美联储于12月宣布降息25个基点，并预期在2026年、2027年各降息一次。市场关注点转向下任美联储主 席人选。无论最终人选是谁，市场已开始预期2026年可能存在至少两次降息。需要注意的是，新任主席 或理事在联邦公开市场委员会中仅拥有一票或少数票，其决策仍将受美国消费端通胀可能反弹的制约。 此外，美联储将于12月12日起启动每月400亿美元的短期国债购买，并暗示在2026年一季度维持较高购 买规模，之后可能逐步放缓至每月200亿～250亿美元，旨在维持银行体系准备金充裕，应对明年4月的 税期流动性压力。此举属于技术性扩表，一方面适应经济增长带来的货币需求，另一方面回填此前量化 紧缩（QT）可能留下的流动性缺口。据巴克莱和摩根大通等机构预测，美联储2026年可能发行约5000 亿美元的短期国债，这被市场解读为积极的流动性投放信号。 全球主要经济体财政政策呈现宽松趋势。德国推出总额约9000亿欧元的投资计划，涵盖国防与公共基础 设施；美国未来十年债务上限提高5万亿美元，财政赤字预计增加；日本批准约21.3万亿日元的经济刺 激方案；英国亦扩大财政"缓冲空间"，政府借款预计增加。多国同步的财政扩张预期，可能推动全球经 ...

当人工智能的浪潮席卷全球，金融与科技的融合正以前所未有的深度与速度展开。在这场行业变革中， 华金期货敏锐地捕捉时代脉搏，将前沿技术与金融专业深度融合，不仅自主研发并落地了"基于AI期货 产业链分析平台"，更凭借其资产管理业务的卓越表现，赢得了市场与专业机构的双重认可。华金期货 正以科技与专业为双翼，从数据、算力、模型、应用等多层面立体构建期货服务价值体系，勾勒出一 幅"智慧服务实体，专业创造价值"的新图景。 科技赋能：用AI点亮产业链的"数据星空" 期货市场犹如一个复杂而精密的生态系统，品种繁多、产业链条纵横交错，影响因素瞬息万变。传统的 分析方式往往面临信息繁杂、响应迟滞的挑战。华金期货给出的答案是：用人工智能重新定义期货研 究。 华金期货以"智链实体·数驱未来"为理念，打造了集数据采集、知识构建、智能推演与辅助决策于一体 的AI产业链分析平台。该平台综合运用深度学习、大语言模型、多模态数据融合等前沿技术，构建从 上游原料到终端消费的全景式产业链图谱，实现对期货品种基本面与价格机制的动态刻画与预测。 据了解，该平台以产业逻辑为核心，围绕五大功能模块展开。 一是动态供需图谱系统，整合多源数据，实时监测各环节产 ...

Group 1 - Domestic refinery capacity utilization is steadily increasing, but asphalt supply pressure remains significant. With the onset of colder weather, road construction has stalled, leading to weakened asphalt demand and a gradual increase in social inventory [1] - Global crude oil inventories are accumulating, leading to a supply surplus expectation that dominates the crude oil futures market. U.S. crude oil production continues to reach historical highs, driven by shale oil technology advancements and policy support. Although OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases until Q1 2026, prior cumulative increases have already offset earlier production cuts [2] - Despite some refineries reducing asphalt production, overall domestic asphalt capacity utilization has only seen a limited decline. As of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate for 92 domestic asphalt refineries was 29.9%, down 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [3] Group 2 - The downstream sector is entering a low-demand season, with reduced asphalt road surface construction due to a new wave of cold air. Significant decreases in shipments are observed in Northeast and East China regions [4] - The domestic asphalt social inventory has slightly decreased, particularly in East China, where some projects are in the final stages, focusing on inventory consumption [4] - Overall, the combination of significantly lower domestic and international crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for asphalt. With steady supply pressure and a weak demand backdrop, the outlook for domestic asphalt futures is expected to remain weak [4]

据新华社电 记者12月16日从中国国家铁路集团有限公司获悉，今年1至11月，全国铁路发送旅客42.8亿 人次，同比增长6.6%，创历史同期新高。 ...

Group 1 - The Guangzhou Municipal Government has issued the "Beautiful Guangzhou Construction Planning Outline (2025-2035)", which includes the promotion of a carbon emissions trading market and support for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to advance the carbon emissions futures market [1] - The carbon emissions trading mechanism is a core policy tool for achieving China's "dual carbon" goals, guiding enterprises in emission control through carbon price signals, and is characterized by flexibility and economic efficiency [1] - The national carbon market has expanded this year, increasing the covered emissions scale from 5 billion tons to 8 billion tons and the number of controlling enterprises from over 2,200 to 3,700, resulting in a 60% overall market scale increase [1] Group 2 - The futures industry is actively focusing on industrial demand and innovating services to contribute to carbon emissions trading, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange prioritizing carbon emissions as a major strategic product since its establishment [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has completed the design scheme for carbon emissions futures contracts and will proceed with the listing of carbon emissions futures while refining market research and contract design [2]

Core Insights - The 2026 National Energy Work Conference was held to summarize the energy work of 2025 and the 14th Five-Year Plan, while deploying key tasks for 2026 [1] Group 1: Energy Security - The conference emphasized achieving a higher level of energy security in 2026 [1] - It aims to strengthen the coal supply guarantee, enhance electricity supply levels, and improve oil and gas production and supply capabilities [1] - The optimization of energy backbone channel layout and enhancement of the inherent safety level of energy infrastructure were also highlighted [1] Group 2: Green and Low-Carbon Transition - The conference outlined the need to advance the green and low-carbon transition in the energy sector [1] - There is a continuous effort to increase the proportion of renewable energy supply, with a target of adding over 20 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity throughout the year [1] - The orderly promotion of major hydropower projects and the safe and orderly development of nuclear power were also discussed, alongside the emphasis on the clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy [1]

12月16日，广期所铂、钯期价延续前一日的强势，均创下上市以来新高。其中，铂期货2606合约报收 485.75元/克，上涨2.46%，盘中最高升至505.60元/克；钯期货2606合约报收423.85元/克，上涨4.73%， 盘中最高升至432.05元/克。 中信期货分析师王美丹认为，基本面和情绪共振，推动铂、钯期价上涨。"全球流动性宽松预期给予 铂、钯价格较强支撑，同时基本面趋紧进一步拉动铂价上行。"王美丹解释称，从宏观层面来看，美联 储12月如期降息25个基点，扩表政策超市场预期，且市场对未来美联储独立性存在一定担忧，流动性宽 松预期有利于铂、钯价格进一步上行。 中信建投（601066）期货分析师王彦青认为，铂、钯期价上涨是多方面因素共振的结果。一方面，受黄 金牛市带动，铂、钯投资需求增加。铂、钯供给集中度高，主要来自南非与俄罗斯，且近年来行业产能 扩张停滞，供给增长受限。另一方面，美国关税担忧令现货向美国市场集中，市场可流通库存减少，特 别是伦敦现货市场库存偏紧，租赁利率上升，这是现货紧张的侧面体现。此外，美联储在12月议息会议 上决定启动扩表，压制美元指数，对铂、钯的金融属性形成利多，刺激铂、钯价格上 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline on December 16, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index down by 2.1%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.74 trillion yuan [1] - Aerospace electronic stocks surged, with Aerospace Electronic (600879) hitting the daily limit and achieving a turnover exceeding 10 billion yuan, closing with over 180,000 hands of orders [1] - Aerospace Electronic announced a cash capital increase of 727.5 million yuan for its subsidiary, Aerospace Changzheng Rocket Technology Co., aiming to enhance its comprehensive capabilities and address funding needs for key technology research and development [1] Group 2 - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is attributed to several factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts leading to a weaker dollar and a robust current account surplus in China, which supports the RMB's fundamentals [2] - The RMB has been considered undervalued since 2017, with a potential systemic undervaluation of approximately 6% compared to the weakening of the USD index, suggesting a significant appreciation of the RMB against the USD in the next 6 to 12 months [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced the final ruling on the anti-dumping investigation against imported pork and pig by-products from the European Union, confirming the existence of dumping and substantial damage to the domestic industry, leading to the imposition of anti-dumping duties starting December 17, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation and Findings - The investigation was initiated on June 17, 2024, in response to requests from the China Animal Husbandry Association, due to significant operational difficulties faced by the domestic industry [1]. - The final ruling confirmed that imported pork and pig by-products from the EU were found to be dumped, causing substantial harm to the domestic industry, with a causal relationship established between dumping and the damage [2]. Group 2: Anti-Dumping Duties - The anti-dumping duties will range from 4.9% to 19.8% for EU companies, effective from December 17, 2025, for a period of five years [1][3]. - Importers will be required to pay the anti-dumping duties based on the customs-determined taxable price of the imported goods [9]. Group 3: Product Scope and Description - The products under investigation include various forms of pork and pig by-products, such as fresh, chilled, frozen pork, and edible offal, among others [6][7]. - The specific product categories are classified under multiple tariff codes in the Chinese import-export tariff system [7]. Group 4: Review and Appeals - New exporters from the EU who were not involved during the investigation period may apply for a review under the anti-dumping regulations [10]. - Stakeholders can request a review of the anti-dumping duties during the enforcement period, and there are provisions for administrative review and litigation against the final ruling [10].

Group 1: Market Trends and Price Movements - The price spread between M2601-M2605 and M2603-M2605 has significantly widened, with M3-M5 rising above 330 CNY/ton, while M1-M5 is consolidating around 250 CNY/ton [1] - The Brazilian basis remains strong, particularly for the near months, while domestic sentiment is supported by extended customs clearance times for soybeans and relatively high auction prices [1] - The recent auction of imported soybeans on December 16 is expected to maintain strong cost support, with an average transaction price of 3950 CNY, indicating a shift from concentrated to dispersed ownership of soybean rights [1] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Market Analysis - As of last Friday, U.S. soybean futures closed at 1086.14 cents/bushel, down nearly 87 cents/bushel from late November's 1172.5 cents/bushel, reflecting a lack of positive factors for U.S. soybeans [2] - The USDA's December report did not adjust the domestic supply-demand balance, and favorable weather conditions in South America suggest a high likelihood of abundant soybean production for the 2025/2026 season, putting pressure on U.S. exports [2][3] - The EPA's proposal for biofuel blending volumes for the next two years is still under consideration, with a final decision unlikely to be announced this year [2] Group 3: South American Crop Conditions - The significant drop in CBOT soybean prices has led to a stronger Brazilian basis, with a weekly increase of 21 cents for February FOB prices, despite a slight overall price decline [4] - Brazil's northern early planting regions are entering the harvest phase, and favorable rainfall forecasts in the southern regions are beneficial for soybean growth [4] - Argentina has completed 58.6% of its soybean planting, with core areas achieving 60%-80% completion, although high soil moisture has slightly delayed operations [4] - Argentina has announced a reduction in soybean export taxes, lowering rates from 26% to 24% and from 24.5% to 22.5%, which may impact market dynamics [4]