期货日报网讯(记者王宁)2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，是巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效 衔接5年过渡期最后一年，东航期货党总支认真落实国家全面推进乡村振兴战略，响应中国东航 （600115）党组和东航金控党委的部署要求，持续做好与沧源班老乡下班老村定点帮扶工作，签订2025 年结对帮扶计划。 2025年，东航期货党总支以推进帮扶产业高质量发展为宗旨，聚焦当地特色主导产业，投入帮扶资金70 余万元，用于优化产业发展模式，加强金融服务助力推进乡村全面振兴。一是持续在班老乡实施天然橡 胶"保险+期货"项目。发挥期货工具的稳收增收作用，不仅使得当地胶农得到了稳定的价格保障，还助 力当地天然橡胶产业链可持续发展；二是持续投入资金优化百香果精品项目。过去两年东航期货投入资 金帮扶当地开创百香果种植项目，并成为其特色产业。在此基础上，东航期货今年继续投入资金，优化 百香果精品项目，为当地百香果产业提质增效。 乡村振兴任道远。多年来，东航期货深耕云南省沧源县班老乡结对帮扶工作，紧密结合自身期货行业特 点和东航平台优势，结合当地实际，不断创新服务方式，锲而不舍、久久为功，以实际行动诠释了中央 企业的责任与担当，在乡 ...

Group 1 - The methanol market is facing downward pressure due to high supply and weak demand, making it difficult for prices to rise in the near future [1][4] - Methanol imports to China are expected to remain high, with September imports estimated at 1.4 to 1.45 million tons, driven by increased shipments from Iran and other regions [3][4] - Domestic methanol production has decreased due to maintenance of several plants, with an average operating rate of 79.39% and a weekly production drop of 10.61 million tons [2][4] Group 2 - Despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, the recovery in olefin demand is slower than expected, with average operating rates for coal-to-olefin plants at 82.88% [4] - The port inventory of methanol in East and South China has increased significantly, reaching 1.3298 million tons, which adds to the supply pressure [3][4] - Overall, the domestic methanol market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance, leading to a continued bearish trend in prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of Argentina's export tax policy has led to a significant decline in domestic soybean product prices, with expectations of increased imports from Argentina affecting the market dynamics in China [1][2]. Group 1: Argentina's Export Tax Policy - On September 22, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products until October 31, reducing soybean export tariffs from 26% to zero and those on soybean oil and meal from 24.5% to zero [1][2]. - The policy has a cap of $7 billion on the total tax exemption, which will be suspended once this limit is reached [1]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Market - Analysts predict that the zero tariff on Argentine soybeans could lower the CNF price for November shipments to $2.00 per bushel, making it approximately $0.70 per bushel cheaper than Brazilian soybeans, translating to a cost reduction of about 200 yuan per ton [1][2]. - Following the announcement, Chinese oil mills have reportedly begun purchasing 10 to 15 shipments of Argentine soybeans [1]. Group 3: Changes in Import Dynamics - Historically, China has imported limited quantities of Argentine oil and meal, with almost no soybean meal imports and only a few thousand tons of soybean oil [2]. - The price advantage of Argentine soybeans may lead to a shift in China's import patterns, increasing competition in the South American oil and meal market and posing challenges to U.S. soybean production [2]. Group 4: Domestic Supply and Demand - As of mid-September, Argentina had exported 8.76 million tons of soybeans in 2025, significantly higher than the 4.5 million tons exported during the same period last year, with an expected additional export of 2 to 3 million tons by year-end [2]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply gap, with the expectation that increased imports of Argentine soybeans could fill this gap, particularly in the first quarter of 2026 [2][3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The domestic soybean meal market is expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and the anticipated increase in imports of Argentine soybeans and meal [4]. - Analysts suggest that the demand for soybean meal remains strong due to high livestock and poultry inventory levels, but the overall market may experience downward pressure on prices due to increased supply from domestic production and imports [4].

需求方面，四季度光伏需求也不乐观。"三季度受出口退税取消预期、印度下调光伏电池及新能源设备 的GST税率等因素影响，国内企业再度'抢出口'透支了部分四季度的需求。"孙伟东表示，"抢出口"预期 持续到10月。国内方面，四季度组件订单大多取决于今年4月至9月的组件招投标情况。据SMM数据，4 月至9月组件定标量为35.61GW，同比下降67%。 终端需求不乐观，叠加成本上涨压力，部分头部企业计划减产。从单月数据来看，9月预计多晶硅产量 超过13万吨，下游硅片产量在59GW左右，整体供过于求，企业面临累库压力。"限产政策落实不及预 期，且限销政策已经开始执行，使多晶硅单月供应趋紧。"孙伟东解释。 从现货成交情况来看，中信建投期货分析师刘佳奇表示，虽然限销政策导致多晶硅现货供应偏紧，并增 强了硅料厂的挺价意愿，但从实际成交情况来看，下游厂商对高价货源的接受度不高，加之行业隐性库 存偏高，进一步抑制了下游采购需求，基本面出现走弱迹象。不过，当前政策工具充足，市场信心仍有 修复的空间，后续需关注西南地区枯水期的减产情况。 "多晶硅价格近期下跌，是因为相关政策推进不及预期，当前价格已回吐大部分政策预期溢价，下游企 业也在三 ...

目前，国内铝价运行至年内高位区间，最高已触及21000元／吨一线，较年内低点上涨约10%，四季度铝价是顺势 走高，还是承压回落呢？ 国内进入传统旺季 8月份，国家统计局公布的制造业PMI指数为49.4%，环比上升0.1个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体继续保持扩 张。9月份数据还没有公布，但前瞻指标9月EPMI（战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数）环比上行4.6个百分点，至 52.4%，环比上行幅度大致持平于季节性均值水平，旺季特征显现。 相关数据显示，截至9月18日当周，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率环比增加0.1个百分点，至62.2%，与去年同期 相比下降1.3个百分点。分板块来看，原生合金方面，头部企业开工率平稳，但中小企业受需求影响开工率回调； 铝板带样本企业开工率微降，主要因为高铝价抑制下游备货需求，但消费韧性支撑排产稳定，而废铝涨价或倒逼 企业高价采购，预计短期开工率持稳或小幅波动；铝线缆开工率持稳，国庆假期临近或推动下游补库，需关注假 期停工影响；型材开工率小幅回升，建筑型材需求疲软，但工业型材受汽车、光伏等订单支撑；铝箔开工率高位 持稳，包装箔需求维持刚性，但增长乏力，新能源电池箔成亮点，有望冲击55万吨 ...

尽管终端需求不畅引发价格持续下挫，但鉴于加工费已处于极低水平，且供需基本面未显著恶化，PTA 价格并不具备大幅下跌基础。 加工费处于历史低位 受终端需求疲软及上游PX价格相对坚挺影响，PTA现货价格已处于历史同期低位，加工费亦被压缩至 130元／吨的极低水平。然而，生产过程中的综合成本已达4500元／吨，导致生产端每吨仍亏损约330 元。 聚酯行业自身经营状况尚可。涤纶长丝产品仍有小幅利润，聚酯切片产品亏损不大，整体经营情况较前 期略有改善。目前聚酯企业暂无明确检修计划，开工负荷仍维持较高水平。截至9月22日，国内聚酯开 工负荷为87.43%，同比上升1.95个百分点。 然而，受终端拿货意愿低迷影响，聚酯产品库存持续累积。截至9月18日，涤纶长丝POY、DTY、FDY 的库存可用天数分别为20.6天、31.5天和28.8天，同比分别上升11.35%、18.87%和33.95%。 综上所述，近期PTA价格大幅下挫，主要是受终端需求不畅及市场悲观情绪驱动。但从供需基本面看， PTA供应稳定，库存压力有限，基本面矛盾并不突出。加之其加工费已处于历史低位，预计当前PTA价 格跌势更多由情绪面主导，后市不具备持续深跌基 ...

Group 1 - The domestic cotton spinning market is showing a significant weakening trend, with the Zheng cotton main contract experiencing a decline after four months of rebound, reaching a low of 13,510 yuan/ton [1] - As of September 19, the total commercial cotton inventory in China was 1.1426 million tons, a decrease of 129,200 tons week-on-week, reflecting a 10.16% drop [2] - The forecast for cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 6.36 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons compared to the previous year, which may exert downward pressure on cotton prices [2] Group 2 - The textile industry's cotton industrial inventory is continuously decreasing due to insufficient orders and a lack of raw material procurement motivation [3] - The operating rate of textile enterprises was reported at 66.6%, the lowest level in nearly five years, indicating weak demand in the market [2] - Global cotton markets are facing pressure from the new cotton harvest in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly from the U.S., where the cotton harvest rate reached 12% as of September 21, in line with the five-year average [4] Group 3 - Concerns about global demand remain, with the U.S. cotton market experiencing downward pressure despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have not significantly improved the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [4] - The combination of new cotton entering the market and increased production expectations is expected to alleviate the tight inventory situation of old cotton, while the domestic cotton market is likely to enter a seasonal accumulation phase [4] - The overall outlook suggests that both domestic and international cotton prices may continue to decline in the short to medium term, influenced by multiple factors including the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [4]

数据显示，前8个月，我国电信业务收入保持正增长，累计完成11821亿元，同比增长0.8%。5G用户规 模持续扩大，移动物联网终端用户增长较快。截至8月末，三家基础电信企业及中国广电的移动电话用 户总数达18.19亿户，其中，5G移动电话用户达11.54亿户，比上年末净增1.4亿户；三家基础电信企业发 展移动物联网终端用户28.72亿户，比上年末净增2.16亿户。 据新华社电 记者23日从工业和信息化部获悉，今年前8个月，我国通信业呈现平稳运行态势。其中移动 互联网流量延续较快增势，截至8月末，移动互联网用户数16.01亿户，比上年末净增3132万户。 ...

本报讯（记者 张梦）为了进一步打造"期货期权、场内场外"联动贯通的市场格局，近日，郑商所携手 中国期货市场监控中心（下称监控中心）在湖北武汉成功举办玻璃和纯碱产业企业"期权+"专题培训活 动。据期货日报记者了解，本次培训选址玻璃、纯碱主产区，面向产业企业、期现贸易商及期货公司的 风险管理公司，旨在提升企业综合运用期货、期权工具及期现业务的能力与水平，满足企业在风险管理 和贸易模式转型升级中的多样化需求。 "期货市场在发挥功能的同时，因高杠杆、跨市场等特性也具有高风险特征，强化风险防控始终是期货 市场发展的重要任务。"上述监控中心相关负责人称，在现代市场经济条件下，金融市场的复杂性、技 术性特征日益突出，大家要充分了解和全面认识期货市场的总体特征和功能。本次培训正是基于此初衷 给玻璃和纯碱产业企业提供学习、交流和共享的平台，帮助大家充分了解期货市场的运作原理和运行机 制，掌握交易策略的基本规则和风险管理技能。 据记者了解，本次培训从当前宏观经济与大宗商品风险管理实际出发，涵盖玻璃、纯碱期货和期权基础 知识，以及基差贸易、期权体系、含权贸易、交割等内容，系统讲解了期货工具在企业采购、销售和库 存管理中的实际应用， ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel industry's added value, with a focus on optimizing structure and enhancing green, low-carbon, and digital development levels [1][2]. Group 1: Goals and Objectives - The plan sets a target for the steel industry to achieve an average annual growth of approximately 4% in added value from 2025 to 2026 [1]. - It emphasizes the need for economic benefits to stabilize and recover, with a more balanced market supply and demand [1]. - The plan aims to enhance effective supply capacity and significantly improve green, low-carbon, and digital development levels [1]. Group 2: Key Measures - Five key measures are outlined in the plan: 1. Strengthening industry management through capacity reduction and classification management to optimize supply and demand [2]. 2. Enhancing technological innovation in the industry to improve high-end product supply capabilities and stabilize raw material supply [2]. 3. Expanding effective investment by accelerating equipment upgrades and promoting digital and green transformations [2]. 4. Expanding market demand by increasing the application of steel structures in various sectors [2]. 5. Deepening open cooperation to stabilize foreign trade markets and enhance international development levels [2]. Group 3: Implementation and Support - The plan calls for strengthened organizational support, policy backing, and monitoring to ensure high-quality implementation [1]. - It highlights the importance of guiding financial institutions to provide quality financial services tailored to the steel industry's characteristics [1]. - There is a focus on talent development to meet the needs of new materials, processes, and digital transformation [1].