Core Viewpoint - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has released the 2025 Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) list, with five major Chinese banks included, and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has been upgraded from Group 2 to Group 3 [4][5]. Group 1: G-SIBs List and Rankings - Five major Chinese banks, including ICBC, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of Communications, are included in the 2025 G-SIBs list [5]. - ICBC's capital requirement has increased by 0.5 percentage points due to its upgrade to Group 3, raising its additional capital requirement from 1.5% to 2% [5]. - Other four major banks maintain their additional capital requirements at 1.5%, while Bank of Communications remains at 1% [5]. Group 2: Score Changes and Future Prospects - The scores of the five major banks have increased by 9 to 33 points, indicating a potential for Bank of China to be upgraded in the future [5]. - ICBC and Bank of China scored above 300 points, with ICBC's score rising by 33 points to 332 and Bank of China's by 32 points to 314, just 16 points away from the Group 3 threshold [5]. - Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank scored 272 and 259 points respectively, with stable group expectations in the short term [5]. - Bank of Communications scored 138 points, an increase of 9 points, remaining in Group 1 [5]. Group 3: Potential for Other Banks - The likelihood of China Merchants Bank entering the G-SIBs list has significantly increased, with its score rising by 19 points to 122, just 8 points shy of Group 1 [6]. - Other banks such as Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank have maintained stable scores, while Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's score has remained unchanged [6]. Group 4: Capital Adequacy and Regulatory Compliance - After the upgrade, ICBC's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio requirement increases to 9.5%, while its actual ratio stands at 13.6%, providing a buffer of 4.1 percentage points [7]. - All major banks meet the G-SIBs regulatory requirements, with safety margins ranging from 0.8 to 5.4 percentage points [7]. - The total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) requirements are also being met, with ICBC's total capital adequacy ratio at 19%, exceeding the required thresholds [7].

Overall Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has acknowledged the achievements in the development of energy storage and hydrogen energy, emphasizing the importance of market-oriented mechanisms for ensuring reasonable returns in energy storage [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has highlighted the need for regulatory compliance to address irrational competition in the battery manufacturing industry [4] Investment Aspects - Energy Storage: Domestic energy storage is expected to see continued growth, with local investment entities taking a more active role. The bidding data for November is anticipated to remain strong, and independent energy storage bidding in 2026 is projected to maintain favorable levels seen in 2025. The complete revenue model for independent storage will be achieved through energy markets, capacity markets, and ancillary service markets [5] - Hydrogen Energy: With the dual benefits of future industry development in China and the EU carbon tariff in 2026, hydrogen energy is expected to attract more investment as a key direction for new energy consumption and green electricity applications beyond electricity [5] - Lithium Battery: The market is currently focused on the bidding expectations for domestic energy storage in 2026 and the sales performance of new energy vehicles. The supply side of the lithium battery industry is also experiencing a trend of "anti-involution," indicating an improvement in supply-demand dynamics. Short-term expectations for lithium hexafluorophosphate are high, and various segments are entering long-term contract signing phases. Mid-term investment opportunities may arise in lithium mines with significant supply variability and in separators where profitability does not support capacity expansion [5]

Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 0.89% this week, ranking 23rd among 31 SW primary sectors; the CSI 300 rose by 1.64%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.56%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.54% [4] - The top five performing stocks in the public utility sector were Hengsheng Energy (+12.43%), Delong Huineng (+11.15%), Dazhong Public Utilities (+10.17%), ST Jinhong (+9.49%), and Xinjiang Torch (+8.76%); the bottom five were Lianmei Holdings (-7.57%), Shanghai Electric Power (-3.92%), Chuaneng Power (-2.29%), Xintian Green Energy (-1.79%), and New Natural Gas (-1.51%) [4] Price Updates - Domestic thermal coal prices slightly decreased this week, with Qinhuangdao Port's 5500 kcal thermal coal down by 7 CNY/ton; imported thermal coal showed mixed results, with Fangchenggang's 5500 kcal thermal coal down by 10 CNY/ton, while Guangzhou Port's remained stable [5] - In terms of electricity prices, the weighted average price in Guangdong and the clearing price in Shanxi both saw a week-on-week decline [5] Key Events - The State Grid's new energy cloud announced the bidding results for Gansu Province's second round of mechanism electricity prices, with a mechanism electricity volume of 15.2 billion kWh and a price level of 0.1954 CNY/kWh for 2026 [6] - The Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other authorities issued the 2026 electricity market operation plan, detailing trading scale and price mechanisms [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission released several pricing methods aimed at promoting renewable energy consumption and enhancing power supply security [7] - China Securities Index Co. announced adjustments to several indices, including the inclusion of Huadian New Energy in the CSI 300 and other indices [7]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 事件： FY2026H1收入/归母净利润同比-1.1%/+0.2%，FY2026Q2销售额增速转正 周大福发布截至2025年9月末的2026财年中期业绩。FY2026H1公司实现营业收入389.86亿港元，同比减少 1.1%，归母净利润25.34亿港元，同比增长0.2%，EPS为0.26港元，拟每股派发中期现金红利0.22港元，派息率 为85.7%。 分季度来看，FY2026Q1/Q2公司零售额分别同比-1.9%/+4.1%，中国内地分别-3.3%/+3.0%，港澳及其他市场分 别+7.8%/+11.4%。此外，公司公布2025年10月1日至11月18日主要经营数据，期间公司零售值同比增长 33.9%，其中，中国内地同比增长35.1%，港澳及其他市场同比增长26.5%。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a bullish outlook on copper prices due to supply shortages at the mining level affecting the smelting sector, with expectations for continued price increases in the future [4]. Supply and Demand - As of November 28, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 87,430 CNY/ton, up 2.07% from November 21, while LME copper closed at 11,176 USD/ton, up 3.69% [4]. - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026, indicating tightening supply [4]. - Cable companies have seen a continuous recovery in operating rates for four weeks, with Q4 expected to benefit from seasonal demand [4]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 11%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2% [5]. - As of November 28, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 723,000 tons, up 2.6% week-on-week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 669,000 tons as of November 24, 2025, up 6.8% from November 17 [5]. Supply - In October, copper scrap imports increased by 7% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [6]. - China's copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 3,544 CNY/ton as of November 28, 2025, up 869 CNY/ton from November 21 [6]. Smelting - In October 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 9.6% year-on-year [7]. - The current TC spot price is -42.70 USD/ton, down 0.4 USD/ton from November 21, marking the lowest level since September 2007 [7]. - In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 21.5% year-on-year, while exports surged by 542% [7]. Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rates to 66.89%, up 1.21 percentage points week-on-week [8]. - Home air conditioner production is expected to decline by 22% year-on-year in December 2025, but is projected to increase by 14% in January 2026 [8]. - Brass rod production, which represents about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had an operating rate of 43.5% in October 2025, down 1.6 percentage points month-on-month and 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Futures - As of November 28, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 13.4% week-on-week, reaching 218,000 lots [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 43,000 lots as of October 14, 2025, up 9.1% week-on-week [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current state of various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into price changes, production rates, and market conditions. Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October 2025 is -2.0 percentage points, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,219 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Total inventory of five major steel varieties is at the highest level for the same period in four years [5] - Price changes this week include rebar up by 0.93% and cement price index up by 0.22%, while rubber decreased by 0.34% and coking coal by 3.14% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates have changed by -0.60 percentage points, -1.27 percentage points, and +8.1 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remain stable, with glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide gross profit at -4,026 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is 74.52% [6] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes this week include cold-rolled steel down by 0.25%, copper up by 1.77%, and aluminum up by 0.33% [7] - The gross profit for cold-rolled steel has turned from loss to profit, while the losses for other commodities have increased by 1.86% and 1.49% respectively [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 69.19%, a decrease of 1.88 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a new high since 2012, currently at 339,000 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.04% [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,500 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 17.59% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,430 yuan/ton, with estimated profit at 4,223 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 1.49% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.08 [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 490 yuan/ton, down by 50 yuan/ton [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,121.80 points, down by 0.09% this week [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.90%, an increase of 0.70 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index has increased by 1.64%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals, up by 3.46% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is 37.40% and 86.64% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the consensus reached by the China Copper Raw Material Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) to reduce copper production capacity and strengthen market cooperation to ensure the healthy development of the global copper industry [4]. Group 1: Production Capacity - The CSPT group covers approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of about 1,422 million tons as of October 2025, and CSPT members collectively account for over 1,000 million tons per year [5]. Group 2: Copper Mining - The reduction in copper mining is an inevitable result of supply disruptions in 2025, with several mines, including Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente, lowering their production guidance due to various incidents, leading to a total reduction of 42,000 tons and 35,000 tons for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which represents about 1.8% and 1.5% of global copper production in 2024 [6]. Group 3: Profitability - Mining companies are facing declining treatment charges (TC) due to tight copper concentrate supply and rapid expansion of smelting capacity, with spot TC prices at -43 USD/ton as of November 28, 2025, and long-term contracts dropping to 0 USD/ton, forcing smelting companies to rely on by-products like sulfuric acid for profitability [7][8]. Group 4: Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, global copper inventory reached approximately 67.6 million tons, the highest in nearly six years, with significant amounts being moved to the U.S. due to tariff expectations, which may exacerbate supply tightness outside the U.S. if disruptions occur [9].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 风险分析： 上游资本开支增速不及预期、原油和天然气价格大幅波动。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 地缘冲突缓和预期走强，本周油价低位震荡 OPEC+有望在周日的会议上维持现有的石油产量水平不变，并将推动制定一项新机制，以评估成员国最 大产能；而OPEC+自愿减产8国将维持其暂停增产的决定。当前原油市场仍面临供需过剩，本次 OPEC+放缓增产决策有望改善过剩风险。需求端，IEA于2025年11月月报预计2026年原油需求增长77 万桶/日，供给端，IEA预计2026年全球原油供给增长250万桶/日，其中非OPEC+增长120万桶/日， OPEC+增长130万桶/日。当前美联储重启降息周期，全球贸易冲突风险仍具不确定性，建议关注26年需 求预期变化对油价的影响。 "三桶油" ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 波司登发布截至2025年9月末的2025/2026财年中期业绩。2025/2026上半财年公司实现营业收入89.3亿元 （人民币，下同），同比增长1.4%，归母净利润11.9亿元，同比增长5.3%，EPS为0.1元人民币，拟每股派 中期股息6.3港仙。 利润率指标方面，上半财年毛利率同比提升0.1PCT至50%，经营利润率同比提升0.3PCT至17%，归母净利 率同比提升0.5PCT至13.3%。 点评： 羽绒服业务收入稳健增长8%，贴牌加工业务受外部环境影响、收入下滑12% 占主导的品牌羽绒服业务再拆分：1）按品牌，主品牌波司登/雪中飞/冰洁/其他（系羽绒服产品有关的原材 料等）收入占品牌羽绒服业务的比重分别为87 ...

瘦身版适合苹果X等全面屏 六出飞花入户时，坐看青竹变琼枝。 光大研究财经月历，一览重点经济数据发布时间表。两款 尺寸手机屏保，全球财经大事尽在掌握。 丰满版适合多数非全面屏 N F TV 2 3 4 5 6 美国11月 十三 十七 十四 十五 美国11月 中国11月 制造业PMI 非农就业/失业率 外汇储备 12 13 14 9 甘四 甘五 二十 中国11月 中国11月 = 1 进出口 M2 /社融 议息会议 美国11月CPI 20 21 16 18 19 甘九 中国11月 工业/投资/社消 甘七 三十 冬月 冬至 美国11月 零售 23 24 25 26 28 初六 中国11月 CPI 初四 初五 初七 初九 中国 11 = 工业企业利润 29 30 初十 + 中国12月 官方制造业PMI ...