Group 1 - Codelco's copper production for 2025 is projected to be 1.332 million tons, a slight increase from 1.328 million tons in 2024, with an increase of 4,000 tons [2] - Codelco's chairman, Maximo Pacheco, confirmed the production increase during an interview, stating it is good news for the country [2] - The company has faced challenges in increasing production due to declining ore grades and operational issues, including a fatal accident at its flagship mine, El Teniente, in July last year [2] Group 2 - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [2]

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - LME copper prices surpassed $13,000 per ton for the first time due to a strike at a copper mine in Chile, raising supply concerns and expectations of a supply shortfall [1] - On January 5, LME three-month copper rose by $522, or 4.19%, closing at $12,991.5 per ton, with an intraday high of $13,045, marking a new record [1][2] - Comex copper surged 4.6% to $5.9005 per pound, equivalent to $13,008 per ton, also reaching a historical high [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile, which is expected to produce between 29,000 and 32,000 tons, contributes to heightened supply shortage concerns despite being a small fraction of the global copper output [3] - UBS analysts project a copper demand growth of approximately 3% by 2026, while refined copper supply is expected to grow by less than 1%, leading to a potential shortfall of 300,000 to 400,000 tons, which may expand to about 500,000 tons by 2027 [3] - LME copper inventories have decreased by 55% since late August, currently standing at 142,550 tons, with most copper leaving the LME system heading to the U.S. [3] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $70, or 2.32%, closing at $3,085.5 per ton, reaching its highest level since April 2022 due to supply shortage concerns [3] - LME three-month tin rose by $2,057, or 5.09%, closing at $42,466 per ton, attributed to short covering in a low-volume market [4] Group 4: Market Influences - The pricing of LME metals has historically been influenced by capital expenditures in China, but there is a growing need to consider capital expenditures in regions like Indonesia [4]

| 星期一 | 星期二 D | 星期三 | 星期四 | 星期五 | 星期六 | 星期日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 29 | 30 | 31 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | | CFTC持仓(因假期推迟) | LME持仓 | 智利铜出口收入 | | CFTC持仓 | | | | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | | LME月度库存 | LME持仓 | 中国铜进口/铝出口 | | CFTC持仓 | | | | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | | 中国十种金属和原铝产量 | IAI全球原铝产量 LME持仓 | WBMS月报 ILZSG月报 | | CFTC持仓 | | | | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 01 | | | 香港流入内地黄金 | | | 智利月度铜产量 | | | | | LME持仓 | | | CFTC持仓 | | | （文华综合） 以下为金 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices surged at the beginning of the year due to supply concerns stemming from a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile, with SHFE copper closing up 2.68% at 101,350 yuan per ton and LME copper rising 2.75% to $12,813 per ton [1] - The strike, resulting from failed negotiations over a new labor contract, has intensified supply worries for 2026, contributing to a historical high in copper prices over the past year [1] Group 2: Other Metals - Aluminum opened the year strongly, with SHFE aluminum closing up 3.98% at 23,645 yuan per ton and LME aluminum increasing by 1.28% to $3,054 per ton [3][4] - Tin prices also saw significant gains, with SHFE tin rising 2.45% to 334,370 yuan per ton and LME tin up 3.42% to $41,790 per ton [5] - Zinc and lead prices increased as well, with SHFE zinc up 2.25% to 23,820 yuan per ton and SHFE lead rising 0.67% to 17,395 yuan per ton [5]

沪铜早间小幅高开，日内行情震荡走高，收盘上涨2.68%。金属市场多头氛围笼罩，铜市矿紧局面难 改，铜价重回十万关口上方，国内社会库存继续累积，但现货转为升水局面， 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，展望后市，前期上行主要反映预期紧张，目前非美地区尚未兑现，预期 边际缓和但方向未改变，且一季度难言证伪，预计铜价保持宽幅波动。 （文华综合） 由于铜价重心高企，此前国内下游需求表现不佳，社会库存连连累积，现货维持大幅贴水局面，周初国 内社库累积势头维持，不过今日国内铜现货转为升水局面。据smm分析，有库存贸易商考虑电解铜现货 市场情况以及各自资金成本，挺价惜售。结合日内市场采购情绪较节前略微回升，促进现货成交，总体 现货升贴水上抬，由贴转升。 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费延续承压走弱姿态，市场交易情绪低迷并未有明显改善。月初海外再传供应 扰动，据悉在智利北部的Capstone Copper公司旗下Mantoverde铜金矿的数百名矿工举行罢工，因主要工 会与公司之间就新的劳动合同的谈判破裂，矿紧担忧继续为铜价提供支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global nickel market is entering 2026 with mixed signals, as prices remain firm due to anticipated supply tightening from Indonesia, but broader industry forecasts indicate structural oversupply that may limit sustained price increases [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Nickel futures prices reached $16,765 per ton as of the week ending January 2, marking a nearly 7% weekly increase, driven more by policy sentiment than changes in demand fundamentals [1] - A key question remains whether global nickel supply and demand can achieve balance as the market moves forward into 2026 [1] Group 2: Indonesian Policy Uncertainty - Indonesia is considering reducing its 2026 nickel ore production quota to approximately 250 million wet tons, significantly lower than the 379 million wet tons target for 2025, which has boosted recent price sentiment [2] - However, market participants note that the finalization of these quotas may take time, and the implementation risks remain high, viewing the proposed cuts as more of a sentiment support rather than a substantial tightening of supply [2] Group 3: Supply Overhang from NPI Expansion - Despite policy discussions, Indonesia's nickel supply surplus is primarily supported by rapid capacity expansion in nickel pig iron (NPI) and intermediate products [3] - Industrial centers like Morowali and Weda Bay continue to expand and optimize existing smelting capacities, ensuring ample nickel supply and exacerbating the structural oversupply situation [3] Group 4: Price Outlook and Forecasts - Major financial institutions maintain a cautious outlook on nickel prices amid oversupply conditions [4] - The World Bank forecasts nickel prices to be around $15,500 per ton in 2026, with a slight increase to $16,000 per ton in 2027 [5] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that profits of Indonesian producers are a key volatility factor, predicting prices will drop to $14,500 per ton by the end of 2026 [6] - Nornickel predicts a surplus of approximately 275,000 tons in 2026, reinforcing expectations of continued price pressure, while ING forecasts average prices to remain around $15,250 per ton due to high inventories and sluggish demand [7] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - Although discussions around Indonesian policies inject volatility and short-term support for nickel prices, the overall outlook for 2026 remains influenced by structural oversupply [8] - Unless there is a significant slowdown in supply growth or an acceleration in demand from the stainless steel and battery sectors, nickel prices are likely to remain range-bound with limited upside potential [8]

1月5日（周一），据当地媒体Bisnis.com周一报道，印尼矿业部表示，在政府审核矿企年度产量配额计 划期间，矿企可在第一季度完成其拟议的2026年产量的25%。该报道援引了一封部长的信件内容。 在矿产丰富的印尼，所有矿企都必须向政府提交一份年度生产计划，被称为RKAB，以获得政府的批 准，确定他们每年可以生产多少。 从2026年期，印尼将RKABs审批期限从"三年一审"改回"一年一审"，政府已下令矿企重新申请之前发放 的2026年和2027年配额。 根据10月份公布的部委规定，在新配额的审批过程中，矿企可以参考之前批准的2026年配额，直到2026 年3月底，以决定生产多少。 配额期限的缩短给行业造成了不确定性，镍矿商淡水河谷印尼公司（Vale Indonesia）在上周五表示，暂 停采矿活动，因为他们的RKAB尚未获得批准。 矿业部副部长Yuliot Tanjung周五表示，相关审批"目前正在整合当中"，镍产量配额将进行调整，以满足 国内冶炼厂的需求。 矿业部长Bahlil Lahadalia表示，政府计划今年大幅减少矿业产量配额以支撑价格，包括一直低迷的煤炭 价格。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a significant price surge, driven by favorable domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, despite some short-term demand weakness and supply constraints [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Macro Factors - Recent domestic policies, including the 2026 national subsidy plan and the promotion of high-quality electricity grid development, are expected to boost aluminum demand [1]. - The automotive sector is seeing a rebound in orders and production due to new model launches and upcoming replacement subsidy policies, which supports aluminum demand [4]. Group 2: International Macro Factors - The divergence in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicates ongoing market speculation regarding interest rate changes, which may influence commodity prices, including aluminum [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, have raised concerns about global trade and supply chain stability, potentially impacting aluminum supply [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper-aluminum ratio has significantly exceeded historical norms, leading to increased speculation in the aluminum market as investors anticipate a correction [3]. - Despite a seasonal decline in demand, the automotive sector and the rapid expansion of energy storage systems are expected to provide a counterbalance to the overall weakness in aluminum consumption [4][5]. - Current aluminum production capacity is constrained, limiting supply growth, while recent disruptions in overseas supply have further tightened the market [4][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - While short-term demand may be weak, the long-term outlook for aluminum remains positive due to stable growth in transportation and energy storage sectors, as well as potential shifts in material usage from copper to aluminum [5][6]. - The financial attributes of aluminum are currently driving prices more than its commodity attributes, with significant capital inflow into the aluminum market post-holiday [5].

Group 1 - The overall inventory levels for various metals have shown a mixed trend, with copper and aluminum inventories decreasing, while lead and zinc inventories remain stable [1][4][5][9][11] - Copper inventory decreased by 2,775 tons, representing a 1.91% decline, bringing the total to 142,550 tons [1][4] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, a 0.49% drop, resulting in a total of 506,750 tons [1][5] Group 2 - The registered warrants for copper are at 109,900 tons, with a decrease of 0.59%, while the canceled warrants decreased by 6.11% to 32,650 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 22.90% [2][4] - For aluminum, registered warrants stand at 447,475 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 11.70% after a 4.05% decrease in canceled warrants [2][5] - Zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 105,850 tons, with registered warrants at 97,925 tons and a cancellation ratio of 7.49% [9]

Group 1: Copper Market - Shanghai copper futures opened strongly in 2026, with the main contract rising by 1.89% to 100,570 yuan per ton, returning above the 100,000 yuan mark [1] - London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper increased by 2.63% to $12,797 per ton, reaching a peak of $12,960, close to last year's record high [1] - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in northern Chile has intensified supply concerns, supporting copper prices amid previous mine disruptions and regional turmoil caused by U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2: Other Metals Performance - Most base metals strengthened on the first trading day of 2026, with aluminum prices also rising significantly [2] - Shanghai aluminum increased by 3.45% to 23,525 yuan per ton, reaching a four-year high of 23,780 yuan during trading [2] - LME three-month aluminum rose by 1.24% to $3,053 per ton, peaking at $3,069, marking a three-and-a-half-year high [2] - Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 2.36% to 23,845 yuan per ton, while LME three-month zinc increased by 1.46% to $3,172.5 [3] - Shanghai lead main contract increased by 0.81% to 17,420 yuan per ton, and LME three-month lead rose by 0.57% to $2,018 [4] - Shanghai nickel main contract rose by 0.38% to 133,850 yuan per ton, while LME three-month nickel fell by 0.12% to $16,800 [5]