Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the zinc market, with the current state of zinc being in a volatile state, awaiting further guidance from the demand side [1] Group 2: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In December 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports were 462,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%. From January to December 2025, cumulative imports were 5.324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.59%. Although the December imports decreased month - on - month, they remained at a high level in recent years. The domestic mine supply shortage is expected to gradually improve. In March, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1,300 - 1,700 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was $24.33 per dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of $7.17. Last week, the domestic zinc concentrate spot processing fee remained at 1,400 - 1,700 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the imported zinc concentrate spot processing fee was $15.38 per dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of $8.37 [2] Supply - In February 2025, China's refined zinc production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons (about 10%) compared to January due to the Spring Festival. Some smelters in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Hunan and other places carried out regular maintenance or shutdown during the Spring Festival, and the zinc ore processing fee remained at a low level, with the smelters' raw material inventory lower than the same period in previous years. In March, after the Spring Festival, smelters resumed production, but the current domestic and foreign processing fees are still at historical lows. The production profit of smelting enterprises after excluding by - products is about - 2,022 yuan per ton. Even with the by - product benefits of sulfuric acid and silver, smelters are near the break - even point. The supply of smelting enterprises increased month - on - month, but the release space is still limited. In December 2025, the refined zinc imports were 8,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%; the exports were 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. Currently, the domestic Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating weakly, the refined zinc export profit window is closed, and imports are at a loss [3] Consumption - Last week, the operating rate increased significantly week - on - week. After the Lantern Festival, downstream enterprises gradually returned to work, but the resumption of production was slow. Some enterprises postponed their start - up time due to insufficient orders or meager profits, resulting in the overall operating rate being significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming pre - festival stocks and long - term contract arrivals. Although the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved, the overall purchasing sentiment is not high, the spot market transactions are still sluggish, and the discount is running at a low level. Terminal consumption shows a differentiated pattern. Infrastructure investment is expected to recover at a low level, but the growth of the automobile and home appliance industries has slowed down due to pre - consumption overdraft, and the real estate sector is still in the bottom - grinding stage [4] Spot and Inventory - As of March 6, the average price of 0 zinc ingots in the Yangtze River spot market was 24,410 yuan per ton. The spot price oscillated slightly lower this week. The basis of Yangtze River spot 0 zinc against the main contract fluctuated between premium and discount. The LME zinc spot maintained a discount of - $28.21. As of the week of March 6, the LME inventory was 94,800 tons, showing a slight decline and currently lower than the average level in recent years. In China, the zinc inventory increased. As of March 9, the domestic social inventory was 218,200 tons, continuously accumulating and at a high level in the past four years. As of March 6, the SHFE inventory was 134,000 tons, an increase of 8,869 tons week - on - week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - The LME inventory has slightly decreased, but the overseas zinc inventory has increased significantly compared to the low point in the fourth quarter of last year. The spot maintains a discount pattern, and the boosting effect of low inventory on zinc prices has weakened. In China, the Shanghai - London price ratio has declined, the import of ores is limited due to deeper losses, and enterprises mainly rely on domestic ores for production. The domestic processing fee has stopped falling, but the import processing fee continues to weaken, and the shortage of ore supply has not been significantly improved. After the Spring Festival in March, smelters resumed production, and the supply of smelting enterprises increased month - on - month, but the current domestic and foreign processing fees are at historical lows, and the release space is still limited. The import and export windows remain closed, and the import loss has widened. In terms of demand, after the Lantern Festival, downstream enterprises gradually returned to work, but the resumption of production was slow. Some enterprises postponed their start - up time due to insufficient orders or meager profits, resulting in the overall operating rate being significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming pre - festival stocks and long - term contract arrivals. Although the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved, the overall purchasing sentiment is not high, the spot market transactions are still sluggish, and the discount is running at a low level. Overall, in the short term, the growth space of supply is limited, but the improvement of domestic demand is limited. The spot maintains a discount, and the high - level inventory puts pressure on zinc prices. However, as the peak season approaches in the second half of the month, with the expectation of accelerated recovery of downstream demand, China is expected to reduce inventory, and zinc prices may have the impetus to rebound. Later, attention should be paid to domestic demand and inventory conditions [7]

原木周报： 海运费上涨，需求恢复 20260311 弘业金融研究院 数据来源：钢联、弘业金融研究院 姜周曦琳 从业资格号：F03114700 投资咨询号：Z0022394 原木产业数据 期现货： 供应： 数据来源：钢联、弘业金融研究院 • 现货端，日照港3.9米中A辐射松原木750元/方，较上期持稳；本周太仓港4米中A辐射松原木780元/方，较上期持稳。期货端，截至3月10日收 盘，原木主力2605报收791.5元/方。整体来看，原木现货价格偏强运行，原木期货价格小幅上行。 • 据木联统计，截至2026年3月9日，3月新西兰辐射松原木外盘（CFR）报价区间为117-122美元/JAS方，较上月上涨5美元/JAS方。2026年3月 下旬，进口针叶原木散货船海运费（新西兰→中国）40美元/JAS方，较3月上旬32美元/JAS方上涨8美元/JAS方，环比上涨25%。 • 本周13港原木预计到港量：2026年3月9日-3月15日，中国13港新西兰原木预到船11条，较上周增加0条，周环比增加0%；到港总量约34.9万方， 较上周减少5.9万方，周环比减少14%。 • 上周13港原木实际到港量：2026年3月2日-3月8 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The implied volatility of various agricultural commodity options, including apple, cotton, jujube, egg, log, hog, and sugar options, maintains fluctuations above the mean level of 0.0000. For most options, it is recommended to construct a short - call + short - put option combination strategy to obtain option time - value returns, with dynamic adjustment of positions in some cases [7][19][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Apple Options (AP) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the AP605 contract was 9799 yuan, up 73 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day. The trading volume was 55203 lots, a decrease of 4721 lots, and the open interest was 116571 lots, an increase of 3989 lots [4][7]. - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility fluctuated above the mean. The open - interest PCR was 1.9461, at the 98.37% level in the past year. The pressure level was 10000, and the support level was 9000 [7]. - **Option Strategy**: No directional strategy. For the volatility strategy, construct a short - call + short - put option combination strategy, e.g., S_AP2605P9400, S_AP2605P9500, S_AP2605C10000, S_AP2605C9900 [8]. 3.2 Cotton Options (CF) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the CF605 contract was 15350 yuan, down 50 yuan or 0.32% from the previous day. The trading volume was 814164 lots, an increase of 156255 lots, and the open interest was 888434 lots, an increase of 14990 lots [16][19]. - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility fluctuated above the mean. The open - interest PCR was 0.7806, at the 53.06% level in the past year. The pressure level was 15000, and the support level was 13000 [19]. - **Option Strategy**: No directional strategy. For the volatility strategy, construct a short - call + short - put option combination strategy, e.g., S_CF2605P14400, S_CF2605P14600, S_CF2605C15800 [20]. 3.3 Jujube Options (CJ) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the CJ605 contract was 8935 yuan, up 25 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The trading volume was 64696 lots, a decrease of 30447 lots, and the open interest was 116996 lots, an increase of 3580 lots [28][31]. - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility fluctuated above the mean. The open - interest PCR was 0.2897, at the 33.06% level in the past year. The pressure level was 9800, and the support level was 9000 [31]. - **Option Strategy**: No directional strategy. For the volatility strategy, construct a short - call + short - put option combination strategy and dynamically adjust positions, e.g., S_Cl2605P8600, S_Cl2605C8900, S_Cl2605C9000 [32]. 3.4 Egg Options (JD) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the jd2604 contract was 3239 yuan, down 22 yuan or 0.67% from the previous day. The trading volume was 161235 lots, an increase of 28369 lots, and the open interest was 166035 lots, a decrease of 10367 lots [40][43]. - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility fluctuated above the mean. The open - interest PCR was 0.7042, at the 88.16% level in the past year. The pressure level was 3400, and the support level was 3100 [43]. - **Option Strategy**: No directional strategy. For the volatility strategy, construct a short - call + short - put option combination strategy, obtain option time - value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust positions to keep the position delta neutral, e.g., S_D2604P3100, S_D2604P3200, S_JD2604C3350, S_JD2604C3450 [44]. 3.5 Log Options (LG) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the lg2605 contract was 793.5 yuan, down 3 yuan or 0.37% from the previous day. The trading volume was 2378 lots, a decrease of 2748 lots, and the open interest was 7298 lots, an increase of 190 lots [51][54]. - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility fluctuated above the mean. The open - interest PCR was 0.5052, at the 18.37% level in the past year. The pressure level was 950, and the support level was 775 [54]. - **Option Strategy**: No directional or volatility strategy [55]. 3.6 Hog Options (LH) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the Ih2605 contract was 11395 yuan, down 15 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The trading volume was 54028 lots, a decrease of 38690 lots, and the open interest was 154348 lots, a decrease of 119 lots [62][65]. - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility fluctuated above the mean. The open - interest PCR was 0.2946, at the 35.92% level in the past year. The pressure level was 15600, and the support level was 11000 [65]. - **Option Strategy**: No directional strategy. For the volatility strategy, construct a short - call + short - put option combination strategy, obtain option time - value returns, and dynamically adjust positions to keep the position delta neutral, e.g., S_LH2605P10600, S_LH2605P10800, S_LH2605C11600, S_LH2605C11800 [66]. 3.7 Sugar Options (SR) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the SR605 contract was 5285 yuan, up 37 yuan or 0.70% from the previous day. The trading volume was 341075 lots, an increase of 166563 lots, and the open interest was 462071 lots, an increase of 15849 lots [74][77]. - **Option Factors**: The implied volatility fluctuated above the mean. The open - interest PCR was 0.4636, at the 3.67% level in the past year. The pressure level was 5400, and the support level was 5200 [77]. - **Option Strategy**: No directional strategy. For the volatility strategy, construct a short - call + short - put option combination strategy, obtain option time - value returns, and dynamically adjust positions to keep the position delta neutral, e.g., S_SR2605P5100, S_SR2605C5400 [78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market panic was relieved as the US president said the war with Iran was basically over on Monday, but the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continued, and the market risk - aversion sentiment supported the gold price to some extent. The short - term market has high uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 1.86% to $5198.70 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 4.79% to $88.57 per ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.98% to 1154.88 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 1.67% to 22536 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - On March 10, the holding of the world's largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust was 1073.57 tons, an increase of 2.86 tons from the previous trading day. The holding of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 56.34 tons from the previous day, and the current holding was 15654.57 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 0.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 99.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April was 13.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 86.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively was 0.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June was 37.5% [1] - Trump said there might be conditional negotiations with Iran. But within Iran, the Iranian foreign minister said the new supreme leader would not negotiate with the US, while the Iranian vice - president said they had not given up on resolving the issue through negotiations [1] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait will cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day in total [1] Market Logic - On Tuesday, the US dollar index fluctuated and closed up 0.23% at 98.94; the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond rose and closed at 4.16%. ICE Brent crude oil first plunged and then rebounded, closing at $91.4 per barrel. The US energy giant ExxonMobil's chief economist warned that the Strait of Hormuz might remain closed for a longer time than the market expected [1] Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Iran situation's tail - risk has risen sharply, mainly affecting crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors. Oil price increases have also driven up oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the sessions. The Chinese government sets economic growth at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan [2]. - China's January - February foreign trade data exceeded expectations, driven by the Spring Festival base effect and global external demand recovery. However, geopolitical risks may affect March data [2]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different focuses [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, followed by a large - scale counter - attack from Iran. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and the US may increase troops. The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East, disrupted the supply chain, and blocked the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - Some Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries have cut production. The new supreme leader of Iran is Mujtaba Khamenei. Trump said the war in Iran "won't end this week" but "will end soon" [1]. Domestic and International News - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqchi said Iran's new supreme leader won't consider dialogue or negotiation with the US. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Iran won't trust US commitments [6]. - Trump said there may be conditional negotiations with Iran but expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's new supreme leader [6]. - China's February exports and imports in US dollars increased by 39.6% and 13.8% respectively, with a trade surplus of $909.8 billion. In RMB, exports and imports increased by 36.1% and 10.9% respectively, with a trade surplus of 6375.5 billion yuan [6]. Macro - economic Data - Due to the government shutdown, the US Q4 2025 GDP growth rate was 1.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%. The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased, and rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts [2]. - China's January social financing had a good start. China's February official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. February CPI rose to 1.3%, core CPI rose 1.8%, and PPI decline narrowed to 0.9% [2]. - China's January - February exports in US dollars increased by 21.8%, imports by 19.8%. February single - month exports increased by 39.6%. Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa increased by 27.8%, 29.4%, and 49.9% respectively. High - tech and electromechanical products were the main drivers. Imported commodities showed differentiation [2]. Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices drive commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals are inversely related to oil prices. Energy sector needs to watch the Iran situation and "sell - the - fact" risks. Oil price increases drive oil - chemical products and oilseeds. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - After Trump's statement, the current war situation is shifting towards a low - intensity state, and risk assets generally continue the rebound trend. Domestic stock indices follow the rebound of risk assets, but are generally restricted by the lack of upward - driving factors in the fundamentals, and are expected to undergo a restorative adjustment within a range [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first two months of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.1%. China's imports and exports to the United States decreased by 16.9%, while those to ASEAN and the EU increased by about 20% [1] - **Geopolitical Situation**: Trump said the war with Iran would end "soon" but not this week, and asked Israel to stop further air strikes on Iranian energy facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the action against Iran was "not over", and an Iranian deputy foreign minister said Iran's priority was "decisive defense" and "the end of the war is in Iran's hands" [1] - **Stock Index Performance**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to 4123.14 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.04%. Most sector indices rose, with communication, electronics, machinery, and building materials industries leading the gains, while petroleum and petrochemical, coal, and steel industries led the declines. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.4 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the S&P 500 index down 0.21% to 6781.48 points and the Nasdaq up 0.01% to 22697.1 points [1] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IC and IM declined. The trading volume and open interest of index futures decreased simultaneously [2] 2. Strategy - Given the current situation where the war situation is shifting to a low - intensity state and risk assets are rebounding, domestic stock indices are expected to have a restorative adjustment within a range due to the lack of upward - driving factors in the fundamentals [3] 3. Charts Summary - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US treasury bond yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US treasury bond yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10] - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Present the daily performance of major domestic stock indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., as well as charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balance [6][13][14] - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Provide data on the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), their basis, and inter - period spreads, along with relevant charts [6][15][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on March 10, 2026, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio and their changes compared to the previous trading day for different sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy and chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On March 10, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 737.849 billion yuan, a - 27.56% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1559.148 billion yuan, a - 4.74% change; the trading - holding ratio was 46.33% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 363.114 billion yuan, a - 26.79% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 862.262 billion yuan, a - 1.65% change; the trading - holding ratio was 42.13% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - The basic metal plate had a trading volume of 622.754 billion yuan, a - 33.58% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 667.674 billion yuan, a + 0.50% change; the trading - holding ratio was 104.11%. The precious metal plate had a trading volume of 659.221 billion yuan, a - 28.43% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 505.716 billion yuan, a + 3.60% change; the trading - holding ratio was 152.03% [1] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 1689.288 billion yuan, a + 34.93% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 527.690 billion yuan, a - 10.41% change; the trading - holding ratio was 274.44% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 447.832 billion yuan, a - 42.86% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 647.327 billion yuan, a - 3.91% change; the trading - holding ratio was 64.71% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 223.908 billion yuan, a - 42.15% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 319.243 billion yuan, a - 1.77% change; the trading - holding ratio was 67.19% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the financial market, including important indices, option - related ETF markets, option factors (such as volume - to - open - interest PCR and pressure - support levels), and offers corresponding option strategy suggestions for different option varieties. The recommended strategy for various options is to construct a short call + short put option combination strategy to gain option time - value returns and adjust positions dynamically [8][18][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4123.14, up 26.54 (0.65%) with a trading volume of 10364.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 1576.79 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14354.07, up 286.57 (2.04%) with a trading volume of 6623.70 billion yuan, a decrease of 516.71 billion yuan. Other important indices also showed varying degrees of increase [3]. Option - related ETF Market Overview - For example, the Shenzhen 100ETF closed at 3.500, up 0.077 (2.25%) with a trading volume of 70.82 million shares, a decrease of 0.40 million shares, and a trading amount of 2.47 billion yuan, an increase of 0.06 billion yuan. The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.296, up 0.095 (2.97%) with a trading volume of 1240.93 million shares, a decrease of 130.99 million shares, and a trading amount of 40.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.42 billion yuan [4]. Option Factor - Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - For the 510050 (SSE 50ETF call option), the trading volume was 297096, a decrease of 263814, the open interest was 785728, an increase of 4692, the trading volume PCR was 0.86, a decrease of 0.13, and the open interest PCR was 0.75, an increase of 0.01. For different option varieties, there were different volume and open - interest changes and PCR values [5][15][25][35]. Option Factor - Pressure - Support - For the 510050 (SSE 50ETF option), the weighted implied volatility was 15.01%, a decrease of 1.76%, and the annual average implied volatility was 17.51%. Different option varieties had corresponding pressure levels, support levels, weighted implied volatilities, and their changes [6][16][26][36]. Option Strategy Suggestions - Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + short put option combination strategy to gain option time - value returns and adjust positions dynamically. For example, for the 510050 option, use S_510050_2603P3000 and S_510050_2603C3200 [8][18][28][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, with short - term focus on end - of - month policy signals. Influenced by the Middle East conflict, the LPR remains unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [2] Summaries by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a 6.99 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 1.58% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with a 0.50% month - on - month increase and a 5.88% growth rate; manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a 0.30% month - on - month decrease and a 0.61% decline rate [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 98.93, with a 0.21 month - on - month increase and a 0.21% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8778, with a 0.010 month - on - month decrease and a 0.15% decline rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.63% growth rate; DR007 is 1.44, with a 0.01 month - on - month decrease and a 0.50% decline rate; R007 is 1.55, with a 0.01 month - on - month decrease and a 0.55% decline rate; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.52, with a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.33% growth rate; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00 month - on - month increase and a 0.33% growth rate [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures on the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation funds trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, and the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties [12][13][17] III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - Figures related to the money market are provided, including the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and the issuance of local government bonds [26][27][24] IV. Spread Overview - The report shows figures on the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread in different combinations such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][32][34] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract are presented [41][43] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract are shown [45][57] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract are provided [53][54] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract are presented [60][61]

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.73bp decrease, GC001 at 1.48 with a 7.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.54 with a 2.00bp decrease [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with a 0.23bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds closed at 1.48, 1.73, and 1.98 respectively, with decreases of 1.10bp, 0.60bp, and 0.35bp; 10 - year US Treasury bonds closed at 4.12 with a 3.00bp decrease [3] - The central bank conducted 395 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 52 billion yuan [3] - This week, 2776 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1500 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Tuesday [4] Group 2: Stock Index and Futures - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose 1.28%, 0.64%, 1.58%, and 1.78% respectively; their corresponding futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) also had varying increases [5][6] - Trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 36.2, 34.4, 23.7, and 30.5 respectively; their positions decreased by 6.3%, 4.7%, 4.1%, and 7.8% respectively [5] - The trading volume of the three - market (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing) stocks was 24170 billion yuan, a decrease of 2539 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with electronics, communication, and other sectors leading the gains, while oil, coal, and chemical sectors declined [6] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed varying degrees of premium or discount [8] Group 3: Export Data and Market Outlook - China's export volume from January to February was 20994.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.3%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 7.2% [7] - In February, the single - month export growth rate reached 36.1%, indicating the resilience of the supply chain after the Spring Festival [7] - Mechanical and electrical products were the main drivers of growth, with an export volume of 2.89 trillion yuan in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of 24.3% [7] - China's exports to the US contracted, while ASEAN and the EU became important supports for exports, accounting for over 30% in total [7] - With the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite, the stock index is expected to consolidate and resume an upward trend; long positions can be considered in the medium - to - long - term using the premium advantage of stock index futures [7]