文 | 盘古智库 一、引言 算力被广泛认为是支撑国家数字经济发展的关键基础设施，同时也是推动新质生产力发展的核心动力。 然而，中国目前算力规模与能耗总量是多少，不同研究机构和媒体的统计差异较大。 报告旨在建立多层次的统计框架，明确算力的定义、分类和统计范围，确定算力统计标准和范围，通过 统一的统计标准和严谨的测算逻辑，厘清现实状况，为人工智能产业发展提供科学依据。盘古智库公益 课题组围绕中国算力规模与能耗现状进行系统研究，并对2030年的发展趋势作出预测。 二、报告研究方法和内容 报告对算力类型和数据中心的类型进行的分类，重点关注智能算力的统计与计算。为保证数据可比性， 统一采用 FP16 精度进行测算，同时兼顾 FP8 的倍数关系。采用科学的统计方法包括：1.芯片出货量推 算。结合 GPU、AI 芯片数量及单卡性能。2.服务器与机柜折算。依据机架数、服务器配置推算算力总 量。3.功率反推。通过设备功耗与能效参数估算算力规模等多维度的方法交叉验证提高了测算的科学性 和准确性。并且在相关统计方法上进行了一定的优化。 三、报告结论与说明 报告通过交叉验证和多维度比对发现，若按国家公布的830万个标准机柜测算，其理 ...

Group 1 - China aims to achieve a total installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching 3.6 billion kilowatts by 2035, which is over six times the capacity in 2020 [3] - The new national contributions include a target for non-fossil energy consumption to account for over 30% of total energy consumption [3] - The forest stock volume is targeted to exceed 24 billion cubic meters by 2035 [3] Group 2 - Four departments in China have issued guidelines to promote the development of a high-quality energy equipment system, aiming for significant advancements in the energy equipment industry by 2030 [4] - The guidelines emphasize the need for long-life, wide-temperature, low-degradation lithium batteries, sodium batteries, and solid-state batteries [4] - The focus is also on developing low-cost, long-duration flow battery systems and enhancing the safety performance of energy storage batteries [4] Group 3 - The steel industry is set to achieve an average annual growth of around 4% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on optimizing industrial structure and enhancing green and digital development [5] - The plan includes ten specific measures across five areas, such as precise control of production capacity and promoting quality upgrades of bulk products [5] Group 4 - The petrochemical industry aims for an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on enhancing technological innovation and achieving collaborative benefits in pollution reduction and carbon reduction [6] - The plan emphasizes the transition of chemical parks from standard construction to high-quality development [6] Group 5 - Li Auto and battery giant Xinwanda plan to establish a joint venture for the production and sale of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, with each holding a 50% stake [7] - This follows a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL to collaborate on battery safety and ultra-fast charging technology [7] Group 6 - Four exchanges in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have signed a memorandum to promote the development of the carbon market and green finance ecosystem [8] - The collaboration aims to enhance professional capabilities in carbon market operations and green finance [8] Group 7 - Trina Solar's energy storage division has undergone management changes, with a new president appointed to focus on energy storage while the previous president shifts focus to the solar module sector [9] - Trina Solar aims for energy storage shipments to exceed 8 GWh by 2025, with a target of maintaining over 50% year-on-year growth in 2026 [9] Group 8 - China's first green energy supply railway project has been launched, integrating renewable energy and storage into the railway power supply system [10] - The project is expected to provide an average of 7.39 million kilowatt-hours of green electricity annually, saving 2,218.3 tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 5,804.53 tons [10]

AI生成 "通过元脑HC1000超扩展AI服务器，可实现将原先每百万token超过10元钱，下降到仅1元钱的成 本。"浪潮信息首席AI战略官刘军与笔者分享了浪潮信息结合用户需求，将算力成本"打下去"的最新解 决方案。 除了成本之外，当AI从大模型进入Agent时代，甚至从AGI向着ASI迈进的过程中，实现多Agent协同的 目标，如何降低响应速度是不可避免的问题，刘军也在与笔者的交流中，分享了浪潮信息在降低通信延 迟方面的AI算力布局，他表示，通过浪潮信息元脑SD200超节点AI服务器，可将原本国内最低15ms左 右的延迟，下降到8.9ms左右。 速度决定了ASI能否"照进现实" 随着Scaling Law持续推动模型能力跃升，以DeepSeek为代表的开源模型极大的降低了创新门槛，加速 智能体产业化的到来。智能体产业化的核心三要素是能力、速度和成本。其中模型能力决定了智能体的 应用上限，交互速度决定了智能体的商业价值，token成本决定了智能体的盈利能力。 "速度，是智能体商业化应用落地的第一要义。"这是在与刘军交流过程中，他反复强调的观点。在智能 体商业化应用落地过程中，交互速度是决定其能否在真实场景中发 ...

文 | 长青研究社 上海宝山大华校区里，一群平均年龄60岁的阿姨们正在跟着节拍练习非洲鼓，节奏感丝毫不输年轻人。很难想象，这里曾经是昂立教育的K12培训教室， 如今却变成了银发族的"快乐公社"。 这个场景充满了戏剧性——一个40年来专注培养孩子的教育巨头，如今却要开始"培养"老人。从3岁到80岁，昂立教育试图覆盖人的整个生命周期。 这不是转型，这是豪赌。 从"教小孩"到"陪老人"：昂立的破圈逻辑 要理解昂立为什么要杀入银发市场，先看看它2024年的财报。 2024年，昂立教育营收12.3亿元，同比增长27.32%；净亏损4858.47万元，同比减亏1.39亿元。乍看之下，营收增长近三成，似乎一切都在好转。 但细看业务结构，问题就来了： 青少儿素质教育营收5.98亿元，占比48.6%，同比增长36.07%；高中业务营收3.88亿元，占比31.5%，同比增长29.57%。这两大主营业务贡献了近80%的营 收，但都面临一个共同的天花板——人口出生率下降。 国家统计局数据显示，中国出生人口从2017年的1723万下降到2023年的902万，减少了近一半。昂立的核心客群正在急剧萎缩。 更让人担忧的是成本结构：营业成本6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of the non-ferrous metals sector is highlighted, particularly with the rise of cobalt and lithium prices, benefiting companies like Huayou Cobalt [1][2]. Market Performance - Huayou Cobalt's stock has shown significant resilience, with a price increase of 18.9% since September, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.77% [1]. - Over the past three months, Huayou Cobalt's stock price surged by 54.32%, leading to a market capitalization of 105.4 billion yuan [1][8]. Company Background - Huayou Cobalt was established in 2002, initially focusing on cobalt resources, and has since expanded its operations internationally, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][4]. - The company has undergone significant transformations, evolving from a resource seller to an integrated player in the resource-refining-sales chain [4]. Cyclical Nature of the Industry - The non-ferrous metals industry, including cobalt and nickel, is characterized by strong cyclical trends, with Huayou Cobalt experiencing three notable cycles of boom and bust [5][6]. - The first cycle (2015-2017) saw cobalt prices soar due to demand from the smartphone and electronics sectors, followed by a sharp decline [5]. - The second cycle (2019-2022) was marked by a significant drop in cobalt prices due to adjustments in the new energy battery industry, leading to a drastic reduction in Huayou's profits [5]. - The third cycle began in 2023, with an oversupply in the market impacting Huayou's performance [6]. Recent Performance and Recovery - In the first half of 2023, Huayou Cobalt reported revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [7][8]. - This performance marks the company's best half-year results in recent years, driven by the recovery in cobalt and nickel prices [8]. Price Trends and Future Outlook - Cobalt prices have rebounded from a low of $9.95 per pound earlier in the year, influenced by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [9]. - Nickel, which constitutes a significant portion of Huayou's revenue, has also shown signs of recovery due to supply restrictions and rising production costs [10]. - The development of solid-state battery technology is expected to further boost nickel demand, positioning Huayou Cobalt favorably for future growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - Wankang Technology has officially submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming for a dual listing in both A-share and H-share markets, amidst a competitive landscape in the AI industry [2][3]. Company Overview - Wankang Technology is a global AIGC digital creative software provider, focusing on video creative products and has developed a multimedia model to support its three main product lines: drawing creativity, video creativity, and document creativity [4][6]. - The company boasts a global user base, with products available in over 200 countries and regions, and active users exceeding 2 billion [6]. Market Performance - Despite a strong global presence, Wankang Technology has faced challenges in user growth, particularly against competitors like Adobe and ByteDance in overseas markets, and domestic rivals such as Jianying and Kuaiying [6][10]. - The average monthly active users slightly decreased from 67.4 million in 2023 to 67.3 million in 2024, before recovering to 68.7 million in the first half of 2025 [7]. Financial Performance - Revenue figures for Wankang Technology from 2022 to 2025 show fluctuations, with revenues of 1.18 billion RMB in 2022, 1.48 billion RMB in 2023, and a projected 1.44 billion RMB in 2024 [10][11]. - The company has experienced a decline in net profit, with losses reported in 2024 and the first half of 2025, indicating a shift from profit to loss during these periods [10][12]. Cost Structure - Wankang Technology has a high gross margin of 92.4% in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than its competitors, but struggles with high marketing, management, and R&D costs, leading to low net profits [12][14]. - Marketing expenses accounted for over 60% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting the company's aggressive customer acquisition strategy in a competitive market [13][14]. Industry Context - The global AIGC video creative software market is projected to grow from approximately 800 million USD in 2020 to about 10.5 billion USD by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 90.3% [9]. - Despite the industry's growth, Wankang Technology's performance has not aligned with market trends, highlighting the challenges of converting high gross margins into sustainable profits [10][12].

文 | 花姐谈花花世界 网上流传着一段话，80后是最苦逼的一代，毕业时工作难找，买房时房价飞涨。35岁时纷纷失业，40岁 时在家啃老。 80、90后又是相对幸福的一代，他们是独生子女，在父母的帮衬下，他们买房买车，有些人甚至可以靠 父母的退休金生活，不为赚钱发愁。 不那么焦虑，是很多一二线城市80后、90后对于失业的心态。"反正工作也难找，不如在家宅一宅。"随 着时间的推移，有些人宅成了米虫，有些人宅出些创业新思路。 "不正经也不怎么赚钱，但做着很快乐，宅得很幸福。"从月薪两三万到月入几千，有些80、90后并没有 为五斗米折腰，不会去做外卖骑手、顺风车司机这样的苦差事，而是保持着生活品质，从各种平台中捕 获着"新商机"，育成着"新职业"。 重生之我当上了潮玩"二创师" 小星常被妈妈评价为"长不大的孩子"。收集潮玩大概有10年时间了，从暴力熊、迪士尼，到molly、 labubu，小星家有几百个娃娃。 小星算是"月光族"，每月的工资都上交给了潮玩店，所以失业这件事对她影响挺大，正常生活都要靠老 公和亲爹"救济"。 小星一直在广告公司做设计，32岁时被公司优化了，找了几个月没找到工作，靠接一些私活，每月有三 四千 ...

Core Insights - The global stablecoin market is experiencing a dichotomy, with regulatory crackdowns in China contrasting with aggressive developments in international markets, such as Tether's $500 billion valuation financing and the European banking consortium's plans for a euro stablecoin [2][3] - The emergence of stablecoins reflects a broader narrative of capital flow expansion and the restructuring of financial power in the digital age, posing systemic risks despite their intended stability [4][6] Regulatory Developments - China is using Hong Kong as a testing ground for compliant stablecoin development while pushing for the internationalization of the digital yuan, indicating a strategic response to perceived threats to national currency sovereignty [3][17] - The U.S. has accelerated stablecoin legislation through the GENIUS Act, aiming to solidify the dollar's dominance and create a mechanism for global users to indirectly purchase U.S. debt [13][14] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market has seen explosive growth, with total market capitalization increasing from $5 billion in 2019 to approximately $300 billion in 2023, highlighting a 45-fold increase over six years [7][11] - Major stablecoins like USDT and USDC dominate the market, accounting for over 90% of total stablecoin market capitalization, with USDT being the most widely used [11][12] Risk Factors - Concerns about the transparency and backing of stablecoins, particularly Tether, have been raised, with warnings from the Bank for International Settlements regarding their potential to facilitate illegal activities [6][7] - The lack of effective regulatory frameworks and the potential for market panic during liquidity crises pose significant risks to the stability of the stablecoin ecosystem [7][10] Future Outlook - The regulatory landscape is evolving, with new frameworks like Hong Kong's stringent stablecoin regulations and the EU's MiCA legislation indicating a shift towards compliance and oversight [9][10] - The competition for stablecoin dominance is likely to intensify, with emerging markets exploring alternatives to the dollar and the potential for a diversified international monetary system [15][18]

图片来源：地平线 继与哈啰出行达成合作，地平线在Robotaxi领域又有新动作。 9月26日，地平线发布融资公告称，计划筹集约58亿港元。 地平线通过 "先旧后新" 配股模式募资，计划发行 6.39 亿股新股（占当前总股本 4.6%），配售价 9.99 港元 / 股，较前一日收盘价10.60 港元折让 5.75%。最终计划募资总金额约为63.4亿港元，扣除费用后， 地平线净得约58亿港元，是其近年规模最大的单次融资之一。 所谓 "先旧后新"，即现有大股东先向市场投资者转让部分持股，再用转让资金同步认购公司新发行的 同等数量股票 —— 既避免新增股份对现有股东股权的过度稀释，又快速引入外部资本，同时通过小幅 折让吸引投资者，兼顾 "融资效率" 与 "股价稳定"。 同时，公司承诺，未来90天内，不会再额外发新股或做类似融资动作，以免对股价造成太大冲击。 在介绍本次募资资金用途时，地平线明确提到投资新领域，比如与Robotaxi相关的计划。 除了投资新领域（Robotaxi）之外，这笔资金还要用来拓展海外业务（之前的融资主要用于国内扩 张）；投入研发，提升技术，尤其是中高阶辅助驾驶解决方案；以及战略投资上下游的合作 ...

Core Insights - OpenAI has signed a five-year partnership with Oracle worth up to $300 billion, significantly impacting Oracle's stock price and market capitalization [1] - The deal raises questions about the actual feasibility of such a high-value agreement and reflects a shift in OpenAI's identity from a pure tech innovator to a capital-driven entity [1] - OpenAI's strategy involves substantial long-term commitments and investments, aiming to create a competitive advantage in AI infrastructure [2][3] Financial Reality - The $300 billion contract with Oracle implies an annual expenditure of $60 billion, which is six times OpenAI's current annual revenue [3] - OpenAI is projected to have a net loss of approximately $5 billion in 2025, despite a significant revenue increase [3] - The company's financial commitments far exceed its current revenue-generating capabilities, raising concerns about sustainability [3] Market Dynamics - The market has developed a strong belief in OpenAI's growth potential, leading to a lack of critical analysis regarding its financial health [5] - OpenAI's influence in the AI sector has made it a lever for capital, attracting significant investments based on future expectations rather than current performance [6] - The competitive landscape is pressured by high-value contracts, forcing other companies to follow suit or risk being marginalized [7] Industry Implications - The current investment climate is characterized by a focus on narrative and expectations rather than tangible cash flow, which can lead to inflated valuations [6][11] - OpenAI's approach mirrors past instances in the tech industry where companies leveraged hype for short-term gains at the expense of long-term trust [10][11] - The potential for a market correction exists if the promised returns do not materialize, which could impact investor confidence across the AI sector [8][12] Competitive Landscape - OpenAI's challenges, including delays in product releases and performance issues, have opened a strategic window for competitors, particularly in China [12][13] - Chinese AI companies are making significant advancements and could capitalize on OpenAI's current vulnerabilities to reshape the global AI landscape [12][13] - The ongoing competition may lead to a shift in focus from speculative investments to practical applications and technological advancements [13][14]