查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 点击注册小程序 【策略】多重利好因素叠加，市场探底回升——策略周专题（2025年11月第4期） 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨 空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场 可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。 （张宇生/郭磊）2025-11-29 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【金工】量能决定短期反弹高度——金融工程市场跟踪周报20251130 本周A股市场震荡反弹，创业板指领涨主要宽基指数。量能表现方面，本周主要宽基指数量能逆势收缩，当前 量能状态与市场反弹表现不 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2026年钾肥大合同签订，中国继续保持全球钾肥"价格洼地" 根据中农集团消息，2025年11月23日中方钾肥进口谈判小组与食安供应链有限公司（迪拜）就2026年钾肥年度 进口合同价格达成一致，合同价格为348美元/吨（CFR），中国继续保持了全球钾肥"价格洼地"。该合同价格 相较于2025年钾肥大合同价格上涨约2美元/吨。此次钾肥大合同签订时间较往年显著提前，一方面将有效保证 我国冬储及春耕的钾肥需求，另一方面也反映出由于当前钾肥供需偏紧厂商提前锁价。 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound this week, with the ChiNext Index leading the major broad indices. However, trading volume showed a contraction, indicating a potential mismatch with the market's rebound performance, which may limit the strength of future rebounds [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, the SSE 50 by 0.47%, the CSI 300 by 1.64%, the CSI 500 by 3.14%, the CSI 1000 by 3.77%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.54% [4] Valuation Insights - As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index and SSE 50 are in the "danger" valuation percentile, while the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index are in the "moderate" valuation percentile [4] - In terms of industry classification, sectors such as coal, steel, building materials, light manufacturing, electric equipment and new energy, defense, retail, textiles, pharmaceuticals, banking, electronics, computers, and comprehensive finance are in the "danger" valuation percentile. Conversely, food and beverage, as well as non-bank financials, are in the "safe" valuation percentile [5] Fund Flow and Institutional Interest - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention this week were Luxshare Precision (396 institutions), Dingtai High-Tech (240), Huichuan Technology (193), Jerry Holdings (168), and Amlogic (129) [6] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 19.841 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing HKD 9.349 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing HKD 10.492 billion [6] - The median return for stock ETFs this week was 2.31%, with a net outflow of CNY 40.564 billion. In contrast, cross-border ETFs had a median return of 3.22% and a net inflow of CNY 0.279 billion [6] Market Sentiment - The degree of separation among fund clusters decreased compared to the previous week, indicating an increase in excess returns for clustered stocks and funds [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase this week, with major indices such as the ChiNext Index and the Small and Medium 100 Index showing significant gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai 50 Index lagged behind [4] - The current valuation of indices like the Sci-Tech 50 and Wind All A is relatively high, with their PE (TTM) percentile exceeding 80% since 2010 as of November 28, 2025 [4] Sector Performance - Small-cap growth stocks outperformed this week, with most sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index showing gains. The telecommunications and electronics sectors led the increases, while the oil, petrochemical, and banking sectors saw declines [4] - The market style this week favored small and mid-cap growth stocks, with major style indices mostly rising, except for large-cap value stocks which fell [4] Important Events - Recent policy announcements include the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration clarifying resource tax policies, and the National Development and Reform Commission working on standards for recognizing costs in price competition [5] - Economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 1.9% year-on-year increase in profits for industrial enterprises above designated size from January to October [5] - The overall stability and improvement in China-U.S. relations were highlighted by a recent call between the leaders of both countries, signaling a commitment to maintaining international order and global stability [5] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The A-share market is currently in a bull market phase, driven by multiple favorable factors, including expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and easing concerns over the U.S. stock market's AI bubble [6] - Despite the bullish trend, the market may enter a phase of wide fluctuations in the short term, with a focus on defensive and consumer sectors in the near term, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to be key in the medium term [6] - The market is likely to experience a consolidation phase, with high dividend and consumer sectors potentially performing better during this period [6]

Group 1 - The total amount of bonds under custody increased significantly, reaching 176.77 trillion yuan by the end of October 2025, with a net increase of 1.31 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [4] - The structure of bond custody shows that interest rate bonds and credit bonds continued to increase, while financial bonds decreased. The total custody of interest rate bonds was 122.49 trillion yuan, accounting for 69.29% of the total [4] - The custody of interbank certificates of deposit saw its first net increase in the second half of the year, amounting to 20.70 trillion yuan, which is 11.67% of the total [4] Group 2 - The bond market's configuration showed a divergence in total custody among institutions, with trading accounts significantly increasing while foreign institutions continued to reduce holdings [5] - Policy banks and non-legal entities increased their holdings in interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit, while commercial banks reduced their holdings in interest rate bonds and interbank certificates of deposit [5] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with securities companies significantly increasing their holdings, while credit cooperatives and insurance institutions reduced theirs [5] Group 3 - The leverage ratio in the bond market remained stable month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, with the estimated balance of repurchase agreements at 11.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a net increase of 781.5 billion yuan [7] - The leverage ratio stood at 106.90%, indicating a slight year-on-year decline of 0.75 percentage points [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a general decline in November, with the major indices falling due to overseas expectation fluctuations and a decrease in market risk appetite. The Kweichow Moutai index saw the largest drop of 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index had the smallest decline of 1.3%. The performance across industries showed significant differentiation, with the comprehensive, banking, and media sectors leading in gains [4] Group 2 - Ideal Automotive reported a total revenue of 27.36 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.5%. The gross margin also fell by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 16.3%. The company recorded a Non-GAAP net loss of 360 million yuan, marking its first quarterly Non-GAAP loss since 2023. The decline in performance was attributed to lower-than-expected sales and recall provisions [5] Group 3 - Pony.ai achieved a total revenue of 25.44 million USD in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%. The gross margin improved by 9 percentage points year-on-year and 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 18%. However, the Non-GAAP net loss widened by 33% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter to 54.72 million USD [6]

Market Performance - In November, A-shares experienced a general decline, with the ChiNext 50 index dropping the most by 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index fell the least by 1.3% [7] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed volatility, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.1% and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreasing by 4.9% as of November 26, 2025 [7] A-share Outlook - The market is believed to still be in a bull phase, but may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the short term. There is significant room for index growth compared to previous bull markets, but the focus may shift to the duration of the bull market rather than the magnitude of gains [8] - Short-term attention should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors should be monitored in the medium term [8] Hong Kong Stock Outlook - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December may lead to continued upward volatility in the Hong Kong stock market. The overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks remains strong, with relatively low valuations despite recent increases [9] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors such as autonomous control, chips, and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies and high-dividend, low-volatility stocks in sectors like telecommunications and utilities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profitability in Q3 2025, primarily due to lower-than-expected sales and increased recall provisions, indicating ongoing challenges in the automotive market [4][5]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue decreased by 36.2% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter to 27.36 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 5.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 16.3% [4]. - Automotive business revenue fell by 37.4% year-on-year and 10.4% quarter-on-quarter to 25.87 billion yuan, with sales volume down 39.0% year-on-year and 16.1% quarter-on-quarter to 93,000 units [5]. - Non-GAAP net loss for Q3 2025 was 360 million yuan, marking the first quarterly loss of this kind in 2023 [4]. Cost Structure - R&D expense ratio increased by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year and 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 10.9%, while SG&A expense ratio rose by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 10.1% [5]. - Non-GAAP loss per vehicle in Q3 2025 was approximately 4,000 yuan, compared to a profit of 25,000 yuan in Q3 2024 and 13,000 yuan in Q2 2025 [5]. Cash Flow and Guidance - Free cash flow saw a net outflow of 8.9 billion yuan, with total cash on hand at approximately 98.9 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025 [5]. - Management guidance for Q4 2025 delivery volume is between 100,000 and 110,000 units, but the outlook remains cautious due to policy fluctuations and intensified competition [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates overcoming bottlenecks in electric vehicle deliveries, with plans to adopt a dual-supplier model for battery supply starting in November, potentially increasing i6 production capacity to 20,000 units by early 2026 [6]. - Expected improvements in product capabilities include advancements in self-developed battery technology and autonomous driving experiences, with new models anticipated to enhance competitiveness [6]. - Organizational adjustments aim to improve operational efficiency, with a focus on streamlining product offerings and enhancing R&D capabilities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance and growth potential of Xiaoma Zhixing (Pony.ai) in the Robotaxi sector, driven by technological advancements and operational efficiencies, despite ongoing financial losses [4][5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xiaoma Zhixing reported total revenue of $25.44 million, a year-on-year increase of 72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%. The gross margin improved by 9 percentage points year-on-year and 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 18%. However, the Non-GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders widened by 33% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter to $54.72 million [4]. Business Segmentation - The revenue from Robotaxi services surged by 89% year-on-year and 339% quarter-on-quarter to $6.69 million, accounting for 26% of total revenue. Passenger fare revenue grew over 200% year-on-year. Robotruck service revenue increased by 9% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter to $10.18 million, while technology licensing and service application revenue skyrocketed by 355% year-on-year but decreased by 18% quarter-on-quarter to $8.57 million [5]. Cost Management - Xiaoma Zhixing's SG&A expense ratio decreased by 2 percentage points year-on-year and 18 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 55%. As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had cash reserves totaling 4.184 billion yuan, with an additional 6 billion yuan raised post-Hong Kong IPO [5]. Global Expansion and Future Outlook - As of November 2023, Xiaoma Zhixing had a total of 961 Robotaxi vehicles, with 667 being the seventh generation, which has achieved profitability on a per-vehicle basis in Guangzhou. The management aims to exceed the target of 1,000 vehicles by the end of the year and expects to expand the Robotaxi fleet to over 3,000 vehicles by 2026 [6][7]. - The company has established a commercialized network for autonomous driving in four major first-tier cities and plans to expand operations to other domestic cities and international markets, having already obtained testing and operational licenses in several countries [6][7]. Technological and Operational Advantages - Xiaoma Zhixing has built core advantages in Robotaxi and Robotruck businesses through strong technology, ecosystem partnerships, and operational qualifications. The seventh-generation Robotaxi has reduced the cost of the autonomous driving suite by 70% compared to the previous generation, with an expected further reduction of 20% by 2026 [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - NIO's financial performance shows signs of improvement with a narrowing loss and increasing revenue, indicating potential for profitability in the near future [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, NIO's total revenue increased by 16.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter to 21.79 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 13.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The Non-GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed by 37.3% year-on-year and 33.1% quarter-on-quarter to 2.76 billion yuan [4]. - The delivery volume in Q3 2025 rose by 40.8% year-on-year and 20.8% quarter-on-quarter to 87,000 vehicles, with automotive business revenue increasing by 15.0% year-on-year and 19.0% quarter-on-quarter to 19.2 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Cost Management and Profitability Outlook - NIO's Non-GAAP R&D expense ratio decreased by 6.6 percentage points year-on-year and 4.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 8.9%, while the Non-GAAP SG&A expense ratio fell by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 18.0% [5]. - The Non-GAAP loss per vehicle narrowed to 32,000 yuan, and free cash flow turned positive, with total cash on hand reaching 36.7 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025 [5]. - Management guidance for Q4 2025 indicates expected deliveries of 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles and a gross margin of 18%, suggesting a potential turnaround to profitability [5]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Expansion - New model orders are gradually being released, with the ES8 and L90 showing strong performance, indicating a potential recovery in fundamentals as sales of high-margin models increase [6]. - NIO plans to launch three new mid-to-large SUVs in 2026, aiming to cover various price segments and boost domestic sales [6]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion and has established a joint venture for chip supply, which may open new profit models [6].