - **1.1 Domestic Ore Supply Falls Short of Expectations, and Prices Are Firm**: In 2025, from January to October, domestic ore production was 5051000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, but monthly production declined year - on - year from August. Rainfall in northern regions affected mining, and policy tightening led to a decrease in illegal production. It is expected that domestic bauxite will hardly grow in 2026 [13]. - **1.2 Imported Ore Has Policy Risks, but the Current Expectation Is Still in Surplus**: From January to October 2025, China imported 170.96 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 30%, with 127.116 million tons from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 38.4%. The annual import is expected to reach 200 - 210 million tons. Even without an increase in 2026, there will be no shortage. However, there are political uncertainties in Guinea. The price of imported bauxite has been falling, with a cost support of about 65 US dollars per ton [5][23]. - **1.3 Supply Will Continue to Be in Surplus Without Accidents**: In 2025, from January to October, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production was 74.458 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. In 2026, alumina is expected to add 860000 tons of new capacity, and the production is expected to reach 97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. The supply surplus will exceed 1 million tons. The actual situation may see new capacity and production cuts coexisting, but the surplus pattern is likely to continue. China is expected to remain a net exporter of alumina in 2026 [29][30]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - **2.1 Supply Growth Depends on Overseas, and the Supply Increment May Be Lower Than Expected**: In 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was expected to be 30.235 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. In 2026, it is expected to be 31.825 million tons, an increase of 1.59 million tons. However, due to power - supply and cost issues, the actual output may be lower. Without considering Mozambique's production cut, the overseas output increment in 2026 is expected to be 1.2 million tons; with the cut, it may be reduced to 800000 - 900000 tons. New capacity is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, with a planned total of 1.75 million tons in 2026, but there are risks of delayed production [42]. - **2.2 Domestic Supply Has Small Growth, and There Is No Supply Pressure**: From January to October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 36.506 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 675000 tons. The annual production in 2025 is expected to be 43.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In 2026, the net new capacity is 620000 tons, and the new capacity is expected to contribute about 450000 tons to the production, with an annual output of 44.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 520000 tons and a growth rate of 1.2%. The import of Russian and Indonesian aluminum ingots is increasing, and the import in 2026 is expected to reach 2.7 million tons, an increase of about 250000 tons [50][53]. - **2.3 Scrap Aluminum Increases the Supply of Aluminum Elements, Leading to an Underestimation of Actual Consumption**: From January to October 2025, China's net import of aluminum scrap was 1.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%, and the net import of aluminum alloy was 612000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9%. The domestic scrap aluminum production was 6.925 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. It is estimated that the supply of scrap aluminum elements in 2025 will be 9.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%, accounting for 17.5% of the total aluminum element supply. The increase in the proportion of scrap aluminum in the supply has led to a long - term low growth rate of apparent primary aluminum consumption [59]. - **2.4 Two Perspectives on Aluminum Price Valuation**: From the perspective of electrolytic aluminum production cost, the weighted profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is at a 15 - year high, indicating that the aluminum price is overvalued. However, from the perspective of the copper - to - aluminum ratio, which is currently above 4 and at a historical high, the aluminum price is undervalued. Historically, a high copper - to - aluminum ratio is often due to macro - factors, and the current high ratio is due to the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and the end of balance - sheet reduction. Therefore, the aluminum price is expected to rise with copper [65]. - **2.5 Aluminum Ingot Inventory Performance Is Disappointing**: During the traditional peak consumption season in 2025, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory did not decline as expected. The reasons include the progress of the aluminum - water ratio, the seasonal casting demand of northwest electrolytic aluminum plants, and the flattening of seasonal peaks and troughs due to the decline in real - estate and traditional infrastructure consumption. The current social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is about 600000 tons, and the aluminum rod social inventory is about 110000 tons, with relatively low absolute values and little negative impact on prices [67]. 3.3 Downstream Consumption - **3.1 The Continuous Expansion of Intermediate Processing Enterprises Does Not Mean High Negative - Feedback Pressure**: As of November 20, 2025, China's aluminum rod production was about 15.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, but the operating rate was less than 60% and at a low level. From January to October, the production of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils was 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20000 tons, and the operating rate was about 70%, at a three - year low. The expansion of intermediate processing capacity and the continuation of integrated electrolytic aluminum production have led to the shutdown of some small and old factories. The increase in intermediate processing products is in line with actual consumption growth [75]. - **3.2 Aluminum Product Exports Compensate for Aluminum Material Exports, and Next Year's Export Expectations Are Good**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative net export of aluminum materials was 4.272 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%, while the cumulative export of aluminum products was 2.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The combined export of aluminum materials and products decreased by only 3.1%, and the decline is narrowing. In 2026, without additional export - policy disturbances, aluminum material exports are expected to turn positive year - on - year, and the combined export of aluminum materials and products is expected to contribute an increment of 630000 tons, with an estimated net increment of 450000 tons considering alloying and scrap aluminum [82]. - **3.3 With the Halving of Domestic Vehicle Purchase Tax, the Increment of the Automobile Industry Depends on Exports**: From January to October 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 27.692 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%, with new - energy vehicle production increasing by 33.1% year - on - year and traditional vehicle production decreasing by 0.1% year - on - year. The annual production is expected to be 33.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The export of automobiles has made a significant contribution to production. In 2026, although the halving of the vehicle purchase tax may put pressure on production, with the current high export growth rate, the automobile production is expected to reach 37.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, and the new - energy vehicle production is expected to grow by 20%, driving an increase in aluminum consumption of about 1 million tons, with an estimated increment in primary aluminum element supply of about 850000 tons [91]. - **3.4 The Weakening of Photovoltaic Is Compensated by Energy Storage and Power Grid Investment**: From January to October 2025, China's component production was 477.6GW, a year - on - year increase of only 0.5%. The photovoltaic installation from January to September was 240.4GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.4%, but the full - year installation is expected to be 280 - 290GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3 - 5%. In 2026, the component production is expected to be about 575GW, similar to 2025, and the installation is expected to be about 250GW, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, dragging down aluminum consumption by about 600000 tons. In 2026, the power grid is expected to have an average annual compound growth rate of 8%, and power grid investment is expected to drive an increase in aluminum consumption of 370000 tons. The energy - storage shipment is expected to reach about 850GW, a year - on - year increase of about 50%, driving an increase in aluminum consumption of 200000 tons [98][105]. - **3.5 Terminal Consumption Structural Reform**: Real estate remains a drag on consumption, but its impact is weakening. In 2026, it is expected to drag down aluminum consumption by 5%, equivalent to 550000 tons of primary aluminum elements. The decline in real - estate consumption and the slowdown in traditional infrastructure growth do not affect overall consumption resilience. In 2026, exports are expected to maintain high - speed growth in commodity consumption, driven by China's investment in third - world countries [109]. 3.4 Summary - Alumina supply surplus is expected to continue, mainly due to variables in Guinean bauxite. For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic supply is relatively certain with limited growth, and overseas supply may fall short of expectations. The global supply pressure is not significant. The domestic alloying process continues, keeping inventory at a low level. Terminal consumption has good prospects at the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, with domestic consumption structural reform and overseas investment driving consumption. The increasing proportion of scrap aluminum in the supply has led to an underestimation of actual consumption. Macroscopically, the aluminum price is still undervalued [114].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：富宝有色） 核心提示：本周废铝价格稳中上涨，幅度0-100元/吨不等，合金白料、喷涂、铝线价格表现略好于生 铝、铝屑等铸造铝合金原料；预计下周废铝偏稳运行，涨跌空间有限；铝企下游订单不温不火，成品售 价处于贴水状态、利润不足，一定程度上限制废铝原料价格反弹。但华东、西南等多地废铝市场供应偏 紧亦支持其抗跌属性较强，综合来看，预计下期废铝或延续偏稳运行。 一、国内再生铝合金市场分析 1、再生铝合金市场情况 期内A00铝锭重心继续下移，整体表现先涨后跌；截止11月27日，富宝现货A00铝价格在21440-21480 元/吨，均价21460元/吨，环比11月20日跌110元/吨；富宝现货ADC12铝合金锭价格20800元/吨，环比11 月20日平稳；目前华东地区非交割品ADC12铝合金锭主流价格在20600-20800元/吨之间，华南ADC12主 流价格20900-21000元/吨，西南地区ADC12铝合金锭主流价格在20800-21100元/吨，环保11月20日平 稳。交割品价格多高100-200元/吨不等。 期内铸造铝合金期货先抑后扬，主力合约盘中一度跌至2.02万附近，随后陆续抬升，扳 ...

Group 1 - The long-term trend of "de-dollarization" is driving some countries to reduce the proportion of U.S. Treasury bonds in their foreign exchange reserves and increase their gold holdings, a trend that is not weakened by the easing of U.S.-China trade disputes [1][2] - The liquidity easing brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is accelerating the process of rising precious metals, with expectations for a price increase in 2025 due to the combination of these trends [1][2] - In 2026, the new Federal Reserve Chairman may adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting approach amid the backdrop of midterm elections, and continued increases in gold ETF holdings by European and American investors are expected to sustain the upward trend in precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - The demand for basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is expected to rise due to liquidity easing and increased physical demand driven by AI investments, while supply constraints in mining and smelting will support a steady increase in industrial metal prices [1][2] - For copper, the ongoing liquidity trend and significant potential demand from AI data centers and power grids will likely lead to a sustained upward movement in copper prices, with the possibility of exceeding expectations [1][2] - The aluminum sector is expected to maintain good profit levels due to tight supply and demand dynamics, with leading companies in the industry likely to achieve strong profitability through resource management and supply chain extension [1][2] Group 3 - The supply and demand for lithium carbonate is projected to return to a tight balance in 2026, with a significant increase in price levels driven by strong demand from energy storage and power applications [2] - The global demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow by 24.2% in 2026, with a demand growth rate of approximately 50% from energy storage and just under 20% from power batteries [2] - The supply growth for lithium is forecasted at around 18.1%, indicating a shift from a loose balance to a tight balance in the lithium market [2] Group 4 - Domestic rare earth prices are expected to rise, benefiting companies in the rare earth magnetic materials sector, as the supply side faces constraints and demand from new energy policies strengthens [2] - The growth rate for demand from sectors such as new energy vehicles, wind power, and energy-efficient variable frequency air conditioners is projected to reach 29%, 18%, and 28% respectively by 2025 [2] - The tightening of domestic rare earth supply, coupled with overseas demand for replenishment, is likely to amplify price increases, providing a dual boost to the performance and valuation of rare earth magnetic material companies [2]

波黑《独立报》11月27日报道。为应对欧洲市场需求疲软、能源成本高企及亚洲 竞争压力，全球铝业巨头挪威海德鲁公司宣布将关闭位于英国（切尔特纳姆、贝德瓦 斯）、德国（吕登沙伊德）、意大利（费尔特雷）和荷兰（德吕嫩）的五座铝型材工 厂，预计影响730个工作岗位。本次重组将产生19亿挪威克朗（约合1.8亿美元）费用， 但预计从2027年起每年可节约超5亿克朗。企业战略重心将转向低碳铝材、能源项目及 电力基础设施领域，持续推动2030年可持续发展目标。（驻波黑使馆经商处） （原标题：挪威海德鲁宣布关闭欧洲五国铝型材工厂） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market doubts whether the current valuation of NVIDIA has a bubble. The dovish shift of hawkish officials, mild US inflation, and rising employment risks have increased the expectation of an interest rate cut in December. The broad - monetary cycle provides upward momentum for non - ferrous metals [6]. - The domestic supply of bauxite remains tight, while the overseas supply is expected to be loose. The daily output of alumina in October decreased slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity is stable, and the price may oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - Due to supply - side reforms and the pressure of global carbon neutrality, the capacity expansion space of electrolytic aluminum is limited. The supply shortage of primary aluminum may continue. The short - term macro environment is favorable for aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Market Outlook) - Despite NVIDIA's strong performance and outlook, market doubts about its valuation bubble persist. The shift in the stance of hawkish officials, combined with mild inflation and rising employment risks in the US, has increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December, which provides upward momentum for non - ferrous metals [6]. - The domestic bauxite supply is tight, but overseas supply is expected to be loose. The daily output of alumina in October decreased slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity is stable, and its price may oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum's capacity expansion is restricted. The supply shortage of primary aluminum may continue. With the decline in aluminum prices, downstream procurement has increased, and social inventories have decreased. The short - term macro environment is favorable for aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the December dot - plot on the interest - rate cut expectation for next year [6]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [6]. 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed divergent trends. The alumina futures price continued to be weak, hitting a low of 2,701 yuan/ton. The futures prices of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy rose first and then fell, reaching highs of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively [8][9]. 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) - **US Situation**: The US economic data is mixed. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The shift in the stance of hawkish officials has increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December to 75%. The long - term market pricing implies more than three interest - rate cuts within a year, which is positive for copper prices [14]. - **China Situation**: In October, China's national economy was generally stable. The manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly. The government has introduced policies to promote "two - major" construction and consumption. Six departments have jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027 [16][20]. 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) - **Supply Side** - **Bauxite**: In October, the domestic bauxite output decreased. The supply in Henan has recovered, but that in Shanxi has not fully recovered, and the domestic supply remains tight. China's bauxite imports in October decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As the rainy season in Guinea ends, the imported bauxite supply is expected to increase [22][25]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year, but the daily output decreased slightly. The operating capacity is still at a high level, but the weekly operating rate decreased slightly. The production profit of some enterprises has turned negative, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The alumina price is expected to oscillate at a low level [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, but the overall increase is limited due to energy - consumption indicators and capacity - replacement policies. The winter environmental protection restrictions may have a limited impact on production. Overseas, the release of electrolytic aluminum capacity is lower than expected due to various factors [30][34]. - **Demand Side** - **Aluminum Processing Enterprises**: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the开工 rate of aluminum processing enterprises. The开工 rate of aluminum profiles is 62.0%, with different trends in various sub - sectors [38]. - **Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which suppresses the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector [43]. - **New Energy Sector**: The new energy sector maintains high prosperity. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow, and the demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is strong [47]. - **Home Appliance Market**: The home appliance market is under pressure. The output of most home appliances decreased in October, and the sales are expected to remain under pressure in the future [50]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Inventories**: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly compared with the end of October and may continue to decline. The SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level [54]. - **Social Inventories**: As of November 24, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased compared with the previous week. The low social inventory provides support for aluminum prices [57]. - **Other Aspects** - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper [59]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: The开工 rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable in November. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the import of un - wrought aluminum alloy decreased significantly in October [62][65]. - **Aluminum Alloy Trade**: In October, the import of un - wrought aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The long - term price inversion has led to a significant reduction in imports [65].