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北美缺电逻辑持续演绎,相关投资线索再梳理
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights significant regional power supply pressures in the U.S. due to the increasing establishment of data centers, particularly in Texas, California, and Virginia, with projections indicating a substantial power gap by 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Over 50% of data centers are projected to be built in Texas, California, and Virginia by 2024, leading to considerable regional power supply stress [1][2]. - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) anticipates an average peak power gap of over 20 GW from 2027 to 2030, with Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California facing significant risks [1][2]. - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts an average peak power gap of 20-40 GW by 2030 [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Challenges - The U.S. power supply is facing long-term challenges, including a decline in stable supply due to aging infrastructure and frequent outages, which cannot meet the 100% reliability demands of AI data centers [2]. - The upcoming retirement of coal power plants and the instability of wind and solar energy further exacerbate the supply issues, necessitating reliance on natural gas for current gaps [2]. Group 3: Technology Solutions - Gas turbines are identified as the optimal solution for self-built power generation in AIDC, with combined cycle gas turbines achieving over 60% efficiency and the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour [3]. - Gas internal combustion engines, while slightly less efficient, offer rapid deployment capabilities, with a significant increase in orders reported by leading companies [3]. - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) have high efficiency but are still in early commercialization stages, making them less viable in the short term [3]. - Diesel generators are noted for their quick start-up advantages, serving as optimal backup power solutions [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are shifting from gas turbines to gas internal combustion engines and SOFCs, as the current power deficit in North America exceeds the total production capacity of various technologies [4]. - Recommended companies for gas turbines include Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Dongfang Electric, Linde Co., and Haomai Technology [4]. - For gas internal combustion engines, Linde Co. is recommended, with additional attention to Weichai Power and Weichai Heavy Machinery [4]. - SOFC investments should focus on Weichai Power, while diesel generator investments recommend Linde Co. and other related companies [4].
四大CSP厂商资本开支超预期,需求传导推动功率半导体价格上涨
Group 1: Industry Overview - The AI infrastructure construction is still in a phase of large-scale investment, with the four major CSP companies' capital expenditures expected to reach $670 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 60% [3] - The global semiconductor industry is projected to achieve a record high sales of $791.7 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 25.6%, and is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026 driven by emerging technologies like AI and IoT [4] - The price increase trend in the semiconductor industry is spreading from memory chips to power chips, analog chips, and MCUs, indicating a comprehensive price increase cycle [4] Group 2: Company Performance - Google's Q4 2025 revenue reached $113.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.99%, with a net profit of $34.45 billion, reflecting a 29.84% growth [3] - Amazon's Q4 2025 revenue was $213.39 billion, up 13.63% year-on-year, with a net profit of $21.19 billion, a 5.94% increase [3] - Both companies are experiencing significant growth in their cloud and advertising businesses, with Google's cloud revenue growing by 48% year-on-year in Q4 2025 [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in demand, with strong performance expected in AIOT, semiconductor equipment, key components, and price increases in storage [5] - Companies to watch include those benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology, Hengxuan Technology, and Rockchip [6] - The semiconductor equipment and materials industry is also highlighted for potential investment opportunities, with companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei Company being recommended [6]
挖掘机1月内外销大增,龙头公司业绩预增
Core Viewpoint - The sales of excavators and loaders in January 2026 show significant growth, indicating a strong recovery in the domestic and international construction machinery market driven by major infrastructure projects and increasing demand for equipment upgrades [2][3][4]. Excavator Sales - In January 2026, a total of 18,708 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales reaching 8,723 units (up 61.4%) and exports totaling 9,985 units (up 40.5%) [2][3]. - The strong growth in domestic sales is attributed to a low base from the previous year due to the early Spring Festival, and upcoming projects in various sectors are expected to further boost demand [3]. - The export value of excavators in December 2025 was $1.277 billion, a month-on-month increase of 39.28%, and a year-on-year increase of 75.17% compared to December 2024 [3]. Loader Sales - In January 2026, a total of 11,759 loaders were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 48.5%, with domestic sales of 5,293 units (up 42.8%) and exports of 6,466 units (up 53.4%) [2][4]. - The growth in domestic loader sales is driven by the commencement of major projects, such as the Yaxia Hydropower Station and the New Tibet Railway, which have increased demand for earth-moving equipment [4]. - The sales of electric loaders reached 2,990 units, with an electric penetration rate of 25.43%, indicating a growing acceptance of electric machinery in the market [4]. Company Performance - Liugong (000528) is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.526 billion to 1.659 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15-25%, driven by stable demand in the domestic construction machinery sector [4]. - The company's growth strategy focuses on comprehensive solutions, digitalization, and globalization, aiming to optimize business combinations and reduce costs across the value chain [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand recognition, comprehensive product matrices, efficient cost management, and robust R&D capabilities, such as SANY Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), Liugong, Shantui (000680), and Hengli Hydraulic (601100) [5].
存储扩产确定性提升,持续推荐“两长”设备产业链
观点:2026年有望成为中国商业航天IPO提速关键一年,拟上市企业数量相较去年同期明显增加,主体 覆盖环节由单一向多环节扩展,商业航天产业链资本化进程加快。截至2026年2月6日,在中国15家拟上 市或已启动上市筹备的商业航天企业中,火箭相关企业7家(占比约47%),仍为主体;卫星整星企业4家 (占比约27%);卫星载荷、地面系统及航天材料等配套环节4家(占比约27%)。从上市进展看,8家处于上 市辅导阶段或已完成辅导验收,占比超过一半,另有2家已进入交易所受理、问询或审核流程,商业航 天企业IPO推进节奏正在加快。 人形机器人:推荐汇川技术(300124)、三花智控(002050);建议关注汉威科技(300007)。 本周行情:本周(2026/02/02-2026/02/06)沪深300-1.33%,其中机械设备板块+0.38%,申万一级行业排名 11/31位。机械设备子板块中,工程机械器件+7.52%,表现最佳。本周机械设备行业PE-TTM估值 +0.45%,子板块PE-TTM抬升幅度前三子板块为:工程机械器件+7.52%,工程机械整机+3.72%,制冷 空调设备+2.53%;后三子板块为:其他专用设备- ...
吉利控股集团法定代表人变更,李东辉卸任吉利控股集团法定代表人
浙江吉利控股集团有限公司成立于2003年3月,注册资本10.3亿人民币,经营范围含以自有资金从事投 资活动、汽车新车销售、汽车旧车销售、电力电子元器件制造、电池制造、电动机制造、道路机动车辆 生产等。股东信息显示,该公司由李书福、宁波翊马企业管理合伙企业(有限合伙)、李星星共同持股。 天眼查工商信息显示,近日,浙江吉利控股集团有限公司发生工商变更,李东辉卸任法定代表人并由总 经理、董事改任副董事长,由安聪慧接任法定代表人并担任董事兼总经理,同时,部分高管发生变更。 ...
全国性储能容量电价机制出台,储能系统价格持续上涨
爱建证券近日发布光储行业跟踪:2025年12月光伏组件出口额约23.14亿美元,同比增长18.22%,环比 下降4.05%;逆变器出口额8.39亿美元,同比增加26.12%,环比增长9.38%。包括光伏在内的部分产品增 值税出口退税将于2026年4月起取消,短期或带动国内光伏产品出货需求增加,长期或促进落后产能出 清,优化产能结构。 排产:1)光伏组件:据SMM,2025年12月光伏组件整体产量环比下降13.58%。据SolarZoom,国内受光 伏产品出口退税政策影响,市场组件端排产有提产规划,但实际落地情况仍有待观望;2)电芯:据大东 时代智库(TD)预测,2026年2月中国市场动力+储能+消费类电池排产量188GWh,环比下降10.5%,全球 市场动力+储能+消费类电池排产量195GWh,环比下降11.4%,行业供给端深度重构:头部企业的大电 芯订单充足,冷门电芯产线"主动停摆",近期多家企业密集新开储能专用产线,表明企业对储能长期增 长的认可。 以下为研究报告摘要: 投资建议:2025年12月光伏组件出口额约23.14亿美元,同比增长18.22%,环比下降4.05%;逆变器出口 额8.39亿美元,同比 ...
海外主要云厂商资本开支持续增长,DRAM价格小幅回落
Core Viewpoint - The data center industry is a key growth driver for the power equipment sector, with capital expenditure trends directly influencing demand for power distribution equipment [2] Demand Side - Capital expenditure from major cloud providers is expected to continue growing, with overseas capital expenditure projected to reach $113.86 billion by Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.30% [3] - In China, Alibaba's capital expenditure for Q3 2025 is expected to be 31.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.55%. Tencent's capital expenditure is projected at 13 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 24.05% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.05% [3] Supply Chain - Nvidia reported total revenue of $57.01 billion for Q3 2025, with data center product revenue reaching $51.22 billion, marking a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.62% and a year-on-year growth of 66.44% [4] - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 was 335 billion new Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.5%, with full-year revenue expected to reach 3.8 trillion new Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of 31.6% [4] Application Side - The number of AI models is steadily increasing, with application deployment becoming more frequent. The token call volume from January 27 to February 2, 2026, reached 9.81 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 26.91% [4] - The price of tokens for models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis index has decreased by over 50% following the release of new models [4] Investment Recommendations - The construction of data centers is expected to drive demand for HVDC and SST technologies, with an anticipated global increase of approximately 14 GW in data center installations in 2024. Major cloud providers are expected to continue increasing capital expenditures, with TSMC's capital expenditure projected to reach $52-56 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 30% [5] - Recommended companies include Zhongheng Electric (002364.SZ), Oulu Tong (300870.SZ), Weiteng Electric (688226.SH), and Sunshine Power (300274.SZ). Companies to watch include Kehua Data (002335.SZ), Kelun Electronics (002121.SZ), Magmi Tech (002851.SZ), Jinpan Technology (688676.SH), and Sifang Co. (601126.SH) [5]
景津景气度回升+出海+成套耗材新成长,固废出海推进,UCO价格上行稀缺性渐显
2026年策略:仓庚于飞,熠燿其羽:价值+成长共振,双碳驱动新生! 主线1——红利价值:重视市场化+提质增效、优质运营价值重估。1)固废:国补加速强化分红能力, 25年左右可再生能源补贴基金当年收支实现平衡,考虑资本开支下降+国补常态化回款,板块分红潜力 有望从114%提至141%;提吨发&改供热&炉渣涨价可带来业绩与ROE双升,关注海外新成长。重点推 荐①红利价值:【瀚蓝环境】【绿色动力H+A】【上海实业控股】【海螺创业】【永兴股份】【光大 环境】【军信股份】;②出海成长:【伟明环保】【三峰环境】【光大环境】【军信股份】。2)水 务:价格市场化+现金流左侧,自由现金流改善带来分红和PE估值提升空间可参照垃圾发电!重点推荐 【粤海投资】【兴蓉环境】【洪城环境】,建议关注【中山公用】【首创环保(600008)】等。 主线2——优质成长:第二曲线、下游成长、AI赋能。1)第二曲线:重点推荐【龙净环保】绿电储能 +矿山装备新成长。2)下游成长&修复:重点推荐【美埃科技】国内半导体资本开支回升,积极拓展锂 电+海外。【景津装备】压滤机龙头,受益锂电β修复有望迎拐点。3)环卫智能化:经济性拐点渐近, 行业放量在即。建议 ...
锂电产业链历史不会重演,但会押韵
Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery supply chain has experienced significant price increases from 2020 to 2022, driven by strong demand and a smooth transmission of price hikes across the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Electrolyte prices started at 70,000 CNY/ton in September 2020, rising to 100,000 CNY/ton by the end of the year, and reaching a peak of 580,000 CNY/ton in February 2022, with long-term contract prices stabilizing between 200,000 to 300,000 CNY/ton [2][3]. - Iron lithium cathode prices, including phosphoric acid iron and processing fees, doubled in 2021, peaking at over 40,000 CNY/ton by the end of that year [2][3]. - Anode prices began to rise in Q3 2021 due to graphite production constraints, increasing from 12,000 CNY/ton to a high of 25,000 to 28,000 CNY/ton by Q2 2022 [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low of 40,000 CNY/ton at the end of 2020 to 50,000 CNY/ton in early 2021, and surged to 300,000 CNY/ton by the end of 2021, eventually reaching 520,000 CNY/ton by February 2022 [2][3]. - The battery sector has effectively transmitted raw material price increases, with battery prices rising by 1 cent/wh in Q1 2021 and accelerating to 2-3 cents/wh in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, reaching over 1 CNY/wh [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Current market conditions resemble Q4 2020, with expectations for continued price increases due to strong demand and low profitability levels compared to previous years [3]. - The industry's expansion willingness is significantly lower than in 2021, with limited new supply expected by 2026, suggesting a more stable price environment [3]. - The anticipated price increases are not expected to be as dramatic as in 2021, with supply-demand tightness projected to be lower, particularly for hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The current valuation of leading companies is considered reasonable, with expected industry growth of 20% in 2027, suggesting potential for investment in the battery sector, including companies like CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [4]. - Material leaders such as Keda Lithium and others are also highlighted as strong investment opportunities, alongside companies in the lithium carbonate sector [4]. - The solid-state battery sector is recommended for investment, particularly with catalysts expected to materialize in Q4 2025 [4].
从“能不能捕”到“更好捕”!12项CCUS新国标落地,7月1日正式实施
作为推动"双碳"目标落地的关键技术,二氧化碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)的标准化建设迎来关键进 展。 近日,国家市场监督管理总局正式批准发布了12项CCUS国家标准。这一系列标准将于2026年7月1日起 全面实施。 北京师范大学中国绿色发展协同创新中心执行主任张九天在接受记者采访时指出,本轮新国标"成体系 性"地集中发布,纳入了社会高度关注的技术路线如火电碳捕集、长输管道运输、咸水层封存、驱油封 存,以及为确保项目质量和减排效果所必要的量化和检测,有助于填补标准空白,为CCUS项目规划设 计、建设运行、管理评估等提供必要依据,助力CCUS行业有序健康发展。这体现了我国CCUS全链条 标准体系正加速形成,以及国内标准建设与国际协同发展的积极趋势,可支撑我国相关行业不断开展能 力建设和夯实基础。 标准先行CCUS即将迈入"规模化"新阶段 近年来,我国CCUS各项技术均取得显著进展,基本具备了二氧化碳大规模捕集、运输、利用与封存系 统设计能力和近期实现规模化应用的基础,总体与国际先进水平较为接近且展现中国特色。一系列国标 的出台,是对我国CCUS产业从技术研发到落地应用实际需求的系统性回应。 中国21世纪议程管理中心 ...