今年以来，贵金属市场上演了一场行情"接力赛"：黄金领涨，白银后来居上。其中，纽约期金和伦敦金现货累计涨逾70%，沪金期货涨近65%；纽约期银 及伦敦银现货累计涨逾170%，沪银期货涨逾155%。 编者按：今年以来，贵金属市场"牛气冲天"。2026年是"盛宴"尾声还是新周期的起点？期货日报即日起推出"破译金属新主线"栏目，全面梳理金属"牛 市"脉络，敬请关注。 点此追踪史诗级行情 本轮贵金属"牛市"背后的深层逻辑 这场轰轰烈烈的行情背后，最大的催化因素究竟是什么？又折射出了怎样的深层逻辑？期货日报记者就此采访了多位市场人士，他们将催化因素归结为以 下几点：市场对美元信用的担忧引发全球"去美元化"趋势、美联储进入降息周期、美国财政政策扩张、美国关税政策多变及地缘政治风险上升。 首先是市场对美元信用的担忧，引发全球主要央行持续购金。海通期货研究所贵金属研究员顾佳男向记者表示，自2022年俄罗斯外汇储备遭遇"冻结"后， 黄金作为"非主权信用资产"的战略价值日益凸显。 在全球"去美元化"趋势与美国政府债务规模持续膨胀的背景下，各国央行基于外汇储备多元化与资产安全的长远考量，持续增持黄金并逐步减少在伦敦等 传统金融中心的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing a significant bull market driven by multiple factors, with prices reaching historical highs by Q4 2025, presenting both opportunities and challenges for market participants [1][3]. Group 1: Driving Logic - The bull market in precious metals is a result of three main factors: the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, historical mismatches in supply and demand, and advancements in trading technology [2][3]. - The first factor involves the interplay between the reconfiguration of the global monetary system and the rise of protectionism, leading to a depreciation of currency purchasing power relative to physical assets, with gold being revalued as a key asset against inflation and geopolitical risks [3]. - The second factor highlights the shift of silver from a precious metal to a strategic key mineral, driven by increased demand from the photovoltaic industry and technological advancements that raise silver consumption in solar cells [3]. - The third factor emphasizes the diversification of market participants and the complexity of trading instruments, which allows for global resonance in response to market changes [3]. Group 2: Behavioral Finance Perspective - The acceleration in precious metal prices can be understood through behavioral finance, where market mechanisms react to paradigm shifts, leading to rapid price corrections [4][5]. - The "anchoring effect" becomes ineffective as prices break through historical highs, allowing for a new price discovery phase characterized by high premiums [5]. - The reversal of the "disposition effect" occurs as traders, fearing missing out, hold onto positions rather than selling early, leading to forced short-covering that drives prices higher [5][6]. - The "representativeness bias" accelerates market consensus formation, as traders begin to view rapid price increases as the new norm, leading to a swift transition from skepticism to certainty [6]. Group 3: Rational Response Strategies - Market participants are advised to avoid trying to predict market tops and instead focus on maintaining a trend-following discipline while implementing dynamic profit-taking strategies [7][9]. - Dynamic profit-taking is essential to protect gains while allowing for continued participation in upward trends, with strategies involving trailing stop-loss orders [9]. - Utilizing non-linear tools, such as buying out-of-the-money put options, can help manage risk while preserving core positions, aligning with the investment philosophy of cutting losses and letting profits run [9]. Conclusion - The precious metals market in 2025 reflects long-term changes in monetary credit and industrial structure, requiring traders to understand macro narratives and respect market mechanisms while adhering to disciplined risk management practices [11].

Core Insights - The global precious metals market is experiencing a significant bull market driven by multiple factors, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices seeing substantial increases [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Precious metal prices are expected to accelerate and reach historical highs by Q4 2025, presenting both opportunities and challenges for market participants [2] - The current bull market is characterized by a complex interplay of three main factors: the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, historical mismatches in supply and demand, and advancements in trading technology [3] Group 2: Driving Factors - The first factor is the reshaping of the global monetary credit system and the rise of de-globalization, leading to a dilution of currency credit and a re-evaluation of gold as a core asset against inflation and geopolitical risks [3] - The second factor involves a historical mismatch between industrial demand and supply-side vulnerabilities, particularly for silver, which is transitioning from a precious metal to a strategic key mineral due to increased demand from the photovoltaic industry [3] - The third factor is the integration of global markets and the upgrade of trading technologies, resulting in a more diverse participant structure and the use of complex derivatives [3] Group 3: Behavioral Finance Perspective - The acceleration in prices can be understood through behavioral finance, where the failure of the anchoring effect and the transition to new price discovery levels lead to rapid market adjustments [4][5] - The reversal of the disposition effect and the strengthening of liquidity during a strong upward trend contribute to the market's ability to correct mispricing through forced short covering [4][5] Group 4: Strategic Responses - To navigate the accelerating market, it is crucial for traders to avoid guessing market tops and instead follow a disciplined dynamic profit-taking strategy [6][7] - Maintaining a trend-following approach and executing dynamic stop-loss strategies are essential for protecting profits while allowing participation in ongoing market movements [6][7] - Utilizing non-linear tools, such as buying out-of-the-money put options, can help manage risks effectively while retaining core positions [6][7]

今日，伦敦现货白银价格突破79美元/盎司，再创历史新高。这一轮上涨行情，不免使人联想到1980年亨特兄弟操纵下的"白银狂 潮"。上述两轮行情均呈现价格大幅飙升、期货市场交投活跃的特征，但核心驱动逻辑、市场结构与最终走向截然不同——前者 是单一机构操纵市场引发的短期泡沫行情，后者是由基本面、宏观面与资金面支撑的趋势性行情。透过两场跨越四十余年的"白 银狂潮"，我们可以清晰窥探资本市场的进化轨迹与资产定价逻辑转换的核心规律。 1980年白银泡沫瞬间破裂 1979年8月至1980年3月，白银市场上演了一场由亨特兄弟主导的闹剧。当时，白银工业需求占比为40%，金融属性主导定价，这 为大机构操纵市场提供了可乘之机。亨特兄弟凭借在石油行业积累的巨额财富，通过家族企业、关联公司及离岸账户，在全球范 围内秘密囤积白银现货，短期内控制了全球50%以上的白银库存，导致COMEX白银期货库存骤降，现货市场流动性近乎枯竭。 在现货市场完成布局后，亨特兄弟转向期货市场，在纽约金属交易所大举建立多头头寸推高COMEX白银期货价格，形成"现货 短缺—期货涨价—空头恐慌"的市场状态。随后，投机资金跟风涌入，推动白银价格从1979年8月的6美 ...

Group 1: Metal Market Overview - The silver price surged to $76 per ounce, increasing nearly 6% in a single day and expanding its year-to-date gain to over 160% [2] - Platinum prices continued to rise, exceeding 10% in intraday trading, reaching a historical high, while palladium also saw similar gains [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.31% to $4,562 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 3.98%, while spot gold increased by 1.12% to $4,531.1 per ounce, marking a weekly rise of 4.44% [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Market Drivers - The rise in precious and base metal prices is supported by four main factors: increased geopolitical uncertainty leading to heightened safe-haven demand, a temporary weakening of the dollar, rising demand due to advancements in AI and global energy transition, and ongoing supply constraints in metals like copper, silver, and platinum [6] - Notable geopolitical events include Saudi Arabia's airstrikes in Yemen and Ukraine's potential peace negotiations with Russia, which contribute to market volatility [6] Group 3: Silver Market Insights - Analyst Peter Krauth suggests that despite short-term pullback risks, silver prices could reach $300 per ounce during an upcoming "frenzy phase," with current factors supporting a prolonged price increase [7] Group 4: Aluminum Market Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission's article on optimizing traditional industries positively impacted the aluminum market, with aluminum oxide futures rising by 5.6% to a near three-week high [12] - Current supply-demand mismatches in the aluminum oxide industry are highlighted, with production capacity growth lagging behind smelting capacity growth, leading to persistent market pressures [13] - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of the recent price increases, noting that the underlying fundamentals remain bearish despite the positive sentiment driven by policy announcements [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, surpassing $79 per ounce, is compared to the 1980 silver bubble driven by the Hunt brothers, but the current market dynamics are fundamentally different, supported by macroeconomic and supply-demand factors rather than manipulation [1][3]. Historical Context - The 1980 silver bubble was characterized by the Hunt brothers monopolizing over 50% of global silver stocks, leading to a price increase from $6 to $35.52 per ounce, a 492% rise in just six months [3]. - The macroeconomic environment in 1980, including high inflation rates and geopolitical tensions, contributed to the bubble, which ultimately collapsed due to regulatory interventions [5][3]. Current Market Dynamics - From January 2024 to December 2025, silver prices are projected to rise from $20 to $70 per ounce, a cumulative increase of approximately 250%, driven by strong industrial demand and macroeconomic conditions [7]. - The supply side is constrained due to aging mines in major producing countries, while demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles is robust, altering the demand structure for silver [7][8]. Regulatory and Market Structure Differences - The 1980 bubble was marked by concentrated market control, leading to reactive regulatory measures, while the current market features a more decentralized structure, allowing for proactive regulatory approaches to mitigate risks [14]. - The industrial demand for silver has increased to 65%, shifting the pricing logic from financial speculation to industrial utility, enhancing market resilience [14]. Future Outlook - Short-term volatility in the silver market is expected due to high delivery volumes and tight supply conditions, which will support futures prices [14]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for silver, with its price movements likely to be influenced by gold, and potential for higher returns, albeit with increased short-term risks [15].

"今年以来，我国资本市场经受住了多重考验，市场功能有效发挥，市场韧性持续增强，抗风险能力显 著提升，实现了规模有序增长与发展质量跃升，有力支撑了经济社会发展大局。"中国上市公司协会党 委委员、副会长余辉说。 中金财富证券党委委员、执委会委员、副总裁陈明表示，在大众财富管理市场上，要扩大服务半径，提 升个体的服务质量，必须借助于以AI为代表的金融科技的力量。 华鑫信托党委书记、董事长朱勇也表示，金融机构是理性的机构投资者，迎接AI时代的技术创新需要 与时俱进，用新方法构建新趋势。并从"指数法则"角度，指出投资于AI领域资本的五方面启示：第一， 在时间维度上，做耐心资本；第二，在风险维度上，要求有高容错的宽松投资环境；第三，新技术拥有 最终的话语权，在AI投资中比投资于物更重要的是投资于人；第四，在空间维度上，享受正向不确定 性馈赠的意外之喜；第五，财富增量比财富存量更加重要。 期货日报网讯(记者肖佳煊)12月26日，证券日报社主办"2025证券市场年会"，以进一步探讨资本市场改 革发展新路径，激发创新活力，共同展望行业新未来。 "十五五"新征程即将开启。《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", indicating that the financial sector is operating steadily with overall risks being controllable [1] - The report highlights the complex changes in the development environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing both opportunities and challenges [1] Group 1 - The financial system will adhere to a stable yet progressive work guideline, implementing proactive macro policies and enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments to mitigate key risks [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, while maintaining ample liquidity [2] - It stresses the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to monitor and assess systemic financial risks [2] Group 2 - The report advocates for the development of various financial sectors, including technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, to support national strategies and address weak areas [2] - It underscores the importance of maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level while preventing excessive fluctuations [2] - The report calls for proactive measures to resolve debt risks associated with financing platforms and to manage risks in small financial institutions and the real estate sector [2]

据中国期货业协会12月26日消息，为落实《关于加强监管防范风险促进期货市场高质量发展的意见》《期货公司 监督管理办法》要求，规范期货公司外部信息系统（以下简称外部系统）接入管理，保护交易者合法权益，中国 期货业协会起草了《期货公司接入外部信息系统管理规则（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《管理规则》），面向社 会公开征求意见，意见反馈截止时间为2026年1月12日。 据期货日报记者了解，随着期货市场快速发展和信息科技广泛应用，交易者越来越多地使用专业化、个性化交易 软件接入期货公司开展期货交易。一方面，外部系统的应用帮助交易者实现了交易策略定制、全面风险管控、跨 市场产品配置等功能，提高了市场效率；另一方面，因管理链条长、信息不对称、责任边界不清等，增加了交 易、业务合规风险和信息技术安全隐患。 《关于加强监管防范风险促进期货市场高质量发展的意见》明确要求，加强期货公司信息技术监管，督促期货公 司严格交易信息系统外部接入管理，保障信息技术安全。《期货公司监督管理办法》也对期货公司建立健全外部 系统接入管理机制，保证接入系统的合规性和安全性等作出明确规定。 去年以来，中国期货业协会多次调研期货公司外部系统现状，在中国证 ...

在数字经济浪潮奔涌、金融安全日益重要的今天，数据已成为期货市场的核心资产与关键生产要素。如 何在充分释放数据价值的同时，牢牢守住安全底线？近日，海证期货有限公司完成的《期货公司核心交 易数据合规应用研究》课题，为这一行业共性难题提供了系统性、可落地的"海证方案"，不仅彰显了其 主动拥抱监管、深耕合规文化的决心，更为全行业数据安全治理树立了新标杆。 合规不是束缚发展的'紧箍咒'，而是保障高质量发展的'压舱石'。海证期货希望通过这项研究，将被动 合规转化为主动治理，充分发挥期货公司行业文化"守正创新"，并将合规要求内化为公司的文化基因和 核心竞争力。 长期以来，期货行业在数据合规管理上面临"标准粗、措施泛、落地难"的痛点。现行指引多以"数据 类"为单位进行分级，颗粒度较粗，导致防护策略"一刀切"，既可能过度防护影响业务效率，又可能防 护不足埋下风险隐患。针对这一症结，海证期货课题组以《数据安全法》《个人信息保护法》及金融行 业标准为基石，创新性地将研究视角下沉至字段级，对CTP系统412个核心交易字段逐一"精准画像"。 该课题的价值不仅在于其技术深度，更在于其深厚的行业情怀。通过调研43家证券期货机构，课题组精 ...