Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is initiating significant reforms at the Federal Reserve, focusing on restructuring and reducing regulations, particularly in the banking sector [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Reforms - The Trump administration plans to reform the Federal Reserve, similar to changes made in other federal agencies, with a focus on evaluating the competence of its staff [1]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has indicated that reforms will accelerate once Chairman Powell's term ends in May 2026 or if he resigns or is dismissed earlier [1]. Group 2: Banking Regulation Changes - The Federal Reserve is revisiting and relaxing banking regulations established after the 2008 financial crisis, with Vice Chair Bowman expected to lead these changes [2]. - A proposal to adjust leverage buffer requirements for global banks has been approved, which is welcomed by large banks as it allows for increased lending [2]. Group 3: Staffing and Efficiency - The Federal Reserve has begun a workforce reduction plan, aiming to cut 10% of its approximately 24,000 employees over the next few years to improve efficiency [3][4]. - The administration is pushing for more aggressive staffing cuts, with discussions indicating that there may be many redundant positions within the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 4: Financial Losses and Budget Concerns - The Federal Reserve has incurred losses exceeding $220 billion since mid-2022 due to aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at controlling inflation, which has increased the cost of its bond portfolio [4]. - Criticism of the Federal Reserve's spending, including a $2.5 billion renovation project, reflects concerns about its financial management [5].

当前美国对进口商品征收的关税税率，最终稳定在略低于特朗普4月威胁水平的区间。但这微妙的差 异，已足够缓解华尔街对经济衰退的最深重忧虑。 摩根士丹利策略师迈克尔·泽萨斯（Michael Zezas）撰文称："我们仍认为最可能的结果是低速增长伴随 顽固通胀：虽非衰退，但贸易管制和移民政策对增长的负面影响，将超过放松监管与财政刺激的提振作 用。" 需要明确的是，贸易谈判的最终结局仍存变数。在特朗普设定的8月1日最后期限前，仍有包括日本在内 的多项贸易议题待解，这些都可能催生影响美国主要贸易伙伴的高额关税。 泽萨斯补充道："贸易摩擦若继续升级，可能轻易将天平推向温和衰退。总体而言，美国经济更倾向减 速轨道，但随着财政状况和赤字问题提前明朗化，深度衰退风险正在消退。" 美欧协议将为美联储本周评估关税对通胀影响提供新素材。自特朗普上任以来，美联储始终维持基准短 期利率稳定，主因决策者对关税通胀效应持谨慎态度。市场预计周三结束的议息会议不会采取行动，但 将密切关注美联储政策意向——这取决于最终有效关税率的落点。若经济走弱同时通胀受控，美联储9 月降息概率将显著提升。 花旗经济学家安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特（Andrew Holle ...

"美国政府的支出比收入多40%，而且实际上无法削减开支，"达利欧说，并补充道，"其累积债务是年 收入的6倍……每年的利息支出达1万亿美元，占预算赤字的一半。" 达利欧还解释说，美国政府只能通过发行更多债务，以及"央行（美联储）印钞"来偿还债务。 这可能导致市场越来越恐慌。达利欧认为，新一轮大规模量化宽松，或政府接管美联储，都可能引发市 场崩盘。 资深资产管理大师雷·达利欧（Ray Dalio）建议投资者，鉴于债券和股票市场风险上升，应将至少15% 的投资组合配置给黄金和比特币。 这位桥水联合基金（Bridgewater Associates）创始人在《顶级投资者播客》（The Master Investor Podcast）中表示，美国及其他地区政府债务上升所带来的宏观经济风险尚未反映在市场定价中，市场 最终可能面临大幅下跌。 另一方面，一些专家指出，黄金的风险往往比宣传的要高。加密货币分析师兼作家格伦·古德曼（Glen Goodman）告诉Decrypt，历史上某些时期对黄金来说很艰难。 "不可否认比特币价格波动大，但别忘了，1980年通胀危机期间买入黄金并持有20年的人，实际损失了 85%的资金，"他说， ...

Group 1 - The Houthis have vowed to escalate attacks on commercial vessels, increasing risks for ships navigating the critical trade routes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal [1] - The Houthis, supported by Iran, announced they would target any vessels belonging to companies trading with Israel, regardless of the company's nationality [1] - The recent attacks have significantly reduced the number of vessels traveling between Asia and Europe via the Red Sea and Suez Canal, leading many shipowners to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope [1] Group 2 - The Houthis have initiated a fourth phase of military support actions, which includes targeting vessels associated with any companies that have business ties to ports of enemies, particularly Israel [1] - A maritime security expert indicated that the international community's concern over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza may provide cover for the Houthis to resume attacks [3] - The Houthis' previous attacks have often targeted vessels with only weak connections to the countries they claim to oppose, sometimes based on outdated information [3][4] Group 3 - The management company of the "Eternity C," Cosmoships Management, has not yet engaged in negotiations with the Houthis regarding the release of the crew members [5] - The recent attacks have resulted in casualties, with at least four crew members reported dead in past incidents [4][5]

SHMET 网讯：美联储的官员们普遍预期最终需要恢复降息，只是尚未准备在本周三采取行动。分歧的核心在于：他们需要首先看到哪些经济证据？等 待这些信号明朗化是否会酿成错误？ 今年早些时候，当特朗普的关税政策引发通胀回升担忧时，美联储官员曾团结一致暂停降息。但随着关税引发的价格上涨比许多人所担心的更为温和， 且就业市场显现疲软迹象，利率制定委员会的官员们现已分裂成三大阵营，就是否重启宽松展开激辩。 沃勒两周前在纽约演讲时公开阐述降息理由。他至少向一位同僚透露，事先已私下向鲍威尔表明将在本周会议持异议。他认为6月微降的失业率掩盖了 私营部门招聘疲软，这与特朗普主张降息的逻辑不同——其前提是经济实际并不强劲。"如果考虑9月降息，还在等什么？现在就行动以避免劳动力市场恶 化，"沃勒如是说。 辩论另一端是第三类美联储官员，他们鉴于潜在价格上涨压力，希望看到实质性经济疲软证据再行降息。官员们注意到，当前实际征收关税远低于特朗 普宣布的税率，意味着随着海关执法和企业定价决策跟进政策宣示，价格压力可能在夏季累积。 这批官员对预设9月降息保持警惕，因为决策时点可能恰逢价格压力最严峻时刻。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克担忧，在通胀多年占 ...

Group 1 - The recently announced US-EU trade agreement has faced strong criticism from Germany and France, with warnings that it could harm the EU economy and lead to increased inflation [1][2] - The agreement, described by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the "largest trade agreement in history," covers nearly 44% of global GDP and aims to prevent a transatlantic trade war [2] - The agreement secures a lower tariff rate for the EU compared to the threatened 30% tariffs by the US, but the new 15% tariff is still three times higher than the average tariffs prior to Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement in April [3] Group 2 - European stock markets reacted negatively to the agreement, with the German DAX index falling by 1% and the French CAC40 index down by 0.4%, as initial optimism was overshadowed by concerns over the EU's economic outlook [3] - The automotive sector, significantly impacted by the tariffs, saw a decline of 1.8% in the Stoxx Europe 600 index after an initial rise [3] - The US Chamber of Commerce welcomed the agreement but noted that the 15% tariff still represents a significant increase in trade costs, suggesting that more industries should be included in the zero-tariff list [4]

"这是缓和局势、恢复和平与安全的关键第一步，"马来西亚总理安华·易卜拉欣（Anwar Ibrahim）在新 闻发布会上表示。他早些时候在布城官邸与泰柬领导人举行了两个小时的会谈。 自7月24日这两个东南亚邻国爆发冲突以来，两国800公里（500英里）边境线上的多地点冲突已造成至 少38人死亡，其中大部分是平民。 停火生效前数小时，双方均无官方报道称出现骚乱。 此次停火谈判前，安华持续推动和平进程，美国总统特朗普上周末也致电两国领导人，称若冲突持续将 不与其达成贸易协议。两国输美商品均面临36%的关税——美国是它们最大的出口市场。 柬埔寨与泰国的停火协议于当地时间周一午夜生效。数小时前，经过五天激烈战斗（已导致30多万人流 离失所），两国同意结束这场十余年来最严重的冲突。 在东盟轮值主席国马来西亚、美国和中国的斡旋下，两国领导人在布城会谈中同意停止敌对行动、恢复 直接沟通，并建立停火执行机制。 双方均指责对方上周率先开火，冲突在数小时内从小规模枪械交火升级为重型火炮和火箭弹攻击，泰国 还出人意料地出动F-16战斗机进行空袭。 泰国代理总理潘坎·维帕万（Phumtham Wechayacha）赞扬特朗普推动和平进 ...

美国总统特朗普周一表示，大多数不单独谈判贸易协议的贸易伙伴将很快面临15%至20%的对美出口关 税，远高于他在4月份征收的10%的关税。 "就全球而言，我想说税率会在15%到20%之间……我只是想友善一点，"特朗普在苏格兰坦伯利与英国 首相基尔·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）同坐时表示。 特朗普誓言要通过对几乎所有贸易伙伴征收关税来结束美国几十年来的贸易逆差，他已经宣布从本周五 开始对包括巴西在内的一些国家征收高达50%的关税。这促使包括印度、巴基斯坦、加拿大和泰国在内 的许多寻求降低关税的国家与美国进行了激烈的谈判。 特朗普上周日与欧盟达成了一项巨大的贸易协议，其中包括对大多数欧盟商品征收15%的关税，欧洲公 司在美国投资6000亿美元，以及未来三年购买7500亿美元的能源。 上周早些时候，美国还与日本签署了5500亿美元的贸易协议，并与英国、印度尼西亚和越南签署了规模 较小的贸易协议。包括印度在内的其他谈判正在进行中，但在周五之前达成更多协议的前景变得黯淡。 但特朗普周一称："我们将为全球其他国家设定一个关税税率，这是它们想和美国做生意就必须支付 的，因为你不可能坐下来达成200项协议。" 在特朗普发 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.33% and the S&P 500 saw a slight increase [4] - Nvidia (NVDA.O) increased nearly 2%, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 3%, and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) surged 10% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68% at 25,562.13 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.24% to 564.02 points, with a total market turnover of 250.3 billion HKD [5] Group 2 - The international oil market saw a rebound, with WTI crude oil rising 2.85% to $66.70 per barrel, marking a two-week high, and Brent crude oil increasing 2.91% to $69.57 per barrel [3][6] - Gold prices fell for four consecutive days, closing down 0.68% at $3,314.63 per ounce, while silver prices remained unchanged at $38.17 per ounce [3][6] - The U.S. dollar index rose significantly, closing up 1% at 98.633 points, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield at 4.417% [3][6]

Group 1 - The US and EU have reached a tariff agreement, alleviating some concerns about a potential trade war between the two economies [1][3] - The agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU exports, including automobiles, but there are unresolved issues regarding the scope of the agreement, particularly concerning metals [3] - UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that the trade agreement could reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold while also potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later this year, which is typically favorable for gold [3] Group 2 - Gold prices have increased by over 25% this year, driven by uncertainties from President Trump's aggressive trade policies and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East [3] - After reaching a historical high of over $3,500 per ounce in April, fund managers have raised their bullish bets on gold to the highest level in 16 weeks, according to the latest CFTC report [3] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming data that may influence market and economic trends for the remainder of the year, with particular attention on comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding monetary policy [3]