Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions and monetary policy changes, particularly focusing on the implications for gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, and the stock market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The market experienced significant volatility last week, with the dollar dropping sharply due to rumors of potential intervention by Japan and the U.S., leading to a surge in gold prices, which approached $5,600 per ounce [2]. - Following the denial of intervention rumors and the nomination of Waller as the next Fed Chair, the dollar rebounded, causing gold to drop sharply, with a single-day decline exceeding 9% [2]. - The U.S. Treasury market remains stable, with the 10-year Treasury yield rebounding to 4.2-4.3%, highlighting the value of mid-term bonds over long-term ones [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market saw a slight increase, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.3% while the Nasdaq fell by 0.2%, influenced by tech giants facing challenges due to high AI investment and supply chain constraints [3]. - The article suggests that the U.S. stock market is consolidating its fundamentals, preparing for the next upward movement, supported by strong corporate earnings across various sectors [3]. - Despite high valuation levels limiting expansion, robust corporate earnings are expected to drive the market back into a bullish trend [3]. Group 3: Currency and Gold Analysis - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a gradual appreciation due to the divergence in monetary policies between China and the U.S., alongside a significant trade surplus projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025 [4]. - Short-term adjustments in gold prices are anticipated, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued monetary easing by the Fed [5]. - The article emphasizes that gold will likely remain a preferred safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties and that institutional demand for gold is still not at peak levels [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the A-share market is primarily driven by external liquidity shocks and internal capital withdrawal, with a significant impact from the hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve chairman [2]. Group 1: Market Decline Reasons - The core trigger for the market drop is the hawkish expectation of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, leading to a global liquidity repricing [2]. - The A-share market, which has been largely liquidity-driven since the bull market began on September 24, 2024, is particularly sensitive to changes in policy expectations [2]. - Domestic factors, including reduced leverage by exchanges and significant ETF redemptions, have further suppressed market sentiment, with a record net redemption of 780 billion yuan in January [2]. Group 2: A-share Market Outlook - The current pricing of the A-share market reflects a certain bias against the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with expectations that the new chairman will balance interest rate cuts with the realities of dollar liquidity [3]. - As the market approaches a reasonable valuation, regulatory goals for cooling the market will likely be achieved, leading to a potential shift towards more positive policy [3]. - Historical patterns suggest a strong likelihood of a spring rally between the Lunar New Year and the Two Sessions, with a historical probability of around 90% for market gains during this period [3]. - Defensive attributes are expected from undervalued domestic assets during periods of external volatility, as evidenced by the resilience of banking and food and beverage sectors [3]. - Following stabilization of market sentiment, there is potential for continued investment in AI technology and overseas manufacturing, alongside increased allocation to high-dividend sectors like banking and consumer goods to enhance portfolio resilience [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, which saw a monthly increase of 28% and approached $5,600 per ounce, was followed by a sharp decline of nearly 10%, dropping below $5,100, primarily due to an overheated market driven by heightened risk aversion stemming from geopolitical tensions and economic policies [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Drop - The core reason for the recent drop in gold prices is the extreme overheating of the market, with speculative funds motivated to take profits as volatility approached historical highs [2]. - As of January 29, the volatility of gold ETFs reached 46.02, nearing the pandemic peak of 48.98, indicating a potential for market correction [2]. - The monthly increase in gold prices exceeding 20% is a rare occurrence, having only happened eight times since 1968, suggesting that the current price surge is unsustainable and could lead to significant fluctuations [2]. Group 2: Outlook for Gold Market - In the short term, the market may continue to experience adjustments following the extreme one-sided price movements, and investors are advised to remain cautious of market volatility [6]. - In the medium to long term, the fundamental logic supporting gold remains strong, with expectations that prices could challenge $6,500 per ounce due to ongoing geopolitical instability and the weakening of the dollar's credit [6][7]. - The current bull market narrative differs significantly from the past two decades, focusing more on the reconstruction of dollar credit and global order, with price movements resembling those seen during the 1970-1974 gold bull market [7][8].

Asset Allocation Recommendations - The article provides a detailed asset allocation table indicating the monthly trends and recommendations for various asset classes over the next six months. The recommendations include high allocation for cash and certain equity sectors, while suggesting lower allocations for others like commodities and certain bonds [9][10]. Investment Strategy Suggestions - The investment strategy table outlines specific recommendations for different asset categories, emphasizing a balanced approach. It suggests maintaining cash positions while considering stable low-risk financial products and short-term bond funds. For equities, it highlights a focus on A-shares and sectors benefiting from AI and manufacturing [10]. U.S. Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is described as being in a state of "overheating expansion," with projected GDP growth rates significantly above market expectations. The article notes a potential GDP annualized growth of 5.4% by Q4 2025, driven by strong consumer spending, investment, and exports [12][13][14][15]. Employment and Labor Market - The unemployment rate in the U.S. is reported to have peaked, with a slight decline to 4.4% in December 2025. However, job growth remains weak, with non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs in December, indicating a mismatch in the labor market [18][22]. Inflation Trends - U.S. inflation is described as being stable, with the CPI recorded at 2.7% in December 2025. Factors contributing to this stability include weak durable goods consumption and a focus on managing oil prices. The article warns of potential inflation risks stemming from increased capital expenditures related to AI [27][28]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate cuts is highlighted, with indications that future decisions will depend on economic data. The article discusses the political pressures faced by the Fed and the potential implications of upcoming leadership changes [28][29][34]. International Economic Focus: Japan - The article shifts focus to Japan, where political instability and proposed tax cuts are raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. The potential impact of these policies on Japan's credit rating and financial markets is discussed [39][44]. Commodity Market Insights - The article discusses the outlook for commodities, particularly gold, which is expected to remain in a bull market due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing monetary policy support. However, it also cautions about potential short-term volatility [69][70]. Chinese Economic Performance - China's economy is reported to have successfully completed its 14th Five-Year Plan, with GDP surpassing 140 trillion yuan and a nominal growth rate of 4%. The article notes a strong contribution from net exports, while domestic demand remains weak [75][79].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the meeting on January 28, 2026, signaling a cautious approach amid stabilizing inflation and labor market conditions [1][3]. Economic: Dual Risk Improvement - The U.S. economy showed strong performance in Q4 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending. Indicators such as the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims suggest stabilization in the labor market [3]. - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, leading to a peak in the unemployment rate, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts [3]. - Despite improvements, risks of "no job expansion" remain due to past over-hiring, slowed net immigration, and general economic uncertainty, although productivity gains support economic stability [3]. Policy: Data Dependency, Holding Steady - The decision to pause rate cuts received broad support, with only two dissenting votes from the minority faction. The current rate is viewed as at the upper end of the neutral range, indicating low necessity for further cuts [5]. - Powell avoided discussing political pressures during the press conference and emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence [5]. Outlook: Caution on Rate Cut Expectations - The Trump administration's push for monetary easing could reignite rate cut expectations, with a significant chance of the policy rate falling below 3% within the year [6]. - The administration is also advocating for lower credit card rates and increased purchases of mortgage-backed securities to reduce mortgage rates, potentially applying more pressure on the Federal Reserve [6]. Strategy: Market Expectations Slightly Dovish - The market reacted mildly to the Fed's decision to maintain rates, initially responding to a hawkish statement but later balancing out due to Powell's more neutral tone [7]. - The U.S. Treasury yields flattened, with the 2-year at 3.57%, 5-year at 3.83%, 10-year at 4.24%, and 30-year at 4.86%. The dollar index rose slightly by 0.13% to 96.344 [7]. - The market sentiment remains stable and cautious, with expectations for short-term Treasury GC repos to maintain a range-bound oscillation [7].

Group 1: Global Macro Strategy - The geopolitical tensions are escalating, with the probability of U.S. military strikes against Iran reaching 62% in Q1 [2] - U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded to 4.2-4.3%, with a reasonable expectation of less than two rate cuts this year [2] - The U.S. dollar is under pressure due to de-dollarization trends and interventions in the yen, but the U.S. economy shows resilience, supporting a long-term view of the dollar [2] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate moderately, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials and stable demand for currency exchange [3] - Gold prices are anticipated to continue rising, potentially challenging $5,500, driven by ongoing Fed rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts [3] Group 3: Domestic Macro Strategy - In terms of domestic demand, housing transaction prices are performing better than volumes, with a 38.6% year-on-year decline in new home transactions [5] - Export performance remains resilient, with container throughput increasing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating strong demand for machinery and automotive products [7] - The government is advancing the construction of a unified national market, with new regulations aimed at reducing "involution" in government procurement [8] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with 10Y Treasury yields projected to range between 1.8% and 1.95% [9] - Recent liquidity conditions are favorable, with the central bank indicating room for rate cuts, suggesting potential opportunities in the bond market [9] Group 5: Equity Market Performance - The A-share market saw a 0.83% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, with a structural slow bull market driven by improving fundamentals and AI trends [10] - The Hong Kong stock market underperformed compared to A-shares, influenced by geopolitical tensions and lower liquidity [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses six fiscal and financial support policies aimed at stimulating private investment and promoting consumer spending, utilizing tools such as fiscal interest subsidies, financing guarantees, and risk-sharing mechanisms to lower financing costs for enterprises and reduce the consumption burden on residents [1][2]. Policy Content: Three Additions and Three Optimizations - Three new policies include: - Implementation of interest subsidy policy for loans to small and micro enterprises, with a 1.5% annualized subsidy for fixed asset loans, capped at 50 million per entity, focusing on key industries such as new energy vehicles and pharmaceuticals [2]. - Establishment of a special guarantee plan for private investment, with a total amount of 500 billion over two years, supporting loans for equipment purchases and business upgrades, including mid-sized enterprises for the first time [2]. - Creation of a risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, providing credit enhancement support and loss compensation for bond issuances [3]. - Three optimized policies include: - Expansion of the equipment update loan interest subsidy policy to include more sectors and extend the support period, maintaining a 1.5% subsidy [4]. - Extension of the service industry loan interest subsidy policy until December 31, 2026, increasing the loan cap from 1 million to 10 million [4]. - Optimization of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, extending the support period and including credit card installment payments, with a 1% subsidy rate [4]. Policy Effectiveness: Expanding Demand and Credit Expansion - The fiscal interest subsidies are expected to significantly increase in scale from 60-90 billion in 2025 to 1,000-1,300 billion in 2026, with specific allocations for small and micro enterprises, equipment updates, service industry loans, and personal consumption loans [6][8]. - The combination of fiscal interest subsidies and fiscal subsidies is anticipated to effectively stimulate investment and consumption, with a notable impact on sectors like equipment upgrades and durable consumer goods [7][8]. Credit Impact: Demand Release and Differentiated Effects - The policy is expected to improve financing willingness and release credit demand, with differing effects between enterprises and residents [9]. - For enterprises, the policy is projected to significantly boost medium and long-term loans, with estimated savings of 1.75% in financing costs due to combined interest subsidies and structural policy rate cuts [10]. - For residents, despite the expanded support for non-housing consumption loans, conservative financial behavior may limit the effectiveness of the policy, leading to a focus on refinancing existing high-interest loans rather than increasing new loans [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the US stock, bond, and currency markets, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and fiscal policies on financial conditions, particularly the concerns surrounding the de-dollarization trend and its potential effects on global markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On January 20, the US markets experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping over 2%, the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 6 basis points to 4.3%, and the dollar depreciating while gold prices surged past $4,800, reaching a historical high [1]. - The overseas long-term bond market also faced pressure, with the 30-year US Treasury yield increasing by 8 basis points to over 4.9%, and the 30-year Japanese bond yield rising by 10 basis points above 3.5% [1]. Group 2: Causes of Market Turmoil - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland, have reignited fears of de-dollarization, leading to concerns about potential asset sell-offs by European investors, who currently hold approximately $17 trillion in assets, including $3.6 trillion in US Treasuries [3][4]. - Historical precedents indicate that similar market fears have previously led to significant sell-offs of US debt, particularly during the "reciprocal tariffs" period in April 2025, where both official and private sectors reduced their holdings of US Treasuries [4]. Group 3: Fiscal Policies and Their Implications - Japan's fiscal policy is shifting towards "undisciplined expansion," raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as the government plans to dissolve the House of Representatives and suspend food consumption taxes for two years [7]. - The Bank of Japan's tightening measures, in response to internal and external pressures, are expected to exacerbate risks in Japanese bonds and have spillover effects on overseas long-term bond markets [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The de-dollarization trend is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend, with the potential for market conditions to stabilize if geopolitical tensions ease [8][9]. - In the stock market, while rising long-term bond yields and increased risk aversion may pressure US equities in the short term, the core support for US stock growth remains strong, driven by earnings growth and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [10]. - For the bond market, US Treasury yields are expected to revert to a downward trend following short-term fluctuations, with a recommendation to focus on 2-5 year maturities due to their relative certainty compared to long-term bonds [10]. - The dollar is anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 96-101, influenced by mixed economic signals, while gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over dollar credibility [11].

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown stability with a slight upward trend in interest rates, while the stock market has experienced fluctuations. The overall economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with monetary policy expected to stay accommodative, limiting the upward pressure on interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, various bond products have achieved positive returns, with the highest being the rights-embedded bond funds at 1.53%, followed by medium to long-term bond funds at 0.16%, and short bond funds at 0.14% [3][4]. - The performance of cash management products and high-grade interbank certificates of deposit remained stable, with returns of 0.09% and 0.14% respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Market Review - The bond market has experienced a phase of slight fluctuations, influenced by stock market volatility and increased long-term bond supply. The central bank's continued accommodative monetary policy is expected to limit the upward movement of interest rates [8][19]. - The short-term funding rates have shown seasonal increases, while medium to long-term rates have remained stable, with AAA interbank certificate rates averaging 1.59% for 3-month and 1.64% for 1-year [8][19]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to experience slight weakness in the short term, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.8% and 2.0%. The yield curve is likely to remain steep due to various economic factors [19][29]. - Credit bonds are expected to maintain stability, with low credit spreads, particularly in the medium to short-duration segments, as liquidity conditions remain favorable [20][29]. Group 4: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with major indices experiencing gains followed by slight pullbacks. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 6.0%, while the Shenzhen 300 and ChiNext indices rose by 3.3% and 5.8% respectively [17][19]. Group 5: Regulatory Developments - New public fund sales regulations were introduced, focusing on reducing fees and promoting longer-term investments, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the bond market [25][26]. - The new REITs regulations aim to support the high-quality development of commercial real estate, with a focus on expanding supply and improving market processes [25][26].

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy continues to show strong overall performance with a projected real GDP annual growth rate of 5.3% by Q4 2025, driven by service consumption, intellectual property investment, and exports [2] - The CPI inflation rate for December 2025 is reported at 2.7%, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI inflation is slightly lower at 2.6%, indicating a trend towards inflation differentiation [2] - The labor market is stabilizing, with initial jobless claims at 198,000, suggesting that the unemployment cycle may have peaked [3] Group 2: Financial Markets - US Treasury yields are expected to face short-term pressure due to potential tariff increases by Trump, but the long-term trend remains downward as the interest rate cycle continues [3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced declines of 0.4% and 0.7% respectively, primarily due to persistent inflation concerns impacting high-valuation tech stocks [3] - The dollar is in a mixed state, supported by resilient employment and retail data, but facing potential credit concerns due to renewed tariff threats [4] Group 3: Chinese Economic Insights - Domestic housing transactions remain low, with new home sales down 41.5% and second-hand home sales down 18.6% in major cities [7] - Export activity shows signs of recovery, with a 3.1% increase in cargo throughput and a 5.5% rebound in container throughput, indicating a positive trend in mechanical and automotive exports [7] - Corporate financing is improving, with a year-on-year increase of 580 billion in corporate loans, contributing to a stable credit growth rate of 6.4% [8] Group 4: Policy and Market Strategies - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting consumption through various initiatives, including a new round of subsidies for consumer goods [9] - The bond market is experiencing slight recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.84%, and expectations of continued support from monetary policy [10] - The A-share market is expected to slow down after a significant rally, with a focus on technology and manufacturing sectors as key growth drivers [11]