Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 155,600 tons, reflecting a change of -0.13% [1] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 25 tons to 479,525 tons, with a change of -0.01% [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 75,850 tons, showing a change of -0.62% [1] - Nickel inventory decreased by 1,248 tons to 210,414 tons, with a change of -0.59% [1] - Lead inventory decreased by 625 tons to 260,475 tons, reflecting a change of -0.24% [1] - Tin inventory remained unchanged at 1,655 tons [1] Registered and Cancelled Warrants - Registered copper warrants decreased by 1,375 tons to 144,225 tons, with a cancellation rate of 7.31% [2] - Registered aluminum warrants decreased by 8,150 tons to 465,475 tons, with a cancellation rate of 2.93% [2] - Registered zinc warrants decreased by 30,450 tons to 45,400 tons, with a cancellation rate of 40.15% [2] - Registered nickel warrants decreased by 11,094 tons to 199,320 tons, with a cancellation rate of 5.27% [2] - Registered lead warrants decreased by 60,975 tons to 199,500 tons, with a cancellation rate of 23.41% [2] Location-Specific Inventory - Copper inventory in Changxing decreased by 50 tons to 48,150 tons [4] - Aluminum inventory in Port Klang decreased by 25 tons to 314,400 tons [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 475 tons to 75,750 tons [9] - Tin inventory in Port Klang decreased by 25 tons to 1,220 tons [11] - Nickel inventory in Hring decreased by 1,248 tons to 46,374 tons [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that copper prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with a minor decline of 0.01% at closing, influenced by limited macroeconomic guidance and increased social inventory at the beginning of the week [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are showing a rising trend, suggesting that demand-side expectations for price increases remain, although forward contracts for the fourth quarter are still around -40, indicating no substantial improvement in the tight supply situation [1] - As of August 18, domestic electrolytic copper inventory reached 144,200 tons, an increase of 11,800 tons compared to August 14, with significant inventory growth observed across various markets, particularly in Shanghai due to increased imports [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, copper prices are maintaining narrow fluctuations due to recent macroeconomic uncertainties, including mixed signals from tariff negotiations with the U.S. and ongoing uncertainties regarding key agreements with China [1] - The fundamental outlook for U.S. refined copper remains divided, particularly with concerns over excess inventory potentially leading to a weaker market, which could impact global copper prices [1] - Despite the potential for price weakness, the expectation of a seasonal increase in demand during September may stimulate downstream purchasing and inventory replenishment, thereby limiting the extent of price declines [1]

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that copper inventories remained relatively stable last week, with the latest inventory level at 155,800 tons [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated that copper inventories increased by 5.4% to 86,361 tons, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high as of the week of August 15 [1] - International copper inventories rose by 123 tons to 10,967 tons [1] - The New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 267,195 tons, the highest level since late January 2004 [1] Inventory Trends - LME copper inventory remained stable at 155,800 tons, showing minimal fluctuation [3] - SHFE copper inventory increased to 86,361 tons, marking a 5.4% rise [3] - COMEX copper inventory reached 267,195 tons, reflecting a consistent upward trend [3] - The overall trend indicates that declining inventories in domestic and international exchanges typically support copper prices, while increasing inventories may exert downward pressure [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased slightly due to a weaker dollar, with a rise of $7.5 or 0.08%, closing at $9,773.5 per ton on August 15 [2][3] - The meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, is significant as it marks their first face-to-face meeting since June 2021 [2][3] - The market is observing the outcomes of the U.S.-Russia summit, which is expected to last at least 6 to 7 hours [1][2] Group 2 - The dollar's depreciation supports the market by making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers using other currencies [5] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 20% increase in copper inventory over the past two weeks, reaching 86,361 tons, the highest level in two months [5] - Citi raised its three-month copper price forecast from $8,800 to $9,200 per ton, although this remains a bearish outlook compared to current prices due to U.S. tariff increases affecting manufacturing and economic growth [5]

沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情有所回暖，收盘微跌0.08%。美国PPI走高打压降息预期，美指走强形成 一定压制，不过铜市供需面暂时有支撑，跌幅十分有限。 此前美国7月CPI的温和令市场对于美联储9月降息押注大幅升温，甚至有降息50个基点的猜测，然而昨 日公布的7月PPI意外走高，大超市场预期，数据公布后市场虽然继续押注9月降息，但降息50个基点的 可能性基本被排除，主因市场担忧物价压力抬头，隔夜美指反弹，沪铜走势略显承压。 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，通胀令降息预期有波动，未来仍有海外美国经济逐步走弱，国内反内卷 驱动行情放缓，物流回流潜在过剩。几个因素不利于铜价持续上涨，且有向下压力。未来需观察消费改 善情况，若持续弱于季节性则支撑能力有限。 （文华综合） 之前海外矿端干扰较多，国内铜精矿加工费反弹有限，今日智利国家铜业公司称埃尔特尼恩特铜矿冶炼 厂已重启运行。机构统计的7月国内精炼铜产量稳中有增，不过受原料端偏紧的限制，对于后续精炼铜 产量有下滑的预期，不过仍需落实。最近LME铜库存仍然呈现震荡回升姿态，不过国内精铜社会库存 低位徘徊，现货升水仍然偏高，继续为铜价提供支撑。 ...

Group 1: Inventory Changes - LME copper inventory decreased by 50 tons to 155,800 tons, with a registered warehouse receipt of 144,275 tons and a cancellation ratio of 7.40% [1][3] - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 125 tons to 479,550 tons, with a registered warehouse receipt of 465,450 tons and a cancellation ratio of 2.94% [1][5] - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,125 tons to 76,325 tons, with a registered warehouse receipt of 30,925 tons and a cancellation ratio of 40.52% [1][9] Group 2: Specific Warehouse Inventory - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory remained unchanged at 48,200 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 2.96% [3] - In Rotterdam, aluminum inventory decreased by 125 tons to 3,575 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 31.47% [5] - In Singapore, zinc inventory decreased by 1,125 tons to 76,225 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 40.54% [9] Group 3: Overall Market Trends - The overall trend shows a decrease in inventory levels across multiple metals, indicating potential supply constraints in the market [1][4][6] - The cancellation ratios for zinc and aluminum are notably high, suggesting increased demand or potential market speculation [1][9][5] - The fluctuations in inventory levels may impact pricing dynamics in the metals market moving forward [1][4][6]

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production reached 3.78 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [1] - Cumulative production from January to July 2025 totaled 26.38 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] - In July 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 6.81 million tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] - The cumulative production of these metals from January to July 2025 was 47.39 million tons, also indicating a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger US dollar and investor caution regarding tariffs, the Russia-Ukraine situation, and US interest rates [1][4] - On August 14, LME three-month copper fell by $37, or 0.38%, closing at $9,766.00 per ton [1][2] - The strong dollar, influenced by high US producer price inflation, makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4] Group 2 - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $3.50 (0.13%), zinc up by $19.50 (0.69%), and lead up by $1.50 (0.08%), while tin and nickel saw declines [2] - Market analysts are closely watching upcoming events, including the Jackson Hole meeting and the FOMC's release of July meeting minutes, for potential market-moving information [4] - There is potential for market upside, but a triggering factor is needed to break the current trading range of $9,500 to $9,900 [4]

Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - The LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, bringing the total to 155,850 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 144,800 tons and a cancellation ratio of 7.09% [3][2] - The highest cancellation ratio was observed in the location of Hla, at 15.48%, with a total inventory of 18,250 tons [3] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,050 tons to reach 479,675 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 465,450 tons and a cancellation ratio of 2.97% [5] - The highest cancellation ratio was noted in Singapore, at 93.49%, with a total inventory of 4,225 tons [5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 77,450 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 45,425 tons and a cancellation ratio of 41.35% [9] - The cancellation ratio in Singapore was slightly higher at 41.37%, with a total inventory of 77,350 tons [9] Group 4: Nickel Inventory Changes - LME nickel inventory increased by 42 tons to 211,140 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 198,666 tons and a cancellation ratio of 5.91% [13] - The highest cancellation ratio was recorded in the location of Baltimore, at 94.44%, with a total inventory of 108 tons [13] Group 5: Tin Inventory Changes - LME tin inventory increased by 50 tons to 1,830 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 1,540 tons and a cancellation ratio of 15.85% [11] - The highest cancellation ratio was observed in the location of Baltimore, at 100%, with a total inventory of 30 tons [11]

Cochilco表示，智利今年的铜产量预计将达到558万吨，较去年增长1.5%。5月份，该委员会预测产量增 幅为3%。 Cochilco将2026年的产量增幅预测维持在3%，但将产量预估从597万吨下调至575万吨。 WisdomTree大宗商品策略师Nitesh Shah表示，本周即将公布的中国数据可能为基本金属提供更明确的 方向。 据证券时报网报道，宁德时代8月11日在互动平台表示，公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂 停了开采作业，正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生产，该事项对公司 整体经营影响不大。 Shah表示："停止宁德时代锂矿项目建设，展现了遏制'内卷化'的决心。我们正在关注铜精炼产能过剩 问题是否会迎来类似措施，这类措施可能会支撑铜价。" 智利国家铜业委员会（Cochilco）周三将2025年和2026年的铜均价预测维持在每磅4.30美元，原因是精 矿供应有限，且中国和其他新兴经济体的需求保持坚挺。 8月13日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜逆转走势收跌，贸易担忧缓和的支撑作用消退。 伦敦时间8月13日17:00(北京时间8月14日00:00)，LME三个 ...