当地时间6月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，他希望伊朗能够接受国际检查，以核实其不会重启核计 划。他还表示，将 考虑因铀浓缩问题再次轰炸伊朗。 特朗普称，一段时间以来一直存在"假新闻"， 伊朗核设施已被摧毁，他不相信伊朗会重返核武领域 。 来源：央视新闻 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" ...

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo is entering the instant retail market through its subsidiary Duoduo Grocery, aiming to enhance delivery efficiency and consumer experience amidst slowing growth in traditional e-commerce [2][3][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The instant retail market is highly competitive, with major players like JD, Meituan, and Alibaba already engaged in fierce competition [4][5][6]. - Pinduoduo's entry transforms the competition into a "four-way battle," leveraging its low-price strategy and large user base [6][12]. - The core of this competition revolves around meeting consumer demands for rapid delivery, specifically the "30-minute delivery" promise [6][48]. Group 2: Pinduoduo's Strategy - Pinduoduo's move into instant retail is both a business model upgrade and a strategic defense against rising competitors [8][11]. - The company aims to combine the cost advantages of community group buying with the timeliness of instant retail [13][15]. - Initial offerings will include a mix of products from Duoduo Grocery and Pinduoduo's main platform, focusing on fresh produce and consumer goods at low prices [14]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - JD has made significant investments in instant retail, launching "JD Seconds" and emphasizing quality delivery services [18][30]. - Meituan has responded aggressively, enhancing its own instant retail offerings and committing to substantial subsidies for delivery personnel [25][31]. - Alibaba has restructured its instant retail operations, integrating its platforms to enhance efficiency and user engagement [34][44]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The instant retail market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by consumer demand for convenience and efficiency [47][49]. - The competition is not just about market share but also about building robust supply chains and delivery networks to ensure quality and speed [56][58]. - The battle for dominance in instant retail will test the capabilities of these companies in terms of capital, patience, and operational execution [60].

Core Viewpoint - The "Pennsylvania Plan" proposed by Deutsche Bank aims to address the increasing U.S. deficit by reallocating U.S. Treasury ownership from foreign to domestic investors, thereby reducing reliance on foreign capital and financing the deficit through domestic resources [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. is facing a "twin deficit" dilemma, characterized by both fiscal deficits and trade deficits, which complicates the economic landscape [5][6]. - The U.S. has a significantly negative net foreign asset position, leading to a heavy dependence on foreign funding, which constrains its sovereign independence [6][7]. Group 2: Pennsylvania Plan Strategies - The core strategy of the "Pennsylvania Plan" is to facilitate a historic transfer of U.S. Treasury holdings from foreign to domestic investors [9][10]. - The plan includes two main strategies: reducing dependence on foreign buyers and increasing domestic absorption of Treasury risks [10][11]. Group 3: Reducing Foreign Dependence - Foreign investors currently hold a record amount of U.S. sovereign risk, but demand is declining due to geopolitical shifts and increasing fiscal deficits [11][12]. - A proposed solution is to shorten the duration of foreign investors' exposure by using dollar stablecoins backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries to attract foreign capital [12]. Group 4: Increasing Domestic Absorption - The U.S. private sector has a strong balance sheet and high cash holdings, indicating potential to absorb sovereign credit risk [13]. - Policy measures may include regulatory exemptions, tax incentives, and the issuance of special bonds to encourage domestic purchases of long-term Treasuries [13]. - If incentives are insufficient, mandatory purchases of long-term Treasuries may be implemented, such as pushing retirement plans to absorb more government debt [13]. Group 5: Market Implications - The "Pennsylvania Plan" may not fundamentally resolve the twin deficit issue but could provide the U.S. government with more time by mobilizing domestic savings [14][18]. - The strategy may lead to higher Treasury yields and erosion of Federal Reserve independence, as domestic savings are pushed towards long-term fixed-income assets [15][16]. - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the U.S. external deficit, which may not necessarily be a negative outcome economically [17].

柯林斯表示，她的基本预期是在今年晚些时候开始降息。"这可能意味着一次降息，也可能不止一次， 但我认为我们需要依据数据来判断。我没有看到降息的紧迫性。" 周四，多位美联储官员讲话，他们明确表示，需要再观察几个月，才能确认由关税引发的物价上涨不会 以持续性方式推高通胀，他们尚未准备在下次会议上支持降息。 近日，特朗普在其美国总统第一任期内任命的两位美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼的讲话引起关注。他们均表 示，如果通胀保持受控，他们愿意在美联储7月29-30日会议上就开始降息。 然而，自那以后，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和旧金山联储主席戴利在内的约十位 美联储政策制定者纷纷对这一观点泼了冷水。 多位官员表示可以再等等 戴利在周四接受媒体采访时承认，越来越多的证据显示关税可能不会引发大规模或持续性的通胀上升。 但这只是让她对秋季降息持开放态度。戴利表示：" 我一直的主要预期是，我们将在秋季开始调整利 率，这一观点并未改变。" 今年以来，价格增长速度低于预期，美联储偏好的通胀指标在4月同比上涨2.1%，略高于2%的目标。 周四早些时候公布的数据还显示，持续申请失业救济人数升至2021年11月以来最高，过去六周明显上 ...

当地时间周四，美国财长贝森特表示，请求国会山从"大漂亮"税收草案中删除899条款，即备受争议 的"资本税"条款。华尔街此前的担忧得以缓解。 美国财政部宣布已与七国集团（G7）盟国达成协议，在美方同意取消特朗普税案中的第899条"报复性 税收"提案后，美国公司将被豁免于部分由其他国家征收的税项。 贝森特周四在社交媒体上表示： 经合组织（OECD）"第二支柱"税收将不适用于美国公司，我们将在接下来的数周和数月内，与经合 组织-二十国集团包容性框架中的其他成员国密切合作，以推进这一协议的落实。 基于这一进展与共识，我已请求参议院和众议院将第899条保护性条款从"大漂亮"法案中删除。 贝森特此前为"资本税"条款提案进行了辩护。他在国会作证时表示，其目的是防止外国通过数千亿美元 的额外税收"榨干"美国跨国公司。 众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（Mike Johnson）和参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（John Thune）的代表未立即 回应是否会将该项"报复性税收"条款从法案中移除。 近期，特朗普政府推动将美国税制完全与OECD的全球税收框架脱钩，理由是美国已经对本国公司在海 外的收入征收了充分税款。 备受争议的"资本税"条款 ...

6月26日晚间，小米集团CEO 雷军在 发布会上宣布了小米汽车 YU7的价格。 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 小米YU7标准版 25.35万元，小米YU7 Pro 27.99万元， 小米YU7 Max 32.99万元。 ...

在美股逼空行情推动指数大幅上涨之际，瑞银自营交易部门发出警告：这轮涨势已经走得太远，投资者应该考虑减仓了。该行专有指标显示，尽管市场表面强 劲，但真实的风险偏好实际上在持续下降。 据追风交易台消息，瑞银机构场内交易主管Rebecca Cheong在最新发布的报告中指出，尽管近期出现剧烈逼空反弹（UBXXSHRT逼空指数上涨43%），但该 行专有的"4M盘中复苏评分"（衡量自主风险偏好的指标）持续下跌，直至6月18日转为中性。 与此同时，市场还面临养老金再平衡抛售在即、企业回购骤降等多重资金面压力，瑞银建议投资者应考虑减持离场。 历史数据揭示逼空反弹后的规律 据瑞银报告，其衡量投资者自主风险偏好的关键指标——"4M盘中复苏评分"，在4月11日发出短暂的看涨错误信号后一路走低，于6月1日转入中性区域（低于 15%），并在6月19日进一步降至9%。 根据瑞银统计，自2022年以来出现的4次超过30%的逼空反弹中， 有3次在"4M盘中复苏评分"同样保持在25%以下的情况下，股市随后均出现回调。 | Short Squeeze # UBXX 2M Score > 25 | | | | Next Sell-Off | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of brokerage stocks is driven by a combination of market recovery and favorable policy changes, with H-shares and A-shares experiencing significant gains in recent days [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - H-share and A-share brokerage stocks have seen average increases of 12.6% and 6.3% respectively over the past five days, significantly outperforming the broader market [1][2]. - Notable performers include East Money with an 11.6% increase and China International Capital Corporation (CICC) leading H-shares with a 17.8% rise, reflecting growing market confidence in leading brokerages [2][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has shown a tendency to promote growth through recent policy adjustments, including support for technology companies and the reintroduction of listing rules for loss-making firms [4]. - Regulatory measures aimed at enhancing capital market accessibility and encouraging IPOs in the consumer sector are expected to inject positive momentum into the brokerage industry [4][5]. Group 3: Additional Drivers - A reduction in global geopolitical uncertainties has led to increased investor risk appetite, contributing to the rise in brokerage stocks [6]. - The sustained high average daily trading volume (ADT) in the Hong Kong market and active IPO transactions are providing revenue growth opportunities for brokerages [7]. - The more inclusive and diversified A-share IPO reforms are anticipated to accelerate financing activities, benefiting the investment banking business of brokerages [8].

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized the importance of the futures market in the context of financial openness and aimed to explore new opportunities and strategies for investment in the evolving economic landscape [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is entering a phase of monetary system reconstruction, leading to a long-term bull market for gold due to declining trust among nations [1]. - Domestic economic potential remains significant in the medium to long term, but short-term demand needs to be stimulated, with expectations of continued marginal policy easing and potential comprehensive interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy for 2025 is optimistic about the Chinese stock market, driven by reduced marginal impacts from valuation contractions and a shift in investor expectations from economic cycles to declining discount rates [2]. - The "three arrows" of Chinese policy—debt resolution, demand stimulation, and asset price stabilization—along with capital market reforms and emerging technology opportunities, are expected to boost long-term investor confidence [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The uncertain global market environment is expected to alter asset pricing logic, with significant impacts from trade wars and a shift towards de-dollarization limiting aggressive foreign policies [3]. - Structural opportunities are anticipated in equity markets, while bond performance is viewed positively; however, the commodity market outlook remains unclear with limited upside potential [3]. Group 4: Conference Structure - The conference featured 11 sub-forums covering various topics such as global trade restructuring, value anchoring in black and non-ferrous metals, agricultural opportunities, energy diversification, and AI quantitative strategies [4]. Group 5: Future Commitment - The company aims to enhance its service capabilities for various investors while adhering to core values of integrity, responsibility, friendliness, professionalism, and innovation to support stable market development [5].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of vivo X Fold5 aims to revitalize the folding smartphone market by offering significant advancements in hardware and software, targeting mainstream consumers with compelling reasons to adopt folding devices [1][3][19]. Group 1: Hardware Innovations - vivo X Fold5 is the lightest folding smartphone globally, weighing only 217 g, and features an equivalent battery capacity of 6000mAh, enhancing its practicality for users [2][5]. - The device boasts the world's first "three-proof" capabilities, including IPX9+ water resistance, IP5X dust resistance, and operational durability in temperatures as low as -20°C [5][6]. - The camera system includes a Zeiss 85mm super telephoto lens and professional optimization for macro photography, enhancing image quality across various photography scenarios [6][8]. Group 2: Software and Ecosystem Integration - X Fold5 introduces the first cross-ecosystem connection between Android devices and Apple Watch, targeting Apple users and enhancing interoperability [8][13]. - The "Atomic Workbench" feature allows users to run and display five applications simultaneously on one screen, addressing the needs of young professionals in mobile office scenarios [10][11]. - The device supports seamless file transfer between applications and enhanced collaboration with Mac computers, further bridging the gap between Android and Apple ecosystems [16][18]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Consumer Targeting - vivo aims to penetrate the mainstream market by addressing the practical needs of young consumers, particularly in mobile office environments, where traditional smartphones fall short [9][10]. - The strategy includes appealing to Apple users who are currently underserved in the folding smartphone segment, as Apple is not expected to release a folding device until at least 2026 [17][19]. - By focusing on the unmet needs of potential customers, vivo seeks to expand its user base and drive growth in the folding smartphone market [19].