Global Economic Overview - In 2025, global trade tensions intensified, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times during the year, while an AI boom swept across the globe amid escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.41% for the year, surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high since 2015 [1] - The Chinese yuan appreciated by 4.43% throughout 2025, achieving its largest annual increase in five years [1] - The yield on China's 10-year government bonds increased by approximately 20 basis points, while the yields on 30-year and 50-year bonds rose by about 40 and 50 basis points, respectively [1] Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals experienced significant gains in 2025, with gold and silver prices reaching record highs; Shanghai gold hit 1024 yuan, and Shanghai silver reached 19998 yuan [3] - Silver outperformed gold with a remarkable annual increase of 128.57%, while gold rose by 58.28% [3] - The price surge was supported by trade wars, U.S. interest rate cuts, and a weakening dollar, alongside strong safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties [3][4] Base Metals Performance - Base metals saw a robust performance in 2025, with Shanghai copper achieving a 33.17% annual increase, marking its largest annual gain since 2009 [5] - Shanghai copper prices reached a record high of 102660 yuan, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply risks [5] - Tin and aluminum also performed well, with tin rising by 31.88% and aluminum increasing by 15.90% due to supply constraints [5] Lithium Carbonate Trends - Lithium carbonate prices experienced a "V"-shaped recovery in 2025, with an overall increase of 58% for the year [6] - The first half of the year saw prices decline due to oversupply, but a tightening of regulations and increased demand in the second half led to a significant price rebound [6] - By year-end, lithium carbonate prices peaked at 135,000 yuan, driven by a surge in demand from the energy storage market and new energy vehicles [6] Steel Industry Dynamics - The steel industry in China continued to undergo a deep adjustment cycle in 2025, with structural demand differentiation evident [7] - High-end manufacturing steel demand grew, while the real estate sector remained weak, impacting construction steel demand [7][8] - Despite a slight recovery in profitability due to lower coal prices and export support, the overall steel market faced challenges, with significant price volatility [7][8] Agricultural Commodities Overview - In 2025, U.S. soybean prices rose by 3.7%, marking the first increase in three years, primarily driven by improved export prospects following a trade agreement with China [9][10] - Domestic soybean meal and oil prices remained under pressure due to high inventories and abundant global supply, limiting upward price movement [9][10] Oil Market Trends - International oil prices experienced significant declines in 2025, with U.S. crude oil falling over 20% and Brent crude dropping more than 18% [11] - The overall weak trend was influenced by oversupply, economic pressures, and easing geopolitical risks, despite occasional price spikes due to conflicts [11] Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector index fell over 10% in 2025, marking the largest annual decline in a decade, with several key products hitting historical lows [12] - Supply pressures and weak demand contributed to the downturn, although some segments like polyester showed relative resilience [12]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - In 2025, the three major U.S. stock indices achieved double-digit gains, marking the third consecutive year of increases, driven by tariff uncertainties and excitement around AI stocks [3][4] - The S&P 500 index rose by 16.39%, the Nasdaq by 20.36%, and the Dow Jones by 12.97% [4] Group 2: Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar index fell by over 9% in 2025, marking the largest annual decline since 2017, influenced by interest rate cuts and trade policy uncertainties under President Trump [5] - The euro appreciated by over 13% against the dollar during the same period [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve agreed to cut interest rates after extensive discussions on economic risks, with expectations of only one more rate cut in the following year [6][7] Group 4: Precious Metals Performance - Gold experienced its largest annual increase in 46 years, rising approximately 64%, while silver surged by about 147%, marking its strongest annual performance ever [8] - Platinum and palladium also saw significant gains, with platinum increasing over 122% and palladium rising more than 75% [8] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - LME copper prices rose by 42%, achieving the largest annual increase in 16 years, driven by supply concerns and a weaker dollar [9] - CBOT soybeans recorded their first annual gain in three years, increasing nearly 4% due to China's return to the U.S. market [10] - Oil prices fell nearly 20%, marking the largest annual decline since 2020, influenced by oversupply expectations and geopolitical tensions [11] Group 6: Agricultural Commodities - ICE cotton futures fell by 6% for the fourth consecutive year due to ample global supply and trade uncertainties [12] - ICE raw sugar prices dropped by 22% in 2025, primarily due to increased production leading to a global supply surplus [13]

（文华综合） 早间有色金属多偏强运行，沪锌和沪铜走势也受带动，目前涨幅都在2%附近，其中沪铜重返十万关口 上方。节后首个交易日，金属市场氛围向暖，铜锌供需面的共同点是都呈现矿紧局面，仍为期价提供较 强支撑。 ...

Group 1 - Analysts are optimistic about copper prices, anticipating a significant increase due to rising demand for electrification, particularly in artificial intelligence applications [1] - The US Copper Index ETF (CPER) is expected to see COMEX futures contracts prices exceed $6 [1] - Major copper producers like Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper are expected to benefit from this trend, contrasting with gold, which is viewed as a stable investment [1] Group 2 - The US Copper Index ETF has a market capitalization of approximately $421.46 million, providing investors access to the copper market without direct futures trading [1] - CPER is traded on the ARCA exchange with a beta coefficient of 0.14, indicating lower volatility compared to the overall market [1] - Over the past year, CPER's price change has been 38.15%, reflecting growing interest in copper as a strategic commodity [1]

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 金屋 | 库存 | 注册仓单 | 变动 | 注销仓单 变动 | 注销占比 | FBRK | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 원리 | 145,325 | 110,550 J | -0.05% | 34,775 ↓ -5.57% | 23.93% | 24.98% | | 铝 | 509,250 | 447,475 | ו 0.00% | 61,775 -3,89% | 12.13% | 12.56% | | 蚌 | 106,325 | | 97,925 ↓ -0.56% | 8,400 ↓ -8.20% | 7.90% | 8.50% | | 量 | 255,282 | | 242,862 ↑ +0.16% | 12,420 ↓ -2.04% | 4.87% | 4.97% | | 品 | 239.325 | | 162,500 ↑ +2.15% | 76,825 - - 7.27% | 32.10% | 34.25% | | 易 | 5.415 | 5.255 | - 0.00% | 160 -3.03% | 2.95% ...

LME三个月期铜上涨46.5美元，或0.37%，收报每吨12,469.5美元。期铜是LME市场2025年表现最佳的 金属，年涨幅达42%，在12月29日创下每吨12,960美元的历史新高。 国家统计局周三公布数据显示，12月份中国制造业PMI为50.1%，4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。在调查 的21个行业中有16个行业PMI较上月回升，相关企业生产经营情况有所改善。 LME三个月期铝上涨20.5美元，或0.68%，收报每吨3,015.5美元。 由于供应过剩，镍价数月徘徊在低位，但在印尼提议2026年将矿石产量削减三分之一后，镍价在12月上 涨了12.3%。矿业部长Bahlil Lahadalia本周表示，政府将减少矿业产量配额以支撑大宗商品价格。 交易所数据显示，一个实体持有LME镍仓单的30%至40%，而LME的期货持仓集中度报告显示，1月镍 合约存在显著多头头寸，相当于至少40%的未平仓合约。 铝LME铝库存为509,250吨，创10月29日以来的最低水平。 1月2日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期镍升至14个月以来最高水平，期铝在新年伊始便突破了 3,000美元大关，创下2022年以来的新高。 伦敦时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices experienced a decline on December 31, 2025, after reaching a record high earlier in the week, marking the largest annual increase in 16 years [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market Performance - On December 31, LME three-month copper fell by $135.5, or 1.08%, closing at $12,423.0 per ton, after hitting a record high of $12,960 earlier in the week [1][2]. - In 2025, copper prices cumulatively increased by 41.7%, driven by supply concerns due to disruptions in mining activities [3]. Group 2: Market Influences - A weaker dollar has made commodities priced in dollars cheaper for investors holding other currencies, contributing to speculative buying driven by expectations of increased demand from the AI boom and energy transition [3]. - Analysts expect that the CME's premium over LME will continue to attract copper into U.S. inventories until a decision on tariffs is made by mid-2026, tightening supply in traditional consumption centers [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Chile's copper production in November fell by 7.18% year-on-year to 451,815 tons, indicating potential supply constraints [4]. - China's copper demand remains higher than expected, with imports from January to November only declining by 3% year-on-year [3].

Group 1 - Chile's copper production in November decreased by 7.18% year-on-year, totaling 451,815 tons [2] - Chile is the world's largest copper producer, highlighting its significant role in the global copper market [2] - The manufacturing output in Chile also fell by 1.3% year-on-year in November [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices experienced a slight decline but are expected to record the largest annual gain since 2009 in 2025, driven by supply concerns and demand growth from AI and energy sectors [1] - Year-to-date, copper prices have surged over 42% due to uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and production disruptions at mines [1] - Three-month copper futures fell by 0.49% to $12,497 per ton, while the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 0.84% to 98,240 yuan per ton, with a cumulative increase of 33.27% this year [1] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventories have reached a historical high of 490,722 tons, increasing by 426.75% year-to-date, while LME copper inventories have decreased by 44.91% to 149,475 tons [2] - Tin is projected to have the second-largest annual gain among base metals, with three-month tin futures down 1.67% but expected to record a 42% annual increase [2] Group 3 - Aluminum is identified as a winner among base metals this year, with LME three-month aluminum rising by 0.44% and expected to achieve over a 17% annual gain [3] - Nickel prices are anticipated to record an annual gain for the first time since 2023, with three-month nickel futures down 1.35% but projected to have over an 8% annual increase [3] Group 4 - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month zinc down 0.24% and three-month lead up 0.22% [4]

Group 1 - Copper prices opened slightly higher in the morning, with an increase of over 2%, but closed with a narrower gain of 0.84% due to a pullback after initial gains [1] - Domestic policy support has boosted expectations for copper demand, while a decline in precious metals has exerted some downward pressure on copper prices [1] - The December manufacturing PMI in China returned to the expansion zone, indicating an overall recovery in economic sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes were relatively neutral, with limited guidance for the market, and the dollar index saw a slight increase [2] - The Fed is expected to conduct over $200 billion in reserve management bond purchases in the next 12 months to alleviate liquidity demands at the end of the quarter [2] - Global electrification and the AI technology revolution are anticipated to create strong growth opportunities for copper demand, despite slow recovery in global mining production [2]