Group 1: Copper Market Insights - LME three-month copper price reached a new high of $13,188.5 per ton, up $24.5 or 0.19% on January 14, 2023, following a record high of $13,407 [1] - Over the past 12 months, LME copper prices have increased by 44%, driven by mining disruptions, supply shortage concerns, and potential tariffs affecting metal flows to the U.S. [3] - Analyst Ole Hansen noted that demand for hard assets is remarkable due to concerns over currency depreciation and financial risks, while a closing price below $13,000 could trigger a downward trend in copper prices [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum price decreased by $11.5 or 0.36%, closing at $3,186.0 per ton [7] - LME three-month zinc price increased by $74.5 or 2.33%, closing at $3,276.0 per ton [8] - LME three-month lead price rose by $17 or 0.82%, closing at $2,078.5 per ton [9] - LME three-month nickel price increased by $1,013 or 5.73%, closing at $18,694.0 per ton [10] - LME three-month tin price surged by $3,934 or 7.94%, closing at $53,462.0 per ton, with speculation driving the price increase [6][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Slovak government aims to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant, which was once one of Europe's largest primary aluminum producers, to reduce dependence on non-European imports and address high electricity prices affecting competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Slovalco Plant Details - The Slovalco plant has a maximum capacity of approximately 200,000 tons per year and was closed in August 2022 due to high electricity prices that made production uncompetitive [1]. - The plant's carbon footprint is significantly lower than that of some current aluminum suppliers to Europe, being about one-fifth of theirs [1]. - Local management indicated that production could resume as early as summer if all necessary conditions are met [3]. Group 2: European Aluminum Market Context - Europe's primary aluminum capacity has shrunk to about 1.2 million tons annually after the closure of approximately 1.5 million tons of capacity, with 70%-80% of the annual demand of 6-7 million tons relying on imports, mainly from China and Africa [1]. - Recent supply challenges have arisen from production cuts in Iceland and Mozambique, which are significant aluminum import sources for the EU [4]. Group 3: Government Initiatives and Support - The Slovak government plans to sign a memorandum of understanding with Slovalco to ensure at least 10 years of continued aluminum production, which is the minimum timeframe needed for resuming operations [2]. - The government is advocating for EU-level solutions to address high electricity prices, including potential long-term exemptions from carbon emissions quota payments [2]. Group 4: Market Trends and Pricing - Aluminum prices increased by 11.8% from October to December, with the three-month aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange reaching $3,185 per ton as of January 12, reflecting a rise of $170 since the beginning of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown strong performance recently, reaching new highs before experiencing a slight pullback, influenced by surrounding market trends and domestic stock performance [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent increase in copper prices is supported by a significant drop in LME copper registered warehouse receipts, which decreased by 25,000 tons to 89,725 tons, the lowest level since mid-July [1] - Non-US inventories remain low, providing support for copper prices despite a recent increase in LME copper inventory [1] - The overall market sentiment in domestic futures and stock markets has been optimistic, contributing to the upward movement in copper prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The release of moderate US inflation data for December has led to market speculation that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current interest rates in January, supporting expectations for future rate cuts [1] - The potential for the US to impose tariffs on refined copper continues to create a siphoning effect on global copper supplies, with increased exports of refined copper from China in the past two months [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Jinrui Futures, the underlying logic for copper prices remains largely unchanged, with expectations of tight supply not being reversed, and recent disturbances in copper mining have intensified concerns about supply [1] - The overall trend for copper prices is expected to remain strong with potential fluctuations, although there is a short-term risk related to the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff policy [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a new high due to global supply concerns and escalating geopolitical risks, overshadowing the pressure from a stronger US dollar [1][2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper futures for March closed up 0.85% at 104,120 yuan per ton, earlier hitting a record high of 105,650 yuan [1] - Concerns over copper supply shortages and production disruptions have driven prices higher, alongside potential tariffs affecting copper flows to the US [1] Group 2 - The price of tin has surged, with Shanghai and LME tin prices reaching historical highs, increasing by 23.6% and 30.4% respectively in January [2] - Analysts suggest that the rise in tin prices is driven by speculative trading rather than fundamental changes in demand, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2] - The strong demand for tin is linked to the anticipated growth in metals used for semiconductor manufacturing, benefiting from the AI boom [2] Group 3 - High prices are suppressing downstream consumer demand, indicating potential downward risks as supply growth may exceed expectations [3] - Shanghai nickel futures for February fell by 0.11% to 140,940 yuan per ton, while other metals like aluminum and lead also saw slight declines [3] - LME nickel prices increased by 1.13% to 17,880 dollars per ton, while zinc prices rose by 0.53% to 3,218.50 dollars per ton [3]

Group 1 - LME lead inventory has decreased to 218,925 tons, marking a two-month low [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 7.52% increase in lead inventory to 30,111 tons, which is at a relative low for over a year [1] - Generally, declining inventories in both domestic and international exchanges support lead prices, while increasing inventories may exert downward pressure [3] Group 2 - LME lead inventory data shows a consistent decline from 241,925 tons on December 31, 2025, to 218,925 tons on January 13, 2026 [5] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory has fluctuated, with a notable increase from 28,004 tons on December 31, 2025, to 30,111 tons on January 9, 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a slight increase, driven by the rise in surrounding commodities and the stock market, with the main contract showing a gain of approximately 2% and reaching a new high [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Overnight data revealed a moderate inflation rate in the U.S. for December, leading the market to speculate that the Federal Reserve may remain inactive in January, while overall sentiment supports potential future rate cuts [1] - The optimistic atmosphere in the stock and futures markets is positively influencing copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The tight supply situation in the copper market continues, with low inventories in non-U.S. regions [1] - However, there are concerns regarding weak downstream demand that could impact future price movements [1]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦镍库存明显累积，1月9日库存增至284,790吨，刷新逾 七年新高，本周库存有所回落，最新库存水平为284,562吨。 2023年以来LME和上期所镍库存对比 以下为2025年12月以来LME和上期所镍库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/1/12 | 284, 562 | | | 2026/1/9 | 284, 790 | 46, 650 | | 2026/1/8 | 276, 300 | | | 2026/1/7 | 275, 634 | | | 2026/1/6 | 255, 546 | | | 2026/1/5 | 255, 354 | | | 2026/1/2 | 255, 282 | | | 2025/12/31 | 255, 162 | 45, 544 | | 2025/12/30 | 255, 186 | | | 2025/12/29 | 255, 186 | | | 2025/12/26 | | 44, 454 | | 2025/12/24 | 255, 696 | | ...

Group 1 - The Chilean National Mining Association (Sonami) forecasts that copper production in Chile will reach between 5.5 to 5.7 million tons by 2026, an increase from the previous estimate of 5.4 million tons [2] - Sonami's president, Jorge Riesco, expressed optimism about the industry's outlook despite ongoing operational challenges, highlighting positive financial and commercial data [2] - The average copper price for this year is projected to be $4.50 per pound, with an estimated investment of $26.8 billion in the industry from 2025 to 2029 [2] Group 2 - Chile is the largest copper producer in the world [3] Group 3 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources in the upstream, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger US dollar, but supply concerns and speculative interest limited the drop in prices [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market Analysis - On January 13, LME three-month copper fell by $45.5, or 0.34%, closing at $13,164.0 per ton [1][2]. - Over the past 12 months, LME copper has surged by 45%, reaching a record high of $13,387.50 last week [5]. - Concerns about supply disruptions in copper mining and expectations of a supply shortage this year have contributed to the price increase [5]. - The premium for LME spot copper over the three-month contract rose to $64 per ton, the highest in a month, compared to just $3 a week prior [5]. Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $13, or 0.41%, closing at $3,197.5 per ton [6]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $14.5, or 0.45%, closing at $3,201.5 per ton [7]. - LME three-month lead rose by $8.5, or 0.41%, closing at $2,061.5 per ton [8]. - LME three-month nickel fell by $207, or 1.16%, closing at $17,681.0 per ton [9]. - LME three-month tin increased by $1,561, or 3.25%, closing at $49,528.0 per ton [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index strengthened, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4]. - The US Consumer Price Index for December rose by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with economists' expectations and significantly above the Federal Reserve's target [3][5]. - The National Mining Association of Chile (Sonami) projected that Chile's copper production will range between 5.5 to 5.7 million tons by 2026, up from last year's estimate of 5.4 million tons [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the inventory changes in various metals at LME, highlighting fluctuations in stock levels and their implications for market dynamics [1][3][5][9][11]. Group 2 - Copper inventory increased by 4,325 tons to a total of 141,550 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 89,725 tons and a cancellation ratio of 36.61% [3]. - Aluminum inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 494,000 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 446,575 tons and a cancellation ratio of 9.60% [5]. - Zinc inventory rose by 100 tons to 106,900 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 98,900 tons and a cancellation ratio of 7.48% [9]. - Tin inventory increased by 25 tons to 5,930 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 5,785 tons and a cancellation ratio of 2.45% [11]. - Lead inventory decreased by 2,525 tons to 218,925 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 163,375 tons and a cancellation ratio of 25.37% [7].