Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's trendy toy business is increasingly connecting with the luxury goods sector, as evidenced by the appointment of LVMH's Greater China President, Wu Yue, to its board of directors [2][5]. Group 1: Strategic Developments - Wu Yue's appointment may indicate Pop Mart's further exploration into the core circle of international fashion trends [3]. - The company has been compared to luxury brands like Hermes due to its high gross margin of nearly 70% since its performance explosion [3]. - Pop Mart's collaboration with LVMH and its luxury brands could signify a shift from mere marketing to deeper strategic interactions [13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for scarcity is a common pursuit in both the trendy toy and luxury goods industries, where exclusivity enhances social status and identity recognition [6]. - Pop Mart's products, particularly in the secondary market, have seen a decline in premium pricing, indicating a cooling of consumer interest compared to previous "one toy hard to find" scenarios [4][11]. - The company aims to balance IP value, scarcity, and revenue scalability, which remains a long-term challenge [15]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - In the first half of 2025, the MEGA series generated nearly 1 billion yuan, accounting for 7% of total revenue [10]. - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped over 45% since its peak, with a market capitalization loss exceeding 200 billion HKD, reflecting investor concerns over declining resale prices and market sentiment [16][17]. - The company is facing a "availability paradox," where increased production capacity is transforming its core IP LABUBU from a scarce trend symbol to a mass-market product, potentially signaling a decline in popularity [19]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Pop Mart is expanding its international presence, with plans to open 200 new stores by the end of the year, maintaining a pace of approximately three new stores per week [14]. - The company is also diversifying its IP portfolio, with notable growth from new IPs like CRYBABY and Star People, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue [14]. - Collaborations with major brands and the development of immersive experiences are part of Pop Mart's strategy to deepen emotional connections with consumers [27].

迪士尼同意向OpenAI投资10亿美元，并将米老鼠和灰姑娘等标志性角色授权给OpenAI的短视频人工智 能平台Sora。 12月11日，据彭博社报道，根据协议条款，Sora将能够生成由用户发起的短视频，供粉丝观看和分享。 这些视频将使用来自迪士尼、漫威、皮克斯和星球大战的200多个动画角色，该协议不涉及任何人物肖 像或配音的使用。 与此同时，迪士尼将成为OpenAI的主要客户，利用其工具构建新产品和体验，并为员工部署 ChatGPT。 迪士尼首席执行官Bob Iger在声明中表示： "人工智能的快速发展标志着我们行业的一个重要时刻，通过与OpenAI的合作，我们将深思 熟虑、负责任地利用生成式人工智能扩展我们故事讲述的影响范围，同时尊重和保护创作者 及其作品。" 好莱坞制片厂此前对与人工智能公司合作持谨慎态度，一方面忧虑其数据使用方式，另一方面也担心会 引起日常合作的工会组织的不满，遭到创作端人员的抵制。 然而，据彭博社早前报道，OpenAI已积极与包括迪士尼、康卡斯特旗下环球影业及华纳兄弟探索公司 在内的行业头部制片厂展开接洽，共同探索其视频生成模型Sora在创意与商业层面的应用潜力。 今年9月，OpenA ...

作为财政部长，Bessent同时担任该委员会主席。他主张，降低监管壁垒和减少监督将强化金融系统并 促进经济增长，这一理念与该委员会设立初衷形成鲜明对比，但与特朗普政府的去监管化重点一致。 同时，新方针将要求委员会评估现有监管框架是否对经济增长构成"不当负担"，这意味着监管成本与经 济效率的权衡将成为决策核心考量。 美国财政部长Scott Bessent计划对美国金融监管方式进行重大调整，将金融稳定监督委员会的监管重心 从加强监管转向放松管制。这一政策转向标志着自2008年金融危机以来建立的监管框架可能面临根本性 变化。 12月11日，据媒体报道，Bessent在周四发布一封信件，建议改变金融稳定监督委员会(FSOC)的监管方 式，从此前专注于加强对金融机构的监管和监督，转向推动更宽松的监管环境。 信函将表示，理事会将与成员机构合作并为其提供支持，以审议美国金融监管框架的某些方面是否造成 过重负担并对经济增长产生负面影响，从而破坏金融稳定。 Bessent将同时成立一个工作组，专门探索人工智能在促进金融系统韧性方面的机会，同时监测AI应用 可能带来的金融稳定风险。 从危机应对到去监管化 金融稳定监督委员会成立于 ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's new obesity drug, retatrutide, shows the strongest weight loss results to date in late-stage clinical trials, significantly alleviating knee arthritis pain, which solidifies the company's leading position in the projected $100 billion obesity market [1][3] Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - In a 68-week trial, patients receiving the highest dose of retatrutide lost an average of 23.7% of their body weight, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of 20%-23% [1][4] - The drug also achieved a significant reduction in knee osteoarthritis pain, with an average decrease of 62.6%, and over one-eighth of patients reported complete relief from knee pain [1][4] - When only considering patients who adhered to the treatment, the average weight loss increased to 28.7% [4] Group 2: Mechanism of Action - Retatrutide operates through a triple hormone mechanism, simulating GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon, which appears to have a stronger effect on appetite and satiety compared to existing therapies that target one or two hormones [6] - The study, named TRIUMPH-4, is not solely focused on weight loss, suggesting that other trials specifically designed for weight loss outcomes may yield different or higher data [6] Group 3: Side Effects and Patient Dropout - Approximately 18% of patients in the highest dose group discontinued treatment due to side effects, compared to only 4% in the placebo group [5] - Common side effects included nausea (43%), diarrhea (33%), and vomiting (20.9%), with over 20% experiencing abnormal sensations [5] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly currently dominates the obesity drug market with Zepbound, which is the most popular weight loss medication [7] - The company is accelerating the development of more effective and easier-to-use next-generation drugs to maintain its competitive edge [7] - Novo Nordisk's new drug, which also employs a triple mechanism, poses a potential competition but is still in earlier development stages [7]

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 6 reached 236,000, which is higher than the expected 220,000 and significantly up from the previous week's figure of 191,000 [1] Summary by Category Employment Data - Initial jobless claims rose to 236,000, exceeding market expectations of 220,000 [1] - The previous week's claims were reported at 191,000, indicating a notable increase in unemployment claims [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the surge in Broadcom's stock price driven by the AI boom, market sentiment is becoming cautious due to high valuations ahead of the earnings report [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - Broadcom's stock has risen over 180% since hitting a low on April 4, making it the tenth best-performing stock in the S&P 500 during this period [1]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 42 times expected earnings, significantly above its ten-year average of 17 times [1][4]. - The stock experienced a pre-market decline of 1.38% ahead of the earnings report [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Concerns - Investors are worried that even if Broadcom's earnings exceed expectations, the stock may face a "sell the news" scenario due to already high valuations [3]. - Institutional investors, such as Huntington National Bank, have expressed concerns that the current pricing may be setting the stage for disappointment [3][4]. - Analysts are closely watching CEO Hock Tan's statements for indications of growth beyond the Google ecosystem, which could influence the stock's next movement [3]. Group 3: Earnings Expectations and AI Impact - Analysts expect Broadcom's adjusted earnings per share for Q4 to rise from $1.42 to $1.87, with revenue projected to increase from $14.1 billion to approximately $17.5 billion [6]. - Revenue from the AI segment is anticipated to reach around $6.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of approximately 68% [6]. - The optimism is largely based on Broadcom's role in manufacturing custom chips for clients like Google, which are critical for AI data center development [6]. Group 4: Customer Concentration and Diversification Concerns - There are concerns regarding customer concentration, as analysts emphasize the need for Broadcom to diversify its client base beyond a few large customers [7]. - The strong performance of TPU orders is expected to boost Broadcom's outlook for next year, but long-term diversification remains a priority for market participants [7]. Group 5: Management Expectations and Market Reactions - The management's guidance will be a focal point, with Hock Tan's reputation for delivering surprises being a key factor in market sentiment [8]. - Last quarter, Broadcom announced a new customer order exceeding $10 billion, which led to a significant stock price increase [8]. - Investors are also looking for signs of recovery in other business areas, including software and wireless communications, amidst volatility in the AI infrastructure sector [8].

美联储主席鲍威尔虽然在周三推动了再次降息的决定，但这一行动掩盖了央行内部日益加剧的分裂。 "这非常不寻常，在我参与美联储事务的十多年里，从未见过这种情况。" 他表示，如果自己仍在任，将会是那些"沉默反对票"的一员，并认为此次降息是一个"错误"。 在周三的正式投票中，FOMC 内部的异见已经公开化。堪萨斯城联储主席 Jeff Schmid 和芝加哥联储主 席 Austan Goolsbee 正式投出反对票，主张维持利率不变。与此同时，另一位理事 Stephen Miran 则持完 全相反的意见，主张进行更大幅度的降息。然而，除了这三张正式的异议票，其余的反对声音通过更为 隐蔽的机制表现得尤为明显。 数据背后的隐形阻力 除了点阵图中显示的六位反对降息的官员（其中至少四位、甚至可能全部缺乏此次会议投票权）外，周 三发布的文件中还隐藏着另一个关键线索。按照惯例，由商业领袖组成的地区联储董事会会向美联储提 交对贴现率的建议，这通常被视为该地区联储主席自身立场的直接体现。 在此次周三的会议上，鲍威尔最终促成了25个基点的降息。然而，除了少数拥有投票权的委员公开投出 反对票外，还有一大批参与辩论但不在今年投票名单上的地区联 ...

全球石油需求今年将平均达到创纪录的每日1.039亿桶。IEA表示，"宏观经济和贸易前景的改善"正在 提振需求。 值得注意的是，尽管经过调整，但2026年的供应过剩仍将创下年度纪录，仅次于2020年新冠疫情期间需 求崩溃时的水平。 国际能源署(IEA)自5月来首次下调全球原油供应过剩预期，随着需求增强和产量增长放缓，该机构将今 明两年的过剩幅度双双下调。 12月11日，IEA将2026年全球石油供应过剩预期从上月的每日404.6万桶下调至381.5万桶，降幅为23.1万 桶/日。这是自OPEC+联盟5月开始提高产量以来首次下调过剩预期，今年的过剩预期也是自2月以来首 次缩减。 这一预期调整反映出多个关键因素：OPEC+上月决定暂停增产、对该集团竞争对手产量的预估略有下 调，以及全球石油消费前景改善。 IEA在报告中指出，2025年第四季度的全球石油过剩预期已较上月报告收窄，"全球石油供应的无情飙 升戛然而止"。与此同时，"宏观经济和贸易前景的改善"正在提振需求。 OPEC+暂停增产、需求改善 OPEC+联盟的政策调整成为缓解过剩预期的关键因素。据华尔街见闻此前文章，石油输出国组织及盟 友(OPEC+)确认将在2 ...

作者 | 王小娟 编辑 | 黄昱 今年，互联网巨头们流行在香港置业。继阿里之后，京东也在香港买楼了。 香港丽新国际12月9日发布的公告披露，其出售Surearn Profits Limited全部股权的交易协定物业价值为34.98亿港元。交易预计最快于2026年1月完成。 这笔交易对应的底层资产是位于香港中环的中国建设银行大厦部分办公楼层，该大厦是由丽新集团与中国建设银行共同开发的甲级摩天商业建筑。据了解， 收购方为京东控股的投资主体。 京东方面也表示，京东始终看好在香港的发展，将围绕供应链持续投资推动零售、物流、技术研发等业务融入香港，服务香港。 京东此次购楼并非孤立行动，而是其系统化布局香港的最新落子。京东对香港市场的投入可以追溯到2015年，当时已在香港开设物流与电商相关业务。 而自2023年港澳服务升级的两年间，京东快递香港日均揽收快递量增长超50倍，形成了"香港最快4小时送到""揽派至22时""港澳次日达"等差异化能力，内 地与香港互寄快递量增长超130倍。 今年以来，京东在港布局明显加速。 3月，京东快递港岛运营中心正式投入运营，新增超过100名快递员；8月，正式完成对香港佳宝食品超级市场的收购， ...

全球央行政策分化正加速显现。美联储在延续降息路径的同时，欧洲、加拿大、日本、澳洲、新西兰等央行却普遍维持紧缩倾向，甚至步入加息 通道。货币政策的背离预计将在2026年通过汇率市场形成显著影响，美元面临的贬值压力成市场焦点，可能成为影响欧央行政策走向的关键外部 变量。 当地时间周三，美联储如预期降息25个基点。高盛分析师Rich Privorotsky最新研报指出，尽管市场因鲍威尔对中性利率的审慎表态及会议出现多 张反对票而滋生鹰派预期，但本次决议实际传递出鸽派基调。 与此形成鲜明对比的是，欧洲央行官员明确表示不会密切关注美联储降息。法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦·德加豪近日明确表示，"认为欧洲央行会亦步 亦趋跟随美联储是一种误解"，并指出"欧洲的货币政策立场已比美国更显宽松"。 欧洲央行多位官员在美联储12月议息会议前后密集发声，强调其货币政策独立性。法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦·德加豪上周五表示，欧洲央行应保持降 息选项，但"不应因美联储的行动而放弃自身政策节奏"。 欧洲央行执行委员会委员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔在接受采访时进一步指出："美国货币政策态势的变化不会对欧洲央行产生直接影响。我们依据欧元 区自身的数据和分析独立制定政策 ...