Group 1 - Vale SA's base metals division aims to achieve an annual copper production of 1 million tons, surpassing its 2035 target [2] - The CEO of Vale Base Metals, Shaun Usmar, expressed confidence in unlocking existing assets to exceed the current production goal of 700,000 tons by 2035 [2] - Major mining companies like Anglo American and Rio Tinto are competing to increase metal production through acquisitions [2] Group 2 - Only four mining companies, including Freeport-McMoRan and BHP Group, are expected to exceed 1 million tons of copper production in 2024 [4] - The demand for copper is anticipated to surge due to electrification and broader energy transitions, leading to rising prices amid supply concerns [4] - Vale's base metals division is also considering a joint development project with Glencore in Canada, which may require up to $2 billion and produce approximately 42,000 tons of copper annually [4]

注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所铅库存对比 以下为2026年1月以来LME和上期所铅库存数据：（单位：吨） 伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铅库存延续下行趋势，1月19日库存降至逾两个月新低 203,500吨，昨日库存明显累积，最新库存水平为225,575吨。 上海期货交易所公布数据显示，1月16日当周，沪铅库存继续累积，周度库存增加23.02%至37,044吨， 增至逾一个月新高。 ...

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 3,100 tons to reach 159,400 tons, reflecting a change of +1.98% [1] - Aluminum inventory rose by 24,175 tons to 507,175 tons, showing a growth of +5.01% [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 450 tons to 111,850 tons, marking a decline of -0.40% [1] - Lead inventory fell by 2,925 tons to 222,650 tons, indicating a decrease of -1.30% [1] - Tin inventory increased by 250 tons to 7,210 tons, representing a rise of +3.59% [1] Group 2: Warehouse Specific Changes - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory increased by 525 tons to 82,150 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 30.37% [4] - In Rotterdam, aluminum inventory decreased by 125 tons to 10,400 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 6.01% [5] - In Singapore, zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 74,075 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 5.70% [9] - Tin inventory in the port of Klang increased by 250 tons to 2,950 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 4.75% [11]

Group 1 - Sibanye Stillwater has completed a multidisciplinary assessment of the Keliber lithium project in Finland, which is considered the most advanced integrated lithium project in Europe [2] - The Keliber project aims to produce approximately 15,000 tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (LiOH) annually over an 18-year period [2] - The project has been designated as a strategic project by the EU, aligning with the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) [2] Group 2 - The construction phase is expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2026, with total capital investment estimated at approximately €783 million [2] - Sibanye and its strategic partner, Finnish Minerals Group, have agreed that a phased approach to the Keliber project is the best way forward given current market conditions [4] - This phased approach aims to reduce project start-up risks by ensuring operational readiness in mining and beneficiation before refining plant commissioning [5] Group 3 - Finnish Minerals Group is preparing to participate in the project according to its 20% equity stake to secure additional financing needed during the start-up phase [6] - The CEO of Sibanye Stillwater emphasized that the phased acceleration plan ensures responsible advancement of the Keliber project while balancing market realities and stakeholder interests [6] - Significant investments have been made during the price cycle to complete the construction phase of the Keliber project, ensuring regional supply for the EU battery value chain [6]

除中国和未报告地区外，12月原铝产量为231.5万吨，日均产量为7.47万吨。 1月20日（周二），国际铝业协会(IAI)公布的数据显示，2025年12月全球原铝产量同比增加0.5%，至 629.6万吨，日均产量为20.31万吨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after a significant decline in nickel prices, the market is currently experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with the main contract down over 2% [1] - Short-term supply constraints from Indonesia are unable to be disproven, providing some support for prices, but there are expectations for potential quota replenishment in the long term [1] - The current fundamental changes are limited, maintaining an oversupply situation in the market [1]

Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has submitted a shortlist of state-owned assets to the United States, including manganese, copper-cobalt, gold, and lithium projects for consideration by American investors under a mineral partnership framework [1] - This submission marks a significant advancement in the U.S. efforts to translate the peace and investment agreement with the DRC into tangible influence over critical mineral supply chains [1] - Following the agreement facilitated by former President Trump to ease tensions between the DRC and Rwanda in the eastern mineral-rich region, U.S. agencies have accelerated their acquisition of strategic metals [1] Industry Developments - The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has signed a mineral marketing cooperation agreement with the DRC's state mining company, Gecamines [1] - The DFC is also supporting the $553 million Lobito Corridor upgrade project, indicating a commitment to enhancing infrastructure related to mineral extraction and transportation [1]

Group 1: Iron Ore Imports - China's iron ore import volume reached 125,870.9 million tons in 2025, marking a historical high and a 1.84% increase from 2024, driven by strong steel exports [2] - Australia maintained its position as the largest supplier, exporting 75,905.1 million tons to China, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, while Brazil's exports were 27,741.6 million tons, up 1.61% [2] Group 2: Soybean Imports - China's soybean imports hit a record high of 111.83 million tons in 2025, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, with Brazil and Argentina showing significant growth [5] - Imports from Brazil reached 82.32 million tons, up 10.3%, while Argentina's imports surged by 92.4% to 7.89 million tons [5] - In contrast, imports from the United States fell to 16.82 million tons, the lowest since the 2018 trade dispute, representing a 24% decline [5] Group 3: Copper Imports - China's copper ore and concentrate imports totaled 30,310.3 million tons in 2025, a 7.9% increase year-on-year, with December imports at 2.704 million tons [6] - The year saw multiple record highs for copper concentrate imports, with April's volume reaching 2.924 million tons, the highest ever recorded [6] Group 4: Crude Oil Imports - China's crude oil imports reached a historical high of 57,772.6 million tons in 2025, a 4.4% increase from the previous year, attributed to rising processing volumes and inventory replenishment [8] - Imports from Russia totaled 10,072.4 million tons, down 7.14%, while imports from Saudi Arabia increased by 2.7% to 8,075.9 million tons [8] Group 5: Fuel Oil Imports - China's fuel oil imports decreased to 21.6 million tons in 2025, a 10.4% decline from the record high of over 24 million tons in 2024, due to lower import rebates affecting independent refiners [9]

Group 1 - The spot copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to a significant premium over future contracts, reaching the highest level since the historic supply tightness in 2021, with a premium of $100 per ton for contracts expiring Wednesday compared to those expiring the next day [2][3] - The recent spike in the backwardation phenomenon indicates rising spot demand, driven by production stoppages and increased copper exports to the U.S., leading to tight supply in other regions [3] - Analysts and traders expect severe structural supply constraints in the copper market, with most monthly price differentials showing backwardation until the end of 2028, potentially depleting global inventories and driving prices higher [4] Group 2 - As of last Friday, three different institutions held at least 30% of the long positions in the January contracts, which could yield over 130,000 tons of copper if held to expiration, exceeding the current spot supply in LME warehouses [3] - The increase in LME copper inventory by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons was attributed to inflows from Asian warehouses and a small inflow to the New Orleans warehouse, despite the price differential volatility having minimal impact on the three-month benchmark contract [4] - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [5]

1月20日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价大幅下跌，在库存水平处于多年高位的情况下，价格 上涨令工业买家望而却步。 伦敦时间1月20日17:00(北京时间1月21日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌212美元，或1.64%，收报每吨 12,753.5美元。前一交易日上涨1.3%。 | | 1月20日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跃帽 | | 三个月期铜 | | 12,753.50 -212.00 -1.64% | | 三个月期铝 | 3,107.50 | -51.00 -1.61% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,173.00 ↓ | -48.50 -1.51% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,028.50 ↓ | -32.00 -1.55% | | 三个月期镇 | 17,614.00 -519.00 -2.86% | | | 三个月期锡 | 49,412.00 ↑ +154.00 ↑ +0.31% | | Hansen补充说："考鉴于当前世界充满诸多不确定性，金属作为硬资产一直需求旺盛。但就目前而言， 黄金仍是更安全的金 ...