Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in glass and soda ash futures prices is primarily driven by improved policy expectations and a recovery in market sentiment, with main contracts seeing increases of nearly 8% [1][2]. Macro Factors - The recent Central Bank meeting indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to support economic stability and boost market sentiment for commodities [3]. - The emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, along with maintaining ample liquidity, is seen as a foundation for improving macro expectations [3]. Industry Factors - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are leading to structural adjustments in the glass and soda ash industries, with initiatives like differentiated electricity pricing aimed at phasing out outdated capacities [3]. - Specific regional efforts, such as the transition to cleaner energy in glass production, are expected to further support price rebounds [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent improvements in production and sales in key regions are contributing to a favorable supply-demand balance for glass, with expectations of entering a destocking phase [4]. - However, the soda ash industry still faces significant supply pressure, with ongoing capacity expansions projected to add 410 million tons in 2025 and 430 million tons in 2026, while demand remains weak [5]. - The float glass market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with recent production declines and a slow recovery in the real estate market expected to lead to continued demand decreases [5][6]. Market Outlook - Industry experts suggest that both glass and soda ash sectors are at the bottom of their cycles, with limited rebound potential and increased short-term market volatility anticipated [7]. - Policy expectations are expected to dominate price trends, with fundamental factors unlikely to support sustained price increases [8]. - The long-term oversupply situation in soda ash is not expected to change quickly, while glass prices may see upward movement later in the year if supply-side adjustments are realized [8].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have been experiencing a significant rebound since mid-December 2025, driven primarily by uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's nickel mining policies, with a notable acceleration in price increases in 2026 [1] Group 1: Nickel Price Dynamics - The main catalyst for the recent rise in nickel prices is the uncertainty regarding Indonesia's mining policies, which has tightened supply and raised cost expectations in the industry [1] - Analysts indicate that Indonesia's nickel production target for 2026 is set at approximately 250 million tons, a 34% decrease from the 379 million tons quota in 2025, aimed at preventing further price declines [1][2] - The market sentiment in the non-ferrous sector is improving, with nickel being viewed as a relatively undervalued metal, leading to strong potential for price recovery [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - If Indonesia's nickel mining approval quota drops to 250 million tons, combined with imports from the Philippines and a projected consumption of 340 to 350 million tons, there will be a significant supply gap in local smelting materials [2] - Despite the tightening supply, the overall nickel market remains weak, with an expected surplus of approximately 190,900 tons in 2026, similar to 2025 levels, indicating limited demand growth [2] - Current high inventory levels, with LME nickel stocks exceeding 250,000 tons, suggest that the nickel market is still in a state of oversupply, despite some positive expectations [2] Group 3: Macro Factors and Market Sentiment - A moderately loose monetary policy is contributing to the upward pressure on non-ferrous metal prices, including nickel, with increased market liquidity expected to amplify price volatility [3] - The short-term market trajectory will depend on the interplay between Indonesia's mining policies and the existing oversupply and high inventory levels, while long-term focus should be on the implementation of Indonesia's mining approval policies [3]

Core Points - The event on December 16, 2025, marked a donation ceremony by CITIC Futures Co., Ltd. to support the Daying Town project in Ziyun Autonomous County, emphasizing the company's commitment to social responsibility and rural revitalization [1][3][5] Group 1: Donation and Support Initiatives - CITIC Futures provided two forms of assistance: a donation of 10,000 yuan to Daying Hope Primary School under the "Xinxing Nongtong Qisheng" educational support program, and an investment of 100,000 yuan into an automated egg-laying chicken breeding project to enhance local agricultural productivity [3] - The donation aims to empower rural education and support the local特色养殖产业, contributing to poverty alleviation and rural industrial revitalization [3] Group 2: Training and Collaboration - The event included a training session on "Insurance + Futures," where CITIC Futures shared knowledge on using financial tools to mitigate agricultural price risks, receiving positive feedback from attendees [1][3] - The collaboration between CITIC Futures and Ziyun County dates back to 2021, highlighting a deepening partnership focused on financial support for agricultural development and education [3][5]

1 行情回顾 2025年铜价重心再度攀升，在多重因素共振下突破2024年高点，刷新历史最高纪录。 2025年1月至3月下旬，美国总统特朗普对中国、加拿大、墨西哥等国加征关税，并宣布对铜进口展开232调查。受关税政策预期影响，COMEX市场和LME 市场的套利交易频繁，COMEX铜价大幅上涨，对LME和国内铜价亦有带动。 3月底至4月上旬，美国实施"对等关税"，全球经济衰退预期升温，股市和期市大幅下挫，铜价也大幅下跌，录得年内最低点。 4月中下旬，美国宣布对其他国家关税暂停90天，市场风险情绪回升，铜价自低位反弹。5月至8月期间，铜价波动幅度较小，美国与中国等国家达成协议， 关税忧虑消退，但在通胀隐忧下，美联储对降息持谨慎态度。7月底，特朗普宣布对几类进口铜产品征收关税，但将铜原材料排除在外，精铜套利交易有所 减弱。 9月至12月，美国非农数据不及预期，美联储重启降息周期。与此同时，印尼Grasberg铜矿因泥石流引发矿泄事故大幅减产。在宏观和基本面共振下，铜价 迎来大幅上涨行情。此外，2026年国内精铜存在减产预期， COMEX铜库存持续创新高，非美货源偏紧，对铜价形成有力支撑。 截至2025年12月31日， ...

2025年原油价格整体呈现前高后低、重心下移态势，下半年在弱基本面定价下，维持低波运行。 OPEC+与非OPEC+产量共增 OPEC+产量存在增长预期。2025年，OPEC+一季度延续220万桶／天的自愿减产措施，从4月开始逐步 解除减产措施，产量不断增长。2026年一季度考虑到需求疲软，OPEC+暂停增产，预计其提产步伐跟 随淡旺季调整。 地缘风险或间歇扰动油价。2025年11月，沙特、阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特每天原油产量分别为220万 桶、70万桶、40万桶、30万桶。OPEC+闲置产能充裕，在面对意外断供情况时，可以在较短时间内补 足。主要的地缘不确定性在伊朗、俄乌以及委内瑞拉。 回顾2018年美国退出"伊核协议"、2025年年中以伊冲突，对应油价的上涨空间均在13美元／桶左右。 2025年11月，伊朗每天原油产量为322.1万桶。 俄乌方面，2025年1月拜登对俄罗斯的制裁，以及2025年10月美国对俄罗斯两大石油巨头的制裁，对应 油价的上涨空间均在5美元／桶左右。但消息面对油价的影响多为短暂性的。目前，俄乌和平协议的推 进仍需各方磋商，其间原油价格受相关消息扰动。 委内瑞拉在经历长期制裁和经营不善后， ...

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend since mid-December last year, with the main contract price breaking through a five-month resistance level and reaching a new high [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 2025, iron ore prices are significantly outperforming other black commodities, with the iron ore price index reported at $105.80 per ton [1][2] - The current market structure shows a strong performance in spot prices, with port transactions increasing [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the supportive factors for iron ore prices, the overall supply-demand balance remains weak, limiting upward price momentum [3] - Steel mills have gradually resumed production since 2026, with average daily pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills at 2.2743 million tons, and daily consumption of imported ore at 2.8067 million tons, both showing slight increases [3] - However, the profitability of steel mills remains low, with only 38.10% of the surveyed mills reporting profits, indicating ongoing financial pressure [3] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Pressure - Domestic port arrivals have increased, with the latest data showing 28.247 million tons at 47 ports, a weekly increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level for the year [4] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased to 32.137 million tons, down 4.6342 million tons week-on-week, but still higher than the same period last year [4] - Port inventories have reached a historical high of 167.2179 million tons, with significant pressure on inventory reduction [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - In summary, while iron ore prices are supported by short-term factors, the overall fundamentals remain weak due to supply pressures and limited demand improvement, leading to expectations of a high-level oscillation in prices [5]

1月6日夜盘，沪镍多合约涨停，沪镍主力合约收涨至147720元／吨，LME镍期价盘中最高涨至18785美 元／吨。 据悉，全球镍市场仍处于供应过剩格局。尽管存在印度尼西亚减产预期，但主要生产国的产能惯性及新 能源汽车电池需求增长不及预期，使得整体供给依然宽松。不锈钢领域的需求受制于房地产等行业景气 度，尚未提供强劲拉动。 库存水平高企，对价格构成持续压制。截至2025年年底，LME镍库存25.4万吨，处于多年高位。中国国 内镍社会库存也同比显著增长。截至2026年1月4日，上期所镍库存为45544吨，高于近5年同期均值。 谈及镍现货市场格局的变化，王维芒认为，市场呈现"预期紧缩"与"现实过剩"并存的复杂局面。受减产 预期和年底部分企业检修影响，现货市场出现结构性紧张，例如2025年年末金川镍现货价格升水一度大 幅拉升至年内高点。供应收紧的预期已开始影响现货定价。 戴梓兆也认为，当前镍供需仍呈小幅过剩状态，经历了2025年10—11月减产后，国内精炼镍的累库速度 放缓，但仍维持累库趋势。数据显示，截至1月5日，全球精炼镍显性库存为31.66万吨，总量处于近5年 来高位。镍铁端，受终端价格的上涨带动，成交价环比上 ...

Core Insights - The silver market is currently experiencing a significant transformation driven by an expanding supply gap, declining inventories, surging industrial demand, and a return to its monetary attributes, with strong price support expected through 2026 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since 2020, the global silver market has faced a continuous supply gap for five years, with the Silver Institute projecting a gap of approximately 5,834 tons by 2025 [1] - Factors constraining silver production include rising mining costs, structural supply issues, insufficient new capacity, and the classification of silver as a strategic asset by various countries, limiting its circulation [1] Industrial Demand - Emerging industrial demand from sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers is identified as a key driver for silver demand growth, transforming silver into a high-tech metal [1] Financial Attributes and Market Behavior - Despite prolonged supply shortages, silver's pricing has lagged due to its weaker financial attributes compared to gold and increased recycling rates [2] - The market is expected to awaken in 2025, with silver prices anticipated to rise significantly, potentially surpassing gold [2] - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a dual-driven mechanism: initial boosts from the gold bull market and monetary easing, followed by self-driven supply-demand dynamics [2] Inventory and Pricing Trends - By 2025, LBMA silver inventories are projected to drop to 18% of their 2019 peak, while New York inventories, initially accumulated due to trade policies, are also declining rapidly [2] - The volatility of silver prices is noted to be greater than that of gold, with a significant reduction in the gold-silver ratio indicating that the rapid price correction phase for silver may be concluding [2] Future Outlook - The silver price is expected to maintain solid support unless the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightens unexpectedly, with structural growth in industrial demand and rising gold prices likely to continue supporting the market in the medium to long term [2]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices reached all-time highs, with the Dow up by 484.90 points (0.99%) closing at 49,462.08 points and the S&P 500 up by 42.77 points (0.62%) closing at 6,944.82 points [2] - The Nasdaq also saw an increase, rising by 151.35 points (0.65%) to close at 23,547.17 points [2] Commodity Prices - Silver prices surged, with spot silver rising by 6.18% to $81.3187 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up by 6.00% to $81.260 per ounce [2] - Platinum and palladium also saw significant increases, with platinum up by 7.27% to $2,458.73 per ounce and palladium up by 6.51% to $1,829.10 per ounce [3] - WTI crude oil futures fell by $1.19 per barrel (2.04%) to $57.13, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by $1.06 per barrel (1.772%) to $60.70 [3] Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market experienced widespread gains, with coking coal up by 5.61%, glass up by 4.53%, and pure alkali up by 4.15% [5] - Nickel contracts saw a significant increase, with multiple contracts hitting the limit up, and the main nickel contract closing at 147,720 yuan per ton [13] Nickel Market Insights - The recent surge in nickel prices is attributed to Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas and macroeconomic sentiment, with Indonesia planning to cut its nickel production target significantly [15] - Despite the reduction expectations, the global nickel market remains in a state of oversupply, with high inventory levels continuing to exert pressure on prices [16] - The market is characterized by a complex situation of "expected tightening" versus "actual oversupply," with significant inventory levels impacting price dynamics [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester chain market has experienced significant volatility since mid-December 2025, driven primarily by upstream PX price movements, leading to a focus on market dynamics and future trends [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The core driver of the recent market fluctuations is the upstream PX, which saw a price increase from 6,800 yuan/ton to over 7,600 yuan/ton, with a significant rise in trading volume [3]. - After reaching a critical price level, the PX market experienced a decline in trading volume, leading to a notable price correction [1][3]. - Analysts suggest that the current price correction is a natural pressure release and does not alter the long-term optimistic outlook for PX [3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The textile industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with decreasing orders and weaving operating rates, which is exacerbating cash flow pressures for polyester manufacturers [3][4]. - The rapid increase in raw material prices has forced some polyester enterprises to reduce production, creating a "hot upstream, cold downstream" scenario that hinders cost transmission within the industry [3][4]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to bring about a temporary halt in operations and a reduction in production, with downstream stocking intentions heavily influenced by market expectations [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand recovery post-Chinese New Year is seen as a critical factor for potential price increases in raw materials, with analysts indicating that a moderate price correction could benefit downstream operations [4][5]. - The timing of the Chinese New Year in 2026 may compress the demand release window, impacting downstream stocking enthusiasm and overall market dynamics [5]. - Short-term strategies are recommended to focus on profit-taking and risk aversion, with opportunities for buying on dips expected after price corrections [5].