行业 金融期货周报 日期 2026 年 2 月 6 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ |  股指 - 3 | - | | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、市场回顾 - 3 | - | | | 二、成交持仓分析 - 5 | - | | | 三、基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - 5 | - | | | 四、行业板块概况 - 8 | - | | | 五、估值比较 - 9 | - | | |  国债 - 10 | - | | | 一、本周市场回顾 - 10 | - | | | 二、市场分析 - 19 | - | | | 三、下周公开市场到期 ...

Core Insights - In January, the number of fines imposed on financial institutions increased significantly year-on-year, while the total amount of fines decreased [1][3] Group 1: Overview of Penalties - A total of 1,438 fines were issued to financial institutions in January, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.13%, with a total penalty amount of 29.3 million yuan, down 20.16% from the previous year [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau issued 1,253 fines, an increase of 83.19% year-on-year, with a total penalty amount of 21.9 million yuan, up 15.87% [3] - The People's Bank of China issued 113 fines, a decrease of 38.59% year-on-year, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued 64 fines, an increase of 18.52% [3] Group 2: Penalties by Financial Institution Type - Banks received 830 fines, an increase of 41.88% year-on-year, with a total penalty amount of 21.4 million yuan, down 25.95% [6] - The insurance sector faced 532 fines, a year-on-year increase of 84.08%, with a slight decrease in total penalty amounts [6] - Securities firms received 12 fines, and futures companies received 9 fines, while private equity firms faced 44 fines [6] Group 3: Major Penalties - Shanghai Riyi Equity Investment Fund Co., Ltd. was fined 14 million yuan for failing to operate investments as per contractual agreements [9] - The actual controller of Shanghai Riyi, Sun, received a fine of 11.9 million yuan for similar violations, including misleading investors about capital safety [9] - Zhejiang Min Tai Commercial Bank was fined 7.15 million yuan for serious violations of prudent management rules [9] Group 4: Compliance Trends - The number of fines related to inflated loan and deposit figures increased 7.5 times month-on-month, with 34 fines issued in January compared to only 4 in December [11] - Misleading sales and promotional practices resulted in 34 fines, doubling from the previous month, primarily affecting insurance companies and banks [12] Group 5: Penalty Rankings - In January, non-bank institutions, particularly insurance companies, dominated the list of penalties, with Shanghai Riyi Equity Investment Fund being the highest fined non-bank entity [17] - China Ping An Property Insurance and China People's Property Insurance ranked second and third in total penalty amounts [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures contract declined with reduced trading volume, breaking below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, reaching a one-month low with no sign of a stop in the decline [1][6]. - Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and the demand shows strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level, mainly due to the high pressure on social inventory, and the inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations and the inventory depletion speed after the Spring Festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Friday, the open interest of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract decreased by 10,036 lots, with a trading volume of 276,669 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,250 yuan, and the high was 3,270 yuan. The daily moving averages showed a short-term decline below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, closing at 3,251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan or 0.43% [1]. - Spot Price: The hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -1 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1103 million tons. This week's output was at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4]. - Demand: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 0.0587 million tons to 3.0554 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.0811 million tons. Mainly affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand from downstream manufacturing industries declined, but the overall level was still at a relatively high level in recent years, showing certain resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 0.0362 million tons to 3.592 million tons (the social inventory increased by 0.0212 million tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 0.015 million tons). The pressure was concentrated on social inventory, and the steel mill inventory was controllable. The steel mill inventory pressure was extremely low, and the social inventory increased significantly, reflecting the inventory backlog in the circulation link and the low willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish Factors: Steel mill复产 exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]. Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil futures contract declined with reduced trading volume today, breaking below the short-term 5-day, medium-term 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, reaching a one-month low with no sign of a stop in the decline. Fundamentally, the current supply is relatively stable, and the demand shows strong resilience despite a decline mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level, mainly due to the high pressure on social inventory, and the inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations and the inventory depletion speed after the Spring Festival [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and meal industry is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - For soymeal, although the market's consistent expectation of a bountiful harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, as well as weather issues in Argentina, it's unadvisable to be overly bearish. It is conservatively recommended to take partial basis at low points, and the futures market should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation [2]. - For oils, although the US 45Z policy strongly supports US soybean oil, its restrictions on raw material imports prevent the benefits from reaching the domestic market. The market is in a moderately bullish oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward momentum [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soymeal - As of January 29, 2026, in the 2025/26 season, the US soybean exports to China (Mainland) were 432.4 million tons, lower than 1812 million tons in the same period last year. The US shipped 80.9 million tons of soybeans to China that week. The unshipped but sold soybeans to China in the 2025/26 season so far are 556.3 million tons, compared with 230.5 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - The drought problem in Argentina is worsening, especially in the central and southern regions. A cold front brought some showers, and the weather pattern in February seems more active, which may help depending on rainfall. Otherwise, the crop conditions will continue to deteriorate, and late - sown crops will face more pressure [2]. - Institutions significantly raised the production estimate of Brazil in the 2025/26 season, and the harvest progress is better than last year. Although there are still local weather uncertainties, the market's consistent expectation of a bountiful harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened [2]. Oils - Indonesia plans to set the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline at 10% in 2028 to reduce gasoline imports and improve energy self - sufficiency. However, due to limited ethanol supply, the plan to increase the mandatory blending has been postponed [3]. - In the 2025/26 season, India's sunflower oil imports will drop by about 10% to a four - year low as the price premium of sunflower oil over other edible oils grows, prompting buyers to switch to cheaper alternatives like palm oil, which may help reduce inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia and support Malaysian palm oil futures prices [3].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.2.6」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体下跌，科创50及创业板指跌幅较大，均跌超3%。四期指亦 集体走弱，此前涨幅明显的IC下行最大。本周，受到美国方面新任美联储主席提名带来的流 动性收紧预期冲击；以及人工智能产业过度投入而回报有限的担忧，使得美股科技股下行带 来的外溢效应影响，A股走势整体偏弱。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周显著回落。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -1.56 | -0.63 | 4637.6 | | | IH2603 | -1.23 | -0.80 | 3036.2 | | | IC2603 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw increased tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with rubber prices showing wide - range fluctuations. The trading atmosphere was generally subdued, and actual transactions were light [9]. - Currently, the domestic main production areas of natural rubber are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the off - season, with total supply shrinking. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has been increasing, and the demand from downstream tire companies has weakened. The short - term capacity utilization rate of tire companies may decline further [9]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15850 - 16600 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12850 - 13500 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - to - Week Summary** - Market Review: The natural rubber market had wide - range fluctuations. Import traders mainly focused on position rotation and replacement, with a small amount of arbitrage position increase. Factory purchasing was lackluster. Domestic spot prices adjusted with the market, and downstream purchasing willingness was weak, mainly for刚需 replenishment [9]. - Market Outlook: Supply is shrinking as domestic production areas are in the off - season and overseas is transitioning. Qingdao Port's inventory is increasing due to pre - holiday concentrated arrivals and weak downstream purchasing. Tire companies' capacity utilization rates are declining, and more companies will enter the Spring Festival holiday soon [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15850 - 16600, and the nr2604 contract between 12850 - 13500 in the short term [9]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Futures Market** - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 1.71% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price closed down 1.73% week - on - week [12]. - Position Analysis: No detailed analysis results are provided in the text, only the topics of position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber are mentioned [15][17]. - Inter - period Spread: As of February 6, the spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 was 105, and the spread between 20 - rubber 3 - 4 was - 45 [24]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of February 5, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 111,570 tons, an increase of 640 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,399 tons, a decrease of 3,226 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of February 5, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - Basis: As of February 5, the 20 - rubber basis was 401 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 995 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton from last week [41]. **3.3 Industry Situation** - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 6, the field latex price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 59.3 (+1) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 54 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber theoretical processing profit was 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [45]. - Domestic: The Yunnan and Hainan production areas in China are in the off - season [48]. - **Import** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [54]. - **Inventory** - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23%. Bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82% [57]. - **Downstream** - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [60]. - Tire Exports: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, China's cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [63]. - Domestic Demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025, and a significant increase of about 39% year - on - year compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [66]. **3.4 Option Market Analysis** No information provided.

瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.02.06」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1750-1800区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂涨至1750-1800元/吨， 均价环比上涨15元/吨。本周期尿素工厂继续春节前的订单预收，期货价格的上涨，市场情绪的带 动，让尿素工厂报价并未出现明显松动，收单依然顺利。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，4-5家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增幅扩大。近期农业需求持 续推进，节前终端及贸易企业适当增加储备需求，尿素工厂订单量明显增加。工业领域维持刚需 采购，复合肥本周产能利用率环比提升，部分地区虽环保压力仍存，但为保障供应，规模企业装 置开工率稳中有升，春节临近，预计复合肥产能利用率或将下降。本周国内尿素企业库存小幅下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, a series of macro - events led by the Wash nomination triggered a significant shock in the market, causing the global precious metals market to experience an accelerated correction. In the short - term, market volatility may remain high, but geopolitical uncertainties provide bottom support for gold prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as market sentiment stabilizes, the precious metals market may return to a pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. With the cooling of inflation and employment data, there may be a mid - term easing expectation, and the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds, but it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term high volatility [6]. - The actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the new Fed Chairman may adjust the interest - rate path and implement moderate interest - rate cuts. The support of medium - term easing expectations makes the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still valid, but short - term market fluctuations are intense, so it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the support levels of London gold at $4400 - 4500 per ounce and London silver at $55 - 60 per ounce [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Macro - events led to market shocks and a correction in the precious metals market. The cooling of the US employment market increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Profit - taking and market liquidity tightening increased the selling pressure on precious metals. The cancellation of the Iran - US negotiation provided bottom support for gold prices. The increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures may intensify short - term market fluctuations [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may return to a macro - and fundamental - driven pricing framework. With the support of medium - term easing expectations, the logic of bottom - fishing still holds, but short - term high volatility suggests a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the support levels of London gold and silver [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the net position of gold ETFs decreased slightly, while that of silver ETFs increased [10]. - **COMEX Net Long Positions**: As of January 27, 2025, the net long positions of both COMEX gold and silver decreased [15][20]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened week - on - week [21][25]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: This week, the domestic - foreign price difference of gold and silver continued to converge [26][28]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inventory of silver continued to decline significantly [29][31]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio continued to rebound [32][35]. 3. Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of December 2025, the import of silver and silver ore increased significantly. The output of semiconductor integrated circuits increased due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry [37][41][43]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. The total global gold demand reached a record high [45][47]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand decreased slightly, narrowing the market shortage [48][50]. 4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index strengthened, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose by nearly 2%. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury bond yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price increased significantly. Central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [51][56][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2180 - 2300 in the short term [7] - This week, the port methanol market mainly declined, and the inland methanol price continued to fall. The market sentiment was weak due to pre - holiday inventory clearance and a weak macro - environment. As the de - stocking nears the end, market trading has become light, and downstream buyers are on the sidelines [8] - Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production, leading to an overall increase in production. Before the long holiday, upstream factories continue to clear inventory/pre - sell, and downstream buyers stock up steadily before the festival. Inland enterprise inventories continue to decline. Port inventories in the Yangtze River Delta decreased this week, while those in South China increased. In the short term, the arrival of foreign vessels is expected to increase, and port inventories may accumulate [8] - This week, the operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins increased. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, its load increased, and the Shandong Hengtong and Qinghai Salt Lake plants restarted during the week. In the short term, as the loads of previously restarted olefin plants gradually increase, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2180 - 2300 range in the short term [7] - Market review: This week, the port methanol market declined. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2180 - 2300 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2200 - 2280 yuan/ton. Inland prices continued to fall, with the price in Erdos in the north line fluctuating between 1785 - 1798 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying between 2145 - 2160 yuan/ton. Enterprises focused on inventory clearance before the holiday, and the market sentiment was weak [8] - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production is increasing. Inland inventories are decreasing, while port inventories may accumulate. The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 3.28% [12] - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 6, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 29 [16] - Position analysis: As of February 6, there were 7082 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 71 from last week [24] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic prices: As of February 5, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1797.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 407.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77.5 yuan/ton from last week [30] - Foreign prices: As of February 5, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 262 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 61 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton from last week [36] - Basis: As of February 5, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [40] 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of February 4, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of February 5, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.52 US dollars per million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.35 US dollars per million British thermal units from last week [44] 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and operating rate: As of February 4, China's methanol production was 2,061,085 tons, an increase of 23,350 tons from last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 92.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15% [47] - Inventory: As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 368,300 tons, a decrease of 55,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 13.16%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 287,100 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.05%. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 1.411 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 64,800 tons, and that in South China increased by 3,700 tons [51] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of February 5, the methanol import profit was - 17.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [56] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Operating rate: As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 83.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.86%. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, its load increased, and the Shandong Hengtong and Qinghai Salt Lake plants restarted during the week, leading to an increase in the operating rate [59] - Profit: As of February 6, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week [62]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly due to the continuous rebound of the US dollar index, the shift in macro - expectations driven by the nomination event of Fed's Waller, and the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. The platinum main 2606 contract fell 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram, and the palladium main 2606 contract fell 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data such as ISM services PMI and ADP employment data were slightly below market expectations, and the domestic lay - off level remained at a historical high. The labor market's cooling trend continued, strengthening the mid - term interest rate cut expectation. Although the Waller nomination event caused a shock in the precious metals market and was interpreted as hawkish, there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut this year, which may potentially support the precious metals market in the medium term [7]. - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the platinum loading intensity. Although global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [7]. - In the short term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the price fluctuations of gold and silver. The support level range for London platinum is 1,800 - 1,900 US dollars/ounce, and for London palladium is 1,500 - 1,600 US dollars/ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly this week, with the platinum main 2606 contract down 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram and the palladium main 2606 contract down 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data supported mid - term interest rate cut expectations, and although the Waller event was hawkish - interpreted, there is still an interest rate cut expectation this year, potentially supporting the precious metals market [7]. - EU policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand for platinum [7]. - Short - term high - volatility in the precious metals market may continue, and platinum and palladium will likely show a wide - range shock pattern [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The precious metals market had a deep correction this week. Platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly. As of February 6, 2026, the palladium main 2606 contract was at 410.50 yuan/gram, down 11.54% for the week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 506 yuan/gram, down 19.75% for the week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 27, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 22,026 contracts, a 1.12% increase, and that of palladium was - 2,840 contracts, a 2.82% decrease [13][16]. - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened this week. As of February 5, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was - 56 US dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 124 US dollars/ounce [17][21]. - NYMEX platinum inventory increased slightly, and palladium inventory decreased significantly. As of February 5, 2026, platinum inventory was 662,618.73 ounces, a 1.14% increase, and palladium inventory was 190,873.50 ounces, a 14.80% decrease [22][25]. - Platinum and gold prices showed high synchronicity, with more significant platinum price fluctuations, and the gold - platinum ratio rebounded this week [26]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [31]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally, and the total demand for global platinum and palladium showed a mild slowdown [36][40]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium declined [45]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium converged [49]. 3.4 Macro and Options (Macro Data) - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded [53].