Core Viewpoint - After four rounds of price reductions, the coking coal price has initiated its first price increase plan for 2026, with many companies receiving the price increase notice last week [1]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Since late December 2025, coking plants have transitioned from profitability to losses, with losses continuing to expand [6]. - The average loss per ton of coke last week was 65 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan week-on-week, while the profit for rebar steel fluctuated around 60 yuan per ton [7]. - Coking profits have been declining due to relatively stable coking coal prices, leading to a situation where coking plants are now operating at a loss [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply and demand for coke are weak, with total inventory accelerating accumulation. Both independent coking plants and steel mills have seen slight declines in production [7]. - The average daily production of independent coking enterprises is 634,500 tons, while steel mill coking enterprises maintain a daily production of 467,200 tons, both remaining stable but below last year's levels [8]. - Steel mills currently hold 6.5 million tons of coke inventory, which is at a relatively low level, with only 12 days of available supply [8]. Group 3: Winter Storage and Market Outlook - Due to the late timing of the Spring Festival this year, winter storage replenishment has been delayed, and most steel mills remain cautious about replenishing inventory due to poor terminal demand expectations [9]. - The independent pricing ability of the coking industry is still weak, with coke prices primarily influenced by coking coal and steel prices [9]. - The outlook for coke prices is limited, as steel mill profits have not improved, and the overall supply of raw materials remains relatively loose, suggesting that coke prices may experience limited upward movement [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite rumors of a decline in silver prices due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) rebalancing, silver prices have reached new highs due to changes in supply-demand dynamics and market perceptions [1][2][3] - As of January 16, silver prices in London reached $90.134 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 12.8%, and COMEX silver futures rose by 13.37%, while Shanghai silver futures surged by 22.83% [1] - The investment demand for silver remains strong, with non-commercial net long positions on COMEX increasing from 30,000 contracts in late December to 32,000 contracts by January 13 [1][2] Group 2 - The BCOM annual rebalancing period was strictly limited to January 8-14, 2026, indicating that the selling pressure was concentrated and not expected to have a long-term impact on prices [2] - The supply-demand imbalance, along with the shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy and significant capital inflows, is driving the current bull market in silver [2][3] - Global silver production fell to 820 million ounces in 2025, a 12% decrease from the peak in 2020, while recycled silver supply increased only slightly, failing to meet industrial demand [2] Group 3 - The rapid development of sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and 5G communications has led to a new growth phase in silver consumption [3] - Experts predict that silver prices will likely remain high in Q1 2026, with the possibility of reaching new highs, although volatility is expected to increase due to various supporting factors [3][4] - The recent announcement by the U.S. government to refrain from imposing comprehensive tariffs on key minerals, including silver, suggests a potential short-term risk of price correction [3] Group 4 - The ongoing supply shortage of silver is expected to persist for a considerable time, providing significant advantages to bullish forces in the market [4] - Future silver trading should focus on whether previous bullish factors have been fully priced in, the impact of risk control measures on trading activity, and the escalation of global geopolitical tensions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The target prices for precious metals for 2026-2027 have been raised by multiple investment banks, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the market driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - In 2025, the precious metals market experienced significant price increases, with international gold prices reaching new highs and a cumulative increase of 64.56% for the year, while domestic gold futures rose by 55.77% [1]. - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is expected to see a slowdown in employment and inflation in the U.S. economy, leading to a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and increased fiscal deficit pressure may position gold as a new pricing anchor in the monetary system, potentially allowing it to maintain a premium [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The allocation of gold by institutions is expected to increase, with continued support for gold prices from global central bank purchases and ETF demand [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, global gold demand reached 3,639.7 tons, marking an 11.7% year-on-year increase, driven by significant growth in ETF investment and central bank purchases [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts affecting key mineral resources have limited the growth of precious metal supplies, leading to tighter circulation inventories and potential supply-demand mismatches [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Considerations - Short-term trading strategies should consider market volatility and technical indicators, while long-term strategies can be aligned with global central bank gold purchases and ETF trends [2]. - Potential risks include the gradual release of AI's growth contributions in the U.S. economy post-2026, which could strengthen the dollar and exert downward pressure on precious metal prices [2]. - Overall, the precious metals market in 2026 is expected to retain strong investment value and premium space, with investors advised to monitor key variables such as U.S. employment, inflation, monetary policy, and central bank gold purchases [2].

Group 1 - The recent discussions between China and Canada have led to specific arrangements to address trade issues in electric vehicles, steel, aluminum products, canola seeds, and agricultural products [1] - China plans to adjust anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds and discriminatory measures on certain agricultural products, potentially allowing Canadian canola seeds and meal to re-enter the Chinese market by March [1] - Current canola meal inventory in China is around 470,000 tons, with 150,000 to 200,000 tons expected to be from Canada in 2025, currently stored in bonded warehouses [1] Group 2 - The theoretical profit margin for importing Canadian canola seeds remains around 300 CNY per ton, considering a 15% import tariff and 9% VAT, but this may change with fluctuations in external prices [2] - The price of ICE canola seeds has started to rebound, and as China-Canada trade relations improve, the CNF price of Canadian canola seeds may also rise, potentially narrowing profit margins [2] - If tariff rates on Canadian canola seeds are adjusted after March, domestic oil mills may face tight supply conditions until then [2] Group 3 - The valuation of Chinese canola products is expected to become more internationalized, with international canola meal prices currently weak while Canadian canola oil prices are supported by the U.S. market [3] - The resumption of China-Canada canola trade is anticipated to gradually reflect supply pressures in the domestic market, with Canadian canola oil dependent on the fulfillment of U.S. RVO policies [3] - Domestic canola meal prices are approaching corn prices, and if prices decline further, demand for canola meal may improve [3]

昨夜今晨，美国又带来"头条"消息。这边，为了格陵兰岛，美国不断威胁欧洲盟友。那边，因为加沙问 题，又与"铁杆"以色列产生裂隙…… 美国这些"动作"引发了哪些反应？一起来看详细报道。 美国因格陵兰岛问题对欧洲8国加征关税 据央视消息，当地时间17日，美国总统特朗普表示，将从2月1日起对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、 英国、荷兰和芬兰出口至美国的所有商品加征10%关税，加征关税的税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直 至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。随后，多国发表声明回应。 瑞典首相克里斯特松当天发表书面声明，称"我们不会被勒索。只有丹麦和格陵兰岛才能决定涉及丹麦 和格陵兰岛的问题"。 丹麦外交大臣拉斯穆森当天称美国总统特朗普宣布的关税政策"令人意外"，他表示丹麦正与欧盟保持密 切对话。 挪威首相斯特勒当天在社交媒体发文指出，盟友之间不应存在威胁。他表示，"挪威的立场坚定：格陵 兰岛是丹麦的一部分。挪威完全支持丹麦的主权"。斯特勒还表示，北约内部就加强北极地区（包括格 陵兰岛）安全达成了广泛共识。 法国总统马克龙当天在社交媒体上表示，美国总统特朗普在法国支持格陵兰岛后发出的关税威胁是"不 可接受的"。 德国政 ...

"在目前价格水平下，综合多家投行预测，贵金属2026—2027年的目标价格均被进一步上调，表明在宏 观金融属性和供需基本面利好预期下，市场对贵金属长期走势持续看好，其价格中枢将逐步上抬，同时 高波动将成为常态。"近日，广发期货贵金属研究员叶倩宁在"期货大家谈"栏目直播中，对2026年黄金 市场走势进行了深度解读。 从供需格局看，机构对黄金的配置比例仍有上升空间。叶倩宁表示，2026年全球央行购金和ETF需求将 持续支撑金价。2025年前三季度全球黄金总需求为3639.7吨，同比增长11.7%，其中ETF投资需求显著 增长，全球央行购金也保持较快增长。此外，逆全球化加剧了各国在关键矿产资源上的争夺，贵金属矿 产供应受各主要产地的地缘冲突扰动，增长空间有限，流通库存偏紧时更容易出现供需错配。 叶倩宁表示，操作节奏上，短期建议结合市场波动率、技术面参考指标及交易所风控措施择时进行波段 交易，中长期则可参考全球央行购金以及黄金ETF趋势进行相应比例配置。 同时，她提示，若美国AI的"增长贡献"在2026年后渐进释放并推动美国经济复苏、美国财政赤字逐步收 敛、美元资产走强、美联储维持"鹰"派，可能对贵金属价格形成打压。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions between China and Canada have led to specific arrangements to address trade issues in sectors such as electric vehicles, steel, aluminum, canola seeds, and agricultural products, with China planning to adjust anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds and certain agricultural products [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - The negotiations have resulted in a potential resumption of Canadian canola seeds and meal imports into China starting in March [2] - Current canola meal inventory in China is approximately 470,000 tons, with 150,000 to 200,000 tons expected to be from Canadian imports in 2025, currently held in bonded warehouses [2] - Adjustments to anti-dumping measures could lead to a significant influx of canola meal into the domestic market, impacting the local spot market basis [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The theoretical profit margin for importing Canadian canola seeds remains around 300 CNY per ton, considering a 15% import tariff and 9% VAT, although this may change with fluctuations in international prices [2] - The rebound in ICE canola seed prices suggests that the CNF quotes for Canadian canola seeds may rise, potentially narrowing profit margins [2] - The domestic oilseed market may experience tight supply conditions until tariff adjustments are made post-March [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - The international canola meal market is expected to face supply pressures as trade resumes, while Canadian canola oil prices are supported by the U.S. market [3] - Domestic canola meal prices are nearing corn prices, indicating potential demand improvements if prices decline further [3] - The price trends for domestic canola oil contracts will depend on the processing of Australian canola seeds, with current high prices for Russian and Dubai canola oil providing some support [3]

期货日报网讯据证监会网站，2026年1月16日，中国证监会第十四届稽查办案表彰奖励会在京召开。会 议深入贯彻落实党的二十届四中全会、中央经济工作会议和全国金融系统工作会议精神，全面总结稽查 执法工作成效，隆重表彰近两年在重大案件查办中表现突出的25个稽查有功集体和20名稽查有功个人。 中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清出席并讲话。 证监会领导班子成员、沪深交易所理事长出席会议，系统各单位、会机关各司局主要负责人现场或视频 参加会议。公安部、最高检有关同志应邀出席会议。 近年来，中国证监会坚决落实"长牙带刺"、有棱有角要求，始终保持对资本市场各类违法违规行为的高 压态势。稽查执法干部迎难而上、敢打硬仗，以高度的责任感、使命感履职尽责担当，集中力量查办了 一批财务造假、操纵市场、内幕交易等大案要案，有效维护了市场秩序，保护了投资者合法权益，促进 了资本市场高质量发展。 吴清主席要求，证监稽查执法战线要铸牢政治忠诚，全面提升调查质量，深化执法改革，强化科技赋 能，推进法治建设，凝聚执法合力，不断加强政治能力、业务能力建设，打造"三个过硬"的稽查铁军， 坚决捍卫市场公平正义，更好护航资本市场高质量发展。 ...

Group 1: US and Greenland Relations - President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on countries that do not support the US acquiring Greenland, citing national security concerns [1] - This marks the first time Trump has mentioned using tariffs as a means to acquire Greenland [1] - Danish Defense Minister Poulsen emphasized the need for continued dialogue following Trump's tariff threats, highlighting the seriousness of the situation [2] Group 2: US Consulate in Greenland - The US consulate in Greenland plans to relocate to a new building in the capital, Nuuk, with an area of approximately 3,000 square meters and bulletproof glass [4] - This move is intended to strengthen the relationship between the US and Greenland [4] Group 3: US and Ukraine Relations - Ukrainian and US delegations are set to meet in Miami to refine security and economic agreements, with key Ukrainian officials participating [6] - The discussions aim to finalize agreements that could be signed by Ukrainian President Zelensky and Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos [6] Group 4: Venezuela's Energy Sector - Venezuela has officially started exporting liquefied petroleum gas, marking a significant development in its energy sector [8] - The announcement was made by Venezuela's interim president, indicating efforts to enhance production levels in the oil and gas industry [9] Group 5: Chevron's Operations in Venezuela - The US is expediting the expansion of Chevron's oil operating licenses in Venezuela, allowing cash payments to the Venezuelan government instead of oil [11] - This adjustment is expected to enhance Chevron's commercial flexibility in Venezuela and reflects the latest US policy direction regarding Venezuelan energy [11] Group 6: Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda futures have dropped from around 2,300 yuan/ton to approximately 2,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new low since listing due to supply-demand imbalance and high inventory levels [13] - The production capacity utilization rate for caustic soda is at 86.7%, indicating high supply pressure [13] - Analysts suggest that the caustic soda market's supply-demand relationship is unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term, with potential recovery dependent on the aluminum oxide market or liquid chlorine price adjustments [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in lithium carbonate futures prices reflects a cooling market sentiment and trading atmosphere, with the main contract dropping by 8.99% to 146,200 yuan/ton, marking the largest single-day drop in recent times [1][3]. Market Sentiment - Market trading sentiment is gradually receding, influenced by weaker sales data in the domestic new energy vehicle market, which saw retail sales of 117,000 units from January 1 to 11, a 38% decrease year-on-year and a 67% drop compared to the previous month [3][4]. - Analysts indicate that the "rush for exports" effect, driven by changes in export tax rebate policies for battery products, has overstated future demand expectations, contributing to the price drop [3][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a tight balance, with a slight decrease in weekly inventory to 109,700 tons as of January 15, reflecting a destocking trend [4][5]. - Despite a temporary support for prices from downstream companies actively stocking up, the sustainability of this demand is uncertain once concentrated purchasing ends [6][9]. Price Volatility and Future Outlook - The volatility of lithium carbonate futures remains high, with potential for further declines as market participants reassess supply-demand dynamics post-holiday [5][8]. - The market is expected to experience a return to a fluctuating price pattern after the end of concentrated purchasing, as the current trading logic reflects a contrast between strong realities and weak expectations [8][9]. Information Integrity - There is a growing concern regarding the spread of misinformation affecting market sentiment and trading decisions, prompting calls for market participants to enhance their ability to discern accurate information [9][10].