Core Viewpoint - The rebound in consumer data for November is expected due to the convergence of tariff policies and government shutdown impacts, aligning with the traditional consumption peak season [5][6] - The retail sales growth rate for November was recorded at +0.6%, surpassing the market expectation of +0.4% [6] Economic Outlook - Three reasons support a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026 U.S. economic data: 1. The impact of government shutdown on the economy may lead to a low base effect, benefiting GDP growth in Q1 2026 2. The IRS will initiate concentrated tax refunds in Q1 2026, potentially boosting GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points 3. The probability of another government shutdown at the end of January is currently estimated at 30%, considered a low probability event [5][7] Interest Rate Outlook - The company maintains the view that the pace of interest rate cuts will be delayed, with the Federal Reserve remaining cautious in the short term. The pace of cuts may accelerate after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the State Grid Corporation of China is expected to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets, representing a 40% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, aimed at driving high-quality development of the new power system industry chain and supply chain [4][5]. Investment Overview - The average annual investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is projected to be 800 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 7% from 2026 to 2030 [5]. - The total fixed asset investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" exceeded 2.85 trillion yuan, with a record high investment of over 650 billion yuan in 2025 [5]. Green Transition Focus - The State Grid aims to align with national emission reduction targets, with an expected annual increase of around 200 million kilowatts in installed capacity for wind and solar energy [6]. - The goal is to increase the share of non-fossil energy consumption to 25% and the proportion of electricity in final energy consumption to 35% [6]. New Power Grid Platform Development - The State Grid plans to enhance cross-regional and cross-provincial transmission capacity by over 30% by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [7]. - Significant progress is expected in the construction of ultra-high voltage projects, with multiple key projects set to commence or be completed by 2025 [8]. Infrastructure and Digitalization - The State Grid will strengthen the flexibility and mutual support capabilities between regions and accelerate the construction of distribution networks in urban, rural, and remote areas [8]. - There is a focus on building smart microgrid models and enhancing digital infrastructure to support high-quality development of the distribution network and smart microgrids [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that CITIC Bank's 2025 performance shows a slight decline in revenue but a stable growth in net profit, indicating resilience in its financial performance despite challenging market conditions [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, CITIC Bank achieved an operating income of 212.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.62 billion, reflecting a 3% increase [4]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity was 9.39%, down 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4]. - The revenue decline narrowed compared to the first three quarters of 2025, with a 3 percentage point improvement, while the profit growth rate remained steady at 3% [5]. Group 2: Asset Growth and Loan Performance - By the end of 2025, the total assets of CITIC Bank grew by 6.3% year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the third quarter [6]. - The bank's interest-earning assets and loans saw year-on-year growth rates of 6.6% and 2.7%, respectively, with general loans maintaining stable growth [6]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, CITIC Bank's corporate loans increased by 304 billion, which was 79.8 billion more than the previous year, indicating a strong performance in corporate lending [6]. Group 3: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2025 was 1.15%, a slight decrease of 1 basis point from the third quarter [7]. - The corporate NPL ratio was 1.13%, showing a minor decline, while the retail NPL ratio was 1.3%, which increased slightly [7]. - The provision coverage ratio remained stable at over 200%, with a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 203.6% by the end of 2025 [7].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 1）12月美国CPI同比+2.7%，市场预期+2.7%，前值+2.7%；环比+0.3%，预期+0.3%；2）核心CPI同比 +2.6%，市场预期+2.7%，前值+2.6%；环比+0.2%，预期+0.3%。 12月美国核心CPI读数略低于市场预期，环比反弹幅度较为温和。12月美国CPI同比+2.7%，与上月和市场 预期一致，环比增速升至+0.3%，与市场预期一致；核心CPI同比增速降至+2.6%，低于市场预期的 +2.7%，环比增速为+0.2%，也低于市场预期的+0.3%。 因政府停摆导致11月统计数据"失真"，美国通胀数据意外爆冷，市场普遍预期12月数据纠偏会导致通胀环 比出现明显反弹。但从实际数据来看，通胀环比反弹幅 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： （赵格格/刘星辰） 2026-01-14 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【钢铁】电解铝现货周内价格创历史次新高水平——金属周期品高频数据周报（2026.1.5-2026.1.11） 2025年12月中央经济工作会议再提深入整治"内卷式"竞争及深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造，2025年12月底发 改委强调继续实施粗钢产量调控，我们认为中长期来看钢铁板块供给或将得到合理约束，板块盈利有望修复到 历史均值水平。 （王招华/戴默） 2026-01-13 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【基础化工】政策指引推动"AI+"转型，三大路径驱动化工企业智能化落地——石化化工行业"AI+"进展点评 今 日 聚 焦 【宏观】通胀担忧缓和，但短期降息必要 ...

Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is 47.15, a month-on-month decrease of 10.19% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in November 2025 is -3.1 percentage points, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4509 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The current operating rate of blast furnaces is at a five-year high for the same period [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar -1.20%, cement price index -0.92%, rubber +3.93%, coke -3.52%, coking coal -0.43%, and iron ore +2.36% [5] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates have changed by -0.31 percentage points, +1.86 percentage points, and -4.1 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price increasing by 0.76% and glass price decreasing by 1.79% [6] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1706 yuan per ton, while the flat glass operating rate is 73.89% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at the median level for the same period over the past five years [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel -0.13%, copper +2.90%, and aluminum +8.53%, with corresponding gross profit changes showing a turnaround [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 65.89%, a decrease of 2.36 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The price of electrolytic aluminum reached a historical second-high level at 24060 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month increase of 8.53% [8] - The profit for electrolytic aluminum is 6787 yuan per ton (excluding tax), a month-on-month increase of 35.32% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 484500 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 6.60% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 3.92 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 20 yuan per ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 460 yuan per ton, an increase of 80 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 290 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.33% from last week [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December is 49.00%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1194.89 points, a month-on-month increase of 4.21% [11] - The announcement from the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs indicates that from January 1, 2026, export licenses will be implemented for certain steel products, which is expected to further regulate steel exports [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 2.79%, with the industrial sector performing best at +8.52% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 31.91% and 99.22% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]

特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年8月，国务院发布《国务院关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，该文件明确提出要推动人工智能 与经济社会各行业各领域广泛深度融合，重塑人类生产生活范式 为此该文件也设立了行动各阶段的要求与目标：（1）到2027年，率先实现人工智能与6大重点领域（科技、产 业、消费、民生、治理、全球合作）广泛深度融合，新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率超70%，智能经济 核心产业规模快速增长，人工智能在公共治理中的作用明显增强，人工智能开放合作体系不断完善。（2）到 2030年，我国人工智能全面赋能高质量发展，新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率超90%，智能经济成为我 国经济发展的重要增长极，推动技术普惠和成果共享。（3）到2035年，我国全面步入智能经济和智能社 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that the total wealth management scale in the market will grow by approximately 3.5 trillion yuan to reach 33-34 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by multiple factors including deposit "disintermediation" and the expansion of wealth management products [4]. Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - Deposit "disintermediation" remains a crucial support factor, but the growth pace may experience fluctuations; a neutral estimate suggests an increase of around 3 trillion yuan in 2026 [4]. - The maturity of over 41 trillion yuan in deposits from listed banks in 2026 is expected, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 9 trillion yuan [4]. - Factors such as the "true net value" operation leading to increased yield volatility and pressure on "ranking" product scales may cause fluctuations in the growth pace of wealth management [4]. Group 2: Product Layout - The focus is on building a stable low-volatility foundation while actively expanding rights-containing products, with an estimated 150-300 billion yuan in funds expected to flow into the stock market from wealth management in 2026 [5]. - The "fixed income +" wealth management scale is projected to grow by 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with a nearly 16% increase in the existing scale by year-end compared to the beginning of the year [5]. - Regulatory bodies are conducting research on the challenges and bottlenecks regarding wealth management funds entering the market, indicating a strong demand for expanding rights-containing products [5]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - There remains a rigid allocation to deposit-type assets, with a shift towards multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches to enhance returns [6]. - The report suggests that the allocation to bonds may increase if the relative "cost-effectiveness" of deposits and bonds changes, alongside changes in the stability of wealth management liabilities [6]. - The forecast for wealth management's bond allocation indicates a strong demand for short-term bonds, while the capacity for mid to long-term allocations may decrease, leading to a steepening yield curve [6]. Group 4: Wealth Management Operations - The performance benchmarks for wealth management are expected to face downward pressure, with potential for increased net value drawdown risks [7]. - The "true net value" operation model may lead to a weaker customer experience in terms of returns in 2026 compared to the previous year [7]. - Despite these challenges, factors such as increased liquidity reserves and regulatory support for liquidity are expected to mitigate redemption pressures [7]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The market share of wealth management companies is expected to continue rising, with channel factors being a significant variable affecting the competitive landscape [8]. - The distribution channels for wealth management are anticipated to further penetrate county-level regions, enhancing customer reach and potentially increasing market share [8]. - The number of wealth management institutions is expected to remain stable, with the possibility of new institutions being established [8].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 4）2025 年 1-12 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交均价为 24,723 元/㎡，同比+0.7%；其中，北 上广深杭蓉成交均价 42,196 元/㎡，同比+2.6%，余下二线 24 城成交均价为 16,709 元/㎡，同比-2.5%。 二手房：2025 年核心 15 城二手住宅成交面积同比-0.7% 1）2025 年 12 月，光大核心 15 城二手住宅成交面积为 1,317 万㎡，同比-27.0%，环比+6.6%；其中一线 城市成交面积为 493 万㎡，同比-25.2%，环比+8.9%，余下二线城市成交面积为 825 万㎡，同比-28.0%， 环比+5.2%。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 新房：2025 年光大核心 30 城住宅成 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、前言 混合神经网络是指整合了多种神经网络架构的深度学习模型。这类模型通过多层架构实现网络接力式思考，融 合不同类型网络优势，从而实现模型学习能力和性能的提升。在金融时间序列分析上，常见的混合神经网络组 合包括CNN-GRU-ATT、CNN-LSTM-ATT等。其中，CNN（卷积神经网络）具备捕捉局部短期特征的能力， 能够学习短时间内的波动规律；GRU（门控神经网络）和LSTM（长短期记忆神经网络）均属于具有时序记忆 功能的RNN（循环神经网络）的变体，擅长学习长期趋势的特征；ATT（注意力机制）则能调节模型注意力权 重，使其聚焦于重要的时间节点。 3、研究设计 本篇研究的核心思路是将单一神经网络模型与混合神经网络模型进行对 ...