Group 1 - The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) reported a decline of over 7% in copper production from Codelco, reaching 115,600 tons by September 2025 [1] - The Escondida copper mine, owned by BHP, saw an increase in copper production of nearly 17%, totaling 118,600 tons [1] - The Collahuasi project experienced a significant drop in copper production, decreasing by 26% to 38,000 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices increased due to optimism surrounding the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, with three-month copper rising by $79.5 to $10,796.0 per ton [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper rose by $79.5, or 0.74%, closing at $10,796.0 per ton [1][2]. - Other base metals also saw increases, with three-month aluminum up by $21.5 (0.75%), zinc up by $24.5 (0.80%), lead up by $11.5 (0.56%), tin up by $202.0 (0.56%), and nickel up by $48.0 (0.32%) [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 23%, reaching a record high of $11,200 per ton on October 29 [4]. - The U.S. Senate passed a bill aimed at reopening the federal government, which positively influenced market sentiment and risk appetite [5]. - Recent economic data, including a drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, suggests a potential call for lower U.S. interest rates [5]. Group 3: Global Supply and Demand - China's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year in October, while the core CPI increased by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [6]. - The producer price index (PPI) in China saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise of the year, although it decreased by 2.1% year-on-year [6]. - Significant aluminum inflows into the LME from the Middle East, Australia, and Indonesia have led to a decrease in the available stock ratios of Russian and Indian aluminum in LME warehouses [6].

Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 375 tons, reaching a total of 136,275 tons, reflecting a 0.28% increase [1] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, totaling 547,225 tons, which is a 0.36% decline [1] - Zinc inventory remained unchanged at 34,900 tons [1] - Nickel inventory rose by 300 tons to 253,404 tons, marking a 0.12% increase [1] Registered and Cancelled Warrants - For copper, registered warrants decreased by 0.06% to 124,550 tons, while cancelled warrants increased by 3.99% to 11,725 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 8.60% [2] - Aluminum registered warrants remained stable, while cancelled warrants decreased by 5.04% to 37,675 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 6.88% [2] - Zinc registered warrants increased by 0.16% to 30,375 tons, with cancelled warrants decreasing by 1.09% to 4,525 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 12.97% [2] - Nickel registered warrants increased by 8.82% to 14946 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 5.90% [2] Location-Specific Inventory - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory increased by 500 tons to 54,350 tons [4] - Aluminum inventory in Port Klang decreased by 2,000 tons to 356,025 tons [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore remained stable at 30,975 tons [9] - Tin inventory in various locations showed no changes, remaining at 3,035 tons [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper market shows a slight decline in social inventory, supporting copper prices amid ongoing concerns about tight supply from mines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai copper closed up 0.62% after a day of strong fluctuations [1] - As of November 10, domestic electrolytic copper inventory was 198,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to November 6 [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain around -40 USD per dry ton, indicating ongoing tightness in supply [1] - Market concerns about tight supply are bolstered by recent announcements from some mining companies lowering their annual production targets [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures anticipates that the market will maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term, with a slight oversupply in the fundamentals [1] - Future attention should be given to the impact of Indonesian mines on the non-US copper inventory [1]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing fluctuations with the main contract rising by 1.04% to 286,560 yuan/ton, influenced by tight domestic ore supply despite long-term easing expectations from Myanmar's Wa State resumption of production [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic mining sources remain tight, impacting the overall supply of tin [1] - The operating rate of tin smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi stabilized at a high of 69.13%, but further increases are limited due to ongoing tightness in tin ore supply [1] - The seasonal maintenance of large smelting plants in Yunnan has concluded, leading to production recovery, but the supply of tin ore remains constrained [1] Market Conditions - Despite the approval of mining licenses in Myanmar's Wa State, actual export volumes are significantly below normal levels due to the rainy season and slow resumption of production, failing to fill the supply gap [1] - Recent declines in tin prices have spurred some downstream replenishment demand, but limited warehouse arrivals have resulted in a reduction of social tin inventory [1] Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures comments that recent price fluctuations are primarily driven by macroeconomic disturbances, with a slight accumulation expected under domestic baseline conditions, while overseas markets continue to experience low inventory levels [1] - Overall, the divergence between macroeconomic factors and fundamentals suggests that tin prices are likely to maintain a high-level oscillation [1]

Core Insights - In October, China's copper ore and concentrate imports reached 2.451 million tons, with a cumulative import of 25.086 million tons from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - In contrast, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in October were 503,000 tons, with a cumulative export of 5.02 million tons from January to October, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.6% [1] Import Data - Copper ore and concentrate: October imports were 2.451 million tons valued at $6.957 billion; cumulative imports from January to October were 25.086 million tons valued at $67.064 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - Unwrought copper and copper products: October imports were 438,000 tons valued at $4.662 billion; cumulative imports from January to October were 4.456 million tons valued at $44.361 billion, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [1] Export Data - Unwrought aluminum and aluminum products: October exports were 503,000 tons valued at $1.758 billion; cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons valued at $17.383 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.6% [1]

Group 1 - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is evaluating the fatal accident at Freeport Indonesia's Grasberg copper-gold mine to determine the cause and any negligence involved [1] - The assessment aims to establish whether operations can resume safely once the evaluation is completed [1] Group 2 - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [1] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Freeport Indonesia has completed the investigation into the landslide incident at the Grasberg copper-gold mine that resulted in the deaths of seven workers and has received improvement recommendations from the government [1] - The Indonesian Ministry of Mining is evaluating the incident to determine if negligence or regulatory violations contributed to the disaster before deciding on the resumption of operations [1][2] - On September 8, approximately 800,000 tons of wet material flooded the Grasberg mine complex, leading to the fatalities [1] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan indicated that the Big Gossan and Deep Mill Level Zone mines at Grasberg could potentially restart operations in the fourth quarter, as they were not affected by the landslide [2] - The Grasberg Block Cave (GBC) is expected to account for 70% of Freeport Indonesia's projected copper and gold production by 2029 [2]

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan Inc has resumed operations at the Big Gossan and Deep Mill Level Zone mines after a fatal mudflow incident at the Grasberg mine, which occurred in late October [1] - The two mines that resumed operations were not affected by the September incident that resulted in the deaths of seven workers [1] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources in the upstream sector, overcapacity in the midstream processing segment, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [1] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [1]

11月6日（周四），加拿大伦丁矿业（Lundin Mining）将全年铜产量预期上调约4%至31.9-33.7万吨，高 于之前的30.3-33万吨，因旗下位于智力的Caserones矿表现好于预期，促使该公司同样下调其成本预 估。 | | 2025 | | | | 2024 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | YTD | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Total | Q4 | 03 | Q2 | Q1 | | Continuing Operations | | | | | | | | | | | Copper (t)b | 244,200 | 87,353 | 80,073 | 76,774 | 336,875 | 94,094 | 91,772 | 71,614 | 79.395 | | Gold (oz)b | 107,730 | 37,763 | 38,118 | 31,849 | 158,436 | 46,456 | 46,712 | 32,439 | 32,829 | | Nickel ...