Core Viewpoint - The economic data for July indicates a slowdown in China's economy, with both supply and demand sides experiencing challenges, leading to a mixed outlook for various sectors [1][3]. Consumption - Retail sales growth in July was 3.7%, below the market expectation of 4.8%, influenced by extreme weather and other short-term factors [4][5]. - The growth rate of commodity consumption fell to 4%, with notable resilience in demand for essential goods like grain and oil (8.6%) and home appliances (28.7%) [4][5]. - Service retail sales growth slightly decreased to 5.2%, with cultural and tourism consumption supported by government subsidies [7][8]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was 1.6%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, with infrastructure investment at 7.3% and manufacturing investment at 6.2% [9][12]. - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12%, and sales volume and value of commercial housing also decreased significantly [12][14]. Import and Export - July saw better-than-expected performance in imports and exports, with export growth in dollar terms rising to 7.2%, driven by strong demand from non-US regions [18][19]. - Trade surplus expanded to $98.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [18][19]. Supply - Industrial production showed stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, supported by resilient exports and government policies [21][22]. - The service sector maintained a growth rate of 6.0%, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth [21][22]. Inflation - Price pressures remained, with CPI inflation at 0% and PPI inflation at -3.6%, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties [23][24]. Outlook - The economic outlook suggests rising uncertainties in external demand and persistent internal demand issues, with recent policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to take effect gradually [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the changes in the pricing of the 10-year government bond yield based on the monetary policy interest rate transmission framework, indicating a trend of narrowing the spread between the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate due to persistent interest rate cut expectations and a compression of long-term bond term premiums [2][41]. Group 1: Long-term Trends - The long-term trend suggests that the spread between the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate is likely to narrow, primarily due to a "re-anchoring" of the 10-year bond yield and a systematic decline in long-term bond term premiums as economic uncertainty decreases [2][41]. - The narrowing of the spread is influenced by the ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts and a compression of long-term bond term premiums, as the domestic economy transitions to a high-quality development phase with reduced volatility [6][41]. Group 2: Short-term Dynamics - In the short term, the extent of the spread's increase depends on the upward elasticity of the fundamentals, with historical data indicating that a significant widening of the spread requires confirmation of a bottom in the fundamentals and a tightening of narrow liquidity [4][41]. - Current leading indicators in the domestic economy have shown signs of recovery, but their ability to drive economic and inflation growth remains uncertain, as social financing to GDP has rebounded primarily due to low inflation affecting nominal GDP [42][41]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market's expectation of future interest rate cuts is reflected in the bond market, where the 1-year government bond yield has remained below the 7-day reverse repurchase rate since 2024, indicating a persistent expectation of rate cuts [32][41]. - The compression of term premiums is another underlying reason for the low spread between the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, driven by a consensus among market participants regarding weak expectations for income, housing prices, and inflation [37][41]. Group 4: Future Projections - It is projected that the spread between the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate will not rise significantly in the next 2-3 quarters, with expectations of only a slight increase to 40-50 basis points, and if the 7-day reverse repurchase rate is cut by 10-15 basis points, the 10-year government bond yield may fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.8% [5][46].

Core Viewpoint - The global chemical industry is undergoing significant transformation, with China rapidly rising to dominate the market while Europe faces declining competitiveness and substantial operational challenges [3][4][7]. Group 1: Global Chemical Industry Landscape - In 2023, global chemical sales reached €5.2 trillion, with China accounting for €2.2 trillion, representing a 43% market share, an increase of 9 percentage points over the past decade [9]. - The EU remains the second-largest chemical market, but its share has decreased from 16% in 2013 to 13% in 2023 [9]. - The trend of "East rising, West declining" is evident, making investment in China a consensus choice among global investors [17]. Group 2: European Chemical Industry Challenges - The chemical sector is a cornerstone of the European economy, with a trade surplus of €52 billion in 2023, but is now under severe pressure due to rising energy costs and regulatory burdens [25][29]. - The conflict in Ukraine has led to soaring natural gas prices, significantly impacting the competitiveness of European chemical producers [34]. - Approximately 11 million tons of chemical production capacity in Europe has been permanently shut down in recent years, with ongoing indications of further closures [50]. Group 3: China's Chemical Industry Growth - China's chemical production capacity continues to expand, with the country leading in basic chemical raw materials and rapidly growing in fine chemicals [4][61]. - In 2024, China's total chemical industry output is projected to reach ¥16.3 trillion, accounting for about 12% of the national industrial output [57]. - China is expected to produce over half of the world's chemical products by 2030, with capital expenditures and R&D investments leading globally at 46% and 32%, respectively [17][81]. Group 4: Investment Trends and Strategic Shifts - European chemical companies are increasingly investing in China, with BASF committing €10 billion to build an integrated production base in Zhanjiang [89]. - The shift in investment focus from Europe to Asia is evident, with major companies like BASF and INEOS adjusting their strategies to enhance competitiveness in the Chinese market [54][89]. - Cross-national companies are establishing R&D centers in China to better align with local market demands and leverage China's growing innovation capabilities [94].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the marginal recovery of the US economy, highlighting improvements in GDP growth, employment stability, inflation pressures, and market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a Q3 GDP growth rate of 2.5%, with private consumption growth at 2.0% and private investment growth at 2.5%, indicating a recovery from Q2's low [2]. - Initial jobless claims remain low at 226,000, while continuing claims are at 1.974 million, suggesting a stable employment market with limited upward pressure on the unemployment rate [2]. - Service consumption growth is forecasted at 1.9% for Q3, up from 1.4% in Q2, potentially reversing the trend of cooling service inflation [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Market sentiment is influenced by Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September and 2-3 cuts anticipated for the year [2][3]. - The bond market reflects these expectations, with US Treasury yields remaining low and limited further downside anticipated due to already priced-in rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is expected to remain stable, with limited downside as the market has largely priced in the September rate cut [5]. - Gold prices are influenced by potential tariffs on gold bars, leading to a significant price spread between New York and London gold [6]. Group 4: China's Economic Performance - China's exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year in July, with imports rising by 4.1%, indicating better-than-expected trade performance [8]. - Domestic real estate transactions are down 25.1% year-on-year, with second-hand home prices declining, reflecting ongoing pressure in the housing market [9]. Group 5: Policy Initiatives - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued guidelines to support new industrialization through financial services, focusing on innovation and supply chain resilience [10][11]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to direct financial resources towards technological innovation and brand upgrades, while monitoring credit flows to prevent risks [11]. Group 6: Market Strategy - The market shows a steady recovery in risk appetite, with both stock and bond markets experiencing slight upward movements [12]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for equities, focusing on dividend-paying sectors and technology, while maintaining a cautious approach to long-duration bonds [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that under the pressure of medical insurance policies, going overseas has become an inevitable choice for China's innovative pharmaceutical industry due to increasing aging population and limited domestic market space for innovative drugs [3][8] - The pressure on medical insurance balance is growing, with the elderly population reaching 217 million in 2023, accounting for 15.4% of the total population, leading to increased medical demand and expenditure [9][11] - The proportion of commercial insurance in medical expenses is only 6.5%, significantly lower than in countries like the US and Japan, making it difficult to support innovative drug payments in the short term [12][15] Group 2 - Despite financing pressures in the primary and secondary markets, the enthusiasm for domestic innovative drug research and development remains high, with a 11.2% year-on-year increase in clinical approvals for innovative drugs in 2024 [31][32] - In 2024, a record 39 domestic innovative drugs were approved for market launch, indicating a significant growth in the innovative drug pipeline [33][34] - The number of clinical trials for innovative drugs in China has surpassed that of the US, ranking first globally, with 1,903 trials registered in 2024 [45][49] Group 3 - The overseas market offers higher pricing and larger market space for innovative drugs, with the price of innovative drug Zebutini in China being only about 3% of its price in the US and Europe [23][25] - Japan's experience shows that innovation and going overseas are essential paths to break domestic pressures, as seen in the historical context of Japan's pharmaceutical industry [27][28] - The case of Takeda Pharmaceutical illustrates that innovation and international expansion are crucial for growth, with its revenue from the US market reaching 51.5% by 2024 [28][29] Group 4 - License out transactions are rapidly increasing, with 2024 seeing a total transaction amount exceeding $10 billion, accounting for 31.9% of heavy transactions globally [5][77] - The types of license out transactions are becoming more diverse, with emerging technologies like ADC and dual antibodies gaining traction [81][82] - The research and development stage of license out projects is shifting earlier, with 64% of products in the preclinical stage in 2024 [83][84] Group 5 - Foreign investments are gradually expanding from purchasing innovative drug products to acquiring domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies, as seen in recent acquisitions by AstraZeneca and Genmab [89][90] - The NewCo model is emerging as a new financing method, allowing domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies to split off parts of their product pipelines to attract investment [92][93]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a rational perspective on the recent non-farm payroll data, highlighting that the employment growth in the U.S. is showing signs of stagnation but should not be extrapolated linearly as a trend of cooling employment [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The non-farm payroll data for May and June was significantly revised downwards, with May adjusted from 125,000 to 19,000 and June from 133,000 to 14,000, leading to a three-month moving average of only 35,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, and wage growth is stable at 3.9%, indicating a balanced labor market despite a decrease in immigration [2]. - High-frequency indicators suggest a strengthening job market, with initial jobless claims dropping to 218,000, significantly below seasonal levels [2]. Economic Recovery Drivers - The economic recovery is supported by a return to fiscal expansion and a peak decline in long-term interest rates. The cumulative deficit over the past four weeks reached $219.8 billion, contrasting with a surplus of $56.2 billion in the previous four weeks [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 4.2% from its May peak, indicating a recovery in interest-sensitive sectors [3]. Market Reactions - The market experienced volatility, with a shift from hawkish to dovish sentiment following the disappointing non-farm payroll data, leading to a rapid increase in rate cut expectations [4]. - U.S. stock markets showed a downward trend, primarily due to the Fed's hawkish stance, although strong earnings reports from companies like Meta and Microsoft provided some support [4]. Currency and Commodity Outlook - The dollar is expected to remain low, with the market returning to a logic dominated by interest rate differentials. The anticipated Fed rate cuts could pressure the dollar further [6]. - Gold prices are supported by multiple favorable factors, including potential rate cuts and increased investor buying signals, despite being considered expensive [7]. China Economic Insights - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory at 50.1 [9]. - Export growth is under pressure, with the new export orders index at 47.1, reflecting ongoing challenges from high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [10]. - Domestic demand remains mixed, with strong growth in automotive retail but a significant decline in real estate transactions [10]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - In July, the government issued 1.25 trillion yuan in net financing, with a shift towards accelerating the issuance of special bonds [11]. - The central bank's focus is shifting towards optimizing policy implementation and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary transmission [11]. Policy Developments - The introduction of a child-rearing subsidy program is expected to impact consumer spending positively, while the "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate competition among enterprises [12]. - The announcement of a tax on bond interest income starting in 2025 is intended to balance fiscal pressures and reform tax administration [13]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in domestic bonds, with a focus on short to medium-term maturities, while also considering the potential for equity investments in sectors like consumer goods and technology [17]. - The outlook for A-shares remains cautiously optimistic, with a recommendation for balanced exposure to growth and value stocks, particularly in dividend-paying sectors [17].

Core Viewpoint - Tokenized money market funds (TMFs) represent a digital form of traditional money market funds, leveraging blockchain technology for enhanced traceability, transparency, and potential efficiency improvements. The market for TMFs in Hong Kong is expected to accelerate with the anticipated opening of secondary market trading [3][5][26]. Group 1: Understanding Tokenized Money Market Funds - TMFs are digital representations of traditional money market funds, where each token represents a share in the fund, maintaining similar underlying assets such as bonds and short-term deposits [7][8]. - The current TMFs in Hong Kong are primarily non-listed and only allow subscription and redemption in the primary market, with secondary market trading expected to be permitted within the year [8][10]. - The issuance of TMFs provides a dual distribution model, allowing participation through traditional brokers and digital asset platforms [7][8]. Group 2: Mechanism and Market Landscape - The operational mechanism of TMFs involves key participants such as tokenization service providers, custodians, and qualified distributors, ensuring compliance and security in managing tokenized assets [11][12]. - The TMF market in Hong Kong is rapidly developing, with various funds launched, including those by Bosera and Huaxia, covering multiple currencies [17][18][19]. Group 3: Comparison with Traditional Money Market Funds - The primary differences between TMFs and traditional money market funds include ownership recording methods, transparency levels, management fees, and transaction efficiency [20][21]. - TMFs utilize decentralized record-keeping via blockchain, enhancing transparency and reducing fraud risks compared to centralized systems of traditional funds [22]. - While TMFs currently have similar initial investment thresholds as traditional funds, future secondary market trading may lower these barriers [24][25]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Market Potential - The future of TMFs appears promising, driven by market demand, technological innovation, and regulatory clarity, with significant growth potential anticipated [26][27]. - The successful issuance of TMFs is expected to facilitate the connection between crypto assets and traditional financial assets, serving as a foundation for further tokenization in asset management [26][27]. - The market for TMFs is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting that tokenized products could reach $400 billion by 2030, with TMFs being a key driver [28][32].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50%, indicating limited room for future rate cuts due to the current economic conditions and political pressures [1][6]. Economic Summary - The U.S. economy is experiencing moderate slowdown, with a second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 3.0%. However, private sector momentum has significantly weakened, with private sector annualized growth dropping to 1.2%, the lowest in 2023 [4]. - Key economic challenges include a decline in construction investment (-10.3%) and residential investment (-4.6%), both sensitive to interest rates. High long-term rates are increasing costs for home purchases and real estate investments, leading to a sluggish housing market [4]. - Consumer spending growth in the second quarter was only 1.4%, which, while an improvement from the first quarter (0.5%), remains below the long-term trend of 2-3% [4]. Policy Summary - The Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate level, which is described as "moderately restrictive," suggesting limited future rate cuts. Chairman Powell has not provided clear guidance on when cuts might occur [6]. - Powell emphasized that the Fed will not be responsible for national fiscal issues and will focus on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [6][7]. Strategy Summary - Given the increasing demand for dollars and the ongoing "funding shortage," the strategy suggests buying long-term U.S. Treasuries when the 5-year yield is in the 4.05%-4.15% range and the 10-year yield is in the 4.5%-4.6% range [8]. - The recommendation is to adopt a neutral and cautious stance towards the dollar, correcting previous overly bearish sentiments [8].

Group 1: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation for cash products is to maintain a standard allocation due to stable returns, while acknowledging a long-term downward trend in yields [2] - For fixed income, the focus is on short to medium-term bonds, with an emphasis on opportunities in long-term bonds when yields rebound [2] - In equities, a balanced allocation is suggested, with a focus on dividend stocks and sectors like technology and healthcare [2] Group 2: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a decline in internal momentum, with Q2 GDP growth at 3.0%, primarily supported by a reduction in imports [4][5] - European economic conditions are improving, with fiscal policies remaining loose and inflation returning to reasonable levels, contributing to a recovery in economic sentiment [4][21] - Japan's economic outlook is mixed, with wage growth lagging behind inflation, impacting consumer spending and investment [27][31] Group 3: U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. fiscal position is tightening, leading to a decrease in disposable income and a cooling of consumer spending [9][12] - Long-term interest rates remain high, affecting investment in interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate and traditional manufacturing [12] - Despite economic cooling, the job market remains stable, with unemployment rates unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [12][14] Group 4: European Economic Recovery - The Eurozone is showing signs of resilience, with PMI indicators reflecting a rebound in both manufacturing and services sectors [21][22] - Inflation in the Eurozone is stabilizing around the ECB's target of 2%, providing confidence for the ECB to pause interest rate cuts [22] - The recent U.S.-EU trade agreement is expected to reduce uncertainty and support economic growth in the Eurozone [22] Group 5: Commodity Market Insights - Gold is expected to experience short-term fluctuations but remains a viable investment due to central bank purchases and market expectations of interest rate cuts [51] - Brent crude oil prices are projected to challenge $80 per barrel in the short term, but long-term pressures may push prices down to around $50 [56] - Copper prices may stabilize as production season approaches, following a period of price adjustments due to tariffs [56]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recruitment for a capital market research position focusing on overseas and equity markets, highlighting the need for comprehensive research capabilities and the ability to identify investment opportunities and risks [4][5][6]. Group 2 - The job responsibilities include researching overseas markets (covering fixed income, equity, foreign exchange) and A-share markets (financial, technology, consumer sectors), building a research framework, and producing asset allocation recommendations [4]. - The role also involves conducting forward-looking and comprehensive thematic/deep research, producing research reports, and completing research projects [5]. - Additionally, the position requires providing buy-side research services to internal departments and facilitating the application of research outcomes based on business needs [5][6]. Group 3 - The job requirements specify a master's degree or higher, preferably in economics or finance, with a strong foundation in macro research [8]. - Candidates should have over three years of experience in research roles at large financial institutions, with a preference for those with overseas research, banking research, or wealth management research experience [9]. - The ideal candidate should possess a passion for research, a solid methodology and framework for asset research, and excellent written and verbal communication skills [9][10].