Core Viewpoints - The development of Integrated Power Systems (IPS) is driven by the dual forces of military-civilian integration and the green shipping revolution, emphasizing environmental protection, economic efficiency, and technological performance improvements [1][28]. Group 1: Development Trends - The IPS technology has expanded into civilian applications since the 2000s, with a focus on direct current (DC) networking and electric propulsion becoming dominant [1][4]. - The IPS consists of two main components: the energy system and the electric propulsion system, with the energy system evolving to support multiple energy sources, including traditional fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and renewables [5][7]. Group 2: System Architecture - The architecture of electric propulsion ships has fundamentally restructured the power and energy systems, focusing on four key areas: switching power sources, upgrading energy transmission, transforming propulsion methods, and integrating shore power systems [2][48]. - The transition from traditional mechanical propulsion to electric propulsion is accelerating, with electric propulsion systems offering significant advantages in efficiency and environmental impact [19][34]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - China, as the world's largest shipping nation and second-largest shipbuilding country, is in a catch-up phase in the IPS field, with European giants currently holding nearly 50% of the global market share [2][3]. - Chinese companies are making substantial progress in core technologies, with notable advancements in key product development and engineering applications [2][3]. Group 4: Business Opportunities - The acceleration of Chinese enterprises in the IPS sector presents significant business opportunities, driven by the need for green transformation in the shipping industry [3][34]. - The market for shipborne generators and electric motors is experiencing steady growth, with the shipborne generator market in China projected to reach 48 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 7.5% year-on-year [51][70].

Group 1: Economic Overview - The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 2.6% annualized GDP growth for Q2, down 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [2] - Employment data indicates a divergence from economic trends, with initial jobless claims decreasing to 233,000, below seasonal levels, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [2] - Long-term inflation expectations have slightly increased, with the 5-year breakeven inflation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4% [3] Group 2: US Market Reactions - The US stock market rose by 1.7% due to stronger-than-expected employment data, alleviating concerns about economic slowdown from trade policy uncertainties [3] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts has diminished, with expectations returning to two cuts of 50 basis points, and the probability of a July cut dropping to zero [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain high volatility, with strategies suggesting a focus on short to medium-term US bonds [4] Group 3: China Economic Insights - China's economic growth is projected at approximately 5.2% for Q2, with June manufacturing PMI at 49.7, indicating a slight contraction [6] - Real estate investment is expected to decline significantly, with cumulative growth projected to drop to -11.2% due to seasonal factors and high base effects from last year [6] - External demand for Chinese exports may recover, aided by the easing of trade restrictions with the US and a rebound in US import demand [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic market is influenced by the central government's focus on "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to lead to significant policy announcements in the second half of the year [8] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 1.4%, driven by strong performance in banking and sectors benefiting from supply-side reforms [10] - The bond market experienced slight gains, with a balanced outlook expected in the short term, while potential policy adjustments could increase market volatility [9] Group 5: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the medium term due to concerns over US debt sustainability and rising uncertainties from tariff suspensions [4] - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to maintain a neutral trend, influenced by both positive and negative factors in the trade environment [4] - Gold prices may experience short-term fluctuations but are expected to have strong medium-term support due to ongoing central bank purchases [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data for June exceeded market expectations, indicating a robust labor market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions [1][4][12]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 106,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.1%, against the expected 4.3% [1][4]. - The labor participation rate fell to 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4% [1]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8% [1]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of a mild cooling trend, with private sector job growth slowing significantly to 74,000 in June, down from 134,000 in May [8]. - The government sector saw an unexpected increase of 73,000 jobs, influenced by seasonal factors, particularly in state and local government employment [8][10]. - Wage growth is also slowing, with average hourly earnings growth down to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a potential softening of persistent inflation [8][12]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials (doves vs. hawks) may lead to varied interpretations of the employment data, impacting future interest rate decisions [1][12]. - The neutral interest rate is estimated to have reached 3.5%, with the ongoing debate primarily affecting the timing of reaching this neutral rate rather than its overall shape [1][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to buy U.S. Treasuries on dips and short the U.S. dollar on rallies, as the market reacts to the strong employment data [2][13][14]. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened, with significant increases in yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in market expectations [13]. - The dollar index has shown a slight increase, but the long-term trend remains downward, influenced by various economic factors [14].

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins are a strategic battleground for national digital financial discourse, serving as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto economy, especially in the context of emerging regulations in the EU, the US, and Hong Kong [1][5][10]. Group 1: Stablecoin Mechanism and Application Scenarios - Stablecoins are categorized into three types based on their anchoring mechanisms: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic, with fiat-collateralized stablecoins dominating the market [2][19]. - The stablecoin market exhibits a "one super, one strong, and a hundred flowers blooming" pattern, with USDT and USDC together accounting for 86% of the market share [2][36]. - Stablecoins are utilized in various scenarios including DeFi ecosystems, RWA transactions, value storage, cross-border payments, and retail payments, providing functions such as pricing benchmarks and real-time settlement [2][63]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Systems - Stablecoins pose significant implications for banking systems, affecting currency status, central bank policy tools, and potentially leading to systemic disturbances [3][9]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - Recent regulatory frameworks in the US and Hong Kong mark a turning point for stablecoin development, emphasizing the need for compliance and stability in the financial system [5][10]. - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" introduces a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, focusing on strict entry requirements, robust reserve management, and unconditional redemption [13][14]. Group 4: Comparison of Regulatory Models - The regulatory approaches in Hong Kong, the US, and the EU differ significantly, with Hong Kong emphasizing openness and compatibility, the US reinforcing the dominance of the dollar, and the EU pursuing unity and security [16][18]. - The regulatory frameworks aim to balance financial stability and innovation while protecting investors and maintaining the integrity of financial markets [17][18]. Group 5: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - As of June 2025, the stablecoin market exceeds $250 billion, with USDT and USDC leading the market, accounting for 62% and 24% of the total market share, respectively [36][39]. - The market is characterized by a high degree of concentration, with USDT being the largest stablecoin by market cap, followed by USDC, which has gained traction due to its compliance and transparency [40][41].

Development History and Market Size - The development of domestic games going overseas has gone through four key stages: pre-2012 trial in Southeast Asia with PC games; 2012-2018 explosion of SLG mobile games; post-2018 entry into a full-category era; and 2024 marked by the release of a landmark AAA title, "Black Myth: Wukong," leading a new phase of cultural export [1][6][21] - By 2024, China's self-developed games' overseas revenue reached $18.557 billion, accounting for approximately 11% of the global market share, demonstrating strong growth momentum [1][5][21] Regional Market Structure - The global market shows a "core stable volume, emerging incremental" pattern, with the US, Japan, and South Korea contributing 57.27% of revenue, but with divergent growth rates (South Korea growing rapidly, the US stagnating) [1][6] - Europe has become the "fourth pole" market with a scale of €24.5 billion, while Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America represent significant emerging incremental markets [1][6][21] Hardware Ecosystem and Cultural Preferences - The share of mobile games in China (73.13%) is significantly higher than the global average (52.25%), leading to a focus on mobile games for overseas expansion, with potential opportunities in console games in the future [2][7] - Game type preferences are heavily influenced by regional cultures: the US leads in gambling games (28.9% revenue), Europe prefers SLG (33.7%), and Japan dominates in RPGs (52% share) [2][7] Industry Chain Collaboration and Corporate Strategies - The overseas industry chain has formed a three-layer system of "R&D-localization-channels," with companies possessing full-chain capabilities adopting a "R&D-operation integration" model, retaining over 70% of revenue [3][6] - Leading companies like Tencent and NetEase diversify their product lines to mitigate risks, while others like Lilith focus on vertical tracks, with single products contributing over 80% of revenue [3][6] Business Models and Emerging Opportunities - Product positioning determines the profit model, with high-cost projects relying on direct user payments, while lighter games bind deeply with traffic platforms for ad monetization [3][6] - To break growth bottlenecks, companies need to focus on emerging markets (Southeast Asia's user base, Middle East's payment power, and Latin America's casual gaming demand) and localize deeply [3][6] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The game export process is now seen as a key pillar of digital trade globalization, with significant financial service opportunities arising from the robust demand in mature markets like the US, Japan, and South Korea, as well as emerging markets [5][6] - Future trends include the export of high-quality "flagship products," capital outflows through mergers and acquisitions, and the export of a complete soft and hardware ecosystem [5][6][27]

海外经济：降息预期升温 长端利率上行的限制性作用逐渐发酵，美国地产投资加速收缩，经济动能整体趋弱。亚特兰大联储GDPNOW 模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速回落0.5pct至2.9%，其中地产投资增速再下行1.2pct至-5.4%，建筑投资 增速再下行0.1pct至-3.5%。 尽管经济动能趋弱，但美国就业形势依然稳健。周频首次申领失业金人数回落1.0万至23.6万，符合季节性水 平。 中东局势缓和，油价见顶回落，通胀压力边际缓解。墨西哥湾/纽约港汽油价格较前期高点回落约10%，逼近 伊以冲突爆发前的水平。 财政政策保持扩张立场。《大而美法案》以51:49通过参议院程序性动议投票。周频财政盈余$737亿，符合季 节性水平，趋势上仍然强于历史同期。 货币政策边际转鸽，市场降息预期升温。以理事沃勒和副主席鲍曼为首的少数鸽派继续重申7月降息立场，以 鲍威尔主席为首的多数谨慎派表态亦有转向，如若情况合适将对提前降息持开放态度。 海外策略：风险偏好上升 上周影响海外市场走势的逻辑有两条：一是美联储降息预期升温。二是伊以停火。在此背景下，美债利率、美 元、黄金均明显回调，人民币略有升值。 美股方面，上周美股上涨2.9 ...

招商银行研究院继续分章节为您推送《逆风前行——2025年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望》 本篇为文章第四、五部分， 中国宏观：迎风搏浪，攻坚克难；中国策略：利率低波震荡，权益底线抬升。 全文推送完毕。 ■ 财政政策或由加速转向加力。 今年财政总量空间明显扩张，上半年财政积极落实预算安排， 前置发力，融资进度高，支出增长快。下半年随着关税冲击逐步显现，财政政策或相机加力，推 出5,000-10,000亿增量工具，并优化一揽子化债方案。中央财政将更多"加杠杆"，畅通政策传 导，推动地方财政重回扩张。 ■ 货币政策将兼顾"四重平衡"，维持"适度宽松"。 一方面，在经济内外部挑战上升的背景下， 实际利率居于高位，意味着未来一段时间"宽松"仍是我国货币政策的主基调。另一方面，名义利 率 处 于 低 位 ， 表 明 货 币 宽 松 需 要 " 适 度 " ， 珍 惜 宝 贵 的 利 率 政 策 空 间 。 下 半 年 7 天 逆 回 购 利 率 与 LPR或进一步调降10bp，降准1次，幅度50bp。货币政策结构性工具加码的确定性高于总量工 具，量的扩容重于价的调降。 ■ 资本市场底线抬升，向上空间有待打开。 看境内市场，资 ...

招商银行研究院将分章节为您推送《 逆风前行——2025年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望 》 本篇为文章第二、三部分， 海外宏观：韧性依旧，隐忧尚存；海外策略：中短美债占优，美股均衡配置。 更多精彩之后将陆续推送，敬请期待。 ■ 关税变局不断演变，我国经济挑战与机遇并存。 外需支撑或显著减退，内需能否稳固支撑是决定经济 动能变化的关键。基准情形下，预计全年实际GDP增长5%，GDP平减指数或下探至-1%。在供给端，企业 生产和利润温和承压。在需求端，出口增速显著放缓，消费对经济增长的贡献或有增强，房地产投资的拖 累或因体量收缩而边际减弱，基建投资维持高位，制造业投资温和放缓。经济运行或继续呈现供强需弱格 局，价格修复相应承压。 ■ 看境外市场， 去美元化逻辑或继续演绎，美股有望震荡上行，美债利率中枢维持高位，黄金 强者恒强，外汇市场或延续"美元弱，非美强"格局。 相关报告 《逆风前行——2025年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望①》 正文 海外宏观：韧性依旧，隐忧尚存 上半年，特朗普政府"削减政府开支+对等关税"组合拳扰动预期，市场一度担忧美国经济陷入衰退甚至滞胀， 美联储将于年内降息5次（125bp）。随着财政政策重回 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to show resilience supported by fiscal expansion, but this may lead to higher inflation and interest rates, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy stance [1][2] - China's economy faces both challenges and opportunities due to evolving tariff dynamics, with a projected GDP growth of 5% for the year and a potential decline in the GDP deflator index to -1% [1][2] - The economic environment is characterized by strong supply but weak demand, leading to price pressures [1][2] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is anticipated to shift from acceleration to strengthening, with an expected increase in fiscal tools by 500-1,000 billion yuan to support local finances [2][3] - Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [2][3] Group 3: Capital Market Dynamics - The domestic capital market is expected to see a gradual decline in bond yields, while A-shares may stabilize but lack upward momentum [3] - The international market is likely to continue the trend of de-dollarization, with U.S. equities expected to experience volatility [3] Group 4: Economic Predictions - China's GDP growth is forecasted to remain at 5.0% for 2025, with nominal GDP growth projected at 4.0% [4] - Key economic indicators such as retail sales and fixed asset investment are expected to show varied growth rates, with retail sales projected to grow by 4.8% [4] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategy - Recommendations for asset allocation suggest a focus on A-shares, particularly in consumer and cyclical sectors, while advising against exposure to U.S. equities [5] - Fixed income strategies favor Chinese government bonds, while U.S. dollar-denominated assets are recommended for low allocation [5] Group 6: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S.-China tariff situation has seen a significant reduction, with current tariffs approximately 41% compared to pre-trade war levels [7][8] - Future negotiations may lead to further tariff reductions, but risks of tariff increases remain [12][14] Group 7: U.S. Macroeconomic Conditions - The U.S. economy is experiencing steady growth despite high inflation concerns, with GDP growth projected to be stable [17][18] - Fiscal policies are shifting towards expansion, with a potential fiscal deficit rate above 6% [30] Group 8: De-dollarization Trends - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining attention, with a notable decline in the dollar's share in global reserves from 73% to 58% since 2001 [90] - Factors contributing to this trend include increased competition from non-U.S. currencies and the impact of U.S. financial sanctions [90]

Economic Overview - The internal momentum of the US economy is weakening, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 0.4 percentage point decline in Q2 real GDP growth to 3.4% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in the services sector [2] - Private investment growth (excluding inventory) has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%, with significant contractions in real estate (-4.4%) and construction (-3.4%) [2] - The job market remains stable, with weekly initial jobless claims falling by 0.3 thousand to 245 thousand, aligning with seasonal levels [2] - The worsening situation in the Middle East is increasing inflationary pressures, as indicated by the Truflation daily inflation index rising by 8 basis points to 2.14% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal surplus of $18.5 billion, which is weaker than seasonal levels but stronger than historical averages [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained a wait-and-see stance during the June meeting, with the dot plot indicating that 7 out of 18 members do not expect rate cuts this year [3] Market Performance - Overseas markets showed muted performance last week, with the US dollar slightly rebounding and US Treasury yields fluctuating [4] - The US stock market was nearly flat, up 0.1%, with expectations that the most significant tariff impacts have passed, potentially leading to a renewed upward trend driven by corporate earnings resilience [4] - However, high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [4] - The strategy suggests maintaining a neutral position on US stocks with a balanced allocation [4] Chinese Economic Conditions - Domestic demand shows mixed signals, with strong automotive consumption but a slowdown in real estate transactions [6] - In June, average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 48,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home transaction volumes in 30 major cities dropping by 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The land market is also cooling, with land supply and transaction volumes decreasing [7] External Demand and Trade - High-frequency data indicates a potential slowdown in China's export growth in June, with port cargo and container throughput growth rates declining [8] - Exports to the US may have seen some recovery, while exports to non-US regions are expected to decline from previous highs [8] Fiscal Performance - In May, fiscal revenue growth slowed, with public budget revenue increasing by only 0.1% year-on-year [9] - Tax revenue growth decreased to 0.6%, while non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024 [9] - Government spending growth was also slower, with a 2.6% increase year-on-year [9] Market Strategy - The bond market is showing strength, with short-term rates performing well due to a stable funding environment [10] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with uncertainties in corporate earnings and the need for further policy support for real estate and consumption [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of correction, with high valuations and unstable fundamentals [12]