作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 11月美国新增非农就业人数6.4万（市场预期5.0万），10月新增就业人数则因联邦政府裁员而大幅下降10.5 万；11月失业率升至4.6%（市场预期4.5%），劳动参与率小幅上升至62.5%（市场预期62.4%），平均时薪同 比增速减速至3.5%（市场预期3.6%）。10月失业率及其它家庭调查数据因政府停摆永久缺失。 图1：11月美国失业率陡峭上行至4.6% 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 失业率陡峭上行更多来自暂时性因素扰动，从数据细节看就业市场仍有韧性，可能已经接近本轮周期底部。供 给扩张受到保守移民政策与老龄化的双重限制，移民劳工增长已经陷入停滞，黄金年龄段劳动参与率则较疫前 高出1.6pct，失业上行阻力越来越大。需求收缩同样缺乏长期持续的基础，政府裁员及停摆的冲击告一段落， 关税对相关行业的影响亦在衰减，职位空缺数已于8月见底回升。 图2：供给增加是失业率边际上行的重要原因 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 图3：黄金年龄段劳动参与率或已达峰 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 "双目标"前景符合预期，美联储大概率按计划放缓降息节奏 ...

一、总览：总体放缓，价格企稳 12月15日，国家统计局发布11月国民经济运行数据，主要指标延续放缓，并低于市场预期。供给端，全国规上 工业增加值同比增长4.8%（预期5%），服务业生产指数当月同比增长4.2%。需求端，固定资产投资累计同 比-2.6%（预期-2.2%）。其中，基建和制造业累计增速分别为0.1%（预期1.5%）和1.9%（预期1.7%），房地 产投资累计同比-15.9%（预期-15.4%）。社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%（预期2.9%）。 11月我国经济运行结构边际变化，外需保持韧性，内需显著放缓，生产相对稳定。 人民币计价出口金额同比 增长5.7%，较10月大幅回升6.3pct，新兴市场增量订单保持强劲。内需不足压力凸显，投资和社零同比增速均 再创年内新低，与工业增加值增速差再度扩大。 广谱价格初现企稳态势，CPI通胀大幅上行，PPI通胀与房价 微幅下探。 CPI通胀升至0.7%，为2024年3月以来最高值；PPI通胀小幅下行0.1pct至-2.2%；新建与二手住宅均 价环比下跌0.4%和0.7 %，降幅分别较上月略有收缩和持平。 二、结构：外需韧性，内需放缓，生产稳定 消费方面，商品餐饮 ...

美联储主席人选再生变数，沃什成为哈塞特的有力竞争对手。 市场预期哈塞特可能更大程度牺牲美联储独立 性满足特朗普政府降息诉求，相比之下沃什则更偏鹰派。 上周受到12月美联储议息会议偏鸽，叠加美国当周初次申请失业金人数跳升的影响，市场交易偏鸽，美债利率 震荡，美元下跌，人民币升值，黄金上涨。 美股方面， 上周标普500指数上涨0.45%，美联储降息叠加偏鸽表态支撑了市场。短期来看，强劲的盈利基础 和宽松的货币政策构成关键支撑，短期市场有望修复。中期来看，美股估值偏高，AI泡沫担忧和变现压力的 问题仍然存在，未来市场还将在高估值、降息、AI变现之间反复博弈。美股盈利增长仍是核心支撑，但估值 上升空间收窄。 维持对美股的标配，收益预期方面回落至与盈利增速相匹配。若市场出现10%-20%的回调，估值将回归合理区 间，可考虑加大配置力度。配置上适度分散化，在科技股之外，可以关注材料和工业板块。 美债方面， 短期可关注本周公布的11月非农数据、明年初美联储新任主席的提名情况。若非农差于预期，或 是提名的主席人选鸽派倾向浓厚，美债利率可能会进一步下行。趋势上维持利率中枢下移的观点不变，其中短 债将直接受益于美联储的降息和扩表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlines the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a balanced approach to domestic economic work and international trade, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth [1] Group 1: Work Tone - The conference adopts a pragmatic and positive tone, affirming that the main economic goals for 2025 will be met, with an expected GDP growth rate of 5% [2] - It acknowledges persistent challenges in economic development, including external environmental changes, domestic supply-demand imbalances, and risks in key areas [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy will maintain strength and enhance effectiveness, with a focus on both existing and new policies [5] - Fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of 4% for 2026, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion, an increase of 190 billion from 2025 [7] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, prioritizing economic stability over inflation, with expectations for a 50 basis point reduction in reserve requirement ratios [9] Group 3: Key Work Areas - The conference identifies eight key work areas, with "expanding domestic demand" as the top priority, focusing on increasing residents' income and optimizing supply [10] - Innovation-driven policies will see significant changes, including the establishment of a comprehensive education and technology talent development plan [12] - Emphasis on green transformation and addressing risks in key areas, particularly in real estate and local government debt [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50-3.75%, indicating a shift towards a more dovish stance amid internal divisions within the committee [1][5][6]. Economic Outlook - The Fed expresses confidence in a "Goldilocks" scenario where high growth and stable inflation are expected to occur simultaneously, with the 2026 GDP growth forecast raised by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3% and PCE inflation forecast lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% [3][4]. - Concerns about employment risks are prioritized over inflation risks, with indications that the labor market is cooling down [3][4]. Policy Decisions - The Fed's decision to cut rates reflects increasing internal divisions, with 6 out of 19 committee members opposing the rate cut, suggesting a potential pause in future cuts [5][6]. - The initiation of a reserve management-type balance sheet expansion (RMP) aims to maintain liquidity, with an initial expansion rate of $40 billion per month [5][6]. Forward Guidance - The Fed may implement 2-4 additional rate cuts in 2026, totaling 50-100 basis points, with a potential slowing of the rate cut pace to one cut every two meetings [6][7]. - The Fed's balance sheet expansion will align with nominal GDP growth, with a mid-term expansion rate expected to be between $200-300 million per month [6][7]. Market Reactions - Market expectations for future rate cuts have shifted from 70 basis points to 53 basis points, with U.S. Treasury yields declining across the board [7][8]. - The stock market remains supported by the Fed's rate cuts, although concerns about high valuations and potential AI bubbles may lead to increased volatility [8][9]. Currency and Commodity Outlook - The dollar index has weakened, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately due to the ongoing rate cut cycle [9][10]. - Gold prices are anticipated to remain in a bullish trend, influenced by the Fed's rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [10].

Core Viewpoint - Since November, global long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with 30-year government bond rates rising across various countries, indicating a shift in monetary policy expectations and market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Yield Increase - The catalyst for the rise in yields is the adjustment in global monetary policy expectations, driven by inflation pressures in countries like Japan, Australia, and Canada, leading to increased interest rate hike expectations [2]. - In the Eurozone, a rebound in November inflation data has led markets to speculate on future rate hikes, while the U.S. has seen a convergence of rate cut expectations due to unclear future guidance from the Federal Reserve [2]. - China's recent monetary policy report hints at "moderate easing," suggesting limited room for rate cuts, contributing to the overall hawkish signals from major central banks [2]. Group 2: Underlying Issues - The persistent weakness in the overseas long-term bond market is attributed to a vicious cycle of high debt and high inflation, with policy changes being short-term factors [3]. - The global inflationary environment has shifted to a higher rate era, while major economies continue to pursue fiscal expansion, exacerbating debt levels and maintaining a tight policy stance [3]. - In China, the rebound in long-term bond yields is influenced by a preference for equities over bonds, as stock market returns appear more attractive [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of long-term bonds is increasing, with over 29% of domestic government bonds maturing in over 10 years by year-end, while demand from institutions is weakening [4]. - Market expectations for a weak domestic bond market in the coming year have reduced the urgency for year-end allocations, and various institutional constraints are limiting demand for long-term bonds [4]. Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - The outlook for long-term rates varies globally, with countries like Japan, Australia, and Canada facing upward pressure on yields due to ongoing rate hike expectations [5]. - In contrast, the U.S. and U.K. are in a rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a stabilization of long-term yields at high levels [5]. - In China, the probability of long-term bond yields rising in tandem with global trends is low, as domestic inflation is expected to recover moderately and monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative [6]. Group 5: Currency Implications - The divergence in global monetary policies is expected to enhance the attractiveness of non-U.S. currencies, particularly as the U.S. is anticipated to cut rates more aggressively than non-U.S. economies [7]. - Structural changes in the foreign exchange market suggest that currencies with strong fundamentals, such as the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan, may experience appreciation driven by interest rate differentials [7].

Group 1: US Macro Strategy - The US job market shows marginal signs of recovery, with initial jobless claims unexpectedly declining to 191,000, significantly below seasonal levels, while continuing claims fell to 1.939 million, indicating a peak and subsequent decline in trends [2] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3% last week, reflecting a calmer market ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, with expectations that the Fed will gradually lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0%-3.5% over the next year [2] - Short-term market support is driven by strong earnings and loose monetary policy, while mid-term concerns include high valuations and AI monetization pressures [2] Group 2: US Treasury Bonds - Short-term interest rates are expected to fluctuate around 4.1%, while long-term expectations remain pessimistic regarding the job market, likely leading to a rise in unemployment and a downward shift in Treasury yields [3] - Investors are advised to maintain positions in 2-5 year Treasury bonds, while long-term bonds should be considered only after a rebound in rates [3] Group 3: Currency and Gold - The US dollar faces downward pressure due to potential increases in unemployment and expectations of faster rate cuts if Hassett is nominated as Fed Chair, although the dollar's decline is expected to be limited within the 96-101 range [3] - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials and increased market settlement intentions [3] - Gold is currently in a consolidation phase but is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term, supported by the resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and ongoing central bank gold purchases [4] Group 4: China Macro Strategy - Domestic demand is under pressure, with new home sales in 30 major cities down 34.2% year-on-year, and average prices in 33 cities falling by 17.2% year-to-date [6] - External demand remains resilient, with cargo throughput increasing by 8.4% week-on-week, while container throughput slightly declined by 0.3% [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a stable liquidity environment through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF [7] Group 5: A-shares and Hong Kong Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% and the ChiNext Index by 1.86%, driven by improved domestic policy expectations and a recovery in overseas markets [9] - The outlook for A-shares remains positive, with liquidity being a key driver, despite current economic data showing weakness [9] - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from liquidity easing and profit improvements, with a high probability of rebound in the Hang Seng Index and technology sector [10]

Overview of Autoimmune Diseases - Autoimmune diseases are characterized by the immune system's response to its own antigens, leading to tissue damage, with over 100 known types categorized into systemic and organ-specific diseases [2][7] - These diseases are often incurable and can be life-threatening, requiring long-term medication and incurring high treatment costs [10] Drug Development History - The traditional immunosuppressants have significant side effects, and the introduction of TNF-a inhibitors in 1998 marked the beginning of a targeted therapy era, leading to an explosion of innovative drugs [3][12] - The global autoimmune drug market reached $132.3 billion in 2022, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.2% from 2022 to 2030, potentially reaching nearly $20 billion in China by 2030 [3][18] Market Potential and Drug Trends - Approximately 7.6% to 9.4% of the global population suffers from autoimmune diseases, with some conditions affecting over 100 million people [3][16] - The global market for autoimmune drugs is dominated by biologics, which accounted for $96.4 billion (72.9%) of the total market in 2022, expected to grow to $176.7 billion by 2030 [18] Emerging Opportunities in Domestic Market - The domestic market for autoimmune drugs is still in its early stages, with a market size growing from $2 billion in 2018 to $2.9 billion in 2022, and expected to reach nearly $20 billion by 2030 [18] - The introduction of innovative domestic drugs is anticipated to accelerate post-2024, with several products expected to launch [31] Heavyweight Products in Autoimmune Drug Market - Autoimmune drugs are prevalent among the top 100 best-selling drugs globally, second only to oncology drugs, indicating a strong market presence [23][25] - Notable products include AbbVie's adalimumab, which has generated over $200 billion in sales from 2012 to 2022, and other drugs like risankizumab and dupilumab showing significant sales growth [25][27] Targeted Therapies and Innovations - The main domestic targets for autoimmune drugs include TNF-a, JAK inhibitors, and interleukins, with a focus on innovative therapies such as TYK2 inhibitors and bispecific antibodies [4][29] - The development of TYK2 inhibitors is gaining momentum due to their improved safety profile compared to earlier JAK inhibitors, with several products in advanced clinical stages [48][52] Conclusion - The autoimmune disease market presents substantial growth opportunities driven by increasing patient populations, innovative drug development, and a shift towards targeted therapies, particularly in the domestic market [3][18][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in cross-border e-commerce fulfillment models from direct mail small packages to overseas warehouses, driven by the cancellation of "de minimis" tax exemptions in various countries, particularly the U.S. This transition is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in cross-border logistics, with a projected market size of 350 billion yuan in the next three years [2][12][20]. Group 1: Fulfillment Model Transition - The fulfillment model is transitioning from direct mail small packages to overseas warehouses due to the loss of tax exemption advantages [2][12]. - Overseas warehouses offer significant advantages over direct mail in terms of product coverage, fulfillment speed, cross-border transport costs, and after-sales service [2][17]. - The market for overseas warehouse fulfillment is expected to reach 350 billion yuan in the next three years, with a projected package volume of 8.2 billion by 2024 [20][24]. Group 2: Market Focus Shift - The focus of the market is shifting from the U.S. to non-U.S. markets due to increased tariffs and the cancellation of tax exemptions, which could affect about one-third of China's cross-border e-commerce exports [2][39]. - Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East are expected to experience rapid growth, providing a new foundation for China's cross-border e-commerce exports [2][39]. - The overall e-commerce penetration rate is increasing globally, with significant growth potential in emerging markets [44][47]. Group 3: Payment and Settlement Innovations - Cross-border e-commerce payment and settlement are evolving towards multi-channel approaches that reduce costs and improve efficiency [3]. - Third-party payment solutions are becoming increasingly important by connecting directly to local payment networks and creating virtual accounts to lower fees [3]. - Blockchain technology and stablecoins are emerging as new payment methods, presenting both opportunities and challenges for cross-border e-commerce [3]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - The "Four Little Dragons" of cross-border e-commerce (Temu, SHEIN, AliExpress, TikTok) are promoting a semi-managed model that leverages overseas warehouses to enhance fulfillment efficiency [25][26]. - The Chinese government is continuously supporting the construction and optimization of overseas warehouses, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing cross-border e-commerce logistics [29][30]. - The market concentration of overseas warehouse suppliers is expected to increase, with third-party warehouses dominating the market [31][32].

Group 1: U.S. Macro Strategy - The U.S. job market shows signs of stabilization, with initial jobless claims falling to 216,000, below seasonal levels, and continuing claims at 1.96 million, indicating a steady high level [2] - Market optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is rising, with expectations for a December rate cut supported by recent comments from voting members [2][3] - The dollar is facing downward pressure due to the return of rate cut trading and potential changes in Fed leadership, with expectations that it will remain within the 96-101 range [3] Group 2: Chinese Macro Strategy - The manufacturing PMI for November is at 49.2%, indicating a slight increase, while the non-manufacturing index shows a decline, particularly in the service sector [6] - Real estate transactions continue to decline, with new home sales down 31.7% and second-hand home sales down 14.8% in major cities [6] - Industrial profits have turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, reflecting weak recovery momentum and significant fluctuations in profit growth [8] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - A new policy document aimed at enhancing consumer goods supply and demand compatibility has been issued, targeting significant growth in specific sectors by 2027 and 2030 [9] - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support through increased MLF and reverse repos, indicating a focus on long-term liquidity [10] - The bond market is experiencing volatility, with a slight increase in 10-year treasury yields, but expectations of a stable interest rate environment due to weak economic data [11][12] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market saw a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.4% and the ChiNext Index up 4.5%, driven by renewed Fed rate cut expectations [12] - The Hong Kong stock market also rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index up 2.5%, supported by similar factors as the A-share market [13] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, benefiting from liquidity expectations and the ongoing AI wave [13]