高盛关键修正2026年铜价预测至11,400美元/吨，核心逻辑在于美国关税"时间差"引发市场结构性割裂——全球铜市从统一市场分裂为"美国囤货市 场"与"非美短缺市场"。 据追风交易台，12月16日，高盛在最新报告中指出，美国针对精炼铜的关税不太可能在2026年上半年立即实施（原基本情景），而是会推迟到 2027年。这种推迟引发了一个关键的市场结构变化：美国将继续通过溢价囤积铜，导致"非美国市场"的铜供应出现比预期更严重的短缺。 预测调整：非美市场的库存"黑洞"不仅在持续，还在扩大 高盛明确指出，LME铜价在12月12日创下了11,952美元的历史新高，年初至今涨幅达33%。 基于新的关税时间表假设，高盛调整了价格模型： 高盛预计，2026年非美市场的铜库存将减少约45万吨，这将允许美国市场在同一年累库75万吨。这种极度的不平衡是支撑高盛上调铜价的核心算 术基础。 全球供需：看似过剩，实则短缺 关税博弈：推迟实施 = 美国继续"吸虹"全球铜资源 高盛大幅调整了对美国关税政策落地的概率预测，这是本次研报的"胜负手"： 价格支撑逻辑改变： 铜价的定价权正日益转移到"非美市场的供需平衡"上。仅仅看全球总库存已不足以判 ...

Notion的年度经常性收入已突破6亿美元大关，其中50%来自人工智能产品。这一里程碑凸显了该公司 从传统生产力工具向AI驱动平台的成功转型。 该公司的AI产品线包括企业搜索、能够在Notion中独立工作超过20分钟的"知识工作代理"，以及AI笔记 工具。这些产品正在重新定义办公软件的使用方式。 拥有1000名员工的Notion目前80%的客户来自美国以外地区，客户包括OpenAI和Cursor等知名科技公 司。 生产力软件公司Notion正以110亿美元估值启动员工股份出售，该公司年度经常性收入（ARR）已突破6 亿美元，其中一半来自AI产品，业务增长强劲。 据福布斯报道，Notion于周一通知员工可以按110亿美元估值出售部分股份。红杉资本、Index Ventures 和新加坡政府投资公司GIC将购买这些股份，交易规模预计约3亿美元。 这轮股份出售反映了Notion在AI驱动下的快速增长。知情人士透露，该公司目前现金流为正，正在考虑 在IPO前进行多轮连续融资。 相比之下，Notion在2022年的上一次员工股份出售估值为100亿美元，与其2021年C轮融资估值持平。彭 博此前报道称，Notion曾考虑 ...

Core Insights - A severe storm has caused a significant market disruption in the AI infrastructure sector, leading to a loss of $33 billion in market value for CoreWeave and over 17% declines for Broadcom and Oracle, indicating growing concerns about an AI bubble [1][8] - The crisis originated from construction delays at a CoreWeave data center in Denton, Texas, which was set to provide 260 megawatts of computing power for OpenAI but has been delayed by approximately 60 days due to adverse weather conditions [1][2] Company-Specific Issues - CoreWeave's CEO, Michael Intrator, made contradictory statements during an earnings call, initially downplaying the impact of the delay but later acknowledging broader issues affecting multiple data center suppliers, which heightened investor anxiety [4][5] - The company's business model relies heavily on high-interest debt to acquire advanced AI chips from NVIDIA, making it vulnerable to construction delays and financial instability [3][5] Financial Performance and Debt Concerns - CoreWeave reported a revenue increase of nearly 100% to approximately $1.4 billion in the last quarter, yet it remains unprofitable, with a loss of $110 million, raising concerns about its ability to generate future profits [5][6] - The company recently completed a $2.25 billion convertible bond issuance, which, while having a lower interest rate than typical financing, poses risks of shareholder dilution and declining stock prices [6] Industry-Wide Implications - The turmoil at CoreWeave reflects broader issues within the AI sector, as rapid growth raises questions about the timing and viability of significant capital investments [7][8] - Concerns over construction delays and supply chain bottlenecks are affecting the entire industry, with major players like Oracle and Broadcom experiencing double-digit percentage declines in stock prices due to revised spending expectations [8]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a potential successor to the Federal Reserve Chair, criticizes the current Fed's policies and suggests significant reforms to address inflation, which he claims is a result of poor policy choices rather than external factors [1][5][20]. Group 1: Warsh's Critique of the Federal Reserve - Warsh argues that inflation is a choice made by the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that the central bank has the power to control price levels [5][20]. - He criticizes the Fed's complacency during the "Great Moderation" period, suggesting that the failure to reduce the balance sheet led to the current inflation crisis [1][5]. - Warsh believes that the Fed has deviated from its core mission of maintaining price stability and has engaged in excessive monetary interventions [5][20]. Group 2: Proposed Reforms - Warsh advocates for a "restoration" of the Federal Reserve rather than a complete overhaul, suggesting that the existing framework should be preserved while correcting past mistakes [2][5]. - He proposes reducing the Fed's balance sheet, which currently stands at $7 trillion, to create room for lower nominal interest rates [2][5]. - Warsh emphasizes the need for a clear division of responsibilities between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, arguing that both should focus on their respective roles without overstepping boundaries [2][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite his criticisms, Warsh expresses optimism about the U.S. economy, predicting a productivity boom driven by AI, similar to the economic growth seen during the Reagan era [2][5]. - He believes that rational policy adjustments can lead to significant resilience in the U.S. economy [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analyzes that if Kevin Warsh is elected as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, his policy stance may present a unique combination of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" [1][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Candidacy and Market Reactions - President Trump has indicated that Kevin Warsh is a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, alongside Kevin Hassett, which has led to a significant drop in Hassett's odds in prediction markets [1]. - As of the latest data, prediction markets suggest that Warsh has a higher probability of becoming the next Fed Chair compared to Hassett [1]. Group 2: Warsh's Policy Proposals - Deutsche Bank's report highlights that if Warsh is elected, he would support interest rate cuts while also advocating for a reduction in the balance sheet [3]. - The feasibility of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" hinges on regulatory reforms that lower banks' reserve requirements, which is currently uncertain [3]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Criticism of Fed Policies - Warsh, a lawyer by training, has extensive experience in both public and private sectors, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [4]. - He has been a strong critic of the Fed's aggressive balance sheet operations over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [5][6]. - Warsh has expressed concerns that continued QE could lead to inflation and financial stability risks, suggesting that the Fed's actions may distort market signals [6][7]. Group 4: Warsh's Views on Forward Guidance and Monetary Policy - Warsh has criticized the Fed for over-relying on data and lacking forward guidance, stating that the forward guidance tool introduced during the financial crisis has little effect in normal times [9]. - He questions the Fed's understanding of monetary policy, suggesting misconceptions about the relationship between monetary policy and money supply [9][10]. Group 5: Implications for Future Fed Leadership - Deutsche Bank emphasizes that regardless of who is chosen as the next Fed Chair, the market will likely test the new leader's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [13]. - The report expresses skepticism about significant policy changes following the leadership transition in June, especially given the divided committee dynamics [13].

A股低开，创业板指跌超1%，沪指跌0.69%，深成指跌0.85%。电商、光刻机、核聚变、超导、CPO、存储器概念股纷纷回调，智能驾驶题材活 跃。 港股指数继续低开，恒指跌0.32%，恒生科技指数跌0.56%。大型科技股继续昨日跌势，百度、小米、阿里巴巴均跌超1%；连续上涨的黄金股集体 走低，汽车股、建材水泥股、消费电子概念股普跌。另外，港口及海运股上涨明显，海丰国际大涨近15%，重卡股中国重汽涨4.4%。 消息面，隔夜美股三大指数收跌，中概指数大跌2.17%。 国债期货开盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.07%报111.520元，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报107.875元，5年期主力合约涨0.06%报105.825元，2年期 主力合约涨0.01%报102.454元。 9:45 国内商品期市开盘多数下跌，沪镍跌2.29%，不锈钢跌1.91%，低硫燃料油跌1.67%，玻璃跌1.63%，红枣跌1.21%，集运指数(欧线)涨2.42%，钯金 涨1.64%。 创业板指跌超1%，沪指跌0.69%，深成指跌0.85%，商业航天、光伏风电、影视院线等方向跌幅居前，沪深京三市下跌个股近4400只。 | 代码 | 名称 | ...

诉讼称，BBC的编辑手法使观众误以为特朗普在讲话中明确煽动支持者攻击国会大厦。特朗普方面认 为，这种编辑构成了"对选举结果进行干预和影响的无耻尝试"。 BBC主席Samir Shah此前已就这一"判断错误"公开道歉。该争议还导致BBC总干事和新闻主管双双辞 职，凸显了事件对该机构内部管理层的冲击。 BBC已道歉并承诺停播 据新华社周二报道，美国媒体15日报道称，美国总统特朗普起诉英国广播公司（BBC），索赔50亿美 元。这起诉讼指控BBC在2024年大选前一周播出的全景节目纪录片对特朗普进行了"虚假、诽谤性和恶 意"的描述。 诉讼核心围绕BBC对特朗普2021年1月6日国会山事件前讲话的编辑处理。特朗普方面指控BBC通过欺 骗性剪辑，使其讲话看起来像是明确煽动支持者攻击美国国会大厦，构成对选举结果的恶意干预。 BBC已就此编辑"判断错误"公开道歉，该机构总干事和新闻主管均已辞职。BBC在11月13日向特朗普道 歉，并承诺不再播出该纪录片。 这起诉讼是特朗普针对媒体机构发起的最新一轮法律行动，凸显了其与主流媒体关系的持续紧张。 纪录片编辑争议成焦点 根据诉状，BBC制作的名为"特朗普：第二次机会"的全景节目纪录 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the completion of a share buyback plan by the chairman of Mindray Medical, Li Xiting, reflecting confidence in the company's intrinsic value and growth prospects [1] Group 1: Buyback Plan Details - Buyback Entity: Li Xiting, one of the actual controllers and chairman of the company [1] - Total Investment: 200 million RMB (including transaction fees) [1] - Shares Acquired: 1,005,381 shares, representing 0.08% of the company's total equity [1] - Buyback Period: From November 27, 2025, to December 12, 2025, completed ahead of the originally planned six-month period [1] - Method of Acquisition: Centralized bidding transaction [1] - Source of Funds: Li Xiting's personal funds [1] Group 2: Shareholding Structure Changes - Shareholding Before Buyback: Li Xiting and his concerted actor Xu Hang collectively controlled 51.47% of the shares [1] - Shareholding After Buyback: They now control 51.55% of the shares, with no change in the status of the actual controller [1] Group 3: Important Arrangements - Lock-up Period: No reduction in holdings for six months following the completion of the buyback [1] - Purpose of Buyback: Based on recognition of the company's intrinsic value and confidence in its development prospects [1] - Compliance: The buyback complies with relevant regulatory requirements and has received confirmation from a law firm [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ford Motor Company announced a significant strategic shift, recognizing the inability to achieve its electric vehicle ambitions in the short term, leading to a pre-tax charge of approximately $19.5 billion primarily related to its electric vehicle business [1] Group 1: Strategic Shift - Ford plans to pivot from a full electric vehicle strategy to focus on hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles, while also strengthening its traditional gasoline vehicle lineup [1][2] - The company will discontinue the production of the all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck and other electric models, retaining only a low-cost electric pickup planned for 2027 [2] - Ford's Model e electric vehicle division is projected to incur a loss of $5.1 billion in 2024 and $3.6 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a goal to achieve profitability in the electric vehicle business by 2029 [2] Group 2: Financial Implications - The $19.5 billion charge includes $12.5 billion to be recorded in Q4 for streamlining electric vehicle assets, with $3 billion allocated for terminating a battery joint venture with SK Group [2] - Despite the substantial charge, Ford raised its full-year financial guidance, expecting adjusted EBIT of $7 billion, up from a previous forecast of $6 billion to $6.5 billion [6] Group 3: Market and Regulatory Environment - The shift reflects pressures from changing regulatory environments and weak market demand, with consumers expressing concerns over high prices, range anxiety, and insufficient charging infrastructure [1][2] - The company acknowledges a clearer understanding of the U.S. market, opting to reallocate capital from electric vehicles to more profitable models [1] Group 4: Industry Trends - Ford's strategic change signals a broader trend in the U.S. automotive industry, with General Motors also abandoning its plan for a fully electric lineup by 2035 and facing significant write-downs on electric vehicle assets [4] - Other automakers are repurposing electric vehicle battery factories for fixed energy storage solutions, indicating a shift in focus towards more profitable markets [5]

芯片巨头博通在上周发布财报后，遭遇了市场的猛烈连续抛售。 而这场抛售由两记重拳引燃。华尔街见闻写道，首先，"谷歌链"核心标的——博通在上周公布了财报，尽管 销售额创下历史新高，但其对AI业务的收入预测未能满足华尔街的极高期望。 此次股价重挫对投资者的直接影响是巨大的财富蒸发。在短短三个交易日内，博通的市值抹去了超过3000亿 美元，这一损失的规模约等于其竞争对手AMD的总市值。 市值的急剧缩水也改变了美国科技巨头的市值排名。由于博通股价的持续承压，Meta的市值已重新超越博 通，使这家社交媒体巨头重返美国市值第六大公司的位置。 这一变化虽然部分源于Meta股价的温和上涨，但主要还是由博通自身的急剧下跌所驱动。对于市场来说，这 种排名的变化是一个不容忽视的信号，反映了资本在科技巨头之间的快速流动和重新评估。 近日，在AI担忧愈发激烈之下，随着博通股价三天大跌超17%，"OpenAI链"和"谷歌链"都遭受了重创。 这轮抛售一直延续至本周。博通股价本周一再度下跌5.6%，使其连续三个交易日的累计跌幅达到17.7%。道 琼斯市场数据显示，这一表现是该公司自2020年3月18日以来最差的三日跌幅。 当前，美股盘后博通的 ...