Core Viewpoint - The central bank's cautious approach to purchasing government bonds, with a net liquidity injection of only 50 billion yuan in December 2025, contrasts sharply with the higher monthly net purchases of 100 to 300 billion yuan seen from August to December 2024, indicating a strategy of prudent control over bond buying [4][5]. Group 1 - The limited bond purchases by the central bank are intended to manage liquidity and avoid excessive influence on bond yields, which can be affected through both supply-demand dynamics and investor expectations [5][6]. - The expectation of bond yield declines is largely driven by market speculation rather than direct actions from the central bank, as evidenced by the 14 basis point drop in the 10-year government bond yield from the first quarter to the end of July 2024, despite the central bank only starting bond purchases in August [5][6]. - The central bank aims to reduce the correlation between its bond purchases and yield movements to prevent market overreaction and maintain effective liquidity management [6][7]. Group 2 - The central bank may increase its bond purchase scale when market focus on this issue diminishes, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards viewing bond operations similarly to daily reverse repo operations [7]. - The ideal scenario envisioned is one where the central bank can flexibly use bond buying to manage liquidity without causing significant fluctuations in bond yields, reflecting a more stable market environment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for 2025, driven by rising prices of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, alongside production capacity expansion through acquisitions [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.29-8.89 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.78% to 90.65% [4]. - The forecasted net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be 8.23-8.83 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 87.02% to 100.66% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Production and Sales - In Q4 2025, the company produced approximately 1.63 million tons of potassium chloride, marking an 11.9% increase year-on-year and a 28.0% increase quarter-on-quarter; however, sales decreased by 36.7% year-on-year and 12.0% quarter-on-quarter to 0.95 million tons [5]. - The company’s lithium carbonate production reached about 14,900 tons in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 62.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.4%; sales were 14,100 tons, up 6.3% year-on-year and 29.4% quarter-on-quarter [5]. Group 3: Price Trends - The average price of potassium chloride in Q4 2025 was 3,250 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, while the average price of lithium carbonate was 90,500 yuan per ton, up 19.2% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Strategic Acquisition - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkang Salt Lake for approximately 4.605 billion yuan, which will enhance its potassium and lithium resource reserves [6]. - Following the acquisition, Wenkang Salt Lake will become a subsidiary, contributing to the company’s consolidated financial statements and increasing its production capacity for lithium and potassium [6]. - The integration of Wenkang Salt Lake's efficient lithium extraction technology with the company's existing production system is expected to optimize cost structures [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the new regulations and supporting documents for commercial real estate REITs have been implemented, marking the beginning of a new chapter in the market [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has officially launched the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, with a broad definition that includes commercial complexes, retail, office, and hotel properties [5] - The establishment of a dual-track review system is expected to enhance review efficiency and accelerate the expansion of the REITs market [5] Group 2 - Multiple mechanisms have been improved and supplemented, including pricing mechanisms, fundraising mechanisms, information disclosure mechanisms, project registration review mechanisms, and risk prevention measures, which will help stabilize the REITs market while promoting expansion [6] - The CSRC has proposed to enrich the index system covering REITs and encourage various long-term funds, such as insurance funds and social security funds, to enter the market, which is expected to lead to a market rebound [7]

1）2025 年 12 月，TOP10 房企的全口径销售金额、权益销售金额、全口径销售面积分别为 1,895 亿 元 、 1,452 亿 元 、 838 万 平 ， 同 比 分 别 为 -12.0% 、 -11.0% 、 -16.5% ， 环 比 分 别 为 +49.3% 、 +54.3%、+22.4%。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025 全年 TOP100 房企全口径销售额同比-19.8%，12 月环比+40% 2）2025 年 1-12 月，TOP10 房企的全口径销售金额、权益销售金额、全口径销售面积分别为 1.67 万 亿元、1.21 万亿元、7,736 万平，同比分别为-16.5%、-17.6%、-24.5%，累计同比较 1-11 月变化 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Development and Property Services Market Performance - The real estate development sector's price-to-book ratio (PB) is 0.81 as of December 31, 2025, with a historical percentile of 25.79% since 2018. The Hang Seng real estate and construction sector's PB is 0.41, with a historical percentile of 22.98% [4] - For the period from January 1 to December 31, 2025, the top three A-share real estate developers by stock performance are Shanghai Lingang (+18.24%), Binjiang Group (+17.70%), and New Town Holdings (+16.64%). The top three H-share developers are Jianfa International Group (+30.36%), China Resources Land (+27.21%), and China Jinmao (+25.81%) [4] - The property services sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is 39.76 as of December 31, 2025, with a historical percentile of 45.44% since 2018. The Hang Seng property services and management sector's PE is 45.63, with a historical percentile of 86.96% [5] - For the same period, the top three A-share property service companies by stock performance are Nandu Property (+53.47%), Xinda Zheng (+37.53%), and Shilianhang (+10.04%). The top three H-share companies are China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (+57.57%), Greentown Service (+28.23%), and Jianfa Property (+20.00%) [5] Group 2: Fund Holdings and Market Expectations - As of the end of Q3 2025, public funds hold real estate stocks worth a total market value of 55.81 billion, representing 0.15% of net value, an increase from 0.14% at the end of Q2 2025. This accounts for approximately 0.62% of stock investment market value, down from 0.67% in Q2 2025 [6] - The article from "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes the importance of managing expectations to stabilize the real estate market, highlighting the significant financial asset nature of real estate. It notes that the housing service, second-hand housing transactions, and real estate asset management sectors still have substantial growth potential [7] - The article also mentions that there is an accumulated housing stock of approximately 35 billion square meters in urban areas, with an estimated annual depreciation rate of 2%, leading to a replacement demand of about 700 million square meters [7]

Group 1: REITs Market Overview - The secondary market prices of publicly listed REITs in China continued to decline, with the CSI REITs closing at 778.6 and the CSI REITs total return index at 1009.84, reflecting monthly returns of -3.77% and -2.93% respectively [5] - Compared to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked from high to low are: A-shares > convertible bonds > gold > pure bonds > US stocks > REITs > crude oil [5] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Insights - The article from "Qiushi" emphasizes stabilizing expectations for the real estate market in 2026, with anticipation for stronger policy support. High-energy cities are expected to benefit from urban renewal, leading to structural optimization and gradual stabilization of prices [5] - In December 2025, the top 10 real estate companies reported total sales of 189.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of 12.0% and a month-on-month increase of 49.3% [6] Group 3: Steel and Metal Industry Updates - The price of tungsten concentrate has seen its first decline since October 2025, with the central economic work conference reiterating the need to address "involution" competition and promote energy-saving transformations in key industries [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized management and optimization of copper smelting capacity, with cable manufacturing companies reporting the lowest operating rates in nearly six years [8] Group 4: Construction and Building Materials - Beijing's recent policy adjustments aim to optimize real estate regulations, including easing home purchase conditions for non-local families and enhancing support for multi-child households [8]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends affecting various sectors, particularly focusing on financing conditions, construction, real estate, and industrial products, indicating a mixed outlook for the economy in December 2025. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is at 47.15, a decrease of 10.19% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in November 2025 is -3.1 percentage points, down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,333 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national steel PMI new orders index for December decreased by 3.5 percentage points to 45.4% [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 1.22%, cement price index down by 0.06%, rubber up by 0.33%, and iron ore up by 1.77% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by -0.39 percentage points, +12.41 percentage points, and -2.4 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price unchanged and flat glass down by 1.09% [6] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,744 yuan per ton, while the flat glass operating rate is at 73.89% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for December stands at 50.80% [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.26%, copper down by 0.32%, and aluminum up by 0.50% [7] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at 69.35%, down by 2.70 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The price of graphite electrodes is at 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 2,094.1 yuan per ton, up by 1.63% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,170 yuan per ton, up by 0.50%, with a calculated profit of 5,015 yuan per ton (excluding tax), up by 1.98% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 454,500 yuan per ton, down by 1.30% from the previous week [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.04 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is -30 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 300 yuan per ton, up by 50% from last week [10] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December is 49.00%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,146.67 points, up by 1.95% [11] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced that from January 1, 2026, certain steel products will be subject to export license management, which is expected to further regulate steel exports [11] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.59%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being oil and gas, up by 3.92% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the two markets is 31.57% and 100.00% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the two markets is 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established itself as a leader in the female pelvic floor dysfunction (PFD) market in China, focusing on a comprehensive range of products and services that cater to women's health throughout their life cycle, with a strong emphasis on innovation and technology [4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 2013, the company specializes in the research, development, and sales of pelvic floor and obstetric rehabilitation devices, expanding into areas such as reproductive anti-aging, sports rehabilitation, and light medical aesthetics [4]. - The company has developed a product matrix that includes various energy source technologies such as ultrasound, laser, electrophysiology, electrical stimulation, magnetic stimulation, and high-frequency methods, leading the industry [4]. - As of mid-2025, the company has established a presence in over 8,700 hospitals and 6,000 outpatient professional institutions, with core executives holding more than 60% of shares [4]. Group 2: Market Potential - The prevalence of PFD among women in China is high, with over 280 million potential patients, yet the treatment and consultation rates remain low, indicating significant market demand [5]. - The company has created a comprehensive service model that includes screening, assessment, treatment, and home rehabilitation, positioning itself as a leader in the field [5]. - Revenue from pelvic rehabilitation products is expected to exceed 160 million yuan in 2023-2024, driven by aging demographics and increasing health awareness [5]. Group 3: Business Growth Strategy - The company is leveraging a dual-driven strategy of "medical + consumer" to enhance growth in reproductive health and anti-aging sectors, responding to the increasing demand from older and multi-child mothers [6]. - Through strategic acquisitions, the company has developed two major business systems focused on reproductive and skin health, providing comprehensive health management solutions [6]. - The revenue CAGR for reproductive rehabilitation and anti-aging products is projected to be as high as 90.1% from 2021 to 2024, supported by product upgrades and channel expansion [6]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The brain-computer interface (BCI) market presents significant growth opportunities, driven by an aging population and increasing clinical needs for neurological and degenerative diseases [8]. - The company is actively involved in high-barrier BCI technology and has initiated several national and provincial research projects, aiming to establish a comprehensive neuro-rehabilitation system [8]. - The development of a multimodal closed-loop neural regulation system is underway, with commercial products expected to be launched and generate revenue starting in 2026 [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the optimization and adjustment of housing purchase policies in Beijing, aiming to support housing demand for non-local families and families with multiple children [4] - The article highlights the adjustment of personal housing credit policies, including the removal of distinctions between first and second home loan interest rates, and an increase in public fund support for housing consumption [4] - It mentions the shift in project approval for real estate development from city-level to district-level, indicating a more localized approach to real estate management [4] Group 2 - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the industry, with a focus on the "anti-involution" theme, particularly in the cement and glass sectors, where supply-side dynamics are crucial amid declining demand [5] - It notes that the average profitability of the cement and float glass industries has fallen below the breakeven point, making supply-side adjustments a key observation area [5] - The article identifies new areas of interest, including electronic fabrics, clean rooms, and commercial aerospace, driven by high capital expenditures in the semiconductor and storage sectors [5]

2、二级市场表现 价格走势：2025年12月1日-2025年12月31日（以下简称"本月"），我国已上市公募REITs的二级市场价格 整体延续上月的波动下行趋势：中证REITs（收盘）和中证REITs全收益指数分别收于778.6和1009.84，本 月回报率分别为-3.77%和-2.93%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：A股>可转债> 黄金>纯债>美股>REITs>原油。 从项目属性来看，产权类REITs和特许经营权类REITs的二级市场价格均有所下跌，其中，特许经营权类 REITs的跌幅更大。从底层资产类型来看，本月新型基础设施类REITs涨幅最大。本月，回报率表现较好 的底层资产类别为新型基础设施类和保障房类。从单只REIT层面来看，有23只REITs上涨，有55只REITs 下跌。涨跌幅方面，涨幅排名前三的分别是华泰南京建邺REIT、中金重庆两江REIT和华夏基金华润有巢 REIT。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 ...