Group 1 - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger US dollar and investor caution regarding tariffs, the Russia-Ukraine situation, and US interest rates [1][4] - On August 14, LME three-month copper fell by $37, or 0.38%, closing at $9,766.00 per ton [1][2] - The strong dollar, influenced by high US producer price inflation, makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4] Group 2 - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $3.50 (0.13%), zinc up by $19.50 (0.69%), and lead up by $1.50 (0.08%), while tin and nickel saw declines [2] - Market analysts are closely watching upcoming events, including the Jackson Hole meeting and the FOMC's release of July meeting minutes, for potential market-moving information [4] - There is potential for market upside, but a triggering factor is needed to break the current trading range of $9,500 to $9,900 [4]

Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - The LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, bringing the total to 155,850 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 144,800 tons and a cancellation ratio of 7.09% [3][2] - The highest cancellation ratio was observed in the location of Hla, at 15.48%, with a total inventory of 18,250 tons [3] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,050 tons to reach 479,675 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 465,450 tons and a cancellation ratio of 2.97% [5] - The highest cancellation ratio was noted in Singapore, at 93.49%, with a total inventory of 4,225 tons [5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 77,450 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 45,425 tons and a cancellation ratio of 41.35% [9] - The cancellation ratio in Singapore was slightly higher at 41.37%, with a total inventory of 77,350 tons [9] Group 4: Nickel Inventory Changes - LME nickel inventory increased by 42 tons to 211,140 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 198,666 tons and a cancellation ratio of 5.91% [13] - The highest cancellation ratio was recorded in the location of Baltimore, at 94.44%, with a total inventory of 108 tons [13] Group 5: Tin Inventory Changes - LME tin inventory increased by 50 tons to 1,830 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 1,540 tons and a cancellation ratio of 15.85% [11] - The highest cancellation ratio was observed in the location of Baltimore, at 100%, with a total inventory of 30 tons [11]

Cochilco表示，智利今年的铜产量预计将达到558万吨，较去年增长1.5%。5月份，该委员会预测产量增 幅为3%。 Cochilco将2026年的产量增幅预测维持在3%，但将产量预估从597万吨下调至575万吨。 WisdomTree大宗商品策略师Nitesh Shah表示，本周即将公布的中国数据可能为基本金属提供更明确的 方向。 据证券时报网报道，宁德时代8月11日在互动平台表示，公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂 停了开采作业，正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生产，该事项对公司 整体经营影响不大。 Shah表示："停止宁德时代锂矿项目建设，展现了遏制'内卷化'的决心。我们正在关注铜精炼产能过剩 问题是否会迎来类似措施，这类措施可能会支撑铜价。" 智利国家铜业委员会（Cochilco）周三将2025年和2026年的铜均价预测维持在每磅4.30美元，原因是精 矿供应有限，且中国和其他新兴经济体的需求保持坚挺。 8月13日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜逆转走势收跌，贸易担忧缓和的支撑作用消退。 伦敦时间8月13日17:00(北京时间8月14日00:00)，LME三个 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that copper prices are influenced by U.S. inflation data supporting expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while rising inventories are limiting price increases [1][3] - London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper fell by 0.05% to $9,836.00 per ton, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) September copper contract rose by 0.56% to ¥79,380 per ton, reflecting mixed market sentiments [1][2] - Analysts note that the increase in copper inventories at both LME and SHFE is a significant factor restraining price growth, with LME copper inventories rising by 11% and SHFE inventories increasing by nearly 13% in August [3][4] Group 2 - The increase in inventories is attributed to a prior surge in shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of a 50% tariff on copper, which has since been alleviated as refined copper was excluded from the tariff [4] - The broader industry sentiment is bolstered by the prospect of U.S. monetary policy easing, as indicated by a report from ANZ analysts [2] - Other metals on the LME showed varied performance, with aluminum up by 0.23% to $2,625.50 per ton, while nickel, lead, tin, and zinc experienced slight declines [5]

Group 1 - Nickel prices are experiencing a sideways trend, with the main contract down by 0.24% to 122,340 yuan/ton, influenced by a moderate overall inflation in the US and a 95% probability of interest rate cuts in September [1] - The nickel ore market remains stable, with strong pricing sentiment from Philippine mines, while Indonesian primary nickel output remains high, leading to a continued decline in nickel ore prices, although they are still at relatively high levels [1] - Demand from the downstream nickel iron sector is improving, with steel mills reducing losses, which has slightly eased the pressure on raw material pricing [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of nickel products is high, with signs of production slowdown in Indonesian smelters, but the supply remains elevated [2] - Domestic demand for nickel has significantly increased in the first half of the year, yet the supply-demand balance remains in surplus, indicating limited contradictions in nickel's supply and demand [2] - Short-term focus should be on changes in the macroeconomic environment, while medium-term attention should be on the potential tightening of Indonesian nickel ore supply [2]

Group 1 - The rapid construction of AI data centers is expected to tighten global copper supply, potentially leading to a supply gap of 6 million tons by 2035 [1] - The average annual demand for copper in the AI sector is projected to be around 400,000 tons over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028, with a cumulative total usage exceeding 4.3 million tons by 2035 [1] - Demand for copper from other industries, such as power transmission and wind energy, is also surging, with expected usage nearly doubling by 2035 [1] Group 2 - The increase in AI capacity is putting pressure on an already tight market, exacerbated by years of insufficient investment in new copper supply [1] - Following the unexpected announcement by former U.S. President Trump to exclude refined copper from a 50% import tariff, COMEX copper futures experienced a significant drop of 20% in late July [1] - As demand accelerates and supply growth lags, analysts predict copper prices will peak at $13,500 per ton by 2028 [1] Group 3 - By 2035, the global copper supply is expected to be only 29 million tons, significantly below the 35 million tons needed to meet demand, indicating a worsening supply shortage [1] - Copper accounts for nearly 6% of the capital expenditure in a data center project [1]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a decrease in tin inventory last week, but there was an increase in the first two days of this week, with the latest inventory level at 1,765 tons [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that tin inventory continued to accumulate for the fourth consecutive week, with a weekly increase of 1.75% to 7,805 tons, marking a two-month high [1] - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges supports price levels, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - A comparison of LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventories since July 2025 shows the following data: as of August 12, 2025, LME inventory was 1,765 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 7,805 tons [4][5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose to a two-week high due to easing trade concerns and a decline in the US dollar following inflation data, closing at $9,840.5 per ton, up $109 or 1.12% [1] - LME copper touched a peak of $9,855 per ton, the highest level since July 28 [1] - The increase in LME copper inventory by over 70% since the end of June, reaching 155,000 tons, has put pressure on copper prices and alleviated supply concerns [3] Group 2 - The US and China agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days starting August 12, which may positively impact market sentiment [3] - The US consumer prices showed a moderate increase, enhancing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate demand for dollar-denominated metals [3] - LME spot copper has widened its discount to three-month copper to $84 per ton, the largest since February [3]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of mineral transfer registration authority by Shanxi Province's Natural Resources Department has boosted market sentiment, leading to increased trading activity in the alumina market, particularly in the main contract ao2509, which saw a rise of over 4% [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The main alumina contract ao2509 experienced a trading volume increase of 123,000 lots, reaching 296,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 18,700 lots to 96,100 lots [1] - The long-short positions in the top 20 rankings for the main alumina contract showed a reduction in both long and short positions, with a significant decrease in short positions by 13,800 lots to 55,280 lots [1] - The long-short ratio increased from 0.89 to 1.01, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a more bullish outlook [1] Group 2: Position Changes - Guotai Junan Futures increased its long positions by 664 lots while reducing short positions by 4,016 lots, resulting in a net short position reduction to 2,788 lots [3] - CITIC Futures expanded its long position by over 2,000 lots, transitioning from a net short position of 203 lots to a net long position of 2,696 lots [3] - Other firms like Yong'an Futures and Huatai Futures also adjusted their positions, with some showing a shift from short to long, reflecting expectations of continued upward movement in prices [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the positive market sentiment, reports indicate that domestic mines are unable to resume production, which may limit the impact of the policy change on alumina supply [4] - The actual effect of the policy adjustment on local alumina production is expected to be limited, with new production capacities and the resumption of previously reduced capacities likely to lead to an increase in output [4] - The anticipated increase in alumina supply may outpace demand growth, leading to expectations of oversupply in the market [4]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported an increase in nickel inventory, reaching a four-year high of 212,232 tons on August 8, before slightly decreasing to 211,296 tons [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also saw a continuous accumulation of nickel inventory, increasing by 1.72% to 25,750 tons, marking a two-month high [1] - Generally, a decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges supports futures prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - A comparison of LME and SHFE nickel inventories since July 2025 shows the following data: - As of August 11, 2025, LME inventory was 211,296 tons - On August 8, 2025, LME inventory was 212,232 tons, while SHFE inventory was 26,194 tons - The trend indicates a consistent increase in SHFE inventory over the past weeks [4][5]