证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 哪些领域"反内卷"更值得期待？——2026 年牛市展望系列 3 策略专题研究 证券分析师：吴信坤 021-61761046 wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn S0980525120001 核心结论：①本次反内卷较 16 年供改背景更复杂，需求端内弱外强，供给 端受制造实力与地方非经济决策驱动。②26 年反内卷仍是经济工作重点，参 考 25 年及 16 年行情经验，反内卷行情或仍有可观上行空间。③政策干预角 度看，关注企业配合度高、地方、落地动力强的行业（如钢铁、油服工程、 水泥等）。④从行业自身周期看，关注供需两旺的景气行业（贵金属、化学 原料等），以及供需格局优化领域（养殖业、能源金属等）。 本轮反内卷背景更复杂，行情节奏相对波折。相较于供改，本轮反内卷再供 需背景上更复杂：需求端看，不同于供给侧结构性改革时期，棚改货币化等 强政策刺激快速拉动总需求，本次内需不足的特征更为突出，但外需支撑或 相对有韧性；供给端看，本次供给扩张与我国制造业实力提升有关，地方政 府"非经济"决策进一步加剧产能过剩。在此背景下，从行业结构看，本轮 呈"涉及面广、新兴行业多、民 ...

每经记者｜赵云 每经编辑｜叶峰 1月29日，三大指数涨跌不一，沪指窄幅震荡，上证50指数涨超1%，创业板指冲高回落，科创50指数跌 超3%。 板块来看，白酒板块爆发，有色金属板块反复活跃，油气股延续强势，房地产板块震荡反弹。下跌方 面，芯片产业链、CPO等跌幅居前。 全市场超3500只个股下跌。沪深两市成交额3.23万亿元，较上一个交易日放量2646亿。 本周已走过4个交易日，A股市场上演着"变与不变"。 不变的，有两件事： （1）大资金压盘仍在，只是每天的力度与频次有区别； （2）随着商品持续涨价，贵金属板块总在领涨。 变化的，虽然纷繁复杂，但也可以总结为两件事： （1）贵金属之外的板块轮动很快，前一天领涨，次日大概率回调； （2）市场的避险意识在增强。四天下来，核心资产逐渐受到更多重视，而小微盘股出现滞涨和回调。 比如今天早盘一度看似回暖的AI应用、商业航天，午后纷纷回落。 "最惨"的白酒，终于大涨 在"飞天茅台涨价"消息影响下，今天白酒板块迎来久违的爆量大涨，收盘涨幅达到9.68%，"一阳穿多 线"。 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.30 points, indicating a positive market sentiment; however, over 3600 stocks declined while only about 1200 stocks rose, reflecting a "divergent" market trend [1][3] - The market is characterized by extreme polarization, where selecting the right sectors can lead to a bull market, while the wrong choices can result in a bear market [4][6] Sector Performance - The mining sector saw significant inflows, with precious metals like gold and silver experiencing substantial gains; gold prices recently surpassed $5200 per ounce, reaching a historical high [3][4] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector rose nearly 6%, while precious metals surged over 10%, with companies like China Gold hitting their fourth consecutive trading limit [3][4] - In contrast, technology stocks faced severe differentiation, with many high-flying stocks in AI and space photovoltaics seeing capital flight, while only a few semiconductor stocks remained resilient [3][9] Capital Flow Analysis - On January 28, major institutional funds experienced a net outflow of 35.475 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive day of outflows, primarily from the electric equipment, pharmaceutical, and electronics sectors [6] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metal sector attracted 10.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investment focus [6] - Northbound capital, often referred to as "smart money," recorded a net inflow of 12.5 billion yuan, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment between domestic and foreign investors [6] Market Sensitivity and Future Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to influence market dynamics, with investors closely monitoring any hints regarding future interest rate adjustments [6][7] - The first hour of trading post-meeting will be critical, with attention on trading volume and northbound capital movements as indicators of market sentiment [7] - The short-term support level for the Shanghai Composite Index is around 4130 points, with 4170 points serving as a psychological barrier; failure to maintain these levels could lead to further declines [7] Investment Strategy - In the current chaotic market environment, a cautious approach is recommended, avoiding impulsive trading based on market fluctuations [9] - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, reducing exposure during rebounds and maintaining a level of patience to wait for more favorable opportunities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market exhibited mixed performance on January 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices declined by 0.3% and 0.57% respectively [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices closed at 14300.08 points and 3304.51 points respectively [1] - A total of 1803 stocks in the A-share market gained, with 86 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 3566 stocks declined, including 35 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - The liquor sector saw significant gains in the afternoon, with stocks such as Wuliangye (000858), Jinzhidao (600199), Huangtai Distillery (000995), and Yingjia Gongjiu (603198) reaching their daily limit up [1] - Kweichow Moutai (600519) experienced a substantial price increase, reaching 1400 CNY per share during trading and ultimately closing up by 8.61% at 1437.72 CNY per share [1] - Other sectors that performed well included precious metals and mining, while high-bandwidth memory, MLCC, and SMIC-related sectors faced declines [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Exchange was approximately 14857.95 billion CNY, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange recorded about 17442.13 billion CNY, leading to a combined trading volume of around 3.23 trillion CNY [1]

北京商报讯（记者 马换换 李佳雪）1月29日，A股三大股指开盘涨跌不一，全天保持震荡态势。截至收 盘，上证综指收涨0.16%，报4157.98点，深证成指、创业板指分别收跌0.3%、0.57%，分别报14300.08 点、3304.51点。 成交金额方面，沪市成交金额14857.95亿元，深市成交金额17442.13亿元，两市合计成交金额约3.23万 亿元。 盘面上，白酒板块午后爆发，五粮液、金种子酒、皇台酒业、迎驾贡酒等多股涨停，其中，贵州茅台盘 中股价大涨，重回1400元/股，最终收涨8.61%，报1437.72元/股；贵金属、采掘行业等板块涨幅居前。 此外，高带宽内存、MLCC、中芯概念等板块跌幅居前。 个股方面，A股1803股飘红，其中86股涨停。此外，3566股飘绿，其中35股跌停。 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 500 points, closing down 1.02%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.81% [1][3] - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.31% [3] - The market experienced a significant shift in capital, with semiconductor, gold, silver, and Chinese concept stocks emerging as major winners [1] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks, particularly Micron Technology, saw gains exceeding 5% due to favorable news regarding price increases for memory chips supplied to Apple [4][5] - Traditional sectors, including silver mining and healthcare, faced declines, with major companies like UnitedHealth and HCA Healthcare seeing stock drops of nearly 17% and over 16%, respectively [3] - The precious metals market saw gold prices rise to $5065 per ounce, while silver prices increased by over 2% [5] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks performed well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index showing significant gains [7] - Individual stocks like Huya surged over 20%, driven by the success of a new game, while other companies like Su Xuan Tang Pharmaceuticals and Kingsoft Cloud also saw substantial increases [7] Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. dollar index fell to 96.37, marking a five-month low, which made dollar-denominated assets cheaper for foreign investors [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting, marking a pause after three consecutive rate cuts [8] - Goldman Sachs predicts the next rate cut could occur in June, with a potential reduction of 25 basis points [9]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant market activity on January 29, with 86 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 35 stocks hitting the limit down [1] - The liquor sector was notably active, with stocks like Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu reaching the limit up [1] - Precious metals showed strength, with Silver Nonferrous achieving 8 consecutive limit ups, Zhaojin Gold reaching 7 limit ups in 9 days, and Western Gold achieving 4 limit ups in 7 days [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector also saw gains, with stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Guyue Longshan hitting the limit up [1] - Among the continuous limit up stocks, Tiandi Online achieved 5 limit ups in 9 days, and Intercontinental Oil and Yu Guang Jin Lead both reached 5 limit ups [1] - Conversely, *ST Aowei faced a continuous decline with 15 consecutive limit downs, while *ST Wan Fang and *ST Dongjing experienced 13 and 3 consecutive limit downs, respectively [1]

Market Overview - The market showed significant divergence today, with traditional blue-chip sectors like liquor and real estate surging, leading to a substantial rise in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, while technology sectors such as semiconductors and chips weakened, resulting in notable declines in the STAR Market and ChiNext Index [1] - The total market turnover reached 3.2 trillion yuan, an increase of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with more than 3,500 stocks declining [1] Key Signals - Three major changes in the market were noted: 1. The simultaneous rise of real estate and liquor stocks indicates potential structural volatility as the market rotates towards these rebound assets [1] 2. The recent surge in commodities, including gold, reflects liquidity trends, while cryptocurrencies have remained relatively subdued, suggesting inflation expectations may significantly impact AI and computing power [1] 3. The unexpected performance of government bonds, particularly the strong showing of 30-year treasury futures, indicates a complex narrative in the market, suggesting that the rotation is not strictly binary [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly liquor and retail, saw a significant afternoon rally, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 8% and several stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - Precious metals and oil and gas stocks experienced volatility but ultimately rallied, with China Gold achieving five consecutive limit-ups and Hunan Gold four consecutive limit-ups [1] - AI application concepts surged, with multiple stocks like Sai Group and Tiandi Online hitting the daily limit [1] - The banking sector also saw gains, with Qingdao Bank hitting the daily limit, while semiconductor, military, and automotive sectors faced the largest declines [1] Fund Flow - Major funds focused on sectors such as advertising, software development, and liquor, with significant net inflows into stocks like BlueFocus, Kweichow Moutai, and iFlytek [3] Future Outlook - Short-term market trends indicate a continued oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to maintain an upward trajectory, although space for growth before the Spring Festival appears limited [2][8] - The market sentiment is supported by a weakening US dollar and ongoing monetary easing, which may provide a conducive environment for further capital inflow [7] - The upcoming earnings reports from A-share companies and North American tech giants are anticipated to have a more pronounced impact on market structure [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market closed at 4151.24 points, with three major indices in the green, but over 3600 stocks fell, indicating a disconnect between index performance and individual stock performance [1][3] - The resource and cyclical sectors dominated the market, with significant gains in precious metals, jewelry, non-ferrous metals, coal, and oil and gas extraction, driven by rising global commodity prices [3][4] - The price of gold surged past $5200 per ounce, up over $400 from early January, prompting a bullish sentiment in related A-share stocks [3][11] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector saw a brief rally, attributed to increased demand for storage chips driven by AI hardware needs, although the overall tech sector remained weak [6][11] - Mid-cap stocks, particularly those in the CSI 500 index, showed stronger performance compared to large-cap stocks, indicating a shift in investor preference [7][11] - The market is experiencing a structural adjustment, with record trading volumes in ETFs, suggesting a significant reallocation of funds among different sectors [6][11] Group 3 - The market is characterized by a widening gap between high-performing large-cap stocks and underperforming small-cap stocks, with many previously popular speculative stocks continuing to decline [4][12] - Investor sentiment is polarized, with those holding resource stocks celebrating gains while others express frustration over stagnant portfolios [12]

来源：股市直击 截至发稿，沪指报4148.83点，跌0.06%，深成指报14273.25点，跌0.49%，创指报3303.34点，跌0.61%。 盘面上，油气开采及服务、白酒、贵金属板块涨幅居前；电子化学品、半导体板块跌幅居前。 1月29日消息，指数午后震荡走弱，科创50跌超2%。板块方面，保险板块震荡走强，新华保险创历史新 高；白酒板块走高，酒鬼酒、金徽酒涨停；午后油气股再度拉升，准油股份、中曼石油等多股涨停；贵 金属板块震荡，晓程科技领涨；下跌方面，CPO等算力硬件股震荡走低，奕东电子跌超9%；电网设备 持续下挫，广信科技领跌。总体来看，两市个股跌多涨少，下跌个股超3700只。 ...